Alright, took Tuesday off. Considered the Bulls and should have played them. I watched the Knicks-Detroit game twice late last night and had myself convinced but never pulled the trigger.
First, this is the way I cap this card and many cards this time of year. Lets eliminate the games which I have ZERO interest in:
Philadelphia @ Boston
Dallas @ Minnesota
You can make your point for Minnesota due to Dallas kinda playing these like exhibitions but the fact is Minny has no interest either. I am not gonna 'hope' that Minny plays well and Dallas struggles w/o key members. Boston and Philly is same kinda game. You can't predict what these teams are going to do.
Now, the next phase is talking about the chalk games:
Sacramento @ San Antonio
Seattle @ Phoenix
Believe it or not(and I will talk about this more later in the thread) the Spurs still have an outside chance at the two seed out west. They know they can win @ Phoenix but HCA is still reassuring to any team. These games are meaningful to both Phoenix and San Antonio. Their opponents are merely playing out the string. The question becomes back-dorr covers and what-not. Tonight, in the exact same type of affair the Bulls took care of New York. Its your choice to figure out if either or both the Suns/Spurs can do that.
Now, I;ll look at the games where injuries may confuse us:
Washington @ Miami
Denver @ Utah
All four of these teams need to win. The problem is injuries as 3 of the 4(sans Nuggets) have injuries or sit-outs right now of relevence. I won;t go near these games as you have two teams that should care going against each other in both games.
Now, that leaves three games. Out of those 6 teams, three are in must win situations:
Orlando @ Detroit
Indiana @ Milwaukee
Houston @ Portland
Indiana and Houston could be grouped in the 'injury' category but on the same token they are playing tanking teams. Detroit will win the one seed. Its just a matter of when. I do think they would rather get it over now instead of facing a surging/hungry Raptor team twice. Either way it will happen at some point. Orlando is the only side in this game. They are fighting for their lives. Now, Orlando matches up horribly with the Stons. Thats a problem. Haven't seen a line yet. Houston is in a dogfight with Utah for HCA in round one. This is the game I am eyeing for tomorrow most. The Pacers somehow are still within shouting distance. They should be like ORL and own the glass. Once again I want to see the injury report. My problem with Indiana is how bad they have been. I don;t think they have a total urgency for the playoffs.
So, there ya go. Thats how I break the card down. Plays, if any, will have to wait till tomorrow as more information becomes available.
Lets take a look at the playoff picture. Many interesting things are happening and we already started some good conversation in Handyland.
I mentioned that Phoenix is no lock for the 2nd seed. They have four games left after the Seattle game tomorrow. Those four are ALL against teams that most likely will have to win( LAL,@Utah,@Hou and LAC). They are gonna get those teams best efforts. Meanwhile, the Spurs will also have four games left after tomorrow(Sac, @Minny, @Dallas, @Memphis and Denver). Only perhaps Denver to close the season will 'need' to win. Very interesting.
New Jersey is basically in. Its gonna be their fight for staying at 7 spot or possibly garnering the 6th seed which could be like a domino effect. I believe they can catch the Wizards for 6th. If they do, they will alter other plans as well. New Jersey hosts the Bulls, goes to Cleveland and hosts Indiana here in the last week of the season.
The Cleveland-New Jersey game will determine a lot as well. New Jersey wins that and they prolly get to the 6th seed. That will mean they are right there and will be playing their regular rotation up to the end of the season. They lose their and then in fact Orlando with what looks like a 4-1 finish to me could sneak up there. Washington, with only one gimme could still wind up as an 8 seed.
Its going to be an interesting finish to the season...there are some teams heading into playoffs with momentum and others who are not..
Teams such as Utah, Washington and the LA lakers are playoff bound but whats to get excited about. Its been miserable for all three as of late and sometimes its hard to just garner 'quick' momentum. Washington reminds me of the 200 Detroit Pistons. They played Miami in round one as a 7 seed. G Hill broke his ankle and the series was soo anticlimatic. There was nothing to be excited about. Utah has lost all momentum and is playing terrible. Houston will be a HUGE series bet for me. Maybe my only one of the first round. The Lakers have the star-power and a rematch of last year is possible. Thats about the only thing to look forward to.
Meanwhile, the Spurs, Bulls and Raptors are surging. The Raptors if they don;t get Washington will be tested with their youth but its nice to see them in. The Spurs are like clockwork. We'll see if their health holds up and if they can outfoxz the Mavs this time. The Bulls will learn what a liabilty Ben is but right now its shaping up for them to either lose in 1st round to Miami or have a clear path to Conference Finals.
First, this is the way I cap this card and many cards this time of year. Lets eliminate the games which I have ZERO interest in:
Philadelphia @ Boston
Dallas @ Minnesota
You can make your point for Minnesota due to Dallas kinda playing these like exhibitions but the fact is Minny has no interest either. I am not gonna 'hope' that Minny plays well and Dallas struggles w/o key members. Boston and Philly is same kinda game. You can't predict what these teams are going to do.
Now, the next phase is talking about the chalk games:
Sacramento @ San Antonio
Seattle @ Phoenix
Believe it or not(and I will talk about this more later in the thread) the Spurs still have an outside chance at the two seed out west. They know they can win @ Phoenix but HCA is still reassuring to any team. These games are meaningful to both Phoenix and San Antonio. Their opponents are merely playing out the string. The question becomes back-dorr covers and what-not. Tonight, in the exact same type of affair the Bulls took care of New York. Its your choice to figure out if either or both the Suns/Spurs can do that.
Now, I;ll look at the games where injuries may confuse us:
Washington @ Miami
Denver @ Utah
All four of these teams need to win. The problem is injuries as 3 of the 4(sans Nuggets) have injuries or sit-outs right now of relevence. I won;t go near these games as you have two teams that should care going against each other in both games.
Now, that leaves three games. Out of those 6 teams, three are in must win situations:
Orlando @ Detroit
Indiana @ Milwaukee
Houston @ Portland
Indiana and Houston could be grouped in the 'injury' category but on the same token they are playing tanking teams. Detroit will win the one seed. Its just a matter of when. I do think they would rather get it over now instead of facing a surging/hungry Raptor team twice. Either way it will happen at some point. Orlando is the only side in this game. They are fighting for their lives. Now, Orlando matches up horribly with the Stons. Thats a problem. Haven't seen a line yet. Houston is in a dogfight with Utah for HCA in round one. This is the game I am eyeing for tomorrow most. The Pacers somehow are still within shouting distance. They should be like ORL and own the glass. Once again I want to see the injury report. My problem with Indiana is how bad they have been. I don;t think they have a total urgency for the playoffs.
So, there ya go. Thats how I break the card down. Plays, if any, will have to wait till tomorrow as more information becomes available.
Lets take a look at the playoff picture. Many interesting things are happening and we already started some good conversation in Handyland.
I mentioned that Phoenix is no lock for the 2nd seed. They have four games left after the Seattle game tomorrow. Those four are ALL against teams that most likely will have to win( LAL,@Utah,@Hou and LAC). They are gonna get those teams best efforts. Meanwhile, the Spurs will also have four games left after tomorrow(Sac, @Minny, @Dallas, @Memphis and Denver). Only perhaps Denver to close the season will 'need' to win. Very interesting.
New Jersey is basically in. Its gonna be their fight for staying at 7 spot or possibly garnering the 6th seed which could be like a domino effect. I believe they can catch the Wizards for 6th. If they do, they will alter other plans as well. New Jersey hosts the Bulls, goes to Cleveland and hosts Indiana here in the last week of the season.
The Cleveland-New Jersey game will determine a lot as well. New Jersey wins that and they prolly get to the 6th seed. That will mean they are right there and will be playing their regular rotation up to the end of the season. They lose their and then in fact Orlando with what looks like a 4-1 finish to me could sneak up there. Washington, with only one gimme could still wind up as an 8 seed.
Its going to be an interesting finish to the season...there are some teams heading into playoffs with momentum and others who are not..
Teams such as Utah, Washington and the LA lakers are playoff bound but whats to get excited about. Its been miserable for all three as of late and sometimes its hard to just garner 'quick' momentum. Washington reminds me of the 200 Detroit Pistons. They played Miami in round one as a 7 seed. G Hill broke his ankle and the series was soo anticlimatic. There was nothing to be excited about. Utah has lost all momentum and is playing terrible. Houston will be a HUGE series bet for me. Maybe my only one of the first round. The Lakers have the star-power and a rematch of last year is possible. Thats about the only thing to look forward to.
Meanwhile, the Spurs, Bulls and Raptors are surging. The Raptors if they don;t get Washington will be tested with their youth but its nice to see them in. The Spurs are like clockwork. We'll see if their health holds up and if they can outfoxz the Mavs this time. The Bulls will learn what a liabilty Ben is but right now its shaping up for them to either lose in 1st round to Miami or have a clear path to Conference Finals.
It's amazing how much better the Rockets play on the road.
