NFL championship games/LINES/DISCUSSION.
- Thread starter J.C.!!!
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BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Suggs, Leonard & Rolle are all battling injuries for Balt.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
werent the Giants a small dog vs Minnesota when they beat them 41-0 to play the Ravens in the SB.
I remember them being even money SU for that game.
I remember them being even money SU for that game.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Colts/Bears 2 seasons back.
Bears beat Saints in Chitown, Indy beat the Pats at the RCA dome.
Bears beat Saints in Chitown, Indy beat the Pats at the RCA dome.
J Galt
Everyone's got a price.....
Really? I remember that Minnesota team and they were doo doo, no defense. Either way, really odd seeing a home dog in a championship game.
Goopster24
Pretty much a regular
Wonder how the Ravens line will shift.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
They still had Moss, and they'd beaten the Saints who'd beaten the season befores SB champs, the "greatest show on turf" Rams. So their side of the draw was considered far tougher. Giants beat Philly, who'd beaten Tampa, and the latter 2 teams were only just beginning to make their mark in the NFC playoff picture.
J Galt
Everyone's got a price.....
How do you figure? All the factors you list above seem like very attractive things to most bettors, don't you think? I personally feel like this line was set to discourage people to bet on Philly, but maybe I'm off here.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
East coast bias and surface level capping I THINK will create a positive betting percentage on Philly.. Could be wrong and don't really care... Suspect the CTG percentage will be on Ariz and the public percentage on Philly...Again could be wrong bro.
People remember the Ariz team from years past and also the Ariz team that gave a lackluster effort after they clinched.. Ariz was pretty damn good team middle of the year for a long stretch.. Now they have it back and have actually exceeded their best stretch.. Defense, Warner (experience) and the best set of WR's left in the playoffs, at home, catching points at plus vig..
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Public will load Philly..
Well, I do like them. That said, Tee's right, this game should be much closer to a PK.
Never lay more than 3 with the Eagles in the playoffs unless it's a very special situation.
Well, I do like them. That said, Tee's right, this game should be much closer to a PK.
Never lay more than 3 with the Eagles in the playoffs unless it's a very special situation.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
By the way, right now on ESPNews it is hilarious. Eric Allen and this ESPN guy are yelling at each other, the ESPN dude is obviously a Giants fan. It's awesome.
**Edit: the ESPN guy was/is Mike Hill, it was great TV**
**Edit: the ESPN guy was/is Mike Hill, it was great TV**
J Galt
Everyone's got a price.....
I respect your thoughts, and do agree with you about the East Coast bias. However, I do think people are going to take into account that Ariz is at home, you're getting points with them, and they have played great 2 weeks in a row. Philly? I thought the defense looked very good both weeks, but offensively they are in a major rut. Asante Samuel has essentially scored half of their 4 TDs this postseason and Westbrook has been shut down apart from 1 screen pass. Maybe I'm looking at this from the wrong perspective, but if I'm Joe Public, I have a hard time betting on a team that is laying points who can't score against a hot team that's averaging 31.5 points a game in the playoffs.
We'll have to see how it plays out this week.
SteelBucsFan
Chicken Thief
42 rushes for 165 yards
27 pass attempts for 177 yards.
Now thats the Steeler offense we all know and love ...
27 pass attempts for 177 yards.
Now thats the Steeler offense we all know and love ...
Goopster24
Pretty much a regular
Cardinals were getting 10 after losing to the Panthers in Carolina.
Now they are getting three at home. The value is with Arizona. Leaning on them even though I got a nice future bet on the Eagles and rooting for them. I will go back and forth with this one all week.
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
2004: steelers +3 vs patriots
SU: Loss, ATS: Loss
2000: giants +2.5 vs vikings
SU: Win, ATS: Win
1997: steelers +3 vs broncos
SU:Loss, ATS: Push
1997: 49ers+2.5 vs packers
SU: Loss, ATS: Loss
1993: dolphins +3.5 vs bills
SU: Loss, ATS: Loss
1988: bears +1 vs 49ers
SU: Loss, ATS: Loss
since 1983 homedogs in a CCG are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.
3rd & Long
Tom Brady is a douchebag
I think I'll be backing the two teams that came out and WON their games this past weekend - Arizona & Pittsburgh.
God these games have been awful.
God these games have been awful.
I heard an interesting stat over the weekend from Brian Billick on ESPN radio....basically Billick said that the rookie qb's (Ryan and Flacco) were 0-9 or 0-10 in games this year in which they threw 30 or more passes. Flacco passed 22 times in the Titans win this weekend. Pitt/Balty is tough. Watching the game this weekend, not sure if Balty has anything left in the tank. Pitt looked energized!
Tito
The Salty Dog
These are the two I'm leaning strongly to as well. Not the sole reason I'm backing them, but the other two won against teams that could not execute whatsoever.
As for the Zona line, I think the perception is still that Zona is not for real. The Eagles are the "hot" team (thought the same could be said for AZ). The Eagles just beat the mighty (lol) Giants, defending superbowl champs, and as always, an East coast bias. Everyone is also being reminded of the drubbing Zona took at the hands of the Eagles earlier in the season (line in that game?) and now all you have to lay is a nice little fg with a Eagle team that is "hotter" than they were when the two teams first met.
I do hate to see that Conf Champ stat on home dogs performing so badly ATS-wise, though.
Will have to check out the Ravens injuries, looks like some key defensive guys are hurting, right? Willie Parker looked great, and while he definitely will have a harder time against the Ravens, it was good to see that he is @ 100%. I think this is the end of the line for the Ravens.
Capt. Slap
1st year apprentice of Sammy
The homerism you display time and time again for your Philadelphia teams is sickening, and ruins reputation.
Steelers are what, 300 miles West of you and you still have the nerve to call the Eagles defense better?
What a joke.
Smokedawg
Eagles Fan
The homerism you display time and time again for your Philadelphia teams is sickening, and ruins reputation.
Steelers are what, 300 miles West of you and you still have the nerve to call the Eagles defense better?
What a joke.
Did I stutter?
Best. Unit. In. The. NFL.
Tito
The Salty Dog
First off, congrats on your Eagles getting to the NFC championship. :shake:
My boys did not execute and the Eagles did what they had to do to win.
But c'mon man, do you really believe that they are the better than Pitt??
That's ridiculous...
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Philly did win in Pittsburgh and beat the living tar out of Big Ben, so they were at least better on that day. Think Philly's a scary match-up for the AFC winner. Zona, not so scary.
Smokedawg
Eagles Fan
That game was in Philly but yeah...oh wait...we just sacked Ben again!!!
Itd be an interesting story line with Philly/Baltimore with the whole McNabb being benched last time thing...
And Pittsburgh/Philly would be a huge game that would sell itself...
Youve gotta think the 'higher ups' would rather have Philly there than Arizona....if youre the type that believes in those sort of things meaning anything....
Smokedawg
Eagles Fan
Right now? Yes I do.
Im not saying Pittsburgh has a bad defense. Im saying Philly's is playing better right now
Past 7 games:
3 at home, 4 on the road for Philly...avg offensive rank of opponents: 13...avg points allowed: 12
4 at home, 3 on the road for Pitt...avg offensive rank of opponents: 19...avg points allowed: 14
Right this second...Philly has a better defense than Pittsburgh
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I don't find the Arizona story all that compelling. Actually more annoying than compelling, qualifying out of the worst division in recent memory. Must be my "midwest bias", that or anger over backing the Panthers on Saturday night. (Good God, did Delhomme suck in that game.)
Anyway, this isn't anything that hasn't been said a million times, but I just think teams that get to the QB can make Warner look old and bad, and those are the only kinds of opponents left in the tournament. Philly's offense is sputtering, so not thrilled with laying any points but that's what I think I'm going to do. Probably both faves for me.
Anyway, this isn't anything that hasn't been said a million times, but I just think teams that get to the QB can make Warner look old and bad, and those are the only kinds of opponents left in the tournament. Philly's offense is sputtering, so not thrilled with laying any points but that's what I think I'm going to do. Probably both faves for me.
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
If you want to play this angle, I agree with Smokegawg that you gotta believe the "higher ups" want to see a Pgh/Phi Super Bowl. Both teams travel well, both are cold weather cities (so fans would love the opportunity to head South), in-state rivalry, etc. . . My initial thoughts, however, are PGH v. ARZ in the SB.
deuce's wild
Pretty much a regular
I think out of both games this weekend Pitt has the best chance of moving on. Balti has been great on defense all year and really made the most of their opportunities for turnovers but I think it comes to an end this weekend. As bad as Carolina was on sat night, same holds true for Tenny in that afternoon game. They had some many chances blown once they got into the redzone. I just do not see Pitt making the same mistakes this weekend.
Phil/Zona matchup should be interesting. Phil defense should be able to pressure Warner and contain that passing game but how easy will it be for Phil to score themselves. Zona has been making a killing off turnovers as well and if they get enough short fields they can put up points quick. Phil at least does have 3 capable cornerbacks to help slow down the WRs of Zona. Should be a good game.
Phil/Zona matchup should be interesting. Phil defense should be able to pressure Warner and contain that passing game but how easy will it be for Phil to score themselves. Zona has been making a killing off turnovers as well and if they get enough short fields they can put up points quick. Phil at least does have 3 capable cornerbacks to help slow down the WRs of Zona. Should be a good game.
deuce's wild
Pretty much a regular
If you want to play this angle, I agree with Smokegawg that you gotta believe the "higher ups" want to see a Pgh/Phi Super Bowl.
I tend to disregard this angle most of the time, especially in the NFL. Regardless who gets in the superbowl, millions of people will be watching.
Now if your dealing with the nba maybe that whole angle comes through as I think the higher ups would do anything to get the right matchup to increase ratings.
I tend to disregard this angle most of the time, especially in the NFL. Regardless who gets in the superbowl, millions of people will be watching.
Now if your dealing with the nba maybe that whole angle comes through as I think the higher ups would do anything to get the right matchup to increase ratings.
Smokedawg
Eagles Fan
Just to be clear, I put no stock in this angle whatsoever...this isnt the NBA...was just puttin it out there...
Smokedawg
Eagles Fan
Im not saying Pittsburgh has a bad defense. Im saying Philly's is playing better right now
Past 7 games:
3 at home, 4 on the road for Philly...avg offensive rank of opponents: 13...avg points allowed: 12
4 at home, 3 on the road for Pitt...avg offensive rank of opponents: 19...avg points allowed: 14
<!-- / message --><!-- sig --> Right this second...Philly has a better defense than Pittsburgh
this is what I believe is going to happen...I just feel it in my bones....at this point of the game it isn't about the game but a buisness....it's all about money:cheers:
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