This is probably the most difficult projection the Guru has ever had to do. But here goes ...
No. 2 SHOULD BE Oklahoma.
But will it be? That's entirely up to the voters.
Logically, Oklahoma should be No. 2. But if the BCS is about logic, then it wouldn't even exist. And with all these voters - 175 in all, if they all vote - having foisted upon them a responsibility that they neither desired nor deserved, there really is no telling where they're going to go.
Nevertheless, they're asked to decide on the Big 12 tiebreaker, as the winner of the South Division will be determined by the BCS standings, among Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Whoever gets into the Big 12 title game will be the prohibitive favorite to beat Missouri and have the inside track to the BCS title game, against the SEC title game winner between Florida and Alabama.
Well, let's examine those three Big 12 South contenders, side-by-side:
1. Against Big 12 South teams: Oklahoma beat Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M - all on the road - by a +90 margin. Texas won all three at home by +68. Texas Tech won two at home and at A&M by +61. Advantage: Oklahoma.
2. Against Big 12 North common opponent: Only Kansas played all three and Tech won, 63-21, OU won (at home), 45-31, Texas won, 35-7. Advantage: Texas Tech.
3. None-conference opponents: Texas played Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice and Arkansas, teams with records of 25-23 and only Rice bowl-bound; OU played I-AA Chattanooga, Cincinnati (Big East champ), TCU and Washington, 20-15 (only count I-A teams) with two 10-win teams and a winless team; Tech played two I-AA teams and the other two, Nevada and SMU, are 8-16. Advantage: Oklahoma.
4. Head-to-head: Texas wants to talk about beating OU, 45-35, true, but this is not a pure head-to-head situation, it's a three-way tie and a circular argument. And just for logic's sake, the fact that Texas beat OU on a neutral field is a classic non-sequitur. You may deduce that Texas would've beaten OU in Austin, but nothing more - so essentially each team WOULD'VE won at home. The following is how these three teams did against each other, the research courtesy of our friends at Saurian Sagacity:
Oklahoma
Points Scored: 100
Points Against: 66
Net Points: 34
Total Yards: 1060
Total Yards Against: 844
Net Yards: 216
Texas
Points Scored: 78
Points Against: 74
Net Points: 4
Total Yards: 812
Total Yards Against: 1014
Net Yards: -202
Texas Tech
Points Scored: 60
Points Against: 98
Net Points: -38
Total Yards: 985
Total Yards Against: 999
Net Yards: -14
Taken in its totality, it's rather obvious that Oklahoma is the most impressive in the head-to-head results. Advantage: Oklahoma.
If last week's poll results stay relatively stable - given that every team in the top 10 either won or was idle - this is how the computer rankings should break down:
1. Alabama (.970), 2. Texas (.960), 3. Oklahoma (.940), 4. Florida (.880), 5. Utah (.830).
And the BCS standings would look like this:
1. Alabama (.987), 2. Oklahoma (.926), 3. Texas (.921), 4. Florida (.909), 5. USC (.797).
The biggest loser this weekend, without a doubt, is USC. The Trojans not only don't have a shot at the BCS title game, their AP title hopes also evaporated with Oregon State's loss to Oregon. By being forced to play in the Rose Bowl against Penn State, there is little chance for USC to claim the AP title, as opposed to a Fiesta Bowl matchup against either Oklahoma or Texas.
So, assuming the voters actually do their homework and not go nuts or conspiracy-happy, here's the Guru's projection of the penultimate BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Penn State, 8. Texas Tech, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. TCU, 12. Ball State, 13. Cincinnati, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Oregon.