Derby Day thoughts
Race 1: #4 ran well in last, her first try on dirt, worked with Daddy's Little Darling on even terms, slight cutback adds to appeal. #3 first time starter for Lynch who can have them ready, nice steady work pattern might have this one fit enough to best an otherwise uninspiring field. #6 will probably the favorite, and I'm not sure if the switch back to dirt us the right one or not, wired a field but got dq'd out if win 3 back in an off the turf race and then ran well twice on turf, will try to beat for the win but include underneath in exacta and tri along #2. Plays: Ex 3,4/2,3,4,6 Tri 3,4/2,3,4,6/2,3,4,6. DD 2,4/2,3,7
Race 2: #7 seems the one to beat for Casse, just missed in a state bred stakes down in Tampa off the layoff, a couple of nice works since then and have to think a move forward off that effort which is likely probably wins this. A couple of others I like at a price though #3 can throw out last effort on turf and 3 back when overmatched in Grade 2 Risen Star. 2 back was 4 wide and then tired in the lane. So can make some excuse for last 3, the 2 before that is a nice maiden win and a less than a length 2nd to Hence who may be the wise guy horse in the Derby over a sloppy track. That's a live long shot to me at 15-1 ML. #2 tries winners for the first time but has improving and has the tactical speed for Rosario to place him where he wants.
rayer
