Definite salty group and was surprised to be as low as 3-1ML, I would assume the 7 will want the lead more stretching out. The 2, although I don't think he is currently in top form, is gonna be to beat here, dropping down for a tag and back in with state breds. 5, is another who has been running against better and his race 2 back at the level looks like a live one with the 1st and 3rd place finishers coming back to win their next starts. 8, most likely has his best days behind him but certainly has the back class, hopefully he needs this one after the 9 month layoff and short work pattern. 3, might be dangerous here second time at the level and second off a layoff. As for Sanctify, Mott is concerned about the way he finished up with his head sideways which is something he thought he worked out after the first attempt on the turf. There was some experimentation with blinkers in training and I believe he settled on blinkers on just the right side, to try to straighten him out some. There were some thoughts about trying the Albany which is a relatively light field with a big purse but decided against switching back to dirt and wanted to tackle these other issues first.
Thanks for the thoughts Gandy, agree a little suspicious with the 2 being dropped for a tag especially since the West Point is on Sunday, a race he ran 2nd in last year.
Best of luck to you and your connections Lloyd. Big scratch of the 2 might put Sanctify into the role of favorite! It throws that race wide open though.
As for Wednesday's Pick 5:
Race 2 - Hard to buck the favorite #2 in here for Mott, dropping into maiden claiming, 3rd off the layoff, last effort broke poorly and dealt with some bumping and still ran at about the par speed for this level. Has been facing the best by far and running OK, the drop here should be just the ticket. #6 Status could be interesting here, 2nd time out, turning back and switching turf-dirt, moved from the Brown barn to Pat Reynolds who is sneaky good in these spots, gets the red hot Castellano on board and ran a near-bullet four furlong work last week.
Race 3 - Scratch of the 2 eliminates the class of the race and makes this the toughest race in the sequence. #7 stretching out figures to have the lead, Lezcano is a strong turf jock and DiPrima has strong ROI numbers on stretchouts and turf (A). #8 figures to press the pace and has 2013 back class that is good enough here (4 for 10 at 1 mile too), but his 9 months off at age 8 is a concern (B). #1 has struggled at this level his last three tries, but switches to Johnny V and Ryerson has a reputation for bringing home the occasional longshot (B). #6 Sanctify is still on the upswing and has no fear of facing elders (A). #4 gets a jockey upgrade as Irad Ortiz has been sensational on turf this year, and Vitali also has a +ROI with his turf starters (B). #5 hasn't won since 2012 but only missed by 2 lengths at this level two back, now drops back down to the level and gets Castellano, his PPs show he's been competitive against a lot of good horses (A). #3 will be running late and will need to work a trip, is turning back and was only 2 1/2 lengths back after fanning six wide last time. Not sure he'll see enough pace though to get there (B).
Race 4 - A tricky small field maiden claimer. The three 2nd timers ran to similar ratings, surprised to see two Pletcher's in here for the tag, with Johnny V jumping aboard the longer price. #5 showed the most early speed first out which is a plus, and was a close second two weeks ago. Of the firsters #6 looks the most likely to fire a good one, with Nicholas Esler running a +ROI for 2014 and a sharp 4 for 9 with firsters. 5,6 main, 2,3 on backups.
Race 5 - Pretty poor group of N2Ls for the Spa, with all but 3 already a failure at this level. Those three would be #2 Gingee, a loser by 22 and 23 lengths in to state-bred allowances, now cutting back from route to sprint with a trainer who's 0 for 28 in making that attempt. Horse is 0 for 4 at Saratoga and always a dozen or more points below the par at this level, no thanks. #7 and #8 are the other two dropping to this level for the first time and they both have shown some ability. 7 gets a trainer upgrade while 8 gets a jockey upgrade. The favorite is #5 Cajun Wedding, who gets a trainer upgrade to Maker and has been close at this level. Not the best choice but need to respect in the exotics. #6 is also dropping but tried and failed, hanging at this level three back under a different (and slightly better) trainer. A: 7,8 B: 5
Race 6 - 7 furlong finale to the pick 5 has four short prices (2,3,4 and 7) that all look like they can be competitive here, with 3 longshots look like they're in over their heads. Of the short prices I'm inclined to discard the 2 first, shipping in from the Midwest for the ice-cold McPeek barn. His mile effort in May at Churchill could win this, but Churchill wins have not translated well at the Spa this year. #3 has the connections and is lightly raced, coming off a six month layoff and has been training at the Spa all meet. #4 Bridgeville looks like he'll be on the engine and if he can duplicate his last effort at Parx he'll be tough to catch. #7 is the favorite and has run credible allowance level races at Belmont and very good in Puerto Rico stakes. A: 3,4,7 B: 2
Summary
Race 2 A:2 B:6
Race 3 A:5,6,7 B:1,3,4,8
Race 4 A:5,6 B:2,3
Race 5 A:7,8 B:5
Race 6 A: 3,4,7 B:2
All A's: 2/5,6,7/5,6/7,8/3,4,7 $18
A/1B: 6/5,6,7/5,6/7,8/3,4,7 $18
A/1B: 2/1,3,4,8/5,6/7,8/3,4,7 $24
A/1B: 2/5,6,7/2,3/7,8/3,4,7 $18
A/1B: 2/5,6,7/5,6/5/3,4,7 $9
A/1B: 2/5,6,7/5,6/7,8/2 $6
Total Cost - $83