NFC Wildcard Discussion Thread

cogenman said:
Just an FYI the SF game should get a pretty good amount of rain with the early forecast. We've been getting a lot of rain lately so the field could be sloppy. Friday night should have a better picture of what the weather will be like.
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More rain is on the way. Forecasters say the wet weather will run through Wednesday evening. After a brief break, another storm is expected to move into the area on Friday with several consecutive days of rain in the forecast.
 
Dre Greenlaw (pro bowl snub and seahawk killer) back at practice this week as well as starting LG Aaron Banks and DT Kevin Givens.

Rain favors the 49ers even more with the superior offensive and defensive lines and takes away the only potential weakness, the deep ball.
 
dfresh said:
Dre Greenlaw (pro bowl snub and seahawk killer) back at practice this week as well as starting LG Aaron Banks and DT Kevin Givens.

Rain favors the 49ers even more with the superior offensive and defensive lines and takes away the only potential weakness, the deep ball.
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I understand your logic behind the rain favoring niners, don’t disagree but I think when you have such a massive mismatch good weather best for the better team. You get sloppy conditions and imo you could get less predictable result, more fluke shit. I do think niners gonna dominate tho los so hopefully it moot but I don’t love laying double digits nearly as much I would a nice sunny day even if niners can be little vulnerable on outside,
 
2daBank said:
I understand your logic behind the rain favoring niners, don’t disagree but I think when you have such a massive mismatch good weather best for the better team. You get sloppy conditions and imo you could get less predictable result, more fluke shit. I do think niners gonna dominate tho los so hopefully it moot but I don’t love laying double digits nearly as much I would a nice sunny day even if niners can be little vulnerable on outside,
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Yeah if there's anything about the NFC I'd feel comfortable with it's under in that game and not just because of the rain, that only helps the likely running clock to run faster. Not sure how anyone could feel comfy laying double digits in that type of game no matter the names on the jerseys
 
2daBank said:
They clearly had a better season but that not often who wins these games. I agree they could curb stomp bucs but I don’t think they will. I think you pretty much have to count on Dak throwing 1-2 bad picks cause when bucs want to they can stop the run and Dallas has not been running it well at all the last month. If Dak throwing 30+ passes you have to assume he gonna make at least one awful throw if not 2. As bad bucs been I saw Brady throw for 400+ not to long ago, if Dallas can’t get to him, which they havnt been getting to qb lately, I could see him do it again against a shaky secondary outside diggs. I dunno, I don’t trust either one these teams I just more inclined to take plus money with the qb I’ve seen win playoff games most my adult life vs a team that been total chokers this entire century. For me it comes down to I can just live with myself more losing on Brady than I could losing backing Dallas.
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Careful reading too much into that 400 yd performance… Carolina played that game with a totally depleted secondary. I would take more from the fact that they allowed Sam Darnold to throw for almost 350.
 
C-MAN said:
Careful reading too much into that 400 yd performance… Carolina played that game with a totally depleted secondary. I would take more from the fact that they allowed Sam Darnold to throw for almost 350.
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I don’t read much into it, I never seen a wr running open down the field as much as Evans was that day, I coulda made 2 of the 3 throws, one was actually being defended and was a perfect pass. I just think we seen enough of good brady in bits and pieces this year to where if he has time I still think he can beat Dallas secondary. If Dallas gets pressure you will probably be living a mostly stress free life, I’m just not real convinced they can. 1st off they playing on grass where their edge rushers don’t look as fast, 2nd where that pass rush been the last month? Parsons has looked like just a guy the past month or so, pretty much since the minny game (on turf), 3rd I think bucs oline will be about as healthy they been all year. Far as darnold going for 350 It wouldn’t shock me at all if Dak threw for 300+ but just like darnold if he throwing that much he bound to throw a couple to the defense.
 
Most the year brady had been able to move the offense, the reason they scoring a putrid 18 points a game cause they have went from a top 5 red zone offense to sucking in the red zone this year. Kyle Rudolf catching that td on 1st drive last week I think might be a good sign, he been a ghost most the year, Brady loves his te’s in the red zone.
 
I tell ya what @C-MAN , Dak passing yards prop feels low! 247.5? I can for sure get down with that! Could end up being another game I have more money on props than side., he has hit that in 8 of 11 games since coming back!
 
KJ said:
Same game parlay yo
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I’m sure I’ll have couple games w a few of those. I don’t love the haircut they make ya take on the odds but I do seem to hit a lot of them cause when I have game script right I tend to hit lot of props. Sometimes better than carrying 1 at a time into other games cause I run into a game I’m flat out wrong bout and none the props hit.
 
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Will wait to see how the weather shakes out, but it will not be anything like the downpour that was in Chicago. BTW the 49ers dominated that game prior to the rainfall. Having to throw was almost impossible once they fell behind due to a fluke TD.
 
Love both Dak props! Actually I think the best the Bucs looked this season was the first half vs Cincy. They were dominating both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, it’s a 4-quarter game and the second half from them was probably the worst they’ve looked all year. I love TB 12 as much as anyone, just not feeling it from his team this year
 
C-MAN said:
Love both Dak props! Actually I think the best the Bucs looked this season was the first half vs Cincy. They were dominating both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, it’s a 4-quarter game and the second half from them was probably the worst they’ve looked all year. I love TB 12 as much as anyone, just not feeling it from his team this year
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I often praise cincy for their halftime adjustments, especially on d, but that was a total Brady and co meltdown in the 3rd! That might be the worst qrtr of football brady ever played and it wasn’t like the defense caused much of it. 1st they tried a fake punt and failed (obviously not on Brady), then Brady turns it over in b2b2b possessions to hand cincy that game. Burrow and co were mostly being held in check by bucs d, all they did was cash the short fields Brady handed them. That was a crazy game and yea Brady’s 1st half was prob best he been all year, dunno what the fuck happened to him after halftime?

The Dak props should def be good. So should Brady over 42.5 attempts, that craxy low number for him! Think he has thrown less passes than that maybe 3x all year? Crazy it set there, maybe they expect Dallas run game to control this game? That would shock me, I’d expect Bowles to be ultra aggressive to stop run and get into backfield.
 
dfresh said:
Will wait to see how the weather shakes out, but it will not be anything like the downpour that was in Chicago. BTW the 49ers dominated that game prior to the rainfall. Having to throw was almost impossible once they fell behind due to a fluke TD.
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I really think I’d prefer good weather to lay the number even tho I agree w you that seattle only path to points is hitting some big plays to DK or Lockett. I don’t think geno will have time to pull many of those off, rather have niners pass rushers have good footing!! Bigger the mismatch the more inclement weather could potentially balance things out imo. Even when it a situation where the better team should dominate the run game and stopping the run. Still rather have good weather. Please Keep us posted!

The scariest thought just crossed my mind like what if niners lose 3-4 fumbles and somehow lose the game: then on east coast Philly can’t get back to their peak form and lose to Gmen. I can’t even imagine how awful the nfc champ amd SB would be, it be tcu/Uga all over again! Lol
 
I knew giants out gained Vikings in the previous meeting but this pretty telling. Giants 6.7 ypp, Vikings 5 ypp in that game. The Golden Horseshoe up the Vikings butt can only take them so far, they get outplayed again and this time the scoreboard will reflect it, no last second 60 yard fgs for them this week as giants will have the ball and lead at the end!
 
I’m with you on Gmen. If they only had a good wr option (Toney being a bust killed them) they would be dangerous. I think they win this week, but gonna need some luck to advance beyond that.
 
dfresh said:
Dre Greenlaw (pro bowl snub and seahawk killer) back at practice this week as well as starting LG Aaron Banks and DT Kevin Givens.

Rain favors the 49ers even more with the superior offensive and defensive lines and takes away the only potential weakness, the deep ball.
Click to expand...
How much rain we thinking?
 
C-MAN said:
I’m with you on Gmen. If they only had a good wr option (Toney being a bust killed them) they would be dangerous. I think they win this week, but gonna need some luck to advance beyond that.
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Hodgins and James are growing on me, they been pretty good the last month, their prop numbers been so low cause nobody knows who they are! Lol. I like them both again here, they both had big games vs Vikings trash pass d last meeting and I expect them both get at least 50 receiving yarfs pretty easy.
 
I'm seeing a ton of NYG picks because the Vikings are frauds.

Are the Giants not frauds? 1-6 in games vs playoff teams.

They played one of the best offensive games of the season vs Minny and still lost. Only one of two games where Daniel Jones threw o300 yds. I give NY props for what they have done with this team, but this is the end of the line for them. Jefferson TD-132 & yds o95.5. He is going to abuse that secondary in every way.
 
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Lexington 125 said:
I'm seeing a ton of NYG picks because the Vikings are frauds.

Are the Giants not frauds? 1-6 in games vs playoff teams.

They played one of the best offensive games of the season vs Minny and still lost. Only one of two games where Daniel Jones threw o300 yds. I give NY props for what they have done with this team, but this is the end of the line for them. Jefferson TD-132 & yds o95.5. He is going to abuse that secondary in every way.
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I’m with you. Feels like everyone likes G Men…Minn the best I feel best about
 
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Lexington 125 said:
I'm seeing a ton of NYG picks because the Vikings are frauds.

Are the Giants not frauds? 1-6 in games vs playoff teams.

They played one of the best offensive games of the season vs Minny and still lost. Only one of two games where Daniel Jones threw o300 yds. I give NY props for what they have done with this team, but this is the end of the line for them. Jefferson TD-132 & yds o95.5. He is going to abuse that secondary in every way.
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Yeah it's easy to fade the Vikings but NYG might well rank as a top 5 all time worst playoff team given the regular season in history when they are 100% healthy. Vikings team total should sail home. Defensive score very possible.
 
NFC

So far on:

Cowboys -2.5
Giants +3

I love the Cowboys here. Too much. Have to remind myself Mike McCarthy is the coach.

Giants?

Better team overall
Better coach
Better ground game
You can argue (and QBR backs up) better overall QB
Equal defense

Blind resume with those pieces of info, getting 3 on the road, would seem like an auto play to me.
 
Everyone has said a little bit on the San Fran/Seattle game

I don’t love it. 8 of 9 within 10 points in this rivalry. First team to see Purdy twice. SF very well might run for 250. I don’t wanna be on the end of a 24-9 San Fran lead and a late Seattle score covers. I could get behind a San Fran tease.
 
Capaholic said:
Everyone has said a little bit on the San Fran/Seattle game

I don’t love it. 8 of 9 within 10 points in this rivalry. First team to see Purdy twice. SF very well might run for 250. I don’t wanna be on the end of a 24-9 San Fran lead and a late Seattle score covers. I could get behind a San Fran tease.
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Pretty much exact same thing happened in last meeting. Niners mostly dominated the game, up 21-6 and seattle gets a late td to make it only a 8 point win. Looks like this gonna be played in slop which prob adds a dimension of variance I rather not have if backing the fav.
 
Capaholic said:
NFC

So far on:

Cowboys -2.5
Giants +3

I love the Cowboys here. Too much. Have to remind myself Mike McCarthy is the coach.

Giants?

Better team overall
Better coach
Better ground game
You can argue (and QBR backs up) better overall QB
Equal defense

Blind resume with those pieces of info, getting 3 on the road, would seem like an auto play to me.
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I know ppl don’t want to buy the giants, I get it, they havnt beaten a good team since week 7, since their bye they have wins against Houston, Washington (after tying them), and the colts, not exactly tough teams. They did outplay minny in minny despite losing on the last second fg. They held Vikings to 10 points thru 3 qrtrs and despite Jefferson and Hockenson going off they held Vikings to 5ypp while they went for a whopping 6.7 in that game! If memory serves me right they actually were doing a pretty good job on Jefferson until the 4th when he went off and Vikings scored 17 points. Gmen put 8 db’s on the field a lot in that game yet cook still only ran for 64 yards. I think they know they can control Vikings run game dedicating minimal ppl to the box, that should free them up to show a lot of different looks and coverages while also getting some pressure on cousins. To me that the main difference in this game, yes Vikings have much better weapons but Gmen the only team in this game who has a defense capable of causing the offense problems.

Vikings d is so freaking bad you can pretty much do whatever you want against them and giants did in the 1st meeting going for 120+ on the ground and another 334 thru the air at 6.7 per play! Hodgins and James have stepped up down the stretch and given Jones a couple reliable targets on the outside to go with slayton, certainly not a huge name wr corp but one that is good enough to pick up 1st downs against this awful Vikings d so they can continue getting barkley and Jones going on the ground.

I just don’t think you beat a team multiple times when you win all your games by a score? They beat packers down to start year, got crushed in rematch, they beat lions close, got crushed in rematch. Only team they beat twice was the bears who started Nate peterman! Had fields been healthy they probably lose to bears the 2nd time around also! They best Gmen close despite being out played, they gonna lose the rematch!
 
I think a lot went right for the Giants in the first meeting but I also think they still lost and it wasn't as if they dominated the Vikes. They were still down at halftime because the Giants fumbled on a catch that would have put them in the red zone. There was never a point in that game where the Giants led. In addition, that game fell in a perfect spot to fade the vikings with them coming off of the biggest comeback in NFL history which happened to secure them their division and the playoffs.

I understand it is a passing league and the vikings pass defense is really bad but the Giants rush defense has also been pathetic and I think it will be tough for them to keep up with Minnesota if the vikings are able to be balanced. Obviously this league is nearly impossible to beat with betting and there are no great or awful bets so it isn't like the giants winning by a TD would be shocking. Also, for as bad as Cousins is .. I would rather have him than the other guy for the last minute drive, defenses be damned.
 
RetroVK said:
I think a lot went right for the Giants in the first meeting but I also think they still lost and it wasn't as if they dominated the Vikes. They were still down at halftime because the Giants fumbled on a catch that would have put them in the red zone. There was never a point in that game where the Giants led. In addition, that game fell in a perfect spot to fade the vikings with them coming off of the biggest comeback in NFL history which happened to secure them their division and the playoffs.

I understand it is a passing league and the vikings pass defense is really bad but the Giants rush defense has also been pathetic and I think it will be tough for them to keep up with Minnesota if the vikings are able to be balanced. Obviously this league is nearly impossible to beat with betting and there are no great or awful bets so it isn't like the giants winning by a TD would be shocking. Also, for as bad as Cousins is .. I would rather have him than the other guy for the last minute drive, defenses be damned.
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6.7 yards per play to 5 yards per play is pretty telling don’t you think? And giants were leading 13-10 going into 4th so they did lead in the game.
 
RetroVK said:
I think a lot went right for the Giants in the first meeting but I also think they still lost and it wasn't as if they dominated the Vikes. They were still down at halftime because the Giants fumbled on a catch that would have put them in the red zone. There was never a point in that game where the Giants led. In addition, that game fell in a perfect spot to fade the vikings with them coming off of the biggest comeback in NFL history which happened to secure them their division and the playoffs.

I understand it is a passing league and the vikings pass defense is really bad but the Giants rush defense has also been pathetic and I think it will be tough for them to keep up with Minnesota if the vikings are able to be balanced. Obviously this league is nearly impossible to beat with betting and there are no great or awful bets so it isn't like the giants winning by a TD would be shocking. Also, for as bad as Cousins is .. I would rather have him than the other guy for the last minute drive, defenses be damned.
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The theory is good on Minnesota...

But...

They absolutely hate running the ball.

Yes, that is odd with the backfield they have. They just don't care to.
 
RetroVK said:
my mistake on the never leading thing.
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I dunno if there a right answer here, both these teams suck in their own way. I prefer the better d and I don’t think I want cousins in any situation. Plus I’ve seen minny play a couple mediocre teams 2x after winning the 1st and they got whipped both times in rematch, bears with a bum 3rd string qb was only div team they beat both times. I feel like giants about as average as those nfc north teams Vikings couldn’t beat a 2nd time (well at least as good as packers, prob not lions).
 
B.A.R. said:
The theory is good on Minnesota...

But...

They absolutely hate running the ball.

Yes, that is odd with the backfield they have. They just don't care to.
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I actually like Dalvin props now that you say this

Rookie coach, first playoff game...bet he relies on Cook much more than Cousins

Just my thinking, won't be surprised if Vikings steamroll the more I've thought about it. Think they are better in all facets, including defense, outside of QB which if it comes down to decisions by QB, this will be close.

Can't blame anyone taking the pts but doubt they matter
 
KJ said:
I actually like Dalvin props now that you say this

Rookie coach, first playoff game...bet he relies on Cook much more than Cousins

Just my thinking, won't be surprised if Vikings steamroll the more I've thought about it. Think they are better in all facets, including defense, outside of QB which if it comes down to decisions by QB, this will be close.

Can't blame anyone taking the pts but doubt they matter
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So, you think they change their offense after 17 games?
 
KJ said:
I actually like Dalvin props now that you say this

Rookie coach, first playoff game...bet he relies on Cook much more than Cousins

Just my thinking, won't be surprised if Vikings steamroll the more I've thought about it. Think they are better in all facets, including defense, outside of QB which if it comes down to decisions by QB, this will be close.

Can't blame anyone taking the pts but doubt they matter
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Giants played 8 db’s a ton in 1st meeting and cook only got 14 carries
 
2daBank said:
Agree points not needed. Gmen ml all day
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You went from questioning the play to "all day"?

Colossal shift!

Neither team is good but purple is probably better and doesn't have an emotional coach

Nothing on it yet but if anything will be in Minny scoring points against a team that can give them up. Curious how excited you are betting on Danny Jones on the road in the playoffs. Think he'll make the Vikes defense look legit for several minutes.
 
Haven’t posted a winner in a minute…I hate the Vikings like P unit hates the Saints…

I think this is the clear winner. Could be so wrong but it’s short to me the line that is.

And I “get it”….but I’m laying it earlier than later


Also like Dallas. Not as sure there. I rode SF alllllll playoffs last year so that ain’t this and this ain’t that
 
Cook was 36th out of 42 eligible RB in DYAR and DVOA this season. That only factors in what you do, not what the coach does. O Line is a terrible run blocking line as well. If they committed to this and did any of this well, I’d prob go Vikes.

Not everyone will see it same, but like I said before I see advantages for Giants in several areas.

Feel much stronger about Cowboys though
 
KJ said:
You went from questioning the play to "all day"?

Colossal shift!

Neither team is good but purple is probably better and doesn't have an emotional coach

Nothing on it yet but if anything will be in Minny scoring points against a team that can give them up. Curious how excited you are betting on Danny Jones on the road in the playoffs. Think he'll make the Vikes defense look legit for several minutes.
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Not really, it always been nyg or nothing for me. Sure I can poke holes in them but I can poke just as many in Vikings and think the matchup suites Gmen pretty well. I seriously think these fuckers might end up in the nfc championship, not cause they good just cause the path, it will just depend on which Philly shows up after the bye, I have no clue.

I don’t think Jones will have any problems dealing w playoffs, I expect him to be himself which is sometimes ok, sometimes not but he seems very even keeled to me, I don’t expect the moment to bother him and against this d I’d expect the solid version of him, what bout vikings d any different? The only difference I see coming is giants get more points out of all those yards. Cousins the one I never want my money on, he not exactly known for performing his best in big games amd I think nyg defense far more capable of causing him problems,. Gmen dc is good and he has some dudes up front. I don’t see all these edges for Vikings the only place on the entire roster I think they better Is the pass catchers, Imo giants better coached and i like seeing Vikings got boat raced in 2 out of their 3 division rematches, that can’t bode well for them, seems to me their opponents had the answers against them in the rematches. the yards per play discrepancy was massive for nyg last game and that was w huge games by Jefferson and Hockenson, I think Gmen will have a better plan for them and I don’t think vikings have much of a counter. Vikings have only won 2 games by margin all year, pack week 1 who were totally unprepared (and smashed them In rematch) and bears last week who threw in the towel. Pretty sure Vikings have by far the worst point differential of a 13 win team in history. Maybe they win another close game but im totally confident nyg will have a chance to win this game in the 4th if they not just leading most the way. If I lose it ok, that sends minny to San Fran next week so shouldn’t have any problem getting it back there, lol.
 
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