Rexy's 2015-16 EPL and UEFA plays...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Iceland +1 +114 for 2u. Price too high, as I can see them pipping them on the counter as the bus will be parked throughout.
Look for a 1-1 final.
Look for a 1-1 final.
Hollywood Beaker
Stalking the umps
Nice hit on Iceland. Quite unexpected.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
despite falling in love with the story, i really like ISL to give FRA all it wants as the Frogs have not been very good in the tournament and I see I'm getting a goal. Any feel on how the line closes? Would obviously love 1.5, but not sure it can possibly jump that high so I'd likely stick with a plus-money +1
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
If you can find 1.25 flat or close to it, I'd go in on the Icelanders at that level. But tough for me to get a read on these markets and I am wrong as much as I am right about them in this event. Too much liquidity.
Poland has only yielded once in the first four games. I've said from the get-go that I was unimpressed with the Portuguese and the only reason they beat the Croats is because the coach is an asshat. Each team had to go 120 minutes to get to this stage. Shaquiri's scissor-kick goal between the center back duo of Pazdan and Glik has been the lone concession by the Polocks to this point. Can they keep CR7 from lighting the lamp? Calling for dog to pip Portugal on the counter and win this one in regulation, though betting the game a tad differently since been going bad (2-5-1 and -4.47 since last record keeping; 128-119-11 and +35.45 on season).
The plays: Portugal to advance PICK +160 (offscreen out, 1u play limit there)
Poland +0.25 -104 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
Poland has only yielded once in the first four games. I've said from the get-go that I was unimpressed with the Portuguese and the only reason they beat the Croats is because the coach is an asshat. Each team had to go 120 minutes to get to this stage. Shaquiri's scissor-kick goal between the center back duo of Pazdan and Glik has been the lone concession by the Polocks to this point. Can they keep CR7 from lighting the lamp? Calling for dog to pip Portugal on the counter and win this one in regulation, though betting the game a tad differently since been going bad (2-5-1 and -4.47 since last record keeping; 128-119-11 and +35.45 on season).
The plays: Portugal to advance PICK +160 (offscreen out, 1u play limit there)
Poland +0.25 -104 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Some streaks are meant to be broken. I believe that to be the case with today's Euro quarter, but until it happens, it won't get my money.
Germany have never beaten Italy in eight meetings in tournament soccer, and while today represents their best chance to do so, it's far from a given. The Greasies have outclassed both Belgium and Spain to advance to the quarters and have not batted an eye thus far despite having to play their toughest foes. They did also rest most of the starting XI against Ireland and will come in fairly fresh here. The expectations were not high for this event but Antonio Conte is showing the rest of the Premier League just how tough Chelsea is going to be in 2016-17 as he has pushed all of the right buttons to this point. The Italians are not playing proactive, but haven't needed to, and have been dangerous when attackng on the counter with numbers. Thiago Motta is out with yellow card suspensions and DeRossi and Candreva are both hurt, with neither in the 3-5-2 for Conte.
Germany has been tinkering with lineups throughout but have still yet to concede in this event, though today's test represents by far their biggest of the event. Boateng and Kroos have controlled the center of the park better than any duo in the event. The Spanish went directly after Italy after halftime after being outcoached in the first half a week ago. Now the Germans goes 3-4-2-1. The Italians went right after Spain from the get-go.
I see both sides scoring here, and gun to head, I'll call for 2-1 Germany, but 2-2 would be my next likely outcome in 90 minutes. I can also see either side winning in extra time or penals. Should be a great treat.
The play OVER 2 -110 for 2.7 units
GL!
Germany have never beaten Italy in eight meetings in tournament soccer, and while today represents their best chance to do so, it's far from a given. The Greasies have outclassed both Belgium and Spain to advance to the quarters and have not batted an eye thus far despite having to play their toughest foes. They did also rest most of the starting XI against Ireland and will come in fairly fresh here. The expectations were not high for this event but Antonio Conte is showing the rest of the Premier League just how tough Chelsea is going to be in 2016-17 as he has pushed all of the right buttons to this point. The Italians are not playing proactive, but haven't needed to, and have been dangerous when attackng on the counter with numbers. Thiago Motta is out with yellow card suspensions and DeRossi and Candreva are both hurt, with neither in the 3-5-2 for Conte.
Germany has been tinkering with lineups throughout but have still yet to concede in this event, though today's test represents by far their biggest of the event. Boateng and Kroos have controlled the center of the park better than any duo in the event. The Spanish went directly after Italy after halftime after being outcoached in the first half a week ago. Now the Germans goes 3-4-2-1. The Italians went right after Spain from the get-go.
I see both sides scoring here, and gun to head, I'll call for 2-1 Germany, but 2-2 would be my next likely outcome in 90 minutes. I can also see either side winning in extra time or penals. Should be a great treat.
The play OVER 2 -110 for 2.7 units
GL!
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
The expanded European Championships were generally thought of as nothing more than a money-grab by UEFA to add an additional 20 games to a tournament that expanded from 16 to 24 teams.
There’s always going to be a feel-good story in these big events, and often times more than one. While Wales advancing to the semifinals in their first-ever appearance at the event has been exciting, nothing has matched what Iceland has pulled off to this point.
The tiny island nation with a population that is less than that of Bakersfield, Calif., dumped one of Europe’s most esteemed footballing countries out of the tournament with a rousing effort, beating England 2-1 in the round of 16. Iceland will next face host France in today's last quarterfinal.
The winner will get Germany in the second semifinal, with Portugal to meet Wales in the other semi.
And while there were certainly intriguing storylines and subplots for the first three matches, the Icelanders are literally taking over France. Between 8 and 10 percent of the population of the whole island have attended at least one of their four games to this point – that would be like 31 million Americans attending a sporting event if taken in proper context.
But there has been no accident to how Iceland has gotten to this point.
The golden age of soccer in Iceland is here, and it’s happening for a powerful set of very different reasons. The turn of the century brought purpose built indoor domes across the island for the sole ability to train year-round, despite how hideous the weather might be outside. This has allowed all athletes of varying ages, genders and sizes to have the ability to train in top-class facilities with a UEFA A or B licensed coach – one in every 500 habitats of the island can make that claim.
Because there is no full time Icelandic league to play in, the very best players go overseas once they become adults and learn new systems and how to survive once leaving the island. The very same connection that the Icelanders have with their fans is something that has not gone unnoticed by supporters of England, who sense a disconnect with the highly-paid players like at no other time in history with their talented but flawed side.
England had the most impressive qualifying campaign of any side but seemed unsure of itself throughout the event, and coach Roy Hodgson was second-guessed countlessly throughout the four matches – he resigned his post almost immediately after the Iceland shocker. The English were favored by more than a goal in the closing betting markets.
Still, more credit should be given to the winners than humiliation felt by the losers. After conceding an early penalty and falling behind, Iceland answered immediately as a sixth-minute goal by Ragnar Sigurosson tied things at 1. It came directly from a throw in, which was crossed right in front of goalie Joe Hart and rammed home by Sigurosson. Iceland has shown more than any team in recent international history to put a premium value on any plays coming from a dead ball, whether they be throw-ins, free kicks or corner kicks. There is almost always some sort of intent to try and make something positive out of a throw-in, rather than just getting the ball back into play. Co-head coaches Heimir Hallgrimsson and Lars Lagerback deserve a lot of credit for the cohesion shown on the pitch for the Icelanders.
Draws against Portugal and Hungary came before wins against Austria and England, but Iceland also won at Holland home and away during qualifying in helping keep the Dutch out of this event altogether. They won’t be intimidated.
Many consider the French the favorite, and now more so with England bowing out this early, but Sunday’s match should prove to be just as fascinating as any of the other three quarterfinals. It's an easy take at this level.
The play: Iceland +1.25 -115 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
There’s always going to be a feel-good story in these big events, and often times more than one. While Wales advancing to the semifinals in their first-ever appearance at the event has been exciting, nothing has matched what Iceland has pulled off to this point.
The tiny island nation with a population that is less than that of Bakersfield, Calif., dumped one of Europe’s most esteemed footballing countries out of the tournament with a rousing effort, beating England 2-1 in the round of 16. Iceland will next face host France in today's last quarterfinal.
The winner will get Germany in the second semifinal, with Portugal to meet Wales in the other semi.
And while there were certainly intriguing storylines and subplots for the first three matches, the Icelanders are literally taking over France. Between 8 and 10 percent of the population of the whole island have attended at least one of their four games to this point – that would be like 31 million Americans attending a sporting event if taken in proper context.
But there has been no accident to how Iceland has gotten to this point.
The golden age of soccer in Iceland is here, and it’s happening for a powerful set of very different reasons. The turn of the century brought purpose built indoor domes across the island for the sole ability to train year-round, despite how hideous the weather might be outside. This has allowed all athletes of varying ages, genders and sizes to have the ability to train in top-class facilities with a UEFA A or B licensed coach – one in every 500 habitats of the island can make that claim.
Because there is no full time Icelandic league to play in, the very best players go overseas once they become adults and learn new systems and how to survive once leaving the island. The very same connection that the Icelanders have with their fans is something that has not gone unnoticed by supporters of England, who sense a disconnect with the highly-paid players like at no other time in history with their talented but flawed side.
England had the most impressive qualifying campaign of any side but seemed unsure of itself throughout the event, and coach Roy Hodgson was second-guessed countlessly throughout the four matches – he resigned his post almost immediately after the Iceland shocker. The English were favored by more than a goal in the closing betting markets.
Still, more credit should be given to the winners than humiliation felt by the losers. After conceding an early penalty and falling behind, Iceland answered immediately as a sixth-minute goal by Ragnar Sigurosson tied things at 1. It came directly from a throw in, which was crossed right in front of goalie Joe Hart and rammed home by Sigurosson. Iceland has shown more than any team in recent international history to put a premium value on any plays coming from a dead ball, whether they be throw-ins, free kicks or corner kicks. There is almost always some sort of intent to try and make something positive out of a throw-in, rather than just getting the ball back into play. Co-head coaches Heimir Hallgrimsson and Lars Lagerback deserve a lot of credit for the cohesion shown on the pitch for the Icelanders.
Draws against Portugal and Hungary came before wins against Austria and England, but Iceland also won at Holland home and away during qualifying in helping keep the Dutch out of this event altogether. They won’t be intimidated.
Many consider the French the favorite, and now more so with England bowing out this early, but Sunday’s match should prove to be just as fascinating as any of the other three quarterfinals. It's an easy take at this level.
The play: Iceland +1.25 -115 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
gunner4ever
Pretty much a regular
Good write-up, I'm with you and Iceland again! :shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Iceland took the L but the Frogs got their act together. The early goal made it tough and once it got to 2-0 the pressure was off.
I am on both dogs in the semifinal matches. Germany for the simple sake that regardless of venue and opponent, they cannot be an underdog to any team in the world. Principalities in play here.
Today, I am on Wales. I am still anti-Portugal, and why shouldn't I be? They have yet to win a match in 90 minutes in this event and have basically luckboxed their way to this point. But the fun stops here.
The price is borderline ridiculous, but with Wales missing a few key men (Ramsey, Davies) to suspension, the Welsh have basically continued to receive little to no respect from the oddsmakers. The fans have been great, coach Chris Coleman has proven as adept as anyone at this event and his side's modified 5-3-2 has been fine-tuned all through qualifying. Wingbacks Chris Gunter and Neil Taylor has provided defensive cover when required but also width in attack. Bale has been great about mixing it up between midfield and attacking, giving the Welsh a nice tactical blend. He's all about country first, a true superstar that is the polar opposite of his club teammate and foe today, Christiano Ronaldo, who is me/me/me...
I expect to see Jonny Williams in for Ramsey, which would make the Welsh a bit more attack-minded as opposed to someone more defensive-minded (see Croatia/Portugal for how badly that worked out)
The plays: Germany PICK +113 for 2.5u on the handicap
Wales outright +348 for 2.3u
GL!
I am on both dogs in the semifinal matches. Germany for the simple sake that regardless of venue and opponent, they cannot be an underdog to any team in the world. Principalities in play here.
Today, I am on Wales. I am still anti-Portugal, and why shouldn't I be? They have yet to win a match in 90 minutes in this event and have basically luckboxed their way to this point. But the fun stops here.
The price is borderline ridiculous, but with Wales missing a few key men (Ramsey, Davies) to suspension, the Welsh have basically continued to receive little to no respect from the oddsmakers. The fans have been great, coach Chris Coleman has proven as adept as anyone at this event and his side's modified 5-3-2 has been fine-tuned all through qualifying. Wingbacks Chris Gunter and Neil Taylor has provided defensive cover when required but also width in attack. Bale has been great about mixing it up between midfield and attacking, giving the Welsh a nice tactical blend. He's all about country first, a true superstar that is the polar opposite of his club teammate and foe today, Christiano Ronaldo, who is me/me/me...
I expect to see Jonny Williams in for Ramsey, which would make the Welsh a bit more attack-minded as opposed to someone more defensive-minded (see Croatia/Portugal for how badly that worked out)
The plays: Germany PICK +113 for 2.5u on the handicap
Wales outright +348 for 2.3u
GL!
gunner4ever
Pretty much a regular
On both same sides again. Also I've been reading that Pepe might be out for Portugal not confirmed but it would be a blow for Portugal because as much as I hate this guy he has been great this tournament.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Pepe is doubtful with a thigh knock. Guessing R. Carvalho goes in his place.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
0-5-1 since last record update and -10.18. Bring the season total to 128-124-12 and +25.34 on season with the Euro final as the last game.
Been woeful all summer and the break comes at a good time. Can dig into Phil the Thrill Steele for a few weeks and forget about everything else.
Been down on Portugal and they rammed it in me all through this round but they run into a far superior host Sunday.
The play: France +108 for 3u. Good luck!
:shake:
Been woeful all summer and the break comes at a good time. Can dig into Phil the Thrill Steele for a few weeks and forget about everything else.
Been down on Portugal and they rammed it in me all through this round but they run into a far superior host Sunday.
The play: France +108 for 3u. Good luck!
:shake:
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