Rexy's 2015-16 EPL and UEFA plays...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2 Bad Teams OVER guy is involved at Villa Park. I won't argue with him.
THe play: Norwich/Villa OVER 2.25 +112 med 2u.
Who is Liverpool to lay a goal to anyone at this point? They could hardly get a shot on goal the other day. The Reds have no goals in three straight competitions. Sturridge might play but he doesn't have match fitness and probably won't go the full 90. The same deal goes for Coutinho, Origi and Skrtel, all of which are back in training but none of which will likely make any sort of meaningful contribution Saturday. Give Allardyce's troops a bunch of credit for the 1-0 loss at City on Tuesday, a game in which they were the right side on the handicap and could have easily gotten a result. The increase of ticket prices at Anfield means there could be a walkout from the Liverpool supporters, negating some of the home-field edge in the last 13 minutes and added time. Sunderland has scored in seven straight away games in EPL play.
The play: Sunderland +1.25 -111 for 2u
OK, I'm done now. Have bets in but too fuckin tired for more writeups. GL to us P2W
:shake:
THe play: Norwich/Villa OVER 2.25 +112 med 2u.
Who is Liverpool to lay a goal to anyone at this point? They could hardly get a shot on goal the other day. The Reds have no goals in three straight competitions. Sturridge might play but he doesn't have match fitness and probably won't go the full 90. The same deal goes for Coutinho, Origi and Skrtel, all of which are back in training but none of which will likely make any sort of meaningful contribution Saturday. Give Allardyce's troops a bunch of credit for the 1-0 loss at City on Tuesday, a game in which they were the right side on the handicap and could have easily gotten a result. The increase of ticket prices at Anfield means there could be a walkout from the Liverpool supporters, negating some of the home-field edge in the last 13 minutes and added time. Sunderland has scored in seven straight away games in EPL play.
The play: Sunderland +1.25 -111 for 2u
OK, I'm done now. Have bets in but too fuckin tired for more writeups. GL to us P2W
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Probably a must-win game for the Tynesiders if they want to avoid relegation, in all likelihood, but Steve McClaren has only three fit senior defenders for today's match against West Brom at St. James Park. Expect some offense.
The play: West Brom/Newcastle OVER 2.5 +125 for 1u
Stoke has one league win in the 2016 calendar year and Everton is sitting 11th in the table despite scoring the fourth-most goals of anyone. Howard out again for the Toffees but it seems a 1-1 scoreline could be in the offing at the Britannia, and with these two close in the table I can see a draw.
The play: Everton/Stoke DRAW +230 for 1.5u
Palace has lost five straight and are the only team in England's top four divisions to not record a point in 2016. Swansea are unbeaten in their last three. Form play at home for the Swans at the Liberty.
The play: Swansea +135 for 1.5u
Watford made five changes to a side that drew at home to Chelsea earlier in the week. The Hornets were running bad until their last two, but now getting a goal and jugo today at White Hart Lane, I'll bite. Tottenham has won five straight, and while they might do so again today, the value is on the dog.
The play: Watford +1 +105 for 1.5u
GL!
:shake:
The play: West Brom/Newcastle OVER 2.5 +125 for 1u
Stoke has one league win in the 2016 calendar year and Everton is sitting 11th in the table despite scoring the fourth-most goals of anyone. Howard out again for the Toffees but it seems a 1-1 scoreline could be in the offing at the Britannia, and with these two close in the table I can see a draw.
The play: Everton/Stoke DRAW +230 for 1.5u
Palace has lost five straight and are the only team in England's top four divisions to not record a point in 2016. Swansea are unbeaten in their last three. Form play at home for the Swans at the Liberty.
The play: Swansea +135 for 1.5u
Watford made five changes to a side that drew at home to Chelsea earlier in the week. The Hornets were running bad until their last two, but now getting a goal and jugo today at White Hart Lane, I'll bite. Tottenham has won five straight, and while they might do so again today, the value is on the dog.
The play: Watford +1 +105 for 1.5u
GL!
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Two top-7 sides collide at St. Mary's in the nightcap of the Saturday action. Soton has claimed 10 points from its last four and is headed in the right direction again. The line certainly reflects that, but let's look at some of the road scalps for the Hammers this season:
2-0 at Arsenal, 3-0 at Liverpool, 2-1 at Man City, 3-1 at Palace and 3-1 at Bournemouth. WHU is 5-3-4 on the road in EPL games this year, and the line is simply too high.
The play: West Ham +0.75 +104 for 2u
2-0 at Arsenal, 3-0 at Liverpool, 2-1 at Man City, 3-1 at Palace and 3-1 at Bournemouth. WHU is 5-3-4 on the road in EPL games this year, and the line is simply too high.
The play: West Ham +0.75 +104 for 2u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Chelsea/ManU DRAW +235 for 1.2u
No time for writeup. Chelsea in better form, the Red Devils have been stingy all season regardless of venue. Just taking a small shot at 0-0 or 1-1. Would lean UN but was only interested at betting at 2.5 un 30 or better, never close to that...
No time for writeup. Chelsea in better form, the Red Devils have been stingy all season regardless of venue. Just taking a small shot at 0-0 or 1-1. Would lean UN but was only interested at betting at 2.5 un 30 or better, never close to that...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Won 3.5 on Feb 6th with Leicester but went 1-5-1 -4 rest of the day before hitting the draw at Stamford Bridge on the 7th so a winner for the weekend, can't ask for anything more than that in the long run.
Score it 3-5-1 and +2.32 for the weekend; now 86-82-5 and +20.38 on the season.
The Saturday games are the appetizers this weekend in England, where two games involving the top four are on Sunday. That said, there's money to be made both days, so let's get after it.
Stoke no league wins since the calendar turned to 2016 and has lost three straight going into Saturday's fixture at the Vitality. But can 15th place Bournemouth really be an even-money favorite to Stoke? Beats me; OVER seems the way here. Bournemouth concedes more than anyone above them in the table and Stoke concedes more than all but two above them.
The play: Stoke OVER 2.5 +113 for 1.4u
It would seem that you have to bet Chelsea games to DRAW until further notice. Guus Hiddink took over in December, and the hosts have played 11 games without losing. Yet the Blues have no league wins in the EPL at home since the Dutchman took over. Newcastle have added some cogs that can help them stay competitive, and Chelsea has a Tuesday date in Paris against PSG in the immediate future; the Frogs had many key players (Zlatan, Thiago Silva, Motta, Maxwell and Lavezzi) who won't even dress tomorrow if my reports there are good. What will Chelsea do in terms of fielding its best XI? Not sure, since Hiddink hasn't coached a Champions League game this term. Pass.
Two mid-table squads go at it at Selhurst Park, with Palace picking up a lone point in the last six after drawing at Swansea last Saturday and Watford having just four points in its last six matches as well. Yannick Bolasie is still out for Palace, so it's up to Odion Idhalo and Troy Deeney to start scoring again for Watford, considering neither have scored in four of the last five matches. Lean Watford at this level but no play for now, with two teams in bad form currently going. I'll do a bit more work and check the lineups for something to pop before 10 am EST.
Interesting battle here at Goodison Park as Everton's games have seen 80 goals scored (most in the league by nine miles) whereas West Brom's games have seen just 55 (fewer than anyone save for Man United's and Watford's 54 in 25 fixtures). Everton's won two straight in league play and the +12 goal differential is actually fifth-best in the league, whereas WBA is at minus-9. West Brom is also without a win in the last five league matches and could be staring a relegation battle if things don't pick up soon. Niasse could make his debut for the Toffees and his pace and power would give the WBA defense all sorts of fits, especially with Gareth McAuley out with a bad hammy.
The play: Everton -190 for 2u
I must be drunj or missing something at Carrow Road. Norwich is favored over West Ham? Norwich is currently in the relegation zone, having lost 5 straight in league play. West Ham sit sixth, just two behind ManU for a spot in the UEFA Cup next season. So I did some more work.
An interesting tidbit/trend play for you live punters: There has been a goal in the 90th minute or thereafter in each of the last four meetings between the Canaries and West Ham. None of the last 13 meetings between the two sides have resulted in an away win, which leaves me climbing uphill here (West Ham is 0-9-7 in their last 16 trips up to Carrow Road).
The first meeting at Upton Park back in September was a 2-2 draw. West Ham will be missing Kouyate, Reid and O'Brien, but Tettey is suspended for Norwich. West Ham just beat Liverpool in the FA Cup midweek and should ride some momentum from that into this one; I honestly thought this line was flipped. The Hammers have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Palace and Bournemouth on the road in EPL games this year; to suggest they can be this sort of dog against Norwich is insulting.
The play: West Ham PICK +120 for 2u
The first match of the weekend should be a good one; Sam Allardyce and Louie van Gaal got into it last season when Allardyce was at West Ham and basically accused the Dutchman of playing for a draw at Upton Park last season. The Stadium of Light should be an electric atmosphere, but Sunderland still sit in the relegation zone and have lost perhaps best player Adam Johnson for having sex with a 15-year old and getting convicted of it. Good times indeed. ManU sit six points back of neighbor ManCity but has only one loss in its last seven league matches.
Injuries abound everywhere; United had two guys from its under-21 side get injured Monday that contribute to the parent club, whereas Allardyce will be missing no less than four starters. ManU is 21-2-6 in the last 29 league games against the Black Cats, which have not beaten the Red Devils at home in the last 13 league matches dating to 1997. But ManU has just six points from its last six away EPL games. Who knows?
Soton is flying up the table, as Fraser Forster has yet to concede in the last five games - the Saints have picked up 13 points in that time. Swansea is now unbeaten in its last four and new manager Francesco Guidolin has piloted three of those wins. This is probably the most interesting match of the day at the Liberty Stadium. Losing Victor Wanyama for five games will certainly hurt the Saints; he'll be out until March 19th to suspension.
The price seems a bit steep and the Welsh side seems the value but I would only consider getting involved at +1/2 -130 ish, which I doubt will pop. Swansea has never scored against Soton at home in three league matches all-time; they've never scored in the first half against the Saints in seven league matches as well. UNDER would be worth a look but at the 2.15 level, it's not worth playing.
GL!
Score it 3-5-1 and +2.32 for the weekend; now 86-82-5 and +20.38 on the season.
The Saturday games are the appetizers this weekend in England, where two games involving the top four are on Sunday. That said, there's money to be made both days, so let's get after it.
Stoke no league wins since the calendar turned to 2016 and has lost three straight going into Saturday's fixture at the Vitality. But can 15th place Bournemouth really be an even-money favorite to Stoke? Beats me; OVER seems the way here. Bournemouth concedes more than anyone above them in the table and Stoke concedes more than all but two above them.
The play: Stoke OVER 2.5 +113 for 1.4u
It would seem that you have to bet Chelsea games to DRAW until further notice. Guus Hiddink took over in December, and the hosts have played 11 games without losing. Yet the Blues have no league wins in the EPL at home since the Dutchman took over. Newcastle have added some cogs that can help them stay competitive, and Chelsea has a Tuesday date in Paris against PSG in the immediate future; the Frogs had many key players (Zlatan, Thiago Silva, Motta, Maxwell and Lavezzi) who won't even dress tomorrow if my reports there are good. What will Chelsea do in terms of fielding its best XI? Not sure, since Hiddink hasn't coached a Champions League game this term. Pass.
Two mid-table squads go at it at Selhurst Park, with Palace picking up a lone point in the last six after drawing at Swansea last Saturday and Watford having just four points in its last six matches as well. Yannick Bolasie is still out for Palace, so it's up to Odion Idhalo and Troy Deeney to start scoring again for Watford, considering neither have scored in four of the last five matches. Lean Watford at this level but no play for now, with two teams in bad form currently going. I'll do a bit more work and check the lineups for something to pop before 10 am EST.
Interesting battle here at Goodison Park as Everton's games have seen 80 goals scored (most in the league by nine miles) whereas West Brom's games have seen just 55 (fewer than anyone save for Man United's and Watford's 54 in 25 fixtures). Everton's won two straight in league play and the +12 goal differential is actually fifth-best in the league, whereas WBA is at minus-9. West Brom is also without a win in the last five league matches and could be staring a relegation battle if things don't pick up soon. Niasse could make his debut for the Toffees and his pace and power would give the WBA defense all sorts of fits, especially with Gareth McAuley out with a bad hammy.
The play: Everton -190 for 2u
I must be drunj or missing something at Carrow Road. Norwich is favored over West Ham? Norwich is currently in the relegation zone, having lost 5 straight in league play. West Ham sit sixth, just two behind ManU for a spot in the UEFA Cup next season. So I did some more work.
An interesting tidbit/trend play for you live punters: There has been a goal in the 90th minute or thereafter in each of the last four meetings between the Canaries and West Ham. None of the last 13 meetings between the two sides have resulted in an away win, which leaves me climbing uphill here (West Ham is 0-9-7 in their last 16 trips up to Carrow Road).
The first meeting at Upton Park back in September was a 2-2 draw. West Ham will be missing Kouyate, Reid and O'Brien, but Tettey is suspended for Norwich. West Ham just beat Liverpool in the FA Cup midweek and should ride some momentum from that into this one; I honestly thought this line was flipped. The Hammers have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Palace and Bournemouth on the road in EPL games this year; to suggest they can be this sort of dog against Norwich is insulting.
The play: West Ham PICK +120 for 2u
The first match of the weekend should be a good one; Sam Allardyce and Louie van Gaal got into it last season when Allardyce was at West Ham and basically accused the Dutchman of playing for a draw at Upton Park last season. The Stadium of Light should be an electric atmosphere, but Sunderland still sit in the relegation zone and have lost perhaps best player Adam Johnson for having sex with a 15-year old and getting convicted of it. Good times indeed. ManU sit six points back of neighbor ManCity but has only one loss in its last seven league matches.
Injuries abound everywhere; United had two guys from its under-21 side get injured Monday that contribute to the parent club, whereas Allardyce will be missing no less than four starters. ManU is 21-2-6 in the last 29 league games against the Black Cats, which have not beaten the Red Devils at home in the last 13 league matches dating to 1997. But ManU has just six points from its last six away EPL games. Who knows?
Soton is flying up the table, as Fraser Forster has yet to concede in the last five games - the Saints have picked up 13 points in that time. Swansea is now unbeaten in its last four and new manager Francesco Guidolin has piloted three of those wins. This is probably the most interesting match of the day at the Liberty Stadium. Losing Victor Wanyama for five games will certainly hurt the Saints; he'll be out until March 19th to suspension.
The price seems a bit steep and the Welsh side seems the value but I would only consider getting involved at +1/2 -130 ish, which I doubt will pop. Swansea has never scored against Soton at home in three league matches all-time; they've never scored in the first half against the Saints in seven league matches as well. UNDER would be worth a look but at the 2.15 level, it's not worth playing.
GL!
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
More jokes in the line with Leicester City, the cash cow that keeps on giving. Now they want to give the league leaders 3/4 of a goal at the Emirates. Leicester was trounced early in the season at home by the Gunners, 5-2. It was the lone clunker of a performance all season from the Foxes and you can be sure they will be out to make amends. Claudio Ranieri has done a great job is making adjustments and his side has not lost in six rematches in the Premiership this term. Still, the Foxes are winless in thelr last 18 in league play against Arsenal, with 12 losses in that stretch (eight in a row in London). The contrast will be interesting - Leicester plays the second-most passes long (21 percent) in the EPL whereas the Big Arse plays the lowest percentage in the whole league (9.3 percent). I would consider a play on OVER, as you have 3 of the 4 guys who have been involved in 20-plus goals this season in this game. Yet Arsenal's stats in their last 11 games vs. league leaders are eye-opening: they have just one win, with six defeats and four draws, and have been outscored 18-4 in those games. So the Arsenal fans that criticize Arsene Wenger have a right to argue that they really don't perform well when the lights are the brightest.
The play: Leicester City +0.5 +128 for 3.5u
Villa sit at the bottom of the table, but the league form has been better as of late, with no losses in the last four at Villa Park. Liverpool has had great success there in the past, with wins in the last four league visits there and just one defeat in 17 league trips. Line is about what I made it; pass.
Will await the confirmation that Kompany is playing for City tomorrow; if he is then MCFC suddenly looks the attractive side after the beating they absorbed to Leicester last week. No play for now and will analyze this one in greater detail tomorrow.
The play: Leicester City +0.5 +128 for 3.5u
Villa sit at the bottom of the table, but the league form has been better as of late, with no losses in the last four at Villa Park. Liverpool has had great success there in the past, with wins in the last four league visits there and just one defeat in 17 league trips. Line is about what I made it; pass.
Will await the confirmation that Kompany is playing for City tomorrow; if he is then MCFC suddenly looks the attractive side after the beating they absorbed to Leicester last week. No play for now and will analyze this one in greater detail tomorrow.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I went for more, +0.75 +110 another unit, what a joke
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Had to take a few days off after that stinging defeat with 10-man Leicester unable to hang on to a lead with a half-hour to play at Arsenal. Fitting that I'll go back to that same venue to get some more of Arsene Wenger's bunch. Score it 1-2-1 from 9 and 10 days back and -6.22. Now 87-84-6 and +14.16 on the season.
Barcelona travels north to London for a round of 16 fixture against the Gunners. Real Madrid and Arsenal are the only sides to reach the round of 16 in each season since the new format was introduced in 2003-04, but Big Arse has also been eliminated in each of the last five seasons without ever reaching the quarterfinals.
This is the 12th straight season for the Catalons to advance to the knockout stage and Barca has been to at least the semifinals in seven of the last eight seasons, with four titles in the last 10 seasons. No other team has more than one. Barca has also prevailed in all 3 battles against the Gunners in home & away knockout fixtures. The seven previous battles between the two sides has produced 3.86 goals per game. Barca seem a cinch to net multiple goals if history is any indicator; the Spanish side has scored in each of their last 19 Champions League games since the start of the 2014-15 season, with 15 wins (two losses, two draws) in that time frame. Meanwhile, Arsenal have also been finding the back of the net in this competition, with 13 straight games of at least one goal in Champions League play going back through last season.
The problems for the Big Arse at this level have largely been their own failures at the Emirates - Bayern Munchen handled them by two goals there in 2012-13 and 2013-14 and Monaco did the same last season. It's safe to say the Barca offense is a bigger threat now than even the German giants were in those two previous seasons. Not only that, the hosts are now missing Gabriel with a hamstring and will be stuck with the slowish Per Mertesacker being in charge of central defending with Laurent Koscielny against the terrifying Barca forwards. Good luck with that. Barca is unbeaten since Oct. 3, a span of 32 matches. Fun fact - Leo Messi is goalless against Petr Cech in six career games against the famed goaltender. I expect that to change today, and for Messi to bag his first goal at the Emirates, as well. Look for the favorites to win this one, something along the lines or 3-1 or 3-2.
The plays: Barca -105 for 2u and OVER 2.75 -117 for 1.7 units
The other fixture today in an entertaining Tuesday takes place in Turin, where Juventus will host Bayern Munich. Both clubs are comfortably in control of their domestic leagues, with Juventus having a 15-match Serie A winning streak dating back to autumn (13 in all competitions) ending in a 0-0 one-sided draw at Bologna. Munchen fell behind before the half in a Bundesliga game at home to Darmstadt before rallying for three second half goals. The pairing of Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski have combined to score 39 goals in 22 Bundesliga games.
Munchen have qualified for the semis of this event in five of the last six seasons and should be looking for an all-important away goal.
The Germans enter a weakened side due to some injuries, particularly in central defense. Pep Guardiola all but said "we hardly have any players", with Tasci and Benatia just training recently and a central defense that will be asked to slow the 6-foot-3 Mario Mandzukic, Bonucci, Barzagli, Khedira and Pogba on set pieces, there will certainly be chances for the Italians to chime in should they get those big guys in goal-scoring positions; Alaba and Kimmich (5-foot-11 and 5-foot-9) are going to be the central defenders. Yikes. That said, Juve scored just six goals in the group stage, the fewest of any in the last of 16. On the other end of the spectrum, Munchen netted 19 times to lead all teams (tied with Real Madrid) for most goals scored in the 2015 portion of this Champions League season.
The Bianconeri are invincible against every European club at home EXCEPT for Munchen. The Germans were the last team to win in Turin (April 2013) in European play and remain the only foreign club to ever win at the Juventus Stadium. Pep's bunch will be pressing early and often for the big road goal or goals that give Munchen the edge going home for Leg 2. Lots of familiarity within the sides; Arturo Vidal will be making his return to Juve for the first time since his departure, and Khedira would like nothing more than to score on his fellow countrymen and many World Cup champion teammates. Mandzukic left Munich on bad terms two years ago, sold to Atletico Madrid despite helping the Bavarians win back-to-back lead titles. He scored 18 times in the league and 26 in all competitions, yet the Croat was jettisoned out in favor of Lewandowski.
The offensive prowess of Munchen at plus-money is just too much to overcome for the hosts. I wanted to play Munchen at a PICK and -120 ish or so, but the market isn't that kind to me, so I'll pass, and would not be shocked by a 0-0 scoreline or Munchen, 1-0. Neuer in back, even with the makeshift central defense, should keep out anything from the low-scoring hosts. Pass and GL...
:shake:
Barcelona travels north to London for a round of 16 fixture against the Gunners. Real Madrid and Arsenal are the only sides to reach the round of 16 in each season since the new format was introduced in 2003-04, but Big Arse has also been eliminated in each of the last five seasons without ever reaching the quarterfinals.
This is the 12th straight season for the Catalons to advance to the knockout stage and Barca has been to at least the semifinals in seven of the last eight seasons, with four titles in the last 10 seasons. No other team has more than one. Barca has also prevailed in all 3 battles against the Gunners in home & away knockout fixtures. The seven previous battles between the two sides has produced 3.86 goals per game. Barca seem a cinch to net multiple goals if history is any indicator; the Spanish side has scored in each of their last 19 Champions League games since the start of the 2014-15 season, with 15 wins (two losses, two draws) in that time frame. Meanwhile, Arsenal have also been finding the back of the net in this competition, with 13 straight games of at least one goal in Champions League play going back through last season.
The problems for the Big Arse at this level have largely been their own failures at the Emirates - Bayern Munchen handled them by two goals there in 2012-13 and 2013-14 and Monaco did the same last season. It's safe to say the Barca offense is a bigger threat now than even the German giants were in those two previous seasons. Not only that, the hosts are now missing Gabriel with a hamstring and will be stuck with the slowish Per Mertesacker being in charge of central defending with Laurent Koscielny against the terrifying Barca forwards. Good luck with that. Barca is unbeaten since Oct. 3, a span of 32 matches. Fun fact - Leo Messi is goalless against Petr Cech in six career games against the famed goaltender. I expect that to change today, and for Messi to bag his first goal at the Emirates, as well. Look for the favorites to win this one, something along the lines or 3-1 or 3-2.
The plays: Barca -105 for 2u and OVER 2.75 -117 for 1.7 units
The other fixture today in an entertaining Tuesday takes place in Turin, where Juventus will host Bayern Munich. Both clubs are comfortably in control of their domestic leagues, with Juventus having a 15-match Serie A winning streak dating back to autumn (13 in all competitions) ending in a 0-0 one-sided draw at Bologna. Munchen fell behind before the half in a Bundesliga game at home to Darmstadt before rallying for three second half goals. The pairing of Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski have combined to score 39 goals in 22 Bundesliga games.
Munchen have qualified for the semis of this event in five of the last six seasons and should be looking for an all-important away goal.
The Germans enter a weakened side due to some injuries, particularly in central defense. Pep Guardiola all but said "we hardly have any players", with Tasci and Benatia just training recently and a central defense that will be asked to slow the 6-foot-3 Mario Mandzukic, Bonucci, Barzagli, Khedira and Pogba on set pieces, there will certainly be chances for the Italians to chime in should they get those big guys in goal-scoring positions; Alaba and Kimmich (5-foot-11 and 5-foot-9) are going to be the central defenders. Yikes. That said, Juve scored just six goals in the group stage, the fewest of any in the last of 16. On the other end of the spectrum, Munchen netted 19 times to lead all teams (tied with Real Madrid) for most goals scored in the 2015 portion of this Champions League season.
The Bianconeri are invincible against every European club at home EXCEPT for Munchen. The Germans were the last team to win in Turin (April 2013) in European play and remain the only foreign club to ever win at the Juventus Stadium. Pep's bunch will be pressing early and often for the big road goal or goals that give Munchen the edge going home for Leg 2. Lots of familiarity within the sides; Arturo Vidal will be making his return to Juve for the first time since his departure, and Khedira would like nothing more than to score on his fellow countrymen and many World Cup champion teammates. Mandzukic left Munich on bad terms two years ago, sold to Atletico Madrid despite helping the Bavarians win back-to-back lead titles. He scored 18 times in the league and 26 in all competitions, yet the Croat was jettisoned out in favor of Lewandowski.
The offensive prowess of Munchen at plus-money is just too much to overcome for the hosts. I wanted to play Munchen at a PICK and -120 ish or so, but the market isn't that kind to me, so I'll pass, and would not be shocked by a 0-0 scoreline or Munchen, 1-0. Neuer in back, even with the makeshift central defense, should keep out anything from the low-scoring hosts. Pass and GL...
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
To win 0.01 units yesterday was semi criminal. Should have had DRAW in Italy and was very unlucky to not get at least 3 at the Emirates. Sigh, onto today.
To Holland, where Atletico Madrid invade in what should be a tight battle. PSV coach Phillip Cocu has basically stated that he would be content with a 0-0 draw, as conceding here would greatly reduce the Dutch side's chances to advance to the quarters for the first time in nine years; European teams really have struggled to score at the Caudelron and Atletico have kept 11 clean sheets in its last 15 CL games. PSV fielded the youngest roster in the group stages of all qualified sides; they'll have to grow up quick against the Atletico veterans.
The Dutch side will fancy playing at the Phillips Stadium; they scored two goals in each of the three group stage home games against CSKA, Manchester United and Wolfsburg and won all three games. Easier said than done in repeating that today against an Atletico team that has conceded just 11 goals in 26 Liga and UEFA CL games this season. PSV captain Luuk deJong will miss to suspension, but Guardado and Lestienne should both feature after overcoming injuries. I'd like to play a 0-0 draw but in eight CL games against Spanish sides, PSV has never kept a clean sheet. Diego Simone's side have failed to score in four of their last six road CL games. PSV has won eight straight in league play to keep a one-point lead over Ajax in the Eredivisie but the Rojiblancos continues their strong run in the superior La Liga, sitting second behind runaway Barcelona. Tough game, but I'll call for 0-0 or 1-1 and see value on the dog.
The plays: DRAW +238 for 1u and PSV +0.5 +103 for 1u
Kiev and City is tough to handicap; the hosts have not played a meaningful match since Matchday 6 since the Ukrainian League is still on winter break. Temps will be around freezing tonight in Kyiv at the NSK Olimpiyskiy.
City has entered a crippling stretch of the schedule where the season might be getting away from the Citizens. Two home league losses to top contenders Leicester and Tottenham came before a 'Lay Down Sally' effort at Chelsea in the FA Cup last weekend. MCFC have never advanced to the quarterfinals of this competition. For contrasting sakes, the starting goaltender for Kiev (captain Oleksandr Shovkovskiy) also started on their 1999 UEFA CL semifinal team, is 41 years old and has been involved with that club since he was eight. To be fair to City, this is the first time they've advanced as group winners, and they did get stuck with Barcelona each of the last two seasons.
MCFC is in the midst of a ton of fixtures, and injuries are a concern everywhere. Vincent Kompany just came back from a long-term injury, yet Kevin De Bruyne (knee), Fabian Delph (achilles), Samir Nasri (thigh), Eliaquim Mangala (knee), Jesus Navas (knee), Bacary Sagna (knee) and Wilfred Bony (calf) are all either out or are severe doubts and none will start. This for a City squad that is already the oldest in the competition's group stages.
Meanwhile, Kiev has been idle since Dec. 9, save for 13 friendlies that have largely been prepping the hosts for this spot. English sides are winless in five trips to Ukraine in this competition dating to 2007. Dynamo played Chelsea to a 0-0 in the group stage game at home earlier this season, basically avoiding taking any risks and playing on the counter. It would be easy to see that a possible final scoreline (satisfactory to both heading to England), with the Ukrainians trying to avoid giving up any away goals. One problem: City is the only side of the last 16 that didn't keep any clean sheets in the six group games. More telling, none of their 34 games in CL history have ever ended 0-0. It's a pretty safe bet to say SOMETHING is going to happen tonight. Sergio Aguero has 15 goals in his last 16 CL starts, so he's certainly touted to be the man to find the back of the net for the guests.
Yaya Toure will feature for the guests, but he likely won't find this a fun experience. He head racist slurs coming at home by the CSKA Moscow fans in 2013 in another fixture in the eastern half of the continent, and because of the chants against Chelsea, this game was supposed to be played behind closed doors before UEFA lifted the ban a couple of weeks ago. Good read on Squawka about that, by the way.
I waited this one out to see if Andriy Yarmolenko was gonna give it a go; he is, and so am I. Thinking along the lines of 1-1 here.
The play: Dynamo Kiev +1/2 -145 for 1.5u (missed the 1/2 -138 that was there just before i submitted. someone who was firing more $ than me evidently got the info seconds before me. Ugh, battling the Euros on a twitter feed that I don't know to get the information hardly seems a fair fight, haha)...
To Holland, where Atletico Madrid invade in what should be a tight battle. PSV coach Phillip Cocu has basically stated that he would be content with a 0-0 draw, as conceding here would greatly reduce the Dutch side's chances to advance to the quarters for the first time in nine years; European teams really have struggled to score at the Caudelron and Atletico have kept 11 clean sheets in its last 15 CL games. PSV fielded the youngest roster in the group stages of all qualified sides; they'll have to grow up quick against the Atletico veterans.
The Dutch side will fancy playing at the Phillips Stadium; they scored two goals in each of the three group stage home games against CSKA, Manchester United and Wolfsburg and won all three games. Easier said than done in repeating that today against an Atletico team that has conceded just 11 goals in 26 Liga and UEFA CL games this season. PSV captain Luuk deJong will miss to suspension, but Guardado and Lestienne should both feature after overcoming injuries. I'd like to play a 0-0 draw but in eight CL games against Spanish sides, PSV has never kept a clean sheet. Diego Simone's side have failed to score in four of their last six road CL games. PSV has won eight straight in league play to keep a one-point lead over Ajax in the Eredivisie but the Rojiblancos continues their strong run in the superior La Liga, sitting second behind runaway Barcelona. Tough game, but I'll call for 0-0 or 1-1 and see value on the dog.
The plays: DRAW +238 for 1u and PSV +0.5 +103 for 1u
Kiev and City is tough to handicap; the hosts have not played a meaningful match since Matchday 6 since the Ukrainian League is still on winter break. Temps will be around freezing tonight in Kyiv at the NSK Olimpiyskiy.
City has entered a crippling stretch of the schedule where the season might be getting away from the Citizens. Two home league losses to top contenders Leicester and Tottenham came before a 'Lay Down Sally' effort at Chelsea in the FA Cup last weekend. MCFC have never advanced to the quarterfinals of this competition. For contrasting sakes, the starting goaltender for Kiev (captain Oleksandr Shovkovskiy) also started on their 1999 UEFA CL semifinal team, is 41 years old and has been involved with that club since he was eight. To be fair to City, this is the first time they've advanced as group winners, and they did get stuck with Barcelona each of the last two seasons.
MCFC is in the midst of a ton of fixtures, and injuries are a concern everywhere. Vincent Kompany just came back from a long-term injury, yet Kevin De Bruyne (knee), Fabian Delph (achilles), Samir Nasri (thigh), Eliaquim Mangala (knee), Jesus Navas (knee), Bacary Sagna (knee) and Wilfred Bony (calf) are all either out or are severe doubts and none will start. This for a City squad that is already the oldest in the competition's group stages.
Meanwhile, Kiev has been idle since Dec. 9, save for 13 friendlies that have largely been prepping the hosts for this spot. English sides are winless in five trips to Ukraine in this competition dating to 2007. Dynamo played Chelsea to a 0-0 in the group stage game at home earlier this season, basically avoiding taking any risks and playing on the counter. It would be easy to see that a possible final scoreline (satisfactory to both heading to England), with the Ukrainians trying to avoid giving up any away goals. One problem: City is the only side of the last 16 that didn't keep any clean sheets in the six group games. More telling, none of their 34 games in CL history have ever ended 0-0. It's a pretty safe bet to say SOMETHING is going to happen tonight. Sergio Aguero has 15 goals in his last 16 CL starts, so he's certainly touted to be the man to find the back of the net for the guests.
Yaya Toure will feature for the guests, but he likely won't find this a fun experience. He head racist slurs coming at home by the CSKA Moscow fans in 2013 in another fixture in the eastern half of the continent, and because of the chants against Chelsea, this game was supposed to be played behind closed doors before UEFA lifted the ban a couple of weeks ago. Good read on Squawka about that, by the way.
I waited this one out to see if Andriy Yarmolenko was gonna give it a go; he is, and so am I. Thinking along the lines of 1-1 here.
The play: Dynamo Kiev +1/2 -145 for 1.5u (missed the 1/2 -138 that was there just before i submitted. someone who was firing more $ than me evidently got the info seconds before me. Ugh, battling the Euros on a twitter feed that I don't know to get the information hardly seems a fair fight, haha)...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
CL Round of 16 Matchday 1 saw a modest 2-2-1 record and a 1.24 unit win. Kudos to PSV for battening down the hatches after going down to 10 men for the last quarter of their game Wednesday. I'm not sure Atletico knows how to score when they are a man up; they looked confused most of the time when forced to attack. Now 89-86-7 and +15.40 on the season.
To Saturday's EPL:
West Ham plays host to former coach Sam Allardyce at Upton Park in the weekend's lidlifter. Allardyce coached the Hammers from 2011-2015 and took over at Sunderland in the first match after these two played to a 2-2 draw at Sunderland. The Hammers have won just one of their last five league games and have slipped to seventh in the table, while the Black Cats are still in the relegation zone. After picking up four points in the last two fixtures against Liverpool and ManU, however, Allardyce has reason to believe his squad has renewed confidence of not going down. West Ham has not lost at Upton Park in league play since August, and the Black Cats have won just two of their last 15 away games in league play. Sunderland has allowed 158 shots on target in league play this season, which is most in the EPL. An easy lay at this price.
The play: West Ham -118 for 1.5u
It pains me to even type or talk about Leicester City and the crime they were victims of at Arsenal last out (five minutes ref, really?), but the league leaders are back in action at home now with a pivotal five game stretch in the next three weeks before the international break that will likely determine their title hopes, so says manager Claudio Ranieri. Watford (in ninth) is the only foe currently in the top-13 in the table in this stretch of fixtures, so Leicester should be able to make some hay. It starts here against the Canaries, winless since January 2nd. Both teams have had two weeks off and the hangover effect could be real for the hosts, but Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez have combined to score 33 goals, while Norwich's whole team has just 30 on the season. Norwich also has gone 13 straight on the road without a clean sheet, and have conceded the most goals in the league (50, tied with Sunderland). Expect a barrage of goals from the hosts, which won the reverse fixture at Carrow Road in October 2-1. Lay it.
The play: Leicester -167 for 2.5u and Leicester first half -1/2 +114 for 1.3u
Chelsea has the home reversal working for them when they travel to St. Mary's to face Southampton, who thrashed them 3-1 at Stamford Bridge. The Blues hadn't lost since Guus Hiddink took over until PSG beat them in CL action last week; they responded by dick-whipping a weakened Manchester City side 5-1 in the FA Cup last weekend. Contrasting trends here, as the Saints have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games in league play against Chelsea and there have been four goals scored in the first 20 minutes in the last three league matches between these two. Yet the Saints have played nine hours and 14 minutes without conceding a goal in league play; this run of five wins and a draw in their last six matches has helped vault them to sixth in the table, one point Manchester United for European qualification. This is on the heels of a run where Soton won just one in 10 games in all competitions before Christmas. The Blues have climbed to 12th in the league and are seven points back of Soton heading into this fixture thanks to a run of 10 straight league matches without defeat. Enough for me. The four game home winning streak ends for Soton, but each side will get a point out of it. The big question is whether goalkeeeper Fraser Forster can keep Chelsea out for 34 minutes, thereby breaking a new Premier League club record for most time without conceding.
The play: Chelsea/Soton DRAW +235 for 1.5u
Stoke seems cheap to me. Playing against a beleaguered Aston Villa side that were thrashed 6-0 by Liverpool two weeks back, and at home. Remi Garde obviously would like to make some changes, but what can he do? The options are limited at best, and relegation seems imminent for the cellar dwellars; Stoke is off a nice win at Bournemouth and the Potters should be aided by Shawcross's return to the struggling backline. Arnautovic should fancy his chances against a Villa side that sit in last by a full seven points. Each side have failed to score in 11 matches this season, tied for league high with Newcastle. I don't think Stoke will get shut out, however.
The play: Stoke -140 for 1.5u
No real opinion on Bournemouth and Watford on the side, but I do expect some fireworks. I'll chat more about this one later on.
Palace go to West Brom not knowing what to expect. Palace mauled them 2-0 at home back on Oct. 3 in what was one of the worst WBA efforts of the season. West Brom fans also pegged Chris Brunt just below the left eye with a coin after last weekend's fifth-round FA Cup loss at Reading. West Bromwich led 1-0 at half before surrendering 3 times in the second half; in Brunt's post-game interview he said it was it was the most disgusting and appalling thing he'd ever seen in football. You can expect an electric atmosphere at The Hawthorns, but the hosts haven't won at home since New Year's Day. Tony Pulis used to coach at Crystal Palace, so you can assume he'll amp up the effort from the Baggies, with Brunt being a key figure in trying to slow down Wilfried Zaha. Palace has been running bad in the league and are now level with WBA on points in 13th place, winless since Dec. 19 - but Palace did win at Tottenham in the FA Cup last week so the mood around Selhurst Park this week has been considerably more upbeat. Picking a winner is too tough here.
The play: CP/WBA DRAW +217 for 1.5u
GL!
:shake:
To Saturday's EPL:
West Ham plays host to former coach Sam Allardyce at Upton Park in the weekend's lidlifter. Allardyce coached the Hammers from 2011-2015 and took over at Sunderland in the first match after these two played to a 2-2 draw at Sunderland. The Hammers have won just one of their last five league games and have slipped to seventh in the table, while the Black Cats are still in the relegation zone. After picking up four points in the last two fixtures against Liverpool and ManU, however, Allardyce has reason to believe his squad has renewed confidence of not going down. West Ham has not lost at Upton Park in league play since August, and the Black Cats have won just two of their last 15 away games in league play. Sunderland has allowed 158 shots on target in league play this season, which is most in the EPL. An easy lay at this price.
The play: West Ham -118 for 1.5u
It pains me to even type or talk about Leicester City and the crime they were victims of at Arsenal last out (five minutes ref, really?), but the league leaders are back in action at home now with a pivotal five game stretch in the next three weeks before the international break that will likely determine their title hopes, so says manager Claudio Ranieri. Watford (in ninth) is the only foe currently in the top-13 in the table in this stretch of fixtures, so Leicester should be able to make some hay. It starts here against the Canaries, winless since January 2nd. Both teams have had two weeks off and the hangover effect could be real for the hosts, but Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez have combined to score 33 goals, while Norwich's whole team has just 30 on the season. Norwich also has gone 13 straight on the road without a clean sheet, and have conceded the most goals in the league (50, tied with Sunderland). Expect a barrage of goals from the hosts, which won the reverse fixture at Carrow Road in October 2-1. Lay it.
The play: Leicester -167 for 2.5u and Leicester first half -1/2 +114 for 1.3u
Chelsea has the home reversal working for them when they travel to St. Mary's to face Southampton, who thrashed them 3-1 at Stamford Bridge. The Blues hadn't lost since Guus Hiddink took over until PSG beat them in CL action last week; they responded by dick-whipping a weakened Manchester City side 5-1 in the FA Cup last weekend. Contrasting trends here, as the Saints have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games in league play against Chelsea and there have been four goals scored in the first 20 minutes in the last three league matches between these two. Yet the Saints have played nine hours and 14 minutes without conceding a goal in league play; this run of five wins and a draw in their last six matches has helped vault them to sixth in the table, one point Manchester United for European qualification. This is on the heels of a run where Soton won just one in 10 games in all competitions before Christmas. The Blues have climbed to 12th in the league and are seven points back of Soton heading into this fixture thanks to a run of 10 straight league matches without defeat. Enough for me. The four game home winning streak ends for Soton, but each side will get a point out of it. The big question is whether goalkeeeper Fraser Forster can keep Chelsea out for 34 minutes, thereby breaking a new Premier League club record for most time without conceding.
The play: Chelsea/Soton DRAW +235 for 1.5u
Stoke seems cheap to me. Playing against a beleaguered Aston Villa side that were thrashed 6-0 by Liverpool two weeks back, and at home. Remi Garde obviously would like to make some changes, but what can he do? The options are limited at best, and relegation seems imminent for the cellar dwellars; Stoke is off a nice win at Bournemouth and the Potters should be aided by Shawcross's return to the struggling backline. Arnautovic should fancy his chances against a Villa side that sit in last by a full seven points. Each side have failed to score in 11 matches this season, tied for league high with Newcastle. I don't think Stoke will get shut out, however.
The play: Stoke -140 for 1.5u
No real opinion on Bournemouth and Watford on the side, but I do expect some fireworks. I'll chat more about this one later on.
Palace go to West Brom not knowing what to expect. Palace mauled them 2-0 at home back on Oct. 3 in what was one of the worst WBA efforts of the season. West Brom fans also pegged Chris Brunt just below the left eye with a coin after last weekend's fifth-round FA Cup loss at Reading. West Bromwich led 1-0 at half before surrendering 3 times in the second half; in Brunt's post-game interview he said it was it was the most disgusting and appalling thing he'd ever seen in football. You can expect an electric atmosphere at The Hawthorns, but the hosts haven't won at home since New Year's Day. Tony Pulis used to coach at Crystal Palace, so you can assume he'll amp up the effort from the Baggies, with Brunt being a key figure in trying to slow down Wilfried Zaha. Palace has been running bad in the league and are now level with WBA on points in 13th place, winless since Dec. 19 - but Palace did win at Tottenham in the FA Cup last week so the mood around Selhurst Park this week has been considerably more upbeat. Picking a winner is too tough here.
The play: CP/WBA DRAW +217 for 1.5u
GL!
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
ManU have a shot at winning three straight for the first time since November, and it would mark a great work for Louie vanGaal; while Big Arse are coming off a loss and a draw in their last two since the miracle luckbox/BS win against Leicester a fortnight back. Tough spot for them to go in and win given the circumstances. Them being favored by this much is actually hard for me to fathom at Old Trafford, though they are trotting out quite an attacking XI and will have Giroud to go to for late offense late if needed. Big Arse winless here in last eight league visits, with two draws.
The plays: ManU PICK +145 for 1u and DRAW +241 for 1u
Nothing at White Hart Lane; lean Swansea but wanted 1.25 flat or better. Looks like steam on my side, so nothing for me.
The plays: ManU PICK +145 for 1u and DRAW +241 for 1u
Nothing at White Hart Lane; lean Swansea but wanted 1.25 flat or better. Looks like steam on my side, so nothing for me.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
If Bournemouth doesn't score in the first 15 minutes (they lead the league with eight goals in the first 15 minutes of their 27 fixtures), then their chances of scoring aren't very good. Fraser Forster went 708 minutes before allowing a Premier League goal this season before Chelsea pipped him twice in the second half to stun the Saints at home over the weekend. Bournemouth have just two wins in their last 10 EPL matches at home and have just eight goals in their 10 matches since Boxing Day, with five scoreless efforts in that span. The Saints have beaten Bournemouth in each of the last five league meetings vs. Bournemouth; it all points to low-scoring and I lean Soton or DRAW but pass at this price.
Goal differential points me to Everton today at Villa Park, and the fact that the Toffees have been solid away from home. They are 12th in the table despite being +11 goals, which is fifth-best in the league. Villa is -27, and that's good for last. Lukaku has five goals in four meetings in league play against Villa and I'll call for him to find the back of the net today.
The play: Everton -113 for 2u
West Brom have attempted a league-low 82 shots on target in EPL play this season. Meanwhile, Leicester City have not allowed a goal at the King Power Stadium in 463 minutes. WBA have climbed to 13th in the table and temporarily away from trouble after a few solid recent efforts. Won't try to buck the league leaders, who continue to be priced like a mid-table team.
The play: Leicester -140 for 2u
Guus Hiddink is crying about Chelsea's crowded schedule. The Blues are far from Europe for next season, but are still involved in both the FA Cup and the 2015-16 Champions League. This is the second match where CFC will play five in 15 days, so perhaps the Dutchman will field a weakened side today at Norwich. I took a flier on that, at least. The hosts are desperate to get away from the relegation zone; only goal differential is keeping them ahead of Newcastle at this point and NC has a game in hand still. The Canaries haven't won any of their last seven but were game at Leicester before losing at the gun Saturday. I can't see Norwich having much success on offense; outside of Steven Naismith, who plied his trade elsewhere when scoring six goals in his last 7 EPL matches vs. Chelsea, there are no real offensive threats. They have just four goals in the last nine league matches against Chelsea, seven of which were losses with two draws. I'll shoot for 1-1 or 0-0.
The plays: Chelsea/Norwich DRAW +300 for 1u
Chelsea/Norwich UNDER 2.5 even for 1.5
Match trends favor Palace today at the Stadium of Light. Host Sunderland hasn't won back-to-back home games since May 2014, and the visitors have won the last three matches in the series going back to 2014. Sunderland has also kept just two clean sheets at home all season and perhaps Palace can take some solace in the fightback at Albion last week, when losing 3-2 after trailing 3-0 at the break. The Black Cats have given up exactly one goal at home in each of their last six matches. For live guys, note that just two of the 14 goals in the last five meetings between these sides in the Premiership have come in the first half. Fireworks could come after the intermission. Palace have no wins in their last 10 league matches and have just three points to show for those efforts, worse than anyone else as they continue their slide down the table. They have yet to record a clean sheet in eight 2016 league fixtures. Both sides to score? Seems easy enough.
The play: CP/Sund BOTH TO SCORE - YES -104 for 1.2u
GL!
:shake:
Goal differential points me to Everton today at Villa Park, and the fact that the Toffees have been solid away from home. They are 12th in the table despite being +11 goals, which is fifth-best in the league. Villa is -27, and that's good for last. Lukaku has five goals in four meetings in league play against Villa and I'll call for him to find the back of the net today.
The play: Everton -113 for 2u
West Brom have attempted a league-low 82 shots on target in EPL play this season. Meanwhile, Leicester City have not allowed a goal at the King Power Stadium in 463 minutes. WBA have climbed to 13th in the table and temporarily away from trouble after a few solid recent efforts. Won't try to buck the league leaders, who continue to be priced like a mid-table team.
The play: Leicester -140 for 2u
Guus Hiddink is crying about Chelsea's crowded schedule. The Blues are far from Europe for next season, but are still involved in both the FA Cup and the 2015-16 Champions League. This is the second match where CFC will play five in 15 days, so perhaps the Dutchman will field a weakened side today at Norwich. I took a flier on that, at least. The hosts are desperate to get away from the relegation zone; only goal differential is keeping them ahead of Newcastle at this point and NC has a game in hand still. The Canaries haven't won any of their last seven but were game at Leicester before losing at the gun Saturday. I can't see Norwich having much success on offense; outside of Steven Naismith, who plied his trade elsewhere when scoring six goals in his last 7 EPL matches vs. Chelsea, there are no real offensive threats. They have just four goals in the last nine league matches against Chelsea, seven of which were losses with two draws. I'll shoot for 1-1 or 0-0.
The plays: Chelsea/Norwich DRAW +300 for 1u
Chelsea/Norwich UNDER 2.5 even for 1.5
Match trends favor Palace today at the Stadium of Light. Host Sunderland hasn't won back-to-back home games since May 2014, and the visitors have won the last three matches in the series going back to 2014. Sunderland has also kept just two clean sheets at home all season and perhaps Palace can take some solace in the fightback at Albion last week, when losing 3-2 after trailing 3-0 at the break. The Black Cats have given up exactly one goal at home in each of their last six matches. For live guys, note that just two of the 14 goals in the last five meetings between these sides in the Premiership have come in the first half. Fireworks could come after the intermission. Palace have no wins in their last 10 league matches and have just three points to show for those efforts, worse than anyone else as they continue their slide down the table. They have yet to record a clean sheet in eight 2016 league fixtures. Both sides to score? Seems easy enough.
The play: CP/Sund BOTH TO SCORE - YES -104 for 1.2u
GL!
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Swansea travel back to North London after missing out on points at Tottenham over the weekend. This line is insulting, considering their heads up record (4 wins) against Arsenal since being promoted in 2011. While they are sitting in 16th, scoring has proved to be a problem but the Arsenal defense has been lacking a bit of late. Should the Gunners win? I reckon, but by more than a goal - i'll pay to see it.
The play: Swansea +1.5 -105 for 1.7u
Made ManU about what they are against Watford. The guests have only lost one of their last five, but have not scored in five of their last seven league games. The 57 goals scored in all Watford league games is fewer than any other team. ManU has tapped a goal-scoring vein over the weekend against Arsenal, but a scoreless draw sure seems possible here, as does MUFC 1-0.
The play: Watford/ManU UNDER 2.5 -127 for 3u
Tottenham in the biggest week of its season; travelling to 6th-place West Ham today before facing north London rival Arsenal over the weekend. Spurs are in position to take the league lead with a win here and try to win its first title in 55 years. Spurs unbeaten in their last 12 away games, partially because they have conceded only 11 times in the last 14 trips away from home in EPL games. It looks 0-0 or 1-1 to me.
The play: West Ham +1/2 -101 for 1u, DRAW +260 for 1u
Stoke is priced about right; they almost never can be minus-money, but Newcastle is truly woeful on the road. The Magpies have just seven points away from home this season, and have been outscored 48-9 in its last 20 away fixtures. The guests have not won at the Britannia since 2011 and were thrashed 5-1 by Chelsea last out, though that was 18 days ago. Too many unknowns for me here; pass.
Man City just beat Liverpool at Wembley to win the League Cup on Sunday, and the two meet again at Anfield tonight. City hasn't lost three in row in league play since 2008 and currently sit nine behind Leicester entering play today. Line reflects the Citizens as a short favorite, which I deem to be appropriate. No play here.
GL!
:shake:
The play: Swansea +1.5 -105 for 1.7u
Made ManU about what they are against Watford. The guests have only lost one of their last five, but have not scored in five of their last seven league games. The 57 goals scored in all Watford league games is fewer than any other team. ManU has tapped a goal-scoring vein over the weekend against Arsenal, but a scoreless draw sure seems possible here, as does MUFC 1-0.
The play: Watford/ManU UNDER 2.5 -127 for 3u
Tottenham in the biggest week of its season; travelling to 6th-place West Ham today before facing north London rival Arsenal over the weekend. Spurs are in position to take the league lead with a win here and try to win its first title in 55 years. Spurs unbeaten in their last 12 away games, partially because they have conceded only 11 times in the last 14 trips away from home in EPL games. It looks 0-0 or 1-1 to me.
The play: West Ham +1/2 -101 for 1u, DRAW +260 for 1u
Stoke is priced about right; they almost never can be minus-money, but Newcastle is truly woeful on the road. The Magpies have just seven points away from home this season, and have been outscored 48-9 in its last 20 away fixtures. The guests have not won at the Britannia since 2011 and were thrashed 5-1 by Chelsea last out, though that was 18 days ago. Too many unknowns for me here; pass.
Man City just beat Liverpool at Wembley to win the League Cup on Sunday, and the two meet again at Anfield tonight. City hasn't lost three in row in league play since 2008 and currently sit nine behind Leicester entering play today. Line reflects the Citizens as a short favorite, which I deem to be appropriate. No play here.
GL!
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Thanks D. No time for writeups out here in Vegas
Big Arse/Tottenham DRAW +235 for 2u
Big Arse/Tottenham DRAW +235 for 2u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Gent +1 even for 1.5u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Let's do a bit of bookkeeping before another CL matchday.
3-3 and +1 on Feb 26
1-0-1 and +1 on Feb 28
2-3 and -1.6 on March 1
3-1 and +4.7 on March 2
1-0 and +4.7 on March 5
0-0-1, 0 on March 8
That's 10-7-2 and +9.8 since the last update. Now 99-93-9 and +25.20 on the season.
PSV +1.5 is an absolute joke. The Dutch champs are in as fine a form as anyone in the competition. They played without their suspended leading scorer Luuk deJong in the first match of this tie, a 0-0 draw at home. Now they'll start with three center backs to protect that result for the time being in a 5-3-2. Atletico Madrid is in fine form, unbeaten in its last eight. But PSV has just one loss in its last 25 in all competitions. They were obviously in a look-ahead spot last weekend when drawing Heerenveen, as they've got this match and then second-place Ajax on deck Sunday. Atletico has lost all four two-legged ties all-time against Dutch clubs. Line should be less than one goal. The only concern of a loss would be if PSV was down a goal late and had to press for the equalizer, only to get pipped on the counter. We'll see.
The play: PSV +1.5 -112 for 2.5u
GL!
3-3 and +1 on Feb 26
1-0-1 and +1 on Feb 28
2-3 and -1.6 on March 1
3-1 and +4.7 on March 2
1-0 and +4.7 on March 5
0-0-1, 0 on March 8
That's 10-7-2 and +9.8 since the last update. Now 99-93-9 and +25.20 on the season.
PSV +1.5 is an absolute joke. The Dutch champs are in as fine a form as anyone in the competition. They played without their suspended leading scorer Luuk deJong in the first match of this tie, a 0-0 draw at home. Now they'll start with three center backs to protect that result for the time being in a 5-3-2. Atletico Madrid is in fine form, unbeaten in its last eight. But PSV has just one loss in its last 25 in all competitions. They were obviously in a look-ahead spot last weekend when drawing Heerenveen, as they've got this match and then second-place Ajax on deck Sunday. Atletico has lost all four two-legged ties all-time against Dutch clubs. Line should be less than one goal. The only concern of a loss would be if PSV was down a goal late and had to press for the equalizer, only to get pipped on the counter. We'll see.
The play: PSV +1.5 -112 for 2.5u
GL!
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Big Arse/Barca OOOOOOOOOOOOOOVER 3.5 -117 for 2u
Not much to say here. Barca bringing out their guns, and the last game could have easily been 4-3 or so. Just sit back and enjoy the barrage of goals
Not much to say here. Barca bringing out their guns, and the last game could have easily been 4-3 or so. Just sit back and enjoy the barrage of goals
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2-0 on the last CL matchday and +4.5. Sat out the last international break; just too much going on and didn't get to give it the appropriate attention. Now 101-93-9 and +29.70 units on the season.
To today: Benfica trotting out its best lineup and have won 19 out of their last 20, including 8 straight. Big step up here in class but the line is a total insult; it's not like Portuguese teams don't belong, this isn't APOEL for Chrissakes.
And Atletico is probably the worst matchup for Barca. Eight of the 11 starters for the hosts were participants two sesaons ago when Atletico knocked them out of the competition. Off the loss, could there be a hangover?
The plays: Benfica +1.75 +101 for 1.6u and Atletico Madrid +1 +103 for 2u
GL!
To today: Benfica trotting out its best lineup and have won 19 out of their last 20, including 8 straight. Big step up here in class but the line is a total insult; it's not like Portuguese teams don't belong, this isn't APOEL for Chrissakes.
And Atletico is probably the worst matchup for Barca. Eight of the 11 starters for the hosts were participants two sesaons ago when Atletico knocked them out of the competition. Off the loss, could there be a hangover?
The plays: Benfica +1.75 +101 for 1.6u and Atletico Madrid +1 +103 for 2u
GL!
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Nothing in germany today; steam was to OVER and I actually lean UNDER. Keylor has given up nada in the CL and off the emotional win in Barcelona last weekend, RM could be a bit flat. Can't see four goals being scored here, but it's a tacit pass at the VW Arena.
Man City is in fine form and I expect them to show their class against PSG, even missing some key players. They've been banged up all season. This has all the makings of 2-2 to me.
The plays: Man City +0.75 +105 for 2u and OVER 2.5 -114 for 1.4u
GL!
Man City is in fine form and I expect them to show their class against PSG, even missing some key players. They've been banged up all season. This has all the makings of 2-2 to me.
The plays: Man City +0.75 +105 for 2u and OVER 2.5 -114 for 1.4u
GL!
Cappingchubster11
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for the plays Rexy, you made me some money today. Looking forward to your Masters plays. BOL!
-Chub
-Chub
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Knew I should have tailed this. Great call, Rexy. Nice win.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
3-0-1 and +4.85 the last couple of days, fucking Barbie Torres cost me another win at the Camp Nou; no way Atletico concedes twice if they're playing with 11 in the second half. Now 104-93-10 and up 34.56 on the season.
Trying my hand at some UEFA Cup action today.
Bilbao has been pretty strong at home in this competition, beating Valencia there 1-0 four weeks ago in the first leg of the UEFA Cup round of 16. Sevilla is the defending champion, so I can see them putting up a good fight, and 1-1 seems reasonable for these two, which are neck-and-neck in the La Liga race.
The play: Sevilla/Bilbao DRAW +250 for 1.5u
Lean UNDER in Portugual, especially with Shakhtar Donetsk missing a lot of players through injury and suspension, but the total is just too low. Pass.
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in their last 12 UEFA Cup matches and there have been just six goals scored (3-3) in Liverpool's last six UEFA Cup road matches. Good enough for me with this high total. Hopefully each team plays a bit cautious early in Klopp's return to Signal-Iduna-Park (or Westfalenstadion, however you want to call it).
The play: Pool/Dortmund UNDER 2.75 -109 for 1.5u
Villareal will be keen to jump on Sparta Prague just as they did Bayer Leverkusen in the last round, winning the first leg 2-0 at home. I figure the line should be close to one flat, so will pass for now but if a 1.25 flat pops up I'll try to Czechs small.
GL today!
Trying my hand at some UEFA Cup action today.
Bilbao has been pretty strong at home in this competition, beating Valencia there 1-0 four weeks ago in the first leg of the UEFA Cup round of 16. Sevilla is the defending champion, so I can see them putting up a good fight, and 1-1 seems reasonable for these two, which are neck-and-neck in the La Liga race.
The play: Sevilla/Bilbao DRAW +250 for 1.5u
Lean UNDER in Portugual, especially with Shakhtar Donetsk missing a lot of players through injury and suspension, but the total is just too low. Pass.
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in their last 12 UEFA Cup matches and there have been just six goals scored (3-3) in Liverpool's last six UEFA Cup road matches. Good enough for me with this high total. Hopefully each team plays a bit cautious early in Klopp's return to Signal-Iduna-Park (or Westfalenstadion, however you want to call it).
The play: Pool/Dortmund UNDER 2.75 -109 for 1.5u
Villareal will be keen to jump on Sparta Prague just as they did Bayer Leverkusen in the last round, winning the first leg 2-0 at home. I figure the line should be close to one flat, so will pass for now but if a 1.25 flat pops up I'll try to Czechs small.
GL today!
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
105-94-10 and up 34.56 after the chopper Thursday.
To Saturday's EPL games... these are the replays of the fixtures of Opening Day back in August.
The first one is a home reversal for Arsenal, which were beaten 2-0 at the Emirates by London rival West Ham. The Hammers have crept up to sixth in the table on the strength of three wins and two draws in their last five, and a win here in the final Derby at Boleyn Ground before the Hammers move to Olympic Stadium to wrap up the season sweep of the Gunners would put them right in the mix for a top-4 spot with six games to play. It would be the first double over Big Arse since 2006-07, but the line is so far out of whack that I don't need a win at Upton Park; only a draw.
The play: West Ham +1/2 -103 for 2u medium
Lots in common between Roberto Martinez's Everton and host Watford; the Hornets and Toffees each had stirring wins in the FA Cup quarterfinals, and then both have failed to win in three EPL games since. Watford have lost four straight and Everton four of five in EPL games. The Hornets sit 14th in the table, one point behind Everton in 12th. Everton awaits the West Ham/ManU winner in the semis while Watford will play Palace in the FA Cup semis. Both of those games will be more meaningful than this mid-table fixture at Vicarage Road. Nothing yet.
West Brom will likely play four center backs at the Ethiad as they did at the Hawthorns when beating ManU last months, but Man City seems to have found a solid form of late. Still, this is a sandwich between the Champions League quarterfinal legs against PSG so tough to say what you'll get from Man City. I'll have to wait out the lineups here.
Back later with the rest of tomorrow's card
To Saturday's EPL games... these are the replays of the fixtures of Opening Day back in August.
The first one is a home reversal for Arsenal, which were beaten 2-0 at the Emirates by London rival West Ham. The Hammers have crept up to sixth in the table on the strength of three wins and two draws in their last five, and a win here in the final Derby at Boleyn Ground before the Hammers move to Olympic Stadium to wrap up the season sweep of the Gunners would put them right in the mix for a top-4 spot with six games to play. It would be the first double over Big Arse since 2006-07, but the line is so far out of whack that I don't need a win at Upton Park; only a draw.
The play: West Ham +1/2 -103 for 2u medium
Lots in common between Roberto Martinez's Everton and host Watford; the Hornets and Toffees each had stirring wins in the FA Cup quarterfinals, and then both have failed to win in three EPL games since. Watford have lost four straight and Everton four of five in EPL games. The Hornets sit 14th in the table, one point behind Everton in 12th. Everton awaits the West Ham/ManU winner in the semis while Watford will play Palace in the FA Cup semis. Both of those games will be more meaningful than this mid-table fixture at Vicarage Road. Nothing yet.
West Brom will likely play four center backs at the Ethiad as they did at the Hawthorns when beating ManU last months, but Man City seems to have found a solid form of late. Still, this is a sandwich between the Champions League quarterfinal legs against PSG so tough to say what you'll get from Man City. I'll have to wait out the lineups here.
Back later with the rest of tomorrow's card
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
So, I'm not going to start my own thread because I don't really have a ton to offer on the play, but I'm going to be on Palace in the AM tomorrow.
Finally—FINALLY—everybody is healthy and this is a game you have to have. Really, it's the game that should solidify them in the premiership next season. Norwich is three points behind them, a win here puts Palace six clear of Norwich and 10 above relegation. Given Palace's form this calendar year, you look at the schedule and the next winable game is at Newcastle. That's it. The rest are all either difficult, away, or both.
That means this is the game you have to have and at full strength Palace should be the better team. Big day at Selhurst for the fans. Palace need this one bad and as much as I'd rather have them at a PK, I'll take them -.5 for plus-money.
Good luck tomorrow, Rex.
Finally—FINALLY—everybody is healthy and this is a game you have to have. Really, it's the game that should solidify them in the premiership next season. Norwich is three points behind them, a win here puts Palace six clear of Norwich and 10 above relegation. Given Palace's form this calendar year, you look at the schedule and the next winable game is at Newcastle. That's it. The rest are all either difficult, away, or both.
That means this is the game you have to have and at full strength Palace should be the better team. Big day at Selhurst for the fans. Palace need this one bad and as much as I'd rather have them at a PK, I'll take them -.5 for plus-money.
Good luck tomorrow, Rex.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
A lean to Swansea, which has heated up to score 10 points in its last five to scoot away from relegation dangers, yet is not quite safe. Chelsea have yet to taste defeat in 14 fixtures under Guus Hiddink. Despite some injuries to the Blues, Swansea have never beaten them in the EPL and lost this fixture 5-0 last season at the Liberty. Pass.
Home reversal for Bournemouth, which lost to Villa on opening day. It was one of only three wins on the season for the Midlands side, which are staring relegation right in the eyeballs. Villa have lost seven straight, being outscored 22-2 in the process. Bournemouth lost to Tottenham and ManCity in its last two but takes a giants step down here in class. At plus money just to win, I'll try it.
The play: Bournemouth +110 for 1.5u
Newcastle are in 19th, six from safety, with just seven matches left. Making the long trip down to Southampton won't be easy. The Magpies scored twice last week but it was not enough as Norwich held them off, 3-2 at Carrow Road. Newcastle are missing Coloccini, Gouffran, Obertan and Marveaux. Soton have had an indifferent form in league play of late and still sit seventh. The first meeting on Opening Day was a 2-2 draw at St. James Park, and a win here would draw the Saints to within two of West Ham after the Hammers drew this morning.
The play: Soton -158 for 1.5u
Joe, I saved your game for last today at Selhurst Park. Palace have failed to win in its last 14 EPL matches, with just four league points out of a possible 42. No chance I can lay minus-money with a team running that bad. While Norwich went 10 straight without a win, their fortunes seem to have turned as of late, coming in off back-to-back wins for the first time since January, and a win today would put them much closer to safety. No play here, GL joe, draw seems likely gun to head, but no value for me in it.
Home reversal for Bournemouth, which lost to Villa on opening day. It was one of only three wins on the season for the Midlands side, which are staring relegation right in the eyeballs. Villa have lost seven straight, being outscored 22-2 in the process. Bournemouth lost to Tottenham and ManCity in its last two but takes a giants step down here in class. At plus money just to win, I'll try it.
The play: Bournemouth +110 for 1.5u
Newcastle are in 19th, six from safety, with just seven matches left. Making the long trip down to Southampton won't be easy. The Magpies scored twice last week but it was not enough as Norwich held them off, 3-2 at Carrow Road. Newcastle are missing Coloccini, Gouffran, Obertan and Marveaux. Soton have had an indifferent form in league play of late and still sit seventh. The first meeting on Opening Day was a 2-2 draw at St. James Park, and a win here would draw the Saints to within two of West Ham after the Hammers drew this morning.
The play: Soton -158 for 1.5u
Joe, I saved your game for last today at Selhurst Park. Palace have failed to win in its last 14 EPL matches, with just four league points out of a possible 42. No chance I can lay minus-money with a team running that bad. While Norwich went 10 straight without a win, their fortunes seem to have turned as of late, coming in off back-to-back wins for the first time since January, and a win today would put them much closer to safety. No play here, GL joe, draw seems likely gun to head, but no value for me in it.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
West Brom catching 1.5 is worth a small play. Even though the Baggies are safely away from relegation and motivation might not be there given their recent struggles against City, I think they can keep this one competitive. The Citizens are in the CL sammich and the lineups show it, with Yaya Toure, Fernandinho and deBruyne starting on the bench. Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna also featured Tuesday and will rest today, at least at the start. WBA is staring at some grim figures; City has scored at least three goals in each of its last 5 EPL matches against Albion and the guests haven't beaten City since Dec of 2008 (1 draw, 11 losses since). The Baggies also have scored just one time in the last three fixtures since a 2-2 draw at Leicester back on March 1. If they could get a result there, maybe they could eke out a draw or 1-goal loss here.
The play: West Brom +1.5 -115 for 1.2u
The play: West Brom +1.5 -115 for 1.2u
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Joe, I saved your game for last today at Selhurst Park.
And I appreciate it. Ha.
Literally they hadn't won a game all calendar year. They needed this game so bad. I was nervous. The crowd was nervous, and you could see the team was nervous from the open. But sure enough, Jason Puncheon—local Croydon boy—finally gets his first goal of the season to give them the lead 70 minutes in. Did he cry after he scored? Yes. Did I? Almost.
Just so emotional.
Massive, massive game for Palace today.
Thanks to the Football & Gambling Gods for the win.
Way to run the table today, Rexy. Great work.
And I appreciate it. Ha.
Literally they hadn't won a game all calendar year. They needed this game so bad. I was nervous. The crowd was nervous, and you could see the team was nervous from the open. But sure enough, Jason Puncheon—local Croydon boy—finally gets his first goal of the season to give them the lead 70 minutes in. Did he cry after he scored? Yes. Did I? Almost.
Just so emotional.
Massive, massive game for Palace today.
Thanks to the Football & Gambling Gods for the win.
Way to run the table today, Rexy. Great work.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Leicester have won four straight by 1-0 margins, and five of six overall by that scoreline. They've not conceded since a 2-2 draw at home back on March 1 to West Brom. That's how you build upon an unlikely league lead. While there are not many fond memories for LCFC at the Stadium of Light (where are there fond memories of anyone my age or younger against top-flight competition?), the 0-0 draw they played at this venue last season guaranteed their safety for the 2015-16 campaign. Leicester also won 4-2 on Opening Day, but this game should be a different one, indeed.
Steam this morning has gone to the home dog, and probably rightfully so. Will the pressure finally start to get to Claudio Raineiri's side, especially considering how stout Sunderland usually plays at this venue in meaningful competitions? The Black Cats are in 18th, four points behind rival Norwich City, and are off four straight draws. At some point, a win or two will be needed, though the hosts today do have a game in hand over the Canaries after today. I'll call for a fifth straight draw for the hosts in a tough battle today with the leaders. Score it 1-1.
The play: LCFC/Sunderland DRAW +235 for 1.5u
Steam this morning has gone to the home dog, and probably rightfully so. Will the pressure finally start to get to Claudio Raineiri's side, especially considering how stout Sunderland usually plays at this venue in meaningful competitions? The Black Cats are in 18th, four points behind rival Norwich City, and are off four straight draws. At some point, a win or two will be needed, though the hosts today do have a game in hand over the Canaries after today. I'll call for a fifth straight draw for the hosts in a tough battle today with the leaders. Score it 1-1.
The play: LCFC/Sunderland DRAW +235 for 1.5u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Stoke won at Anfield 1-0 in the Capital One Cup semis, though went out on penalties (each visiting team has won 1-0 in the three meetings this season). It was Stoke's first win in 36 games (31 losses) at Anfield, and it speaks volumes to their away form throughout the season. Stoke sit ahead of Liverpool in eighth in the table despite a negative goal differential. That's because Stoke has amassed 23 points on the road in EPL play this season, a far cry from normal and a big reason why they are still hovering with an outside shot at UEFA Cup play next term.
The Reds have this sammich in the middle of a home battle against Dortmund next week, but should get the full 90 from Sturridge, though their captain is a long-term injury casualty. One goal flat was the take here; it's not quite good enough for me but it would be dog or nothing.
Will have thoughts on Tottenham/ManU after Leicester goes final. If the Foxes can win this morning, the pressure will really be ratcheted up on the Spurs, who will suddenly be down 10 points heading into kickoff.
The Reds have this sammich in the middle of a home battle against Dortmund next week, but should get the full 90 from Sturridge, though their captain is a long-term injury casualty. One goal flat was the take here; it's not quite good enough for me but it would be dog or nothing.
Will have thoughts on Tottenham/ManU after Leicester goes final. If the Foxes can win this morning, the pressure will really be ratcheted up on the Spurs, who will suddenly be down 10 points heading into kickoff.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I deserve what I get for betting against my Leicester guys.
Tottenham now 10 back before this one, and will start at least 30 minutes late as the Manchester United buses were caught in London traffic.
ManU with a difficult week ahead; they are four behind City for fourth in the league and a Champions League spot, and they might as well stay in London. They're back there on Wednesday for an FA Cup quarterfinal replay at West Ham.
Tottenham has done a lot of things solidly in the close-to-two years under Mauricio Pochettino. But they've yet to score against Manchester United in three meetings. United has not lost any of the last 14 Premier League games against Spurs at White Hart Lane, drawing six of the last eight. Spurs last home win over United in the league came on the final day of the 2000-01 season.
The Red Devils have lit the lamp only 39 times in their 31 league games this season; it has been since 1989-90 (37) since they had fewer goals than that at this stage of the term.
Look for 0-0 or 1-1. I'll take a stab at both the dog on the handicap and the UN. Ah, hell, DRAW too, F it.
THe plays: Man U +1/2 -105 for 1u, DRAW +250 for 1.3u and UNDER 2.5 -125 for 2u
Tottenham now 10 back before this one, and will start at least 30 minutes late as the Manchester United buses were caught in London traffic.
ManU with a difficult week ahead; they are four behind City for fourth in the league and a Champions League spot, and they might as well stay in London. They're back there on Wednesday for an FA Cup quarterfinal replay at West Ham.
Tottenham has done a lot of things solidly in the close-to-two years under Mauricio Pochettino. But they've yet to score against Manchester United in three meetings. United has not lost any of the last 14 Premier League games against Spurs at White Hart Lane, drawing six of the last eight. Spurs last home win over United in the league came on the final day of the 2000-01 season.
The Red Devils have lit the lamp only 39 times in their 31 league games this season; it has been since 1989-90 (37) since they had fewer goals than that at this stage of the term.
Look for 0-0 or 1-1. I'll take a stab at both the dog on the handicap and the UN. Ah, hell, DRAW too, F it.
THe plays: Man U +1/2 -105 for 1u, DRAW +250 for 1.3u and UNDER 2.5 -125 for 2u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
4-0 and +6.35 in EPL Sat
0-4 and --6.35 in EPL Sun.
Dick Chopper. Total coincidence.
109-98-10 and +34.56 going into CL, FA Cup, EPL today. Nothing ayer.
Today I like Atletico Madrid again but the prices aren't as juicy as I would prefer. Barca is in low form and not fully fit, fatigued since the international break. AM has lost seven straight to them but they are unafraid and knocked out Barca at this stage two seasons back.
The play: Atletico to ADVANCE +285 for 1.5u
Nothing in the other game, contemplated Benfica +1300 to advance and will take a small stab at it for 0.4 units, for shits n grins.
GL!
:shake:
0-4 and --6.35 in EPL Sun.
Dick Chopper. Total coincidence.
109-98-10 and +34.56 going into CL, FA Cup, EPL today. Nothing ayer.
Today I like Atletico Madrid again but the prices aren't as juicy as I would prefer. Barca is in low form and not fully fit, fatigued since the international break. AM has lost seven straight to them but they are unafraid and knocked out Barca at this stage two seasons back.
The play: Atletico to ADVANCE +285 for 1.5u
Nothing in the other game, contemplated Benfica +1300 to advance and will take a small stab at it for 0.4 units, for shits n grins.
GL!
:shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Today's games too difficult for me in the Premiership. The relegation game I leaned Sunderland but did not like enough to play, and could not figure out the Swansea price (luckily).
Kicking myself for not betting in City at Chelsea; the Citizens are back in form and Chelsea seems to have thrown in the towel. Today would have been a good fade.
Onto Sunday:
Leicester City UNDER 2.5 -113 for 2u. Not really much to say; they've had six clean sheets in the last seven, with 19 points picked up in all those games.
Bournemouth +1/2 -150 for 1.4u. At home, with other team off a dramatic rally, scoring 3 goals in a half hour at Anfield to stun Dortmund in the UEFA Cup quarterfinals. The Vitality will be rockin and I expect the hosts to snatch at least a point from this one.
Crystal Palace +1.5 -105 for 2u. Not sure who will be in goal for the Big Arse in the London derby against Palace, but if things don't get shored up on the back line, it won't matter. Palace have now gone three without defeat to get out of any relegation danger and have enough firepower to light the lamp a couple of times. Awful big number for the Gunners to try to get over, even at the Emirates. Dog to a draw or a 1-goal loss. If I do okay in the morning, might try some more dog action, perhaps on the draw.
Kicking myself for not betting in City at Chelsea; the Citizens are back in form and Chelsea seems to have thrown in the towel. Today would have been a good fade.
Onto Sunday:
Leicester City UNDER 2.5 -113 for 2u. Not really much to say; they've had six clean sheets in the last seven, with 19 points picked up in all those games.
Bournemouth +1/2 -150 for 1.4u. At home, with other team off a dramatic rally, scoring 3 goals in a half hour at Anfield to stun Dortmund in the UEFA Cup quarterfinals. The Vitality will be rockin and I expect the hosts to snatch at least a point from this one.
Crystal Palace +1.5 -105 for 2u. Not sure who will be in goal for the Big Arse in the London derby against Palace, but if things don't get shored up on the back line, it won't matter. Palace have now gone three without defeat to get out of any relegation danger and have enough firepower to light the lamp a couple of times. Awful big number for the Gunners to try to get over, even at the Emirates. Dog to a draw or a 1-goal loss. If I do okay in the morning, might try some more dog action, perhaps on the draw.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Win 3.88 with Atletico/Benfica in CL, go 1-2 and lose 1.23 in EPL on Sunday. Now 111-101-10 and +37.21 on the season.
Really like the spot for West Ham but I guess Watford is sending up a B-team over Upton Park judging from the line. The weekend match in the FA Cup is more important for sure, but I can't lay this.
Crystal Palace in its best run of form in several months. With a win and three draws in the last four league matches, the Eagles have already gotten more points from EPL action in April than in January, February and March combined. Yes, it was a promising start to the season and this recent run will almost surely see the south Londoners playing in the top flight again in 2016-17. This line is ridiculous when you consider both teams are in FA Cup action over the weekend. It has the look of a 1-1 or 1-0 game to me.
The plays: Palace +1.5 -125 for 1.6 units and UNDER 2.5 -110 for 1.6 units.
Mercyside derby at Anfield will be interesting. Liverpool made 10 chances to steal a win from me and Bournemouth on the south coast and have two more league matches before meeting Villareal in the UEFA Cup semis. Everton made it to the semis of the League Cup and are back in the semis again in the FA Cup at Wembley against Man U on Saturday. The Toffees have just three points from their last six games in EPL play and the seat is getting hotter for coach Roberto Martinez. These two played to a draw at Goodison in October and six of the previous seven league games between these two have ended in draws. Sometimes, you just don't have to overthink it.
The play: Everton/Liverpool DRAW +351 for 2u
Really like the spot for West Ham but I guess Watford is sending up a B-team over Upton Park judging from the line. The weekend match in the FA Cup is more important for sure, but I can't lay this.
Crystal Palace in its best run of form in several months. With a win and three draws in the last four league matches, the Eagles have already gotten more points from EPL action in April than in January, February and March combined. Yes, it was a promising start to the season and this recent run will almost surely see the south Londoners playing in the top flight again in 2016-17. This line is ridiculous when you consider both teams are in FA Cup action over the weekend. It has the look of a 1-1 or 1-0 game to me.
The plays: Palace +1.5 -125 for 1.6 units and UNDER 2.5 -110 for 1.6 units.
Mercyside derby at Anfield will be interesting. Liverpool made 10 chances to steal a win from me and Bournemouth on the south coast and have two more league matches before meeting Villareal in the UEFA Cup semis. Everton made it to the semis of the League Cup and are back in the semis again in the FA Cup at Wembley against Man U on Saturday. The Toffees have just three points from their last six games in EPL play and the seat is getting hotter for coach Roberto Martinez. These two played to a draw at Goodison in October and six of the previous seven league games between these two have ended in draws. Sometimes, you just don't have to overthink it.
The play: Everton/Liverpool DRAW +351 for 2u
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Hope you get that DRAW on EVER. I took +1. GL mate
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
1-2 and minus 2.4 the other day, now 112-103-10 and up 34.81 on the season.
No Ronaldo tonight for Real Madrid, which has caused the line to move 1/4 and some change to Man City. Hart and Navas are two of the more solid keepers you'll find, Kompany back for City, which will try not concede at home for the third straight CL match. Real will pierce and prod but won't be totally exposed as the Citizens are as healthy now as they've been all season. Both teams in good form. It looks like 0-0 or 1-1 to me.
The plays: DRAW +237 for 1.5u
UNDER 2.5 -108 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
No Ronaldo tonight for Real Madrid, which has caused the line to move 1/4 and some change to Man City. Hart and Navas are two of the more solid keepers you'll find, Kompany back for City, which will try not concede at home for the third straight CL match. Real will pierce and prod but won't be totally exposed as the Citizens are as healthy now as they've been all season. Both teams in good form. It looks like 0-0 or 1-1 to me.
The plays: DRAW +237 for 1.5u
UNDER 2.5 -108 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
:beer4:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
2-0 and +5.55 last out. Now after a month off, time to go after it again. Now 114-103-10 and up 40.36 on the season.
Heading out to the National Stadium tonight. Ticos in a good revenge spot after losing to Venezuela 1-0 in a friendly earlier this year that was mostly a Tico B-team and officiated by guys who I wouldn't hire to work my 8-year old niece's games.
No Navas, as he has Champions League duties tomorrow as the best goaltender in the world behind Neuer, but the Ticos are better across the board and fielding an A team.
This should be a bludgeoning of the highest order. Easy lay. Would bet the same up to -170.
The play: Costa Rica -154 for 3.5u
Heading out to the National Stadium tonight. Ticos in a good revenge spot after losing to Venezuela 1-0 in a friendly earlier this year that was mostly a Tico B-team and officiated by guys who I wouldn't hire to work my 8-year old niece's games.
No Navas, as he has Champions League duties tomorrow as the best goaltender in the world behind Neuer, but the Ticos are better across the board and fielding an A team.
This should be a bludgeoning of the highest order. Easy lay. Would bet the same up to -170.
The play: Costa Rica -154 for 3.5u
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Can't see how Chile can lay this to the Rastas. Jamaica ran second in the Gold Cup last year AFTER losing three games 1-0 in Chile during the Copa America. Line should be about 1.625 or so tops. This is an insult to them.
The play: Jamaica +2.25 -110 for 1.7 units.
I want to bet T&T against Uruguay. I am very anti them in this cycle. Good read on ESPNFC from a couple of weeks ago about the coach crying. I bet the Beaners pick +120 and +210 ML on the 3-way against them in the first game for 2u each before the Copa del Ray Final when Suarez got injured. Godin is still in the Champions League and the Uruguay schedule is downright brutal. Four straight summers of tournament competition will finally take its toll on these guys; they outclass T&T but the line is ridiculous tonight as well.
In fact...
The play: T&T +2.5 -103 for 1.3 units
good night and good luck!
:shake:
The play: Jamaica +2.25 -110 for 1.7 units.
I want to bet T&T against Uruguay. I am very anti them in this cycle. Good read on ESPNFC from a couple of weeks ago about the coach crying. I bet the Beaners pick +120 and +210 ML on the 3-way against them in the first game for 2u each before the Copa del Ray Final when Suarez got injured. Godin is still in the Champions League and the Uruguay schedule is downright brutal. Four straight summers of tournament competition will finally take its toll on these guys; they outclass T&T but the line is ridiculous tonight as well.
In fact...
The play: T&T +2.5 -103 for 1.3 units
good night and good luck!
:shake:
