Saratoga 2017

Spa R1: #3 appears to be off form but those were dirt races and is much better sprinting on turf, win this course and distance last meet
 
HOF stake is very tough. Settled on the 5 at 5/1 but the lower prices are all logical and the 6, 8 and 9 are not impossible either. And don't forget the 10 is the one Grade 2 winner in the field, although his last effort was bleh and I think we're late for the party on that one.
 
Gandolf said:
HOF stake is very tough. Settled on the 5 at 5/1 but the lower prices are all logical and the 6, 8 and 9 are not impossible either. And don't forget the 10 is the one Grade 2 winner in the field, although his last effort was bleh and I think we're late for the party on that one.
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#1 could be tough in there as well
 
No one in the Hall of Fame would be a shock to me, #2 did have trouble in last but the stretch out and running style are against him here. Mellon course tends to favor closers as opposed to the Inner turf which seems to favor speed. I would be looking at using #1, 4, 5, 10
 
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#7 would shock me, but that's about it. A Pletcher at 48/1 right now? I should probably throw a couple on him just because.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
No one in the Hall of Fame would be a shock to me, #2 did have trouble in last but the stretch out and running style are against him here. Mellon course tends to favor closers as opposed to the Inner turf which seems to favor speed. I would be looking at using #1, 4, 5, 10
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You ran good off layoff the other day...saw that replay from two back again, ran huge...I think your sitting on a next out winner and will be watching. How did he come out of that race?
 
Play2win said:
You ran good off layoff the other day...saw that replay from two back again, ran huge...I think your sitting on a next out winner and will be watching. How did he come out of that race?
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Thanks, I thought he ran better than the results show, between the layoff and wasting energy before and during race fighting jockey, cost him a couple of lengths. He came out of it good and now we just hope they bring the race back again before the meet ends.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Thanks, I thought he ran better than the results show, between the layoff and wasting energy before and during race fighting jockey, cost him a couple of lengths. He came out of it good and now we just hope they bring the race back again before the meet ends.
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Agree, rank and head strong instead of being able to either run or relax
 
Play2win said:
Agree, rank and head strong instead of being able to either run or relax
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That's been his issue all along, that's why we tried the blinkers and then the gelding, but he doesn't want to relax and rate, does his best running when he is allowed to go a bit, he also doesn't have the best turn of foot so being on or near lead I think is best
 
Great race, Chad wins another turf stakes race, does he ever lose? They don't give away free money at the Spa.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
That's been his issue all along, that's why we tried the blinkers and then the gelding, but he doesn't want to relax and rate, does his best running when he is allowed to go a bit, he also doesn't have the best turn of foot so being on or near lead I think is best
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Agree with just let him go early, let him be comfortable
 
Working on Spa card, looked at WVA Derby and looked at Del Mar feature....I'm around to discuss any of those races...would love to post some Spa thoughts but could change because of weather
 
Cashed some tickets opening weekend and then not good at all last weekend...we'll see how this goes but seems like many money making opportunities for tomorrows Spa card
 
biff_chipmon said:
Thoughts on the Whitney, P2W?
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SPA R9: I'll be pretty surprised if #6 Gun Runner isn't the winner...Loooch racing owns both #1 and #3 and they should be a coupled entry but aren't, anyways #3 is entered in this race just to set pace (or at least try to)...probably not fast enough for #6 but if #3 wants lead #6 will be right behind...Gun Runner and Arrogate are the best two horses in training in handicap division...an off track may not be the best for Gun Runner and trainer Asmussen is 0 for meet so far but still not enough to beat #6 at probably his best distance...I will likely single 6 in multi race wagers...#5 Keen Ice will pick up pieces if they go too fast early but I'm not a fan of.
 
R1:
#2 Jason Servis is one of the best off the claim on turf and now adds blinkers, he's off to a great start at the meet with 8 of his 13 runners hitting the exacta
#3 throw out last because 7F on turf (closer to 1 mile) is way different than this 5.5f turf sprint but two and three back make him an interesting contender at 15-1 ml
#10 appears to be the early speed in here but trainer is 2 for 38 with his Nyra starters last 5 years
#11 first time for a tag
#6 exits race where off the pace runners did well
#8 trainer is very good mid Atlantic circuit but 0 for 22 Nyra last 5 years (juice)
#12 I'll have to give my boy Maker a look at 20-1 ml, not a fan of these turf cutbacks in sprints but two back makes him a contender
 
R3:
For whatever reason NY jockeys are not aggressive in these three turn turf races and a lot of them are won on the front end and there isn't much speed signed on in here...#1 was able to crawl in last and could repeat here...#2 exits same slow paced race and had a tough trip...tough to makeup ground when they go :51, 1:41, 2:27 and was shuffled back on inside before having to deal with traffic through the stretch
 
R4:
2yo's going 1 1/16 on turf, I tend to favor those with a race under their belt in these races as its very taxing on firsters....#6 ran pretty big in debut at Ellis Park when bet down to 4/5, broke dead last and made a very wide move to just miss and race didn't totally collapse because 3rd place finisher was pace setter...#10 is bred to appreciate stretchout and #5 is bred to appreciate both, surface switch and stretchout, adds blinkers today...I'll be against #8, Pletcher doesn't do well with 2YO firsters in turf routes
 
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R5:
#5 is the one to beat in here, has really stepped his game up since switching to turf and adding Lasix, off layoff today and has been training well but won't be value...#2 (10-1 ml) ran huge last time at Del in his NA debut with Lasix, broke last in slow paced race and angled through stretch to get the money and blew field away in gallop out, 2nd place finisher came back to win and was pacesetter and show horse was sitting 2nd so race wasn't a collapse, cool drf formulator stat Motion - 7:3-2-1 2nd off layoff, opt turf routes at Spa off a win, winners $9, $4, $39
#2 switches back to turf and ran well two back when not at his best distance
 
David Grening @DRFGrening
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Sassy Little Lila will scratch from De La Rose; is being strongly considered for next Saturday's G1 Fourstardave against the boys, per Cox
 
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