$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Highest single wager bet yet was 8.8 Units to win 8
NHL - 3 Game Road Trip, fade system
- Thread starter charvik
- Start date
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
Very nice... I will definitely check that out for next year, and quite possibly run some numbers this offseason to verify for the last 3 or 4 seasons...
I think your way would be a great addition... and with some tweaking (avoid hot teams) I might be able to up my unit-size and still be relatively safe.:cheers:
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
One more thing. I ran the system using a different approach. Play the away team with a +1 1/2 Alternative Puck Line. So far it is a whopping 145-0 with 3 series pending and 1 starting tonight. I had to go 4 deep in this one, but shouldn't matter, since it hasn't lost. Active teams still out there are:
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 4/5)
Play Carolina +1 1/2 (leg 2/3)
Play LA Kings +1 1/2 (leg 2/4) Win
Play Tampa +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Win
Keep in mind this is not the same system as Charvik's
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 4/5)
Play Carolina +1 1/2 (leg 2/3)
Play LA Kings +1 1/2 (leg 2/4) Win
Play Tampa +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Win
Keep in mind this is not the same system as Charvik's
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Gonna try tonight:
Tampa + 1 1/2 (leg 1/3) 3.5 Units to win 1.0 Unit
Tampa + 1 1/2 (leg 1/3) 3.5 Units to win 1.0 Unit
twoface
Pretty much a regular
Good luck on the sabres charvik! 1-1 right now..hope sabres pick it up.
Hey $$$inmywallet...how does the puckline system chase work? Do you also play on teams on a 3 game road trip as well?
Sometimes the NHL is so crazy and hard to cap that I seriously think that systems like these are the only way to consistently show a profit.
BOL you guys!
Hey $$$inmywallet...how does the puckline system chase work? Do you also play on teams on a 3 game road trip as well?
Sometimes the NHL is so crazy and hard to cap that I seriously think that systems like these are the only way to consistently show a profit.
BOL you guys!
hey can u explain this system in lame man terms, i not understanding yuor logic.
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
twoface -
Basically, instead of playing the home team against a team on a 3+ road game trip, you would play the road team with a +1 1/2 PuckLine.
mofak7 -
Let's say that you have the Dallas Stars getting ready to go on the road and play Nashville, Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay before returning home. Normally in Charvik's system, you would say that Dallas will lose one of those games and you will net a profit. In the other system that I researched today, you would basically say that Dallas will win one game out of those 4 games during the road trip with a +1 1/2 advantage. When they win one, you ignore the rest of the games on the road trip. So if they lose to Nashville 2-4 and you risk 3 units to win 1 unit, then you would have to win 4 units to get your 3 units you lost plus the 1 unit you wanted to win in the series.
Hope this helps guys.
Basically, instead of playing the home team against a team on a 3+ road game trip, you would play the road team with a +1 1/2 PuckLine.
mofak7 -
Let's say that you have the Dallas Stars getting ready to go on the road and play Nashville, Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay before returning home. Normally in Charvik's system, you would say that Dallas will lose one of those games and you will net a profit. In the other system that I researched today, you would basically say that Dallas will win one game out of those 4 games during the road trip with a +1 1/2 advantage. When they win one, you ignore the rest of the games on the road trip. So if they lose to Nashville 2-4 and you risk 3 units to win 1 unit, then you would have to win 4 units to get your 3 units you lost plus the 1 unit you wanted to win in the series.
Hope this helps guys.
twoface
Pretty much a regular
oooh..ok. So you would play the +1.5 in all the games in that road trip right?
But this will vary between teams won't it? For example, TB on this current trip, yesterday you would've played them +1.5 but today against the oilers, you would've played the +1.5 again? But today, the +1.5 is for the oilers. I don't know, it just seems like there is a lot of variance since it is not a consistent chase specifically for one team.
However, I suppose the big picture would be "chase a 1 goal game on the road trip".
Do have any results from last year?
:shake:
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
twoface-
Not exactly. Tampa Bay is a tricky team for this system, since they are in the middle of a 6 game road trip. What I do for teams in a 6+ game road trip is I divide it up into two trips. Charvik does it a little different to where if Tampa would lose the first game, he sets up a Sub-Series and basically turns into a 5+ game road trip and so on.
In this new system I worked on, Tampa ended it's first 3 games, so that is why I started a new one last night. They began another 3 games. Also, in Hockey, there is usually 3 different ways to be a team, the Puck Line, which takes the favorite and applies -1 1/2 with no juice, the ML and the Alternative Puck Line which the favorite gets +1 1/2 with a lot of juice. What you are looking for in my system is to always take the road team if on a 3+ game series with the +1 1/2 goal. If your book doesn't allow the favorite to get this, then obviously this system won't work. Betcris.com comes out with this option around 3 hrs before the first games puck drops.
Hope this helps. Also, if you want more help, I have a spreadsheet I can send.
Not exactly. Tampa Bay is a tricky team for this system, since they are in the middle of a 6 game road trip. What I do for teams in a 6+ game road trip is I divide it up into two trips. Charvik does it a little different to where if Tampa would lose the first game, he sets up a Sub-Series and basically turns into a 5+ game road trip and so on.
In this new system I worked on, Tampa ended it's first 3 games, so that is why I started a new one last night. They began another 3 games. Also, in Hockey, there is usually 3 different ways to be a team, the Puck Line, which takes the favorite and applies -1 1/2 with no juice, the ML and the Alternative Puck Line which the favorite gets +1 1/2 with a lot of juice. What you are looking for in my system is to always take the road team if on a 3+ game series with the +1 1/2 goal. If your book doesn't allow the favorite to get this, then obviously this system won't work. Betcris.com comes out with this option around 3 hrs before the first games puck drops.
Hope this helps. Also, if you want more help, I have a spreadsheet I can send.
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Tonight's plays will be:
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 4/5) tonight Loss
Play Carolina +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Friday
Play Vancouver +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) tonight Win
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 4/5) tonight Loss
Play Carolina +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Friday
Play Vancouver +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) tonight Win
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Active plays for me include:
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 5/5) Saturday
Play Carolina +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Tonight Win
Play Edmonton +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Tonight Loss
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 5/5) Saturday
Play Carolina +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Tonight Win
Play Edmonton +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Tonight Loss
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Play Montreal +1 1/2 (leg 5/5) Saturday Win
Play Edmonton +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Sunday
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Saturday Loss
Play Chicago +1 1/2 (leg 1/5) Saturday Win
Play Columbus +1 1/2 (leg 1/4) Saturday Win
Play Edmonton +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Sunday
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Saturday Loss
Play Chicago +1 1/2 (leg 1/5) Saturday Win
Play Columbus +1 1/2 (leg 1/4) Saturday Win
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Play Edmonton +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Sunday Loss
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Monday
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Monday
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Santacapper
Pretty much a regular
glad you got em both tonight Charvik.
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
Remaining Series for the season:
against Blackhawks; 3/13 Sharks; 3/15 Kings; 3/16 Ducks; 3/20 Blue Jackets
against Blues; 3/12 Flames; 3/15 Canucks; 3/17 Oilers
no play: against Islanders; 3/13 Canadiens; 3/15 Senators; 3/17 Panthers; 3/20 Lightning
no play: against Sabres; 3/13 Penguins; 3/15 Panthers; 3/16 Lightning; 3/18 Thrashers
against Wild; 3/13 Canucks; 3/15 Oilers; 3/17 Flames
I am going to finish the Blackhawks, Blues and Wild series for this season, and then I am done. I am not risking anything on the 4 game series for Islanders and Sabres.
If all three of the remaining series are successful I will make a profit of 140 units on the year, and that's pretty good for the first test run. Next year I will definitely look into the O/U version as well. I will also try to check the series opponents better, to try and avoid the 5 losses from earlier in the season.
:cheers:
against Blackhawks; 3/13 Sharks; 3/15 Kings; 3/16 Ducks; 3/20 Blue Jackets
against Blues; 3/12 Flames; 3/15 Canucks; 3/17 Oilers
no play: against Islanders; 3/13 Canadiens; 3/15 Senators; 3/17 Panthers; 3/20 Lightning
no play: against Sabres; 3/13 Penguins; 3/15 Panthers; 3/16 Lightning; 3/18 Thrashers
against Wild; 3/13 Canucks; 3/15 Oilers; 3/17 Flames
I am going to finish the Blackhawks, Blues and Wild series for this season, and then I am done. I am not risking anything on the 4 game series for Islanders and Sabres.
If all three of the remaining series are successful I will make a profit of 140 units on the year, and that's pretty good for the first test run. Next year I will definitely look into the O/U version as well. I will also try to check the series opponents better, to try and avoid the 5 losses from earlier in the season.
:cheers:
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
You and me both, LOL. I wouldn't have been happy losing a series on the Avs of all teams. Especially not in 5 games, since the Avs have never won 5 straight road games in franchise history...
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Play Edmonton +1 1/2 (leg 3/3) Monday Lost
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Monday Lost
Play St. Louis +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Monday Win
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 2/3) Monday Lost
Play St. Louis +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Monday Win
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Hey Charvik, are you stopping because of when teams Clinch, they will start to not play as hard? Just wondering, because I show there are 18 series remaining after the Islanders, Sabres and Wild ones.
If so, then that is cool.
Thanks,
$$$$
If so, then that is cool.
Thanks,
$$$$
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
yup, that's exactly why... my system is way more vulnerable than yours too, so a series loss for me might be the entire profit. I don't want to risk that when there's just a few series to get back any losses...:drink:
twoface
Pretty much a regular
Congrats on a profitable season with the system charvik!
I have a question...you said you got this from another poster from another site right? would it happen it be MM?
Also I don't know what you guys did differently but how come you are at 132 units while he only had about half of that. I do not think he ever hit your amount this season.
I remember there was a crazy series lost against the yotes earlier and the system took a big hit.
It just seems that you recovered ALOT faster than his did...
what's the secret??
I have a question...you said you got this from another poster from another site right? would it happen it be MM?
Also I don't know what you guys did differently but how come you are at 132 units while he only had about half of that. I do not think he ever hit your amount this season.
I remember there was a crazy series lost against the yotes earlier and the system took a big hit.
It just seems that you recovered ALOT faster than his did...
what's the secret??
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
nice going, charvik.
twoface - the end of the "Phoenix disaster" starts at the top of page 6. Everything from there is clearly documented as to how he turned -60 odd units into what it is with his last post. I see nothing out of the ordinary for him to arrive at that point from my observations. You are free to see for yourself.
twoface - the end of the "Phoenix disaster" starts at the top of page 6. Everything from there is clearly documented as to how he turned -60 odd units into what it is with his last post. I see nothing out of the ordinary for him to arrive at that point from my observations. You are free to see for yourself.
twoface
Pretty much a regular
Thanks BC! I'll be sure to check it out!:cheers:
I was just curious because this other guy does the same thing but he is nowhere the same amount of units as charvik...maybe he is doing something different not charvik.
Oh btw, Betcrimes, I remember reading a thread you had last year for the teams who are in the playoffs. You had some numbers that says teams who are good at close games usually win the series.
Last year Edmonton was one of the teams that were good at close games....
Sorry if i got it mixed up...but do you know what i'm talking about?
thanx!
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
twoface - yes, I remember that thread...
<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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Posted: 4/22/2006 11:55:07 AM
I remember before the 03-04 playoffs got underway, someone posted an article by this old guy about his take on what regular season stats to pay attention to when trying to anticipate post season success stories, and highest on his list was how teams performed in 1-goal-margin games. I subsequently did a thread based on his assertions for that season, with Tampa & Calgary featuring highly in those tables, and what followed we all know. Unfortunately that thread of mine & the one that contained that guy's article is long gone, but I decided to do the leg work to see what this season's, and the last 3 season's, have thrown/threw up. Below are the results and my extrapolations from them...
First, the last 3 seasons results....
01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] ........... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Chicago .......... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Los Angeles ..... 17-16 ..... 51.5%
[COLOR=#ff000]Colorado[/COLOR] ......... 16-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
S. Louis .......... 15-15 ..... 50.0%
Phoenix .......... 13-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]54.1%[/COLOR]
San Jose ........ 11-10 ..... 52.3%
Vancouver ...... 11-15 ..... 42.3%
Detroit beat Colorado in the Western Conference Finals.
New York ......... 20-17 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]54.0%[/COLOR]
Boston ............ 20-19 ..... 51.2%
New Jersey ...... 19-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]55.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Toronto[/COLOR] ........... 18-12 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ......... 16-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]51.6%[/COLOR]
Philadelphia ...... 13-13 ..... 50.0%
Montreal .......... 12-12 ..... 50.0%
Ottawa ............ 12-15 ..... 44.4%
Carolina had to beat New Jersey and Toronto (the 2 top % winners) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]Anaheim[/COLOR] ....... 24-15 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Minnesota[/COLOR] ...... 21-16 ...... 56.7%
Edmonton ...... 19-18 ...... 51.3%
Detroit .......... 18-9 ........ [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
S. Louis ......... 15-9 ........ [COLOR=#ff000]62.5%[/COLOR]
Vancouver ..... 15-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
Colorado ........ 14-15 ...... 48.2%
Dallas ............ 10-8 ....... 55.5%
Anaheim had to beat Detroit (the top % winner) and Minnesota (who beat Vancouver, who in turn beat S. Louis) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] .... 24-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
Toronto .......... 22-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.1%[/COLOR]
Washington ..... 20-15 ..... 57.1%
Philadelphia ..... 18-9 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Boston ........... 16-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Ottawa[/COLOR] .......... 16-12 ...... 57.1%
New York ........ 11-10 ..... 52.3%
Tampa Bay ...... 11-14 ..... 44.0%
New Jersey had to beat Boston and Ottawa (who beat Philadelphia, who in turn beat Toronto) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
03-04
S. Louis ........ 23-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]67.6%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ....... 19-13 ..... 59.3%
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... 19-13 ..... 59.3%
Vancouver .... 19-17 ..... 52.7%
Nashville ...... 18-11 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]62.0%[/COLOR]
Detroit ......... 17-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]68.0%[/COLOR]
Dallas .......... 15-9 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]62.5%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 14-15 ...... 48.2%
Calgary had to beat Detroit (the top % winner, who beat Nashville) and San Jose (who beat S.Louis) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
Montreal .......... 19-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ..... 18-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]56.2%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ...... 17-12 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]58.6%[/COLOR]
Toronto ........... 15-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
Boston ............ 14-32 ..... 30.4%
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ...... 12-12 ..... 50.0%
Ottawa ............. 9-17 ...... 34.6%
New York .......... 8-16 ...... 33.3%
Tampa had to beat Montreal (the top 1 goal game winner) and Philadelphia (who beat Toronto and New Jersey) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
From the above tables, its clear that the eventual Stanley Cup Finalists were amongst the top 1 goal game winners and/or the highest % of 1 goal game winners - 3 first places and 2 seconds for total 1 goal games won, with Carolina providing the 1 exception (but in being so, still had to personally go through the 2 highest % winners who were also 3rd & 4th for overall wins, and as that exception was the 1 side who failed to win more than 1 game in the actual Finals).
As for the finals themselves, if whats then looked at is how the Finalists performed in 1 goal games against all other (eventual) playoff teams during the regular season, this is what is found....
01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 10-5 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Carolina .......... 7-13 ..... 35.0%
02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ... 10-9 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]52.6%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 7-11 ..... 38.8%
03-04
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] .... 7-7 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Calgary ........... 6-9 ....... 40.0%
In every instance, the Stanley Cup champions had a better regular season record in 1 goal games against eventual playoff qualifying teams than did the team they beat in the Finals, and that record topped at least 50%. The largest % differential here also led to the largest Finals margin (Detroit by 4-1) - the narrowest % differential here also led to the closest Finals series (thou the Devils/Ducks series also went to 7 games, the Devils were never behind in games in that series, whereas Tampa was, on 3 occasions).
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<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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Posted: 4/22/2006 11:55:38 AM
Now, taking into account all of the above, and applying it to this season's stats as provided by the curent crop of playoff teams, we find...
...for all 1 goal games from the regular season...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Montreal[/COLOR] ......... [COLOR=#ff000]21[/COLOR]-14 ..... 60.0%
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ..... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ..... 17-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]68.0%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ..... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
New York ........ 9-22 ...... 29.0%
Ottawa ........... 8-9 ....... 47.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ........ [COLOR=#ff000]22[/COLOR]-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.1%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.1%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Nashville[/COLOR] ...... 18-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]62.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] ........ 16-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]59.2%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 16-15 ..... 51.6%
Edmonton .... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Dallas .......... 15-14 ..... 51.7%
Anaheim ....... 13-15 ..... 46.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having a top 4 winning %, or being amongst the top 2 total game winners, for 1 goal game results from the regular season.
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Montreal[/COLOR] .......... 9-9 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ...... 8-5 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ........... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ............ 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ....... 6-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]54.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ...... 6-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Ottawa ........... 4-6 ...... 40.0%
New York ........ 4-12 ..... 25.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Nashville[/COLOR] ...... 10-7 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]58.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] ...... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ......... 8-8 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Colorado ....... 8-9 ...... 47.0%
San Jose ....... 8-10 .... 44.4%
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Dallas[/COLOR] ........... 7-7 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ........ 5-8 ...... 38.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having topped at least 50.0% vs. fellow playoff teams (from both Conferences).
Now that we have 2 sets of highlighted groupings, its time to find which teams are highlighted in both of them for each Conference....
Calgary
Detroit
Nashville
Montreal
Philadelphia
Carolina
Buffalo
(Tampa Bay)
....with what was shown earlier, I project the Stanley Cup finalists will come from these teams. In the case of Tampa Bay, I believe they fall into the anomaly that Chicago & (the) New York (Islanders) did in 01-02: a case of such a team only making the playoffs simply because they had a great season in 1 goal games, rather than those good-to-great 1 goal game results being a harbinger of future playoff success, hence I have them in brackets, being exempt from these Finalist projections.
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<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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Posted: 5/4/2006 12:12:37 AM
Thought I'd update these season's charts in light of the 1st Round having finished.
For all 1 goal games from the regular season...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ..... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Ottawa ............ 8-9 ...... 47.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.1%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 16-15 ..... 51.6%
Edmonton .... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Anaheim ...... 13-15 ..... 46.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having a top 4 winning %, or being amongst the top 2 total game winners, for 1 goal game results from the regular season.
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] .... 8-5 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] .......... 7-6 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
Ottawa ......... 4-6 ....... 40.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] .... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 8-9 ...... 47.0%
San Jose ..... 8-10 ..... 44.4%
Anaheim ...... 5-8 ...... 38.4%
4 of the 8 remaining teams are amongst those from all the playoff teams who had positive records against all other playoff teams on the season, a prerequisite for the last 3 Stanley Cup winners.
[COLOR=#ff000]Of the 4 match-ups left, only Colorado and Buffalo are above their opponents on both charts[/COLOR].
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<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
</TD><TD class=mbt vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>
Posted: 5/19/2006 8:50:30 PM
Thought I'd update these season charts in light of the 2nd Round having finished.
for all 1 goal games from the regular season...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Western Conference
Edmonton ... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Anaheim ..... 13-15 ..... 46.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having a top 4 winning %, or being amongst the top 2 total game winners, for 1 goal game results from the regular season.
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] ....... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 5-8 ...... 38.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having topped at least 50.0% vs. fellow playoff teams (from both Conferences).
In my update after Round 1, I noted Anaheim and Ottawa were the only teams below their oppoents on both tables - ottawa lost handily 1-4, but the Ducks won even more handily. In keeping with some stats I presented on Duck plays prior to the playoffs, where I ignored their pre-mid December form since thats where I think their season *actually began*, here are Anaheim's 1 goal figures from mid-December onwards...
For all 1 goal games
Anaheim ...... 11-8 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.8%[/COLOR]
Easily above Colorado's self same stat.
For 1 goal games vs fellow playoff teams
Anaheim ...... 5-5 ......[COLOR=#ff000] 50.0%[/COLOR]
Above Colorado again.
So for the adapted numbers, it was only Buffalo & Anaheim who were above their opponent on both charts for the 2nd round.
For the Conference Finals,
- the Eastern comparisons couldnt be tighter - tied on arguably the more meaningful stat (vs other playoff teams) and only .percentage points separating them for the general stat.
- the Western comparisons (using ANA's adapted numbers) has ANA ahead on the overall season mark, but Edmonton well ahead vs other playoff teams. We'll see whether that largish gap *makes up* for not having home-ice-advantage.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
</TD><TD class=mbt vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>
Posted: 6/2/2006 12:10:50 AM
With the Conference Finals now both over, it time for the final bump....
...for all 1 goal games from the regular season...
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
Edmonton ....... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] ....... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
As with my initial post going back over the last 3 seasons, when assessing what matters for the finals, its been 1-goal results against all other playoff teams...
01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 10-5 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Carolina .......... 7-13 ..... 35.0%
02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ... 10-9 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]52.6%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 7-11 ..... 38.8%
03-04
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] .... 7-7 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Calgary .......... 6-9 ....... 40.0%
05-06
At 64.2%, Edmonton is not only superior to Carolina, but far surpeior to any other of the last 6 Cup Finalists. The 11.0% gap between the 2 team's records is, however, the 2nd closest gap of these recent finals (the 10.0% gap between CAL & TBY being the closest). Never the less, every team with the greater peformance record in this category has won the recent Stanley Cup finals.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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I remember before the 03-04 playoffs got underway, someone posted an article by this old guy about his take on what regular season stats to pay attention to when trying to anticipate post season success stories, and highest on his list was how teams performed in 1-goal-margin games. I subsequently did a thread based on his assertions for that season, with Tampa & Calgary featuring highly in those tables, and what followed we all know. Unfortunately that thread of mine & the one that contained that guy's article is long gone, but I decided to do the leg work to see what this season's, and the last 3 season's, have thrown/threw up. Below are the results and my extrapolations from them...
First, the last 3 seasons results....
01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] ........... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Chicago .......... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Los Angeles ..... 17-16 ..... 51.5%
[COLOR=#ff000]Colorado[/COLOR] ......... 16-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
S. Louis .......... 15-15 ..... 50.0%
Phoenix .......... 13-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]54.1%[/COLOR]
San Jose ........ 11-10 ..... 52.3%
Vancouver ...... 11-15 ..... 42.3%
Detroit beat Colorado in the Western Conference Finals.
New York ......... 20-17 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]54.0%[/COLOR]
Boston ............ 20-19 ..... 51.2%
New Jersey ...... 19-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]55.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Toronto[/COLOR] ........... 18-12 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ......... 16-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]51.6%[/COLOR]
Philadelphia ...... 13-13 ..... 50.0%
Montreal .......... 12-12 ..... 50.0%
Ottawa ............ 12-15 ..... 44.4%
Carolina had to beat New Jersey and Toronto (the 2 top % winners) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]Anaheim[/COLOR] ....... 24-15 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Minnesota[/COLOR] ...... 21-16 ...... 56.7%
Edmonton ...... 19-18 ...... 51.3%
Detroit .......... 18-9 ........ [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
S. Louis ......... 15-9 ........ [COLOR=#ff000]62.5%[/COLOR]
Vancouver ..... 15-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
Colorado ........ 14-15 ...... 48.2%
Dallas ............ 10-8 ....... 55.5%
Anaheim had to beat Detroit (the top % winner) and Minnesota (who beat Vancouver, who in turn beat S. Louis) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] .... 24-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
Toronto .......... 22-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.1%[/COLOR]
Washington ..... 20-15 ..... 57.1%
Philadelphia ..... 18-9 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Boston ........... 16-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Ottawa[/COLOR] .......... 16-12 ...... 57.1%
New York ........ 11-10 ..... 52.3%
Tampa Bay ...... 11-14 ..... 44.0%
New Jersey had to beat Boston and Ottawa (who beat Philadelphia, who in turn beat Toronto) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
03-04
S. Louis ........ 23-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]67.6%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ....... 19-13 ..... 59.3%
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... 19-13 ..... 59.3%
Vancouver .... 19-17 ..... 52.7%
Nashville ...... 18-11 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]62.0%[/COLOR]
Detroit ......... 17-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]68.0%[/COLOR]
Dallas .......... 15-9 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]62.5%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 14-15 ...... 48.2%
Calgary had to beat Detroit (the top % winner, who beat Nashville) and San Jose (who beat S.Louis) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
Montreal .......... 19-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ..... 18-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]56.2%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ...... 17-12 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]58.6%[/COLOR]
Toronto ........... 15-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
Boston ............ 14-32 ..... 30.4%
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ...... 12-12 ..... 50.0%
Ottawa ............. 9-17 ...... 34.6%
New York .......... 8-16 ...... 33.3%
Tampa had to beat Montreal (the top 1 goal game winner) and Philadelphia (who beat Toronto and New Jersey) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.
From the above tables, its clear that the eventual Stanley Cup Finalists were amongst the top 1 goal game winners and/or the highest % of 1 goal game winners - 3 first places and 2 seconds for total 1 goal games won, with Carolina providing the 1 exception (but in being so, still had to personally go through the 2 highest % winners who were also 3rd & 4th for overall wins, and as that exception was the 1 side who failed to win more than 1 game in the actual Finals).
As for the finals themselves, if whats then looked at is how the Finalists performed in 1 goal games against all other (eventual) playoff teams during the regular season, this is what is found....
01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 10-5 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Carolina .......... 7-13 ..... 35.0%
02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ... 10-9 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]52.6%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 7-11 ..... 38.8%
03-04
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] .... 7-7 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Calgary ........... 6-9 ....... 40.0%
In every instance, the Stanley Cup champions had a better regular season record in 1 goal games against eventual playoff qualifying teams than did the team they beat in the Finals, and that record topped at least 50%. The largest % differential here also led to the largest Finals margin (Detroit by 4-1) - the narrowest % differential here also led to the closest Finals series (thou the Devils/Ducks series also went to 7 games, the Devils were never behind in games in that series, whereas Tampa was, on 3 occasions).
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<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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Now, taking into account all of the above, and applying it to this season's stats as provided by the curent crop of playoff teams, we find...
...for all 1 goal games from the regular season...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Montreal[/COLOR] ......... [COLOR=#ff000]21[/COLOR]-14 ..... 60.0%
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ..... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ..... 17-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]68.0%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ..... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
New York ........ 9-22 ...... 29.0%
Ottawa ........... 8-9 ....... 47.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ........ [COLOR=#ff000]22[/COLOR]-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.1%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.1%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Nashville[/COLOR] ...... 18-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]62.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] ........ 16-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]59.2%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 16-15 ..... 51.6%
Edmonton .... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Dallas .......... 15-14 ..... 51.7%
Anaheim ....... 13-15 ..... 46.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having a top 4 winning %, or being amongst the top 2 total game winners, for 1 goal game results from the regular season.
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Montreal[/COLOR] .......... 9-9 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ...... 8-5 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ........... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ............ 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ....... 6-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]54.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ...... 6-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Ottawa ........... 4-6 ...... 40.0%
New York ........ 4-12 ..... 25.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Nashville[/COLOR] ...... 10-7 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]58.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] ...... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ......... 8-8 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Colorado ....... 8-9 ...... 47.0%
San Jose ....... 8-10 .... 44.4%
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Dallas[/COLOR] ........... 7-7 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ........ 5-8 ...... 38.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having topped at least 50.0% vs. fellow playoff teams (from both Conferences).
Now that we have 2 sets of highlighted groupings, its time to find which teams are highlighted in both of them for each Conference....
Calgary
Detroit
Nashville
Montreal
Philadelphia
Carolina
Buffalo
(Tampa Bay)
....with what was shown earlier, I project the Stanley Cup finalists will come from these teams. In the case of Tampa Bay, I believe they fall into the anomaly that Chicago & (the) New York (Islanders) did in 01-02: a case of such a team only making the playoffs simply because they had a great season in 1 goal games, rather than those good-to-great 1 goal game results being a harbinger of future playoff success, hence I have them in brackets, being exempt from these Finalist projections.
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<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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Thought I'd update these season's charts in light of the 1st Round having finished.
For all 1 goal games from the regular season...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ..... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Ottawa ............ 8-9 ...... 47.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.1%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 16-15 ..... 51.6%
Edmonton .... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Anaheim ...... 13-15 ..... 46.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having a top 4 winning %, or being amongst the top 2 total game winners, for 1 goal game results from the regular season.
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] .... 8-5 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] .......... 7-6 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
Ottawa ......... 4-6 ....... 40.0%
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] .... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 8-9 ...... 47.0%
San Jose ..... 8-10 ..... 44.4%
Anaheim ...... 5-8 ...... 38.4%
4 of the 8 remaining teams are amongst those from all the playoff teams who had positive records against all other playoff teams on the season, a prerequisite for the last 3 Stanley Cup winners.
[COLOR=#ff000]Of the 4 match-ups left, only Colorado and Buffalo are above their opponents on both charts[/COLOR].
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<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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Thought I'd update these season charts in light of the 2nd Round having finished.
for all 1 goal games from the regular season...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Western Conference
Edmonton ... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Anaheim ..... 13-15 ..... 46.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having a top 4 winning %, or being amongst the top 2 total game winners, for 1 goal game results from the regular season.
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
Eastern Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
Western Conference
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] ....... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 5-8 ...... 38.4%
Teams are highlighted on the basis of having topped at least 50.0% vs. fellow playoff teams (from both Conferences).
In my update after Round 1, I noted Anaheim and Ottawa were the only teams below their oppoents on both tables - ottawa lost handily 1-4, but the Ducks won even more handily. In keeping with some stats I presented on Duck plays prior to the playoffs, where I ignored their pre-mid December form since thats where I think their season *actually began*, here are Anaheim's 1 goal figures from mid-December onwards...
For all 1 goal games
Anaheim ...... 11-8 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.8%[/COLOR]
Easily above Colorado's self same stat.
For 1 goal games vs fellow playoff teams
Anaheim ...... 5-5 ......[COLOR=#ff000] 50.0%[/COLOR]
Above Colorado again.
So for the adapted numbers, it was only Buffalo & Anaheim who were above their opponent on both charts for the 2nd round.
For the Conference Finals,
- the Eastern comparisons couldnt be tighter - tied on arguably the more meaningful stat (vs other playoff teams) and only .percentage points separating them for the general stat.
- the Western comparisons (using ANA's adapted numbers) has ANA ahead on the overall season mark, but Edmonton well ahead vs other playoff teams. We'll see whether that largish gap *makes up* for not having home-ice-advantage.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=Table33 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=text vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff>BetCrimes1984
No. Points: 37506
Date Joined: 1/29/2004
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With the Conference Finals now both over, it time for the final bump....
...for all 1 goal games from the regular season...
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] .......... [COLOR=#ff000]20[/COLOR]-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
Edmonton ....... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
...and for 1 goal games from the regular season vs. all other playoff qualifying teams...
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ......... 7-6 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]53.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Edmonton[/COLOR] ....... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
As with my initial post going back over the last 3 seasons, when assessing what matters for the finals, its been 1-goal results against all other playoff teams...
01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 10-5 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Carolina .......... 7-13 ..... 35.0%
02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ... 10-9 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]52.6%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 7-11 ..... 38.8%
03-04
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] .... 7-7 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Calgary .......... 6-9 ....... 40.0%
05-06
At 64.2%, Edmonton is not only superior to Carolina, but far surpeior to any other of the last 6 Cup Finalists. The 11.0% gap between the 2 team's records is, however, the 2nd closest gap of these recent finals (the 10.0% gap between CAL & TBY being the closest). Never the less, every team with the greater peformance record in this category has won the recent Stanley Cup finals.
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Well, last night we had our first loss to the +1 1/2 system. Still think it is a good system as of now it is 153-1 with a net profit of +139.2 Units.
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 3/3) Thursday
Play Minnesota +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Tuesday WIN
Play Buffalo +1 1/2 (leg 1/4) Tuesday WIN
Play New York I. +1 1/2 (leg 1/4) Tuesday LOSS
The take home from each series has now been adjusted to 1.7 Units from 1.0 Units to account for the Edmonton series loss.
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 3/3) Thursday
Play Minnesota +1 1/2 (leg 1/3) Tuesday WIN
Play Buffalo +1 1/2 (leg 1/4) Tuesday WIN
Play New York I. +1 1/2 (leg 1/4) Tuesday LOSS
The take home from each series has now been adjusted to 1.7 Units from 1.0 Units to account for the Edmonton series loss.
Last edited:
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Charvik,
Regarding your question some time ago about my +1 1/2 system going with the Road team instead of against them, in the 2005-2006 season, it was 191-2 with St. Louis providing the two losses of 5 games and 3 games. Luckily, the 5 game loss was in midseason and the 3 game loss started on 3/16/06. There were still plenty of games to make up these losses, so I conclude that this is a positive system. Not really sure you could verify this system before the Shootout era though.
Cheers,
$$$$ :cheers:
Regarding your question some time ago about my +1 1/2 system going with the Road team instead of against them, in the 2005-2006 season, it was 191-2 with St. Louis providing the two losses of 5 games and 3 games. Luckily, the 5 game loss was in midseason and the 3 game loss started on 3/16/06. There were still plenty of games to make up these losses, so I conclude that this is a positive system. Not really sure you could verify this system before the Shootout era though.
Cheers,
$$$$ :cheers:
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
Thanks man.
Well, I am not familiar with MM. I got the system from jambruins @ WCS, but I think he first saw it at therx, but not sure about it.
I have tweaked the system somewhat. If I get a win early in a long series, I need 4 remaining games to start a sub-series, and he uses 3. I think the original guy only does 1 win per series, even if that series is 15 games, so he would only get 1 unit per series, while I can have multiple...
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
thanks man :cheers:
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
Very nice!!
Do you remember the biggest bet on a series? I imagine it has to get up there quickly...
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
That's impressive!!! 191-2, WOW
I'll definitely try this and your OU system out next year. Between the 3 the profit has to be close to or above 500 units, that's pretty damn good.
:cheers:
charvik
NHL Road Fade Guru
mofak- Sounds good man!:cheers:
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Play Washington +1 1/2 (leg 3/3) Thursday (Worried about this one) WIN
Play New York I. +1 1/2 (leg 2/4) Thursday LOSS
Play New York I. +1 1/2 (leg 2/4) Thursday LOSS
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$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Well, since I started this one only on March 7th, the highest was risking 10 units, but I have the tracking in my spreadsheet and the most games a series went was 5 with Montreal starting on 02/27/07. There have been 5 series that have gone 4 games. Sorry, no figures since it is hard to research the odds on a +1 1/2 puckline.
$$$$inmywallett
Pretty much a regular
Play New York I. +1 1/2 (leg 3/4) Saturday
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