Saratoga 2017

Get it lad, wonder how the wet turf factored in for ya. Played 2/5/12 EXB, 7 horse took quite a bit of late money, wow.
 
I'm loading up today at Saratoga and Del Mar. Need some hump day action. Horses in () are horses that scare me or I would add if I had unlimited funds. I will be focusing on pick 5 and pick 4.

Saratoga
2: 68910 (1411)
3: 136 (49)
4: 12456 single 2
5: 567910 (4)
6: 124569 single 1
7: 38 (267)
8: 3478910 (5)
9: 235
10: 610 (121112)

Del Mar
1: 12367 single 6
2: 3458 (2)
3: 347811
4: 1456812 single 6
5: 15789 (1011)
 
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I'll be around if anyone wants to go over any fri or sat races...Sunday I'll be around here for Spa and Haskell Day cards but at the track fri,sat,mon
 
Friday isn't the best card you'll see but could be a good betting card, many wide open races much like last Fri


R1 cheap claimers but I see possible value in #1 - who is a state bred vs open company but has run vs much better and drops for tag here...those not familiar with trainer, he has the best sprinter in the country in his barn, Mind Your Biscuits...#1 Big Mara mud in last is throw out and slop two back in stakes throw out.

R2 seems like a good amount of early speeds and looking for a closer...came up with #7 (12-1 ML)...was awful last time but that was on turf, now back to dirt and won two back on dirt, winning from off the pace...similar effort puts him in the mix
 
There isn't much form for R5 on Fri but those are money making opportunities because any info you have puts you ahead of others...

#1 - 12% sire with 2YO firsters, bred for more distance and/or turf
#2 - race experience is big in these 2yo races with many firsters and could become even more important with this track surface this season...is a half to two good 2 yo's ...winner of debut race ran well in stakes next out...Rudy is 5 for 11 last 3 years with 2nd time starting 2yo's in state bred dirt sprints
#3 - well regarded frosh sire, watch board for action as Schettino firsters get bet when live
#4 - 18% sire 2yo firsters
#5 - 17% sire 2yo firsters but probably turf breeding, may still use underneath if near 20-1 ml price
#7 - 0 for 11 sire 2yo firsters
#8 - 14% sire 2yo firsters, Maker runners have been live to start meet, attracts Jose Ortiz
#9 - speed pedigree and speed in works, last work 7/20 very solid
 
R7 appears to be a good betting race and I could go a few different directions here but I will definitely be against 2-1 ml fav #9, I'm not trusting any Navarro horses at this meet (no juice) and he's 0 for his last 11 -b's in one turn dirt races, should have other speed to deal with #1?...my contenders #4,5,6,8
 
R8 is all about watching replay of Bel 7/2 R8

R9 Curlin Stakes: #3 Bill Parcells horse ran huge last time...looks to be the value
 
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That Bel 7/2 R8 Rocketry ran pretty big imo...3rd vs perfect trip winner that sat 2nd and place horse sat 3rd...much tougher trip than those two, spotted field 16 lengths at start and also some trouble through stretch
 
Play2win said:
That Bel 7/2 R8 Rocketry ran pretty big imo...3rd vs perfect trip winner that sat 2nd and place horse sat 3rd...much tougher trip than those two, spotted field 16 lengths at start and also some trouble through stretch
Click to expand...

Agree Rocketry ran the better race last time out and gets an upgrade with the rider, but I think Gauguin has a better chance to improve off that start 2nd off the layoff and move from across the pond. Also have to give Shamsaan a look just based on what Kiaran has been putting out there lately
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Agree Rocketry ran the better race last time out and gets an upgrade with the rider, but I think Gauguin has a better chance to improve off that start 2nd off the layoff and move from across the pond. Also have to give Shamsaan a look just based on what Kiaran has been putting out there lately
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Don't disagree with anything here...I respect anything McLaughlin at this meet, could be on improve with b's
 
Concern with Parcells horse is quality of field in that off the turf event he dominated in, also ML seems a little short, would like much better at 8-1 or so, which maybe happens if overlooked with the Pletcher and Brown runners
 
Of the two TAP runners I would prefer #2 Outplay...was a part of pace (chase in 3rd) that collapsed and held 3rd (side note...was originally impressed with West Coast performance but after watching again had perfect trip and setup and I don't like in Travers, even though everything Baffert ships wins)
 
I was against Whitmore in the Vandy on Sat, sucks that he can't go...nothing serious, minor foot injury during travel
 
Play2win said:
Of the two TAP runners I would prefer #2 Outplay...was a part of pace (chase in 3rd) that collapsed and held 3rd (side note...was originally impressed with West Coast performance but after watching again had perfect trip and setup and I don't like in Travers, even though everything Baffert ships wins)
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Agree with you here. As far as Baffert, i have to see his horses repeat those Belmont day performances, because taken as a whole it looks shady as shit to me, they all ran out of their heads that day, didn't just win but did it too easily. I know Abel came back and won but that race at least looked right.
 
Hoping Milaya draws in from the AE in race 6, showed a liking for the lawn in last and should appreciate the stretchout
 
I've been looking forward to Bowling Green so I can bet on Sadler's Joy...may end up being one of my biggest bets of the weekend
 
I have slaved over this card awhile, a very difficult sequence for the pick 5 but this is how I am playing it.

Saratoga P5
1: 4
2: 12689
3: 23467
4: 1457
5: 124

Good luck!
 
Any reason not to think Coal Front is a worthwhile single to close the early pick 5? This seems right in TAP's wheelhouse and the colt seems like an up and comer.
 
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