Saratoga Race Course 2014
- Thread starter Play2win
- Start date
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
You're on fire Play, keep it up.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 6 Pick 3: 2/3,4,6,7,8,9/,4,5,7
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 8 Pick 4: 1,4,5,7/3,5,7,8/5/4,6,8,9
5/3,5,7/1,3,6,7/6,8,9
5/3,5,7/1,3,6,7/6,8,9
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 9 Pick 3: 2,5,7/1,3,7/2,4,6,8
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
At 16-1 he's worth a little WPS wager
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Just caught the Travers replay, damn Moreno upends me again. I'm always against him when he wins and backing him when he comes up short. :hang:
Goes 24&2, 48&4 and 1:13&2 in the Travers last year and gets nailed at the wire, handles 23&3, 47&2 and 1:11&1 pretty easily today. Figures.
Quite the strange group shaping up as Breeders Cup Classic qualifiers:
Moreno
Bayern
Moonshine Mullin
Majestic Harbor
Would anyone have guessed this group? At least it's looking like there will be no shortage of speed at this point.
Goes 24&2, 48&4 and 1:13&2 in the Travers last year and gets nailed at the wire, handles 23&3, 47&2 and 1:11&1 pretty easily today. Figures.
Quite the strange group shaping up as Breeders Cup Classic qualifiers:
Moreno
Bayern
Moonshine Mullin
Majestic Harbor
Would anyone have guessed this group? At least it's looking like there will be no shortage of speed at this point.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Friday's Grade 2, $200,000 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame will likely see Bashart, who broke his maiden and won the Grade 2 With Anticipation last summer at the Spa; Bobby's Kitten, winner of the Penn Mile on May 31;Can'thelpbelieving, who beat older horses in allowance on Opening Day; the Irish-bred Craftsman , who took the Nick Shuk Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park last time out; Long On Value and So Lonesome, most recently second and third, respectively, in the Manila at Belmont Park; and Smooth Daddy, making his graded stakes debut.
Multiple graded stakes winner Silver Max, who is rapidly closing in on the $2 million mark in earnings, makes his second start of 2014 in Saturday's Grade 2, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap at a mile on the inner turf. Trained by Dale Romans, the 5-year-old son of Badge of Silver was a front-running victor in the Grade 2 Firecracker on June 28 at Churchill Downs; in his only appearance at the Spa he took the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch over a yielding course last summer.
Multiple graded stakes winner Silver Max, who is rapidly closing in on the $2 million mark in earnings, makes his second start of 2014 in Saturday's Grade 2, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap at a mile on the inner turf. Trained by Dale Romans, the 5-year-old son of Badge of Silver was a front-running victor in the Grade 2 Firecracker on June 28 at Churchill Downs; in his only appearance at the Spa he took the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch over a yielding course last summer.
The Fourstardave also is expected to attract Jack Milton and Big Screen, who were first and second, respectively, in the Grade 3 Poker on May 26 at Belmont; GrandArch, no worse than third in 14 career starts and winner of the Grade 2 King Edward at Woodbine last time out; Sayaad, who stretched his winning streak to three with a lifetime-best Beyer Speed Figure of 103 in the Forbidden Apple on July 4 at Belmont Park, and Seek Again, who in three American appearances won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in December 2013, finished second in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic in May at Churchill Downs, and checked in third in the Grade 1 Knob Creek Manhattan on June 7 at Belmont.A trio of sensational debut winners at Belmont Park are likely to contest the Grade 2, $200,000 Adirondack for 2-year-old fillies at 6 ½ furlongs next Sunday at Saratoga.
Leading the charge is the Leah Gyarmati-trained Wonder Gal, who was unveiled in the Lynbrook for New York-breds at six furlongs. After lagging behind the early pace, Wonder Gal made a powerful move around the far turn and drew off in the stretch to win by 14 ½ lengths.
Cavorting won by a similarly large margin in her debut for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. The bay filly broke sharply and went straight to the front, leading the field gate to wire en route to an 11-length score in a six-furlong maiden race.
Trainer Todd Pletcher sent out the third, Angela Renee, to a 2 ½-length debut win on June 27 in a five-furlong dash. Angela Renee, owned by Siena Farm, is a half-sister to 2012 Grade 1 Woodward victor To Honor and Serve.
Also probable for the race are Take Charge Brandi, runner-up in the Grade 3 Schuylerville on Opening Day at the Spa,Vivian Da Bling, winner of the TTA Sale Futurity in her latest outing, and Phoenix Park, who debuted a winner in a 4 ½-furlong sprint on June 9 at Parx.
Coco's Wildcat and Empressive Humor are possible.
Tough-luck loser of the Sanford, Mr. Z, and 8-5 favorite in the Sanford, Nonna's Boy, are likely to meet each other again in the Grade 2, $200,000 Toyota Saratoga Special for 2-year-olds at 6 ½ furlongs on Sunday.
Mr. Z, trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, missed by a neck in the Sanford despite a rough stretch RUN
, while Nonna's Boy moved early into a quick pace and tired to finish fourth, beaten two lengths.Texas-bred W V Jetsetter is probable to join the Sanford pair for trainer Bret Calhoun. W V Jetsetter is coming off consecutive victories at Lone Star Park, including a 1 ½-length score in the TTA Sales Futurity.
In addition to Nonna's Boy, trainer Todd Pletcher is likely to send out Blame Jim, who broke his maiden impressively for owner Mike Repole on July 19 at Saratoga, and Stanford, who enters the Sanford off a maiden win on June 29 at Monmouth Park.
Others probable for the Sanford are Cleveland Sound, I Spent It, Rod McLeod and Tizcano. Lord Tyrion is possible.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Weds 8/6 Spa thoughts:
tough doing this the day ahead, 30 miles away we had a thunderstorm with heavy rains in short period of time, believe storm came from Saratoga County, they always get it worse than us and they always baby their turf courses so we have to hope for a dry track and turf racing or all of this is just a waste and means nothing, but:
Playing Pick3
R4: #6,7
R5: #1,4,5
R6: #5
R4: #6 broke from rail in debut, always a negative..drops in class from Msw to Mdn Clm for Bruce Brown who is better 2nd out than 1st out and positive jockey change from Dylan Davis to Javy, half bro had early success as 2yo in dirt sprints, eventual graded stakes winner. #7 debuts vs what appears to be a weak group for trainer that is 10/26 38% $4.38 ROI w/ 2yo 1sters debuting in Mdn Clm dirt sprints L5 years (1 for 3 Spa $10.73 ROI).
R5: DD #1,4,5/5
R5: 1,4,5 appear to be the main players.. #1 seems to be a horse that really wants these 5.5F turf sprints, compared to those at 6F and 7F, and has a win over this course, 8-1 ML.
R6: #5 Zo Zo is one i've been waiting for to run back, heavily bet in troubled trip debut, featured on trips & traps..now adds B's, Tony Dutrow 8/21 38% $4.14 ROI w/ 2yo's adding blinkers in dirt races over last 5 years, also Dutrow is 15/34 44% w/ 2yo 2nd time starters in MSW dirt sprints L5 years, 5 for 5 over $8 ROI @ Spa L5 years.
Pick4
R7: #1,3
R8: #1,8,9
R9: #10
R10: #2,3,6
R7: #1 looking at her last four races, Grade 2..better than these, two 1M 1/4 races..too far, and a Grade 3..once again, better than these. #1 did blow a lead 3 back when it looked liked she should have won but that was off long layoff and going 1 1/4, i can excuse it at 6-1 ML. Not a great looking bunch but #3 has to be used in pk4's if on turf, I want no part of #4 who will take plenty of money.
R8: Should be honest to good pace with 2,4,6 all being on or near the lead and i don't like any of them, 6 could win but won't be on my tickets. #1 is obvious after narrow defeats vs two good horses in Deep Speed and Front, but at prices #8 and #9 are interesting. #8 (12-1 ML) last was yielding and 1 1/4, and previous 1 1/4, now Mile, 3 back puts him right there. #9 (8-1 ML) red hot Motion barn, only one turf race and that was in a sprint but if route races on synth carry over, he'll be a major player.
R9: Watch the replay of #10 Holiday Star's last race (DEL 7/12 R8), you will see he lost ground the entire race, 1st place finisher is an old friend of mine, caught him here last year and is a good horse..but had jump on Holiday Star, as did the 2nd plc finisher of race Talk Show Man..so 1st and 2nd plc finisher had jump and way better trips vs Holiday Star who lost ground entire way, shuffled and lost position 1st time around, entering final turn lost more ground after deciding not to go inside and altered around a foe to yet fan wide and alter around a different horse coming through final turn and closed like a rocket into slow fractions to just miss 2nd.
Now that I did all of this, it just rained again..great. I will have no action if we have an off track and NO turf racing!
tough doing this the day ahead, 30 miles away we had a thunderstorm with heavy rains in short period of time, believe storm came from Saratoga County, they always get it worse than us and they always baby their turf courses so we have to hope for a dry track and turf racing or all of this is just a waste and means nothing, but:
Playing Pick3
R4: #6,7
R5: #1,4,5
R6: #5
R4: #6 broke from rail in debut, always a negative..drops in class from Msw to Mdn Clm for Bruce Brown who is better 2nd out than 1st out and positive jockey change from Dylan Davis to Javy, half bro had early success as 2yo in dirt sprints, eventual graded stakes winner. #7 debuts vs what appears to be a weak group for trainer that is 10/26 38% $4.38 ROI w/ 2yo 1sters debuting in Mdn Clm dirt sprints L5 years (1 for 3 Spa $10.73 ROI).
R5: DD #1,4,5/5
R5: 1,4,5 appear to be the main players.. #1 seems to be a horse that really wants these 5.5F turf sprints, compared to those at 6F and 7F, and has a win over this course, 8-1 ML.
R6: #5 Zo Zo is one i've been waiting for to run back, heavily bet in troubled trip debut, featured on trips & traps..now adds B's, Tony Dutrow 8/21 38% $4.14 ROI w/ 2yo's adding blinkers in dirt races over last 5 years, also Dutrow is 15/34 44% w/ 2yo 2nd time starters in MSW dirt sprints L5 years, 5 for 5 over $8 ROI @ Spa L5 years.
Pick4
R7: #1,3
R8: #1,8,9
R9: #10
R10: #2,3,6
R7: #1 looking at her last four races, Grade 2..better than these, two 1M 1/4 races..too far, and a Grade 3..once again, better than these. #1 did blow a lead 3 back when it looked liked she should have won but that was off long layoff and going 1 1/4, i can excuse it at 6-1 ML. Not a great looking bunch but #3 has to be used in pk4's if on turf, I want no part of #4 who will take plenty of money.
R8: Should be honest to good pace with 2,4,6 all being on or near the lead and i don't like any of them, 6 could win but won't be on my tickets. #1 is obvious after narrow defeats vs two good horses in Deep Speed and Front, but at prices #8 and #9 are interesting. #8 (12-1 ML) last was yielding and 1 1/4, and previous 1 1/4, now Mile, 3 back puts him right there. #9 (8-1 ML) red hot Motion barn, only one turf race and that was in a sprint but if route races on synth carry over, he'll be a major player.
R9: Watch the replay of #10 Holiday Star's last race (DEL 7/12 R8), you will see he lost ground the entire race, 1st place finisher is an old friend of mine, caught him here last year and is a good horse..but had jump on Holiday Star, as did the 2nd plc finisher of race Talk Show Man..so 1st and 2nd plc finisher had jump and way better trips vs Holiday Star who lost ground entire way, shuffled and lost position 1st time around, entering final turn lost more ground after deciding not to go inside and altered around a foe to yet fan wide and alter around a different horse coming through final turn and closed like a rocket into slow fractions to just miss 2nd.
Now that I did all of this, it just rained again..great. I will have no action if we have an off track and NO turf racing!
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
There is a Pick 6 carryover, and if they are rained off the turf, could be a pick 5 as Alpha could be a single in the John's Call..only two real dirt horses entered, him and Micromanage, but Alpha is 4 for 5 at Saratoga and 2 for 2 on wet tracks, including career high Beyer of 109 @ Spa on sloppy track in G1 Woodward.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Are you doing anything in Race 2? Last time we saw the 3-5 favorite he ran 2nd nine months ago to Bakken (morning line favorite in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt last weekend before being scratched, 2nd in the Grade 2 True North in June). Now after his two 2nds last year he's dropped into a 20k claimer? Smells fishy to me.
The 7 looks like he could wire this group and at a square price.
The 7 looks like he could wire this group and at a square price.
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R2: I want no part of heavy fav #5, off long layoff and huge drop after running vs highly regarded, Chad Brown's Bakken, I was thinking #7 wires em, 2nd off layoff and ran best race dropping, now dropping lower vs awful bunch.
R1 I rarely cap/bet jumps but do ok, R1: #5 most accomplished jumper and Sheppard always wins but at short price, top and bottom exacta's with 20-1 ML #6 and 10-1 ML #7, weak group and I believe they have ran vs better.
R1 I rarely cap/bet jumps but do ok, R1: #5 most accomplished jumper and Sheppard always wins but at short price, top and bottom exacta's with 20-1 ML #6 and 10-1 ML #7, weak group and I believe they have ran vs better.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 4 - Mario Morales is one who brings in a long shot every now and then with his firsters, and I think he's got #2 Radamel well placed here at 12-1 ML. He gets Saez to ride who will be aggressive and has shown a positive ROI in sprint races this year. If the horse can run at all he's dangerous.
The Ward and Brown 2nd time runners (#4 & #6) obviously have room to improve, both making the big drop from MSW, but neither was bet in their debut and they both showed little. Of the two the 6 may have more of an excuse as Play noted. Firster Jet Alley (#7) for Trombetta is also logical. For the price though there's value in adding Radamel to the multi-race tickets.
The Ward and Brown 2nd time runners (#4 & #6) obviously have room to improve, both making the big drop from MSW, but neither was bet in their debut and they both showed little. Of the two the 6 may have more of an excuse as Play noted. Firster Jet Alley (#7) for Trombetta is also logical. For the price though there's value in adding Radamel to the multi-race tickets.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
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RACE 9
Off at: 5:17 Track Condition: Firm Purse: $200,000
Race Type: Stakes
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Sex Restriction: Open
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles On The Turf
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<tbody>[TR="bgcolor: #E7E7E7"]
[TH="bgcolor: #E6E2C9"]Program #[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #E6E2C9"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #E6E2C9"]Jockey[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #E6E2C9"]Win[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #E6E2C9"]Place[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #E6E2C9"]Show[/TH]
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3
[/TD][TD]Wallyanna[/TD]
[TD]Irad Ortiz, Jr.[/TD]
[TD]$49.20[/TD]
[TD]$11.60[/TD]
[TD]$4.20[/TD]
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[TD]Bobby's Kitten[/TD]
[TD]Javier Castellano[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]$3.30[/TD]
[TD]$2.40[/TD]
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1
[/TD][TD]Give No Quarter[/TD]
[TD]Rajiv Maragh[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]$2.80[/TD]
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Winning Time: 1:40.66
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
The top four finishers from the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks are likely to return in the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama on August 16.
Stopchargingmaria is probable to headline the Alabama field for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole. The dark bay or brown daughter of Tale of the Cat captured the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan on the Preakness undercard before taking the CCA Oaks by five lengths in her most recent outing. Pletcher may also be represented by Got Lucky, runner-up in the Grade 2 Gazelle at Aqueduct, and most recently winner of a first-level allowance race at Saratoga.CCA Oaks runner-up Unbridled Forever is likely to be sent out by trainer Dallas Stewart. Owned by Charles E. Fipke, the bay filly has now placed in three consecutive Grade 1 races but has not entered the winner's circle since a victory in the Silverbulletday on January 18 at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Bill Mott is probable to saddle the third and fourth-place finishers from the CCA Oaks, Miss Besilu and America, and
Fortune Pearl rounds out the list of probables for the Alabama. The Mineshaft filly, trained by Graham Motion, finished third in the Black-Eyed Susan before taking the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks in her latest outing.
Daring Dancer, winner of the Grade 2 Lake George on July 23, and Grade 1 winner Minorette are among the horses pointing to the Grade 2, $300,000 Knob Creek Lake Placid for 3-year-old turf fillies going nine furlongs on August 16. Daring Dancer began the year taking the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland in April and, following a dull effort in the Wonder Again at Belmont, stepped up to win the 1 1/16-mile Lake George by a head. Runner-up in the Wonder Again, Minorette came back to take the inaugural Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational by two lengths on July 5. Also expected in the Knob Creek Lake Placid are Crown Queen, a Spa allowance winner on July 30 and a half-sister to champion Royal Delta; Wonder Again winner and Belmont Oaks runner-up Sea Queen; and Xcellence, a Group 3 winner in her native France. Stellaris is also possible.
Flaxman Holdings' Main Sequence, winner of the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth Park in his first start since being transferred from England to the barn of Graham Motion, is among the probable starters set to run in the Grade 1, $500,000 Sword Dancer Invitational on August 17. Also pointing toward the 1 ½-mile turf fixture is Grade 1 Man o' War winner Imagining for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, multiple graded stakes winner Amira's Prince for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, multiple graded stakes winner Tannery, world-record holder Twilight Eclipse, O'Prado Ole, Perfect Timber and War Dancer.
Stopchargingmaria is probable to headline the Alabama field for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole. The dark bay or brown daughter of Tale of the Cat captured the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan on the Preakness undercard before taking the CCA Oaks by five lengths in her most recent outing. Pletcher may also be represented by Got Lucky, runner-up in the Grade 2 Gazelle at Aqueduct, and most recently winner of a first-level allowance race at Saratoga.CCA Oaks runner-up Unbridled Forever is likely to be sent out by trainer Dallas Stewart. Owned by Charles E. Fipke, the bay filly has now placed in three consecutive Grade 1 races but has not entered the winner's circle since a victory in the Silverbulletday on January 18 at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Bill Mott is probable to saddle the third and fourth-place finishers from the CCA Oaks, Miss Besilu and America, and
Fortune Pearl rounds out the list of probables for the Alabama. The Mineshaft filly, trained by Graham Motion, finished third in the Black-Eyed Susan before taking the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks in her latest outing.
Daring Dancer, winner of the Grade 2 Lake George on July 23, and Grade 1 winner Minorette are among the horses pointing to the Grade 2, $300,000 Knob Creek Lake Placid for 3-year-old turf fillies going nine furlongs on August 16. Daring Dancer began the year taking the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland in April and, following a dull effort in the Wonder Again at Belmont, stepped up to win the 1 1/16-mile Lake George by a head. Runner-up in the Wonder Again, Minorette came back to take the inaugural Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational by two lengths on July 5. Also expected in the Knob Creek Lake Placid are Crown Queen, a Spa allowance winner on July 30 and a half-sister to champion Royal Delta; Wonder Again winner and Belmont Oaks runner-up Sea Queen; and Xcellence, a Group 3 winner in her native France. Stellaris is also possible.
Flaxman Holdings' Main Sequence, winner of the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth Park in his first start since being transferred from England to the barn of Graham Motion, is among the probable starters set to run in the Grade 1, $500,000 Sword Dancer Invitational on August 17. Also pointing toward the 1 ½-mile turf fixture is Grade 1 Man o' War winner Imagining for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, multiple graded stakes winner Amira's Prince for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, multiple graded stakes winner Tannery, world-record holder Twilight Eclipse, O'Prado Ole, Perfect Timber and War Dancer.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
great call Play
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
8/9 Saratoga thoughts:
R1: #6 is a value play for me at 6-1 ML, goes turf to dirt and could get a favorable pace setup today..also using #2 who also goes turf to dirt (good trainer move for Bruce Brown) and gets positive jockey change from Luzzi to Rosario and #1 gets class relief today, winner of 2 back will be running in G1 Alabama next Saturday and 3rd place finisher of that race would be a heavy fav vs these. I'm against #5 and #7 and both expect to take money..#5 wired maiden claimers on what i thought was a speed favoring track and now faces winners for first time and #7 is Ramsey/Maker off claim but Maker 0 for 10 Spa dirt 2014 meet, 3 for 35 Spa dirt 2013 meet.
R2: #5,7,8 are all dropping from Msw to Md Claimers and should be used..using #5 (8-1 ML) the best because of price, 2nd off layoff, could be the main speed in here while making 1st dirt start w/ Lasix.
R3: #5 is one to beat in here but i'm using #1,3,9
R4: going with 1sters #3 and #6 who are both 8-1 ML. #3 new hot sire 6 for 10 with his 2yo 1sters, respect Weaver and solid string of works and #6 $175K 2yo in training purchase in April at Ocala after working 1F in 10.1 seconds, his dam is a half to 3 stakes winners.
R5: looking at #2,5,6..#2 is obvious, a class drop cutback for dangerous claiming owner making 2nd start off long layoff..#5 is off claim and cutting back, has 2 back wins on Spa dirt, #6 could be a reach but seems like dirtied up form, 2 races in mud and races on synth, although 2 back (mud) does make him tough here and that was off long layoff, 10-5-3-0 record going today's distance and 4-2-1-0 record on fast dirt.
R6: looking at #8,9,10..possibly #10 the best, dam has dropped 7 foals, 6 are winners and 3 are turf winners, $310K 2yo in training purchase Ocala March after working 1F in 10.1 (synth), love Chad with 2yo 1sters in turf routes at this meet.
R7: #4 is one to beat and i may use but i like #1 and #2
R8 #8,4,1 are the ones i'll be using in that order
R9: #2,5,10,12 no special order
R10: expecting #3 and #6 to get good trips behind speeds, whom i'm against of #1 and #5..I like #6 the best, will also use #3 and maybe a little #2 in pk4's
R11: no order, using #3,7,11
R1: #6 is a value play for me at 6-1 ML, goes turf to dirt and could get a favorable pace setup today..also using #2 who also goes turf to dirt (good trainer move for Bruce Brown) and gets positive jockey change from Luzzi to Rosario and #1 gets class relief today, winner of 2 back will be running in G1 Alabama next Saturday and 3rd place finisher of that race would be a heavy fav vs these. I'm against #5 and #7 and both expect to take money..#5 wired maiden claimers on what i thought was a speed favoring track and now faces winners for first time and #7 is Ramsey/Maker off claim but Maker 0 for 10 Spa dirt 2014 meet, 3 for 35 Spa dirt 2013 meet.
R2: #5,7,8 are all dropping from Msw to Md Claimers and should be used..using #5 (8-1 ML) the best because of price, 2nd off layoff, could be the main speed in here while making 1st dirt start w/ Lasix.
R3: #5 is one to beat in here but i'm using #1,3,9
R4: going with 1sters #3 and #6 who are both 8-1 ML. #3 new hot sire 6 for 10 with his 2yo 1sters, respect Weaver and solid string of works and #6 $175K 2yo in training purchase in April at Ocala after working 1F in 10.1 seconds, his dam is a half to 3 stakes winners.
R5: looking at #2,5,6..#2 is obvious, a class drop cutback for dangerous claiming owner making 2nd start off long layoff..#5 is off claim and cutting back, has 2 back wins on Spa dirt, #6 could be a reach but seems like dirtied up form, 2 races in mud and races on synth, although 2 back (mud) does make him tough here and that was off long layoff, 10-5-3-0 record going today's distance and 4-2-1-0 record on fast dirt.
R6: looking at #8,9,10..possibly #10 the best, dam has dropped 7 foals, 6 are winners and 3 are turf winners, $310K 2yo in training purchase Ocala March after working 1F in 10.1 (synth), love Chad with 2yo 1sters in turf routes at this meet.
R7: #4 is one to beat and i may use but i like #1 and #2
R8 #8,4,1 are the ones i'll be using in that order
R9: #2,5,10,12 no special order
R10: expecting #3 and #6 to get good trips behind speeds, whom i'm against of #1 and #5..I like #6 the best, will also use #3 and maybe a little #2 in pk4's
R11: no order, using #3,7,11
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Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 1: #6 and #4 might get best pace scenario as several of these may be fighting for the early lead. Against #5 trying winners for the first time.
Race 2: #5 looks best to me, #7 is going to take a lot of money. Will use #3 underneath as he might be able to close into what could be some fast early fractions.
Race 3: #5 is 3-3 on turf and has won both on and off the lead and certainly the one to beat here. #3 should get a nice stalking trip and #9 has been much better in last 2 since the claim and switch to Contessa.
Race 4: Agree with Play on #3 and #6, wish Freeman had some better numbers on 6 in these type of spots but at 8-1, still offers some value. #2 draws the rail which is always tricky for FTS and will take money, prefer #8 of the 2 Pletchers.
Race 5: Wide open race, can see any of the #3,5,6,7 or 8 who should all be a decent price.
Race 6: #7, like the series of 5F turf works for this debut, #8 and #10 both come from barns (Weaver and Brown) that can get them ready first time routing on turf.
Race 7: #4 is 2nd off after earning a huge number in the slop back in December, should be ready to roll here. If that one gets caught up in an early speed duel can see #5 passing horses in the lane and picking up at least a minor slice.
Race 2: #5 looks best to me, #7 is going to take a lot of money. Will use #3 underneath as he might be able to close into what could be some fast early fractions.
Race 3: #5 is 3-3 on turf and has won both on and off the lead and certainly the one to beat here. #3 should get a nice stalking trip and #9 has been much better in last 2 since the claim and switch to Contessa.
Race 4: Agree with Play on #3 and #6, wish Freeman had some better numbers on 6 in these type of spots but at 8-1, still offers some value. #2 draws the rail which is always tricky for FTS and will take money, prefer #8 of the 2 Pletchers.
Race 5: Wide open race, can see any of the #3,5,6,7 or 8 who should all be a decent price.
Race 6: #7, like the series of 5F turf works for this debut, #8 and #10 both come from barns (Weaver and Brown) that can get them ready first time routing on turf.
Race 7: #4 is 2nd off after earning a huge number in the slop back in December, should be ready to roll here. If that one gets caught up in an early speed duel can see #5 passing horses in the lane and picking up at least a minor slice.
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bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
GL guys :cheers:
