Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Managed to save the day last night with the 3 late picks, taking all 3 ML dogs (only posted Atlanta here, didn't want to force the issue). Let's get on tonight:
Pistons (-8,5) (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Got it at 2.00 but this is almost the same. The Pistons are rested, playing at home, and should be much more focused than the game with the Raptors, in which we were burned by 1 point.
The Clippers are bringing their road trip to an end, a trip in which they went 2-4, beating only lifeless Boston and Philadelphia, losing to everyone else both SU and ATS. They're b2b, not the best spot for them this season, and are coming off a rough loss in Indiana.
The Pistons should impose their tempo early on, unlike the Raptors game where they had to climb back from a double digit deficit. Clippers just don't have the pace right now, and I highly doubt it they can cope with Detroit at the Palace (Moreover, Detroit has won 12 of its last 13 home games against the Clippers, with the lone loss coming in overtime on Feb. 19, 2001.)
Furthermore, Clippers' shooting woes continue. They're abysmal 41% from the floor in their last 5 games, opposed to Pistons' 48%.
Even the biggest Clippers' force - Forward Elton Brand, is showing signs of slowing down and fatigue. After averaging 23.0 points and 14.0 rebounds in the first three games of the road trip, Brand is averaging only 15.7 points and 8.7 boards in his last three games.
The last thing the Clippers' backcourt need right now is facing excellent defenders in Rip and Chauncey, backed up by Prince, they should close the inside as well, with Pistons big men being more fresh than obviously deteriorating Brand and Chris Kaman. These guys can't wait to get home and have some rest before the All Star break, in which they won't have any players this year.
Comments on other games:
Nuggets-Warriors
Denver should have Marcus Camby back in the line-up, Iverson remains a game-time decision. I have to say I didn't expect a 9 point spread, but it's spot on considering all the absentees in the Warriors team. They're missing Pietrus, Davis (unlikely to play tonight) and since earlier Richardson (long term injury) and Cabarkapa.
Denver got Nene Hilario back, and he's been playing very well since his return. With fresh Camby in the lineup and Iverson back Denver could end up molesting the depleted Warriors both on the boards and from the backcourt. However, it's still a question of the spread, I'm not a fan of eating 9 points in this situation, especially since the Nuggets are in a rare spot (compared to previous seasons) where their road record is better than the one at home, in which they are one win short of .500
The total margin is set at quite high 220 points. Denver should win, and probably cover as well, but I'm not touching this one.
Jazz-Hawks
Atlanta tied a 14 year old record of 5 consecutive road wins and are now traveling to Utah. The hosts are still without Boozer and even though they've managed to cover his absence it's hard to determine whether they come out fired up tonight or will the Hawks contend for their 6 straight road win. All in all, I'm skipping this one as well. If it wasn't for Hawks' b2b spot, I would probably pound on the over here (expected the margin at 196) and it remains my only lean of the night, but I'm probably staying away.
:cheers:
Pistons (-8,5) (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Got it at 2.00 but this is almost the same. The Pistons are rested, playing at home, and should be much more focused than the game with the Raptors, in which we were burned by 1 point.
The Clippers are bringing their road trip to an end, a trip in which they went 2-4, beating only lifeless Boston and Philadelphia, losing to everyone else both SU and ATS. They're b2b, not the best spot for them this season, and are coming off a rough loss in Indiana.
The Pistons should impose their tempo early on, unlike the Raptors game where they had to climb back from a double digit deficit. Clippers just don't have the pace right now, and I highly doubt it they can cope with Detroit at the Palace (Moreover, Detroit has won 12 of its last 13 home games against the Clippers, with the lone loss coming in overtime on Feb. 19, 2001.)
Furthermore, Clippers' shooting woes continue. They're abysmal 41% from the floor in their last 5 games, opposed to Pistons' 48%.
Even the biggest Clippers' force - Forward Elton Brand, is showing signs of slowing down and fatigue. After averaging 23.0 points and 14.0 rebounds in the first three games of the road trip, Brand is averaging only 15.7 points and 8.7 boards in his last three games.
The last thing the Clippers' backcourt need right now is facing excellent defenders in Rip and Chauncey, backed up by Prince, they should close the inside as well, with Pistons big men being more fresh than obviously deteriorating Brand and Chris Kaman. These guys can't wait to get home and have some rest before the All Star break, in which they won't have any players this year.
Comments on other games:
Nuggets-Warriors
Denver should have Marcus Camby back in the line-up, Iverson remains a game-time decision. I have to say I didn't expect a 9 point spread, but it's spot on considering all the absentees in the Warriors team. They're missing Pietrus, Davis (unlikely to play tonight) and since earlier Richardson (long term injury) and Cabarkapa.
Denver got Nene Hilario back, and he's been playing very well since his return. With fresh Camby in the lineup and Iverson back Denver could end up molesting the depleted Warriors both on the boards and from the backcourt. However, it's still a question of the spread, I'm not a fan of eating 9 points in this situation, especially since the Nuggets are in a rare spot (compared to previous seasons) where their road record is better than the one at home, in which they are one win short of .500
The total margin is set at quite high 220 points. Denver should win, and probably cover as well, but I'm not touching this one.
Jazz-Hawks
Atlanta tied a 14 year old record of 5 consecutive road wins and are now traveling to Utah. The hosts are still without Boozer and even though they've managed to cover his absence it's hard to determine whether they come out fired up tonight or will the Hawks contend for their 6 straight road win. All in all, I'm skipping this one as well. If it wasn't for Hawks' b2b spot, I would probably pound on the over here (expected the margin at 196) and it remains my only lean of the night, but I'm probably staying away.
:cheers:
