Satyr
Paster of Muppets
As I sat down to do a writeup for this game, I noticed Rod posted his big play on the Jazz and had some SPOT ON thoughts plus more than I provided, so if you still haven't (come on, you have 
) checked his thread do it.
Jazz (+6) (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Jazz (ML) (3.41 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
A series doesn't start before one of the teams wins on the road. And we're still in deadlock here.
This is the last series I would have thought it would be home oriented. Why you ask? Just look at how many letdowns both of these teams have had during regular season, against lowly rated opposition as much as upper echelon teams.
I gave slight advantage to Utah before the series started, and I'm sticking to it now.
Rockets look like a talented, well covered bunch but in reality they are very prone to giving the other team to lead the rhythm. That is acceptable if you're called SA or Dallas (even though the Mavs can't get out of the Warriors' choke for some time now) but these Rockets are too one-dimensional to pull something like that off. Predictable would be an overstatement, but the fact they're prone to choke when they are supposed to step up would be right on the money if you ask me.
Exactly as I expected, the supporting cast has been the factor that failed to produce in the playoffs when the Rockets are concerned, once the big scene arrived these guys rely on Ming and McGrady too much, while they need a more evened effort, involving players who carried them throughout the season when either T-Mac or Yao were missing.
Where are they now? I surely didn't see an evened effort, what I've seen is Utah inability to close out games, they could've snatched a W in game 2 and everyone would be talking how Sloan got it done in the playoffs and how Van Gundy's team is falling apart (no kidding?).
I could see Utah winning tonight, and what I could definitely see is them covering the game. This is likely to be a very competitive game possibly going down the wire and getting the decision in the final minutes, in such scenario the points are gold.
I feel like the momentum is switching sides under the radar, as no one is really talking about Utah at this point, and having watched all games in the series I do think they are much closer to go through.
Spurs (-2) (1.96 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
A deja vu scenario here. We've seen all this 2 years ago when Denver stole game 1 only to fall apart afterwards, and even though I'm well aware this Denver team is much stronger than the one 2 years ago, I still think they needed to start playing their ball well before than they actually did. They were sailing around .500 for the entire season only to finish on a strong note, that's too little composure and experience for a team to leap over the Spurs.
The Spurs are all about experience. If you find the way to exploit their weaknesses, you will have the upper hand, but once they start beating you down over and over again with their game, feeding the ball to Duncan and imposing their tempo, you're done.
I don't think the Nuggets are "done", but I do think the Spurs could come out HUGE tonight. They know this is the game they either step up in, or it's back to deadlock situation.
Spurs' bench has stepped up more so far, and Denver are lacking secondary unit scoring at the moment, plus the Spurs managed to solve that incredibly ugly mismatch on the boards from game 1 when Nene-Camby combo destroyed them.
That's Popovich for you. He started to rely on Parker and Manu driving to the basket and giving Tim the ball to distribute it from the inside once double-teamed.
The only was I see Denver winning this one is if their bench guys pitch in. And the way I'm looking at it, them not doing it, or at least not doing it adequately, is a bit more realistic outcome.
Good luck guys.
) checked his thread do it. Jazz (+6) (1.97 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Jazz (ML) (3.41 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
A series doesn't start before one of the teams wins on the road. And we're still in deadlock here.
This is the last series I would have thought it would be home oriented. Why you ask? Just look at how many letdowns both of these teams have had during regular season, against lowly rated opposition as much as upper echelon teams.
I gave slight advantage to Utah before the series started, and I'm sticking to it now.
Rockets look like a talented, well covered bunch but in reality they are very prone to giving the other team to lead the rhythm. That is acceptable if you're called SA or Dallas (even though the Mavs can't get out of the Warriors' choke for some time now) but these Rockets are too one-dimensional to pull something like that off. Predictable would be an overstatement, but the fact they're prone to choke when they are supposed to step up would be right on the money if you ask me.
Exactly as I expected, the supporting cast has been the factor that failed to produce in the playoffs when the Rockets are concerned, once the big scene arrived these guys rely on Ming and McGrady too much, while they need a more evened effort, involving players who carried them throughout the season when either T-Mac or Yao were missing.
Where are they now? I surely didn't see an evened effort, what I've seen is Utah inability to close out games, they could've snatched a W in game 2 and everyone would be talking how Sloan got it done in the playoffs and how Van Gundy's team is falling apart (no kidding?).
I could see Utah winning tonight, and what I could definitely see is them covering the game. This is likely to be a very competitive game possibly going down the wire and getting the decision in the final minutes, in such scenario the points are gold.
I feel like the momentum is switching sides under the radar, as no one is really talking about Utah at this point, and having watched all games in the series I do think they are much closer to go through.
Spurs (-2) (1.96 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
A deja vu scenario here. We've seen all this 2 years ago when Denver stole game 1 only to fall apart afterwards, and even though I'm well aware this Denver team is much stronger than the one 2 years ago, I still think they needed to start playing their ball well before than they actually did. They were sailing around .500 for the entire season only to finish on a strong note, that's too little composure and experience for a team to leap over the Spurs.
The Spurs are all about experience. If you find the way to exploit their weaknesses, you will have the upper hand, but once they start beating you down over and over again with their game, feeding the ball to Duncan and imposing their tempo, you're done.
I don't think the Nuggets are "done", but I do think the Spurs could come out HUGE tonight. They know this is the game they either step up in, or it's back to deadlock situation.
Spurs' bench has stepped up more so far, and Denver are lacking secondary unit scoring at the moment, plus the Spurs managed to solve that incredibly ugly mismatch on the boards from game 1 when Nene-Camby combo destroyed them.
That's Popovich for you. He started to rely on Parker and Manu driving to the basket and giving Tim the ball to distribute it from the inside once double-teamed.
The only was I see Denver winning this one is if their bench guys pitch in. And the way I'm looking at it, them not doing it, or at least not doing it adequately, is a bit more realistic outcome.
Good luck guys.
illow: :shake:
