Saratoga Race Course 2014

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Some quick Monday thoughts:

Race 1: 5 and 8 top choices will use 2 and 3 as well

Race 2: 2, 6 and 8 all look good

Race 3: Like 1 and 6 best, lean against 5

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Race 4: Will use 2, 6, 9, 10

Race 5: May single with 8 here

Gandolf · Jul 21, 2014

Not sure you'll see a better race all meet than those babies on the turf in the 2nd. 4 way photo!

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Gandolf said:
Not sure you'll see a better race all meet than those babies on the turf in the 2nd. 4 way photo!

And I caught way the best of it with a 2,6,8 tri box :cheers:

Gandolf · Jul 21, 2014

Late Pick 4 thoughts:

Race 6 - Total grab bag of a race with a Brisnet Speed Par of 68, which is ridiculously low. No less than 9 of the 12 entered have run to that level, was able to cut it down to five: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, although 5 and 8 fit as well and have high enough odds to make them worth using. Best value to me is the 7, returning to turf and dropping down from MSW at 20/1 morning line. The phrase "Bad horses win bad races" comes to mind.

Race 7 - 5 and 10 make the most sense to me here based on their combination of speed, form and class. Both should sit right behind the 1 and 4 and get first run. 6 and 9 are both interesting for the exotics, 6 looks just a touch slower than my top two and the 9 comes off and 8 month layoff and might need a race.

Race 8 - Four horses and I have a hard time not using Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia, have fond memories of both. However the 3 should get an easy lead and the 6 is probably in the best form, so any of the four are no surprise.

Race 9 - Looks like enough speed is signed on here to allow the 1 and 4 to come running late. 3 also looks tough in here and could improve with the turnback.

Pick 4 = 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 / 5,10 / 2,4 / 1,3,4 $42

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Race 6 Pick 4's:

1,2,4,5,6,8/5,7,10/2/1,3,4,6 $36
1,2,4,6,8/5,10/4/3,4,6 $15

Gandolf · Jul 21, 2014

The 7th choice (#2) wins in Race 6, that's great use of spreading, good ticket structure so far.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Yup, that was wide open and a nice price to kick this off

Gandolf · Jul 21, 2014

Holy shit, I thought the 2nd race was great, that 8th was a classic. Grace Hall deserved better.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Great race for sure, Grace Hall the best there I thought but some really bad luck getting bounced around there.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 21, 2014

Entries for Friday http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SAR072514USA-EQB.html

Gandolf · Jul 23, 2014

Looking at Wednesday's Pick 5, it's hard to dismiss the Pletcher firster in Race 2 (#8) considering he scratched his other entry here. Also we have odds on favorites in races 3 (#5) and 6 (1 entry) who will be tough. I'm playing for at least 2 of the 3 to win:

8/5/2,4-7/2,3,5/1
3,6/5/2,4-7/2,3,5/1
8/2,4/2,4-7/2,3,5/1
8/5/2,4,5,6,7/2,3,5/8

Lloyd Braun · Jul 23, 2014

Good luck getting that last leg in Gandolf. 1A is really tough here is she is half the horse she was last year.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 23, 2014

Entries for Saturday, July 26 http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SAR072614USA-EQB.html

Gandolf · Jul 23, 2014

Gandolf said:
Looking at Wednesday's Pick 5, it's hard to dismiss the Pletcher firster in Race 2 (#8) considering he scratched his other entry here. Also we have odds on favorites in races 3 (#5) and 6 (1 entry) who will be tough. I'm playing for at least 2 of the 3 to win:

8/5/2,4-7/2,3,5/1
3,6/5/2,4-7/2,3,5/1 paid $91.87
8/2,4/2,4-7/2,3,5/1
8/5/2,4,5,6,7/2,3,5/8

Doubled up, better than a stick in the eye I suppose.

Gandolf · Jul 23, 2014

Late pick 4 has two turf route crapshoots and two that look reasonable. Will try to pick off the favorite in Race 7, and couldn't make heads or tails of the Lake George, throwing out only the 3. Will lean hard on the 1 in the 8th, and liking the 3 and 8 in the nightcap. The rare 6x1x6x2 ticket:

1,2,4,8,10,11 / 1 / 1,2,4,5,6,7 / 3,8 $36

Play2win · Jul 23, 2014

Damn Lloyd, i see you guys are in R2 on Saturday, friend of mine owns Hidden Vow in there..hope you guys run 1-2, either order. GL. Are you going on Sat? I'll have to meet up with you at some point.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 23, 2014

Just looked at the race now and Hidden Vow is one I'm worried about there. Yes, I will be there on Saturday, if you are going to be there let me know, it would be great to meet up.

Play2win · Jul 23, 2014

i'll be there on Sat, yes, we will meet up for sure

Lloyd Braun · Jul 23, 2014

Sounds good, looking forward to it

Lloyd Braun · Jul 24, 2014

Race 4 Pick 3: 1,6/1,3,4,10/1,2,5,8

Lloyd Braun · Jul 24, 2014

Late Pick 4:

2,3,6,8/2,5,6,7/4/3,4,8,10,11 $40
2,6,8/6/1,2,5/3,4,8,11 $18

Play2win · Jul 24, 2014

07/24/2014 12:56PM
[h=1]Crist: Jim Dandy has substance over Haskell's flash[/h]By Steven Crist

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What’s the best way to get to the Travers – the $600,000 Jim Dandy over the Saratoga track, or the richer and usually glitzier $1 million Haskell at Monmouth?
In recent years, the Haskell has usually been the more compelling race, but the Jim Dandy has been a more successful launching pad for Travers winners.
Things could well <nobr>play</nobr> out the same way this year. Both races will be renewed this weekend, and each drew good fields with a pair of Grade 1 winners. On Saturday at Saratoga, Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist and Wood Memorial winner <nobr>Wicked Strong</nobr> head a field of seven in the Jim Dandy. Given their connections, it was 1-10 they would end up at Saratoga instead of Monmouth this weekend. Trainers Christophe Clement (Tonalist) and Jimmy Jerkens (Wicked Strong) are based in New York and run here whenever possible. Also, it would be surprising if both horses fire their very best shots Saturday as opposed to firing merely good ones while getting a Travers prep over the Saratoga track.
(Tonalist and Wicked Strong have met twice before; most recently when running 1st and 4th in the Belmont, but also when they ran second and fourth, respectively, in a Feb. 22 allowance race at Gulfstream that might be considered the Key Race of the Year: the victorious Constitution won the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his next start; second-place Tonalist won the Grade 2 Peter Pan and Grade 1 Belmont in his next two; and fourth-place Wicked Strong emerged from a fourth-place finish to win the Wood.)
On Sunday at Monmouth, two of the most talented 3-year-olds in the country – with perhaps more explosive ability than the Jim Dandy runners -- will square off in the Haskell, and both will be trying something new: Untapable will be facing males for the first time, and Bayern will be trying to win beyond a mile.
Both have been brilliant. Untapable has won all four of her starts this year, including big-figure romps in the Fair Grounds Oaks (<nobr>earning</nobr> a Beyer Speed Figure of 106) and Kentucky Oaks (107), and a 9 1/4-length blowout in the <nobr>Mother Goose</nobr> last time out. She has no competition in the 3-year-old filly ranks and thus is taking on the males and trying to join Serena’s Song (1995) and Rachel Alexandra (2009) as the only fillies to win the Haskell.
Bayern is less accomplished but turned in a truly sensational performance last time out on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Making his fifth <nobr>career start</nobr> in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop, he dueled for the lead through sizzling fractions of 21.96 and 44.20, and then sprinted away to win by 7 1/2 lengths with seven furlongs in 1:20.75. That was good for a Beyer of 107.
They are the leaders of the 3-year-old filly and 3-year-old sprinter divisions, but unlike Tonalist and Wicked Strong, neither is necessarily on a path to the Travers. This would jibe with the pattern of recent years, when the Haskell has featured some scintillating performances but the Jim Dandy has proved the more productive <nobr>route</nobr> to the Travers.
In the last dozen years, no Haskell winner has won the Travers but six Jim Dandy winners have made it the first half of a double with the Travers: Medaglia d’Oro (2002), Flower Alley (2005), Bernardini (2006), Street Sense (2007), Stay Thirsty (2011), and Alpha (2012). Last year’s Travers winner, Will Take Charge, was second in the Jim Dandy. The roll of Haskell winners during that time includes champions such as War Emblem, Big Brown, Rachel Alexandra, and Lookin At Lucky, but you have to go back to Point Given in 2001 to find a Haskell-Travers winner. (The only other two in the last 25 years were Coronado’s Quest in 1998 and Holy Bull in 1994.)
If I could watch only one race this weekend, it would be the Haskell. The ambitious bids by Untapable and Bayern are inherently fascinating, and the prospect of their hooking up down the stretch is exhilarating. Tonalist and Wicked Strong don’t make the blood run as quickly – they should outrun their mild competition while getting useful experience over the track – but the Jim Dandy may well prove, yet again, the better way to get to the Travers winner’s circle.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 24, 2014

All the speed ended up in Monmouth. Bayern, Social Inclusion, Wildcat Red, even Untapable. First glance I am leaning Medal Count. The Jim Dandy has a lack of early kick which will probably hurt the 3 outisde horses, Kid Cruz, Commanding Curve and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong. With his tactical speed this race sets up nicely for Tonalist.

Gandolf · Jul 25, 2014

What a fine group in the Haskell, and most are in great form at the moment.

Untapable - Simple dominating against the fillies this year, Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose winner.
Medal Count - Grade 1 place & show and a Grade 3 winner. Ran huge in the Belmont.
Wildcat Red - Grade 1 place and a Grade 2 & 3 winner, snuck back down Gulfstream after his Derby flop and found his form by dominating East Hall, who just came back to romp in the Ohio Derby.
Albano - Grade 2 placed, had to pull off the Derby trail but returned to form with a big win in the Grade 3 Pegasus at Monmouth.
Bayern - Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner, won by 7 in his last.
Irish You Well - finished 3rd in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races while still a maiden, only broke his cherry in June and then followed right back with a stakes win in the Longbranch.
Just Call Kenny - Only his fifth race, and the first time ever he'll actually race without a layoff. Comes off a 2nd to Irish You Well in the Longbranch. Won a stake at Gulfstream before that.
Encryption - Set a slow pace in the Longbranch and then was run down by the two listed above. Still this is only the fifth race of his career and he could improve.
Social Inclusion - Three straight shows in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races, ultra-quick, comes in off a freshening. Probably the wildcard of the race, could finish first or last.

Overall this group is 62 27-11-14 with only 10 finishes off the board.

In contrast the Jim Dandy, admittedly a grade 2, has 7 starters that have gone 47 15-9-7 with 16 times outside the money.

I agree with Lloyd in that tactically Medal Count and Tonalist have the edge in their races. Tonalist would need to really lay an egg to lose the Jim Dandy, he should be able to sit anywhere from 1st to 3rd depending on the pace and roll home. Medal Count will need to fire his best shot and get the pace help to win but it's certainly a reasonable possibility, unless Untapable is simply too good.

Gandolf · Jul 25, 2014

Friday's Late Pick 4:

2,3,4,8,9 / 2,6,9 / 2,9 / 4,5,7,9

Good sequence, 9-8-9-10 horse fields, all competitive, should pay well.

Inspekdah · Jul 26, 2014

P2W. Thanks for your analysis.

Do you know how I could get my hands on a Lawton orange sheet if I am not going to make it up to the track?

I like to basically take your information, and reference it against his work, and throw in a horse or two of my own for beer money.

But not sure where I can get his picks, sheet, if I am not up there???

Anyone know?

Lloyd Braun · Jul 27, 2014

:Happy5::Happy5:

It wasn't the prettiest of stretch runs, and I haven't seen too many horses cross the finish line almost sideways, but Sanctify showed a great turn of foot today and did it in a damn good time, 1:40.85.

Lloyd Braun · Jul 27, 2014

Play2win said:
Damn Lloyd, i see you guys are in R2 on Saturday, friend of mine owns Hidden Vow in there..hope you guys run 1-2, either order. GL. Are you going on Sat? I'll have to meet up with you at some point.

1st and 3rd wasn't too bad.

Gandolf · Jul 27, 2014

Congrats on the win Lloyd, and at an overlay price too!

Wish I had remembered to play it (sigh).

Lloyd Braun · Jul 27, 2014

Thanks Gandy

Play2win · Jul 30, 2014

Saturday's Whitney card is out: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-SAR-20140802D

Play2win · Jul 30, 2014

Saratoga Track Bias Info:

7/18: Speed did well in Turf races.

7/19: Inside speed was good on dirt.

7/20: 5 dirt races, only 1 wire to wire winner.

7/21: 4 dirt races, no wire to wire winners.

7/24: Almost all dirt winners were close to early pace.

7/25: Inside seemed deepest part of track (dirt), horses in middle of track did well and was the place to be.

7/27: Speed was good on dirt.

7/30: NO dirt winner went wire to wire. NO dirt winner won on inside, middle of track was place to be and where all dirt winners came from.

Lloyd Braun · Aug 1, 2014

Early Pick 5 for Friday. #7 in race 1 is improving and third off a layoff, #1 seems best but seems to have seconditis. Race 2 will single the favorite here as it stays on the lawn and this one loves this distance on the grass. Race 3 #4 is regally bred and comes in for McLaughlin off the barn switch, if she isn't quite ready a few others may be able to hit for a price. Race 4 is hurt by some scratches, 4 is best but can see the 2 or 6. Race 5 is wide ope so I try to spread and see if one I have at a number can catch the #7.

1,6,7/3/1,3,4,6,7/2,4,6/1,2,7,10,12 = 112.50

Play2win · Aug 1, 2014

Inspekdah said:
P2W. Thanks for your analysis.

Do you know how I could get my hands on a Lawton orange sheet if I am not going to make it up to the track?

I like to basically take your information, and reference it against his work, and throw in a horse or two of my own for beer money.

But not sure where I can get his picks, sheet, if I am not up there???

Anyone know?

I'm pretty sure Lawton can only be purchased at the track, i'll ask around and get back to you for a 100% answer though.

Play2win · Aug 1, 2014

Spek, holla at ya boy if u go up at all!

Play2win · Aug 1, 2014

8/2 SARATOGA WHITNEY DAY thoughts:

Great races, difficult card, should be plenty of value someplace and that's where i'm searching

R1: Turf: #11 (10-1 ML) is my top choice, won debut at Spa in turf sprint, wide move in last, throw out race in mud 2 back. #1 is likely fav and most likely winner. #8 could win but i don't want him, hasn't run a step in his turf races and short price. #12 is another short price and also could win, but i don't wan't a horse 1st time vs winners at a short price.

WIN #11, DD #1,11/2,3,8

R2: #8 (8-1 ML), debut was slow start on a muddy track and is a throw out race, Lopresti 26% mdn 2nd start past year, winner of that race came back to win. #3 trainer capable off layoff of this type and off to hot start at meet, cutback and nice recent works. #2 last race was on turf and race before that was 13 hole at Gulf going 6f, two throw outs and previous two races put her right there. #6 and #7 are short prices that have had too many chances and too many minor awards for me.

R3: Turf: #3 and #10 the best for me, Shug not known as a 1st out guy but has 3 1ster wins in 2014 and 6 1ster wins over the last 12 months. #10 would've won his debut at Ellis Park if not for running into rail late while drawing off, big jockey change. #5 could win but likely fav has traveled from Arlington to Ascot to Churchill to Toga, seems to be a lot of mileage for a 2yo, and Ward only 3/38 (8%) with 2yo's on turf at Saratoga L5 years.

R4: Turf: #3 (4-1 ML) is my top choice, exits key race, now 2nd off layoff, ran big race up here last year closing into slow fractions, horse that finished 3rd two back came back to win. #9 will be on smaller tickets.

R5: #1 is a likely winner but i don't bet on 1sters breaking from the rail, #4 and #6 and possibly a little #10 for me

R6: Turf: #2, #7

R7: Turf: #6 (12-1 ML) and #9 (4-1 ML)

R8: #4 (8-1 ML) the best, 2nd off layoff, caught chasing in last, good prep, 2nd in this race last year vs winner that had perfect setup, also using #8 on smaller tickets.

R9: #7 - #5 - #4 in that order for me.. maybe a little #8

R10: Seems like we'll have a lively pace early and could set up for #1 and will also be using #7

R11: Turf: will be using #4,#7 and #8

Best of luck on the action today, if anyone has any questions about any of the races, i'm around.

Inspekdah · Aug 2, 2014

Thanks for the thoughts man!

Not using Palace in anything? Think he can be beat?

Inspekdah · Aug 2, 2014

Play2win said:
Spek, holla at ya boy if u go up at all!

Didn't see this till today. Was up for a few races yesterday. Where do you usually hang? Clubhouse? I'm lazy I usually hit that bar in front of Shake shack or the grass area with the big screen behind that where you can watch the horses warm up.

Play2win · Aug 2, 2014

if you mean Malice, he'll be on saver pk4's but Palace in R8, he has a shot but won't be on my tix. GL today.

Inspekdah · Aug 2, 2014

When you write that you like 2 or 3 horses in a race are you targeting them in DD's, Pick 3/4's, etc. or are you also throwing them in exactas?

I personally never have gotten too exotic with my bets and when I feel like I'm owning a card I'm only doubling my bankroll (just a few $ bucks nothing great) and that doesn't seem right. But I'm also really only betting a few DD's and W/P on a horse I try to like.

Play2win · Aug 2, 2014

i'm not really an exacta bettor, mainly win and multi race exotics

Play2win · Aug 2, 2014

R1: Win #11

R2: DD #2,3,8/3,4,10
R2: Pk 4 #2,3,8/3,4,10/3/1,4,6

twinkie13 · Aug 2, 2014

Giving Departing a go....in stiff, but he has been looking good

Inspekdah · Aug 2, 2014

Play2win said:
R1: Win #11

R2: DD #2,3,8/3,4,10
R2: Pk 4 #2,3,8/3,4,10/3/1,4,6

Tailed ya. GL to us! Well, I did on the p4. Went small with DD with 3,8/10.

Inspekdah · Aug 2, 2014

Of course i throw out the 9-1 #2 horse in the DD. Nice start to the p4

Inspekdah · Aug 2, 2014

Nice DD hit P2W. Should pay well 9-1, 9-2.

Play2win · Aug 2, 2014

thanks bro.

R4: Win #3

Play2win · Aug 2, 2014

also R4: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9 W/ 1, 4, 6 W/ 2

Play2win · Aug 2, 2014

^^^ Pk3

Saratoga Race Course 2014

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