NHL - 3 Game Road Trip, fade system




charvik

charvik

NHL Road Fade Guru
OK,

this is not my system, but I have seen a lot of success with it the last two years. Basically every time a team goes on a 3 (or more) game road trip, they start a new betting sequence. I will play every home team on the money line. If a home team wins, the series is a win, and I won't continue betting (unless the road team still has 3 games left). The goal is to win 1 unit per series.

This year, there are 167 3-game (or more) road trips, so I expect to make 167 units on the year. IF a series loses, I devide up the lost units on the remaining series, to make up for that loss. Let's say I lose 12 units on the Islanders early in the year, but 120 series remain in the system. I would then make it my goal to win 1.1 units per remaining series, and would adjust my bets accordingly.

I have a spreadsheet set up with all the series, and will play this for fun over the year. Not a lot of capping, but the system, while dangerous to play at times (due to big chases) have been very successful historically.

The idea is that hockey is a very physical sport, and it's tough to put together long win streaks on the road, with all the travel involved.

Anyway, ask questions if you like, and I'm sure I have missed explaining some aspects. If anyone wants the spread sheet, email me at charvik (at) gmail.com

Oct 5th, first day

Sharks ML -240, play against Blues 2.4 units to win 1
Red Wings ML -174, play against Canucks 1.74 units to win 1
Coyotes ML -158, play against Islanders 1.58 units to win 1

:cheers:
 
I'm slightly confused. So say the Stars are on a 3 game road trip. If they play Detroit in game 1 of the trip and its a -150 ML for Det, so I lay 1.5 units to win 1. If Dallas wins then i've lost 1.5 units. Then say Dallas plays Calgary and Calgary is -150 ML as well. So I have to lay 3.75 units to win 2.5 units to make up for my previous loss as well as win a unit? Am I correct? I think I'll shoot you an email cuz i'm interested in the spreadsheet.
 
albyman32 said:
I'm slightly confused. So say the Stars are on a 3 game road trip. If they play Detroit in game 1 of the trip and its a -150 ML for Det, so I lay 1.5 units to win 1. If Dallas wins then i've lost 1.5 units. Then say Dallas plays Calgary and Calgary is -150 ML as well. So I have to lay 3.75 units to win 2.5 units to make up for my previous loss as well as win a unit? Am I correct? I think I'll shoot you an email cuz i'm interested in the spreadsheet.
Click to expand...

You are correct! I am leaving work now, but I'll shoot you the spread sheet tonight, just drop me an email.
 
Got a good email from albyman32 and thought I would answer here instead:

You mentioned in your thread that once a home team wins then you stop betting hte series unless there are still 3 games left for the road team. Why would you continue betting in that case if your goal is to just win a unit for every road series.

I think I was trying to do two things at once, LOL. I would not continue betting on the same series, in the original idea, but it's an option to do so. The fade is 3 continous road games. If a team has 4 games, lose the first, they still have 3 to go. That way you would win more then 167 units.

On the spreadsheet do you just keep overwriting the home team, to win, bet, units play columns for each series until the home team wins or until the road trip ends?

Yes. I am sure this can be made better.

So essentially whenever my +/- units won is way under the number of series that have been played then I need to adjust my units to win in order to catch up?

Not necessarily. I spread out the units over all remaining series as soon as the loss happens.

I guess this also means that if I don't feel good about laying 12 units on a game to try to win a series I can give that series up and just spread out the units over the remaining series.

That could work, but it goes against the 3 road game theory. I would probably stay away from that.
Click to expand...

Good questions! :drink:
 
Thanks for the answers! Do you have the results from last year? I'm curious if this worked better with Western Conference teams since they generally have to travel much longer distances than Eastern conference teams.
 
I'm afraid not. I just followed along on this last year and I didn't keep track. It shouldn't be too difficult to go back and check it though, just a little time consuming.
 
After Day 1: YTD 2-0, 2u

Sharks ML -240, play against Blues 2.4 units to win 1
Red Wings ML -174, play against Canucks 1.74 units to win 1
Coyotes ML -158, play against Islanders 1.58 units to win 1

Islanders lose, so that series is graded a win. Still waiting on Sharks...

For tomorrow 10/6

Blue Jackets ML -122, play against Canucks 3.343 units to win 1 (2nd leg)
Panthers ML -109, play against Bruins 1.09 units to win 1
Sabres ML -168, play against Canadiens 1.68 units to win 1

ETA: The Isles series could still continue as they have 3 games left on their road trip... I will not do that though...

Edit no 2: To reflect the result in the late game.
 
Last edited:
GL with this system charvik. It looks pretty solid and I agree with the reasoning...

I'm on my home Blue Jackets tomorrow as well, let's cash this ticket.
 
Thanks man! I hope you're right or the next round will be expensive ;)

Day 2: YTD 2-0, +2u

Blue Jackets ML -122, play against Canucks 3.343 units to win 1 (2nd leg)
Panthers ML -109, play against Bruins 1.09 units to win 1
Sabres ML -168, play against Canadiens 1.68 units to win 1
 
charvik said:
Thanks man! I hope you're right or the next round will be expensive ;)

Day 2: YTD 2-0, +2u

Blue Jackets ML -122, play against Canucks 3.343 units to win 1 (2nd leg)
Panthers ML -109, play against Bruins 1.09 units to win 1
Sabres ML -168, play against Canadiens 1.68 units to win 1
Click to expand...

YTD 4-0, +4u

1 play for 10/7

Capitals ML +139, play against Hurricanes 0.72 units to win 1

Series still running, Canucks, leg 3 of chase on Sunday
 
charvik said:
YTD 4-0, +4u

1 play for 10/7

Capitals ML +139, play against Hurricanes 0.72 units to win 1

Series still running, Canucks, leg 3 of chase on Sunday
Click to expand...

Winner... YTD 5-0, +5u

Avalanche ML -125, play against Canucks 7.6 units to win 1 (leg 3)

I really hope the Avs can win this game so the series against the Canucks doesn't come down to leg 4... :nervous:
 
you got big time faith in the system to be playing the avs as a fav vs luongo. The system is definitly gold if even the avs win lol good luck man.
 
This worked well last year but games were crammed together because of the Olympics. Think fatigue will be reduced this year. Also what I saw was that results could have been inproved substantially by skipping game 1. My input derived from a similar experiment at the RX that was very productive. GL
 
tuck321 said:
This worked well last year but games were crammed together because of the Olympics. Think fatigue will be reduced this year. Also what I saw was that results could have been inproved substantially by skipping game 1. My input derived from a similar experiment at the RX that was very productive. GL
Click to expand...

Definitely something to keep an eye on. The fatigue angle between this year and the last is something I didn't really consider since apparently this has worked well in non Olympic years in the past.

In what way would the system improve by skipping the first game in each series? Seems to me it shouldn't really matter unless you have a losing series... I will check this out for sure...

Yeah... I think the system might have surfaced at the RX first. I saw it at WCS, where Jambruins had great success with it last year.

:cheers:
 
charvik said:
Winner... YTD 5-0, +5u

Avalanche ML -125, play against Canucks 7.6 units to win 1 (leg 3)

I really hope the Avs can win this game so the series against the Canucks doesn't come down to leg 4... :nervous:
Click to expand...

*whew* the Avs managed to win a game...

YTD 6-0, +6u

2 new series tonight:
Blue Jackets ML -127, play against Coyotes 1.27 units to win 1
Flames ML -135, play against Sharks 1.35 units to win 1

:cheers:
 
Thanks guys... it is looking good so far... I am hoping to be able to build up a buffer bank roll before the first losing series... so far so good...

:cheers:
 
Charvik that experiment is still going on at the RX with results in first and second, third recorded. Bottom line the first game turned out to be a disaster cash wise which was made up later. Why might be no fatigue and a a tendency to a strong start. Thats just spec by me but the first game losses just a fact. Go to RX and check out the thread. GL
 
tuck321 said:
Charvik that experiment is still going on at the RX with results in first and second, third recorded. Bottom line the first game turned out to be a disaster cash wise which was made up later. Why might be no fatigue and a a tendency to a strong start. Thats just spec by me but the first game losses just a fact. Go to RX and check out the thread. GL
Click to expand...

I will do that, thanks!:drink:
 
Am I reading this wrong?

charvik said:
*whew* the Avs managed to win a game...

YTD 6-0, +6u.......


Canucks BEAT the Wings day 1, and Canucks BEAT the Blue Jackets day 2, you had the Wings and Blue Jackets, no?
Click to expand...
 
LindenByers said:
charvik said:
*whew* the Avs managed to win a game...

YTD 6-0, +6u.......


Canucks BEAT the Wings day 1, and Canucks BEAT the Blue Jackets day 2, you had the Wings and Blue Jackets, no?
Click to expand...

Yes, that is correct. The system is based on series, so the individual game losses is of no importance. Now, if the Canucks would've gone on to win their series I would've had a record at 5-1 and -15u (I am just guesstimating)
Click to expand...
 
tuck321 said:
Charvik that experiment is still going on at the RX with results in first and second, third recorded. Bottom line the first game turned out to be a disaster cash wise which was made up later. Why might be no fatigue and a a tendency to a strong start. Thats just spec by me but the first game losses just a fact. Go to RX and check out the thread. GL
Click to expand...

Tuck, I checked out the RX thread and Mark (I don't know if he thought about the system) said that he had calculated with that and that playing the first game in the series was a lot better over the course of the season.

He is also playing on, in the same series if there's still 3 or more games remaining in the series (which I don't), which would allow him to win more units per series... I saw jambruins over there too (I decided to follow this after seeing his success last year) and he was talking about taking out the 4 series that spanned the AS break. I might do that too...

I also saw some valid points in stopping the chase when teams are starting to get eliminated from playoff chances... I will definitely do that. I will probably stop with a month or so to go, but that might change depending on results.

:cheers:
 
Mark also skipped the Vancouver series because he thought they would be good to start the season...

I went back and checked, and I would've picked up an extra unit on the 1st Islanders series, as they lost Saturday, and would've had the second part of the Bruins series running...
 
Somebody also had a point that it was still early in the season, and that road fatigue wasn't really a factor yet, and that might cause me to lose a couple of early ones... oh well, we'll see... I am sure there are ways to improve this.
 
I have been checking some numbers, and I have decided to start a sub-series on a series that ends early. So, after the first unit is won on a series, and 4 or more games remain, I will start "another" series. I will exclude the running Bruins games...
 
charvik said:
YTD 6-0, +6u

2 new series tonight:
Blue Jackets ML -127, play against Coyotes 1.27 units to win 1
Flames ML -135, play against Sharks 1.35 units to win 1

:cheers:
Click to expand...

YTD 7-0, +7u

No games in the system until Wednesday...
 
Wednesday 10/11

Re-opening the Canes series, for the 2nd part, since there's more then 4 road games left in the series:

Panthers ML +104, play against Hurricanes 0.96 units to win 1

Thursday:
Oilers ML, play against Sharks units to win 1 (leg 2/3)
Senators ML, play against Flames units to win 1
Kings ML, play against Stars units to win 1
 
charvik said:
Wednesday 10/11

Re-opening the Canes series, for the 2nd part, since there's more then 4 road games left in the series:

Panthers ML +104, play against Hurricanes 0.96 units to win 1

Thursday:
Oilers ML, play against Sharks units to win 1 (leg 2/3)
Senators ML, play against Flames units to win 1
Kings ML, play against Stars units to win 1
Click to expand...

7-0, +8u

Thursday:
Oilers ML +100, play against Sharks 2.35 units to win 1 (leg 2/3)
Senators ML -160, play against Flames 1.60 units to win 1
Kings ML +100, play against Stars 1 unit to win 1
 
Possible Friday games:

play against Hurricanes (still 5 games remaining on road trip)
play against Sharks (leg 3 of 3 if Sharks win on Thursday)
 
charvik said:
7-0, +8u

Thursday:
Oilers ML +100, play against Sharks 2.35 units to win 1 (leg 2/3)
Senators ML -160, play against Flames 1.60 units to win 1
Kings ML +100, play against Stars 1 unit to win 1
Click to expand...

The Flames series will continue to the next leg...
Oilers win, YTD 8-0, +9u
The Kings series will continue to the next leg too...
 
Last edited:
You gonna start a new series against the Canes tomorrow? I don't see why not since theres 5 games left. Canes should be good for a loss in one of those. The way they're playing right now they could be good for a loss again tomorrow and then we'll have to decide if we want to start another Canes series with 4 games left.
 
albyman32 said:
You gonna start a new series against the Canes tomorrow? I don't see why not since theres 5 games left. Canes should be good for a loss in one of those. The way they're playing right now they could be good for a loss again tomorrow and then we'll have to decide if we want to start another Canes series with 4 games left.
Click to expand...

yup! going to start 2nd or 3rd series in the long road trips if there's more then 4 games left
 
YTD, 8-0, +9u

Friday series:

Thrashers ML -128, play against Hurricanes 1.28 units to win 1 (still more then 4 games remaining on road trip)

Saturday series:
Penguins ML, play against Hurricanes ? units to win 1 (could be 2nd leg, or new series)
Toronto ML, play against Flames ? units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Kings ML, play against Stars ? units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Devils ML, play against Flyers ? units to win 1
 
Last edited:
Saturday series:
Penguins ML -107, play against Hurricanes 2.45 units to win 1 (leg 2/5)
Leafs ML +105, play against Flames 2.48 units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Kings ML +103, play against Stars 1.94 units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Devils ML -140, play against Flyers 1.40 units to win 1
 
charvik said:
Saturday series:
Penguins ML -107, play against Hurricanes 2.45 units to win 1 (leg 2/5)
Leafs ML +105, play against Flames 2.48 units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Kings ML +103, play against Stars 1.94 units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Devils ML -140, play against Flyers 1.40 units to win 1
Click to expand...

YTD 10-0, +11u

Sunday:
Ducks ML -151, play against Stars 5.95 units to win 1 (leg 3/4)

Monday:
Lightning ML, play against Hurricanes ? units to win 1 (leg 3/5)
Islanders ML, play against Predators ? units to win 1 (leg 1/3)
Kings ML, play against Red Wings ? units to win 1 (leg 1/4)
 
charvik said:
YTD 10-0, +11u

Sunday:
Ducks ML -151, play against Stars 5.95 units to win 1 (leg 3/4)
Click to expand...

Monday:
Lightning ML -125, play against Hurricanes 5.93 units to win 1 (leg 3/5)
Islanders ML +118, play against Predators 0.85 units to win 1 (leg 1/3)
Kings ML +130, play against Red Wings 0.77 units to win 1 (leg 1/4)
 
charvik said:
Monday:
Lightning ML -125, play against Hurricanes 5.93 units to win 1 (leg 3/5)
Islanders ML +118, play against Predators 0.85 units to win 1 (leg 1/3)
Kings ML +130, play against Red Wings 0.77 units to win 1 (leg 1/4)
Click to expand...

ouch...

Tuesday:
Sharks ML -141, play against Stars 5.56 units to win 1 (leg 4/4)
Oilers ML -142, play against Canucks 1.42 units to win 1 (leg 1/5)

Need a Sharks win tomorrow so I don't lose the first series of the year...
 
charvik said:
ouch...

Tuesday:
Sharks ML -141, play against Stars 5.56 units to win 1 (leg 4/4)
Oilers ML -142, play against Canucks 1.42 units to win 1 (leg 1/5)

Need a Sharks win tomorrow so I don't lose the first series of the year...
Click to expand...
Whew... I avoided the loss on the Stars series...

YTD 12-0, +13u
 
Wednesday's series:

Rangers ML -130, play against Predators 2.40 units to win 1 (leg 2/3)
Ducks ML -133, play against Red Wings 2.35 units to win 1 (leg 2/4)
Maple Leafs ML -140, play against Avs 1.40 units to win 1 (leg 1/3)
Kings ML +122, play against Wild 0.82 units to win 1 (leg 1/3)

:drink:
 
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