Saratoga Race Course 2013

Great weekend of racing on tap @ Saratoga, Haskell weekend at Monmouth and Paynter returns to the races at Delmar. Against Paynter as a horse player, not as a fan...layoff, inj issues and now on synth, give me Liason since he likes synth and out worked Paynter in most recent work. In the Haskell there seems to be a ton of speed...love that because I was looking for a reason to be against odds on fav Verrazano anyway...he will be part of the pace as well as Power Broker, who I thought was pretty impressive in his last and even though part of pace will be my 2nd choice in here, top choice is Micromanage...will be over looked in betting, should have great setup pace wise and will get overlay odds on Repole/Pletcher/Bravo...sign me up. At Saratoga on Saturday; wide open card, every race...shop for value, many horses in many races have a chance to win...Race #1: #2 is obvious, I like #8 a little better considering the difference in price...I like Magic Harbour's back 2 turn form at Aqu and Rudy off to nice start of meet...Race #2: starts early pk 4 which I think sequence that can be hit without investing a whole lot...1A,2,5,8 are the ones i'll be using...Race #3: using 3,5,6...#6 huge trainer move at meet, Asmussen w/ 2yo 2nd time starters @ Sar...Race #4: #6 is likely fav and if he wins I will not...I like #1,2,5,7...#7 likely the best, he's out of two very good races and had tough trips vs War Dancer (McPeek) and Hardest Core (horse I had in 1st race on opening day)...Race #5: #7 Kauai Katie will be a huge fav and while appears draws nicely on outside there will be plenty of other speed to go with her early and keep her honest...I like #1 and #5...#1 Irish Lute exits a win vs Uno Duo @ CD and Uno Duo has a bright future imo and was an impressive winner for Mott at this meet and #5 So Many Ways is 2 for 2 at Sar, is cutting back, exits a Fiftyshadesofhay (beast) race and was 1/2 length of Irish Lute 2 back, since I like one...I have to use them both type situation...Race #6: like many races on Saturday's card, wide open...#2,3,10,14 prolly top contenders...Race #7: #5 will take a lot of $, i'll be against him...#4,6,7,11 look to be the ones i'll be using...Race #8: likely use #1,2,4,5 in multi race wagers...tend to like #4 Majestic Raffy the best due to price, 3rd off layoff so should improve off last race in which he had no pace to run at and 2 back is a throw out race, was a turf sprint off layoff...great jock switch and Javy aboard...3 and 4 back vs Lubash and few others that would crush this field...Race #9: #2,5 only two i'll use, actually like #5 the best in here...Centre Court did not have the best of it in her last as far as trip and turf condition...Race #10: like #8 Mylute the best and also will be using #1 Bashaar...4,5,7 part of pace and looking for #1 or #8 to run down the speeds...Race #11: going to be most difficult leg of late pk 4, contenders: #1,3,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13. For some reason i'm not able to use proper spacing in my posts, so sorry bout format...BOL everyone!!! :cheers:
 
Play, if u get wchance and dont mind, i'd love to hear how to correlate ur thoughts into te plays. I seem to do alright at picking winners, but fail miseray when using exotics. I think i dont cap how inexpect race to turn out very well ie picking 2 frontrunning horses to finish 1 2 when thats not likely to happen.
 
Good luck today Play. Agree with most of your opinions, especially in the stakes. Think it's Mylute's turn in the Jim Dandy.

A couple of horses to consider: in the crazy 6th I like 7 Shankapotamus getting the jockey upgrade, with past Spa success, used to running longer and with only #9 as a pace threat. 13 also has good pace numbers and figures to be a big price.

In the 7th the #1 has proven class, gets Rosie for the ride and the back race figures tower over the field. Only concern is if they decide to duel the 7 up front. #2 also could improve off a pretty good first turf try.

In the closer the 6, 9 and 10 stand out to me. Top choice of #10 who's 2 for 6 at the distance and should see a nice pace to run at. Add the 5 and 11 for deep pockets.
 
Mylute basically a no show. Fractions were too soft for the closers. Palace Malace gonna be tough in the Travers.
 
Older horses will be showcased next weekend as Saratoga will present the Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney Invitational Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on Saturday and the Grade 1, $400,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap at six furlongs on Sunday.
In addition toAlpha,Fast Falcon,Mucho Macho Man, the Whitney is expected to attract last year's winner Fort Larned Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap runner-upCross Traffic, and four-time graded stakes winner Successful Dan, according to NYRA stakes coordinator Andrew Byrnes.

The Vanderbilt is expected to serve as a rematch between the Iowa Sprint Handicap top-two finishers
Gentleman's Bet and Delaunay. In the Iowa Sprint, Gentleman's Bet defeated Delaunay by 1 ¾ lengths to register his first stakes score and snap Delaunay's winning streak at six. Also probable are
Bahamian Squall, Justin Phillip, and Picko's Pride
 
Not a bad weekend, had some chances on Saturday but not very good. On Sunday cashed on $37 winner, Meeker Avenue...had a win bet. On Monday cashed a couple of tickets keying R3 winner Kiss Me Lola and R8 winner Dance to Bristol...and she is the best filly and mare sprinter.
 
Weds 7/31 Race #6 John's Call Stakes: #8 Royal Bench (12-1 ML) trained by Tom Voss who also trained John's Call...had no chance 2 back off long layoff and no one really moved or changed position in race, 1-2-3 finishers all top 3 all race...and in last race broke from 12 post @ Colonial, wide trip whole way...4 wide turn 1, wide turn 2, and drift out extremely wide turning for home while making what could've been a winning move, still ran well through stretch despite being hung wide whole race vs perfect trip winner.
 
Obv Pletcher is on fire but other trainers off to great starts: Weaver (all big prices), Jacobson, Stall (great percentage), Mott, Asmussen with 2 yo's.
 
Should be a good pace in the Whitney with Fort Larned and Cross Traffic both early speed types and Mucho Macho Man likely stalking the pace and maybe Ron The Greek runs them down. Really against Alpha who loves track but hasn't been the same since shipping to Dubai, like many others that ship to Dubai. Field looking like: Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man, Csaba, Ron The Greek, Successful Dan, Cross Traffic, Alpha, Fast Falcon.
 
Both Darley horses from Curlin Stakes and Will Take Charge are the ones im leaning towards in Travers...at the moment.
 
FYI Twink, one of your favorites, Departing, is running in the West Virginia Derby on Saturday. Should be one of three co-favorites with Betweenhereandcool and Overanalyze.
 
Pretty weak card on Friday...I like #1 Madame Giry in Race 6 though...had her both times she won over this course last year, now she's 2nd off layoff for sharp trainer and price should be ok and should have decent pace to run at with Silverette, Rosa Salvaje and possibly Spun Cap dueling early or at least setting honest fractions.
 
Play2win said:
lean Ron The Greek in Whitney and will post Saturday thoughts on Fri night
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Ron the Greek should get the pace scenario he needs with all the speed in here. However, speed has been holding up pretty good here and don't think anyone in this field can beat Fort Larned if he runs his race. Think we might see a repeat of last year's edition of the Whitney with Fort Larned sitting back behind Cross Traffic through the backstretch before making his move on the turn, getting the jump on the rest and having enough to finish ahead of Ron the Greek.
 
Why I love the ponies
You can suck wind/ break even for so long and then, all of a sudden.. everything clicks
Today at Monmouth Park I had the $17 winnier in the 1st 10-10
10 on the DD which paid 121.00
2nd race 20 W-P on $14 winner
plus $5 2nd race exacta that paid $146

Life is good

Retired after the 5th
 
DaRaiders said:
Why I love the ponies
You can suck wind/ break even for so long and then, all of a sudden.. everything clicks
Today at Monmouth Park I had the $17 winnier in the 1st 10-10
10 on the DD which paid 121.00
2nd race 20 W-P on $14 winner
plus $5 2nd race exacta that paid $146

Life is good

Retired after the 5th
Click to expand...
nice job bro :cheers:
 
I would love to get 4-1 or better on Ron the Greek...Foster day @ CD came back a speed biased track, that and being on the inside of other speed Cross Traffic makes me think its a good spot to take a shot against Fort Larned at a very short price.
 
Race 5: #10 Kate Is a Ten (10-1 ML) is one of my better plays on the card, tough trips in only 2 turf races and catches a weak bunch here off the claim for Serpe. Race 6: #4 Archer Hill (6-1 ML) was one of the most impressive 2yo winners of the meet last summer, then tried open company then dirt, now 2nd off layoff and adding blinkers, seems to be rounding into top form and I think is set up nicely to run a career best race here. Race 9: #2 Sweet Little Lion (6-1 ML) is another one of my top plays of the day, 2nd off layoff...trainer change to Mott...Rosario jumps on...2 back on dirt is a throw out race...3rd place finisher in last came back to win 75k stakes @ Calder registering a 88 beyer.
 
Race 1: im against likely fav #1 Googleado, breaks from rail w/ plenty of other speeds to outside and I have to see Morse win a race at Saratoga before I bet on him. 6,7,8 are the ones I think are interesting and I like #6 Gombey Dancer the best, off the trainer change to the always dangerous Tony Dutrow barn, no shot in last race...muddy track vs the likes of Bad Hombre, no shot in Swale vs Clearly Now...comes into this one off 2 bullet works.
 
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Race 2: Contenders look to be Darley entry, and #4,5,7...of Darley entry, prefer 1a Pazolini the most...hard to trust McLaughlin 1st out even though capable w/ 1sters at this meet and won with one the other day, but sired by Bernardini and purchased for $875k enough to take a look, #4 is Twink's boy Stall...Arriving is a half bro to 6 winners and the fact that he debuts as a gelding may mean he's ready to run...#5 Tiz for Tat has improved speed figure wise in all 3 life starts and comes off of two 2nds to 2 very good ones, Mentor Cane and Mico Margarita and #7 Mr O'Leary...in debut did all the dirty work to set up win by Eastwood, who came back to win again in Alw ranks with a 93 Beyer, 2nd place finisher Sliver and Onions is a winner at the meet, running 3rd to those two in debut... after doing all the work in race (chasing duelers, then taking lead) makes him a serious contender.
 
Race 3: is a joke, 20k maiden claimers...#7 High Inflation has some throw out races, cuts back, turf to dirt and could be the main speed...a real crazy bomb...and they often win these type of races is #3 Miss McKeown...the ones that have run on dirt have showed nothing thus far, she debuted on turf and that was ugly but maybe she wants to run on dirt and not turf...dam won 2 races and both were dirt sprints.
 
Race 4: isn't the greatest either, 20k Claimers...#2 Formulaforsuccess looks tough in here class wise, Ramsey and Maker won 3 races on Friday and Ramsey looking to be leading owner @ meet...#10 Kanagaro is interesting because this year he's been running on dirt and synth but his back turf races were vs much better...both of those two horse will take plenty of action and must be used in multi race wagering but at the price, just betting on this race individually...at the price i'll be on #3 Sam's Buck...red hot trainer George Weaver...both of Sam's Buck wins are over the Spa course as he's 2 for 3...in his last race Weaver removed the blinkers, so maybe Weaver found something to wake up the 5yo gelding...deep closer will need a good pace to run at and maybe 1,4,12 can provide that speed...don't like the speed horses in race but other contenders besides 2,3,10 are 7 and 8.
 
FWIW...Drf offering bet $100 get $125 free thru DrfBets for all new accounts and its legit...after you wager (not lose) $100, they will credit your account with $125 the next day...use PROMO CODE: DRFBSN...also live streams of all tracks and free pp's for the track that your betting.
 
Race 7: if #9 Chisholm draws into race off AE list not only will he be likely fav but will be tough to beat...others are #3 Dunkin Bend purchased for 11 times his stud fee in Apr @ Ocala sales where he worked 10.2 1f, huge trainer move at this meet...Asmussen with 2yo 2nd time starters Msw @ Sar L5 years 6 for 21 (29% $3.01 ROI)...showed speed in debut, so should here and 3rd place finisher (Base Case Scenario) was impressive winner on turf last weekend and stakes bound (8/29 With Anticipation Stakes). #5 Bold Visionary, Ramsey and Maker 1ster will be on my multi race wagers as well as #6 Souper Lucky, adds Lasix and broke from rail and had trouble in debut and I like Albertrani w/ 2yo 2nd time starters, good trainer angle.
 
Play, what do you think of Successful Dan in the Whitney? Think he might be able to take advantage of a favorable pace also, especially if Fort Larned and Cross Traffic burn some early fast fractions. If 10-1 or better I think he's worth a close look, and a horse to play underneath on exotics.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Play, what do you think of Successful Dan in the Whitney? Think he might be able to take advantage of a favorable pace also, especially if Fort Larned and Cross Traffic burn some early fast fractions. If 10-1 or better I think he's worth a close look, and a horse to play underneath on exotics.
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yup...prolly my 2nd choice in race and will be using in multi race wagers.
 
Race 8: #2 Fan Base...someone explain why after showing early speed in all of his previous races, what the f gave Joe Bravo the idea to take back and trail field by 8 lnths, then rush up 5 wide making a pre mature move entering stretch to take lead and be caught, guessing Laparoux gives him a better chance today, 2nd off trainer change...#4 and #5 others I like, sort of against one of the main contenders #3 Bim Bam and his 3 for 68 on turf last 5 years trainer, 1 for 26 Saratoga turf.
 
Play2win said:
Race 5: #10 Kate Is a Ten (10-1 ML) is one of my better plays on the card, tough trips in only 2 turf races and catches a weak bunch here off the claim for Serpe. Race 6: #4 Archer Hill (6-1 ML) was one of the most impressive 2yo winners of the meet last summer, then tried open company then dirt, now 2nd off layoff and adding blinkers, seems to be rounding into top form and I think is set up nicely to run a career best race here. Race 9: #2 Sweet Little Lion (6-1 ML) is another one of my top plays of the day, 2nd off layoff...trainer change to Mott...Rosario jumps on...2 back on dirt is a throw out race...3rd place finisher in last came back to win 75k stakes @ Calder registering a 88 beyer.
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more Race 9: already gave top pick in race but to talk about race a bit more...#3 Laugh Out Loud is likely fav and could win, but i'll be against in here...when made debut in states in Just A Game, I knew was Chad's as Schwartz often ships over and transfers to Chad's barn...but was shocked when opened at like 7/2 vs the likes of Steph's Kitten and Centre Court, maybe didn't like the turf condition @ Bel and does add Lasix, strong trainer angle but worth taking a shot against at a short price...#6 Ruthenia prolly has to be used, back class...winner of last (Laughing) won Diana last weekend, negative is 1 for 6 dist...#4 and #5 figure to be the pace setters and either could hold for a piece.
 
Race 11: is a fun race to cap...#4 Desert Bliss (8-1 ML) is my top pick, trainer prolly 0 for Toga life...has had some 2nds and is good enough trainer to win a couple at this meet, I like this horse and price vs field he's facing...that out weights any sort of trainer stat...3 back is a throw out since turf route (this sprint) and had trouble in last race...#1a Mary P. Jones is interesting, back to turf sprint...which was only lifetime win and route to sprint very strong trainer angle for barn that doesn't pop often...which makes angle even more dangerous...#3 Talmadge Hill could prove to be dangerous speed, and I have to use her...#7 has had tough trips and has to be used and #11 is obvious that must be used in pk 4's, 1 for 1 turf sprinting.
 
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Race 12: is awful, 25k md claimers...but connected w/ pk 4 so must figure this puzzle out...have to dig deeper but #2 is a must use off trainer change, very strong move for Weaver who's off to a great start to this meet and often does well @ Spa, only profitable trainer w/ as many starters as he's had over L5 years @ Saratoga...sprint to route also another strong trainer angle that fits here. #6 is also one of my contenders...more on Saturday...
 
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Claude McGaughey ‏<s>@</s>Claudemcgaughey <small class="time">2h </small> Orb had very strong work at Fair Hill this morning. Everyone very pleased.
 
Great job on the write ups Play, I won't be around today, which is probably a good thing for me as I didn't like the card all that much and I have been cold all meet long. I will be heading up to the Spa for some racing for the first time this Thursday and Friday and looking forward to it. My thoughts on the Whitney:

#1 Successful Dan: Injuries have kept this solid gelding off the track quite a bit as the 7 year old has only raced 5 times in the last 2.5 years, but usually runs big when he does hit the track. Didn't show well in the Foster in his last attempt, but a couple of impressive bullet works in the morning over the main track here may mean he's ready for a big one, too big a price on ML at 12-1 on this one who should sit 4-5 lengths back off the early leaders and be in a good spot to make a move in the lane. Will include in multi race wagers and underneath in exotics, and if still double digits on the tote board before post a small win wager.

#2 Much Macho Man is another horse who hasn't seen the track all too much recently either, this will be just his third race since he ran second in the BC Classic in November, he was pulled up in the slop in Gulfstream in January and ran 3rd in an overnight stakes in Belmont in June. Morning works not very impressive and don't think the current form puts him in the money here.

#3 Fort Larned has had an interesting year trying to follow up last years BC Classic win, stumbled badly and threw the jockey a step out of the gate down in Florida, showed nothing over a dead track in the Oaklawn Handicap, and then ran a monster going wire to wire in the Foster to win by 6+ lengths. Winner of this race last year, did so stalking the pace before a very nice middle move put him on a lead they couldn't catch. Think he is the most probably winner here in a similar fashion if he doesn't get caught up in an early speed duel with Cross Traffic but not much value against this field at what will be probably near even money. Will use in top 2 spots in some exotics and if the tote goes the opposite way than I expect and is greater than 2-1, will be a play to win for me.

#4 Cross Traffic a 4 year old Pletcher trainee new to the scene as he broke his maiden in first asking in January before posting 3 very impressive Beyers running a mile. Figures to be the early speed but was run down in his last 2 going one less furlong and don't see him being near the front at the finish line.

#5 Ron the Greek is a late running horse who should get the pace in front of him that he needs to run at, will be passing horses late just not sure if he can catch Fort Larned, if that one isn't used up too early and Successful Dan, if that one gets the jump on him in chasing down the leaders. Should get a fair price here and is one of 3 I think can win this.

#6 Alpha made the trip to Dubai in March and as we have seen in the past that usually takes something out of the horse and it takes some time for most to get back to form. Seems to really like running here as he is 3-3 over the course including wins in last year's Jim Dandy and a dead heat in the Travers. Co-winner of the Travers, Golden Ticket, ran second to Fort Larned in the Foster 6 lengths back. Only has one triple digit Beyer in his career (100 in Travers), but loves the course and did show a good work on the 27th, will be using underneath.

#7 Csaba has had some success in overnight stakes and has won 2 grade 3's, has shown some versatility in the past but is probably a step below the rest in here and would need a bunch of things to go his way to be involved in any way at the wire.

#8 Fast Falcon has shown some improvement under Zito this year and although he hasn't won a race since breaking his maiden last May, has picked up several smaller shares and may be able to add a decent price to the bottom of tri and super tickets.

This is Fort Larned's race to lose and if he runs his race should take this home, Successful Dan and Ron the Greek will be trying to run him down late and Alpha and Fast Falcon could collect a small piece.
 
How much you typically wager on these? I know little but just tailing you. Most my local does is daily doubles. No pick 4's.thanks for any advice
 
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