NFC Divisional Round: New Orleans @ Minnesota

Vikings win this game by double digits relatively easily---

Saints offense is a rhythm offence- They can run and pass the ball- They can dominate vs teams with Mentally weak coaches such as jeff fisher ron rivera- Coaches who just show up but don't look at film or understand the x's and o's--

This week they are going against the opposite of Carolina- Carolina plays defence that stops the cellar dwellers. they leave receivers open all day, and the bad quarterbacks cannot find the open guys--

Yesterday PEYTON easily out coached Rivera-- and burned them for a few big long plays--

This week ZIMMER is going to take away MICHAEL THOMAS- He will do this and he will attack BREES--

I don't see the Saints have any success vs this defense-- They are too good at home and will dominate the matchups--

Vikings offense is good at home-
Theielen and Diggs will get open, Rudolph will get some grabs-

I see Vikes winning a match somewhere in the range of 24-11


This is a CLASSIC BAR play-- Betting on a team in a bad spot-
 
I will take ZIMMER over Peyton--

Peyton's coaching will be exposed this weekend-- What plays is he going to call when his #1 WR can't beat the college level DBS of carolina-

Peyton will be outcoached-- He is going to either run the ball all game long with no success or lose or let Brees throw every play and lose that way--

HE will lack any balance or any intelligent play calls- He has lost it as a coach--

Perhaps PEYTON pulled a LINCOLN RILEY as well? AND said fuck it 4TH AND 2- LETS GO FOR IT, 2 O LINEMAN ARE OUT- MIGHT AS WELL LOSE THIS WEEK INSTEAD OF NEXT WEEK?

When you start TO THINK ABOUT IT- IT MAKES SENSE--

Saints with everyone healthy were still not the best team-- WITH NO ANDREWS PEAT and TONY MCDANIEL the VAUNTED O LINE is now a LIABILITY-- PEYTON knew the season was over, once these 2 guys were hurt--
Perhaps this is why the strange decision-- Physiologically he knows they can't go far, so might as well just quickly lose to CAROLINA?
Sure looked like PEYTON was trying to give that game away --

Lincoln Riley of Oklahoma did the same thing-- He knew Alabama would run all over them 65-14-- So he figures ok take ball out of mayfield hands, and lets start playing to lose
 
Intriguing game. Lean Vikings as they are the better team with a better coach but its tough to trust Keenum here, though he has proven everyone wrong all season.

Also the home field advantage here will be significant. These fans have been waiting a while for this.

Wild to think that if Saints win, and Falcons advance, New Orleans could go from the Wild Card round to the super bowl and never have to step foot outside....
 
Whats with the cat fetish boys? Yikes.

Agree with Maneke Neko on the Vikings. Better team. Better coach. Playing at home with rest. Two worries.

1. Game is still indoors.
2. Keenum never played in this spot. The rams game last week sticks in my head as a team that wasnt ready for the moment. Is Minny?
 
Doggy, my man.

Yep, better QB wins in these spots more often than not.

Has Aaron Rodgers vs Dak Prescott circa-2016/17 playoffs feel about it, granted the Cows didn't have the best defense behind them.

But still...
 
scdoggy said:
Whats with the cat fetish boys? Yikes.

Agree with Maneke Neko on the Vikings. Better team. Better coach. Playing at home with rest. Two worries.

1. Game is still indoors.
2. Keenum never played in this spot. The rams game last week sticks in my head as a team that wasnt ready for the moment. Is Minny?
Click to expand...

You never know how a qb will respond in playoff pressure. Guys like Goff Alex Smith certainly didn’t match the playoff intensity.

However there is something with this Keenan character that seems a bit Kurt Warner esque.

He is very underrated. I believe he is the best in the. Nfl throwing on the run. Bad qbs aren’t good at throwing on the run.
The guy looks like he is playing with a chip on his shoulder.

What concerns for the entire NFC is that teams like Atlanta minny eagles are perennial chokers. And we saw from Atlanta last year and then Georgia that certain cities just choke.

I have to believe that if any of these teams somehow meet the patriots the matchup is essentially not a football matchup.
It’s a matchup of championship city vs a city that never wins anything.

Could be the most important factor in handicapping these games.
 
emkee said:
Doggy, my man.

Yep, better QB wins in these spots more often than not.

Has Aaron Rodgers vs Dak Prescott circa-2016/17 playoffs feel about it, granted the Cows didn't have the best defense behind them.

But still...
Click to expand...


Better qb often can win but it’s more about the entire team. If your looking at a game where it would come down to picking the better qb I believe that game is Atlanta vs eagles.

Eagles aren’t a dominant run team. They dint have an elite defense. They need good play from their quarterback to win.

I see Matt Ryan vs Nick Foles as a big mismatch.

Mart Ryan is peaking. Playing very well. Foles sucks.

Bortles also sucks but he has the elite defense on his side. So hard to fade Bortles.
 
Zeke said:
I would be more confident about Minnesota's chances if I haven't been a Vikes fan for like 40 fucking years.
Click to expand...


For a team like minny to win it it’s simple.

They can’t exoect to show up and wiln the super bowl in tight games.

If they play in tight games the choke factor will occur and a bad decision or bad defense will prevent them from winning.

To win as an underdog city that never wins you have to win the super Bowl in s blowout like Seattle did vs Denver

Both Seattle and atlanta has big leads vs patriots in the second half and still lost.

To win it teams like minny have to be up like 27-6 entering the fourth and then keep agggressive. They need to stretch that score to 34-6 and keep scoring.

Otherwise they will choke and lose
 
Emkee - good to see you bro.

I cant back Atl here. Honestly think Philly may cover but not enough to play it.

Afc games are tough. Maybe over in Foxboro, under in Yinzerville but those would be as square as they come. Jags may actually score some pts in this one. Bortles getting a little too much hate coming off the Bills game.
 
I believe nfl teams should employ consultants from Mit schools who understand mathematics and could give them in game advice on how to handle a lead and the percentages and probabilities of winning if they decide to go conservative.

This person employed would have pleaded with Dan Quinn that the super bowl is theirs. All they needed was Matt Bryant to kick the late fgoal. Instead they were so horny and so uneducated and started calling long developing pass plays.

These coaches are football players.
Hence they are not too smart.

They need more intellligent ppl consulting them because these coaches are not smart people.
 
scdoggy said:
Whats with the cat fetish boys? Yikes.

Agree with Maneke Neko on the Vikings. Better team. Better coach. Playing at home with rest. Two worries.

1. Game is still indoors.
2. Keenum never played in this spot. The rams game last week sticks in my head as a team that wasnt ready for the moment. Is Minny?
Click to expand...

Tons more experience with this squad than the Rams. First real playoff game (maybe first actual playoff game) for Case, but virtually everyone else on the roster has seen the playoffs before.

We have to open the offense back up like we saw 2/3 of the way through the season when we played @ WAS/ATL/CAR. The offense hasn't needed to show much against doormats like CIN/GB/CHI to end the season - that's my real worry. Just coasting along and letting the defense win the game. I think the D will be ready though. They play so well at home on that side of the ball.
 
NO rush defense is problematic here, especially if they get behind. Murray has looked very good at the end of the year and is the type of pound the rock power back that the Vikings can depend on to control clock and move the chains. X Rhodes has really been a shut down corner and likely will shadow Thomas. NO off line beat up a little bit but Brees is good against the blitz and doesn't take many sacks only 20 on the year. I figure Ginn needs to have a big game for NO and they need help from Coleman and Kamara to be able to sustain some offensive success. I'm kind of torn on this one and think its going to be a close game. Minn home, great defense and rested may be able to squeak out the win here, but not sure about covering.
 
Saints D in general not impressing me lately. Starting a DE they just signed, lot of guys out, gave up big points and yards to TB and Carolina. They are attractive getting over 3 but I think Minny wins the game and they pressure Brees a lot.
 
Leaned Saints originally, but the line movement has me spooked. Never thought the opener at 3.5 would move, much less up to 5. I realize the public is right a decent percentage of the time, but seems they are begging for Saint money. If someone would have told me last Friday that the Vikings would be a 5 point fav in this game, I would have taken it (Saints) no questions asked. Maybe I'm over-thinking things.
 
pb278817 said:
QBs making their first playoff start vs qbs with 10 or more playoff starts are 2-8 last 10
Click to expand...
Why would you think that is relevant here? QB's that make 10 or more playoff starts play on very good teams. Like New England. Or Pittsburgh. How many QB's beat Tom Brady in the playoffs no matter what number start they are making?
 
kdog said:
Why would you think that is relevant here? QB's that make 10 or more playoff starts play on very good teams. Like New England. Or Pittsburgh. How many QB's beat Tom Brady in the playoffs no matter what number start they are making?
Click to expand...
I hear ya, after I posted it I realized it’s a pretty dumb stat

Should look into what these matches were but too lazy
 
Nawlins with injury concerns but they're still the livest dog of the weekend along with Jax.

Peat, McDaniel and Coleman are some big injuries from last week.
 
Saints are playing their 14th straight game now (as did ATL) and to me it's apparent that the defense is a bit fatigued.

Props to the Saints for what they have done defensively as a whole this season but last 2 games Winston threw for over 360 with 2 wr 7 catches over 100 yds 31 points allowed. Cam shredded them 2ndh 26 pts allowed. 29 pts allowed week 1 vs Minny so 25 team total where it should be. I would smash o24 had it been the line but that's still one scary number. The Vikings are perfectly capable of sitting on the ball 2ndh should they gain a sizeable lead.
 
NO 0-3 last 3 road games, with defense trending downward. That being said giving Brees that many points is scary.
 
Another case of top 2 offence vs a top 2 defence. Almost always won by the defence. But not sure ats or mov
 
I think this game is much less about Keenum and much more about the run game. Murray & McKinnon are up against a soft run defense and this has TOP all over it. Vikings defense has no weakness and while folks are pointing to Jaguars as a top defense they can be exposed in the run game. I realize post-Dareus it has gotten better, but the Vikings truly have the best unit on the field today.

Going back to Keenum, the Vikings are not relying on him for points. He put up big numbers here and there but let's not forget the offensive scheme is short, quick decision based routes. They don't need Keenum to sling it and it is the same reason Bradford had success. There is not a ton of pressure on the QB to win the game. That is entirely because of the defense.

All of this said now, it just boils down to what you want to believe will happen. Saints offense beats the Vikings defense or vice versa. I don't think Vikings offense v. Saints defense is the story here meaning who cares about Brees v. Keenum as they don't play directly against each other.

Both teams have comparable rushing attacks in terms of ypg, but Vikings RD is significantly superior here. Shift into the passing game and clearly an advantage to Brees/Saints here but Vikings PD is again far superior to the Saints.

Vikings run v. Saints RD = Vikings
Vikings pass v. Saints PD = Saints
Saints run v. Vikings RD = Vikings
Saints pass v. Vikings PD = Vikings

Not large margins above mind you, but in 3 of the 4 matchups I am giving Vikings the edge. I'm probably not going to play this one necessarily since I have both of their futures from pre-season, but this is what I saw.
 
Not that I know what it means but oddsmakers are virtually lining next week's game at Philly evenly between NO and Minny...it's interesting given the 5.5 line and I understand that has influence from the potential QB matchups but still
 
Yeah this is nuts considering every other book is sitting at 5.5...62% wagers on the Saints

Bovada - New Orleans NO VS Minnesota MIN

POINT SPREADS
TIME NO MIN
01/14 10:22 AM +4 -105 -4 -115
01/13 10:58 PM +4 +100 -4 -120
01/13 01:41 PM +4 +105 -4 -125
01/13 01:05 AM +4 +100 -4 -120
01/13 12:40 AM +4 -105 -4 -115
01/11 10:16 PM +4 +100 -4 -120
01/11 09:23 AM +4 +105 -4 -125
01/10 10:43 PM +4 +100 -4 -120
01/10 08:49 PM +4 +105 -4 -125
01/10 05:02 PM +4 +100 -4 -120
01/10 12:46 PM +4 -105 -4 -115
01/07 08:54 PM +4 -115 -4 -105
 
That is odd although the Saints are a big public dog today. I'm seeing 70% of the tickets going their way but with a smaller avg bet size.
 
For those into that type of thing... The bets be are on N.O. but the money is on Minny.
 
I'd figure there is buyback coming on the Saints. Line prolly settles around 4.5 at game time.
 
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