Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

12. Pitt -2.5 @Virginia Tech: It would seem foolish to lay points on the road with a team that's been as terrible as Pitt has on offense, but when the opponent is Virginia Tech, and we are aware of Pitt's record under Narduzzi as a road dog, this becomes a must play. The Panthers have covered 8 in a row in that role and are 12-1 ATS as road favorites since 2019. Despite how bad the Pitt offense and Phil Jurkovec have been, I don't think that's likely to change. First of all. coming into the season pretty much everyone had Pitt as a top 5 team in the ACC, some, like Phil Steele had them 3rd, ahead of Miami and North Carolina. It's clear that that ship has sailed, but they can't be as bad as they've looked. The schedule they've played isn't a bunch of world beaters, but it's better than Virginia Tech has played, and all the Hokies have proven is that they can't get out of their own way under Brent Pry. They've gone to Kyron Drones at QB, which gives them an added element of mobility, but that's not the kind of thing that usually bothers Pitt, whose defense has been about as advertised, ranking 24th in overall yards per play against. VT has been terrible against the run, and as we know, that's what Narduzzi and OC Cignetti want to do, and after what they've seen from Jurkovec this year, I'm sure the REALLY want to do that now. 3 of the 4 teams that VT has played topped 200 yards rushing, and the one that didn't, Purdue, had 179 and finished off the game on the ground. Ultimately, its hard to believe Jurkovec can be this bad. If they are going to have a get right game, being in this role against this team might be the only way it happens for them. Their history indicates that it's likely it will.

Pitt ran 46 plays. VT, who came into the week ranked 103rd in rushing and had backs averaging 3.1 yards per carry, ran it 57 times and basically ground Pitt's run defense into dust. To say I didn't expect that would happen would be a pretty big understatement.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
6. Old Dominion +14.5 @Marshall: If the Herd has proven one thing since Charles Huff has been there, it's that they have a pretty wild variance for their ATS performance depending on whether they're playing at home or on the road. On the road, they've been great, racking up a 9-3 ATS record with outright upset wins at Notre Dame, Appy State and James Madison last year. But when they've been at home, it's been a totally different story. In the vast majority of those games they've been a favorite, and coming into their year they were 2-9 ATS with five outright losses. This year they covered as a home favorite by a point over a VT squad that was 4-13 ATS in the non-conference, so someone had to cover in that one, and by luck of the draw, it was Marshall. Now they are back in their challenged role, and I think ODU matches up pretty good with them. Offensively, Marshall wants to run with Rasheen Ali, who piled up 174 yards last week against VT, and that's with good reason. He's good, and QB Cam Fancher is not the guy you want to rely on to move the ball through the air. He was less than 7 yards per attempt last year, and he's the same this year with a 2/3 TD/INT ratio. ODU has been good against the run so far this year, having held Wake and Virginia Tech to 2.3 and 2.5 yards per carry, so Marshall might need Fancher to be effective for them to cover this. Marshall's defense also ranks only 103rd against the run despite playing pretty weak competition. ODU would probably be in their best interest to keep it on the ground as their QB Grant Wilson has been sacked 18(!!) times in the past two weeks, including 8 by Texas A&M Commerce last week. If Wilson can get his passes off, he's been ok on a per attempt basis, but they've been getting killed by negative plays. Their RBs have been good, averaging 6 yards per carry, so they might have good success there. Even though the transitive property would tell you that these two teams performances against a common opponent(VT) would suggest you play Marshall here, the Herd's anemic ATS record as a home favorite under Huff and some pretty good matchups on both sides of the ball lead me to the dog here. Hope Dollaz agrees.
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I do agee. Im guessing they go with the backup QB today. He looked ok, doesnt have the running ability but his accuracy was better.

They have to make the QB beat them. Dont allow big plays by Ali.

On offense, the biggest issue is sacks and its a combo of OL, WR, and QB. Just need to get the ball our.

I think Marshall is a bit overhyped. I think it will be competitive and we may pull it out.
 
13. @TCU -13 v West Virginia: The Mountaineers come into this game 3-1, which is good for those steely eyed souls who took the over on their team total of 4.5, and I'd assume that start has raised some eyebrows. After getting handled in the opener by Penn State in Happy Valley, they've run off some nice wins, including a win at home as a 6 point dog against Texas Tech last week. They also slogged past a Pitt team that couldn't get anything going a couple weeks earlier. Though these haven't been patsies, they were good matchups for West Virginia for how they want to play. I think that's all going to end this week, as they finally get out of the Appalachians and travel to play a team that's going to get them out of their comfort zone. WV got some momentum last year by concentrating on running behind their big line with Cj Donaldson and QB Garrett Greene and it worked well, as they competed and even pulled off a couple of upsets at the end of the year doing that. They found a way to much up the game at home with Texas Tech, but I don't know how they are going to do that in Ft Worth, especially since Greene is still highly questionable for this game. If backup Nico Marchiol plays, he is nowhere near the runner is and is averaging only 4.8 yards per attempt. Also, the TCU defense is 8th in rushing yards per attempt and grades out well in their run defense on PFF. Even if Greene plays, I don't think it's a great matchup for the Mountaineers offense, and they were lucky to win their past two games when they only managed 211 and 256 yards of offense in them. I doubt TCU DC Joe Gillespie will have a hard time figuring them out. Offensively, TCU represents the best offense they've played, especially in this environment. I just think the Mountaineers are due to come down to earth a bit, and now that this line has come down to 13, I find sme value in it.

Garrett Greene did play and played well. TCU outgained WV by 100 yards but played tough and somehow shut out TCU on their home field in the second half. Obviously a bad call because I laid 13 and the favorite lost outright, but WV shut out TCU in the second half because they couldn't run, and there was nothing in either of these teams recent history that would suggest that being a likely happenstance.
 
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I started with about 28 or so games that I had circled but I either eliminated them because I couldn't make the case or just didn't have the balls to back some of these teams. Here's a couple I got off but thought had some merit and will probably bet some smaller plays on.

-Really considered Auburn because I think Georgia's lack of aggressiveness in the pass rush might make things a bit easier for Freeze to get some passes off to take some pressure off their running game. Auburn also has some great corners, so Beck might not have it easy finding open receivers. If Georgia has to run to move the ball(which they can) the clock will tick. Auburn looked so bad on offense against anyone with a pulse that Georgia might still be slumbering, and we all know about the Jordan hare magic. As bad as Auburn has looked however, 14 still looked a little light.

-Thought about Florida as a short dog since Leary just doesn't look right, and really didn't perform well against terrible competition, but Florida has been so bad as a road favorite that the risk of that line flipping was too much for me. If Florida is still a dog right before kick, I'll be on them.

-27 is a shit load of points for Penn State's offense to cover, especially if Ben Bryant can remain competent, but all of the trends point to the Nits being able to handle this.

-I wanted to fade Minnesota with LaLa, but at only 10, it just didn't seem like a good value at Minnesota's absolute nadir. They might lose outright anyway, especially id Darius Taylor doesn't play for Minny, but it just looked like a bare minimum of points to me, and LaLa has built their numbers on some busters.

-NIU is usually an auto play for me as a road dog and I'll probably do it anyway, but I couldn't find any info on Lombardi's availability. Their backup situation is very remedial and I'd rather not rely on that.

-Kansas would usually be a bread and butter play for me, but that line kept falling, at least last night, and I still have nightmares about what Texas did to those guys last year. I'm not sure Kansas looks at this game with as much urgency as Texas does, since we're talking about different season expectations here. I might regret it but I passed.

-This is the kind of game that LaMo sometimes wins outright, and I could handicap some advantages for them. They are a great home dog, Appy State is a terrible road favorite, etc. But it couldn't write up a team that ranks 133rd in several offensive categories.

-My moratorium on on Dana Holgerson prevented me from playing Houston despite rumors that Behren Morton might also be out for Texas Tech, leaving them with ??? at QB.

-Might also be kicking myself for a second week in a row for not taking the points with KJ Jefferson and Arkansas, but I wanted 7 and that wasn't coming.

-I thought Navy off a bye was a bad matchup for a USF team that might be feeling itself, but Navy's defense just wasn't quite trustworthy enough for me to play as a favorite.

Hope everyone has a great week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hope everyone has a great week!
 
GL today Brass!

Clones brought Joel Lanning for the trip to Norman to try to hopefully recreate the magic from 2017. Hope I can stay awake that long.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I don't disagree with anything you said there. Sometimes this is an art and not a science, but also sometimes the science wins out. I trust Elko here as having the superior staff, and like I said, until someone takes his lunch money at home I'm gonna continue to ride with him, especially when I can see the possibility of a tough spot for ND. They should have clubbed Stanford and Marshall last year under Freeman too.
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I think this year irish team is different, it has to be cause I’m normally a Irish hater and find myself betting then every week! I think it the Hartman effect. This team was in desperate need of a vet qb who not only can make all the throws, get them into right pats, but lead them and give the entire team confidence he will get the job done. Anyways hate being against ya but glad at least one of us will win!!! Gl
 
I’m with you on elcho tho, him and the cat at ku are doing fantastic jobs! I will say one thing, while I don’t disagree you have a coaching edge what elcho does best is confuse the crap out of qbs with a million different looks presnsp amd doing different things post, I think it gonna be a lot tougher messing with Hartman than w kid like klubnick. Imo if his d can’t win with disguise and scheme they in trouble today cause they not gonna win the physical battle imo
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. Pitt -2.5 @Virginia Tech: It would seem foolish to lay points on the road with a team that's been as terrible as Pitt has on offense, but when the opponent is Virginia Tech, and we are aware of Pitt's record under Narduzzi as a road dog, this becomes a must play. The Panthers have covered 8 in a row in that role and are 12-1 ATS as road favorites since 2019. Despite how bad the Pitt offense and Phil Jurkovec have been, I don't think that's likely to change. First of all. coming into the season pretty much everyone had Pitt as a top 5 team in the ACC, some, like Phil Steele had them 3rd, ahead of Miami and North Carolina. It's clear that that ship has sailed, but they can't be as bad as they've looked. The schedule they've played isn't a bunch of world beaters, but it's better than Virginia Tech has played, and all the Hokies have proven is that they can't get out of their own way under Brent Pry. They've gone to Kyron Drones at QB, which gives them an added element of mobility, but that's not the kind of thing that usually bothers Pitt, whose defense has been about as advertised, ranking 24th in overall yards per play against. VT has been terrible against the run, and as we know, that's what Narduzzi and OC Cignetti want to do, and after what they've seen from Jurkovec this year, I'm sure the REALLY want to do that now. 3 of the 4 teams that VT has played topped 200 yards rushing, and the one that didn't, Purdue, had 179 and finished off the game on the ground. Ultimately, its hard to believe Jurkovec can be this bad. If they are going to have a get right game, being in this role against this team might be the only way it happens for them. Their history indicates that it's likely it will.
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Even when VT has been somewhat better against the run Pitt kills them on the ground.

Last year Pitt had 326 yards rushing against VT
The year before that Pitt had 208 yards rushing against VT
 
Br@ssknux said:
I started with about 28 or so games that I had circled but I either eliminated them because I couldn't make the case or just didn't have the balls to back some of these teams. Here's a couple I got off but thought had some merit and will probably bet some smaller plays on.

-Really considered Auburn because I think Georgia's lack of aggressiveness in the pass rush might make things a bit easier for Freeze to get some passes off to take some pressure off their running game. Auburn also has some great corners, so Beck might not have it easy finding open receivers. If Georgia has to run to move the ball(which they can) the clock will tick. Auburn looked so bad on offense against anyone with a pulse that Georgia might still be slumbering, and we all know about the Jordan hare magic. As bad as Auburn has looked however, 14 still looked a little light.

-Thought about Florida as a short dog since Leary just doesn't look right, and really didn't perform well against terrible competition, but Florida has been so bad as a road favorite that the risk of that line flipping was too much for me. If Florida is still a dog right before kick, I'll be on them.

-27 is a shit load of points for Penn State's offense to cover, especially if Ben Bryant can remain competent, but all of the trends point to the Nits being able to handle this.

-I wanted to fade Minnesota with LaLa, but at only 10, it just didn't seem like a good value at Minnesota's absolute nadir. They might lose outright anyway, especially id Darius Taylor doesn't play for Minny, but it just looked like a bare minimum of points to me, and LaLa has built their numbers on some busters.

-NIU is usually an auto play for me as a road dog and I'll probably do it anyway, but I couldn't find any info on Lombardi's availability. Their backup situation is very remedial and I'd rather not rely on that.

-Kansas would usually be a bread and butter play for me, but that line kept falling, at least last night, and I still have nightmares about what Texas did to those guys last year. I'm not sure Kansas looks at this game with as much urgency as Texas does, since we're talking about different season expectations here. I might regret it but I passed.

-This is the kind of game that LaMo sometimes wins outright, and I could handicap some advantages for them. They are a great home dog, Appy State is a terrible road favorite, etc. But it couldn't write up a team that ranks 133rd in several offensive categories.

-My moratorium on on Dana Holgerson prevented me from playing Houston despite rumors that Behren Morton might also be out for Texas Tech, leaving them with ??? at QB.

-Might also be kicking myself for a second week in a row for not taking the points with KJ Jefferson and Arkansas, but I wanted 7 and that wasn't coming.

-I thought Navy off a bye was a bad matchup for a USF team that might be feeling itself, but Navy's defense just wasn't quite trustworthy enough for me to play as a favorite.

Hope everyone has a great week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hope everyone has a great week!
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Auburn has cost me money several weeks (props and totals) till I finally decided freese apparently forgot how to coach and I finally ignored them last week. I don’t understand what the Fuck he even trying to accomplish w that offense? I swear I watched every snap the 1st 3 games and it basically looked like he was throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks!! He brings in thorne from the portal who throws a nice deep ball but doesn’t let him throw deep, he has him running the ball which is incredibly awkward!! Then he takes out thorne and let’s ashford run on 1st and 2nd down which never works cause the whole world knows ashford can’t hit the broad side a freaking barn throwing a football! Then he puts thorne back in on 3rd and long and gets irritated he makes a poor throw!??!?? These guys he working w might be flawed but this coaching staff is doing nothing to set them up for success, it’s some the most awful shit I’ve ever seen!! And I thought auburn made a great hire bringing Freese in??!?!!! I dunno what the fuck is going on but if they score 10 points on Uga I would be shocked!
 
Dollaz said:
I do agee. Im guessing they go with the backup QB today. He looked ok, doesnt have the running ability but his accuracy was better.

They have to make the QB beat them. Dont allow big plays by Ali.

On offense, the biggest issue is sacks and its a combo of OL, WR, and QB. Just need to get the ball our.

I think Marshall is a bit overhyped. I think it will be competitive and we may pull it out.
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So maybe i lied about the running ability. 66 yard TD.


Wasnt the fastest run but….:)
 
Br@ssknux said:
I started with about 28 or so games that I had circled but I either eliminated them because I couldn't make the case or just didn't have the balls to back some of these teams. Here's a couple I got off but thought had some merit and will probably bet some smaller plays on.

-Really considered Auburn because I think Georgia's lack of aggressiveness in the pass rush might make things a bit easier for Freeze to get some passes off to take some pressure off their running game. Auburn also has some great corners, so Beck might not have it easy finding open receivers. If Georgia has to run to move the ball(which they can) the clock will tick. Auburn looked so bad on offense against anyone with a pulse that Georgia might still be slumbering, and we all know about the Jordan hare magic. As bad as Auburn has looked however, 14 still looked a little light.

-Thought about Florida as a short dog since Leary just doesn't look right, and really didn't perform well against terrible competition, but Florida has been so bad as a road favorite that the risk of that line flipping was too much for me. If Florida is still a dog right before kick, I'll be on them.

-27 is a shit load of points for Penn State's offense to cover, especially if Ben Bryant can remain competent, but all of the trends point to the Nits being able to handle this.

-I wanted to fade Minnesota with LaLa, but at only 10, it just didn't seem like a good value at Minnesota's absolute nadir. They might lose outright anyway, especially id Darius Taylor doesn't play for Minny, but it just looked like a bare minimum of points to me, and LaLa has built their numbers on some busters.

-NIU is usually an auto play for me as a road dog and I'll probably do it anyway, but I couldn't find any info on Lombardi's availability. Their backup situation is very remedial and I'd rather not rely on that.

-Kansas would usually be a bread and butter play for me, but that line kept falling, at least last night, and I still have nightmares about what Texas did to those guys last year. I'm not sure Kansas looks at this game with as much urgency as Texas does, since we're talking about different season expectations here. I might regret it but I passed.

-This is the kind of game that LaMo sometimes wins outright, and I could handicap some advantages for them. They are a great home dog, Appy State is a terrible road favorite, etc. But it couldn't write up a team that ranks 133rd in several offensive categories.

-My moratorium on on Dana Holgerson prevented me from playing Houston despite rumors that Behren Morton might also be out for Texas Tech, leaving them with ??? at QB.

-Might also be kicking myself for a second week in a row for not taking the points with KJ Jefferson and Arkansas, but I wanted 7 and that wasn't coming.

-I thought Navy off a bye was a bad matchup for a USF team that might be feeling itself, but Navy's defense just wasn't quite trustworthy enough for me to play as a favorite.

Hope everyone has a great week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hope everyone has a great week!
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Love this post.

I like talking through leans and plays that stayed on the back burner -- win or lose.
 
Can someone explain what in the Holy fuck has happened in this UCF/Baylor game? I had some errands to run and this comotose Baylor team rattles off 23 straight?
 
When you've had as many of those beats as I have, you become almost Nostradamus-like in your ability to see them coming. As soon as Hartman ran for that miraculous 4th and 16, I said "Esitime is gonna run this in and they'll get the two point conversion." Clockwork. These front door covers are happening constantly. What a day.
 
4-9 day. Just a disaster. That Notre Dame/Duke ending just beat the shit out of me. I'll add some comments to the posts with the plays to see if I can make sense of it. On to next week I guess.
 
Brutal ending in Duke. Happens to the best of us. Onward and upward - looking forward to next week we still got a lot of season
 
M.W. said:
I was on three of those moneylines. Some really good bets that couldn’t quite finish.
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Terry Bowden’s record as a home dog of 7+ is remarkable. Do you know he studied at Oxford, and not the one in Mississippi or Ohio. I’ll be looking to play that angle in the future.
 
M.W. said:
Terry Bowden’s record as a home dog of 7+ is remarkable. Do you know he studied at Oxford, and not the one in Mississippi or Ohio. I’ll be looking to play that angle in the future.
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Wow. I did not know that he studied at Oxford. That is incredible. He's also got a law degree and an accounting degree. Thanks for motivating me to look him up. It took a 54 yard FG at the gun to beat him last night.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4-9 day. Just a disaster. That Notre Dame/Duke ending just beat the shit out of me. I'll add some comments to the posts with the plays to see if I can make sense of it. On to next week I guess.
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Same exact thing happened to Duke last night that happened to N Dame last week and for the same reason--the coaching staff has the game won playing an aggressive defense then, with the game on the line, on the most important play of the game, switches to a prevent defense.

The irony last night was that Herbstreit was talking about how happy he was to see Duke was still playing aggressive. Just as he said, "Duke says this is who we are and we are going to live or die playing our hardest and sticking to our guns..." Duke switches to the prevent and only rushes three guys. Every other Duke player was at least 20 yards from the line of scrimmage on a 4th and 16 so when Hartman took off running he didn't even encounter a defender till he was at the first down marker

I will never understand the logic of putting your team into position so they almost have the game cinched playing defense one way, then on the most important play, switching to a soft defense that gives the QB as much time as he needs.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Wow. I did not know that he studied at Oxford. That is incredible. He's also got a law degree and an accounting degree. Thanks for motivating me to look him up. It took a 54 yard FG at the gun to beat him last night.
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I did not know how it ended. I had a pretty big bet on the moneyline in addition to taking the points. I got that info about Bowden from a Buckeye at the Eleven Warriors website who was commenting about him being an analyst at Clemson for a while. The fact that even I can learn stuff about Clemson at that site tells you how obsessed those guys are with Clemson.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4-9 day. Just a disaster. That Notre Dame/Duke ending just beat the shit out of me. I'll add some comments to the posts with the plays to see if I can make sense of it. On to next week I guess.
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That was a cruel beat there, Duke arguably outplayed them and then just give up the big scramble and only rush 3 guys. I was very disappointed for Duke, they deserved the win.
 
nice call on purdue - I am shocked illinois has fallen off a cliff so much - they have completely lost their brand identity of being a run first team........i expected the secondary to have growing pains but the line play has been drastic
 
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