Detroit @ Green Bay
Tight end-strapped fantasy owners should look no further than
Tony Scheffler in Week 14. With
Ryan Broyles and
Titus Young both on injured reserve, Scheffler will be Detroit's No. 3 receiver at Green Bay, operating as a full-time wideout along with
Calvin Johnson and
Mike Thomas. He'll play extensively in the slot, matching up with linebackers and undrafted rookie S
M.D. Jennings. Scheffler will also run a high volume of pass routes because Green Bay is so pass rush-deficient without OLB
Clay Matthews (hamstring). In a potential shootout, Scheffler is a sneaky candidate to lead Detroit in receptions. ... Finally hitting a stride since midseason,
Matthew Stafford has completed 159-of-270 passes for 1,986 yards (7.36 YPA), and an 11:5 TD-to-INT ratio with a 12th touchdown on a scramble over his last six games. Even without Broyles and Young, the Lions field a receiver corps capable of giving Green Bay's No. 17 pass defense matchup issues all across the formation. Stafford is the No. 8 fantasy quarterback and a locked-and-loaded QB1 in this game. ... Megatron needs to average 105.1 yards per game over the final month to break
Jerry Rice's single-season yardage record (1,848) for a wide receiver. Johnson is averaging 158 since the end of October. ... Thomas is a desperation WR3 option in Week 14. Even with an increasing role, the underachieving former Jaguar has caught just three passes for 16 yards over the past two games.
Green Bay has allowed the seventh fewest tight-end fantasy points and held
Brandon Pettigrew to four catches for 22 yards in these teams' mid-November meeting. I prefer Scheffler to Pettigrew if you're deciding between the two for Sunday night. ... Although
Joique Bell (7-81, 3-21) outscored
Mikel Leshoure (21-57-1, 2-16) in terms of Week 13 yardage, there is no changing of the guard in Detroit's backfield. The Lions' coaching staff has identified Leshoure as its primary, "sustainer" back who will continue to dominate early-down carries. Even if OC Scott Linehan’s pledge to increase his change-of-pace opportunities comes to fruition, Bell will remain a role player barring injury to Leshoure. Ultimately, Bell has received double-digit touches in just one of Detroit's last four games. Leshoure has averaged 18 touches per week over that same span, and is the lone Lions back worth a fantasy start against the Packers' No. 15 run defense.
Aaron Rodgers has owned the Lions in his career. Rodgers' statistics in the seven games he's played start to finish against Detroit: 155-of-222 (69.8 percent) for 2,066 yards (9.31 YPA), and an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The Lions rank an unimposing 18th against the pass, so expect Rodgers to bust loose from his recent two-game mini-funk on Sunday Night Football. ... Rodgers' updated target distribution since Green Bay's Week 10 bye:
Randall Cobb 25,
Jermichael Finley 15,
Jordy Nelson 10,
Greg Jennings 8,
John Kuhn 7,
Alex Green and
James Jones 6,
James Starks 4,
Donald Driver 1. ... Forget easing Jennings back from in-season groin surgery. The Packers need him too much. Nelson re-strained his hamstring in the first quarter of last week's win over the Vikings, so Jennings was thrust into an every-down role and led the Packers in targets (8). Fantasy owners who hung onto Jennings through the tough times may emerge looking awfully savvy with a top 15-20 receiver throughout the fantasy playoffs. ... Jones actually led all Green Bay receivers in Week 13 snaps played (83-of-84). Head scratchingly, he was targeted just twice. Jones flashed fantasy reliability when both Jennings and Nelson were hurt earlier in the season, but he'll be a weekly headache going forward. It's been the case for Jones for most of his career. He still offers a high ceiling and scoring potential matching up with a leaky Lions pass defense.
Finley has come on some, topping 50 yards in three straight games and efficiently securing 12-of-15 targets over that span for 177 yards and a touchdown. It's been inefficiency that historically discourages Rodgers from treating Finley as a featured part of Green Bay's passing attack, so perhaps he's turning a corner. Finley makes sense as a Sunday night matchup play because he posted a 3-66-1 line in these teams' Week 11 meeting, and the Lions have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. ... Cobb's production has sagged along with Rodgers' the past two weeks, but Jennings' return should lock Cobb back into the slot-receiver role he's comfortable with after being shuffled around the formation in Weeks 12-13. "Randall's going to stay in the slot I'd assume," Rodgers said this week, "and Greg will be outside for the most part." Cobb is the one Packers player the Lions are least likely to contain on Sunday night. Shake off the two-game slowdown and start Cobb as a borderline WR1. ... Starks' multi-week knee injury leaves Green as the Packers' probable lead back. It just doesn't make him a fantasy starter. Green Bay never would have turned to Starks had Green capitalized on his midseason opportunity to be the feature runner, and a hot-hand committee is likely with Kuhn and newly re-signed
Ryan Grant in the mix. The Packers' backfield is a fantasy football rattrap. Don't expect that to suddenly change.
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24