Monday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Monday, August 18, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>11:35 am </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>951</TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>J Maine -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>952 </TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>P Maholm -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>3:35 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>953</TD><TD width=160>San Francisco Giants </TD><TD width=130>B Zito -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>954 </TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>J Campillo -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm (ESPN2) </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>955</TD><TD width=160>Houston Astros </TD><TD width=130>R Wolf -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+230</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>956 </TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>C Sabathia -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-270</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>957</TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Lester -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>958 </TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>J Guthrie -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>959</TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Angels </TD><TD width=130>J Garland -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>960 </TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>A Sonnanstine -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>961</TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>K Rogers -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>11½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>962 </TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>S Feldman -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>963</TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>J Duchscherer -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>964 </TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>N Blackburn -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>965</TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>J Washburn -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+175</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>966 </TD><TD width=160>Chicago White Sox </TD><TD width=130>M Buehrle -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-210</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Baltimore
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Lester
J Guthrie
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Tampa Bay
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Garland
A Sonnanstine
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at Texas
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Rogers
S Feldman
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Oakland at Minnesota
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Duchscherer
N Blackburn
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:11 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at C. White Sox
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Washburn
M Buehrle
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>12:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Maine
P Maholm
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>4:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Atlanta
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Zito
J Campillo
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Houston at Milwaukee
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>R Wolf
C Sabathia
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Baltimore's last 47 games of offense -

11, 2, 9, 2, 5, 7, 5, 7, 10, 3, 10, 6, 8, 5, 7, 1, 1, 5, 7, 11, 1, 8, 8, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 13, 7, 3, 10, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9, 7, 8, 5, 6, 11, 11, 3 & 16 run totals.

_7 totals of 0-2 runs.
_7 totals of 3-4 runs.
33 totals of 5+ runs (70.2%)


Their current 22 game streak of scoring at least 3 runs is their longest this season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore has gone 71 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 47-20-4 to Over during this period (Unders rate of just 28.1%), and are 18-0-2 to Over off their last 20 Under results.
 
Although that trend is crazy, I do like the under tomorrow with Guthrie and Lester. Coming out with an 8.5 total is also a good sign imo.
 
Minnesota has some ridiculous stretch of road games coming up (like 24 of 30). I expect the Twins to try hard these few home games they get since ChiSox have the easier path to win the division.
 
i dont understand how the o's can be + money at home with guthrie on the mound.

also like the angels to bounce back vs. sonnanstine with shields and garza on deck
 
sportjunky said:
i dont understand how the o's can be + money at home with guthrie on the mound.

also like the angels to bounce back vs. sonnanstine with shields and garza on deck
Click to expand...

because boston is only 4.5 back in the al east now. they can feel they are getting close, so i expect boston to be highly priced (even higher than they already are)

i agree with your thoughts on laa though
 
i think minny might be a juicy runline play tomorrow...theyre starting to hit the leather off the ball and oakland just plain sucks, especially on the road...
 
the white sox also look interesting... btw, what's up with the high line in milwaukee? pretty dumb getting around +240 on a team (houston) that's currently 8-2 L10...hmmm...
 
sportjunky said:
i dont understand how the o's can be + money at home with guthrie on the mound.

also like the angels to bounce back vs. sonnanstine with shields and garza on deck
Click to expand...
i had this at baltimore -115, but the thing you have to understand is boston has more fans that go to games in baltimore than the orioles do
 
I had mentioned this in one of cisco's threads a while back, but Texas has gone OVER at least once in every home series this year EXCEPT the first series of the year vs. Baltimore.

Rodgers and Feldman...11.5...I'll bite
 
linewatcher said:
i think minny might be a juicy runline play tomorrow...theyre starting to hit the leather off the ball and oakland just plain sucks, especially on the road...
Click to expand...

That Minnesota bullpen should be a big factor in deciding whether you really want to risk the RL...
 
A few stats for the Balty/Boston game -

Lester has 2 pitcher-of-record losses in his last 22 starts.

Lester has pitched 18.0 inns for 7 ERs vs Baltimore this season (4.09 ERA for games in Baltimore).

Guthrie has received 0-3 runs of support in 12 of his 25 starts this season (6 at home, 6 away), so basically 50% of the time he's getting "nothing" to work with.

In Guthrie's starts at home vs fellow AL East teams this season, the opposition has scored 5, 3, 4, 4 & 6 run totals. The 2 vs Boston were SU wins for the O's, 1 Push & 1 Over.
 
counselor said:
I had mentioned this in one of cisco's threads a while back, but Texas has gone OVER at least once in every home series this year EXCEPT the first series of the year vs. Baltimore.

Rodgers and Feldman...11.5...I'll bite
Click to expand...

Argh...went to 12...might as well wait to see if it will come back down...
 
Randy Wolf -

Last 5 road starts
WHIP 1.96, ERA 8.62, avg 6.60 opp runs, POR 0-3-2

Road starts this season vs teams w/winning records
WHIP 1.88, ERA 7.42, avg 6.16 opp runs, POR 1-3-2

Road starts for Houston
WHIP 1.84, ERA 6.10, avg 5.50 opp runs, POR 0-0-2, O/U 2-0

Milwaukee has scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 12 games, in 8 of their last 9 games not played at Dodger stadium, and in 7 of their last 11 home games vs lefty starters.
 
9.5 seems a little high in TB.

Maine/Maholm should be good for a first half under.

Got to like Maholm @ home
 
A's are 5-24 since July 13th.

Reds are now 4 13 since Griffey left.

Nat's are in the midst of a horrible run as well 0-10 last 10
 
As odd as it may seem looking at the over 8 @ Pitt .

Maine is not 100% he said he felt better last time out but he also had a huge lead to play with vs probably the worst offense in baseball. So he is a question mark to some degree but really one would have to expect at least 3 innings from there posion pen. Wagner had a setback so he is not coming back today. On the flip Maholm has been very good at home but the Mets have swung real well lately especially vs LHP so hard to imagine they cant get 3 runs on the board somewhow worst case.

Since April ended when NY faces a LHSP but throws a RHP themselves they are 12-4 over .

Mets away 8 or 8.5 totals 17-7 Over
Mets on Mondays 8-2 over only 3-9 SU
Pitt 10-3 Over on Monday

Granted since the trades Pitt offensive has slowed alot .

Both SP have had some rough starts in the day -
Maholm 4.79 ERA
Maine 4.67 ERA

Both teams have almost all of there best options playing . Reyes is sitting though and Moss is banged up for Pitt.

Probably take Pitt as well ...:cheers:
 
Maine to gut it out through race: Mets pitcher John Maine admitted in an interview with SI.com that he is not fully healthy. "For the first time facing hitters in 15 days it went OK," Maine said when asked how well he thinks he's performed since coming off the disabled list. "On the other hand, I'm not 100 percent. I'm just going to have to go out there and get outs. That's the most important thing."
 
Over does make Sense SN. I'm still opting on taking the Mets b/c of their 6 game streak and what happened last year. On the radio a few days back I remember they were saying how the Mets need games like this against weaker competition. That was their prolblem last year that they took teams too litely
 
Tough to fade hot teams but doing it because of Maholm's pitching . A team like Pitt wont hit strong SP like Johan and missing any hitters like Doumit yesterday makes it worse. I just think any close game late they are in trouble. GL :shake:
 
Garland better than Sonnanstine
TB missing Crawford, Longoria, and Percival
Garland was strong vs TB earlier this yr
Sonnanstine got roughed up by LAA earlier this yr

Why is the better team plus money?
 
Garland last 10 on the road was 7-3 but had 6 poor starts, 3 good starts and 1 average start. Anaheim 1-4 last 5 on the road and the win vs Carmona mostly due to unearned runs. 1-3 last 4 games. Andy on bad rest.
 
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Lovin the Astros tonight. Wolf may have some bad stats, but this is where the value is tonight IMO.

There is no major league pitcher who has an era of 8.62 on the road and is still starting, unless he's still got something, and thats why Wolf will bring home the cash in this one.

C.C> will struggle against a team that hits lefty's well. Sabathia was lucky in his last outing as he had a few situations he got out of, and could have easliy given up 3-4 runs. He's also only pitched against 3 NL teams with winning records that I can recall. This is the only that may beat him right now?
 
G-Man said:
Lovin the Astros tonight. Wolf may have some bad stats, but this is where the value is tonight IMO.

There is no major league pitcher who has an era of 8.62 on the road and is still starting, unless he's still got something, and thats why Wolf will bring home the cash in this one.

C.C> will struggle against a team that hits lefty's well. Sabathia was lucky in his last outing as he had a few situations he got out of, and could have easliy given up 3-4 runs. He's also only pitched against 3 NL teams with winning records that I can recall. This is the only that may beat him right now?
Click to expand...


Completely agree.

My book has Stros +290
:smiley_acbe:
 
thanks for playing devil's advocate, tuck. i guess it's angels or nothing for me, and i'm leaning toward taking the night off.
 
Barry Zito's lack of success this year is no secret as the Giants are 7-17 in his starts. In 16 of the 17 losses, the winner has won by 2 or more runs (94%). San Francisco has provided Zito with a mere 27 runs in those 17 losses - an average of 1.59 rpg. In fact, the average margin of victory in games started by Zito in which the Giants lose is 4.24 runs.

In San Francisco's last 16 losses they are 0-16 when given the +1.5 run line and additionally 4-39 in their last 43 losses.

This pick is a pure lay against Zito and the Giants because the statistics say if Atlanta (-240) should win, then they are highly likely to cover the -1.5.


Atlanta -1.5 -103
 
SportsNut said:
Tough to fade hot teams but doing it because of Maholm's pitching . A team like Pitt wont hit strong SP like Johan and missing any hitters like Doumit yesterday makes it worse. I just think any close game late they are in trouble. GL :shake:
Click to expand...

Prophetic ! To bad couldnt get one more run to at least earn a push . Took a shot with the Over thinking illogical and it almost hit . Sucks it didnt but how can I be mad ?? Mets end of a road trip already 6-0 one could expect a flat effort and there is a reason why Pitt is scoring 2 and 3 runs game it because they dont get big hits . I know early on Mets had 2nd and 3rd no out TWICE but could only manage a sacf fly and RBI groundout but thats a credit to Maholm. In the B5th Pitt had bases juiced 1 out and Sanchez with the middle of the order coming up hits in a inning ending DP. It happens with struggling offenses they find ways not to score even when its almost inevitable --think Yanks on Saturday well and Friday .. Anyway Mets allowed Pitt to hang around as the Pirates has just 1 mini rally all game . Of course the Mets pen comes in and gets into a jam. To bad they couldnt allow one more hit as they Smith got the last 2 hitters...

SF @ ATL-

basically seems like they are BEGGING for SFG money . Giants always look solid when Lincecum and Cain are dealing but they ar not today . SF is 4-0 vs ATL when they do and 0-2 when they dont both vs LHSP Hampton.

SF flies home after today so it could be a going through the motions type effort and if not there pen has been pretty bad all week .

Zito is had lost 7 of 8 when he started in the day think teh lone win was vs CLE . ATL to my suprise has hit LHSP well recently . They beat up Hamels , they managed a decent showing vs CC , they smoked Sanchez @ SF , they smoked Davis @Arizona and they hit Lilly okay except Cubs hit Glavine alot better . Mix in Zito's 8.50 day ERA and things are looking bleak . Actually allowed 4 unearned runs which brings him to 38 in 36 day innings ! Now Zito has been very effective on the road and @ Houston was looking good to an inexplicable collapse in the 6th inning due mostly to BBs and even HBPS with the bases juiced ...

Campillo had a couple rough starts recently after a long successful stretch. I wonder if the rain ppd hurt him pushing him back him day . Always a crap shoot with SP and changes to there plans. Anyway Campillo DAY ERA is 2.05 and its NOT a small SAMPLE . 52 INN 42 H 8BB 43 K 12 Runs all Earned 3Hrs

SF 15-30 in Day games and 28-16-4 OVER thanks mostly to bad pitching .

Now that the Mets game went UNDER think we see a low scoring Day ( GS was 72 and believe we see that sail UNDER)today after the past few especially yesterday. Alot of teams off season high outputs in runs or hits....

Zito limited vs current ATL group but solid 3-20 vs Infante , Kotchman and Kotsay all ex-AL players who probably faced him in his better days...Campillo faced no one of SF except Dave Roberts ONCE (0-1).....

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>6.88</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>70.2</TD><TD align=right>85</TD><TD align=right>61</TD><TD align=right>54</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>55</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.307</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4.01</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>51.2</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>35</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.247</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Now Zito is on regular rest and well that hasnt been good. He definetly prefers and extra day maybe two bewteen starts . Which is why he probably has good success on the road in 2008 because typically especially backend of teh rotation starters wind up going every 6th even 7th day on the road. Sometimes because of off days other times skipped to keep the frontline guys on theer regular turn . Whatever the case may be.....

Very key hitter for ATL here is Martin Prado who has been platooning at 2nd base lately . Past 4 starts vs LHSP CC , Sanchez , Davis , and Lilly saw him go 9-16 in those games with 4 doubles and 1 triple ( ven had a PH double with 3 rbi when Hamels last started but did not face a LHP ). Awesome to have that type hitter in the 8th spot as Kotsay also has hit well and with Zito struggle vs LH guess COx felt he was the better fit in the 2 hole. Kotchman has struggled in the NL but did bery well in the AL vs LHP. Francouer as well showing some life 7-10 last 2 games vs a LHSP with 1 Hr 5 rbi. He was 0-4 @ SF but 2-5 when CC started. So maybe signs of life from Francouer as he has enjoyed a terrible season which could be labled a disaster . Still just 215 vs LHP so far with 3hrs and 12 rbi in 135 even with the mini streak. Imagine last year 200abs he had 8Hrs but 46 RBI!!! Infante not you typical 4 hitter has hit well vs LHP , in day games and at home all around .310.

SF rested Molina and Winn . Remember 15-30 in day games so far and think that includes the 2 gifts they received from LAD this past weekend at home.

Traded Durham 323 in day games , Winn resting 306 , Molina 289 , demoted Bowker 283 ...Positives Rowand 342 , Lewis 297 , Ochoa 8-21 , and not much else on paper..

So taking ATL ML and maybe -1.5 RL just hate there pen as well but should be a few run difference ...but look into parlayin them with Balt , TB and maybe OAK or another of the big chlaks WSox or Milw ...Lean UNDER but cautious ...

BOL:cheers:


 
Zito 4-14 in day games as a Giant (20 starts /21 games) but my mistake his splits vs LHBs arent as bad as I recalled . Question Kotsay in the 2 hole ..
 
Blue_Chip said:
Garland better than Sonnanstine
TB missing Crawford, Longoria, and Percival
Garland was strong vs TB earlier this yr
Sonnanstine got roughed up by LAA earlier this yr

Why is the better team plus money?
Click to expand...


The thing is TB has done well filling in for those guys . Pena has hit some clutch homers last week 4 hits all Hrs(big 3 run shot yesterday) , Hinske has woken after a deep slumber , Aybar is contributing now both vs RH and LHP something he failed earlier at was hitting RHs , Baldelli is back to provide another option , Zobrist has progressed as a hitter more to his minor league numbers IMO , Upton seemed to get the message after the benching Sat really smoking the ball. They still have some quality hitters who can dop some impressive things and have unederperformed namely Upton and Pena but even Iwamura . As much as like Crawford he really was having by his standards a bad year and maybe Baldelli can relace what he was doing in 2008 . Alot of the TB hitters are streaky .

Now Sonnastine has made huge strides in 2008. Look at his past few outings and this guy is dealing . Maddon is raving about him lately . So despite Garlands level of quality starts since April I would rate Sonnastine higher at this point even facing a tougher lineup.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD>07/22</TD><TD>OAK</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>07/27</TD><TD>@KC</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6.2</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>08/02</TD><TD>DET</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>08/07</TD><TD>@SEA</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>7.1</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>08/13</TD><TD>@OAK</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The game @ KC was the pen coming in and blowing up his spot. He left with 2 out in the 7th had allowed a double inbewteen the outs , they make him IBB a hitter then pull him to make it 2 out 1st and 2 nd and believe a reliever comes in and allows a 3 run HR ...something to that effect ...otherwise granted weaker lineups but very solid outings ...the pen is a minor concern ,ostly because Balfour has had some hiccups after his dominanting stretch . Percival was shaky just about every outing for 2 months his loss hurts more because it changes the roles of the rest of the pen but really dont see it as much of a talent loss.

LAA is everyone fav team . Funny part is they have slowly quieted down probably p[eaking with home sweep of NYY . LAA is 2-3 L5 and really could have lost that game 3 vs NYY whihc it won 4-3. They won 7-3 vs SEA aided by 3 late runs in the 8th and scored 7 runs after trailng 3-0 . They lost when King Feliz started , lost when Lee opposed them , barely won when Lackey started and lost another close on on Sunday . Finally losing a series to an AL team which hadnt happened since TB swept them .

One thing is OBVIOUS Jon Garland has exceled pitching @ TB.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Tropicana Field</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>42.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>31</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.99</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.205</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Sonnastine was solid in 07 vs LAA at home but struggled in 08 which was a day start a problem area for him. Which TB is 5-1 past 2 seasons vs LAA thome losing Sonnastine's 07 start 3-0.

Oh and TB is 41-10 L51 at home. They just find ways to win ...

LAA is 8-6 L14 since blowing out NY in that series opener @ the Stadium . Since half there wins are by 1 run , they have 2 easy wins vs Olson and Kennedy , and 2 wins whic they pulled out late vs SEA in game 1 and vs NY went Giese left up 3-1 .

LAA just seemed to be a team who underperformed offensively forever then finally started hitting and it carried for awhile . They have just 1 300 hitter in Kendrick who has been injured .

Vlad 2/20
Hunter 1/18
Mathis 1/12
Aybar 3/14
Kendrick 3/20

All come in not swinging well . Figgins was 7/20 just above 300 but all singles , Anderson was on a tear but has slowed down leaving Rivera and Tex as the 2 hitters coming in doing well ...Itzuris loss could be a huge underthe radar injury ...20 rbi past 5 games Tex and Vlad have 12 and with River athats 16 of them....pen starting to show some signs of weakness ...Arrendondo pitched in 4 of 5 games last week , K-Rod got him some , Shields did his job wasnt lights out , Speir has had some struggles last week as well.


Just have to lean the home team until things change and Ihave expected them to but they didnt with the injuries .

41-10 @ home is tough to beat and you get them at a PK..??BOL:cheers:


 
pigeon said:
37 pitches in the first inning, dave roberts really set the table
Click to expand...

Disturbing trend with campillo . L3 starts now allowed a leadoff Hr to Drew to start the game , last time out allowed 4 runs to Cubbies and now 3 to SFG here. Settled down so far now at 61 pitches . Hopefully he keeps it up...have a feling if ATL WINS they do by so by 1 run but just guessing

Prado another hit ! lets go top of the lineup:cheers:
 
There is no major league pitcher who has an era of 8.62 on the road and is still starting, unless he's still got something, and thats why Wolf will bring home the cash in this one.
Click to expand...

I disagree. Luis Mendoza does not belong in the bigs, and his road ERA is 12.40. There are numerous reasons why a team with no p.s. prospects (admitting it to themselves or not) would keep around someone. The fact Wolf is markedly better at home is reason enough itself.


And as an aside, anyone betting Houston has got to hate Cecil Cooper...

In response to a reporter’s question about a potential sweep in Milwaukee, Cooper told the Astros’ official Web site, “I’m predicting that, I’m going out on a limb. You heard it here first.”
Click to expand...

You think the Brewers don't know this moron has said they fancy sweeping them? Bulletin board material that.
 
Thinking MILW wins well pretty confident MILW wins just not sure by 2 runs or so. I do like the UNDER most even with MILW pen missing Torres probably.

CC vs the NL 17runs , 15 earned in 87 INNINGS! Houston has never seen him except the vet AL guys who saw him often 5 or so seasons ago...

Wolf did struggle badly last time @ MILW but his track record vs MILW hitters is solid outside of Braun who is 3-3 lifetimple of course small smaple....Weeks out means Durham plays 0-12 vs Wolf ...

Houston is struggling vs LHSP the past 10 or so times ...Past homestand Unit just a 3 run jack in teh 1st ...Zito nothing to he fell apart in the 6th and got like 3 or 4 runs on walks and hit batter swith the bases loaded , Sanchez who was struggling 2 runs in 7 innings , did okay vs Ollie Perez , not much vs Johan Santana , 3 runs off Parra in the 6th inning , 1 run in 8 off Maholm , think 2 runs whenLilly started.....

So playing the UNDER and maybe parlay it with MILW the payout sucks though....just played against MILW in the series @ LAD because they were finallyfacing some decent pitching but they played better then expected so dont see it is a negative they lost 2 of 3 . Houston also won 2 of 3 after the break @ MILW and really Houston is now in MILW place as they just beat up crap competition IMO......

:cheers:
 
Cecil Cooper's prediction of an Astros sweep doesn't even last beyond the 4th inning of the 1st game.

Hey Cecil, better to keep that lousy trap of yours shut next time round.:36_11_6:
 
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