Rexy's 2015-16 EPL and UEFA plays...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
OK mates, let's try a season long thread to track my soccer this time around.

Should be an exciting season. I generally limit my betting to the Premiership and the UEFA Champions League. I'll occasionally throw in a UEFA Cup play here and there, and will dabble in high-stakes German, Spanish, Italian and French games as well as an occasional tip i get on a lower-level game from someone who is infinitely sharper than me.

Today, let's try these five:

Bournemouth -118 - 1.5u
Everton -118 - 1.5u
Sunderland +0.5 +115 - 1u
Crystal Palace DRAW +237 - 1u
Swansea +1.25 -112 - 2.5u

Swansea finished with their transfers weeks ago; they have had plenty of time to prepare for this game and have a leg up on Chelsea in that aspect, which cannot be overlooked. I also have them rated higher than most


Bournemouth is better than Villa and are cheap at home; same goes for Everton against Watford.

Sunderland plays better on the road than at home going back years, and I have CP a bit better than Norwich and this screams early-season draw.

GL today and all season, lads.

:shake:
:tiphat:
 
Rex,
I know the game has ended but curious why you would suggest that Bournemouth are better at Villa?
Is it because they are at home or overall? Because if it's overall then I would whole heartedly disagree with that statement.
 
probably on par or a smidge worse overall, but by playing at home, i would have thought to see something better from them in their first EPL game in forever.

1-4 and -3.04 on the season.

For tomorrow:
Liverpool +125 for 1.5u
 
the game ended up being one of those, "you had your chances" but they never finished them. Villa were definitely on the brink the 1H but managed to gut it out.
You'll see the Villa D a lot more tighter this year then leaking last year.
 
1-5 and -4.54 on the season. I guess City wasn't too good to be true against Chelsea Sunday. Seems like I lost when betting them at home many years in a row in that fixture.

Champions League qualifiers today; first game give me the Kazakhstani champs. APOEL missing Vander, Sathis Aloneftis and Urko Pardo to injury, and this is the longest road trip that anyone will make in these five fixtures. On the artificial pitch, I don't expect APOEL to adapt. The play is FC Astana -0.25 -103 for 1.5u.
 
Astana did it for me, though the Cypriots kept the pressure on in the second half, for sure. Today, I'm also on Brugge +1.5 -120 for a unit and CSKA +1/2 -108 for 1.5u, GL to me. ManU can't lay a goal-and-a-half to anyone at this point, and the Russians have a great historical record at this stage of the event and are already five weeks into the season while the Portuguese side just started playing meaningful games.
 
Brutal losses in the last two. Brugge played much of the latter stages with just 10 men and could not hold off Fellani's header in the 94th minute after the referee had indicated three minutes of stoppage time... and CSKA missed a penalty in the first half that would have put them in position to lead going into the last 10 minutes. Sigh.

Onto Wednesday, a bit chalkier this time.

Basel seems to outclass Maccabi Tel Aviv in virtually every aspect and they're playing like a side that wants to advance into Champions League knockout play when the calendar turns. Basel -209 medium 2u.

Celtic's high-pressure style of play should give Malmo all sorts of issues, especially in Glasgow with the raucous Hoops' supporters behind them. Celtic -0.75 -118 is a medium 2u play.

Shakhtar Donetsk and Rapid Wien have both shown the ability to score both in this term and in the past. This tie figures to perhaps be the highest scoring of them all. OVER 2.5 -105 medium 2u

Nothing in the other two for now, good luck tomorrow, lads.
 
Crystal Palace -122 small to med 1.5u
Leicester City PICK -120 small to med 1.5
Norwich DRAW +240 small to med 1.5u
West Ham PICK -117 small to med 1.5u


sorry for the late post; been absolutely buried today
 
Leicester City +1/2 -115 small to med 1.5u
Sunderland/Villa OVER 2.25 -112 med 2u
Liverpool UNDER 3 -120 small to med 1.5u
Tottenham DRAW +255 small to med 1.5u
Crystal Palace +1.5 -130 med 2u
Crystal Palace OVER 2.75 -118 med 2u

GL gents!

:shake:
 
Swansea City +1/2 -128 I bet, sorry for the late post. Doing for record-keeping purposes (though you can get the same line, 3rd minute, live etc)...

:shake:
 
Champions League time. Nothing better than Matchday 1 after four months of nothing from the best teams in the world.

11-10-1 and +4.43 on the season.

Malmo +2.5 -125 med 2u
PSG UNDER 3.25 -108 small to med 1.5u
Wolfsburg -108 med 2u
Galatasaray +0.75 -109 small to med 1.5u
Astana +2 -110 small to med 1.5u
Benfica UNDER 2.75 -108 small 1u
Monchengladbach OVER 2.5 -125 small 1u
Manchester City -109 big 3.5u
 
I am aware, so is deBruyne... but these two teams are polar opposites at this point in current form.

Wolfsburg continues to get no respect from the linesmakers.

PSV I wanted to bet but the Dutch teams struggle when stepping up in class and these guys ain't been here in several years.

Sharp friends of mine oppose me on Astana (or at least don't support me).

Two bad teams OVER guy is on the Sevilla total, which makes sense to me.
 
5-2-1 +0.42 ayer, as City was a big blow and also lost half-bet and the total when hedging on the Ibra info.

With that in mind, got a boatload of plays today but am treading a bit more lightly until we get a full matchday to evaluate these teams. I'll be watching them on tape when i get time from now until my Matchday 2 prep starts.



Roma +1 -110 small to med 1.5u
Leverkusen UNDER 3 -140 med 2u
Dinamo Zagreb +1 -108 small to med 1.5u
Big Arse OVER 2.5 -120 med to big 2.5u
Olympiakos +1.25 -110 med 2u
Chelsea -1.5 -128 small to med 1.5u
Dynamo Kiev PICK +104 med 2u
Gent UNDER 2.5 -123 med 2u


Roma plus a goal at home against anyone is an auto-bet. I realize Barca is as good or better than anyone, but they come off a very tough fixture at Atletico over the weekend.

Bayer Leverkusen has conceded just two goals at home in their last 12 matches at the Bay Arena. BATE is already halfway through its season and should be balanced at the back; it takes four to beat me and I can't see that happening.

Zagreb is in a great spot here, as Big Arse has a trip to Stamford Bridge looming Saturday morning (12:45 London kickoff). While the Croatian league offers very little in the way of competition, it should still be noted that Zagreb has played 41 straight matches without defeat, going back to last November. Goals should be had here as well, and a 2-1 scoreline would be just fine. I like OVER a bit more, just in case the Gunners have too much physical skill for DZ.

Olympiakos should be a bigger bet than this, especially since I decided to take 1.25 and not 1.5, but I'll exercise restraint. Still, the line looks way off. I have profited greatly off betting the Greeks at home the last few years in this competition. They have beaten Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Benfica and ManU in the last two years and were 3-0 in each campaign at the Stadio Georgios Karaiskakis. Munchen is banged up, with Benatia, Badstuber, Kirchhoff, Ribery and Robben all out.

Chelsea in bad form, but big step down in class here and they should overwhelm the Onthespot. Way cheaper now than at open so worth a shot on the Blues, despite the aforementioned look-ahead spot to Big Arse Saturday. Ivanovic, Matic, Terry and Diego Costa will start on the bench for this one.

I only have Kiev at a PICK; trying to beat Porto on matchday 1 has been a losing proposition over the years. In fact, they have won each of the last three seasons without conceding at this stage. Kiev is seven games into its season with six wins, and kept the majority of its team intact, whereas Porto is fielding a largely changed starting XI and just started Liga play. Plus I get the benefit of betting against Iker Casillas, who was walking up the 18th hole about 3 years ago.

Gent beat Bordeaux in an exhibition earlier this summer and won't be intimidated by French competition. UNDER intrigues me most here, as Lyon has conceded just two goals in five Ligue 1 games, while Gent has allowed just five in seven Jupiler League games.
 
Sunderland +1 +105 small to med 1.5
Newcastle UNDER 2.5 -120 small to med 1.5u
Leicester City PICK -105 med 2u
West Ham +2 -119 small to med 1.5u

Had Chelsea last night also +142 med 2u, the line flew in my face, didn't understand that.
 
GL rex,

Chelsea line was a bit peculiar as well, that's got to be one of the highest Chelsea ML at Stamford Bridge has ever been!
 
24-17-4 and +10.10

Leicester City +0.75 -105 med -2
Bournemouth PICK +118 small -1
Norwich City +0.25 -103 small to med -1.5
Soton UNDER 2.5 -127 med -2
 
Not the best of days Saturday; kept me off Palace and Everton Sun/Mon as well :(
-4.89

25-20-4 and +5.21 on the season

UEFA CL Tues

Barcelona -1.25 +101 medium 2u.

This line opened -384 or so at Pinny on the ML (-1.75 minus money on the handicap) and has dropped drastically since Messi's injury over the weekend. Yes, the Argentine played a pivotal role in the 7-1 thrashing at the Camp Nou three seasons ago against the Germans, but even with the numerous Barca injuries, I still see the European champs putting a good thrashing on this mid-level (from what I've seen) Bundesliga club. Score it in the 3-0 range, maybe 3-1 or 4-1.

Olympiakos +1.5 -121 small 1u.

Right line here is about 1 flat; don't want to reach too much here but can see the Greeks playing well in London, with a 1-goal loss being the worst expectation. Unfortunately, when things turned pear-shaped against Munchen in the last 10 mins or so in Pireaus, the Greek champs got frustrated and let in two at the end. That worries me because they're rarely headed on the homefront. Big Arse missing Giroud, Wilshere, Rosicky and Welbeck, with Coquelin, Flamini and Arteta having doubts for fitness and knocks as well. The depth could be enough to overcome but there is pressure on both sides coming off losses on Matchday 1. Fancy both sides to score, but 3 seems a fair total in game that I'll call for a 2-1 Arse win,gun to my head.

Zagreb +2.5 +101 medium to big 2.5u.

No respect at all once again for the Croatian champs, which is now unbeaten since last November, a span of 45 matches overall. Nothing like them getting a chance to test themselves against the best team in the world on the road, then. Dinamo Zagreb plays solid defense, disciplined and won't be intimidated by the bright lights of the big stage here. If i had any nads, I'd take +3716 to win for a half-unit or something. Why not?

Chelsea +0.25 -101 med 2u.

Chelsea opened the favorite (pick -124-ish) a couple of weeks. While the Blues aren't in very good form in England, there's little doubt that they outclass everyone in this group, and today will be the only match where you get them as an underdog. Make no mistake that Mourhino wants to come back to his former stomping grounds and get another win to take full control of the group. An easy take.


Thoughts on the non-bets: Surprised Roma is this cheap in Belarus; BATE has CL experience but they haven't had much success over the year, and the Italians seem to be rounding into form. I sniffed around and decided to pass.

Also surprised the Onthespot are this big of an underdog at home to Kiev; the Ukraines are clearly better and all, but they have no less than five regulars who will miss this game due to injury or illness. They are not Arsenal - guys with talent to replace them don't just grow on trees. Still, I passed this one as I want to see Tel Aviv do a bit better job of finishing after squandering several chances at Stamford Bridge on matchday 1.

Zenit has had domestic issues since the announcement of the coach leaving at the end of the season came out; they've gotten just three points in the last four league games. Gent would be a strong consideration at +1.25 but a few things are working against (did not arrive in time to work out at the stadium, travel schedule was botched; two red-card suspensions to starters leave them a bit depth-shy tonight; new experience playing on the road in Europe)... so I pass.

Really had a long look at the UNDER in France; Nine players from both sides are out and the Valencia keeper is going to play. Valencia's scoreline on Matchday 1 was probably not right - a few individual moments of brilliance from Witsel and Hulk gave a likely wrongful result to Zenit in a match where the Spanish side were better for long portions. Neither team playing well, and the "Two Bad Teams OVER" theory usually works well in Europe, so passed it.

GL today!

:shake:
 
Lose 4.52 on Tuesday.

Now 26-23-4 and +0.69 on the season, sigh.

Real Madrid/Malmo UNDER 3.5 -108 medium 2u.

I'll hesitantly go back to the well with St. Keylor between the pipes, as he's only given up one goal all season and Malmo doesn't pose much of a scoring threat today. RM had issues with breaking down Malaga over the weekend, dominating in a scoreless draw. A lot of these top-flight teams that score with great frequency often go on binges. Concurrently, they also have spells where they'll struggle. I guess I'll hope for 3-0 as a worst-case scenario, but i think 2-0 or 1-0 is more likely.

Shakhtar Donestk +1/2 -105 med 2u

Tough to back Shakhtar to win considering PSG is unbeaten since April and seems to be the classier side, but with the game being in rowdy Donetsk and it being a virtually must-win for the hosts, there seems to be some value there. I'll take a shot with the handicap.

PSV/CSKA DRW +315 medium 2u

One of my favorite DRAW bets of the group stage; CSKA at home will be a tough out, especially sitting on zero with the Dutch side on three. But injuries to the Army Men will inhibit their ability to get too aggressive here. The Dutch side know very little about CSKA and will play for one point in all likelihood in this spot.

Wolfsburg +0.75 even 2u.

While the Germans sit on 3 points to nil for MUFC, things have changed somewhat since Matchday 1. The hosts have seamlessly integrated young Anthony Martial into the lineup and making the Reds a much more dangerous threat in the attacking third. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg's untarnished record to start the season went up in smoke last Tuesday in Munich, as Robert Lewandowski did something we might never see again in a major soccer league - he scored five goals in less than 10 minutes in the second half! The hangover was tangible from that, as a home draw to lowly Hannover followed over the weekend. Expect a good bounce-back effort in this spot. A DRAW seems the most likely result, but I'll be kicking myself when they win outright and I don't.


Can't have City in their current form and with all of the injuries, but I would like to still go against Monchengladbach; but the interim coach and the two wins to get out of the relegation zone shows me that there are signs of waking up from the Germans. I'll kick myself when City rolls them, but need to see it before I invest.

Really hard to get a read in Turin; two bad teams = OVER seems an easy play. But each team somehow strapped up and got 3 points on Matchday 1, which has me too confused (and all of the injuries both ways) to get involved.

GL today!

:shake:
 
Little bit late on this but for future Shakhtar Donetsk no longer plays in Donetsk as its in the middle of a war zone. They play in Lviv which is on the complete other side of the country
 
Ended 1-3 and -3.1 with the half-bet loss on Wolfsburg. Shit Alex, I knew Shakhtar was playing in Lyiv last term - I didn't realize they were still located halfway across the country. Would have kept me off that one for sure. Chalk it up to laziness or overwork, who knows. Now 27-26-4 and -2.46 on the season.

To the international slate:

Leaning Drunks today at home; they got a result in Naziland earlier in the qualifying, but Germans in better form at this point, so I'll likely pass.

Poland/Scotland will be entertaining as each side needs a result; the Poles to ensure qualifying while the Scots need a win to stay alive. That means it won't likely be a tight game, though; the Poles lead all teams in scoring in the qualifiers and these two already played to a 2-2 draw in Warsaw. The Scots will have be aggressive from the get-go.

The play: Poland/Scotland OVER 2.25 +102 medium 2u

Lean Faroe at Hungary on the handicap; the Hungarians have only gotten five of their 13 qualifying points at home. Then again, the Faroe goalie stood on his head in a 1-0 loss to this team earlier in qualifying. No thanks.

Greece, no wins, 3 points in eight fixtures. Northern Ireland, first place, 17 points including a win in Greece earlier in qualifying. Yet the hosts are only slight favorites in Belfast today. Bookmakers must believe that since NI have never qualified for Euro before that historical reasons must mean something here, because who in the fuck wants to back the Greeks in their current form?

The play: Northern Island PICK -120 small to med 1.5u

Back in a minute with the rest
 
Romania games are turning into scoreless struggles; they've only conceded once in eight qualifying fixtures. Why isn't this total 1.5o -150 or 1.75 flatish?

I want nothing to do with the proceedings in Elbasan tonight; these two teams played an abandoned match with fans rioting and players in danger on the pitch in Serbia almost a year ago when qualifying was just getting started in this five-team group. The Albanians eventually were given the points based on the Serbian crowd. Who knows what to expect tonight? It's like a train wreck, you just can't turn your eyes away even though you "hope" nothing bad happens. Serbs have been fighting for thousands of years, lmao. Albania needs a result here to have a good chance to pass through for the first time ever, so nerves will be abundant on that side for sure.

No real thoughts in Braga as I made the Portuguese a 3/4 goal favorite. GL today, back in awhile with friendlies and long-awaited CONMEBOL qualifier plays...
 
Initially I liked over in Gibraltar game this morning, come to find out it wasn't available to me, for a reason I'm sure

Like N Ireland, these qualifiers are tough for me
 
Dramatic happenings in that group with Lewandowski's equalizer at the death in Scotland.

No time for writeups

CONMEBOL Thursday:

Paraguay/Venezuela DRAW +225 small to med 1.5u
Chile +140 med 2u
Ecuador +1.25 -104 small to med 1.5u
 
adding one friendly, Honduras -133 vs. Gustamela for 1.5u.

Really had the right side and was unfortunate to lose in Venezuela. Game was played in a driving rainstorm and neither team was capable of scoring in the run of play. Venezuela gift-wrapped Paraguay a goal in about the 86th minute, it was a bad flub job between the CB and the goaltender. Real frustrating loss there. Go Chile, go Ecuador, go Hondos.
 
good effort you icelandic turds.

Czech Republic DRAW +238 small to med 1.5u
Onthespot -1 -105 small 1u
Croatia UNDER 2.5 -120 med 2u
 
Sat out the Euro games today, was just having too much trouble getting a feel for what's going on there.

In play in Asuncion. Paraguay was lucky to win last week on the road but this game is a good spot. There is zero chance that the Argentines can lay anything with the team they're trotting out. Messi, out. Aguero, out. Garay, out. Biglia, out. Who is going to lead the offense; Di Maria or Tevez? Neither one is strong in those sorts of roles. Lavezzi trained in Pastore's position from last week. Zabaleta might play in place of Roncaglia; Karnevitter for Biglia. Still, they aren'tgood enough to lay anything on the road. These CONMEBOL games are the toughest qualifiers in the world for the road teams. Argentina has two tough ones ahead and should get three points tonight. Bottom line, I can't see it happening.

Bobadilla out for Paraguay, which is unfortunate and the offense will certainly struggle to score. Look for 1-1 or 0-0.

The plays: Paraguay +1/2 -120 med 2u
Paraguay UNDER 2 -105 small 1u
 
Most know of my fondness and affinity for Chile and I do believe that they and Colombia are the two best South American teams at this point. But this is a tough spot for them. Rival Peru welcomes the Chileans to Lima in a spirited rivalry between the two Pacific CONMEBOL sides; the Chileans have never won in Peru and while many think this is the time, I don't.

Peru lost in a steamy Barranquila to Colombia last week by a 2-0 scoreline; the same triumph that Chile enjoyed against Brazil in Santiago. Letdown spot for the Copa America champs? I'd say it's possible, considering it was their first win against Brazil in 15 years. Two Argentine coaches will do battle. Farfan will play for the hosts; he's been recovering from an injury. Chile has only scored more than 1 goal in Peru one time ever on the road; that was in 2009. I'm thinking in this hostile spot that they'll be lucky to escape with any sort of result.

The play: Peru +0.25 -101 med 2u.


While most know that I'm generally down on Brazil (and also down on Venezuela), it must be noted that Brazil has won 34 of their last 45 at home against regional foes, with no losses - and at -365 ish or so seem awfully cheap against one of the poor sides in the region. Venezuela has never scored on Brazilian soil. I would like to think that Brazil can get at least one, even with this weakened side, and secure the necessary three points here in the northern part of their country.

The play: Brazil -365 med 2u.
 
Little record keeping before Matchday 3.

Oct 8 went 4-2 and +4.34
Oct 10 went 0-3 and -4.95
Oct 13 went 3-1 and +2.98

Now 34-32-4 on the season and down less than a moderate dinner at a middle-of-the-road restaurant (seriously, it's -0.09 units).

To today:

Tough sledding for BATE as they step up in class but will certainly play with confidence after nabbing three points from Roma. Price looks too high at first glance but a multi-goal Barca win would not surprise with all the class they possess even without Messi.

Not sure what to make of things with Roma but this should be an entertaining game as the Italians have 14 goals in their last four games and Bayer Leverkusen has shown a propensity to score in these games to this point in the season, as well.

The play: Roma/Bayer OVER 2.5 -122 med 2u

Munchen has a chance to go for Arsenal's throat, as the Londoners have zero points through two matchdays and now face the doubleheader against perhaps the favorites of the entire competition. It's a virtual must for Arsenal to play aggressive and try to get the three points in this spot at the Emirates but that plays right into Pep's hands. Expect Munchen to be very explosive on the counter and pip the hosts, even without Robben, Ribery, Gotze or Badstuber. Martinez or Rafinha could feature off the bench and expect Lahm to be flying up from left back to aid the dangerous Munchen attack.

The play: Bayern Munich +105 med 2u

Olympiakos has shown they can get a result outside of Greece and have taken all the points in their league matches. Meanwhile, Zagreb has only one loss in its last 48 matches but that was on Matchday 2 when Munchen anally violated them. This is a most-win spot in the home end of the doubleheader for Zagreb, but I can't see much separation here and think the Greeks will be content with a DRAW heading home, where they'll be a decent favorite on Matchday 4.

The play: Olympiakos/Zagreb DRAW +235 med 2u

Don't have a good feel for the Group C matches at all and believe both are lined about right. Gun to head a lean to Chelsea and to Porto UNDER but no plays in those two.

Think Gent will continue to battle and scrap for 90 minutes as the Belgian champions won't be totally outclassed here. Valencia is in good form of late but this won't be easy, and the line is about a half-goal too high.

The play: Gent +1.5 -120 med 2u

No real feel for Zenit these days; they're getting pummeled in the Russian league by 10 points, just like Lyon is getting hammered in Ligue 1 by the same margin. Tough to say for sure what will happen but the pressure is on Lyon to get some sort of result, and I wouldn't be shocked if they get at least a draw, but Zenit's form in the two Champions League games was far better than what we've seen from them in the league (Valencia did dominate for large portions of the game in Spain, but individual efforts have been great for the commie side).

GL today fellas!
 
Frustrated with a 2-2 chop yesterday because I felt like I did better than that. OVER was always right at the Bay Arena, Gent probably deserved a point and that match it could be argued was more exciting than the 4-4 one, in terms of end-to-end action. Zagreb losing outright at home was a disappointment and obviously Munchen had 72 percent possession, but I didn't handicap the desperation that the Gunners would play with. It was a "must win" for them, or at least to get something, whereas Munchen didn't have nearly the urgency. I'll do better the next time this situation pops up in group play...

Shakhtar just beat Kiev to tie their Ukranian counterparts at the top of the table and are clearly in-form in league play. Can they carry it over to the CL? Tough to say. Malmo has played well at times against PSG and Real Madrid but are physically overwhelmed over the course of 90 minutes. That shouldn't be the case today, and with two teams sitting on zero points, we should see some fireworks today.

The play: Shakhtar Donetsk/Malmo OVER 2.5 -115 med 2u

Highly anticipated group stage match today in Paris as PSG welcomes Real Madrid to town in a battle between teams that are unbeaten in all formats this season.

Starting to talk about betting an UNDER can be a nerve-racking proposition when you look at the PSG lineup and see Ibrahimovic, Cavani and either Di Maria or Moura in the trident... and then you see Real Madrid has 18 goals in La Liga games to top the league in that category. Still, the UNDER is a play I've looked forward to since the draw.

Real Madrid hasn't conceded in at home this season since Navas took over between the pipes, while many of their offensive weapons (James, Benzema, Bale) are out injured. Los Blancos really only has three scoring options in its projected starting XI today, though one of them is Cristiano Ronaldo, so you're always flirting with fire (as I have already once this year in a CL game) betting them UNDER. Rafa Benitez's tactics have seemed a bit more subdued to me this term than Ancellotti's side was in 2014-15. I'd be surprised if either team scores more than once, and it's a hold-your-noser with all this talent on the pitch, but...

The play: Real Madrid/PSG UNDER 2.5 -105 med to big 2.5u


Group B is certainly interesting, as all four teams have a win and a loss in what's shaping up to be a dogfight. It's imperative for CSKA Moscow to defend the Arena Khimki in this visit from Manchester United. The Army Men have turned the Khimki into a fortress in sprinting to what is likely an insurmountable lead in the Russian league - they've gone six months without defeat at home and red-hot Seydou Doumbia has nine goals in his last nine games. ManU has won five of their last six and are now just two points adrift of crosstown rival Manchester City in the EPL. The Red Devils didn't train in Moscow and might not take to the quirky pitch at the Khimki. Still, there's enough firepower to see a result, although it might not be the desired three points from coach Louis Van Gaal.

The play: ManU/CSKA DRAW +240 med 2u

Wolfsburg is unbeaten in 27 Bundesliga matches at home, but I don't see any value here against PSV with them being about a 1.1 goal favorite, which is how I basically lined the match going in.

Astana is waving the white flag before they even hopped on the plane to make the 3,524 mile flight from Kazakhstan to the Estadio Vincente Calderon. They face a critical league match Sunday against Kairat Almaty that could decide who wins the league title, so eight regulars stayed at home. The fight time is roughly equivalent of a Dallas-to-Honolulu trip or an Anchorage-to-Jacksonville trip for those in the US that don't quite comprehend just how far away Astana is from any of the other 31 clubs in the CL group stage. I was trying to lay 2 goals with just a small amount of juice yesterday when I got this news but still having issues there with figures from last week (i got clobbered and need to get some money over there) so they cut me off until it gets fixed. Thus, I've missed the line move that's been roughly equivalent to .4 goals and refuse to lay a bad number. Atletico Madrid prolly wins about 5-0 or 5-1 but I'll pass. They did lose at once on home grounds in this term, so who knows? It would be a shock if Astana plays to within even one goal to me with this lineup, though.

Something will have to give in Istanbul - Benfica has not won in four previous trips to Turkey, and host Galatasaray hasn't won in any of their last 10 European fixtures. Then again, maybe it doesn't...

The play: Benfica/Galatararay DRAW +245 med 2u


Can't put my finger on either Juventus or Borussia Monchengladbach. Just as I was ready to write BM off as outsiders, interim coach Andre Schubert has led them to four straight Bundesliga wins and a five-goal road onslaught at Frankfurt over the weekend. Meanwhile, Juve's sluggish Serie A start has me relucant to back them, even though they've managed two wins on the first two matchdays of this competition. Price seems a tad high and lean dog but pass for now.

Line looks about right to me in Manchester. I've been a sucker for City one time too many, and with injuries to Aguero, Clichy, Delph and David Silva, it's easy to pass on the pricetag today. MCFC has just five wins in their 15 CL home games and lost on matchday at home. Sevilla has just three wins in 11 matches in all competitions and have struggled at times, but I can't ignore some of the success La Liga teams have had against EPL clubs in this competition in recent years, and City is as big a victim as anyone in those scalps. They might look like the 5-goal juggernaut they were against Bournemouth over the weekend, but they won't get my money today.

GL fellas...
 
Crystal Palace +1/2 -106 med 2u
Stoke +0.25 -120 small 1u
Swansea +0.75 -110 med 2u
Swansea +370 small 1u
West Ham +195 small to med 1.5u


GG Chelsea, you twunts
 
After a 2-2 +3 unit Matchday 3 Weds two weeks ago and a 2-3 and -3.7 Premiership over the weekend... now sitting 40-39-4 and -0.79 on the year. Bleh.

Monchengladbach is in as good of form as any team in the entire tournament currently, with the new coach continuing his unbeaten record to this point. The Germans have never lost to Italian competition at home.

The play: Borussia Monchengladbach +0.25 -109 small 1u

Not sure how Manchester United can lay a goal to someone when they can't score. The last time the hosts found the back of the net was in Moscow on Matchday 3. I'll take the Red Commie Bastards and a goal as they should get plenty of chances to pip the hosts on the counter.

THe play: CSKA Moscow +1 even med 2u

Should be a tight game between PSV and Wolfsburg on Dutch soil. The hosts need some sort of result and will likely be pressing for one. The total got away from me, so I'll focus my efforts on a DRAW here, thinking perhaps 2-2.

The play: Wolfsburg/PSV DRAW +260 med 2u

Wash, rinse, repeat at the Bernabeu in regards to goalless football.

The play: PSG/Real Madrid UNDER 2.75 -101 med to big 2.5u

Sevilla need to play for three points in this spot, and that should mean a wide open game. Even though the Matchday 3 fixture ended 2-1, it could have been much more. Both teams are better offensively than on defense and I can forsee a 2-2 or so type game here.

The play: Manchester City/Sevilla OVER 2.5 -128 med 2u

How can Shakhtar Donetsk lay this to anyone? They ain't even scored a goal in the entire competition to this point.

The play: Malmo +1.5 +107 small to med 1.5u
 
3-2-1 and +1.5 ayer. Let's hope for similar success today.

Roma in a must-win spot today, and even off a loss at the weekend, should find enough form and have enough class today at home to get the full three points.

The play: Roma +102 med 2u

Deep breaths, a true hold-your-noser today in Spain, but the line seems too high for Barca, which have several injury concerns and are likely only worried about doing whatever it takes to get the points here.

The play: BATE Borisov +2.5 +101 small to med 1.5u

After what happened in London a fortnight ago, it's clear that Bayern Munchen got caught looking ahead at the weekend when they were held goalless at Eintracht to drop points for the first time in a Bundesliga game this term. The Gunners were impressive 3-0 winners at Swansea and are level at the top of the EPL with Man City after winning their fifth straight league game. Still, this is a different beast today in Munich and do not be surprised to see the hammer drop on Arsenal, despite their rich form. No less than nine featured regulars will miss this game for Arsenal, and despite the impressive depth at Arsene Winger's disposal... gonna be tough for the lads from north London to compete for 90 minutes against an opponent that is seething after the 2-0 reverse at the Emirates.

The play: Bayern Munchen -1.25 -114 med to big 2.5u

Lean to Zagreb +1.25 in that other group fixture, but they've lost four of their last seven and seem to be falling out of form.

Lean Zenit at Lyon but the Russians haven't been playing well in league games; the proce looked good here but some quick research shows me I missed the best numbers, so will pass.

Taking a flier on Gent again today at home. They controlled large parts of the Matchday 3 loss (2-1) at the Mestalla. Must-win for the Belgian champs to have european hopes after Christmas, so expect a hair-on-fire effort; just hope they don't get pipped on the counter.

The play: KAA Gent +0.25 -112 med 2u

Could never have Chelsea the way they're running, but not really interested in Dynamo Kiev either, after seeing their record in England (last 12 games, 10 losses and two draws), and with Chelsea running so bad this one got a little too cheap to consider the dog. Made Porto -1 flat favored against the Onthespot in Tel Aviv and it's running a smidge higher than that, but not enough for me to bet.

GL today fellas...

:shake:
 
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