Week One (Regular Season) Discussion

Early thoughts

I think the Lions can keep up with the Chiefs. I hope I can get 7 before kick.

I would love to take the Bengals in basically a pickem but I want to see Joe play first.

Pitt will be a lively team this year. Kenny Pickett looks like he has taken another step forward. They have weapons on offense. Niners look like they may take some time to gel on defense. I think I would want more than a FG though to get involved.

Minny giving up a TD? Hmm seems like a bit of an overreaction to TB12 being retired.

Kinda like the Panthers as a dog vs Atl here. I do not trust or like Ridder. Could be wrong but its just a gut feeling after watching him last year.

Ravens should name their score vs the Texans, but will they?. Hearing really good things about the new offensive scheme in Baltimore.

Jags getting a lot of respect right off the bat. This is one I will watch closely. If Richardson can play the Colts will be a sneaky good team.

Liking the Saints to come out of the gates strong. I hope this drops to 3 at some point. This line has dropped steadily and I think the Titans are getting too much love.

Dolphins/Chargers could be a barn burner. Hearing tons of great reports about the new Chargers offensive scheme. I think Herbert finally gets the blinders taken off this year and it will be fun to watch.

Kinda like the Packers as a dog here. I think Love is going to surprise people this year. Huge benefit to be able to sit back and watch Rodgers all those years.

The Broncos are getting way too much respect. Until Russ can prove to me his legs are not cooked I will be looking to fade early and often. Raiders can keep up here.

New England a home dog on opening day? My how the turns have tabled? Will watch this game closely. Mac Jones with a real coordinator will be of interest to me.

Giants are kinda appealing as a home dog. I cant stand Mike Mccarthy.

Jets are only +1.5 to the Bills? Looks like an overreaction to ARod and Hard Knocks.
 
2daBank said:
I think he was a great pickup for them. In the NFC he looks like one the better qbs, easy to get lost in the shuffle in the loaded AFC. Plus ya’ll got some great weapons! I put saints right behind niners and eagles as one the best teams in the nfc!
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Funny I think it's actually the Lions year to win a playoff game or two, surprised they aren't being more talked about. Weak division and possibly the best offense in the NFC
 
KJ said:
Funny I think it's actually the Lions year to win a playoff game or two, surprised they aren't being more talked about. Weak division and possibly the best offense in the NFC
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I think lions be a playoff team, think I like saints better tho. Saints div easier than nfc north imo.
 
That said Carr is an obvious upgrade but I can see that defense struggling against bad teams
 
KJ said:
I'm not as sold on Saints as virtually everyone else seems to be. They better win the shittiest division in football, might win it with a losing record
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I be shocked if they don’t win that division. Seems like lot of ppl high on atl, I can’t buy a team with Ridder playing qb!! Far as I can tell their d still gonna suck and not like Ridder gonna put up lot of points. Saints look loaded to me!
 
2daBank said:
I be shocked if they don’t win that division. Seems like lot of ppl high on atl, I can’t buy a team with Ridder playing qb!! Far as I can tell their d still gonna suck and not like Ridder gonna put up lot of points. Saints look loaded to me!
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They look loaded to everyone

That's why I gotta try to tear them down and defense is pretty easy to tear down
 
KJ said:
That said Carr is an obvious upgrade but I can see that defense struggling against bad teams
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Offense loaded tho. Love the wrs if Thomas healthy, liked the addition of Williams to give kumara some help, replace him while he suspended. Olave gonna be a beast, AT Perry has looked really good. Their d has been pretty good, did they lose a lot?
 
KJ said:
They look loaded to everyone

That's why I gotta try to tear them down and defense is pretty easy to tear down
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I feel like lions getting as much love as saints. I hear lot of falcons love that I don’t get. Lions everyone darlings ain’t they??
 
Don’t get me wrong I like lions also. I think gibbs gonna put up pretty big numbers catching balls out of backfield!
 
2daBank said:
I feel like lions getting as much love as saints. I hear lot of falcons love that I don’t get. Lions everyone darlings ain’t they??
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FWIW I've heard virtually no Lions or Falcons love but I'm in Phx

Maybe a Midwest thing? Saints love is everywhere, most projected team outside the Jets here
 
Lions are the darling of darlings. Everyone thinks it’s a 11-12 win team. They probably are.

Saints are better tho, in my opinion.
 
Inspekdah said:
Lions are the darling of darlings. Everyone thinks it’s a 11-12 win team. They probably are.

Saints are better tho, in my opinion.
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I don't hear one person talking about the Lions but I haven't heard one person bragging about the NFC North in general

Strong offense. I don't play fantasy but I would be happy with drafting players from that team

It's Saints and Niners in the NFC but with Purdy arm curiosity it's mostly Saints as the darlings
 
KJ said:
I don't hear one person talking about the Lions but I haven't heard one person bragging about the NFC North in general

Strong offense. I don't play fantasy but I would be happy with drafting players from that team

It's Saints and Niners in the NFC but with Purdy arm curiosity it's mostly Saints as the darlings
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Purdy has looked fantastic last week.
 
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Jax and Chargers are the buzz in AFC

Personally think it should be centered around Baltimore and Pitt but they are on the low which is odd because I live very close to a massive Steeler fan base
 
KJ said:
Jax and Chargers are the buzz in AFC

Personally think it should be centered around Baltimore and Pitt but they are on the low which is odd because I live very close to a massive Steeler fan base
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Afc north is so loaded. Someone gonna have to have a down year but I dunno who? Obviously browns could be bad, but if watson ever gets back to his old self they could be good! Can’t see bengals, ravens, or Steelers being bad. Crazy.

Ppl love the chargers every year, I’ll continue having my doubts as long as that idiot Staley is the coach! Although I do think bringing on Kellen Moore as OC could help a great deal. Jags should be good, adding Ridley to the offense should make them incredibly tough to stop! Plus they play in the only bad division in afc, things would have to go horribly wrong for them not to run away with south.

I been hearing lions love for last 2 years, can’t believe you don’t? Not that I disagree, I like their offense also, I think the nfc north might be a bit tougher than ppl think. The cast around Love is pretty dang good in GB, Vikings won’t win every one score game this year but they still a competitive team, you would think bears improve a little at least but don’t have much hope for them. That still better than nfc south, crazy to me but falcons getting tons of love, think I saw their win total all way up to 8.5! Can’t believe ppl are betttng them to be above .500, I don’t see it.
 
Well if I knew if starters performance in preseason actually had a correlation to week 1....it would make it easier. Example falcons panthers....prior to preseason I would take the better qb. (Bryce young). Post preseason you can say atlanta has the significantly better oline and the better defense. Panthers d has looked bad.
 
EL CAPO said:
Well if I knew if starters performance in preseason actually had a correlation to week 1....it would make it easier. Example falcons panthers....prior to preseason I would take the better qb. (Bryce young). Post preseason you can say atlanta has the significantly better oline and the better defense. Panthers d has looked bad.
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I think Panthers underwent a massive coaching downgrade in terms of chemistry and morale.
 
Inspekdah said:
I think Panthers underwent a massive coaching downgrade in terms of chemistry and morale.
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Kinda agree...panthers had some momentum and some sneaky spread concepts and gelling with their oline late in the year blowing out lions etc. Not sure how big the change is but reich is pretty blah

Really we should be laying atlanta....only caveat is atlanta is a team I think will be very profitable fading as a favorite. Ridder isn't gonna blow teams out.

Hook may be critical here...when's the last time atlanta covered 3.5...when they beat the 49ers
 
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EL CAPO said:
Kinda agree...panthers had some momentum and some sneaky spread concepts and gelling with their oline late in the year blowing out lions etc. Not sure how big the change is but reich is pretty blah

Really we should be laying atlanta....only caveat is atlanta is a team I think will be very profitable fading as a favorite. Ridder isn't gonna blow teams out.

Hook may be critical here...when's the last time atlanta covered 3.5...when they beat the 49ers
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Only difference I see is I actually think Ridder will win close games. That's obviously going to be an unpopular opinion round here
 
2daBank said:
Offense loaded tho. Love the wrs if Thomas healthy, liked the addition of Williams to give kumara some help, replace him while he suspended. Olave gonna be a beast, AT Perry has looked really good. Their d has been pretty good, did they lose a lot?
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No. In fact the defense should be better and it was already pretty good. They cut some really bad weight on the D line, let guys walk and sign in the division.
The defensive backfield should be up there with the premier ones. LB is thin but talented, just not much depth. Everything else is top shelf
 
I have a hard time thinking Stroud will be able to keep Houston close. Ravens offense I don't think is gelling at all but Lamar should be able to improvise a couple of big plays to cover 10.

I'm not sure Richardson can keep Colts close unless he has been holding back his legs and plans to run for 150 yards.

Vikes shouldn't be -6.5 vs. anyone but I feel like Kirk has had solid openers.

9ers win if Bosa is back in the fold, but if not Steelers could pull an upset. I expect points if no Bosa as 9ers should be able to move the ball.

Commanders/Cardinals - yuck. Under.

Lean Packers - Fields to me is a bigger bust than Lance.

Raiders! Good dline should present problems for Wilson. I trust Jimmy to have this team ready to roll.

Bolts/Fish - didn't these teams play on SNF or something last year? Think I lost and took the Fish.

Eagles/Pats - feel like Eagles win this game. Mobile QB, elite defense, but who knows. Pass.

Hawks/Rams - yuck.

Boys/Giants - Giants regress big time. Boys easy here.

Bills/Jets - impossible to predict.
 
Pats are likely the worst offense in the AFC outside the South and butt chin calling plays should highlight that
 
KJ said:
Thing is they need Edelman and Welker types to succeed and they don't have one

Juju certainly isn't that guy
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Yeah, they'd be wise to trade for a Kupp or at least a Renfrow to give Mac any shot at success.
 
John Harbaugh 11-4 ATS in week one. It's tough to lay double digits in the NFL but this seems to be an ideal spot. Harbaugh has no problem running up the score; make a statement, get Lamar and the new contract off to a good start; and Stroud making his first start.
 
Inspekdah said:
I have a hard time thinking Stroud will be able to keep Houston close. Ravens offense I don't think is gelling at all but Lamar should be able to improvise a couple of big plays to cover 10.

I'm not sure Richardson can keep Colts close unless he has been holding back his legs and plans to run for 150 yards.

Vikes shouldn't be -6.5 vs. anyone but I feel like Kirk has had solid openers.

9ers win if Bosa is back in the fold, but if not Steelers could pull an upset. I expect points if no Bosa as 9ers should be able to move the ball.

Commanders/Cardinals - yuck. Under.

Lean Packers - Fields to me is a bigger bust than Lance.

Raiders! Good dline should present problems for Wilson. I trust Jimmy to have this team ready to roll.

Bolts/Fish - didn't these teams play on SNF or something last year? Think I lost and took the Fish.

Eagles/Pats - feel like Eagles win this game. Mobile QB, elite defense, but who knows. Pass.

Hawks/Rams - yuck.

Boys/Giants - Giants regress big time. Boys easy here.

Bills/Jets - impossible to predict.
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Why do you think giants regress? 2nd year under Daboll who i think a proven very good offensive mind, bills havnt looked nearly as good on offense since he left! He did wonders with Jones his 1st year imo and got him a few more toys to work with this season. They could still really use a big time wr on outside but I fully expect him to get the most out of Waller who when healthy I think is one the best te’s in the league. Another year and better weapons I fully expect Danny dimes to take another step in the right direction. Imo giants are on the rise, no chance do I see regression with them. I actually love getting the +3.5 on opening night, if either those teams takin a step back I think it Dallas. McCarthy calling the plays instead of Moore is a downgrade imo. Dallas known for being sloppy so mccarthy answer to that? Don’t get anyone preseason reps! Lol. Think we can pretty much bank on a bunch of pre snap penalties for cowboys and Dak prob throw a pick or 2! I’ll happily be on the home dog.

-7 a lot to lay with commanders but I have pretty high hopes for their offense. I like Howell, assuming McLaurin is healthy after pulling up with a injury before halftime of the ravens game (havnt heard any updates on him), i like their weapons, fully expect Bienemy to be a aggressive play caller. Commanders secondary looked awful in preseason but they should have the benefit of a really good pass rush which should help! Again have to see if young and everyone healthy leading into week 1. Still dunno if I can lay -7?

I liked the idea of playing colts but not with the Taylor stuff going on, assuming he won’t be playing. What a shit run team that is, starting a rookie qb and won’t pay their beast RB who only 24!!?!!?!! Just dumb. I really don’t think AR-15 is ready to start but I do think they have a perfect offense implemented for him, it would just be a lot better with Taylor!! Colts roster isn’t bad, they just shooting themselves in the foot with this Taylor ordeal.
 
Some random double digit favorite on week 1 info:

- since 2012, there have been only 6 instances, 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS
- this is meaningless but going back to 1990, there have been 26 DD favorites on week one, ten of those 26 were -10
- double digit favorites are on a 13 game winning streak dating back to 2004; survivor pools will get massacred if the Texans pull off the upset
 
Colin Wynner said:
John Harbaugh 11-4 ATS in week one. It's tough to lay double digits in the NFL but this seems to be an ideal spot. Harbaugh has no problem running up the score; make a statement, get Lamar and the new contract off to a good start; and Stroud making his first start.
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Yeah for some reason this one has 34-0 written all over it. Thing with the Ravens is it seems like they either blow teams out or don't cover. I don't remember many games that were close to the number. I'm sure that's completely overly simplifying it but for me if I think they win, I'm betting on them to cover.
 
2daBank said:
Why do you think giants regress? 2nd year under Daboll who i think a proven very good offensive mind, bills havnt looked nearly as good on offense since he left! He did wonders with Jones his 1st year imo and got him a few more toys to work with this season. They could still really use a big time wr on outside but I fully expect him to get the most out of Waller who when healthy I think is one the best te’s in the league. Another year and better weapons I fully expect Danny dimes to take another step in the right direction. Imo giants are on the rise, no chance do I see regression with them. I actually love getting the +3.5 on opening night, if either those teams takin a step back I think it Dallas. McCarthy calling the plays instead of Moore is a downgrade imo. Dallas known for being sloppy so mccarthy answer to that? Don’t get anyone preseason reps! Lol. Think we can pretty much bank on a bunch of pre snap penalties for cowboys and Dak prob throw a pick or 2! I’ll happily be on the home dog.

-7 a lot to lay with commanders but I have pretty high hopes for their offense. I like Howell, assuming McLaurin is healthy after pulling up with a injury before halftime of the ravens game (havnt heard any updates on him), i like their weapons, fully expect Bienemy to be a aggressive play caller. Commanders secondary looked awful in preseason but they should have the benefit of a really good pass rush which should help! Again have to see if young and everyone healthy leading into week 1. Still dunno if I can lay -7?

I liked the idea of playing colts but not with the Taylor stuff going on, assuming he won’t be playing. What a shit run team that is, starting a rookie qb and won’t pay their beast RB who only 24!!?!!?!! Just dumb. I really don’t think AR-15 is ready to start but I do think they have a perfect offense implemented for him, it would just be a lot better with Taylor!! Colts roster isn’t bad, they just shooting themselves in the foot with this Taylor ordeal.
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Dallas beat the G men with their backup. I think having 3 legit WRs this will be their best team since the 90s by a wide margin. Daboll did do wonders but that schedule was an absolute joke and they never competed for a minute vs. Eagles and Cowboys whooped them good on Thanksgiving. Looking back this turned out to be an all time clown show of a schedule! They beat ONE playoff team and got whooped by every team with a pulse - Detroit, Seattle, Dallas, Philly.
 
Inspekdah said:
Dallas beat the G men with their backup. I think having 3 legit WRs this will be their best team since the 90s by a wide margin. Daboll did do wonders but that schedule was an absolute joke and they never competed for a minute vs. Eagles and Cowboys whooped them good on Thanksgiving. Looking back this turned out to be an all time clown show of a schedule! They beat ONE playoff team and got whooped by every team with a pulse - Detroit, Seattle, Dallas, Philly.
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Count me in as dallas a better team then giants with my power ranking higher than 3.5....but week 1 is not always about the better team...see dallas tampa last year. If giants will catch dallas this year it will be game one. Daboll some new wrinkles not on film and dallas hasn't even touched starters in preseason

Have not heard ravens offense has struggled ? Well we haven't seen starters either but the backups seem to have picked the offense up nicely it looks good

Titans saints is tough...but if we are basing this on last year the matchup in the run game says titans

Packers vs bears......let me just say this. I totally see the reasom for gb here but Bears may have been better team last year that second meeting. Love was not good at utah state and in preseason is wildly inconsistent. I'm pretty convinced his best days will be where he is just serviceable and doesn't throw a pick. How many nfl qbs overthrow a 15 yard crossing route to a tight end by 10 yards over their head ? Can't remember the last time that's happened
 
EL CAPO said:
Count me in as dallas a better team then giants with my power ranking higher than 3.5....but week 1 is not always about the better team...see dallas tampa last year. If giants will catch dallas this year it will be game one. Daboll some new wrinkles not on film and dallas hasn't even touched starters in preseason

Have not heard ravens offense has struggled ? Well we haven't seen starters either but the backups seem to have picked the offense up nicely it looks good

Titans saints is tough...but if we are basing this on last year the matchup in the run game says titans

Packers vs bears......let me just say this. I totally see the reasom for gb here but Bears may have been better team last year that second meeting. Love was not good at utah state and in preseason is wildly inconsistent. I'm pretty convinced his best days will be where he is just serviceable and doesn't throw a pick. How many nfl qbs overthrow a 15 yard crossing route to a tight end by 10 yards over their head ? Can't remember the last time that's happened
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Ravens offense in camp was dominated by their defense. It's basically going from power run, borderline option offense to your typical spread. By Lamar's legs will make up for whatever bumps they experience along the way.

Love is way more accurate than Fields.

 
Inspekdah said:
Dallas beat the G men with their backup. I think having 3 legit WRs this will be their best team since the 90s by a wide margin. Daboll did do wonders but that schedule was an absolute joke and they never competed for a minute vs. Eagles and Cowboys whooped them good on Thanksgiving. Looking back this turned out to be an all time clown show of a schedule! They beat ONE playoff team and got whooped by every team with a pulse - Detroit, Seattle, Dallas, Philly.
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I don’t agree with the Dallas take at all, I been wrong before tho!! I don’t think they be better than last 2 years. I think the bottom east teams (giants and Washington) are on the rise and just don’t see the improvements in Dallas? McCarthy calling plays I think a big downgrade from Kellen Moore! (I been one the biggest chargers detractors last few seasons cause I think Staily a boob but bringing on Moore to run the offense makes me think they have a fighting chance for the offense to look better! Shouldn’t just be bad play, bad play, please bail us out on 3rd and long Hebert! Lol). Now Dallas offense gonna be more mistakes, more crappy run plays, more Dak throwing ints on 3rd and long!! Im just not a believer! certainly think giants will have a huge edge early on since Dallas didn’t get any reps in preseason and didn’t do any joint practices!!!!!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t agree with the Dallas take at all, I been wrong before tho!! I don’t think they be better than last 2 years. I think the bottom east teams (giants and Washington) are on the rise and just don’t see the improvements in Dallas? McCarthy calling plays I think a big downgrade from Kellen Moore! (I been one the biggest chargers detractors last few seasons cause I think Staily a boob but bringing on Moore to run the offense makes me think they have a fighting chance for the offense to look better! Shouldn’t just be bad play, bad play, please bail us out on 3rd and long Hebert! Lol). Now Dallas offense gonna be more mistakes, more crappy run plays, more Dak throwing ints on 3rd and long!! Im just not a believer! certainly think giants will have a huge edge early on since Dallas didn’t get any reps in preseason and didn’t do any joint practices!!!!!
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What has Moore done to prove himself? Did the offense improve with him? Not sure he's an elite OC, we'll see. Just think Dak when he has 3 WRs has such better #s than when it's 1. Big fan of Cooks and Gallup is a beast when healthy. Their oline is healthy again, too. And I always go with my eyes - Giants were dominated for 120 mins by these guys last year and pretty much were vs. any decent team.
 
Inspekdah said:
What has Moore done to prove himself? Did the offense improve with him? Not sure he's an elite OC, we'll see. Just think Dak when he has 3 WRs has such better #s than when it's 1. Big fan of Cooks and Gallup is a beast when healthy. Their oline is healthy again, too. And I always go with my eyes - Giants were dominated for 120 mins by these guys last year and pretty much were vs. any decent team.
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I don’t know that Moore is “elite”, just think he better than whatever clown was calling plays for chargers and probably better then McCarthy! Being better then those guys leaves a lot of room before we get into the elite category!! Lol,

If we were debating last year giants team those things might matter, although they did take apart the Vikings who I think sucked but were in fact a playoff team!!! New year, 2md year in the system, couple better weapons around Jones, and I absolutely think Daboll is a elite offensive mind. I’m not really sayin I think giants are great, I just don’t think the gap between them and Dallas is very big (I don’t think much of Dak or Dallas). If we were comparing eagles to giants I’d be in much more agreement as I think eagles are easily the cream of the crop in nfc east.
 
To me dallas and giants both look like teams who could win 9-10 games. If they were playing this game later in the year my attitude might be different but I just really don’t expect to see a buttoned up Dallas team in week 1, quite frankly it would freaking shock me! I don’t think there even a debate which team is better coached so I trust giants to play a much cleaner game.
 
All this said trust me it not like I’ll be loading up to make a big bet on giants or any other nfl team week 1!!! For most part my nfl bets have gotten pretty small last few years as I focus way more on ncaa fb.
 
2daBank said:
All this said trust me it not like I’ll be loading up to make a big bet on giants or any other nfl team week 1!!! For most part my nfl bets have gotten pretty small last few years as I focus way more on ncaa fb.
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What you liking for Thursday, anything?
 
Inspekdah said:
What you liking for Thursday, anything?
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Nebraska +7!! Lol, wrong thread.

Gotta be lions or nothing for me. Just can’t see myself laying 6.5 w Andy against a team who should not only be pretty good but has a rep of coming back and making things close even in games they get whipped. Seems like perfect storm for a cover to me, one team who hate to cover, one team who never gives up!
 
No Chris Jones either. Lions should score plenty! No props yet but I’ll def be eying a few guys!!
 
CPA-hole said:
Arizona really going with Josh Dobbs at qb. They are just in full tank mode, right?
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Yes. Listen to Bet the Board podcast today re NFC West. Cards were discussed first. I have never listened to a more negative discussion - ever - re NFL team.
 
I dunno how accurate it is but DK shows 85% the bets on kc! That nuts, it’s like ppl have amnesia! Don’t they know kc works for the books!! Lol
 
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