Monday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Monday, August 11, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>12:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>901</TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>Z Duke -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+167</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>902 </TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>P Martinez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-187</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>1:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>903</TD><TD width=160>Washington Nationals </TD><TD width=130>G Mock -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>904 </TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>D Bush -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>905</TD><TD width=160>St Louis Cardinals </TD><TD width=130>J Pineiro -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>906 </TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>A Sanchez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>907</TD><TD width=160>San Francisco Giants </TD><TD width=130>J Sanchez -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>908 </TD><TD width=160>Houston Astros </TD><TD width=130>B Backe -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>909</TD><TD width=160>Philadelphia Phillies </TD><TD width=130>K Kendrick -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>910 </TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>D Lowe -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>911</TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>D Sarfate -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>912 </TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>F Carmona -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>913</TD><TD width=160>Toronto Blue Jays </TD><TD width=130>S Marcum -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>914 </TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>J Verlander -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>915</TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Beckett -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>916 </TD><TD width=160>Chicago White Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Danks -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>917</TD><TD width=160>New York Yankees </TD><TD width=130>S Ponson -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+102</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>918 </TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>G Perkins -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-122</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Baltimore at Cleveland
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Sarfate
F Carmona
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at Detroit
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Marcum
J Verlander
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Yankees at Minnesota
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Ponson
G Perkins
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:11 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Chi. White Sox
Umpire: Chad Fairchild
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Beckett
J Danks
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at NY Mets
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Z Duke
P Martinez
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Washington at Milwaukee
Umpire: Marty Foster
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>G Mock
D Bush
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>St. Louis at Florida
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Pineiro
A Sanchez
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Houston
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Sanchez
B Backe
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Philadelphia at Dodgers
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Kendrick
D Lowe
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Baltimore's last 40 games of offense -

11, 2, 9, 2, 5, 7, 5, 7, 10, 3, 10, 6, 8, 5, 7, 1, 1, 5, 7, 11, 1, 8, 8, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 13, 7, 3, 10, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9 & 7 run totals.

_7 totals of 0-2 runs.
_6 totals of 3-4 runs.
27 totals of 5+ runs (67.5%)

Their current 15 game streak of scoring at least 3 runs is their best this season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore has gone 64 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 42-18-4 to Over during this period, and are 16-0-2 to Over off their last 18 Under results.
 
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Said this is the other thread but BALT posted consecutive UNDERS this weekend on Fri and Saturday . From about 1PM on the total in the Balt game was 10.5 up from 9.5 I believe . Alot of movement that day.
 
Nut, my stats are based solely on opening lines. Baltimore still doesnt have consecutive opening line Unders in said period.
 
cogenman said:
Why do they keep pricing Pedro Martinez like he's still the cy young award winner?
Click to expand...

Its some reputation but look at Pitts lines since the trade All near + 200 dogs so no real suprise when you look at Pitts away record and Duke opposing ....

21-38 road team
Mets 22-11 vs LHP
Mets 36-22 home...

basically get a team who loses 65% of the time away and a home team who wins 61.5 % of the time and nearly 67% vs LHSP ....

-190 equals IMPLIED odds of 65.5 %

Still on paper hard to see NYM not winning this game 7 out of 10 times which doesnt mean Pitt cant give them a scare or a close game...

Doesnt mean I would bet NY or pedro just at 1st glimpse price seems about right with Duke off a good outing on the road. Playing a tough team ...:cheers:
 
Someone posted at blankets that Perkin's wife is expecting a baby, so beware. I remember watching an ESPN game a few years back with a Boston starter facing Toronto with his wife in the same position, and he got shelled to shit, didnt last 2 IP.
 
PHI/LAD UNDER 8- The Phillies only scored six today because the Pirates have to be the most generous team in baseball. Don't be fooled by that.

Lowe pitches well against Philadelphia, and the Phillies have struggled against RHP lately. I don't see it changing after a cross country flight. Dodger Stadium is a good road park for Kendrick,so I see a 3-2 game here.

Indians ML
Brewers RL
Marlins ML/RL/OVER 9.5- Pineiro is very hittable, and the Marlins are tough against RHP. After a late night flight and a series loss to the Cubs, it looks a good game to fade the Redbirds.
 
Also Pitt just playing one game @ NY then off to Wash . After a long weekend would think they may be disinterested here . Long game on Friday and then 2 hour rain delay today making it a 3 PM start. COuld be a great spot for an under .....
 
how are the marlins only -125?

cardinals played tonight against their rivals and take a flight from chicago to florida. marlins are coming off a series against mets and phils where they played well at times and should be feeling good after the 8:2 win today.

joel pineiro has simply been getting tagged

june 27 @ kc - 7.2 ip, 10 h, 7 r
july 2 vs. nym - 5 ip, 11 h, 4 r
july 8 @ phi - 6.1 ip, 5 h, 0 r - cards beat hamels 2:0, go figure
july 13 @ pit - 5.2 ip, 10 h, 6 r
july 21 vs. mil - 6 ip, 10 h, 3 r
july 26 @ nym - 4 ip, 10 h, 5 r
july 31 @ atl (very depleted at the time), 6 ip, 10 h, 6 r
aug 6 vs. lad - 7 ip, 8 h, 4 r - pineiro is lucky lowe was pounded because the dodgers let up once they were down a lot

pretty awful stats there - that is 74 hits in 46.5 innings

cardinals haven't seen sanchez before and despite only going 5 or so innings, sanchez has faced two tough lineups in phi @ citizens bank and home to colorado in his return from injury.

florida is 7 games over .500 at home. they last played a home game on august 3rd losing to colorado. interesting to note is the marlins haven't lost 2 in a row at home since tampa bay swept them on june 26. WLWWLWLWWLWLWLWWLWL - of these 11 wins 8 were by 2+ runs, so the -1.5 +165 looks worth a shot, but i will have to give that more thought

my bet:

florida ml -125 risking 2.5 units to win 2 units
 
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Yeah, I'm off of houston. The over in cleveland looks so obvious that I might have to take the under.
 
Ended Sunday with a clunker so ..........my insomnia is acting up so.......

Pitt @ Mets :

As I mentioned its understandable why its hard to look at less then 100% Pedro Martinez working his way back into a consistent SP as a $2 dollar fav. If you step back though its real hard IMO to find value in the Pirates . Naturally if Pedro comes out and gets shelled there is value infading him but not much points to that .

Look at the teams before the SP:
Pitt shed some talent and when healthy will have a decent lineup still. At the moment Andy LaRoche missed a few games , Andy LaRoche starts a rehab assignment tmrw and Jack Wilson also missed a few games.

Pitt is 21-38 away this season and 3-6 on this trip which started @ Chi , then to Zona , then to Philly which was a long weekend that started with a 12 inning scoreless game and concluded with a game start delayed by rain for 2 hours. Now they have a makeup game from earlier this year before heading home to host slumping Cincy . Have to think Pitt could see this as a day off maybe at least rest Doumit (or McLouth) . Pitt has struggled on offense they twice scored more then 3 runs on this trip and the 1st time it was late off the Cubs pen on a HR . This weekend they had just 22 hits in 31 innings .

Mets won the series vs FLA but dropped the last game. NYM is 16-6 after a loss recently , 9-1 past 10 at home vs teams with losing records , 16-4 L20 at home (losing consecutive games last vs NYY) . Only twice losing consecutive home games to NL teams last time 5-15. Mets are 10-4 L14 at home vs Pitt past 5 series vs them and all 4 losses were Game 3s. Mets have won 5 straight at home vs opposing LHSP since Pettitte dropped them 3-2 . They are 13-5 at home vs LHSP(10-7-1 UND and 5-2 UND L7) . Mets are 36-22 at home .....

Pitt is 6-28 L34 road games when Duke starts as the dog
They are 4-18 L22 away when he starts vs a team with a winning record
He is 6-0 L6 Monday starts but imagine most are home.

His Day ERA is 7.58 but is better on extra rest which he haves here . As well as comes off a quality outing @ Zona which ended a string of poor starts. Still he has a 5.82 ERA away from home 0-4 record but team is 4-7.

Now the past 18 home starts with Pedro dealing the UND is 14-2-2 which is interesting since the last 8 meetings bewteen the two have gone OVER . Seems like a decent spot for an UNDER here IMO.

Pedro ahs been solid at home and Duke as I said does better ERA wise on 6 days rest . Monday afternoon game has to be a quiet ballpark .

Would hate to lay -1.5 RL but its of interest . All 6 road losses on this trip were by 2 + runs and the past 10 road losses have been. In the past 14 the only 1 run road losses Pitt had were with there best SP Maholm dealing. Probably interested in the ML because of all the trends that back NY here in what seems like a meaningless game for Pitt while NY in the thick of a pennant race starts a road trip after this...so getaway day for both .....

@ Milw there might be some value in Mock depending on lineups but it his 1st career away start. Bush good at home and especially in the day but has some hiccups on extra rest although his Jays gem was under the same scenario. Probably an under with Foster and a fay Monday game .

Yankee thoughts -
Yanks lost a tough one on Sunday but exactly what I said prior to the game . Yanks do no execute at important times and LAA has . Simple difference bewteen winning and losing and there were alot of key spots . LAA didnt hit many balls gard and probably got three cheap runs but they found a way to win a close game which NYY cant seem to do vs good teams .

Ponson is in groove now and has some good prior success vs Minny . Perkins actually putched very well @ NYY vs us but this was the game where Casilla I believe forgot how many outs there were and a 2-0 game was busted open abit. Yanks still failing in the clutch. Twins dont impress me much with the bats alot of BS runs as well for them . Ponson BAA is 25 points lower indoors and his ERA .80 pts lower as well. His best starts are on normal rest in 08. Perkins has been solid lately at home and his poor starts recently are tricky with the flubbed play @ NYY and he fell apart with a 6-0 lead in the 6th and 7th inn last time after starting well. 11-2 2.55 career ERA vs Twins as well..

Yanks have lost 5 straight away vs LHSP after a 5-1 spurt vs them. All season 8-12 away vs LHP. Also 12-8 UND ...

Early leans -UND and Yanks ...:cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
excellent point, pigeon

does the pitt/mets over 9 not appeal to anyone?
Click to expand...


I like it. I will play this one most likely. I am waiting to lock it in.Just want to see if it is pounded by the pub on the over. Hopefully the under is the pubs choice. I have a little system I work with numbers I created with the use of power rankings for each team in different situations. I came up with this for the Mets/Pirates game. If anyone wants to know I will gladly show what I do with the power rankings. I have them posted on google docs and will post a link for everyone if they want to take a look.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p<WBR></WBR>fY4RWLPLUkRbtH9SB_egCw<WBR></WBR><WBR></WBR>



Here is what I came up with for the Mets game

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 144pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=192 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=17>Pirates</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Versus </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Mets</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>99</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>104</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>101</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>103</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>100</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>108</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>70</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>110</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.92500000000000004" x:fmla="=AVERAGE(A2:A5)/100">0.925</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">AVG OP</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.0625" x:fmla="=AVERAGE(C2:C5)/100">1.0625</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>3.26</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>4.43</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>1.47</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>1.39</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.1103286384976525" x:fmla="=SUM(A8:A9)/4.26">1.11</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">AVG DP</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.3661971830985915" x:fmla="=SUM(C8:C9)/4.26">1.37</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="5.8258063380281691" x:fmla="=A6*C10*4.61">5.825806</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Runs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5.4385284624413144" x:fmla="=C6*A10*4.61">5.438528</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>TOTAL</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="11.264334800469484" x:fmla="=SUM(A12,C12)">11.26</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Runs

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Also seems like an UND runs grand salami type day ...

Marlins played well ? They lost 2 of 3 @ Shea including to a guy Stokes who was tossing BP in TB last year vs there #2 SP. Those Phillies struggled to beat Pitt this weekend. Marlins havent played well in abit now IMO. The most important stat to look at for Piniero is his last start . No doubthe was terrible for awhile but he is capable and has been good at times in 2008. Sanchez huge unknown coming off an injury and the weakest SP they will face this series . His 1st start couldnt have been any easier getting so much run support and Philly struggling lately ...

Big spot for STL ...have to research more tmrw...

Good nite all....
 
Toronto playing a road game off a home game this season -

w/Burnett or Halladay starting: 4-0 to Under, average of 4.00 runs/game.

w/any other starter going: 3-1 to Over, average of 11.75 runs/game
 
any thoughts about the yanks game after being swept and minny playing off 12 innings?

i know the yanks pitching sucks big time, even rivera lost

think the yanks bounce back after the angel series

thoughts?


Astros also look cheap

The mets should be parlayed with another team

Have a weird feeling washington sins SU
 
Detroit's last 29 games of offense -

9, 8, 6, 2, 5, 4, 6, 4, 10, 5, 19, 7, 7, 5, 6, 6, 0, 8, 14, 4, 2, 2, 5, 8, 1, 8, 2, 10 & 6 run totals.

_5 totals of 0-2 runs.
_4 totals of 3-4 runs.
20 totals of 5+ runs (68.9%)

They are 9-1 to Over off their last 10 Under results. They play Monday off an Under result on Sunday.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Prior to facing Oakland('s dogshit offense), Detroit had conceded at least 4 runs in 12 of their previous 13 games.
 
think the yanks bounce back after the angel series

thoughts?
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I'd think that'd be a common thought, which doesn't mean it's wrong obviously, but it does mean a potential bloodbath is on the cards.

Where is the one place Minny plays decent teams well?

Ponson's 3 road starts w/the Yankees
- vs a Mets team off a 15 run 1st installment of a double-header, and their effort died in game 2 after wasting 5 baserunners over the 1st 2 innings.
- vs Boston - got killed.
- vs a Texas team that in hindsight can be seen was about to pay the price for scoring so many runs over so many previous games (99 runs in 13 games, 7.61/game) - after this game they then scored 1 total run over their next 3 games.

Both the Mets & Rangers entered their Sidney starts off wins, Boston entered theirs off a loss. Minnesota faces Sidney off a loss.

That said, screw backing a guy whose wife is about to give birth. Despite the day & age, women still can die from that shit.

KANSAS CITY -- Twins pitcher Glen Perkins arrived in Minneapolis early Sunday morning to be with his wife, who was beginning to enter labor.

Perkins left the team late Saturday night, but expects to be able to pitch Monday -- his next scheduled to start. However, he could miss it if the labor takes longer than expected. "He's going to take care of the wife," manager Ron Gardenhire said, "and that's all that matters."
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Betcrimes, let me first say that I dont know baseball too well, I couldnt name two players on any team but listening to you talk about how Chicago Cubs win is dependent on their offense, I bet small amounts on the cards at plus money and the over at plus money last night. So I was wondering if you or anyone has stats or memory on if thats a 'safe' profitable way to go with regards to Cubs games?
 
A's now 3-20 since July 13th. The Reds are also a team that should be faded as they were 0-3 over the wknd & have had very few wins in the last 30 days.
 
catfood - I wouldn't recommend that as a practice with a long, if any, shelf life. The Cubs habit of winning games they score 3 or more in won't necessarily decline to a great degree from it's rather current dramatic heights, but I can see the concurrent Over bias for said games cooling off (just the same way I'd expect their losses in scoring 2 or less to see in a few more Over results via their opponents scoring more in such Cub losses).
 
cashflowmatters said:
A's now 3-20 since July 13th. The Reds are also a team that should be faded as they were 0-3 over the wknd & have had very few wins in the last 30 days.
Click to expand...

Reds now 1-9 SU since Ken Griffey left.

Scorers of 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 3, 4, 5, 1 & 4 run totals - only the 2nd time this season they've gone 10 straight games without posting a 7+ run total.

Over the same time frame, they've conceded 6.80 runs/game.
 
SportsNut said:
Marlins played well ? They lost 2 of 3 @ Shea including to a guy Stokes who was tossing BP in TB last year vs there #2 SP. Those Phillies struggled to beat Pitt this weekend. Marlins havent played well in abit now IMO. The most important stat to look at for Piniero is his last start . No doubthe was terrible for awhile but he is capable and has been good at times in 2008. Sanchez huge unknown coming off an injury and the weakest SP they will face this series . His 1st start couldnt have been any easier getting so much run support and Philly struggling lately ...
Click to expand...
the marlins are playing well, don't know how you could say otherwise.

on friday they lost game 1 to a red hot ollie perez 3:0. oliver has been the good ollie lately - last 8 starts he has went deep into the game giving up 0, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 0, 0 (1.95 era) striking out 57 in 46.2 innings.

on saturday they came up short 6:8 against stokes who they had not seen before, plus the marlins had the nutcase scott olsen who gave up 4 in the first inning before settling down. this was olsen's 3rd start against the mets and he hadn't pitched past the 6th inning in any of them.

yesterday they again beat up mike pelfrey for the second time in two weeks. july 30th - 4 ip, 8 h, 5 r and yesterday 4.2 ip, 7 h, 6 er. did you know the mets are 10-0 in pelfrey's last starts if you exclude the 2 starts against florida?

florida won 2 of 3 in philadelphia beating hamels and moyer, and despite lack of run support for philadelphia why aren't you giving credit to josh johnson and chris volstad? 3-0 (3.19 era) and 3-2 (2.67 era) respectively. same philadelphia team who went into st. louis and took 2 of 3. same st. louis team who was swept in a 4 game home set against the brewers. cardinals bullpen leaves a lot to be desired especially on the road against this tough florida team.
 
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MusicCityGambler said:
PHI/LAD UNDER 8- The Phillies only scored six today because the Pirates have to be the most generous team in baseball. Don't be fooled by that.

Lowe pitches well against Philadelphia, and the Phillies have struggled against RHP lately. I don't see it changing after a cross country flight. Dodger Stadium is a good road park for Kendrick,so I see a 3-2 game here.

Indians ML
Brewers RL
Marlins ML/RL/OVER 9.5- Pineiro is very hittable, and the Marlins are tough against RHP. After a late night flight and a series loss to the Cubs, it looks a good game to fade the Redbirds.
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i agree with the lad/phils under after looking at lowes #'s vs phils and think the fla game is a nice looking play as well .:shake:
 
pigeon - Florida's poor form off recent SU wins is not a great sign (2-8 SU off their last 10 wins). On top of that, they've gone 70 games w/only one instance of winning more than 2 straight (4 wins from 7/9-12, 1 vs an SD team going 4-18 SU at the time, and 3 vs an LA team which was busy scoring 23 runs in 8 games). Of the 14 other teams with certain/realistic chances of making the p.s. only 1 (Arizona) has less than 3 winning streaks of at least 3 games over their last 70 games (AZ has 2, and is the weakest division leader of them all).

You can't fault the Fish for not having any sustained losing streaks over the same period (which is why they're still in the hunt), but this "treading water" approach is more likely to give way to a sustained losing streak than a winning one. Good teams make hay when they've got form on the board - the Fish can't sustain any form.

That doesn't necessarily mean anything re tomorrow's game, but STL has given Pineiro nearly 7 runs avg of support his last 7 starts which is why despite average pitching on his part they're 5-2 SU in those games.
 
bc and sn make good points, but i still have to agree with pigeon on gm1. stl might win this series, but the situation favors fla tonight.

stl played their division rival at wrigley until 11pm or so eastern time, and now travel to play a team fighting for al east crown. stl has not seen sanchez (an angle i view very strongly thanks to a member at ctg) and stl's pen is torn up.

fla might be struggling in some views, but they should take gm1 against the cards. just my two cents... gl everyone
 
For you guys liking the LA/Phils under, just a couple of notes of caution before I hit the hay.

(1) Philly gives Kendrick insane run support: in 18 of his last 20 starts he's gotten at least 4 runs of support. That's bad? it gets worse.
For his road starts vs NL teams, he's gotten 8, 2, 9, 8, 5, 7, 6, 20, 8, 5 & 8 runs of support, that's an average of 6.60 runs/game not incl. the 20 run total (since it'd unfairly imbalance the average). Naturally enough, in consequence his road O/U mark is 10-2.
His O/U mark this season for total lines of 9.0 or less vs NL teams (h+a) is 5-1. Monday will be his lowest total line of the season to date.

(2) Ever since Manny got his 1st game in a Blue uniform out of the way, the Dodgers have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of 8 games. Kendrick is nobody's Cy Young and LA, off a couple of losses and facing a game that w/a win can take them to exactly .500, could be in just the mood to lay down a walloping (LA scored 9 ERs off the 12 IP they faced of his last season). LA has tended to give Lowe either no runs support at all or a wealth of it over his last 22 starts -

11 x 2 runs or less
11 x 6 runs or more
not 1 instance of a 3-5 run total

Which is more likely vs Kendrick? 0-2, or 6+? the latter almost makes for an Over by itself, without factoring in KK's insane run support. Yes, Philly faces Lowe, but Philly dont need to provide 4-5-6 if LA themselves are scoring 6 or more, and besides Lowe is off his worst start of the season: twice previously this season he's pitched at home off a particularly bad start, once subsequently well (7 IP for 2 ER) & once subsequently not well at all (5.1 IP for 6 ER). Here? flip a coin.

if the weather & Ump are good, the odds nice enough, and the line behaves itself, I'll opt for an Over bet.
 
past 2 am here.
sleep2.gif
 
It is common knowledge that the Twins have been one of the best home teams in the last five or so years, but I like the Yanks to bounce back tonight. Ponson is scary to back but won the last time I bet on him, and I think he could succeed tonight.
 
Blue_Chip said:
bc and sn make good points, but i still have to agree with pigeon on gm1. stl might win this series, but the situation favors fla tonight.

stl played their division rival at wrigley until 11pm or so eastern time, and now travel to play a team fighting for al east crown. stl has not seen sanchez (an angle i view very strongly thanks to a member at ctg) and stl's pen is torn up.

fla might be struggling in some views, but they should take gm1 against the cards. just my two cents... gl everyone
Click to expand...

Tough to figure how the Cards will react in this series IMO. Pineiro is auditioning to stay in the rotation. He has been ineffective and one more bad start and I think Larussa pulls the plug.. Wainwright is coming back and Garcia is a starter in waiting, now in the bullpen.. I typically don't like betting against a guy in this situation but certainly couldn't back a Cardinals play either.. I would wait to see status of Ankiel either way

This has no play screaming all over it in my book but I would defer to pigeon because he is the expert on the Cardinals..
 
Early unders for me so far and GS Under 83.5 .

Really only leaning towards over @ FLA and havent decided on LAD game which have over thoughts about ( pen situations ) and Cle vs Balt .

Also played the Mets ...

BOL . Be back in abit to respond ...
 
Garret Mock -

The two toughest things to figure here are how does Mock respond in his 1st career road start and how does the bouncing back and forth bewteen AAA and the majors recently effect how long or deep he can go.

I look at his stats and see some good things. IN AAA a ERA a shade above 3.00 . He did well vs RHBs with a 201 BAA. There was some clear droppff in road starts . He did have a nice 2.60 Home ERA and closet to 3.8 away with BAA rising 30 or 40 points .

His starts in the majors were decent . SF is light hitting but it was the LH that hit him Durham , Lewis and Winn . He left after some control issues in the 5th . He started with a 3-o lead but allowed a leadoff single and 3 walks sandwiched by an out to make it 3-1 and was pulled for Rivera who allowed all the inherited runnners to score .

His next start was vs texas. Solid effort vs a good lineup with 6 inn 8 h 4r 1bb 8k . Rough 1st inning 3runs on 4 hits but settled down.....

With only 2 LH for Milw Prince and Counsell it could be a nice spot for him......

BOL- 1st 5 inn under with some lesser plays on the above mentioned:cheers:
 
pigeon said:
the marlins are playing well, don't know how you could say otherwise.

on friday they lost game 1 to a red hot ollie perez 3:0. oliver has been the good ollie lately - last 8 starts he has went deep into the game giving up 0, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 0, 0 (1.95 era) striking out 57 in 46.2 innings.

on saturday they came up short 6:8 against stokes who they had not seen before, plus the marlins had the nutcase scott olsen who gave up 4 in the first inning before settling down. this was olsen's 3rd start against the mets and he hadn't pitched past the 6th inning in any of them.

yesterday they again beat up mike pelfrey for the second time in two weeks. july 30th - 4 ip, 8 h, 5 r and yesterday 4.2 ip, 7 h, 6 er. did you know the mets are 10-0 in pelfrey's last starts if you exclude the 2 starts against florida?

florida won 2 of 3 in philadelphia beating hamels and moyer, and despite lack of run support for philadelphia why aren't you giving credit to josh johnson and chris volstad? 3-0 (3.19 era) and 3-2 (2.67 era) respectively. same philadelphia team who went into st. louis and took 2 of 3. same st. louis team who was swept in a 4 game home set against the brewers. cardinals bullpen leaves a lot to be desired especially on the road against this tough florida team.
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I guess part of what I see is none of these teams playing well that you have mentioned and really none of them hitting much .

Look at the Shea series -
Game 1 : Your correct Oliver Perez has been outstanding of late . Its not so much that they lost its everything about how they lost. They had what was there best SP against him almost evening out the SP matchup . They had just faced Perez 10 days prior (also 4th time this year and history of doing better at Shea vs him then Pro Player ) and Ollie was so-so @ Houston. What happens ? They get 2 hit !!

Game 2: I understand the never seen angle but sometimes I think it gets taken way to far . The angle should be used primarily for young pitchers who have very good stuff or LHP who can be deceptive and tougher to pick the ball up on . It doesnt apply to every arm that is the game. Stokes is a 29 year old who was medicore at AAA and shredded in the majors last year with TB. Think 7+ ERA and 62 inn with 90 hits . So who cares if they havent seen him. To be fair his AAA starts show good numbers when at home and at Night but SHea wasnt exactly his home either . The game was 8-6 but it was the Mets leading the way jumping on Olsen giving there "kid" early run support so he can relax. Mets lead 4-0 and Fla chips away at 4-2 and eventually ties it 4-4 to whic NY responds and makes it 7-4 and 8-4 ...

Game 3: becomes a good spot for the Marlins once the drop the 1st 2 games as its tough to sweep divsional opponents . FLA has a good history vs Pelfrey and to Pelfrey's credit he was due for a bad start at home . Think his Home ERA was 2.25 entering the game which had to b3 top 5 or so in the majors at that point ...Fla wins what is a meaningless game in some fashion. Tone is set early when FLA jumps out early on NY and just coasts the rest of the way.

@ Philly :
Game 1 : I argued it was the PERFECT time for Moyer to have a bad start vs FLA . He was finally defeated but he wasnt even that bad. 2 runs in 5 innings . I had a huge play on FLA and I know all the did was strand runners until finally breaking through in the last 3 innings vs a bad bullpen . It was 2-0 game after 6 innings . Tough to lose when your opponent has ZERO runs.
Game 2: Another game where the bats are quite getting shutout on 5 hits . So outside of some bullpen damage the Marlins have managed bewteen 2-4 runs when it was a meaningful game .Kendrick was solid but is a very hittable SP . Which they did hit him @ FLA.
Game 3: They won against Hamels more then they beat him. Truth is Hamels came in off consecutive poor outings and his Day Splits in his early career just are very medicore when compared to his Night starts. Only 3 runs again ...Hats off to Volstad who was off a somewhat poor outuing but there is no doubt the kid is talented and capable..

Now granted you can say well they are facing good SP which is true . Though for me to say someone is playing well I would expect them to be doing unexpected things like hitter good opposing SP and they didnt do that at all . So there SP is doing well and I dont disagree with that but what made the Marlins leap into contention was there offense specifically there power and there is almsot no trace of it IMO. I will agree that there SP has done a nice job but thats about all . It also happened to come against a Philly team who has fallen asleep vs RHP for awhile now.

We can go back 21 games with Philly which is the start of the series @ FLA and see offense vs RH very minimal . Which begs the question is the Philly offense or opposing pitching ? Probably abit of both but more IMO on Phillies hitters .

4 2 3 2 12 2 8 3 2 5 5 0 0 4 6

Thats 15 opposing RHSP home and away .
The 12 runs is really fake. Campillo started last just short of 2 innings with rain delays and allowed no runs. All of the Braves beaten up BULLPEN.
The 8 vs Redding
The 5 runs vs Wellenemeyer also fake. If you watched the STL series we saw 3 STL RH limit there offense . Wellenemeyr was dealing and another bad BULLPEN in STL was responsible for the last 3 runs allowed ...
The 4 was vs Snell a guy with 8 road ERA who pitched decent ..
The 6 yesterday vs Jason Davis a spot starter and again most of it off the Pitt pen. They had 2 unearned runs i believe off Davis..

So Philly just not swinging well especially vs RHSP . That waters down what FLA SP and team did IMO....

I didnt think FLA played very well against COL who also has not played well of late and is a poor road team . They faced probably just 1 legit ML starter of the bunch in Jiminez and were dominanted . Rusch , DeLosSantos and DeLaRosa are all 5th type SP pulled from teh scrap heap.

Nothing FLA has done in the previous 13 games before COL which it was 7-6 in was IMPRESSIVE IMO either.

I am not saying they are playing poorly they are just playing so-so but getting good pitching .

With STL the PEN is bad but its more the closers role which Izzy was terrible in and Franklin has been medicore in . They have some guys like McClellan . Springer and recently Garcia who have done well and are rested here .

My point with Piniero is the guy has been terible for awhile I dont disagree . Its just he was pitching below his talent level and expectations. He struggled early vs LAD but managed to keep it together . Is this the start of a mini run where he strings together a few good starts ? Which is why I made the comment about his last start being the most important as this could be a turning point .

To which we dont what to expect from Anibal Sanchez . the guy can pitch but he is still coming off shoulder surgery and feeling his way back IMO. We just showed how Philly was struggling vs RHSP and his start @ Philly was npothing to get excited about : 5Inn 5 h 4r 3 er 3bb 2K 1Hr . His start was failrly solid 5.2 inn 6 h 2 runs 2bb 4 k but it was also 7-2 after 2 innings and 10-1 after 4 innings (11-1 after 5 innings ) and he couldnt finish 6 innings...

I am not saying either side is good value as I think this is a coin flip . Looking at the rest of the series I like how FLA SP sets up.

Volstad vs Lohse - sort of a coin flip as Lohse doesnt go dep into games on the road and his hOME ERA is quite better . Volstad can shut down a team when he is on but like most young SP you just dont know what to expect when he starts.

Nolasco v Looper - Again probably a coin flip but edge to Nolasco IMO ..

Olsen vs Wellenemeyer- Seeing how STL has fared vs LHSP and how well LHP do at Pro Player like FLA here depending on how the series shakes out ....

So really this is the one game where I could see STL with some sort of pitching edge as Sanchez is just an unknown at this point . The Cards could have a slight SP edge tmrw ...

The flight factor and fatigue might come more into play tmrw though ...as they may take sometime to feel it ....

Not saying FLA is a terrible choice only that its a huge risk IMO with Sanchez's form.......

GL:cheers:




 
Liking the Bal over way too much right now. Balt has been a run machine (BC's stats) and Carmona hasn't pitched too well since returning from the DL. Not sure what to make of this Sarfate character. Any info on him would be great.

Also leaning Yanks, CWS 1st 5 and Hous over.
 
Tough to figure out Carmona at the moment . I sort of throw out first's...like 1st start off the DL and 1st start on the road off the DL....so hard for me to weigh them until really this point when he gets a few under his belt . He was solid vs DET but it was after a long game which they blew and Carmona was excellent in day starts in 2007 . So hard to figure as I havent actually seen him pitch lately .

Sarfate I actually like his stuff alot and tend to like the 3rd start as key one for picthers who are making there ML debuts or the transition to starter . Ofetn times I see a young SP with 2 terrible starts to start his career and the 3 he sort of figures it out . Some exapmles might be Herrara on Pitt or Mendoza on Texas ...even Joba is probably a good example...

So big spot for him IMO. I really do like his stuff and he a solid power arm. This is such a better matchup then his 1st 2 starts @ NYY and @ LAA. Basically the 2 toughest teams or places in the AL.

I think his stats pain the picture I see ....very good fastball 93-95 MPH with life...

BAA is .214
57 inn 45 bb 58K ...

Pretty much what you expect from a young power arm...low BAA with alot of walks and Ks .....

Think this could be a good matchup for him as Cle is predominantly RHBs ...

Carmona still seems to suffer from command issues since his return and think start vs DET lineup was somewaht depleted....

Balt stomped texas twice and Texas returned the favor . Waters was ripped and sort of to be expected when he couldnt have been any better in his ML debut....Balt didnt have much of a chance yesterday but it was 4-4 starting the 5th when it fell apart....actually Bierd was the culprit

Big issue is who is available in Balt pen ....Cle a team weak vs LHP so Sherrill isnt as much as a concern as it might appear IMO...Cabrera went 2 innings which I hate 2 see..you have Castillo , Johnson and then Sherril who can probably give 4 innings and maybe some minor guys like a Walker or Burres could be effective for an inning ....

Looking at BALT ML , +1.5 and 1st 5 inn ML:cheers:
 
Thanks SN. Appreciate the input. GL with your plays.

More than likely going to stay away since MIL/WAS are getting ready to piss away my under. 4 errors just brutal.
 
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