NFL championship games/LINES/DISCUSSION.

a 3 point fav on the road wins 7 out of 8 times huh?.... Bro, look at all 3 pt favs on the road in the history of the NFL and show me one that has won 7 out of 8 of those contests... Just doesn't happen in the NFL regardless of this discussion..

First of all, theyre a 4 point fave now...

Secondly, I said 7 or 8 out of 10, not 7 out of 8

And thirdly, he asked if I thought Arizona had a chance and I told him what i thought...i dont really care about the other 3 pt road favs in the history of the NFL...i just think if this Eagles team played this Cardinals team in Arizona 10 times in this spot, the Eagles walk away with 7 or 8 wins...
 
The -3 is a shady line in the NFL no doubts about that.

Tee I remember exluding maybe the last 2 seasons that the -3 favorites especially road favorite rarely covered. It is true it seemed they never covered.

However this is a one game spot, anything can happen, although surprised to see it at -3- think it could have been eagles -1--

i guess to get even action -3 was installed, as eagles would be bet up to -3 if they opened at -1
 
-So I think to rely on WARNER and home crowd noise is a mistake in this game.

Betting ZONA for Warner and the crowd is wrong.

.

So to be clear, you feel like the HFA in the NFL does not exist and you also feel Ariz's 7-2 Home Record vs 4-5 road record is a coincidence?


No one said they were betting ARIZ solely because of the HFA and Warner but certainly it is two important components bro.. You pick one or two things up and beat them to death bro.. It is a fact that Ariz is one of 3 or 4 teams in the NFL that has enormous differences in performance based on whether they play at home or on the road.. To ignore that as a capper is puzzling to me..

Maybe I misinterpreted your remark but have seen it a half dozen times on these pages..

no disrespect meant:shake:
 
So to be clear, you feel like the HFA in the NFL does not exist and you also feel Ariz's 7-2 Home Record vs 4-5 road record is a coincidence?


No one said they were betting ARIZ solely because of the HFA and Warner but certainly it is two important components bro.. You pick one or two things up and beat them to death bro.. It is a fact that Ariz is one of 3 or 4 teams in the NFL that has enormous differences in performance based on whether they play at home or on the road.. To ignore that as a capper is puzzling to me..

Maybe I misinterpreted your remark but have seen it a half dozen times on these pages..

no disrespect meant:shake:

Tee home field advantage is a very interesting topic, and a very physcologically based one at that.

People seem to think that the regular season home record of a team matters. Giants and Tennessee and Carolina had good records at home during the regular season. I think Carolina was 8-0 at home.

Not only did these teams lose, they got beaten soundly in their games.

Allow me to give my thoughts on home field advantage.

In the NFL the game is played on the field in reality. The crowd can have positive affects to the home team and also negative affects for the home team. In playoffs enough road teams win games on the road, look at Giants last year.

If a team is a dominant ie very good team and plays at home do they win because they were at home or they were a good team?

Pitts vs sandiego is a perfect example? Did Pitts benefit from playing at home? Probably? Did they win because they were at home?
They won because they were the better team, and rested and overall are better than San Diego. Its just that simple.

So on the field is where the games are won. No matter how hard the crowd tries and yells it does not make the home QB play better, it does not mean much.
Of course when the home team wins, everyone will say oh they won because they were at home and the crowd made them win.

Good teams win on the field, doesent matter if they play on the road, in mars, in jupiter, they win the games. Boston Celtics were the best NBA team last year even if they played teams in IRAQ they would still win.

I agree that ZONA is one of the teams that has a big differential from home play to road play, because of their location and climate, but this year they coincidentally lost to giants and vikings, 2 teams that eagles have beaten.

It is known in the playoffs that road receivers often outperform home db's. When they see the crowd, it motivates them more than the home team.
DO you think its coincidence that teams like ravens, giants last year go and take it personally and win on the road?

Eagles playing in ZONA is no advantage to ZONA, in fact its a negative to me.

Consider these things--

-Whole city talking about superbowl- pressure on the game-
-Young players looking ahead to superbowl-
-Hangover from beating Carolina
-Expectations to NOT FAIL IN FRONT OF HOME CROWD-
-The world on Warners shoulders to perform here-

The better team wins on the field bro, if ZONA wins I can assure you that home field had nothing to do with the win. The players on ZONA may have wanted it more and played better and just outplayed the Eagles.

Eagles will be on a business trip to ZONA, they are there to win this game-
ZONA is carrying on with regular life, going out, dinners, family life, they have way more distractions, Leinart binge drinking and partying with underage college students. Zona has all the distractions here.

So I think I have shown that Home field is no advantage at all, in fact a focussed eagles team is coming to town, their goal is to win and they have no distractions outside of football.

The proof lies in this fact, almost any championship team has always won big games on the road. I have rarely seen a champion that did not win any games on the road. When the teams are good teams the home field advantage is negated bigtime.


For the record I have no bet on this game yet-- I am neutral on it, its 2 very good teams both peeking. As always hopeyou nail the big ones.:smiley_acbe:
 
It is known in the playoffs that road receivers often outperform home db's.

Where is this known?? No one ever told me.
 
courtesy of Robert Fiory at blankets

Defensive Hog Index

The Index is simply a compilation of how each team’s defensive front seven ranks in three key categories: their ability to stop the run, their ability to force opponents into negative pass plays (sacks and interceptions) and their ability to stop opponents on third down.

Each is important in its own right:


Stopping the run – Most “pundits” agree that stopping the run is a key to victory, especially in cold-weather football.


Forcing negative pass plays – This is huge: teams that force quarterbacks into mistakes (sacks and interceptions) win football games. It’s simple as that. In fact, throughout the Super Bowl Era, teams that fail to force opponents into a single interception win just 22 percent of the time in the playoffs. Teams that force opponents into two interceptions win 69 percent of the time.


Third-down defense – It’s hard to win if you can’t get off the field. Just ask the Chargers, who had the life squeezed out of them by a suffocating python from Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers held the ball an amazing 14 minutes and 43 seconds of the third quarter.


Teams that are good in all three areas rank highly on the Defensive Hog Index and, it seems, are well built to win playoff games.


So here’s what the indicator says about the conference title contenders :


Arizona (No. 17 in DHI) – The Cardinals are clearly the red-birded stepchild of final four teams. Not only were they a humble 9-7 this year, they finished the season ranked a mere 17th on the Defensive Hog Index. But here’s the catch: they had the good fortune here in the playoffs of facing the only two NFC contenders worse than they were on the defensive front, the Falcons (23rd) and Panthers (19th). That trend ends on Sunday.


Baltimore (No. 3) – You know the Ravens are traditionally good defensively, and the Defensive Hog Index quantifies it: Baltimore ranked in the top five this year against the run (opponents averaged 3.56 YPA), against the pass (forcing negative pass plays on 10.7 percent of drop backs) and on third down (opponents converted just 33.5 percent of attempts). In fact, the Ravens were better in every single one of these areas than the 13-3 Titans team that they upset on Saturday.


Philadelphia (No. 2) – The Eagles were even better than Baltimore in every aspect of the Defensive Hog Index, ranking fourth against the run (3.51 YPA), third forcing negative pass plays (11.0%) and second on third-down defense (opponents converted 32.2 percent of attempts). The Eagles easily win this battle against the Cardinals.


Pittsburgh (No. 1) – The Steelers were not only No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index this year, they were absolutely dominant – ranking No. 1 across the board in every single aspect of the indicator. In the two years that they we’ve tracked the Defensive Hog Index over at Cold, Hard Football Facts.com, no team has ever ranked No. 1 across the board in any given week. But at the end of 2008, the Steelers were the best team in the NFL against the run (3.29 YPA); they were the best team at forcing opponents into negative pass plays (12.2 percent of drop backs ended in a sack or interception); and they were the best team in football on third down (opponents converted just 31.4 percent of attempts).


If the trends hold true, the Steelers beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.


The Defensive Hog Index they use over at this site has accurately identified 18 of 19 winners over the past two postseasons.

The Defensive Hog Index (DHI) is simply a measure of each team’s defensive front. It tells you a lot about the conference title games this week

First: Yes, it is true, the Cold, Hard Football Facts Defensive Hog Index has identified 18 of 19 playoff winners over the past two seasons.

In other words, teams that ranked higher in this indicator have won each and every playoff game but one.
The DHI even identified the team that would shock the world and win the Super Bowl last year.


That’s right: the Giants were weak in many areas last year. But they were No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index. Here in 2008, meanwhile, the Steelers, Eagles, and Ravens – three of the final four teams – rank 1-2-3, respectively.


Notice a trend here ?


Last year, when the DHI went 10-1 in the playoffs, They considered it something of a statistical anomaly

But, then it went 4-0 on wildcard weekend this year. And then it went 4-0 again in the divisional round – accurately identifying all three road upsets last weekend (Eagles over Giants, Cardinals over Panthers, Ravens over Titans).


Did you pick all three of those underdogs to win on the road?
In fact, the only team that bucked the trend over the past two postseasons – the lone loss for the Defensive Hog Index – was the New England Patriots in the AFC title game last year: the Patriots ranked 7th on the indicator; the Chargers ranked 5th.


So it was a pretty narrow difference to begin with, and the Patriots dominated the Chargers in almost every other indicator that they use to rank teams. So it took all that statistical inertia in New England’s favor, not to mention the only 16-0 team NFL history, to overcome the raw, naked pigskin power of the Defensive Hog Index.


Why’s it been so effective? Well, they're trying to figure it out, too. They just introduced the indicator last year.
 
Crimes that indicator makes sense to me.

I use a similar indicator, its basically the same thing---

Its called DEFENSE wins championships and offense sells tickets--

Simply take the team with the better defense and you will win your playoff bets-

You have to find out who the better defense really is between the 2 teams.
 
Being a Rams fan, Warner had his worst days vs very good defenses. I think someone mentioned this already, if Warners 1st option is no there on the blitz, he will hold onto the ball too long and fumble after being hit. We'll know right away if Jimmy Johnson has Warner in trouble. I did not see the Thanksgiving night matchup but by the looks of it, it wasn't pretty.
 
Wiseplayer you are correct, I guess its a chess match and if you bet on offense over Defense-

as the stats above point out, sticking with the better defense and your wallet will thank you .
 
Just thought this was funny. From Deadspin -

The key question this week, or with any conference championship game, or NLCS, or Elite Eight, or Conference Finals, or whatever, is: What would this win mean? It's difficult to argue that the game means more for the Cardinals than the Eagles. If the Buzzsaw loses, we will be sad, but we fans will remember the season with fondness and considerable bewilderment. No one will be angry. It was an incredible run. We'll never forget it. If the Eagles lose, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb must die. It's all a matter of perspective.
 
if ZONA wins I can assure you that home field had nothing to do with the win.

Not talking about winning and losing bro. Talking about covering and not covering.. If the game was in Philly what would you make the line? 7 maybe 7.5... The HFA is worth 3 or 3.5 points in the NFL.. PLease tell me you are not disputing that.. We are cappers bro. among other things I like in this game I also think Ariz HFA's at this point, all things considered is slightly more than the average HFA..Add all that shit up and I think the game should be closer to a pick. I am getting +3 or +4... That equals large bet for me.. Simple as that..
 
Did you guys know that Warner didn't get sacked in their first meeting?

Other hand, he threw three picks, but surprised to see they didn't sack him.

1 to 4 rushes to pass for AZ too...that will change, I think
 
Did you guys know that Warner didn't get sacked in their first meeting?

Other hand, he threw three picks, but surprised to see they didn't sack him.

1 to 4 rushes to pass for AZ too...that will change, I think

Ariz was terrible in Game 1 and so was Warner.... Everything is so much different in this game I didn't even use game one to cap this unless one uses it as extra motivation for Ariz to atone.

Ariz is not a cold weather outdoor team and since they had very little to play for that was a trainwreck situation.
 
I think you can throw out the 'extra motivation' factor as well as any chance the Eagles take this team for granted

Its the NFC Championship game
 
Ariz was terrible in Game 1 and so was Warner.... Everything is so much different in this game I didn't even use game one to cap this unless one uses it as extra motivation for Ariz to atone.

Ariz is not a cold weather outdoor team and since they had very little to play for that was a trainwreck situation.


Much different from that game Tee, I agree. I'm on the AZ ML, but I was just pointing out in a game where they clearly were in a bad spot he was not sacked once vs the Philly D. Just surprised by that. Hurries, i don't know, maybe that was the result of the INTs.
 
vikings rush defense rank: #1
giants rush defense rank: #9

falcons rush defense rank: #25
panthers rush defense rank: #20

eagles rush defense rank: #4

cardinals rush defense rank: #16

something tells me one running game will come crashing back to earth while the other will see a little resurgence....
sorry smokedawg maybe next year!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Back
Top