NFC Wildcard Discussion Thread

Purdy is playing with fire a lot of the time but this is as good as a scenario you get for “playoff nerves” as possible. He’s Mr. irrelevant and not some anointed future star. He will surely be a little nervous but he just went on the road a month ago for his first time and the 9ers handled the Hawks easily. He also benefits from 30+ touched combined from CMC, Mitchell, and Debo and none of them will be a pass beyond 5 yards. He really only has a read or 2 on any pass play at this point and he’s got a safe blanket in Kittle. Seattle pass rush stinks.

9ers definitely got the best draw possible. If Purdy throws 35 times something is wrong.
 
Inspekdah said:
Purdy is playing with fire a lot of the time but this is as good as a scenario you get for “playoff nerves” as possible. He’s Mr. irrelevant and not some anointed future star. He will surely be a little nervous but he just went on the road a month ago for his first time and the 9ers handled the Hawks easily. He also benefits from 30+ touched combined from CMC, Mitchell, and Debo and none of them will be a pass beyond 5 yards. He really only has a read or 2 on any pass play at this point and he’s got a safe blanket in Kittle. Seattle pass rush stinks.

9ers definitely got the best draw possible. If Purdy throws 35 times something is wrong.
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All Purdy Has To Do Is Hand The Ball Off And Dink And Dunk To McCaffrey, And 9ers Win This Easy.
 
Vapster said:
All Purdy Has To Do Is Hand The Ball Off And Dink And Dunk To McCaffrey, And 9ers Win This Easy.
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Now with Mitchell back to spell mccaffery there a decent chance niners run for 250! Niners have easily the best yac guys at every position so he just playing point guard. Niners d will eat geno alive without a run game to lean on. No disrespect to the guys who think fading them a good idea cause of purdy but I just don’t think he can do anything but succeed, he has handled the pressure of taking over the best team in the nfc just fine, he not gonna wilt against a team they gonna steamroll. I’ll get nervous about him when they go to Philly to play the only other real team in the nfc, amd that only if Philly/hurts are able to get back to what they were pre injury, they wernt that yesterday.
 
Inspekdah said:
Purdy is playing with fire a lot of the time but this is as good as a scenario you get for “playoff nerves” as possible. He’s Mr. irrelevant and not some anointed future star. He will surely be a little nervous but he just went on the road a month ago for his first time and the 9ers handled the Hawks easily. He also benefits from 30+ touched combined from CMC, Mitchell, and Debo and none of them will be a pass beyond 5 yards. He really only has a read or 2 on any pass play at this point and he’s got a safe blanket in Kittle. Seattle pass rush stinks.

9ers definitely got the best draw possible. If Purdy throws 35 times something is wrong.
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Everything about seattle d stinks, no pass rush, can’t stop the run, the secondary is ok but they couldn’t do anything with niners guys in the open field. I don’t see any path to seattle keeping this close.
 
Dallas down to under a fg now, guess that was inevitable. There no reason to take the points anyways, there isn’t a world where that a 3 point game and Dallas wins!!
 
The schedule could not have set up better for the Jags. Played last Saturday night and rinse, wash repeat for this Saturday.

Chargers played late Sunday with their starters and have a short week and on the road.
 
bones said:
The schedule could not have set up better for the Jags. Played last Saturday night and rinse, wash repeat for this Saturday.

Chargers played late Sunday with their starters and have a short week and on the road.
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Ill never understand why he played starters more than a qrtr or so? If ya wanna sell me on that I’d listen but anything more w a team who has bunch of guys who have struggled staying healthy was idiotic. Even worse they didn’t even get Everett his 5 catches to hit his bonus! He shoulda been only guy in and been getting force fed!! How pissed off you think he is today?
 
My book has conference finalists prop for Philly vs. SF at +180

This is a 3 game parlay with the Niners winning 2 and the Eagles winning 1. Someone talk me out of putting a max bet on this
 
dfresh said:
My book has conference finalists prop for Philly vs. SF at +180

This is a 3 game parlay with the Niners winning 2 and the Eagles winning 1. Someone talk me out of putting a max bet on this
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To me it seriously feels like you getting Philly to win 1 game +180 cause I really don’t think any team 3-7 has a chance in hell of beating San Fran. Obviously Philly gonna be favs, I think they gonna end up playing nyg, then it just a matter if Philly is back to what they were before Hurts injury or not? That team beats Gmen easy (as we saw before), the team who played their backups the other day would be a dog fight. As big of frauds everyone thinks Gmen are and while I agree to a extent I think there a real path to them making it to the nfc champ game, Vikings the bigger frauds so I think they beat them then it just a matter if Philly can regain what they had before Hurts went down? I don’t care what anyone thinks of purdy, niners are just flat out way better than any nfc 3-7 seed none of them going to San Fran and winning.
 

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings - EDSFootball.com

Our NFL strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season ranks teams based from the hardest to easiest schedule (SOS) based on the cumulative 2023 record of their opponents in 2024.
eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

This was a good tool last year in this round. I haven't verified the rankings but at first glance they look about right. I forget what the parameters were that I heard last year, I think I actually posted something on it then. But NYG catching points & rated much higher than Min would dictate a play.
 
Zeke said:

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings - EDSFootball.com

Our NFL strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season ranks teams based from the hardest to easiest schedule (SOS) based on the cumulative 2023 record of their opponents in 2024.
eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com

This was a good tool last year in this round. I haven't verified the rankings but at first glance they look about right. I forget what the parameters were that I heard last year, I think I actually posted something on it then. But NYG catching points & rated much higher than Min would dictate a play.
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I feel like we had a hell of a time figuring out what rankings to use cause we kept finding different ones but yea I think it did do well. If it says nyg over minny I’m on board cause I love that play, I don’t think Gmen nearly as big of frauds as Vikings are. Vikings d is total Swiss cheese, their qb mentally weak, take away one guy and you have them beat. Giants have better d, better coach, think they play harder, I don’t love Daniel Jones but against Vikings he had a monster game already and I do think giants have finally found a couple wrs who can get the job done in Janes and Hiodgins. Usually luck box teams like vikings luck runs out pretty quick in playoffs, if they beat me this week then I’ll bet the house against them when they go to San Fran cause they will get a tcu moment in that game!
 
Yeah especially, if they schedule Minn to go to SF on a short week like they did a few years ago playing a Sunday then Saturday. Different scenarios but result would be the same. Plugging Giants into a 13 pt teaser seems like the easiest of the tight lined games to tease IMO.
 
Zeke said:
Yeah especially, if they schedule Minn to go to SF on a short week like they did a few years ago playing a Sunday then Saturday. Different scenarios but result would be the same. Plugging Giants into a 13 pt teaser seems like the easiest of the tight lined games to tease IMO.
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Oh yea, if you going teaser route there no chance in hell giants lose by more than 2tds. I think it far more likely Vikings lost by multiple scores than win by that kind of margin. It prob be close just saying of those possibilities Vikings have proven they not above getting straight up waxed as they have in all 4 their losses, and we know how they won all their games, barely squeaking by!
 
I guess it should make me a tad nervous giants have only won 3 games since their week 9 bye? And those 3 wins are Texans, colts, and rematch w Washington. Lol.
 
I’m starting to get a bit nervous bout loving giants, it’s just the Vikings are so bad! They did squeak by Gmen on a 60 yard fg but giants led that game going into the 4th and put up 460 yards! Vikings scored 17 points in 4th to steal it but I don’t think a well coached team lets that happen again.
 
Just from what I have watched this year and why I like who I like (Afc included - yes I know this is the nfc thread)

Miami plus pts - A team Allen and the Bills have struggled some against this year. Dolphins will have confidence. QB scenario is a problem and I assume no Tua but if he plays the line is just too high.

Cinci - minus the pts. Teams going opposite directions. Bengals are with the chiefs in playing the best ball in the conference right now. Lamar if right, and he won't be, can make a difference and there is potential for a running clock to keep it close but I think bengals roll.

Jags plus the pts- I know chargers are more talented. I trust neither team. I love both QB's and trust neither QB's. I like both defenses and don't trust both defenses. Tough game. I guess homefield is worth something and maybe they matchup well given prior result this year.

Dallas minus the pts - I think the cowboys were mostly unmotivated and unprepared this past week. I think that QB performance will be tough to repeat for them this week. I realize the Dallas pass rush has been off the last month but TB oline can fix a lot of that. Just the better team. At what point are the Bucs just who they are?

Minny minus the pts - Not a believer in Minnesota but the giants rush defense sucks and if minny is balanced, I cannot see giants winning

Sea plus the pts - Purdy, divisional opponent, decent enough backdoor offense.

ML predictions - Buffalo, Bengals, Jags, Cowboys, Vikings, Niners

We know there will be upsets in here if it is like a normal year but I only have the jags pulling one off and it hardly even counts. Of Buffalo, Bengals and Niners, I believe Buffalo is the most vulnerable and Bengals the least vulnerable.


Fandom
I probably won't watch the Bills Bengals playoff game if it happens. I love that Damar is healthy. I love it. I just want to watch football now and don't want all of that rehashed again.

I am praying that we get an advance by Minnesota. I find the Giants the least entertaining team to watch in the NFL.

My whole house is filled with cowboy fans. I will start cheering for them but I wonder what I will be feeling during the game. I love Brady now which is an odd thing considering the tuck rule.

There are some epic matchups in line for the conference championships if we get Philly vs SF and any two of the three (cinci, Buff and kc) in the AFC. I certainly hope we don't see the ravens or giants or dolphins in those games.
 
Not only has Dallas d turned to shit the last 4 games they rushing for 3.2 a carry!! I really don’t want to bet tampa, they suck, they averaged 18 points a game in a league it should be easy to score 20!! They can’t run, Brady throws 50 4 yard passes a game, the d doesn’t play hungry like they did the SB year, there really not much to like but Dallas on the road as favs? How can ya do anything but take tampa ml?
 
2daBank said:
Not only has Dallas d turned to shit the last 4 games they rushing for 3.2 a carry!! I really don’t want to bet tampa, they suck, they averaged 18 points a game in a league it should be easy to score 20!! They can’t run, Brady throws 50 4 yard passes a game, the d doesn’t play hungry like they did the SB year, there really not much to like but Dallas on the road as favs? How can ya do anything but take tampa ml?
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I think cowboys have a nice edge at FG kicker. I see where you are coming from and the line movement has certainly agrees. The only position groups I give the nod to bucs on are wide receivers and qb. Line of scrimmage should belong to cowboys.
 
RetroVK said:
I think cowboys have a nice edge at FG kicker. I see where you are coming from and the line movement has certainly agrees. The only position groups I give the nod to bucs on are wide receivers and qb. Line of scrimmage should belong to cowboys.
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It should and believe me in no way do I think bucs are better than Dallas, that what makes this so hard. I don’t even trust Dallas defensive front to get home, at one point they were on pace to break sack records and they didn’t even finish w the most sacks (I don’t think), that grass in Raymond James stadium gonna be nice and thick, Dallas d never as good on grass, they look much better on fast tracks. Far as I know Whirfs is playing, think the other tackle might go, if bucs can get Jensen back at center think that might be enough to push me over the edge, I still don’t like it, just think all bucs problems are still the lessor of 2 evils compared to the choke artist I know this Dallas team to be.
 
2daBank said:
It should and believe me in no way do I think bucs are better than Dallas, that what makes this so hard. I don’t even trust Dallas defensive front to get home, at one point they were on pace to break sack records and they didn’t even finish w the most sacks (I don’t think), that grass in Raymond James stadium gonna be nice and thick, Dallas d never as good on grass, they look much better on fast tracks. Far as I know Whirfs is playing, think the other tackle might go, if bucs can get Jensen back at center think that might be enough to push me over the edge, I still don’t like it, just think all bucs problems are still the lessor of 2 evils compared to the choke artist I know this Dallas team to be.
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If Brady and the Bucs win, I obviously don't bat an eye. I think only a ravens win would really shock me this week, it's the NFL.

The Monday night aspect of the game is interesting too and a disadvantage to whoever wins the game.
 
RetroVK said:
If Brady and the Bucs win, I obviously don't bat an eye. I think only a ravens win would really shock me this week, it's the NFL.

The Monday night aspect of the game is interesting too and a disadvantage to whoever wins the game.
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Seattle even staying within 10 would shock me, ravens winning would really shock me. That bout it.
 
scarf31 said:
THIS is the angle people are ignoring. I agree 100%. Rookie QB in a 1st playoff start? Historically it’s an auto fade spot for me..:It’s just not a spot I want to be laying DD with the fave. Not sure where this number goes but it goes up from 10, I’ll gamble on the Seabags and the points
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It is something like 45% of rookie QBs won their first game. In this case, given Seattle is swiss cheese....McCaffrey...Deebo...Kittle.... I find it hard he will lay an egg because Shanahan won't put it on him.
 
RetroVK said:
The Monday night aspect of the game is interesting too and a disadvantage to whoever wins the game.
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The real question with everyone and their dogs on 5 teams, and two of them have byes...given history which of the Bengals, Niners or Bills will lose SU this weekend

The amount of Bills/Niners/Bengals teasers will be off the roof
 
KJ said:
The real question with everyone and their dogs on 5 teams, and two of them have byes...given history which of the Bengals, Niners or Bills will lose SU this weekend

The amount of Bills/Niners/Bengals teasers will be off the roof
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I don’t think this season gonna fall in line w history, these lower seeds this year are really trash. Had a team like lions got in maybe, usually one these lower seeds comes in hot or has something going for them, all these teams limped in and none of them really worthy of being here. Bengals would be the most likely cause ravens a proven commodity and 3rd time playing a div rival and all but I just can’t believe Cincy gonna let this season end to a team incapable of scoring 17 points.
 
It really not my nature to like favs and prob love this weekend most years cause there are upsets, I just don’t see them this time around. I mean Gmen and tampa but neither of those surprising anyone. Beats me, maybe Tua plays and bills are emotionally spent?
 
I don’t trust Shanny. Think Sea could surprise them. See that as most likely of the 3 (Balt, Mia or Sea), although still don’t love it. Mia and Balt can’t do it without Tua/Lamar. Need Walker to be healthy and Pete to feed him to open up some throws for Geno. A mistake or two from Purdy and we have a game.
 
Just an FYI the SF game should get a pretty good amount of rain with the early forecast. We've been getting a lot of rain lately so the field could be sloppy. Friday night should have a better picture of what the weather will be like.
 
Early Public teams (+60% of bets) in NFL Wild Card at @BetMGM

91% of bets on Bengals -6.5
79% on Bills -10.5
77% on 49ers -10
68% on Chargers -1
63% on Vikings -3
 
I really like Dallas this weekend. Just played at -2 -120. I think the media and everyone else is being a little harsh on this team. Yes, Dak has been inconsistent and turnover prone, but they still had a great season. They had a much better season with a much harder SOS than Bucs. If Dak somehow puts it together they will curb stomp this shitty Bucs team. Even if he doesn’t they have enough to win IMO.
 
C-MAN said:
I really like Dallas this weekend. Just played at -2 -120. I think the media and everyone else is being a little harsh on this team. Yes, Dak has been inconsistent and turnover prone, but they still had a great season. They had a much better season with a much harder SOS than Bucs. If Dak somehow puts it together they will curb stomp this shitty Bucs team. Even if he doesn’t they have enough to win IMO.
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Agree 100%.
 
C-MAN said:
I really like Dallas this weekend. Just played at -2 -120. I think the media and everyone else is being a little harsh on this team. Yes, Dak has been inconsistent and turnover prone, but they still had a great season. They had a much better season with a much harder SOS than Bucs. If Dak somehow puts it together they will curb stomp this shitty Bucs team. Even if he doesn’t they have enough to win IMO.
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They clearly had a better season but that not often who wins these games. I agree they could curb stomp bucs but I don’t think they will. I think you pretty much have to count on Dak throwing 1-2 bad picks cause when bucs want to they can stop the run and Dallas has not been running it well at all the last month. If Dak throwing 30+ passes you have to assume he gonna make at least one awful throw if not 2. As bad bucs been I saw Brady throw for 400+ not to long ago, if Dallas can’t get to him, which they havnt been getting to qb lately, I could see him do it again against a shaky secondary outside diggs. I dunno, I don’t trust either one these teams I just more inclined to take plus money with the qb I’ve seen win playoff games most my adult life vs a team that been total chokers this entire century. For me it comes down to I can just live with myself more losing on Brady than I could losing backing Dallas.
 
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2daBank said:
They clearly had a better season but that not often who wins these games. I agree they could curb stomp bucs but I don’t think they will. I think you pretty much have to count on Dak throwing 1-2 bad picks cause when bucs want to they can stop the run and Dallas has not been running it well at all the last month. If Dak throwing 30+ passes you have to assume he gonna make at least one awful throw if not 2. As bad bucs been I saw Brady throw for 400+ not to long ago, if Dallas can’t get to him, which they havnt been getting to qb lately, I could see him do it again against a shaky secondary outside diggs. I dunno, I don’t trust either one these teams I just more inclined to take plus money with the qb I’ve seen win playoff games most my adult life vs a team that been total chokers this entire century. To me it just comes down to I can just live with myself more losing on Brady than I could losing backing Dallas.
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They are both very much fade teams as are the Giants. And that's not to say I like the Viking because they would be a fade as well but in these positions, of the 4, I see the Vikings as having the best chance to win this weekend. Pretty bad slate of games in the NFC, not sure I bet any one of the three games before beore they start.
 
KJ said:
They are both very much fade teams as are the Giants. And that's not to say I like the Viking because they would be a fade as well but in these positions, of the 4, I see the Vikings as having the best chance to win this weekend. Pretty bad slate of games in the NFC, not sure I bet any one of the three games before beore they start.
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The nfc side is freaking awful, that the only reason I have no concerns about Purdy anytime before a potential trip to Philly, 3-7 is such trash i could play qb for niners!

The giants have kinda grown on me but I totally get why you disagree, it doesn’t take much for me to question my resolve w them, since their week 9 bye they won 3 games against Houston, colts, Washington!! Lmao. I just think Vikings are the best possible matchup for them, their defense is so damn pitiful they allowed Jones to throw for 300+! I can’t help but fade a defense that bad. I think Gmen can get some pressure on cousins and I’d think figure out a way to bracket Jefferson. I gotta roll giants, I’ll prob go ml and back it up with a teaser since I don’t think any chance they lose by more than a score. Somehow I’ve convinced myself Philly might be in trouble against nyg, like I see a path for these frauds to get to the nfc champ game and yes I agree they are frauds, the nfc just so bad, I thought they had 2 real teams but I’m real worried the eagles peaked too early and won’t get it back so niners the only team in nfc I trust. I’d take the winner of jags/chargers to get to nfc championship game in a heartbeat!!
 
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