NBA 10/30 thru 11/3

ATLHawksBandwagon

ATLHawksBandwagon

Two-Shot Foul
Glad to be back this year, it's nice to see a lot of the same faces, err, usernames back ... it means most people didn't go broke last year, which is good. Got a fews plays to kick off the season.


Lakers/Rockets Under 196.5 - 1.1u to win 1

There seems to be some good value in the Lakers tonight, but I absolutely can't bet on or against Kobe right now. Who knows how they respond to all these distractions?
I think the loss of Odom is huge for this bet since Ronny Turiaf will be starting. I don't anticipate him playing more than 30ish minutes, but during those minutes, the Rockets will be playing 5 v 4 on defense. He will also make things difficult for the Rockets defensively. I know, with Adellman as coach, the Rockets are changing to a much better offensive system, but I think that transition will take time ... more time than the preseason. Also, the last time the Rockets played the Lakers, Kobe dropped 53 on them ... The first time they played last year Kobe actually scored exactly 53, the second time ... 20pts, one of his lowest outputs of the season. I know it's a new season, but I think defensive minded guys like Battier will remember that type of embarrassment.

Blazers/Spurs Over 189 - 1.1u to win 1

Hadn't planned on taking this until I read that article Rod linked to in his thread. The Blazers new style coupled with the Spurs lack of focus due to recieving their rings should translate into a fast pace for this game. If it was anyone else I'd probably fade the Spurs tonight since they start off slow anyway, but, since it's the Blazers, I'll stick with the over.

Beyond that, I don't like the spreads at all today .. I leaned Hou initially like everyone but 5.5 is too much. Utah seems good, but that crowd is going to be insane in the season opener, it'll be tough for the Jazz to match the Warriors intensity. And the Spurs is a coin flip, if anything, I'd take the Blazers.

Good luck to everyone this year :cheers:
 
have a slight lean on Over in LA, simply because Houston have had a home/under-road/Over bias for sometime now, but i appreciate where your bet is coming from.

BOL tonight, Hawks:cheers:
 
Season: Overall: 2-0 (+2u)

Didn't get a chance to post my early plays, damn trick-or-treaters. Here's what I've got for the later games:

Nets -2.5 v Bulls - 1.1 to win 1 :smiley_acac:

Bulls banged up with trade talks swirling around the team. I don't like them to be focused in a hostile environment.

Dallas/Cleveland Under 185.5 - 1.1 to win 1 :smiley_acac:

The number is pretty tight, but the Cavs are such a joke right now, however, they can still play defense. I think they can at least slow down Lebron and I don't worry about anyone else. Z is the type of center that Dirk can actually guard.

Denver -11 v Seattle - 1.1 to win 1 :smiley_acac:

Welcome to the NBA Kevin Durant. Durant has a bad ankle and Carmelo and AI will look to impress on ESPN tonight.
 
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Nice 4th qt by Denver ... 3-0 night, 5-0 +5 units to start the season. I'm ok with that. I'm not sure if I'm ok with putting the strippers next to winning plays, it might be too much, haha.
 
Season: 5-0 (+5 units)

Detroit Pistons/Miami Heat Over 179 (1.1u to win 1u)

This is not going to be your normal Pistsons/Heat game. BAR has been touting Detroit's faster paced offense for awhile now, he knows a little bit about the Pistons, so I guess I'll trust him on that. Beyond the change in philosophy, these teams offenses are missing key parts, so I don't expect many slow offensive sets. The Pistons don't want to slow the game down and allow Shaq to take over. I expect Jason Williams, paired with Ricky Davis and with Wade out, to look a little more like the White Chocolate of old. Initially, I was worried about Rip being out, but his defense will be missed and his absence might make for a more wide open type game, as well. I realize the under is 9-1 in its last 10 in Det/Miami games, but this is a completely different Heat team. Piston might also be out to make a statement with people sleeping on them this year.

Utah Jazz -3 v Houston Rockets (1.1 u to win 1)

The Jazz and Rockets played 11 games against each other last year, Utah went 8-3 ATS in those games, covering all 5 at home. The Jazz are basically the same team as last year, just a year older for Deron Williams, who I expect to dominate tonight. The Rockets personnel is basically the same as well, but they are trying to work out the kinks in their new flashy offensive system. So, I like the team with the established system to cover against the team in transition; transitioning to a pace that is similar to the Jazz. Also, it's Utah's first home game, where they dominate. They were 31-10 at home last year ... 3rd best in the NBA. I expect a crazy crowd.

BOL today everyone, I'll probably look to add the over in Utah, and maybe the Suns.
 
Season: 5-2 (+2.8u)

Atlanta Hawks/Dallas Mavs Over 192 (2.2u to win 2)

Initially I wondered how the hell this total could be so low, but then I got smart. The Hawks were the lowest scoring team in the league last year at 93 ppg and the Mavs just killed the Cavs and only put up 92. So, there's a lot of value in this line for me. The Hawks are playing the fast paced style they couldn't last year due to injury. They did it all preseason. Last year, the Hawks were the most injured team in the league so their offense was a disaster. Now, the main guys are healthy (minus Zaza, but that helps the over) and they're playing well. Marvin Williams led the team in scoring this preseason and Smith, Childress, and JJ all averaged over 15ppg. This team has been on fire and is confident, so I don't see the blowout happening to kill the total.
With Zaza out, Horford will be starting at center, so the Hawks have no choice but to run. It's the only style they can play with this lineup. Dirk should be able to get whatever he wants offensively, although, I can see these smaller guys giving him trouble like GSW. The Hawks saw how many problems the Warriors give the Mavs, so I expect a similar chaotic pace.

Anthony Johnson starting at point is my only major worry as far as the Hawks are concerned, he's not exactly the ideal player to run a fastbreak offense, but Acie Law and Lue will see plenty of time as they try and sort out the rotation at PG. Johnson know if he wants to win the job he has to push the ball, I think the competition at point should help the pace, since they all know what type of style the coaching staff favors this year. The other worry is Eddie Jones playing so much for the Mavs, he doesn't offer much offensively, and could potentially give JJ some trouble .. Joe Johnson also shot under 40% this preseason. I, however, don't worry about Joe Johnson stepping up in big game/moments; so that doesn't really worry me ... he's a gamer, but I'm trying to be as balanced as possible here, haha.

I'll also be on the Hawks ML, but I'm going to hold off on posting Hawks plays for when I see a really good spot, though I like this spot a lot, I'm going to wait to see them play to step out. I also plan on pointing out when the Hawks are likely to get their ass kicked, I won't post it as a play, but I'll point it out since I think it could be helpful. Around 80% of people are on the mavs according to wagerline and sportsinsights, but the line hasn't budged ... that's a great sign for the ML, spread, and the over since a blowout is my biggest fear with that.

I'll have a couple more, but I just wanted to get this posted early, since I've been planning on hitting it since I saw the line ... BOL Everyone :cheers:
 
still confident in that over? see what that dallas d did to the cavs?
 
Other Plays:

Miami Heat/Indiana Pacers Over 191 (1.1u to win 1)

Played the Heat Over last night but lost even though the opening pace was inasnely fast. I expect something similar to the pace in the 1Q yesterday since the Pacers aren't exactly the Pistons defensively and this new set of refs might actually be calling fouls. The Pistons only got called for 14 fouls last night ... that's gotta be one of the lowest totals ever in a game involving Shaq.

New York Knicks +5 v Cleveland Cavs (1.1u to win 1)

I actually like the makeup of this Knicks team this year, as opposed to the Cavs which is horrific. I think the Knicks should be a decent bet until they implode with all the headcases on that team.

Should have a couple more on the later games ... Go Hawks
 
nice to see some info on the Hawks this year - gives me a much better picture of your team. BOL tonight ATL.
 
Played the Hawks at +6 and The Magic at -3.5 I am gonna take it real slow this year until I can get a feel for the season.
 
I wanted Knicks ML real bad tonight, but it seems like eveyrone has the same idea as I did, which is usually not good.

GL
 
Trout- We've got some much depth this year, we just REALLY need to trade for a PG, since JJ recently came out and said the front office needs to make a trade to make the team a contender, I think it might actually happen. Like the Hawks a lot tonight.

Thanks Renew/Believe ... I don't care how many people are against the Cavs, they're soo bad. But it's pretty surprising that the public is choosing Isiah over Lebron, haha, that is probably a bad sign.
 
Line dropped to 190 but acie law is playing

guess the under got pounded late
 
Over hits ... neither team shot over 45% from the floor, or over 20% from three, and there were 25 TOs, haha. That was wayyy to close. Nice moose went my way in Cleveland, and I hit my hawks ML. GREAT NIGHT ... Go Hawks
 
Haha, thanks abcs ... betting on the NBA is really simple, hahaha. Mastercap, I didn't even see your posts about the o/u, my bad, I have no idea why it dropped like that. Whatever
 
Season: 7-3 (+4.7units)

Indiana Pacers +5 v Memphis Grizzlies (1.1u to win 1)

Chicago Bulls/Milwaukee Bucks Over 193 (2.2u to win 2)

Dallas Mavs/Sacramento Kings Under 188.5 (2.2u to win 2)

Can't discuss, I'm too busy "celebrating" Navy's win. My dad went to the Naval Academy, I want to beat his ass. It's sooo bad.

Good luck everyone
 
Not on any of those .. just the nets.. Been sweating out these cfb plays
 
I'm on the Nets too, didn't post it in time, but it was basically a tail of BAR etc, even though the spot is pretty obvious, I didn't look at it. BOL abcs
 
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