Monday MLB Discussion

I've been out of town for a few days so I'll be treading lightly on the O's until I can regain a feel for them, but I wouldn't go crazy on any plays on Sarfate here. He's doesn't have very good control and specifically has trouble keeping his pitches down. Maybe he'll have better luck against the Indians than in his last two vs. two significantly better ballclubs (NYY/ANA) but even in his relief appearances he hasn't been impressive to me.

I'm eyeballing that total pretty hard. Getting a late start on the night games, but the OVER 9.5 does jump out at me. I may even play the first five innings OVER. Sarfate has never pitched past the fourth inning....
 
Trust me I know ATP. Just had a 400 $ swing @ Shea thanks to Mets bullpen . I could have lived with 5-4.

Frustrating as hell . I am probably the only person who felt Pedro would be solid here and I have a nice 5-1 lead after 6 innings and Mets wakeup the sleeping giant err Pirate in the 7th. Pedro's been fine all season at home even the outing that looks poor vs NYY he was damn good early on before things unraveled not so much for him as his team.

Push the 1st 5 inn UNDER {small} , lose the ML and game UNDER....

Then @ Milw have the UNDER but also wasted play on Nats +1.5 . More importantly had a big play on the 1st 5 inn under and 2 out walk , error , wild pitch and it was obvious Fiedler was gonna drive him in and did---LOSER for me on that ...So now left hoping I push the UND 8 after that 7th inning 2out debacle ....

Great afternoon....

Some days knowing nothing might be more beneficial...:hang:

:36_11_6::cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
With STL the PEN is bad but its more the closers role which Izzy was terrible in and Franklin has been medicore in . They have some guys like McClellan . Springer and recently Garcia who have done well and are rested here .

My point with Piniero is the guy has been terible for awhile I dont disagree . Its just he was pitching below his talent level and expectations. He struggled early vs LAD but managed to keep it together . Is this the start of a mini run where he strings together a few good starts ? Which is why I made the comment about his last start being the most important as this could be a turning point .
Click to expand...

This analysis is dead on NUT especially the part about the STL pen. You know your shit . To that point, it is dangerous to assume a bullpen is bad based on past performance if those lack of performance issues have already been addressed and corrected.. In addition to the ones you've mentioned above Mclelland, Springer and Garcia have all been solid. I would add Chris Perez to that.. He is from south florida, went to college and starred at Miami and is also fully rested for this series.. Larussa will allow Izzy to pitch in trash situations but he won't get a sniff of the 8th or 9th innings in close games.. All points you mentioned.. So, IMHO it is very important to analize the current situation of a given bullpen not what has happened and been corrected...

Regarding Pineiro, your point is also dead on.. He may be due for a surge based on the last 4 innings of his last outing. May not.. Coin flip.
_______________________________________________________
STL: RHP Joel Pineiro (4-5, 5.04 ERA)
Pineiro said he felt like "two different pitchers" in his past start. While he struggled in the first three innings against the Dodgers -- giving up a home run to Manny Ramirez in the process -- Pineiro settled down after catcher Yadier Molina convinced him to use the sinker more often. After that, Pineiro dominated and gave up only one run over the next four innings. His inconsistency this year has hurt him, he said, and he hopes to get that straightened out for this one.

_______________________________________________________________

Not saying that St Louis is a play or not tonight just saying alll this love for Florida is a bit misguided IMO..:cheers:
 
scdoggy said:
I've been out of town for a few days so I'll be treading lightly on the O's until I can regain a feel for them, but I wouldn't go crazy on any plays on Sarfate here. He's doesn't have very good control and specifically has trouble keeping his pitches down. Maybe he'll have better luck against the Indians than in his last two vs. two significantly better ballclubs (NYY/ANA) but even in his relief appearances he hasn't been impressive to me.

I'm eyeballing that total pretty hard. Getting a late start on the night games, but the OVER 9.5 does jump out at me. I may even play the first five innings OVER. Sarfate has never pitched past the fourth inning....
Click to expand...

No opinion on the total but when is the Balt over a bad idea??? These 2 SP combined for 15 starts with 12 overs 3unders....

You know we disagree on Sarfate so I wont say much. I think people overlook Yanks had just 2 hits vs him and 3 walks in 4 innings. While LAA was off consecutive losses @ NYY . The point about innings pitched (never making the 4th) could be moot here as we both said much different animal in CLE then LAA or NYY. Less pitches needed creates more efficiency which leads to deeper outings . His 1st 2outings wer 68 and 71 pitches which makes me think he can do 80 here which could be 5 innings even with his command issues maybe 6 if he actually got quick outs...Of 11 players who see decent playing time the Tribe has just 3 with 20+ walks ...Choo 21 and Cabrera 24 in less then 180 abs and Sizemore's 52 in 377abs....free swingers on paper..the other 8 have 115 walks (420Ks)in about 1750 abs....

I just dont see how CLE is a better team especially since the pen is in WORSE shape . With Carmona not anywhere near his 2007 level probably a fair price is about -135 CLE ..Balt is a better team IMO even though not off a win Os still 25-13 overall in series openers (9-1 off win but we know they dont win on Sundays) of which they are 21-9 L30 openers

Also CLE off a high sweeping jays in Tor to end a 9 game road trip so this is 1st game back......but CLE is 6-1 L7 after 7+ day road trips

OVER trends?BALT
15-2-1 Series openers L18
22-5-2 after a Loss
39-16-2 L57 overall (22-7-1 L30 away)

CLE over is 35-17-4 after coming home from a road trip of 7 + days L56 times
:cheers:
 
I like that Over too Nut. Wind is blowing in at a fairly good clip on weather.com (10 mph). Wish I could wait around for umps here, but I see a shootout either way.

Good luck on the O's. Hope they pull it out.
 
Thanks tee. Could use a pat on the back after that disasterous afternoon situation to start the week firmly in the RED!

Anyway my leans are :

Dodgers ML- Lowe good spot IMO. Bounce back after his worst start of 2008 , LAD blew 2 consecutive games in extras and the 9th when they had leads , Lidge could again be unavailable , past history for the SP vs opponent , Lowe best at home and on normal rest . Kendrick possibly due for a road loss as he is 10-2 in 12 starts. Philly struggled to beat Pitt 2 of 3 and had to fly cross country .
STL ML - As I said think this a key game for STL since the pitching matchups after tmrws coin flip are skewd slightily towards FLA.....Cantu and Glaus both expected to sit ........Ankiel questionable ...

Thinking about SF and UNDER - Lee's loss hurts vs LHP. Sanchez had a rough stretch but Houston really hasnt seen him and that should beneficial . Backe is a roll of the dice when you expect him to do well he tends to implode and vice versa. SF quietly on a mini run last week or so ...also think could be SF best SP matchup . Lincecum goes tmrw but opposite Oswalt , SF throws Zito vs Wolf to which SF has been terrible vs LHP lately , and then Correia vs Moehler ....

Und @ Det ? Verlander struggling a bit but is Jays lineup the cure ?

Und 9.5 Yanks - maybe Yanks ML - reasons simply Ponson prior success vs Twins 11-2 career 2.55 ERA with great track record INDOORS in his career (ERA drops 80 points and BAA 25-30 pts lower) . Perkins is LH and we know thats a Yank weakness on the road at times . They have lost 5 straight away vs LHP . Perkins did well at the Stadium till a mental error opened it up in the 6th inning ...just not crazy about Twins hitting lately as alot of big innings due to errors or tired pens type nonsense...

Did like the OVEr 8 @ LAD but seeing Lowes stats at home and on normal rest with Phillys struggles vs RHP puts that in doubt . Along with kendrick recent strong work on the road.....the bullpens for both are weak though and Lidge possibly unavailable....

Thats all GL !:cheers:
 
I like baltimore in the sense that carmona pitches a whole lot better during the day, but I also watched Sarfate at LAA and the plate discipline of players really killed this kid. I don't know the clev lineup too well, but i think if they are patient, it's not too hard to get to him..

Carmona is a location pitcher, so i actually think he may fare well against some of the younger guys in the balti lineup who like to chase the corners... It all just depends whether he is on/off, for when he's on, he gives up walks, but can display a brigade of groundball DP massacre..

If you play this game, i gotta think a parlay with clev/under or balti/over is a must..
 
Good stuff True . I liked what I saw from Sarfate vs NYY who was also patient as I said just 2 hits and 3 bbs that day. Good to know that LAA was killing him with there patience. Its to be expected with LAA but nice to know it was noticed by you.

Cle is not patient based on BB to K ratios:
19BB 42K Fransisco 239abs
19 65 Peralta 333
15 28 Carroll 171
52 65 Sizemore 327
21 34 Choo 139
16 58 Shoppach 166(Ks better then 1 every 3abs)
18 56 Dellucci 253
17 52 Garko 277
07 42 Gutierrez 192
24 46 Cabrera 176
04 28 Marte 112

Carmona throws the Wang like heavy , hard 2 seamer that can register in the mid 90s when he is on...

I will be on BALT ...
 
Excuse my stupidity those Tribe stats are vs RHP ONLY not full season....

Probably more importatnt though since good chance CLE could see all RHs
 
sidenote...is anyone else having the fucking hardest time getting onto mlb.com? it just stays "loading" forever..
 
all these great games...and i'm stuck watching yahoo.com's tracker instead of my mlb tv cause mlb.com wont load for me...damnit. lol
 
TheSportsThing said:
MLB has been working fine for me past hour
Click to expand...

damn i cant figure it out...it was like this on my laptop too. the progess bar for loading the page just slooooowwly moves along...the title bar and everything has changed to mlb.com and whatnot, just the page wont come up
 
well...i'll just hang with u fellas in here...holy shit baltimore ties it 7-7...runner on 3rd 1 out! they could possibly steal the lead here! i gots balt +1.5 rl...threw it away about an hour ago...there's still hope!

lol i need it considering florida had a runner on 3rd with no outs and couldnt score
 
CharlieBX said:
damn i cant figure it out...it was like this on my laptop too. the progess bar for loading the page just slooooowwly moves along...the title bar and everything has changed to mlb.com and whatnot, just the page wont come up
Click to expand...

That's been happening to me too lately just not today so far. My whole internet seems to slow up and come back and slow up and come back,. It's freakin annoying.
 
Baltimore leads 8-7

I'm leaning towards Philly in the late game. Scary I know but I'm wondering what can the Dodger mindset be when two days in a row they blew the game in the bottom of the 9th. Had they won both of those they'd be up in their division. Manny is doing everything he possibly can but they're still not getting over that "hump". I'm seeing a lot of ppl expecting Lowe to bounce back here.

Still not sure...we'll see.
 
A stat I would LOVE to have but I have no idea how anyone would be able to get is...what percentage of the time does a team score a run AFTER in the previous half inning their opponent failed to score with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs? I've referred to it as the "run it back" theory as the team that got the defensive stop suddenly takes the momentum and runs it back at their foe by scoring a run.

Off the top of my head I believe it hits even more when it is the away team that fails to score with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs...and the home team comes back in the bottom half with a run.

Anyone else ever noticed this? Just happened in the St. Louis game...and happened in the New York/Minny game earlier. Again, not saying it's a guarantee thing but i bet if someone could pull the percentage it would be about 60% of the time.
 
Charlie I'm on your boys tonight let's roll buddy

:cheers:

took the value with Pale Hose

over won't hit but I hope CWS will
 
yah...the pitcher in for Baltimore now is named Rocky Cherry...what the fuck...he's about the give the lead up
 
what the fuck?! Florida's Dan Uggla draws a walk...gets on base...brings the tying run to the plate...and then tries to steal 2nd...gets thrown out.
 
Juan pierre aint in the lineup tonight.....

<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="10" class="ysptblhdr" height="18">Philadelphia</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody2" align="right"> <td height="18" width="22%"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">AB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">R</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">H</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">RBI</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">BB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">K</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">LOB</td> <td colspan="2" class="yspdetailttl" width="16%">Season Avg </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Rollins ss</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.274</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> S. Victorino cf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.287</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Utley 2b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.287</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> R. Howard 1b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.240</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> P. Burrell lf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.268</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Werth rf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.266</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> G. Dobbs 3b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.309</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Ruiz c</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.220</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> K. Kendrick p</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.119</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr align="right"> <td align="left"> Totals</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td height="10">
</td></tr> </tbody></table> <table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"> <td colspan="10" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> LA Dodgers</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody2" align="right"> <td height="18" width="22%"> </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">AB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">R</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">H</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">RBI</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">BB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">K</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">LOB</td> <td colspan="2" class="yspdetailttl" width="16%">Season Avg </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> M. Kemp cf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.294</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> A. Ethier rf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.276</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Kent 2b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.262</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> M. Ramirez lf</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.459</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> J. Loney 1b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.294</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> R. Martin c</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.286</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Blake 3b</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.286</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> A. Berroa ss</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.210</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> D. Lowe p</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.178</td> <td width="9">
</td> </tr> <tr align="right"> <td align="left"> Totals</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td height="17">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Danks had 6 no hit innings, now surrendered a hit in the 7th, 1 out

get him out Ozzie

this never sets up good for the pitcher
 
two on now.

im goign to go out and get drunk before i catch the end of boston somehow fucking winning this game.

it may not happen in this inning but its bound to happen.

and then we can say, "THATS BASEBALL"......
 
CapTwo said:
two on now.

im goign to go out and get drunk before i catch the end of boston somehow fucking winning this game.

it may not happen in this inning but its bound to happen.

and then we can say, "THATS BASEBALL"......
Click to expand...

it is bound to happen yes. White Sox 6 hits but 1 run, Boston nothing until now and yeah, you'll see what happens.

But Houston did the same for me. Too bad I have the runline and they won't win by 2.
 
we get through this inning... (hopefully)

then we get the OD and jenks.

but OD has been shaky of late
 
CharlieBX said:
ozzie needed to take danks out after that K...just fucking blew it for them
Click to expand...

We're talking trends, numbers, stats here. I want a stat which says how many times did a team have 4,5,6 or more hits through a certain point in the game (5th inning at least) the other team has ZERO hits, finally get to the guy and now THEY are in control of the game, just like that.

It just happens a lot, these momentum shifts rarely stay unused by the team coming back.
 
lowe is a beast at home, ridiculous splits... I think you would have to take the dodgers here for the SP and the pen is much better then Phillie's. The dodgers are a completely different team with manny too. He adds a presence that was never felt before... if they had one more big bat, this team can easily win their division, imo..
 
Charlie you know your team best, are they coming back from this? Do they care enough to pull a comeback here after Boston killed them (literally) throughout last season?

or are they fine with a series split here?
 
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