NBA Sunday

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
3-3 -92.22 yesterday
bad day, but decent considering I was so wrong on the games. Expected LAC to fold in the 4th- they didn't despite horrible rest. Lucky to cover -15 despite no starters in the 4th vs starters. not even houston's best resevres were in to hold on
Utah and Detroit both looked great heading into the 4th Qtr. Weird really- I would think it'd be the other way with the respective teams in that Wash and phx would collapse in the 4th instead of these teams, but whatever. Lost both, but feel fortunate enough to have gotten utah ml in thanks to grant hill's butter fingers. A couple things go the other way and detroit covers easily- not too bad though. I bet a -4 which in the NBA is typically just pick the winner.

onto today's games of interest:

Dallas @ Cleveland
Well cleveland with an 8 pt spread is set for a teaser/ml parlay. Really don't even need to think about it much- cleveland at home. ML it and dont complain if it ever loses. I do think dallas covers, but doubt I bet it. Josh Howard? Kidd? Will see what time I wake up lol to see if I can get a play in this one

LAL @ Atlanta
will be on Atlanta. Very tough fading LA, but this is a decent spot. ATL off 2 losses- last game of their extended home streak. LA just coastin right now into victories. Just sealed the 1 seed in the west, and altho they havnt caught CLeveland, I think letting them breathe one game is acceptable. They also fly to charlotte after this game- revenge game for them esp if they can hurt their playoff chances. I think LA has developed a hatred toward charlotte- so handing them a loss when charlotte needs Ws seems like something LA might want to do

Chicago @ Toronto
torn on this game. I would've made this line Chicago -1 as I'm not quiet sold on home wins for OKC, LAC, Milw, and Indi. I would be automatically be on CHicago if not for this being a 5/7 for them off a huge W yesterday in a game they really didnt play that well in. Toronto won by 20 in CHicago last time these guys played, so revenge may be there. Also, CHicago does have more to play for as far as playoffs and seedings. If anything it'll be Chicago. Interesting this season: Nov 24 CHicago 5/7 at Utah- W. Dec 20- 4/5 vs Utah W. Jan 15- 5/7 vs cleveland W. altho 5/7 vs Hawks- L. 5/7 Feb 28 vs Houston- W. Also, Chicago 13-8 ATS on b2bs, 7-1 when b2b vs opponent 1 day rest ( yes pointless, but still helpful). yup talked myself into a Chicago play

NJ @ Minnesota
this one is tough for me to see what NJ is thinking. off 3 losses- all of which they played decently- would suggest a must-win. upcoming schedule: vs milwaukee, vs detroit, @ chicago, vs philly, @ boston, @ detroit, vs orlando ,vs charlotte, @ NY. Last western game for them and only easy W rest of season. They have 4 games upcoming vs teams right above them, so do they look at this game like a must-win before they head into the tough stretch, or do they lookahead? I'd assume they SHOULD look at this as a must-win, but not sure they have that mindset, esp considering vs Milwaukee is much more important 2m. Getting -3 against Minnesota is hard to pass up on with any real NBA team though, so tough to say. Will probably end up with a public road chalk play here for small

Phoenix @ Sac
Like Sac here. Huge revenge for them from the 50 pt blasting they received earlier this yr. 4/5 for phoenix as well which gets exploited even more as phoenix is an old ass squad off OT heartbreaker. Grant hill being unable to hold onto the ball may be the decider for their playoffs- sad. Its hard to bet Sac to basically beat Phoenix, but I'll probably do it. 1st Q I love as well. Want to find ways around actually betting Sac, so maybe a 1st Q or TT over?
 
got in a couple before I goto sleep:
Chicago +2- 220 for 200
New Jersey -3- 220 for 200
Atlanta +3.5- 330 for 300
-pretty pissed off... half asleep I forgot my vow that on the next +3.5 dog I'd bet, I said I'd buy the hook as the last 3 +3.5's I've bet have lost by 4 and I've lost by the hook. Yes its superstitious, but fuck. It would make sense too seeing as how its LAL. bleh
3 team teaser: Cleveland -.5, ATL +11.5, Sac +13- 360 for 300

night

am looking at ATL 2nd Q, Sac 1st Q/game, SA when I wake up
 
Wow. Very bold taking such a short line against LA with a struggling Atlanta team IMO. I'm of the belief that LA is honestly toying with the NBA right now and can pretty much win these games by whatever margin they feel like winning them by. One game back of Cleveland with 10 games left, I think I disagree that they can afford not to go full-throttle in this spot. Would you be confident with a tie-game going to the 4Q? I wouldn't. Just seems like LA just coasts and then can throw in a 31-19 quarter any time they want to and blow the doors off their opponent. I can't agree that there's value at this number. Atlanta getting crushed in the 4Q by an exhausted and Duncan-less Spurs team was a real telling game IMO. Followed it up with a routine loss to Boston where they never even really had a chance to win. Who knows, I see the line has inched down a hook with the money obviously all over LA, so maybe you're right and this is a sharp play. But man this one takes some stones.

No value either way in Cleveland game IMO. Cleveland is due for a flat game though, and Dallas needs a good performance, so just a hunch but I think Dallas competes. I just hate their interior defense tho, they just have no one to stop LeBron down low. Look what happened when Melo took it to the hole with 12 seconds left the other night. No foul, nothing even close to a blocked shot, they just let him go right down and get a layup and win the damn game. Pathetic...

Can't believe Bulls are dogs. Guess Toronto's decent play at home is actually getting them some respect. Bulls are all but assured of a playoff spot anyway tho so who knows...

Fuck that stupid Minny/NJ game. Ditto for Boston/OKC.

NOH/SAS is more important psychologically for NOH I think than it is for SAS. SAS is fighting for the 2 spot yeah but NOH has really looked shitty and they desperately need a good big win to get them some swagger back.

Who knows about Phoenix and Sac. Phoenix is finished but I don't think they think they believe they are yet. Man that Utah loss had to be beyond heartbreaking tho. 50-point revenge is rare for sure and should definitely pump up this shitty Queens team. Interesting game with the various motivations and mental states of each team. If Phoenix loses this game, they'll probably start pointing fingers at each other, implode even more, and be fade material the rest of the way.
 
great thoughts killa. appreciate it

the atlanta play is more of a situational capping spot than anything, which I guess i can say I learned from you. LA is coasting to Ws- fuckin w teams, and it hasnt bitten them in the ass yet. no team in this league can just coast thru without having something get in their way just as a wakeup call of sorts. Their next game is at Charlotte- the team that that beat them in LA earlier. They have struggled with charlotte for years, and probably could look forward to hurting their playoff chances. Couple that with a morning game in Atlanta which is notorious for teams to come out flat against and I think I have myself a decent bet. However, from a pure basketball/skill standpoint- im scared shitless and pray we dont get into the 4th a tie game.

pretty much similar thoughts on the card

phoenix is fucked tonight. Surprised you dont like it more. Low morale and tired legs for an old team is never good and usually signs for a blowout. Sac with intense revenge as well,altho these are the queens so I guess can never be too enthusiastic
 
updated card:
Atlanta 1st H- 210 for 200
atlanta 2nd Q- 230 for 200
Atlanta +3.5- 330 for 300
Chicago +2- 220 for 200
-Chicago ML- 100 for 110
New Jersey -3- 220 for 200
Teaser- Atlanta +11.5, Cleveland -.5, Sac +13- 360 for 300

a lot of atlanta, so an LA blowout start to finish would mess me up
 
Damn. Going big with the Hawks. I like it, but you seem to love it. Fuck the Jazz from last night. Nuggs tried to do the same to me. I see you and BAR on the nets. Why? I mean why bet on a team that isn't going to make the playoffs on the road laying points at this point? I'm just curious as I haven't been paying a ton of attention.
 
JPicks said:
Damn. Going big with the Hawks. I like it, but you seem to love it. Fuck the Jazz from last night. Nuggs tried to do the same to me. I see you and BAR on the nets. Why? I mean why bet on a team that isn't going to make the playoffs on the road laying points at this point? I'm just curious as I haven't been paying a ton of attention.
Click to expand...

well down 10 right now I guess I can say I was wrong on jersey and just hope I reverse jinx myself. I didn't really consider Jersey completely out of it until probably today. getting -3 against minnesota is fun regardless of who it is, but with a chance that Jersey actually cared, I couldn't turn it down. I mean from an extreme optimistic view, if jersey can go 5-0 from here on they'd be on pace for the playoffs as that 5-0 would include milwaukee, detroit, chicago, and philly. its a reach, and apparently an wrong one unless jersey fights back. It was a simple play at kind of a min. bet for me. 1/2 because jersey playing a team it can beat with harris back who looked sharp last game, and they kinda have playoff hopes. 1/2 because its minnesota playing likely in an empty arena and it seems mchale is drawing names out of a hat for their rotation

on this hawk game, did not expect atlanta to be up 7 at the end of 1... my 2nd Q looking horrible. hopefully kobe picks up his 3rd quickly. LA with 13 in the 1st... can anyone else say all night at the stripclub?
 
ok shit. chicago down 16 and jersey down 9. looking pretty shitty. hopefully atlanta takes a 10 pt lead into halftime
 
fuckin sportsbook gotta be so sharp. I rarely am surprised by a line, but making toronto 2 pt faves over chicago really sucked me in to another hundred on the ml. They make it chicago -1.5 as I expected, I lose 220. They give me +110 and I cant resist... bitches
 
I flipped to playing Raps this morning as it just seemed like everyone ignored the fact Tor has been crushing teams at home and Chi didnt look so hot yesterday then had to fly out to Toronto. I was zeroing in on CHI for sure and will look at them at the Halftime .

So far so good with the ATL thought process ...

Nets are shocking me as well. I knew it was a slippery slope when Foye and Smith were ammounced out buyt still . Minny has refused to miss..lol ! Has to setup some sort of NJ play at the half though . Wolves had played 3 game road trip , day off , then a home game . back away for another 3 game trip and now home again . So now rest and 8 straight different venues ...

wow 51-34 the nets are fucking my ML parlay big time !



 
also JP, I watched the Denver game. That wouldve been a sick way to lose. I didn't have anything on it, but I was feeling for Denver backers in that 4th.

Hopefully Chicago comes back... down 8 right now. Jersey is dead with their season
 
SportsNut said:
I flipped to playing Raps this morning as it just seemed like everyone ignored the fact Tor has been crushing teams at home and Chi didnt look so hot yesterday then had to fly out to Toronto. I was zeroing in on CHI for sure and will look at them at the Halftime .

So far so good with the ATL thought process ...

Nets are shocking me as well. I knew it was a slippery slope when Foye and Smith were ammounced out buyt still . Minny has refused to miss..lol ! Has to setup some sort of NJ play at the half though . Wolves had played 3 game road trip , day off , then a home game . back away for another 3 game trip and now home again . So now rest and 8 straight different venues ...

wow 51-34 the nets are fucking my ML parlay big time !



Click to expand...

do you think jersey fights back 2nd H? WIth the home game vs milwaukee, and them being down um 20, can they afford to fight back? I mean this is minnesota, but still
 
1:51 to go in the half. ATL up 7. LA just took a timeout... dammit im scared, not just for my +.5 2nd Q, but my +1.5 1st H... wtf is mario west in there for? and did horford get injured?
 
Since you do ML parlays just added :

UNC ML , Red Wings ML and Anaheim ML ..

Red Wings lost last game and lost last meeting recently 8-0 @ Nashville . The Mighty Ducks have not been so mighty but Avs look to be in freefall just getting smoking lately and lost 7-3 at home to ANA recently . They start at 8pm so hedge with present itself if the 1st two hit ....pays about 1.35 to 1 ....
 
SF_capper said:
do you think jersey fights back 2nd H? WIth the home game vs milwaukee, and them being down um 20, can they afford to fight back? I mean this is minnesota, but still
Click to expand...

Would have said YES and just saw NJN cut it to 10pts. They cannot afford LOSSES and every game is a must win especially since they have been losing of late and rarely get "weak" opponents .

I am playinG NJN 2nd H :shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Since you do ML parlays just added :

UNC ML , Red Wings ML and Anaheim ML ..

Red Wings lost last game and lost last meeting recently 8-0 @ Nashville . The Mighty Ducks have not been so mighty but Avs look to be in freefall just getting smoking lately and lost 7-3 at home to ANA recently . They start at 8pm so hedge with present itself if the 1st two hit ....pays about 1.35 to 1 ....
Click to expand...

thanks for the tip, but I think I'd feel dirty doing a parlay with college hoops and hockey. lol know nothing about them

interesting HT scenarios though. Jersey battled back and has cut it to 10 at half and chicago down 11. I'd imagine one comes back and wins... which one? Minneosta is very susceptible to giving up early leads as Philly showed..
 
Vince doesnt seem too interested in this game, hes gonna have to step it up if they want to win this. Its been all Devin Harris for NJ. Nets leaving T-wolves shooters open on every possession. Rodney Carney is killing them.
 
I just noticed how perfect statistically for my liking NJ 2nd H is..
Minny shooting 57% vs NJ 44% and from 3 61% to 20%
only reason NJ isn't down A LOT more is that they're severely outrebounding Minny and getting to the line much more
Can expect shooting percentages to level out, but intangibles to stay the same: rebounding and attacking the rim

of course im not watching, and mets says Minny is just wide open. This is a play I make pretty often statistically at halftimes.

Also Bator has this trend of sorts- when one team is up 20+ in the 1st H and the other team battles back to make it single digits/around 10- take the team down at half. they have momentum and the other team is still half sleepin
 
haha...I know in hockey when they score its a GOAL and not much else ....

fwiw , think Bulls was a pretty square play ...books seemed to enjoy taking Bulls money in waiting until near tip before dropping it to -1.5 . Expect them the Raps to cover and win by 3 or better so at -2.5 down 11 still alot of wiggle room for CHI/Tor and probably will add small play on da Bulls. Hit small ones on Raps 1st Q and 1st H so far have Raps ML and -1 -120 pending along with Raps , nets ,etc in a ML parlay.....

down with NJ -5 -115 2nd H and have small over 200 pending ....Wolves hit every shoy for about 20 minutes when they stopped 17,18 pt lead became 10 real quick .....

:cheers:

 
Nets assistant coach says they need to pick up defensive effort. Need to close out on perimeter shooters. Force Ollie and Telfair to make some plays.
 
pretty big play for me:
New Jersey 2nd H -5- 525 for 500

do not like chicago to come back. I was sucked in and wont allow them to take more from me. 5/7 really hurts their shots at a comeback, although I would appreciate it
agree CHicago +2 and +110 was pretty square. I bet it not sold by toronto's success over bottom dwellers. Guess they are just improved
 
He did, but even when he was on the floor, he didnt attack like he normally does, made some bad passes.

Hopefully hes just starting slow bc of the early start. Either way he needs to pick it up. Not alot of offense options left with Hayes out too.
 
Theyre showing the Kevin Love trick shot video right now, the announcer in the video is losing his nut
 
One of the worst defensive performances of the year by any team. No energy, no urgency, Nets are taking this game too lightly
 
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