NBA Conference Finals plays and thoughts

[divol]

I got to post overdue record, just need to find the time to do some math. Overall, in the red zone this postseason (not sure how deep, but probably mild red zone).

Skipping Game 1, but wrote my thoughts in general here:
http://cappingthegame.com/forum/ind...ssion-cleveland-vs-boston.136072/post-3300574

Will probably be betting Game 2 the loser of Game 1...

 

[divol]

Will post reasoning later, now just the plays:

Cleveland to win, 1.97 odds - 6 units play
Over 203 points in Boston, 1.93 odds - 8 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Over looks good to me...

 

[Metallica]

Cleveland going to bounce back.

 

[divol]

Boston - Cleveland

Overall, I see few key reasons for Cleveland's loss:
1) Cavs missed tons of completely open shots from three point line, allowing Boston to close the paint - doubt it will happen again. Bron and Smith missed very good looks few times...
2) Bron looked as if he was learning the Celtics, instead of playing them... on offense, without the ball, he hardly moved and just wasn't involved enough.

I doubt Cleveland defense will suddenly improve. Boston played using three simple rules - move the ball enough and Cavs defense will make a mistake, try to attack early, before Cavs defense can get organized. Third is use Horford against Love or any other mismatch. Boston hit some hard shots and gained confidence, but overall... Hard to believe that Boston will slow the pace down or that Cavs defense is good enough to stop Boston below 100 points (and that's without Kyrie). Cavs showed some good minutes on defense against Pacers and Raptors, but both teams didn't have Stevens on the bench that made needed adjustments on offense, everytime Lue tried to organized his defense.
Cleveland should be able to score 105+ points here. Just by hitting open looks that they missed in Game 1, they should get there...
Game 2 so far was the best for Cavs in both series.
I see it as Cavs win - something like 111 - 103. Can see Cavs winning by double digits - but still... given the pace, it should go Over. Maybe something like 117 - 99 - if it's a blowout...

 

[divol]

Houston Rockets - Golden State

Dubs can win this one, I have no doubt. Still... it's 50 - 50 game on paper and motivation should be worth more than 2 points in my opinion...
This is Game 7 for the Rockets... if they lose this one, they won't come back in this series and probably the series won't even comeback to Houston.
Golden State will be looking to close the series and not to extend it, but still... they got the road win they needed and doubt they will come with the same energies...
Even Curry made few nice plays on defense...
Mike D needs to shut down Nene, and work on little things... To be honest, Game 1 felt like Rockets weren't ready for GSW, despite waiting all season to play them in WCF...
They are good enough, to at least not get swept and this probably there chance to do just that...
Rockets -2, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck D

 

[B.A.R.]

Thx for the thoughts.

 

[divol]

Very annoying 0 - 2 tonight

Feel like I read the game more or less the right way. Cleveland scored 55 points at the HT and it looked liked a solid offensive game by the Cavs, including three pointers... Then came second half, with Cavs scoring only 39 points and losing both the bets...
As I said already, Cavs can't stop Boston on defense - they need to elevate their offense and they still a very good offensive team.
One of the main things that Celtics caused Cleveland, is taking every mediocre shot. You can see Korver starting shooting motion, even before his legs are set. George Hill semi open from the corner, releasing three pointer half a second too early. It feels like Celts players got in Cavs players heads and they feel that if they wait that split of a second to get to the right shot, they will be well defended. I saw at least 5-6 shots in the second half (didn't see the first half), where Cleveland player rushed a shot.
Also, many times, it appeared that Cavs players are afraid to pass. If we take LeBron's passes out (that dished few very nice assists, but also made few bad ones passes that turned to easy two points on the other side), many times, you saw a player waiting for someone (Bron) to come and take the ball from him, instead of passing it...
Three days break is just what Cleveland needed - not sure if it helps.
Good chance Cleveland manages to tie the series at home, but no reason to think they will win by double digits. Celtics should fight for that road win that will probably close the series and doubt they will quit at halftime... at least one game in Cleveland should be really close...

 

[emkee]

It's been a weird season, Divol.

That 2nd half by Cleveland was odd and messy.

Cavs have basically forced our hand for Game 3 though.

 

[divol]

Finally got a win, hope it's a good sign

Cleveland - Boston

Don't see any value in the line tonight for either team. Cleveland winning by single digits makes the most sense and that is exactly what the line suggests.
The series will return to Boston I believe, either tied 2 - 2 or Boston up 3 - 1. I assume that ATS wise, will be a split, so it makes sense for me, to back ATS the loser (SU) of tonight's game.
Boston won't give up and will fight to win or at least to go down swinging. They need it for their spirit I believe. Cleveland didn't show anything this season (regular or playoffs) that would suggest revenge or statement type of game. Even after getting blown away by Pacers in Game 1, at home, they barely won in Game 2 (or other games that followed). If there is one thing Cleveland prove, is that when they struggle against someone, they will struggle, no matter the circumstances.
If the line was 8 points, would have played the Celtics, but 6.5 is a bit too short for me...
As for the total, this time, my concern is Boston offense. On paper, no reason for them not to score 100+ points again, against horrible Cavs defense, but numbers so far, suggest that Boston can struggle on offense on the road.
Still... Cleveland should finally score 100+ points and I believe they will score 107 - 111 points, so as long as Boston will score 100+ points, the Over should cash in easily and even if they score 95 points only, Cleveland offense can carry the score to Over 206 points.
110 - 106 in Cleveland's favor makes sense here.
Over 206 points, 1.94 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Good get on the number and I agree

 

[divol]

Annoying loss... feel that I read the game correctly and even identified the potential problem...

On to tonight...

Cleveland - Boston

Basically, same worries as Game 3, but less. Boston should play better. Cleveland probably won't be as good from three point line tonight, but still should get to 105+ points and Boston should get to 100+ points. Still feels like 110 - 106, probably again in Cleveland's favor,
Boston got the waking call they needed and they still too smart on offense, against Cleveland's still very poor defense.
Boston admitted after Game 3 in Milwaukee, that they weren't ready for road playoffs game and while it seemed like they learned they lesson in the next road games against Bucks and Sixers, they clearly weren't ready for Game 3. Game 4 should be very different.
Win or lose (better win for Boston) is one thing, but the last thing they want is Cleveland coming to Game 5, after handing Celts another beating and dripping confidence and I trust Stevens to get his boys ready much better tonight.
Boston +7, 1.94 odds - 7 units play
Over 205.5 points, 1.93 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[Shumakov]

Good Luck

 

[divol]

Spasibo Shuma

Easy Over, but C's missed every shot that could really open up the game...

 

[divol]

Golden State - Houston

No real reasoning, just a feeling that Rockets will go down fighting in this one. CP3 and Mike D are experts at filling the bucket and then kicking it... Can easily see them building a big lead tonight and lose in the end by a bucket or two...
All three games so far, weren't close, but we should see at least one epic game in this series (mostly hoping for it) and Rockets know this is a game they can't lose. They won't win Dubs in 3 games straight, so this is the game for the series for them...
Rockets +8.5, 1.92 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!

 

[divol]

Finally a win... Dubs really surprised me by poor finish, but Rockets did really well... Should be great Game 5...

Boston - Cleveland

It's all about the supporting cast for Cleveland and C's confidence and there is a reason why C's so good at home this postseason. No reason to change the bets...
Boston -1, 1.97 odds - 7 units play
Over 206 points - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck D

 

[divol]

Thanks mate... got a feeling that I will need it)

 

[pip2]

If you are on the Celtics, then so am I! Good luck to both of us divol. With Shuma switched over to the Cavaliers, I’m pretty nervous...

 

[Shumakov]

If you are on the Celtics, then so am I! Good luck to both of us divol. With Shuma switched over to the Cavaliers, I’m pretty nervous...

I will try to explain,
Cleveland is an experienced team
and Boston reached the ceiling

and bored already Boston,

 

[KJ]

Let's go points early and often

 

[pip2]

That’s right shuma, I agree. The Celtics can’t exploit Cleveland inexperience the way they did with the Bucks and the Seventysixers. And they do seem to have reached their limits, and there might even be a problem where some of the younger Celtics revere Lebron too much to really want to beat him.

I guess what I am banking on today is that Smart and Tatum will play a lot better, and Korver will play a lot worse. That plus the Celtics have been the most reliable team I’ve bet on all season, while The Cavaliers have been anything but reliable. So I’m sticking with the team that got me ahead in the first place. Nervously...

 

[divol]

Split the bets, but Over was the wrong play from the start. Road team offense not showing up is a given in this series and it was too big of a game for teams to let their guards down. Few easy baskets on both ends of the floor, but too much time milking, especially by Bron, who was obviously too tired to play the minutes he played last night.

Houston - Golden State

Rockets -1 is the correct line here, so can't see any value. Golden State should have won Game 4 and seal the series, but Rockets did everything right and Dubs managed somehow to do everything wrong in the 4th quarter. Huge respect to all the Rockets players (Gordon, Tucker, Ariza, Harden and CP3 played amazing 4th quarter on both ends of the floor).
Golden State got used to winning and I'm almost sure that even going down 2 - 3 in the series, won't stop them from believing themselves... That's good on one side, but bad on the other - confidence is good, overconfidence is bad...
I like the Over tonight, since it's obvious that teams can't play any better defense (Rockets) or any worst offense (both teams actually missed few good looks) - but still... Huge game tonight and can easily be around 210 points just the same.
Have a feeling that both teams will flirt with 110 points, but no reason to play it...
Skipping it...

 

[divol]

Cleveland - Boston

Under makes sense here, but it's so hard to bet on Under, because you have to bet that Cleveland's solid offense at home won't work or that Cleveland's terrible defense will suddenly get better.
Why Under makes sense? Because home team should dictate the tempo and Bron needs to dribble the ball 20 seconds each offense, to catch a breath...
Because Boston has no reason to speed the tempo up in Cleveland, because they prefer to stay in the game as late as possible, because this forces Bron to stay in game and gives them a fighting chance.
It's either Under or skip here and I prefer to skip.
As for the line, hunch says Boston, but it makes zero sense to bet against home team in this season in particular or in any of Boston games this postseason.
Still... Bron looks very tired and while there is a good chance that supporting cast will show up at home, we should see finally a close game in this series.
Boston actually has better chance to win tonight, as a huge underdog, than at home, in crucial Game 7, as (probably) a small favorite.
Boston is a team that prefers to be an underdog and tonight, they can bite.
Will try a small teaser:
Boston +11.5 & Warriors -7 - 2.00 odds - 5 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[KJ]

GL man, on under and think the GSW tease number is a gift...hope Boston make it work

 

[Big daddy naught]

I think it’s smart Houston keeping Paul out of game 6. Even for game 7, if he can even play he’s not going to be anywhere near 100% so it’s better to give him the days off, skip the travel to the bay and let him get as healthy as he can get. I’d rather have two chances to win 1 game, with one being at home and him being at the best you can ask for him to be physically then throwing him out there twice way less than his best, and most likely would do more damage to his body in game 6 and be even worse off for a game 7.

That said I think we see both go 7. Warriors should win big, Boston bet depends on the start. If they can weather the punches clev throws early this will be close. If not, could he trouble. gL

 

[Big daddy naught]

Just read Paul is gonna travel w team. Dumb move. Hammy will swell on that flight. Just let him rest back in Houston getting treatment round the clock.

 

[divol]

First leg of the teaser won.
Now GSW...
Overall, I really worried that everyone so sure about the Dubs... no such thing as easy money in gambling...
Rockets can catch a solid game behind the three point line and steal the series... Harden can't continue to be that bad...

On the other hand, Warriors know they need to wake up and they are still the best team in the league by far and the last thing they want in elimination game, is to allow the other team to hang in the game... They should try and win easily and go to Houston to try and finish the job. Can't rule anything out, but anything other than double digits win for the Dubs, will be a major surprise given the circumstances...

 

[divol]

I also took Boston -2, but will post if I make it official and thoughts on the game tomorrow...

 

[Big daddy naught]

Lebron has be go for 50 for them to have a shot tomorrow.

 

[divol]

Sescond leg of the teaser won as well

Boston - Cleveland

Obviously as the line suggests, it's anyone's game and no result will be a surprised. But I feel that Boston is the right bet here without a doubt, even if it ends up losing. Few reasons for that:
1) Game 7 is 36 - 11 SU for home favorites. That being said, short favorites are 2 - 5 SU, but this series been all about home court advantage as Boston's postseason overall. 2) Home court not only about the crowd, but also about the role players. Cleveland role players struggle on the road and I really can't see Hill, Clarckson, Nance and Green being as effective in Boston. You know who was solid for Cavs playing in Boston? Love (17.6 ppg and 10 rpg) and he won't be there. He was the go to guy, when Bron got his small rest or when he tried to rest on the floor. Good luck taking the foot of the gas in Boston Bron...
3) Fatigue. Cleveland said that AC was set to max in Game 6, trying to help Bron and his fatigue and cramps issues. Doubt Boston will do the same
On top of that, Bron looked tired in Boston, had one minute rest in Game 6 and despite hitting both huge three pointers late in the game, avoided to go the paint (and when tried, often missed), due to fatigue I guess.
Obviously, he will go all in for this one, but game after game, without Love in both games, I expect him not to last 48 minutes, even if he will be on the court all the time. Without him active (no matter on or off the floor), Boston can make the run that will finish the game.
4) Boston players were terrible in Game 6. Especially Horford (but also others struggled - Morris, Tatum) - Horford probably has nightmares from Bron by now, but they have a chance to finish them at home and while it's double edged sword and they can repeat their performance from Game 6, I do believe they should be able to play much better. After all... they weren't that far behind in Game 6 and if Horford plays like he played in rest of the series (other than Game 6), that alone should be enough to get the win.
5) Really hard to imagine that Game 7 - both will go to visiting teams and Boston has much bigger chance of winning, than Houston.

Cleveland without Love is much more predictable. Game 6 was won partially because while Love usually doesn't cut to the rim, Nance and Tristan do and with Cleveland going big, they got a lot of second chance points. I expect Stevens to react to that, knowing this time, how Cleveland will play - on the other hand, it's hard to believe that Lue will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat this time.
Win or lose, I believe that Boston is the right bet here.

 

[divol]

Forgot to write the units and the odds:
Boston -2, 1.95 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[divol]

Still feel it was the right play, but going against LeBron in the East... always a risk...
Hope for better Finals... Bet lost...