Rexy's 2015-16 EPL and UEFA plays...

3-2-1 and +1.5 on Tues and 3-1 +5.04 Weds... very unlucky to lose BATE as well, BS penal in the first half f'ed me. Now 46-42-5 and up 5.75 on the year.

Leicester will be looking to join ManCity and Arsenal at the top of the table with a win at home today against Watford. Easier said than done, as Watford has won two straight, but Leicester seems to be rounding back into early-season form, and can score in a variety of ways.

The play: Leicester -108 med 2u

West Brom won at Old Trafford last year. As ugly as the results have been for van Gaal and his squad, they can't lay this price to anyone.

The play: West Brom +1.5 -122 small to med 1.5u

Two off-form teams battle at Carrow Road; only one win combined between the Swans and Norwich City in the last six for each. Norwich captain Russell Martin is suspended for a game, weakening an already suspect defense. My 2 Bad Teams OVER guy back home is all over this one; he got me on it also.

The play: Swansea/Norwich City OVER 2.5 -107 small to med 1.5u

Lean Soton at Sunderland, especially with the hosts tinkering with their formation after the touchdown that Everton dropped on them last weekend. Price is just in a range that's a smidge too high for me (wanted something along the lines of pick -30 ish tops).

Two top-nine sides tangle at Upton Park. Everton have not lost to West Ham in 14 league games; Lukaku has six goals in six games for the Blues against the Hammers.

The play: Everton +0.25 -116 small to med 1.5u

GL today!
 
2-2 and -0.68 on Saturday, lost West Brom on a penal at the death; dem's the breaks. Now 48-44-5 and up 5.07 on the season.

International break time.

No play in today's Euro qualifier for now, though if the price in Oslo creeps up much more on the hosts, the Hungarians will be worth a look at +0.75 -105 or better. They narrowly missed qualifying as the top third-place team and with the total at just two, you'd have to think they're gonna want to take an away goal back to Budapest.

To the CONMEBOL qualifiers - what an impressive slate of games today. Winless Venezuela and Bolivia do battle in an late afternoon showdown in La Paz. The Venezuelans probably have the more talented team but it's never easy to win in this atmosphere. Lean Bolivia but they can't lay a half-goal to anyone, ever. Pass.

Uruguay already went to La Paz and won; they play in the other altitude test of the qualifying today in Quito. Each team has won two games to start qualifying and these are the teams at the top of the table. Uruguay gets back striker Edinson Cavani, who was suspended for two games for his role in the bizarre incident with Chile's Jara in the Copa America. Luis Suarez is still suspended, so it's impressive that they were able to get six points in their first two fixtures. Of course, each got a shot at Bolivia, so that certainly helps matters. Ecuador's shaky defense cost it in the Copa America but coach Quinteros has done a good job by squeezing space, placing the defensive and first midfield lines closer together. Uruguay has always tried to grind out results under savvy coach Oscar Washington Tabarez. And while they were impressive in the 3-0 throttling of Colombia, that was at home. It's asking a bit too much for the Uruguayans to get a result in Quito in a late afternoon start.

The play: Ecuador even med 2u


The Chileans have tapped a rich vein of late, winning the Copa America they hosted this summer and sprinting out to two qualifying wins. Colombia welcomes back forward James Rodriguez after he missed the first two qualifiers, including a 3-0 thumping absorbed at the Centenario to Uruguay. Now the hosts have a chance to put some distance from themselves and Colombia, who scored just one goal in the Copa America in four games and were a little lucky to beat Peru in the opening round. Jose Pekerman could be on his way out; president Luis Bedoya abruptly resigned recently. I can see them getting a goal, especially with talented Felipe Pardo getting called up after having a strong start to his Champions League campaign with Olympiakos. With the Chileans coming forward with their fullbacks, there should be fireworks in this one. I fancy the Chileans to handle their business at home, at least 2-1 if not 3-1.

The plays: Chile -1/2 -142 med 2u
Colombia/Chile OVER 2.25 -115 med 2u

Argentina hosts Brazil as the two legendary sides of the western hemisphere meet for the first time in a competitive fixture since 2009. While the Brazilians have a win and a loss, the Argentines have but one point from two fixtures. Leo Messi missing those games (and these) haven't helped matters, but all three of the Argentine strikers are out again. That means no Tevez and no Sergio Aguero for this pivotal battle in Buenos Aires. Zabaleta and Garay are also out. A trip to Colombia looms for Argentina, and there is a real possibility that they'll be stuck on one point through four games.

Meanwhile, the Brazilians get back Neymar from his four-match suspension stemming from his childish actions in Chile. He's in better form than anyone, netting 10 times in his last seven appearances for Barcelona. Still, you can be sure Argentina will play with its hair on fire in this one. I just don't see much separating the sides. Argentina hasn't scored in 181 minutes, which seems so hard to believe. Perhaps in-form Higuain can chime in up front; he's got nine goals for Napoli to tie the top of Serie A scorers. The Estadio Monumental will be rocking. These sides have met 96 times in 101 years. The results? 36 wins each, with 24 draws. Literally nothing has separated them for over a century, and nothing will tonight, either.

The play: Brazil/Argentina DRAW +235 medium 2u

GL today, can't wait to watch these fixtures...

:shake:
 
Got my DRAW in Buenos Aires rained out, and Chile was only able to dent the Colombian defense for one goal, so it was a frustrating day, especially now that the price is gone in Argentina.

I got only 1 unit small now on DRAW +215.

One play today in Europe, now that the hosts are plus-money. Got Bosnia & Herzegovina at home today against the Drunks. Mehmed Bazdarevic took charge of the team less than a year ago and they have responded by playing as well or better than any team in Europe in 2015, winning five of six games since his appointment to roar into the playoffs after mustering a paltry two points through four fixtures in qualifying. The Drunks will get some of their guys back in Dublin, but at the rowdy Stadiun Bilino polje in Zenica, I think B&H will strike early and at least twice. I like OVER but could see it being 2-0 so will just stick to the side. The Drunks have multiple injured goaltenders and are missing John O'Shea and Johnathan Winters to bans as well as Shay Given and Shane Long to knocks. Not a good spot to be without most of their key firepower. Bosnia gets it done today.

The play: Bosnia & Herzegovina +115 med 2u
Bosnia & Herzegovina +167 first half small to med 1.5u
 
Do you get team totals in these qualifiers? If so wondering what B&H are, I like them to get at least 2 as well. GL today Rex.
 
there are a couple of my outs giving me those odds. Pinny is taking them for a dime on the CONCACAF games, for example. I would reckon to think that B&H team total was probably about 1o20 or so tops
 
Hungary +0.25 -111 med 2u

No respect at all for the Hungarians, who have already won in Oslo and had a foot in the door before Turkey scored late to pip them as the top third-place qualifier. Today, they finish the job.
 
I see very little difference between the two sides that will square off with spot in France on the line tonight at the Aviva. The Drunks got their necessary away goal in the first-leg draw on the road, and their rowdy fans could spurn them on here, but the more likely outcome is a Pjanic goal sometime in the middle of the game, with the Irish equalizing late, and a 1-1 score after 90 minutes. It's anyone's guess as to what happens in the extra time and possibly in penals.

The play: BIH/Drunks DRAW +210 med 2u

GL!
 
Interesting proceedings in Dublin...seemed BIH largely had the best of it in the first half but the handball led to the Drunks goal on the penal, and with the 1-0 lead they were able to frustrate the visitors and eventually get a second.

Lots to get through today, so let's start in Europe.

Ukraine being favored on the road is difficult for me to believe in this situation. They won the first leg 2-0, but that far from guarantees anything. In fact, these two teams have both been in this position before. Ukraine took a 2-0 lead to France in the 2014 World Cup playoff, only to succumb 3-0 and not qualify. Meanwhile, Slovenia trailed Russia 2-0 in the 2010 World Cup playoffs, yet recovered to advance to South Africa. The hosts have won 10 of 12 at the raucous Stadium Ljudski vrt since the renovation in 2009. Slovenia's coach believed that his team had control of the ball and the game in Lviv (especially in the second half), but were not aggressive enough and did not take their chances. That won't be a problem today in Maribor, where the host fans will be at full throat. Expect a one-goal win for Slovenia - at least.

The play: Slovenia +207 medium to big 2.5u


To CONMEBOL...

It's easy to see just how hard it is to play on the road only by looking at the line in Ecuador-at-Venezuela game. The visitors top the table with a perfect 9 points thru three fixtures; the Venezuelans are in dead last, on zero, yet are only a small underdog at this point later today. Ecuador has won five straight overall going back to its 2-1 win over a Mexican "B" side in the Copa America. Venezuela has no wins in its last five, with a home draw being the only point it picked up in the process. Losses to Honduras in a friendly in September and to Paraguay on Matchday 1 have also happened since then, and even in Guayana, I can't see Venezuela in its current form winning the game against the red-hot Ecuadorians, eager to maintain their perfect record.

The play: Ecuador PICK -118 med 2u

Gerardo Martino is certainly in some hot water as the head coach of Argentina; he's only helped get two points through three fixtures. He'll really be feeling the heat today, literally and figuratively, when they travel to steamy Barranquilla to face the Colombians in the midday heat. Martino does get a bit of good news, as Gonzalo Higuain has been cleared to play. This is the last official game of the calendar year for the Argentines, so a result would be welcome, and three points would be great. Still, that'll be easier said than done as they face a Colombian side that's in strong form after getting a deserved draw in Chile last week and have one extra day of rest and preparation for this one.

Lots of casualties remain on the injury/suspension front for both sides, however. Messi, Aguero, Tevez and Pastore are all out, with RB Roncaglia suspended and midfielder Lamela doubtful for the visitors. For Colombia, Martinez sprained his ankle Thursday and will miss, while Sanchez and Arias are suspended. These two last met in the Copa America in Chile a few months ago, fighting to a 0-0 draw. The same sort of result seems in the cards today, but it's awfully tough for me to bet UNDER 2 goals with all of the offensive talent on the pitch for both sides, despite all of those on the sideline. A slight lean to Colombia, but would only want to bet at PICK -135 or better. Pass for now; could add something if I see a discrepancy in the expected starting lineups.

Confused about how Paraguay can lay 1.5 to anyone, especially with Bolivia's ability to counter. It seems this game would play right into their hands, but hard to put too much stock in a win over Venezuela at this point, and before that the Bolivians had been outscored in their previous four losses 14-1 going back to Copa America. Paraguay has won all 8 WC qualifiers against their guests at home, with Bolivia scoring just three goals total in those games. I'm not enamored with either side, so it's an El Paso here with an UNDER lean.

If revenge has ever been a motive to play a team in soccer, Uruguay will have it today. Go back to the Copa America match earlier this summer, a hard-fought Chilean 1-0 win at home in the quarters. Chile's Gonzalo Jara put his finger in Edinson Cavani's butthole, prompting (what to me was) a mild response from the PSG forward by raising his hand to Jara's face. The ref never saw the initial action, but carded Cavani. Jara was subsequently suspended for the last two games. Now the venue shifts to the Centenario. This match has been sold out for almost a month, so it's clear that at least the Uruguayan fans want revenge. In this fixture four years ago (almost to the day, Nov. 11, 2011), Uruguay got four goals from Luis Suarez to thrash the weakened Chilean side, 4-0. The hosts won their first two qualifiers before getting upended 2-1 in Quito last week. Chile also won their first two qualifiers before getting drawn at home to Colombia last week. The Chileans seem to play a more wide-open style on the road, though that could just be the opposition. That side, this total looks cheap to me as I can see at least 3 if not 4 goals being scored.

The play: Chile/Uruguay OVER 2 -130 medium 2u

In the nightcap, Brazil hosts Peru. The sides met this summer for the first time in six years at Copa America in Chile, with the Brazilians netting a 2-1 win. Still, Peru's appearance in the semis of the tournament suggested potentially bigger things to come, though that hadn't happened until Friday's win in Lima over Paraguay. The Peruvians are the biggest dogs on the card; they haven't beaten Brazil since 1985 and the hosts have never lost in Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador. Toluca wing player Christian Cueva returns from suspension and that should aid the Peru attack. I can see a 2-to-1-type game, but am not really interested in betting it.


To CONCACAF... working now, will post shortly...
 
Gustamela dropped critical points in its opener at home to Trinidad & Tobago in a 2-1 loss and will need to win today at St. Vincent's and the Grenadines if they want to have any hope of trying to get out of this group and into the hexagonal. I can't lay this sort of price with them on the road, even against the worst team still playing in CONCACAF.

Mexico is at minus-money at Honduras? Do the linesmakers and betting public read history books? The last time the Mexicans won in Honduras was 1993, and it's been 50 years since the Mexicans won in sultry San Pedro Sula. The Estadio Olimpico will be a cauldron at 3 pm kick, with a temp in the low-90s with 80-plus percent humidity. It's easily one of the most difficult stadiums for visitors in all of CONCACAF. Jorge Luis Pinto said he's been preparing for this game since the draw came out four months ago and it looks like he'll deploy a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 formation in a battle against his fellow Colombian counterpart Juan Carlos Osorio. While Honduras simply isn't as good as it once was, this environment should be enough for the hosts to get a result of some sort today at a place where they haven't been beaten in four years by anyone.

The play: Honduras +1/2 -107 medium 2u

Jamaica missed coach Winfried Schafer in its opener, a shock 2-0 defeat to Panama in Kingston. The Reggae Boyz must now regroup in a hurry when facing Haiti, as each team is looking to get off the schnide. These teams met in the Gold Cup quarters in July on US soil, with the Jamaicans edging Haiti 1-0 in an entertaining and high-paced game. I lean Jamaica at the current level but would have to get something around +0.25 even money or so to consider an investment.

The USA could have issues in Port of Spain later, as Trinidad & Tobago is certainly playing with confidence after a solid Gold Cup and a road win to open up this stage of qualifying. The Americans flew down right after beating St. V&G in St. Louis last week. Forward Kenwyne Jones can cause major problems for anyone in the region up front and the US central defense will be tested by him, as well as speedy midfielders Khaleem Hyland and Joevin Jones. T&T has always played the USA tight at the Hasely Crawford Stadium, even when not in as good a form as they're in now. Perhaps the US's 6-1 win last week will give some players confidence who had been struggling in red, white and blue this calendar year. Tim Howard will be back inside the pipes tonight. The Soca Warriors are a dangerous foe, so I'll call for a draw.

The play: USA/T&T DRAW +237 med 2u


Canada hasn't won a World Cup qualifier in central America since 2004. The last four games, dating to 2008, were losses of 3-1, 2-0, 8-1 (Honduras in 2012, that propelled Honduras into the Hexagonal) and 1-1 against Belize two months ago to get them to this level. The Canadians did get the three points by beating Honduras in the first round, and this appears to be their best chance to win in this part of the world in those many years. That's because El Salvador's side is a mess, to put it bluntly. The Savior didn't even get a shot on goal at Azteca the other night and are rolling out a B-level and C-level side because of ongoing turmoil and trouble with the players and the governing body. A mass boycott forced coach Maradiaga to pick an inexperienced squad for these two fixtures. These two teams met in July's Gold Cup, with the final being 0-0. The conditions at Estadio Cuscatlan could be the most difficult thing for the guests, although the nighttime start should make things tolerable for the superior Canucks.

The play: Canada +131 med 2u

Be back with a detailed writeup about CR/Panama after i take a break. Been at it 6 hours today.
 
Costa Rica got its campaign started with a crucial three points in Friday's win against Haiti, but the Ticos are really banged up at this point. Keylor Navas didn't get called in for these qualifiers, leaving Patrick Pemberton to man the pipes admirably. He saved the win late with a diving stop of a Haitian shot that seemed sure to knot the score at 1. Midfielder Celso Borges has a foot fracture that will keep him out up to four months. Forward Johan Venegas and defender Oscar Duarte were diagnosed with injuries after the game and won't be available tonight. Everton's Bryan Oviedo and Yeltsin Tejeda weren't featured in these fixtures, leaving the Ticos down six starters going into this fixture.

Coach Oscar Ramirez has mixed and matched his lineups in his first five games as the coach; he's back to featuring five defenders, much like Jorge Luis Pinto did during the Ticos' run to the World Cup quarters last year. Weather could be a factor at Rommel Fernandez Stadium, as thundershowers are forecast all afternoon and roughly up until around kickoff time, so the pitch could be a mess. Still, I'm not interested in going UNDER 2 at minus all this jugo. Panama certainly impressed in their win at Jamaica, but in this second game in six days, Panama's veterans might struggle. There isn't much depth there, and while some experienced legs for the hosts, there are also some old ones. Pass.
 
More Canada for me, +163 for another unit. Not seeing where the money for El Salvador is coming from and frankly, don't care.

:shake: GL to me
 
Ended up going 8-8 and +9.33 in all that international shit this week.

Now 56-52-5 and +14.40 on the season.

Everton -0.75 even med 2u
Leicester City PICK -120 med 2u
Stoke/Soton OVER 2.25 -115 small to med 1.5u
West Brom +1 -107 small to med 1.5u

Waiting on Man City, as I expect a better price
 
One from La Liga today.

Navas in net for the hosts; no Messi for Barca. Looking for a 1-1 or 0-0 scoreline.

The plays:
Real Madrid/Barca DRAW coming after the line moves towards RM

UNDER 3 +110 medium at the Bernabeu 2u
 
day turned pear-shaped in a hurry after the early English shit.

West Ham +1 -115 med. Hammers already have won at Arsenal, at Liverpool, at Man City, at Crystal Palace and have only one road loss in six fixtures to this point. Not asking too much to go northwest 11 miles or so and bring back some sort of result. Payet missing could hurt, but there's no way this can be the right line. Played this team to a 2-2 draw at White Hart Lane last season.
 
Roma doesn't win on the road in the CL and doesn't stop anyone (i think no shutouts in last 14 games). Not good when facing an in-form Barca. Goals galore at the Camp Nou today, and the visitors should be good for one at least themselves.

The play: Roma/Barca OVER 3.5 -105 med 2u

Arsenal's injury list is a mile long; a case could be made for their injured XI beating the current starting XI. Mikel Arteta and Francis Coquelin are added to a list of guys who will miss today that already includes Wilshire, Walcott, AOC, Rosicky, Ramsey and Welbeck. Zagreb will miss Pivaric and Schildenfeld but they, like the Gunners, have nothing to lose and will look to pip the hosts on the counter. They beat the Big Arse back on matchday 1 and will be competitive in this spot.

The play: Zagreb +2 +103 med 2u

This line is basically an insult to the Greek side, who will progress automatically with any sort of result today. The 3-0 score on matchday 1 (yes, I had Olympiakos that day also) was hardly representative of how close the match really was, as the Germans scored twice in the latter stages of the match. Line should be -1.625 or so at the most.

The play: Olympiakos +2.25 +102 med 2u

Gent gets no respect in this tournament. It feels like I'm on them every time they play.

The play: KAA Gent +0.75 -102 med 2u

GL!
 
Ended 3-2 and +2 on the last matchday, though prolly should have been 3-1-1 and +4, but we move on. Now 62-58-5 and +11.96 on the season.

PSG/Shakhtar with really nothing to play for. Should be goals galore in Paris.

The play: PSG/Donetsk OV 3 -110 small to med 1.5u

Lean Malmo on the handicap, but again, i didn't bet these four groups on Matchday 5 because there's nothing to play for here. Malmo last game for this coach and I guess they can make the UEFA Cup, but who GAF?

ManU goalless in five of last nine games, and Wolfsburg coming off a home loss (first in 29 Bundesliga games). Would expect a spirited defensive effort knowing a draw puts them through, and no Rooney for the Red Devils, either. How can they score?

The play: ManU/Wolfsburg UNDER 2.5 -130 med 2u

I'll make a small case for CSKA first. PSV can finish first or last, with one goal either way being the obstacle. They cannot count on getting a draw and "hoping" ManU doesn't find a way to win in Germany. They'll be on the attack from the get-go and CSKA is a good team on the counter. So that, and the fact that this is the last game for the Russians for several weeks, so they could "leave it all out there". Now let's face reality: CSKA have lost five of six and drew the other. The form is woeful - losing to Amkar Perm 2-0 last Thursday was the latest in a string of successive failures in the last full month. PSV, meanwhile, haven't lost since Matchday 3 at Wolfsburg and are now 7-0-2 in the last nine. An easy lay here, based on form alone.

The play: PSV -138 big 3u

Astana has been done with domestic play for a month, but traveled to Turkey 10 days ago to prep for this match. I laud their aims but if Galatasaray show up, they should get the UEFA Cup spot. That said, I'm not betting on that. Pass.

Atletico Madrid seems the choice to win in Portugal in a home reversal spot but I won't take less than +120; just because they need to win to win the group doesn't mean it will happen. The form guide shows lots of recent "W"'s for both sides, which means they have to score at least a goal. Benfica has won four straight in Liga play without conceding, while Atletico hasn't lost since the Matchday 2 reverse against today's foe. They've been unbeaten in 12 since, with six wins, while allowing just four goals since then.

The play: Atletico/Benfica UNDER 2 +110 med 2u

Andre Schubert continues to work wonders with Monchengladbach and this line in Manchester is a joke. The Germans are unbeaten in league play with this coach, having blasted Munchen 3-1 over the weekend. Meanwhile, City lost 2-0 in Stoke, conceding twice in the first quarter of an hour. Man City still without Demichelis, Fernando, Kompany, Nasri, Zabaleta and Aguero (doubtful) - Yaya Toure might sit also. Pellegrini seemed resigned to second in the group behind Juve at the Monday press conference. Whether that's true or not is tough to tell, but I'll buy it.

The play: Monchengladbach +1 even big 3 and +480 for 1 unit more

Juve need only a point in Seville and should try to enforce their will on the current UEFA Cup holders, who need to win to qualify again and hope for City to get a result at home. Juve is unbeaten in group stage play though, so that'll be easier said than done. In the end, it reeks of 0-0 or 1-1 to me.

The play: Juve/Sevilla DRAW +235 small to med 1.5u

GL!

:shake:
 
Brutal day and i have struggled with that fuckin group all season (see Matchday 5, when I didn't even bet any of those fuckin matches). 1-5 and -8.65 so now 63-63-5 and +3.31 on the season.

So for Barca today, no Alves, Douglas, Iniesta, Mathieu, Neymar, Pique, Rafinha or Sergi Roberto. Guess what? I don't care. Leverkusen have lost three of their last five Bundesliga games and have but one win in their last six games, while Barca had won seven straight before settling for a draw in Valencia over the weekend. The only Leverkusen clean sheet in the last 10 came against a fourth-league side in the German Cup. Hernandez is in fine form for the hosts, having scored 11 goals in his last 10 games and could certainly chime in today. Score it 3-1 Barca.

The plays: Barcelona +133 med 2u
Barcelona OVER 3 -125 med 2u

I fancy the chances for BATE to compete today. They've been in this spot before and the stage won't be too big. We saw Astana have some success yesterday when travelling a week or more before the game. BATE has been in Rome for over a week and should be well acclimated. The Belarusian season has been over for a month and this is the last game of the season for them; the line is too high in a spot where Roma has to think win.

The play: BATE +1.5 +105 med 2u

No clue in Zagreb. Crap shoot, lean OVER with no Neuer and them off a loss could be redassed.

The only rational reasoning I can see behind Arsenal being this sort of ridiculous favorite is that they've been to the last 16 an impressive 13 straight times. They need a win of other than 1-0 or 2-1 to go through at Olympiakos's expense today, but it's a tough ask. The Gunners are still missing Arteta, Cazorla, Coquelin, Rosicky, Sanchez, Welbeck and Wilshire. Will be a raucous atmosphere in Piraeus, as the tickets for this one sold out in just three hours.

The play: Olympiakos +1/2 -120 med 2u

Would only have the dog in Ukraine; Dynamo Kiev is playing this one and I think the next UEFA CL home match behind closed doors because their fans are gorillas. Atmosphere will be next to nil, and pressure is all on the hosts, who need to win to get to the round of 16 for the first time since the 1999-2000 season (interestingly enough, the same goaltender is still playing that was on that team, and the coach now was also featured on that team). Maccabi have had some moments, but the Onthespot are stuck on zero points and figure to lose.

Totally baffled by Chelsea and can't have anything to do with them right now either way. Gun to head i think they'll win today but i'm not interested in this price.

Can't be for sure what you'll get from Valencia, either. They just drew Barca at home over the weekend but now have new coach Gary Neville taking over for the first time (this is his third day in charge) so I'll have to sit that one out and see what happens. Ultimately, the other match in this group will decide who likely goes through.

The Belgian champs come in off wins in Matchday 4 and 5 and now just need to win or draw if Valencia fail to win in order to progress to the last 16 for the first time. Hulk gets the bye for Zenit, and Witsel is suspended. Two big names who won't feature here and that definitely favors the hosts, which will have a great home atmosphere tonight. No Belgian side has made the last 16 since Anderlecht in 2000-01, but that changes tonight.

The play: Gent +132 med 2u

GL!

:cheers:
 
2-3 and -2.16 on the last of matchday 6 stuff, now 65-66-5 and +1.15 on the season.

Not too much is appealing today. I'll take a stab on a couple of DRAWS.

Southampton has beaten Crystal Palace in seven straight league games in the Championship and Premier League, so this trip to Selhurst Park is one they've enjoyed (3-1 win there last year, costing Neil Warnock his job). The Alan Pardew-led Palace side mauled Newcastle 5-1 in their last home game Nov. 28 and sits seventh in the table, ahead of a Soton side that has been slipping over the last month and wasting chance after chance against woeful Villa last week before coming from behind to salvage a point. Look for another one today in what could turn into a wide-open game.

Also, West Ham has had a decent run of draws recently, having not won since Oct. 24 and drawing three of the last five. They host Stoke today, a side full of confidence after their thorough beating of Man City last weekend. The Hammers are probably the slightly worse-form side at this point but at home, should claw out another point. This fixture was 1-1 last season at Upton Park and can see the same result here.

Soton/Palace DRAW +230 for 2u
Stoke/Hammers DRAW +230 for 2u
 
1-1 and +2.6 last weekend. I actually did have Leicester outright Monday for 3u but wasn't around to post it. No worries, I'm sure I missed a loser here and there somewhere or a live or 2H play.

So posted 66-67-5 and +3.75.

Lelcester again catching a crazy price today at Goodison. Yes, they'll be missing the suspended Huth, and Drinkwater and Schlupp are out with hammies, but these guys are playing at a higher level. Top scorers in the league go at it, with Jamie Vardy and Romelu Lukaku almost a cinch for one of them to find the back of the net. Leicester played Everton to a 2-2 draw in this fixture last term; hard to think they won't be up to that task again.

Leicester +1/2 -127 for 1u
Leicester/Everton DRAW +274 for 1u

Looking for goals galore today at St. Mary's. Tottenham lead the league in set piece goals with 10, while Soton has scored 8 themselves. The ref (Friend) is giving up 3.88 cards per game, so it seems a cinch for chances. Graziano Pelle had an injection to his injured knee and will feature for the Saints, as will Clasie.

Spurs/Soton OVER 2.5 even for 2.5u

Stoke and Palace are two of the more physically rugged sides in the EPL and will look to impose their will on the other from the get-go. Stoke thrashed Man City at the Britannia in their last outing here and have kept clean sheets in seven of their last nine league games to climb the table a bit, while Crystal Palace have conceded only six away from home all season.

CP/Stoke UNDER 2.25 -112 for 2u

GL!
 
1-3 and -4.74 last day of EPL fixtures. Bleh. Now 67-70-5 and -0.99 on the season. Can't get traction.

Subtlely entertaining match at the Vitality today, where fifth-place Crystal Palace visits an in-form Bournemouth that hasn't lost any of its last five. A small take is in order here; the dynamic duo of duo of Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha should cause the Cherries some issues. The hosts have only kept two clean sheets all season. Look for a 1-1 or 2-2 type game. Worth a look on the dog.

THe play: Crystal Palace +0.25 even small to med 1.5u

West Ham no wins since Oct. 24, Villa no wins since opening day, no thanks. Dog or nothing.

Guus Hiddink takes over at Stamford Bridge, at least on an interim basis. Watford have won four straight to vault into seventh in the table, showing off qualities that the champions have not for most of the season. If Chelsea’s centre remains soft, then the Watford midfielders and the attacking pair of in-form Ighalo and Deeney are more than prepared to romp on through.

THe play: Watford +1 +114 med 2u

One week after claiming victory at Everton to top the league at Christmas (1000/1 preseason odds), Claudio Ranieri’s team return to Merseyside looking to for another win against a Liverpool side struggling for form and fit central defenders. Klopp’s men have collected only one point in the last three games and now lose Martin Skrtel to a hammy. Not idea, with Vardy and Mahrez looking to continue their searing goal-scoring paces, respectively. Lovren just returned to training on Wednesday; it will be him and Mamadou Sakho at the heart of defence. Yikes!


Liverpool got mauled 3-0 at Watford last out, and Leicester City’s attack will be licking its chops seeing how Sakho and Skrtel were roughed up by Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo. Liverpool is the only side with a negative goal difference in the top half of the league; this line is a joke.

The play: Leicester +1/2 -110 for 3.5u

Must-win for Swansea, but how can you lay anything with a team that can't score?

No clue at White Hart Lane.

Will check the lineups before later play, GL and Happy Boxing Day

:shake:
 
Everton through a disappointing stretch with three draws and a loss, probably throwing away four points in two of those draws at Goodison. Today they meet an in-form Newcastle at St. James Park; the hosts with two wins and a draw from their last three. Still, Everton steps down in class today and the hosts step up. The price is more than fair for the Blues.

The play: Everton +120 med 2u
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Everton through a disappointing stretch with three draws and a loss, probably throwing away four points in two of those draws at Goodison. Today they meet an in-form Newcastle at St. James Park; the hosts with two wins and a draw from their last three. Still, Everton steps down in class today and the hosts step up. The price is more than fair for the Blues.

The play: Everton +120 med 2u
Click to expand...

Really don't trust both sides A bit to wild for me to call

I will play (Both Teams to score - G/G) & ( Everton - DoubleChance X2)
 
3-1 and +1.58 on Boxing Day. Now 70-71-5 and +0.59 on the season.

Kicking myself for not at least taking a half with the Hammers against Liverpool. But they thrashed the Reds at Anfield 3-0 to open the season, and the home reversal was a genuine concern going in so I passed.

Can't see any chance of Newcastle stealing a point at the Emirates but it's up to Arsenal to name their margin, having lost just once in 20 meetings in this fixture in the last 10 years.

Leicester sit tied atop the table, Bournemouth sit 16th. Sure, the guests had won three straight before a draw and a loss in the last two (same form for Leicester in the last five albeit, three wins, a loss and a draw for the hosts) but they still only have five wins on the campaign. First game was a 1-1 draw, and now at King Power all Leicester has to do is win and I get plus money for that? As long as Mahrez and Vardy continue to go on their romps on the counter, seems easy enough.

The play: Leicester City +102 med 2u

Eight matches without a win for Man United and they want them to lay a goal? I'm not sure I would even want to play at home right now if I were Louie van Gaal; you can be sure the locals will have little patience today if things start to go pear-shaped against Swansea, which have put together one of their better spells of the season and did beat ManU 2-1 back in August and beat van Gaal at Old Trafford 2-1 in his first match last season. Still, hard to trust the Welsh side considering there is still no full-time coach and have only beaten Aston Villa away from home. But the Swans haven't conceded for three matches (leading to five points) and ManU leads the league in fewest goals conceded and Swansea is 19th in goals scored. How are they gonna get to 3?

The play: Swansea/ManU UNDER 2.5 -140 med to big 2.6u

Not sure how Soton can be the favorite at Carrow Road when looking at the current form and who will be in today. A win here for Norwich would put them just one point behind Soton and perhaps Mbokani woke up with his goal earlier in the week against Villa. Norwich has won two of three; Soton just one of its last eight, with six losses thrown in. The guests still are missing leading goal scorer Pelle to a knee knock for another week or so.

The play: Norwich City PICK +123 small to med 1.4u


Two teams comfortably in the relegation zone both need three points today at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland's current dreadful form (five straight losses) has them perched in 19th, one spot ahead of today's visitors, Aston Villa. And the guests will be missing Ayew to suspension. Sunderland missing some guys at the back, though they lead the league in goals conceded, with Villa tied second in that humbling statistic. When two bad teams play, you often get fireworks, especially in a case like this one where the three points will likely loom large at the end of the season for relegation purposes. A 2-2 draw would work just fine for me, though, just like they played at Villa Park back in August.

The play: Villa/Sunderland OVER 2.25 +103 for 1.7 units.

Lean West Brom, as their coach Tony Pulis has never been on the losing end in this fixture; he previously had success when coaching Stoke against West Brom. These two mid-table clubs will both be searching for the points, but Stoke have actually been a more exciting team to watch with Mark Hughes in charge - and they lost at home (2-0) back in August, so they have the home reversal angle. Line looks about right, pass.

Many of these EPL lines are set based on myths and perceptions, rather than realities. The reality is that Manchester City hasn't won away from home since Sept. 12. The reality is that Watford is in decent form, having taken four points from Chelsea and Liverpool in the last two weeks and winners of four of their last six. Vincent Kompany is a key component to the City defense and he's out at least three more weeks with a calf. Ighalo has scored seven times in his last six matches and should find the back of the net again today at least once. I like Watford outright at rowdy Vicarage Road, but will settle for a draw with the prices they're giving away.

The play: Watford +0.75 +104 medium ish 2.3u

GL!

:shake:
 
2-3 and -3.64 on the last matchday of the EPL.

72-74-5 and -3.05 on the season.

Palace sit seventh, while Villa is already almost a cinch to get relegated, winless at home this season. Palace are unbeaten in five straight away from home and have won 14 of 21 away games under Pardew in all competitions. They've given up just seven away goals in EPL action this season and have gone a year without allowing more than one goal on the road. Villa might get one, but CP is good for two if that happens. We'll see.

The play: Crystal Palace +144 med 2u

Bournemouth have lost just once in their last eight EPL fixtures to climb out of the relegation zone. They'll have to play well again to compete with West Ham at the Vitality, as the Hammers have gone unbeaten in their last eight and are eyeing a Champions League spot. The Cherries have been solid as of late, allowing just 2 goals in the last three games despite being near the bottom of the table in goals conceded on the season. The South Coast side have picked up Juan Iturbe on loan from Roma and signed Benik Afobe from Wolverhampton this month in a permanent deal. It will be interesting to see how those two coalesce with their new teammates.

That said, the Hammers have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool. Man City and Crystal Palace all away from home and have just four losses on the season in 20 fixtures, and have played to four straight road draws. An easy take here at this price.

The play: West Ham +1/2 -112 med 2u

A lean to Newcastle today at St James Park at the current price but the UNDER is the more appealing option. The first meeting at Old Trafford was a 0-0 draw, and ManU has not allowed a goal in any of their last three trips here. Newcastle has scored just 19 times in 20 fixtures, ahead of only cellar-dwellar Aston Villa. Newcastle has lost four straight games by a 1-0 tally, and that result would not surprise today, either.

THe play: UNDER 2.5 -135 small to med 1.5u

GL!
 
73-76-5 and -5.07 on the season after a 1-2 tuesday. Who could handicap six goals at St. James Park or Villa winning for the first time since Moby Dick was a fish?


Liverpool host Arsenal and Man U this week at Anfield; the Reds are walking wounded at this point and will be playing their fifth match in two weeks tonight. They've only lost once in their last 12 at home, however. The Gunners are also banged up but have found a way to fight through and currently lead the league. They've won seven of eight but the away form has been woeful. Arsenal have only beaten last-placed Villa on the road in EPL play since October and were mauled 4-0 at out-of-form Southampton last out on the road. Tough one to figure out but with the line so close to pick, why not try a draw?

The play: Big Arse/Liverpool DRAW +235 for 1.4u

Everton just beat City; now they want to spot them a goal? As long as Lukaku is playing, the line can't be this high.

The play: Everton +1 +115 for 1.5u

Leicester just drew Tottenham at this venue a few days ago but this is undoubtedly the more important fixture, with Champions League places in the balance for both sides at this point. Line is too high.

The play: Leicester City +1/2 +117 for 2.4u

Slight leans to Sunderland +1/2, Watford +1/2 and Stoke but decided to sit out all three. Prices just not quite where I was wanting.

GL!
 
Nice sweep Rexy, seeing it clearly today with 2/3 of the leans as well eh :cheers3:
 
yeah i'm really in pretty sick form all around right now, niffel, cfb and even the ckb which i'm not posting is good, am 8-3 this week so far and 5 more tonight, but won't post so as not to mush myself.

see y'all back in here for the weekend EPL fixtures...

:shake:
 
soccer i leaned Norwich but wanted +1/2 +110 so passed, Everton I wanted +1 flat never popped i was prolly too greedy there as Howard seems to be in form and I can't see Chelsea even winning, Palace +1.5 flat, Hammers +1/2 flat and had zero opinion Soton
 
Stoke +0.25 -112 for 2u med.

Arsenal ain't beat them at the Brittania since 2010 and this is the best Stoke team since then, expect no worse than a draw today and a Stoke outright win is the expected result.
 
Have won the last four since Jan. 13 and ready for the Premiership to start back today with a solid eight-game card. That run was 4-0 and +9.84 units, putting me at 77-76-5 and +4.77 on the season.

All 20 teams have played in 23 fixtures. An interesting one today in London, as Southampton invades the Emirates. Soton thrashed the Big Arse 4-0 in the reverse fixture back at St. Mary's on Boxing Day and enter on a three game winning streak after getting bounced out of the FA Cup by Crystal Palace on Jan. 9. The Saints have not conceded in any of those wins, over Watford, West Brom and at Man U. Meanwhile, Arsenal have slid to third in the table as they have not win in any of their last three EPL matches. Included in this cold spell for the Gunners was a home defeat to Chelsea last time out. Maybe the Big Arse will get its revenge today, but I'm banking against it.

The play: Soton +1/2 +114 for 2u

Leicester has been my cash cow, and the Foxes head into February three points clear of Man City and Arsenal. Next up is a visit from seventh-placed Liverpool. Somehow, the Foxes are barely favored. It's laughable. They did sport an inconsistent form for much of a rugged January but a 3-0 thrashing of Stoke last out at King Power Stadium should show the locals at full throat again tonight. After tonight, the Foxes meet the two teams immediately below them in the table, making the three points tonight against Jurgen Klopp's Reds vital. Klopp was one of the few managers to get the best of Claudio Ranieri on Boxing Day in the 1-0 win at Anfield. It will be interesting to see if Klopp decides to go 4-4-2 tonight to match what Leicester did in the first game. Expect Ranieri to be better prepared tonight. Daniel Sturridge is not fit so it's tough to see where the goals will come from for the Reds; there's simply nothing up front. Jamie Vardy scored against Stoke and could get hot again, and the last 11 teams that have led at the start of February have won the league title. Leicester have lost just 3 of their last 32. The PICK bet is the safe play, but I'll snag some 3-way also. Someone is actually trying to bet Liverpool and make them the favorite, which is comical to me.

The play: Leicester pick +102 for 2 units and plus 182 for 1 unit.

Hard to figure out what you'll get today from Norwich against Tottenham, but I am eager to see it. The Canaries have yielded 3, 3 and 5 goals in their last three league games and have lost four straight, while Spurs have won four straight to vault to fourth in the league. NCFC brought in Naismith, Klose, Pinto, Bamford and Maddison during the January transfer window and will continue to look like a much different team than from earlier in the campaign. I'm not sure they can escape with any points today at Carrow Road. A closer look at the last two Spurs fixtures in EPL play show five and four goals scored, while there have been at least three goals scored in the last four EPL fixtures. Spurs have a dearth of center backs as Vertonghen is out a couple of months. I see both sides lighting the lamp and there is certainly reason to believe Tottenham should at least twice.

The play: Tottenham/Norwich OVER 2.5 -115 for 2u

Sunderland host Manchester City today in a match that could be sneaky good at the Stadium of Light. While the Black Cats are in 19th at this point and four points from safety, Sam Allardyce has coaxed two wins and a draw from his club in its last four EPL outings. On paper, it seems a virtually impossible task to try and slow in-form Sergio Aguero, who can't stop scoring at the moment. But all of the talk around City has been the signing of Pep Guardiola, and it's hard to tell how that will impact the current chemistry between lame-duck coach Manuel Pellegrini and his players. There are a bunch of City injuries across all lines to deal with as well, so I'll pass here but I think the line is a smidge too high, around -180 or so it should be on the 3-way. Lean Sunderland.

Hard to make any sort of case for Aston Villa, which failed to land any of its transfer targets for Frenchman Remi Garde. With Dimitri Payet fit again, the Hammers should relish a visit to Upton Park from the last-place side as they try to keep climbing the table. Villa is unbeaten in three Premiership matches and did draw West Ham 1-1 at Villa Park on Boxing Day. That was a relative avalanche of goals in this series, as just five goals total have been scored in the last five EPL meetings between these two. Villa ranks last in the league in goals scored; hard to find anything coming from them tonight. Hammers 2-0 still gets the cheese, but 1-0 seems more likely.

The play: Villa/West Ham UNDER 2.5 -137 for 1.5u

Lean to Crystal Palace today as they entertain Bournemouth to Selhurst Park. Emmanuel Adebayor seems to be a favorite to score if history is correlated to future results. He's scored in his debuts for Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham. Only one of the 24 goals that Palace has scored in league play have come from a forward. But injuries to Cabaye and Ledley have weakened the midfield. The Cherries welcome back captain Tommy Elphick for his first league action since his ankle surgery in early September. Big game in the middle of the table, no strong interest.

Stoke sit ninth, four points behind Manchester City as they visit Old Trafford. ManU has won just two games in the EPL in the last two months and were trounced 2-0 at Stoke on Boxing Day. But I can't be interested in playing Stoke, even if it climbs as high as +1 flat. The Potters lost at Leicester last out in league play, and were knocked out of the Capital One Cup in the semis by Liverpool in a match that went to penalties, and then lost to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup on Saturday. Wilson suffered a knee injury, and captain Shawcross, Adam and Cameron are all also out. If ever there were a time for United to gain ground in the table, this would seemingly be it.

Swansea and West Brom are mirror images of each other at this point, sitting three points apart in the table and nearly identical in goal differentials (22-30, 22-31). Swans only played five times in January; WBA played seven times, so they're not quite as fresh and that can mitigate the home field edge a bit, making the two sides relatively even. The only concerning stat is that in nine EPL matches between the two sides, none has ever ended in a draw. I'm banking on that ending tonight at the Hawthorns, with one of the lower DRAW payouts you'll see me ever bet.

The play: Swansea/West Brom DRAW +210 for 1.5u

GL to us, back tomorrow!

:shake:
 
Excellent late draw by West Brom to seal a 5-0 day and a 12.79 unit win. Now 82-76-5 and +17.56 on the season.

Kudos to Newcastle for doing everything it can to try and stay up. No team in the league spent more money than the Magpies during the January transfer window; they're sitting in 18th and two behind Norwich from safety at this point. The addition of Doumbia on loan and signings of Townsend from Tottenham and Shelvey from Swansea were notable; the two signings are both English internationals who show that the side is no longer content to just recruit French talent. It's difficult to see what their impact will be out of the gate but they're not in a bad spot. Everton has been woeful this season at Goodison Park, losing their last league game there to 16th-placed Swansea on Jan. 24. The Toffees have kept just one clean sheet at home, a league low, and only Villa have fewer points (8) than the nine that Everton has tallied in the last 10 EPL fixtures. It's a reason why the Mercyside side sits in the bottom half of the table now, with just six wins and a league-high 11 draws. Why not make it an even dozen?

The play: Everton/Newcastle DRAW +315 for 1 unit

Chelsea are unbeaten in nine matches across all competitions since Guus Hiddink took the reigns from Jose Mourinho. The first of those was a 2-2 draw against Watford on Boxing Day; the two sides meet again today at Vicarage Road. Watford sit 10th in the table, but a win today would vault the hosts into seventh. That comes on the heels of four straight league losses before a 2-1 win over Newcastle in the last EPL game to stop the bleeding. The Hornets have 32 points through 23 games, which is the best of any promoted side at this stage since 2009-10, and Chelsea has just 28 points through 23 fixtures - it took just 11 games to get to 28 points last season. So the results of the last nine matches (seven wins for the Blues and two draws) between the sides is largely irrelevant. Watford have kept a clean sheet in six of their 12 home matches and the two Chelsea goals at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture came on their only two shots on goal. Look for Odion Ighalo to find the back of the net again for the hosts, with seven goals in his last seven matches at Vicarage Road.

The play: Watford +1/2 +101 for 1.5u

GL!


 
1-1 and win a peanut last out. 83-77-5 and up 18.06 on the season.

Leicester +1? You shittin me? The league leaders have lost twice all season in league play in 24 games, with just one loss by more than a goal. While this is a stern test, there's no way that Man City can lay this price, even at the Etihad. Leicester is unbeaten in six EPL fixtures since a Boxing Day loss to Liverpool, which it avenged in a big way earlier this week. While the league leaders were a bit vulnerable on defense earlier in the season, LCFC has allowed just one goal in those last six games, which has helped the underdogs to the top of the table. City is battling in four different competitions from here on out, but you're for sure going to get their best effort and best lineup in this one. Still, when that lineup doesn't include Vinny Kompany, there is a vulnerability at the back that Mahrez, Okazaki and Vardy can exploit. A key is Drinkwater and Kante holding their own in the midfield against Fernandinho, Toure and Delph. But the LCFC defense should stymie Silva, Sterling and Aguero, frustrating them throughout. No Nasri, De Bruyne or Navas for City, either, all out to injuries...

The play: Leicester +1 -110 for 3.5u

Back with the other shit in a few hours...

:shake:
 
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