P2W 5/6/17 Derby Day

:cheers3:

Going with the those with equipment changes huh? Always Dreaming was becoming my pick before all the talk of how he has been in the mornings and now the changing of the reins, so I will wait to see what type of odds we can get on him, I was hoping for about 7-1 come post time with that one. As I started writing this I thought Practical Joke would be adding blinkers but saw that now he will not be running with blinkers, so don't know what to make of that. Distance limitations my main concern with him though, still don't know how he doesn't get past Irap in the Blue Grass, although that was one weird race. I've liked J boys Echo since his Gotham win and will look for him to bounce back off his Blue Grass performance which I don't think him or McCracken were to cranked up for.

Early weather reports seem to be indicating rain Friday and Saturday which would really stink if they can't keep the turf races on. Really looking forward to digging in handicapping the card and hopefully finding a few winners because I think we see some nice payouts throughout the day.
 
:cheers3:

4 criteria:

1) Best Bris Speed Number of 100 or more
2) Best Bris Class Rating of 121 or more
3) Sub 38 final 3 furlongs in their final prep
4) 0 or 1 strike in Jon White's system

The following horses fit 4 for 4:

Classic Empire
Gunnevera
Hence
Thunder Snow is 3 for 3 in class, final fractions and the strike system, no speed numbers available (Thorograph number is so-so).

3 out of 4
Always Dreaming (2 strikes)
Irap (slow final fractions)
J Boys Echo (slow final fractions)

If the track is good to fast, I would expect the winner to come from this pile and at least 3 of top 4 finishers.

Sneaky late runners to maybe catch a piece: Girvin, McCracken and Lookin at Lee.

Moving up in slop: Irish War Cry.
 
1 Lookin at Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie) 20-1
2 Thunder Snow (Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon) 20-1
3 Fast and Accurate (Mike Maker/Channing Hill) 50-1
4 Untrapped (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
5 Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 5-1
6 State of Honor (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano) 30-1
7 Girvin (Joe Sharp/Mike Smith) 15-1
8 Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux 15-1
9 Irap (Doug O'Neill/Mario Guttierez) 20-1
10 Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Javier Castellano) 15-1
11 Battle of Midway (Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavian Prat) 30-1
12 Sonneteer (Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux) 50-1
13 J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) 20-1
14 Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 4-1
15 McCraken (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 5-1
16 Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1
17 Irish War Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh) 6-1
18 Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza) 15-1
19 Practical Joke (Chad Brown/Joel Rosario) 20-1
20 Patch (Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1
AE/21. Royal Mo (John Shirreffs/Gary Stevens) 20-1
AE/22. Master Plan (Todd Pletcher/) 50-1
 
Not a good draw for Thunder Snow but other than that pretty fair for everyone. Lookin at Lee draws the rail but he figured to be 19th or 20th at the first call anyway. Will be interesting to see if Gormley is sent early or taken back. Good draw for Irap, between plodders Hence and Gunnevera. Good draw for Classic Empire at the end of the main gate.
 
If not her, Salty has a chance
[video=youtube_share;tOlfY_DaXcI]https://youtu.be/tOlfY_DaXcI[/video]
 
Thought Abel Tasman got a horrible trip by Smith, must've thought he was on Zenyatta. Eight lengths back at the start, middle move, then about 8 wide around the turn. +35 on Trakus vs the winner. I think Smith has him a little more in the mix on Friday. Also wonder if PW will bounce a bit off that huge figure.
 
Agreed.. horrible trip given by Smith, just raced for place once he knew winner is long gone. I think Paradise Woods is the best but if she hooks up with Miss Sky Warrior or someone else and isnt given the lone lead like at Santa Anita then Abel Tasman would be my backup to pickup the pieces.
 
I can't make heads or tails of this Woodford Reserve....feels like World Approval could steal this on the front end if the turf has some give to it, like he did in the United Nations. Everyone else is in good form, only Flatlined finished more than a length out in his last start. And only Canthelpbelieving is coming off a winter layoff, and he might be the best horse in the field. Really tough line up.
 
World Approval looks like lone speed and I also like outside horse in there (Mott).....done betting this pk3 bc of Little Mike beating me when I had prices in Oaks and Derby and didn't cash.
 
I don't see World Approval getting away out front and setting slow fractions, think Oscar Nominated and Beach Patrol are just as fast early and at the least will be pushing World Approval early, think we see a fairly contested early pace, World Approval has gotten out to early leads at 10 to 12 furlongs but not so much at 9F. I think #9, 11 and 12 all have a shot at a price.
 
Marty McGee , Churchill Downs , 2017-05-05 - DRF LivePosted : 29 mins ago
[h=2]ON the CD turf despite weather; updated SCR[/h]Despite the miserable conditions (steady rain, chilly temps), all turf races on the 13-race Kentucky Oaks card remain ON the turf, as of 8:45 ET. Wouldn't think R13 will stay on if it continues to rain, as is the widespread prediction, but we'll deal with that as it comes. So yes, if you're handicapping the early mutli-race wagers, the 4th race is ON, with the MTO's already having been scratched.
There are no scratches at this time from the 143rd Kentucky Oaks (R11), so in all probability, SUMMER LUCK will be scratched as the lone AE from the race. Scratch time is 9 ET, which also is when the final scratches will be announced for the Kentucky Derby. As of now, there are no known defections from the Derby, meaning ROYAL MO and MASTER PLAN will be scratched ... awaiting official confirmation there.
Foremost among the scratches on the Oaks undercard is FINEST CITY from the G1 La Troienne (R5). The '16 filly-mare sprint champ goes instead tomorrow in the G1 Humana Distaff.
The main track is sloppy/sealed, and the turf is "good," although surely that will be downgraded later today to yielding or maybe even soft.
Here are the updated scratches for today: R1-(2); R3-(7, 8); R4-(1A, 11); R5-(8); R6-(7); R7-(5); R9-(all AEs); R12-(2, 6, 10); R13-(1A, 13).

 
Lloyd Braun said:
I don't see World Approval getting away out front and setting slow fractions, think Oscar Nominated and Beach Patrol are just as fast early and at the least will be pushing World Approval early, think we see a fairly contested early pace, World Approval has gotten out to early leads at 10 to 12 furlongs but not so much at 9F. I think #9, 11 and 12 all have a shot at a price.
Click to expand...
Maker
Horse definitely figures
 
Oaks:
I might down grade #4 chances bc of track condition and have not been a fan of #7 bc of facing weaker competition but moves up on off track and favorable running style as well

Opinions?
 
Race 6 should be an interesting one, so far speed has ruled but should get a contested pace here with #1,8 and 9 all wanting the lead. #9 is probably best but long layoff and previosuly mentioned contested pace makes him vulnerable. Like #4 best here to sit off leaders and roll down the stretch.
 
Javier showing why he is best jockey in the business, gets a horse that was never better than 4th at first call out on the lead on a speed favoring track and holds on for the win
 
Race 9: #7 seems the one to beat, should have early speed but is lightly raced and last was against cheaper horses. Think #6 and 10 are both live at good prices. Hernandez has been aggressive when he has ridden this one who add blinkers in second off the layoff and a bad trip in last, should be fitter for this one and forwardly placed. #10 has improved since being claimed back in January and another that should be at or near the front of the field.
 
5 was first one I've seen come from a ways back in that slop, and of course rode the rail to victory...30-1 bomb at that
 
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