NBA Playoff Plays (Conference Finals)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular:

55-48 (+23.42)

Playoffs:

17-14-1 (+8.4)

Overall:

72-62-1 (+31.82)

2nd round wasn't quite the money maker I envisioned, situations did show up late so hopefully that's a good sign.

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Game 1

The play...

Heat ML -139 (3 to win 2.15)

Think Indy may make this a series, power ratings agree but like the Heat to draw first blood.

Association also acknowledges this given the referee assignments.

:shake:
 
I'm on the Pacers for the series, so can't wish you good luck on the play, but do wish you good luck on the Conference Finals plays overall!

As for Game 1, Pacers should come motivated as hell. Sometimes it can backfire wanting too much, sometimes motivated team can just overrun the opponent. Hard to say what will happen. I hope it will be the first scenario.
 
Took the loss, rather get beaten comprehensively than lose on some last minute shit. Saw the Scott Foster numbers and couldn't resist, over-committed on the units for sure. At this stage given the nature of Game 1 and the officiating it's the Heat again in Game 2. Unlikely Indy matches the intensity or shoots the rock at such a prolific clip next time out. Champion teams always respond as square as it sounds.

My 'power ratings' do say Indy wins this series though.
 
Late add...

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs Game 1

The play...

Thunder +5.5 +102 (2 to win 2.04)

OKC a great dog team, injured star angle, my power ratings and Danny Crawford.

Settled for zero juice with the line as it's either a blowout either way or a tightly contested battle.

:shake:
 
Not sure I agree. Obviously Pop is the better coach, but Scott outcoached him in the playoffs two years ago, when Spurs were up 2 - 0, Scott went small ball and won the series.
This time, I think Scott took it to extreme. Durant is a great fit to play PF against the Spurs, since I believe he can do a decent job on Diaw and let Collison/ Perkins/ Adams guard Duncan.
But he can't and shouldn't play Center.

Don't forget that many good coaches make dumb moves. I'm sure Pop still regrets the fact that he benched Duncan not once, but twice in the final minute of Game 6 in NBA Finals last season, since both three pointers by James and Allen came after offensive rebounds off misses.
The same with Vogel and Hibbert in Game 1 of ECF last season.
 
Rough start to Round 3.

Got's to do it...

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Game 2

The play...

Heat ML -139 (3 units)

Heat are 10-SU last 10 games off a loss in the playoffs. Bottom line, I trust the defending champs to rebound more off a disappointing effort than I trust the Pacers to string together consecutive great games (they hit everything they threw at the rim, shooting at over a 50% clip - lightning rarely strikes twice).

Square as f**k and I hate the refs but it's pretty much an auto-play in this spot.

:tiphat:
 
Can't wish you luck, since I got Pacers winning the series, but I can say that I don't like any NBA bets, with so much juice.
 
emkee said:
Line moved against me, expected otherwise.

#eatchalk
Click to expand...
Yea I'm with on this I laid -135 and really confused the way the market has reacted to this game. Now Zig/Zag theory has been dead a while but in the latter rounds with quality teams it still plays fairly well. Why isn't this Heat line moving you would think this would have hit -3 or at least -2.5 by now. ML going down -2 staying do the sharps believe that Miami goes down 2-0. I'm also thinking of playing the Heat at -185 for the series but if they go down tonight I can get even money but can you see them lose tonight. They need to be a little bigger and start the bird man that IMO will help. I think the Heat are in for a battle much more then I expected. Didn't expect a walk over but tonight will tell the story. If they lose tonight with a 2-2-1-1-1 format there's a great chance they lose this series. GL emkee
 
I see now the Heat -165 for the Series I have to play that worst case if I have to there will be some business at the end to cut bait.
 
18-16 (+6.4)

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs Game 2

The play...

Thunder +5.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
A little reluctant here but sticking with the formula.

OKC should adjust just fine given Game 1 was their 1st 'real' game minus Ibaka and the refs pretty much gave them nothing.

Either way will get all donations back in Game 3.
 
emkee said:
A little reluctant here but sticking with the formula.

OKC should adjust just fine given Game 1 was their 1st 'real' game minus Ibaka and the refs pretty much gave them nothing.

Either way will get all donations back in Game 3.
Click to expand...
yep
 
Spurs are a buzz saw. Period.

Knew OKC could lose but they were obliterated. That boxscore for the Thunder is dead ugly.

SA exposing OKC for all they are - Durant with all the talent but a serious lack of leadership, Westbrook is not a PG and Brooks is not a coach.

Was painful to see KD and Russell laughing and smiling on the bench down 30 in a playoff game.
 
Been getting my teeth kicked in w/ OKC as well, but I'm playing them in game 3. I made them 4.5.

GL man.
 
Leaning that way, Smh. OKC in a favorable spot, no doubt but it's hard to shake the images of them getting totally dominated in the Alamo.

ECF's Game 3...

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

The play...

Pacers +6.5 (2 units)

This game is bigger deal for Indy than Miami, imo. Numbers say I can't fade Indy in this spot. Just as the Heat are prolific off a playoff loss, Indy isn't far behind (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS last 12 instances). Power ratings, win percentage #'s agree. Have the game lined at 5. Like the refs to keep Indy banging as well, can't ask for any better than McCutchen and Brothers if you're on the Pacers. Play is popular though, which kinda sucks.

:shake:
 
GL Emkee tonight Emkee. Pacers win, I will consider Mia, especially if they move off the 7.

RE: OKC, the images are what is keeping that number down! You know the best bets are the hardest to make!
 
Also on the Pacers. I don't know what's going on with the Pacers this postseason, but their road and home abilities and record just got switched from regular season...

Good luck!
 
smh212 said:
GL Emkee tonight Emkee. Pacers win, I will consider Mia, especially if they move off the 7.

RE: OKC, the images are what is keeping that number down! You know the best bets are the hardest to make!
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
18-18 (+2.26)

Another faulty play with the Pacers tonight. Steam on dogs rarely works out.

WCF's Game 3...

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

The play...

Thunder ML -140 (4 units)

Thoughts a little later. Was always gonna be a bigger play, just have to vanquish any lingering memories of Game's 1 and 2 from the cranium.

:shake:
 
Was gonna drop some thoughts but Smh sums it up the best in his thread.

Some numbers...

Team down 0-2 in a Conference Finals best-of-7 series is 21-6 SU (.777) when playing Game 3 at home since the 1985/86 season.

Team that scored 78 points or less on the road in a Conference Finals game is 9-1 SU last 10 occasions when playing the next game at home.
 
We knew that was coming with OKC. Don't know about y'all, but I was not impressed at all with OKC. I feel like the win was completely situation driven, and nothing has changed fundamentally for OKC. Pop threw in the towel with 8 mins left. I hope the odds makers throw a "3" up on game 4.
 
smh212 said:
We knew that was coming with OKC. Don't know about y'all, but I was not impressed at all with OKC. I feel like the win was completely situation driven, and nothing has changed fundamentally for OKC. Pop threw in the towel with 8 mins left. I hope the odds makers throw a "3" up on game 4.
Click to expand...


Absolutely agree...
 
Btw, I went small on Russ All Over 40.5.

As I saw him going in for that dunk knowing he wanted to just crush it I knew he would miss it...then he got the rebound and put it back in...

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 100%"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR="class: odd"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: center"]84-102[/TD]
[TD]Russell Westbrook misses layup[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="width: 50, align: center"]4:03[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84-102[/TD]
[TD]Russell Westbrook offensive rebound[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="width: 50, align: center"]4:01[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84-104[/TD]
[TD]Russell Westbrook makes layup[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="width: 50, align: center"]3:41[/TD]
[TD]Aron Baynes bad pass (Serge Ibaka steals)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84-104

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]




So I won a small-play because that jackass tried to be a ham and I woulda lost by hook if he makes that dunk. Thank you Russ!!
 
smh212 said:
We knew that was coming with OKC. Don't know about y'all, but I was not impressed at all with OKC. I feel like the win was completely situation driven, and nothing has changed fundamentally for OKC. Pop threw in the towel with 8 mins left. I hope the odds makers throw a "3" up on game 4.
Click to expand...

Yeah, agree about OKC not being that impressive but until SA proves they can win in Oklahoma, I'll more than likely be on the Thunder ML again in Game 4 remembering they'll be taking a ton of confidence from Game 3. Subject to change of course.

Was also funny to see Scott Foster killing all OKC 1st quarter bets, dude is a pro.
 
B.A.R. said:
Btw, I went small on Russ All Over 40.5.

As I saw him going in for that dunk knowing he wanted to just crush it I knew he would miss it...then he got the rebound and put it back in...

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: odd"]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: center"]84-102[/TD]
[TD]Russell Westbrook misses layup[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="width: 50, align: center"]4:03[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84-102[/TD]
[TD]Russell Westbrook offensive rebound[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="width: 50, align: center"]4:01[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84-104[/TD]
[TD]Russell Westbrook makes layup[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="width: 50, align: center"]3:41[/TD]
[TD]Aron Baynes bad pass (Serge Ibaka steals)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84-104
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]




So I won a small-play because that jackass tried to be a ham and I woulda lost by hook if he makes that dunk. Thank you Russ!!
Click to expand...

Nice.
 
emkee said:
Yeah, agree about OKC not being that impressive but until SA proves they can win in Oklahoma, I'll more than likely be on the Thunder ML again in Game 4 remembering they'll be taking a ton of confidence from Game 3. Subject to change of course.

Was also funny to see Scott Foster killing all OKC 1st quarter bets, dude is a pro.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
Will be on Miami for sure, just waiting for the line to settle. Can currently get -6.5 (+103)...
 
I haven't had any feel in the Miami series, sans game 2 and a second half over in game 3, both were purely situational. Watched game 3 again. Have to wonder if Indiana has the mental makeup to win this one in Miami. Do think they get game 5.

GL Emkee.....will look for your thoughts later today.
 
smh212 said:
I haven't had any feel in the Miami series, sans game 2 and a second half over in game 3, both were purely situational. Watched game 3 again. Have to wonder if Indiana has the mental makeup to win this one in Miami. Do think they get game 5.

GL Emkee.....will look for your thoughts later today.
Click to expand...

had the same thought after game three....indy looked weak mentally....if indy up at half by a little may be a good spot for a miami 2nd half
 
19-18 (+6.26)

ECF's Game 4...

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

The play...

Heat -5.5 -135 (2.7 to win 2)

Juiced and reduced number with the local. Doubt it matters much, Indy wins straight up or gets smoked although stranger things have happened.

Honestly can't see Indy recovering from Game 3's meltdown which was their best shot at stealing a game in South Beach, team is fragile as fuck. Heat know it's important to hold home court. Thinking this one maybe over at halftime.

Danny Crawford officiating, Heat 12-4 ATS (13-3 SU) under his whistle in the playoffs.

Ref crew (Crawford 12-4, Capers 5-1 and Davis 6-1) is a combined 23-6 ATS for the Heat in the playoffs during the LeBron era.

:shake:
 
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