P2W 5/6/17 Derby Day

Bet anything but 2 or 4. That's what I"m on.
I have brandonlangitis with a light case of nocappothis.
 
CPA-hole said:
And the way the track is, not going to dry out, Tapwrit has to be moved up. I'm a pedigree nerd, and he is bred for it top and bottom. Broodmare sire is the same sire of Limousine Liberal, who just aired at 13-1
Click to expand...
Great stuff
 
I think Always Dreaming is the best horse, but worried he won't relax enough to get there.
 
Keying Hence, J Boys Echo, McCracken and Irish War Cry in exactas and trifectas with Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Tapwrit, Practical Joke underneath
 
CPA-hole said:
I think Always Dreaming is the best horse, but worried he won't relax enough to get there.
Click to expand...
He
might be, but agree with the relaxing, reports all week are how keyed up he was, had to switch exercise rider and reigns, might see a Palace Malice repeat
 
Lloyd Braun said:
He
might be, but agree with the relaxing, reports all week are how keyed up he was, had to switch exercise rider and reigns, might see a Palace Malice repeat
Click to expand...
Exactly. I have him on top with 6 horses in the tri. And my other 2 tickets I have don't have him on it. Feast or famine in my eyes.
 
Always had vodka martinis , exploring the original gin. Interesting.
Be glad when I get the recipe the way I want it so I can go back to scotch.
 
I don't like to dissuade guys off horses, always depends on price and how much you are using them but Practical Joke cannot get 1 1/4. Hes a one-move horse that hangs and will be fanned super wide. But at 30-1 if its a token bet its okay.
 
Other three had their merits. At least we can go back to betting against TAP next year.
 
I need to trust my eyes better., I knew he was a giant the way he raced in the allowance and Florida Derby and ended up spreading too deep in daily double. I wouldnt have been close to underneath horses. Liked Lookin at Lee deserved a shot until he drew post 1.. Huge tri.
 
I had #2 Thunder Snow in all tickets, what a fuckin joke. Thought it was a rodeo
 
Harder to do this year because of the mud, but it's always good to look at this race again and again to find value in the Preakness. Oxbow comes to mind. Made a big middle move in Derby. Went unnoticed in the Preakness and won at a good price. This year you have to decipher if horses good or bad races was because of the mud.

I thought Practical Joke ran a really deceptively good race. He was really full of himself early. Was a handful trying to run off. Ran down into the rail and ran really even after that. I don't think many of us thought he'd get 1 & 1/4.

Obviously Classic Empire didn't get the best of trips. But he seems to be the consensus had a horrible trip on social media horse.

Thought Always Dreaming was giant. Chased a really fast pace, got pressured from IWC, and drew off. They really weren't gaining at the end. Looks like it will take a giant effort to beat him in Baltimore.

It was also hard to tell from the switching camera angles if anyone else had much trouble. What did you guys see and thoughts on the race?
 
If Pletcher can get him in the gate (which is not an automatic) Always Dreaming will be very tough to beat. His style works well at the Preakness. Classic Empire probably only horse out of Preakness I would consider.
 
Sounds like Always Dreaming came out of the race in good order. Will ship to Baltimore Monday probably.

Looking at Lee sounds like he will go.

Classic Empire sustained a few superficial cuts but sounds like a probable for the Preakness.

McCracken, Gormley, Practical Jo will not be going to the Preakness. McCracken sustained a puncture wound to his left hind back leg and will miss some time.

Royal Mo and Conquest Mo Money who didn't run in the Derby are both headed for the Preakness, although CMM looked awful in his most recent work at Prarie Meadows.
 
Irish War Cry off tc trail, training towards Haskell
Practical Joke will be cutting back in distance (Woody Stephens?)
Girvin is off tc trail
 
Kinda surprised Chad Brown was quick to cut back Practical Joke in distance. I thought he ran a credible race and would be even more effective at 1 & 3/16
 
Was at beautiful Belmont yesterday and saw Connect romp over Mohayman to set himself up nicely for the Met Mile.
 
Post mortem: I guess the plus for Battle of Midway was the strong pace he attended in the SA Derby and the fact he still held on for a solid 2nd. Comparing KY Derby and SA Derby fractions:

1/2m: 46&2 and 46&2
3/4m: 1:11 and 1:10&4
1m: 1:37&1 and 1:37&2

So the splits into the last 1/4m were very comparable to what Battle of Midway had already shown he could do. Also needed to keep in mind how inexperienced Battle of Midway was/is, with the Derby being only his fifth start. He had room to improve. As everyone was staggering home to a 26+ final quarter BoM was able to stay on and cash. Will have to adjust my thinking a little next time out for a special situation like that since he fit none of my metrics.

Still would've needed to see that the pace was not going to be too hot (sub 46) and with the sloppy track I thought we were in for a cooker. Also I figured if we we're going to see 3 E/P types in the top 4 that Irish War Cry would've been my first choice as #3 and Irap my next choice. Battle of Midway was no better than my fifth choice of the early/presser types.

Classic Empire got shuffled back too far in the 1st half mile. Instead of 13th I would've expected him to be closer to where Practical Joke was around 7th. The difference between being outside of Irish War Cry's Bayern-like move at the break vs. getting caught up in it.

For a second there in the stretch I thought Lookin at Lee was going to "oh shit" everyone but Johnny V kept Always Dreaming to the task at hand.
 
[TABLE="class: ckeditor-styled-table"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="colspan: 4, align: center"]PREAKNESS CONTENDERS[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="border-top: none; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; border-image: initial;">[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]Last Race/Finish[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Always Dreaming [/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]John Velazquez[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby, 1st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Classic Empire[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]Julien Leparoux[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby, 4th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cloud Computing [/TD]
[TD]Chad Brown[/TD]
[TD]undecided[/TD]
[TD]Wood Memorial, 3rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Conquest Mo Money[/TD]
[TD]Miguel Hernandez[/TD]
[TD]Jorge Carreno[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas Derby, 2nd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gunnevera [/TD]
[TD]Antonio Sano[/TD]
[TD]Mike Smith[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby, 7th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hence[/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD]
[TD]Florent Geroux[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby, 11th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lookin At Lee [/TD]
[TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD]
[TD]Corey Lanerie[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky Derby, 2nd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Multiplier [/TD]
[TD]Brendan Walsh[/TD]
[TD]James Graham[/TD]
[TD]Illinois Derby, 1st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Royal Mo[/TD]
[TD]John Shiffeffs[/TD]
[TD]Gary Stevens[/TD]
[TD]Santa Anita Derby, 3rd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Senior Investment[/TD]
[TD]Kenny McPeek[/TD]
[TD]Channing Hill[/TD]
[TD]Lexington Stakes, 1st[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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