NBA Playoff Plays (Conference Finals)...

Eyeduke said:
Emkee,
I’ve been following you for the past 5+ years and enjoy your posts. Everyone expects Lebron to rebound at home because “that what should happen”. Well, the gambling gods love this type of thinking. Celtics have not gotten any credit these playoffs and tonight, they once again will show why teams that play as a team will beat a “one man wrecking crew” the majority of the time in any sport best of luck
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What up, Eyeduke. Thanks.

Disagree. Everyone isn't expecting a Cavs win and definitely not a Cavs win plus cover.

If anything the gambling gods you refer to would want too stomp on this Celtics cash cow.

C's getting a ton of credit right now, I just don't respect the East in general.

C's probably got this series but the Finals are gonna show us just how bad the East really is this season.

:shake:
 
Either way I gotta stay true and play the spot tonight.

Head ref James Capers is a home ref through and through.

My ref 'search engine' busted r/n but believe he has a 74% win percentage for the home team through 60+ games 'reffed' this season.

That's pretty significant, dude also has the highest home team points differential in the league.

Great ref for Cleveland if they're looking to extend a series.
 
emkee said:
Either way I gotta stay true and play the spot tonight.

Head ref James Capers is a home ref through and through.

My ref 'search engine' busted r/n but believe he has a 74% win percentage for the home team through 60+ games 'reffed' this season.

That's pretty significant, dude also has the highest home team points differential in the league.

Great ref for Cleveland if they're looking to extend a series.
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Confirmed, has the highest home win percentage among head refs that have officiated 55+ games this season (76.3%).

And is first by a decent margin in home team points differential. Will pull up those numbers in a bit.
 
emkee said:
What up, Eyeduke. Thanks.

Disagree. Everyone isn't expecting a Cavs win and definitely not a Cavs win plus cover.

If anything the gambling gods you refer to would want too stomp on this Celtics cash cow.

C's getting a ton of credit right now, I just don't respect the East in general.

C's probably got this series but the Finals are gonna show us just how bad the East really is this season.

:shake:
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The public sentiment is that the Cavs bounce back big here. There’s no denying that. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong but it’s the square play here.

A 7.5 line move from Boston. While the Warriors get a 9.5 line move. Interesting.
 
Square or sharp is there really such a thing ? Let's be honest.

I'd say the square bet tonight would have been riding the ATS beast Celtics (and better team) getting 6 and change vs the No D Cavaliers.
 
emkee said:
Square or sharp is there really such a thing ? Let's be honest.

I'd say the square bet tonight would have been riding the ATS beast Celtics (and better team) getting 6 and change vs the No D Cavaliers.
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Yeah you can look either way at it...each case can be made... This was Milwaukee series Boston on road. Philly was easiest road games so far for Boston ...
 
B.A.R. said:
Event Complete
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Yep. Feel like Hedo Turkoglu when he had the frosted tips after reading that one right. Ballin', lol.


128.jpg
 
In a nutshell...

Better team off a playoff loss in a key game at home.

Refs are meh.

Road dogs off a home fave playoff win are 3-11 ATS last 14 Game 3's losing by an average of 13.2 points.

Expecting Steph to go HAM.
 
Dubs in the 'Splash Bros' era are 21-6 ATS in the playoffs when favored by 7-10 points winning by an average margin of 14 points.

9-1 ATS in this scenario last 10 winning by an average of 17.3 points, have won and covered last 7 straight.
 
pip2 said:
OK that settles it then, I’m on the Warriors -8! Good luck to you, me, and other such bettors...
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There's a lot of us by the looks, Pip.

By the metrics it's the right play.

Good luck, hopefully we don't experience any funny business.

Warriors on occasion can be rather manipulative with the number.
 
seanbarrett74 said:
Any thoughts on line movement coming back the other way towards rockets now? Fishy imo
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Not really. Line opened high to begin with. Was expecting a 5.5 or 6 for Game 3, instead we got a 7.

Figure it to be telling, had the line drifted back to 7 I'd get a little iffy.

Right now it's a juiced -7.5, not concerned.
 
By 41. Not bad...


PS - The last close NBA playoff game (decided by less than 10 points) was Game 5 of the Sixers-Celtics series back on May 9th.
 
Expecting to see Scott Foster and Tony Brothers being named to officiate Game 4 in Cleveland.
 
Okay, initial thoughts were a more 'normalised' game with both teams reverting to their actual selves which would indicate a Celtics plus the points play.

But upon further inspection I'm gonna ride the theme of double-digit home team wins with some ref help, not as invested obviously.

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

The play...

Cavaliers -6.5 (2.3 to win 2)

LeBron is 11-2 ATS if trailing in a series and playing at home winning by an average margin of 12.1 points.

Scotty Foster factor, trailing team is undefeated both SU and ATS in games officiated by this clown these playoffs.

And if you're gonna take the points you have to believe the dog can win straight up and I don't believe the C's can in this spot on the road vs King Cramps.

Whether we like it or not the Cavs have championship pedigree in the side and those things tend to show up in must-win spots.

Will take my chances with the dodgy chalk in another have-too-get game.

:popcorn:
 
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emkee said:
Okay, initial thoughts were a more 'normalised' game with both teams reverting to their actual selves which would indicate a Celtics plus the points play.

But upon further inspection I'm gonna ride the theme of double-digit home team wins with some ref help, not as invested obviously.

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

The play...

Cavaliers -6.5 (2 units)

LeBron is 11-2 ATS if trailing in a series and playing at home winning by an average margin of 12.1 points.

Scotty Foster factor, trailing team is undefeated both SU and ATS in games officiated by this clown these playoffs.

And if you're gonna take the points you have to believe the dog can win straight up and I don't believe the C's can in this spot on the road vs King Cramps.

Whether we like it or not the Cavs have championship pedigree in the side and those things tend to show up in must-win spots.

Will take my chances with the dodgy chalk in another have-too-get game.

:popcorn:
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On it as well. BOL Em.
 
Cramps smart enough to realise they need to match Game 3's intensity with more intensity otherwise it's series lost.

Can't revert back to bad habits.

C's have proved nothing on the road. Win in Philly means nada, cover in Milly means even less. Both those opponents mentally weak.
 
Theme for Round 3 so far is home dominance with an average home winning margin of 19.3 points.

It happens in this league, themes are contagious.

2016/17 was road dominance. 2015/16 was home dominance much like this season. 2014/15 was road dominance. It basically alternates.
 
much as i don't like it em i think your right....c's will play hard but they suck on the road and "i am the greatest" will bring it.....like the offenses to show tonight
 
Yeah, gonna be interesting to see where the late money goes.

Hoping this thing closes at 7.
 
emkee said:
Yeah, gonna be interesting to see where the late money goes.

Hoping this thing closes at 7.
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Looking like it's gonna close on this number.

Closing 7 point faves are 4-0 SU and ATS this postseason winning by an average of 10 points.
 
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