Monday Hoops Discussion

Marlo

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
Here ya GO SN.


<small>6:35 pm </small> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="35">601</td> <td width="180">Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" width="35">602</td> <td width="180">Boston Celtics</td> <td align="center" width="85">-10</td> <td align="center" width="85">194</td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#363636"> <td width="100%"><small>6:35 pm (NBA) </small></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="35">607</td> <td width="180">Phoenix Suns</td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" width="35">608</td> <td width="180">Detroit Pistons</td> <td align="center" width="85">-3</td> <td align="center" width="85">206</td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#363636"> <td width="100%"><small>7:05 pm </small></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="35">609</td> <td width="180">Denver Nuggets</td> <td align="center" width="85">-7</td> <td align="center" width="85">232</td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" width="35">610</td> <td width="180">Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#363636"> <td width="100%"><small>9:05 pm (NBA) </small></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="35">613</td> <td width="180">Portland Trailblazers</td> <td align="center" width="85">-8½</td> <td align="center" width="85">205</td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" width="35">614</td> <td width="180">Seattle Supersonics</td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#363636"> <td width="100%"><small>9:35 pm </small></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="35">615</td> <td width="180">Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td align="center" width="85">pk</td> <td align="center" width="85">234</td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" width="35">616</td> <td width="180">Golden State Warriors</td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td align="center" width="85"></td> <td width="45"></td> <td width="85"></td> <td width="85"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table bgcolor="#003366" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr><td>Line Changes Made Within Last 15 Minutes Are </td> <td bgcolor="#666666" width="1%">Highlighted.</td> <td width="98%"></td></tr></tbody></table> <small></small><table bgcolor="#000000" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr><td width="180"></td><td align="center" width="85"></td><td align="center" width="85"></td> <td width="45"></td></tr></tbody></table>
 
A few line's not out yet.

Someone wants to list LVSC opening numbers that would be cool.

Discuss it up, season it starting to wind down. Time to really selective. I believe a few guys nailed Detroits M/O spot on in Tucks thread today.

Find some winners.

My initial leans would be

Philly +10
Det-3
Lakers pk
 
Mario,

I know they're getting 10 but what makes you so comfortable with that bet? Maybe, it's their first game off the long trip and a big game vs. Phoenix Wednesday night? I could see that logic but you're still betting against a machine at home. Very dangerous. I think the line is probably set right. I haven't a clue who is to cover but as primarily a dog player I'm terrified to make that bet.

Det -3 - Now that's a bet I think is worth something. Detroit always shows up to play the Suns.

Yeah, Lakers line will no doubt look wrong once the score goes final in this beat down at Staples Center. You're probably onto something. For all I know you go 3-0 but the one bet which terrifies me is the Sixers.
 
I'll be taking a good look at both Det and the Lakers. The Nets would be the only other game that I could possibly be interested in. Just depends on how bad the Knicks are planning on tanking the end of the season.
 
Handy

Nothing set in stone yet, but after watching the final quarter of this pistons game, and watching the Cavs game from Thursday night. I believe the Pistons come out and play 2morrow night.

Philly is a situational play, Boston off a long road trip where they basically accomplished everything they needed to. Have a day off today (which because of the holiday I'm sure wasn't a true day off) and then get a team that is fighting for the playoff picture, that they have also beat by DD the 3 times they have played them this year.

Lakers well the beat down is taken place on there home court. I expect a little bit different performance 2morrow night.

Nothing locked in, just thinking out loud.
 
Philly/Boston

Boston returning home after a 2 game or more road trip, have laid the pipe to NJ, NY, and Seattle. The rest of the teams they have played anywhere between 3-8 pts.
 
Detroit is 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS after a SU road loss, when there next game is a home game.
 
The Pistons simply own the Suns. D'Antoni's offense doesn't work vs. Detroit's defense. I think it's a real cheap price for Detroit at home.

I have a funny feeling Boston may get clipped by the Suns this Wednesday. That's something I could see happening.
 
Thanks Marlo. I overthought the Was game couldnt understand what made that game move from 3 to 6? Just baffled me but I won money on it anyway with that 1st Quarter play....


Philly @ Boston : Few things stand out . Despite the lopsided finals Philly has actually played Boston well this year but equally as poorly in short stretches. Confusing? Well this will be Philly's last time to knock off Boston and at least play a meaningful few final minutes. Last meeting if you recall the C's started on some crazy run like 16-0 . Thats a huge mountain to climb even with 43 minutes left in a game unless you continually chip away. Anyway but late 2nd quarter Philly had tied it but Boston ran away again before half. The 2nd H Philly hung around 10 but dont recall a serious run. The previous game 27 pt blowout or is it? Sixers led 57-54 at half but were outscored 62-32 in the 2nd H and the 1st meeting when they were still the lowly Sixers? Again Philly led 57-52 at H but outscored 61-46 in the 2nd.

Very important IMO is the fact Bos is returning home from a successful 5 game stand which saw 3 huge wins in the Texas Triangle and nearly the W in NO. I tend to think favs play well for half and then fade so I would only back Sixers here for the game and 2nd H sort of contrary to what they have done so far. Basically a flat spot here..

Also look at that last game Philly had 24 offensive boards and won that category , they managed just 2/17 from three , only 24 of 35 from FT line , only 7 turnovers , and actually had about half the fouls 30 to 17. So simply the reason they lost was because they couldnt hit shots highlighted by starting off looking up down 16-0 ! Philly took 17 more shots but hit 7 less and took 14 more FTs hitting only 7 more....they left alot of points off the board IMO

So bottomline we have Philly trying to avoid the season sweep against a conference rival who they have at times played well against ,factored with Boston flat spot after a 5 game trip , and Sixers battling for there playoff lives. So far after 4 game trip Bos failed to cover 9.5 vs Houston and after a 5 game trip a similiar number vs Cle. So 0-2 off road trips and typically fade in the 2nd in both....

Pho @ Det :

So Det looks like shit for consecutive games now after beating SA , NO and Dnever and Raja Bell is questionable. Suns are playing real well and have been spanked by 20 and 30 in the last 2 meetings. In 3 of the 4 occassions they lost consecutive games they won the 3rd owning just one 3 game losing streak. Liek Handy says who is this team and what is there motivation? Do they need a quality opponent to show up these days? Seems that way. Sunbs 31-8 on 1 days rest and Det 9-7 on B2B. Everything about the 1st meeting seems fluky when you look at the pcts.

Tough call an improving Suns team with massive revenge or the team who loves the Big Kill?? Gonna say that DET cant just turn it on when they want no and with no momentum for them heading in lean Suns...

Note : Pistons 3-6 L9 B2B spots after 6-1 record in that situation..and not sure how much I weigh there recent games just 4 meeting in last 2 calendar years 1 Suns win and 2 DET blowouts.

Nuggets @ Memphis : Dont look now but the Grizz are showing improvement. Denver playing 5th straight away in 7 days all different cities. Griss have now covered 5 straight going 3-2 ATS and should be at least 4-1 blowing the Minny game. They battled back today but stand at 4-12 SU in B2B's and its worse when the 2nd game is away 2-9 SU . Recently they have had some trouble in Memphis as well. Nuggs bench is fresh but they played there 4 key starters 35+ minutes.

Not easy to rely on Memphis but situational a tough spot for a team who doesnt make an effort on defense.

Port @ Sea : Sonics have actually played Portland okay and that was there last home win and are riding a 11 game losing streak atth emoment. Wilcox missed last game as well. Blazers got LAC and think SEA is off similiartalent level so I am cuatious. Really dont like much here and wonder outland why suddenly Port is such big road chalk?? Very odd SEA won last meeting after the berak catching 2 now 8.5 , what gives??

So FUCK the NL games because injuries are best deciphered later on. Gonna guess GSW is -1 or 1.5 tmrwvs LAL. Thats what I have for now. Good situational spots for Philly ( and 2nd H ) and Memphis which line is low because of it. Also liking the Suns momentum and DET's lack of it....:cheers:
 
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has detroit played the suns with shaq? do you think he makes a difference? just throwing it out there. wow the lakers fight back.
 
EHS49 said:
has detroit played the suns with shaq? do you think he makes a difference? just throwing it out there. wow the lakers fight back.
Click to expand...

2.24.08 Pistons 116- Suns 86 in Phoenix. OUCH !

Truth is tough spot . Only 3rd game with Shaq they had a great effort vs LAL on wed which fell sort , believe it was Fri night where they followed it up with a sound win vs Boston and only to lay a GOLDEN egg on Sunday vs DET who was starting a road trip. All after AS weekend . Really cant make much of the game IMO as it was a tough spot in so many ways for PHO ....Right now Suns clicking on all cylinders and we saw how lethargic DET looked tonite I think teams who start thinking they can just turn it on soon find out it aint that easy....losing 6 of the last 9 backends is telling since DET was so good at that for awhile.
 
one thing i see in suns is that they are playing well each game. nash is shooting well from three. i'll take SUNS REVENGE VS DETROIT THINKING THEY CAN JUST TURN IT ON.
 
I like the Lakers a lot tomorrow. They should control the tempo from start to finish.

Regarding the Detroit game, the only thing holding me back is Detroit has nothing to play for. Now this time in March last year, when Detroit also had nothing to play for, I lost a big bet on the Suns in Phoenix when I bet on them to cover against Detroit, only to see them get the beating of a lifetime (well not really, but they got manhandled start to finish). Pistons had active hands, and disrupted their offense completely to the point that the Suns looked like a bunch of high school kids playing an NBA team. It's one of 2 losses I'll always remember from last season.

Reasons for Detroit
1) They need motivation to come out and play, and tomorrow's game against the 3rd place Western Conference Suns is motivation enough.
2) They've displayed in the past that they can really handle the Suns better than any other team in the league.
3) They're at home
4) Bell might be out

Reasons for Suns:
1) Playing to climb up in the rankings. Given the Lakers loss tonight they are only 0.5 games behind the Lakers for second. They would rather play GSW, Dallas (now that Dirk might be out) or Houston in the playoffs. That is a lot of motivation to come out and play tomorrow.
2) They have a day to rest and prepare against a team that always seems to beat them.
3) They've started to play well recently. Tomorrow will be a test, but they finally seem to be clicking.
4) The Pistons logged in some heavy minutes (except for Wallace who was out most of the time with foul trouble). This should affect their shooting% tomorrow.
5) Flip was interviewed during the game, and he basically said he doesnt want his team to lose focus, but at the same time, there didnt seem to be a sense of urgency from him.

Having said all that, I'd lean with the Suns, but the loss from last year and that the Pistons love to show up against the big teams is what is stopping me. Need to sleep over this and decide tomorrow. Might even wait till HT. Let's see.
 
SUNS game is simple-

Defense wins championships and games- That is why DET always beats PHOENIX, cause their style does not work vs DET. NASH gets abused by BILLUPS. DET has always beat them easily with DEFENSE.

However Phoenix is getting hot now and Detroit is cold now, so that has to be factored in as well. If you bet Detroit you are betting on the better D team and the team that owns the other team at a low home line.

If you bet Phoenix you are betting the hot team, rested for one more day vs the Colder team in Detroit.

So both sides have situational edges that cannot be argued with
 
I would look toward the motivation factor at this point in the season. Would that be applicable here?

I am asking the forum a question here, as I am still learning how to cap NBA.
 
Detroit has been awful on 3 days rest this year, so no surprise last night. Considering they own the Suns, I am surprised at all the early money on Phoenix. Can't figure that out. I'm on Detroit and Kobe, figure it's tough to win a b2b home & home. Question is does Gasol make a difference or did LA's comeback attemp take too much out of them?
 
Updated lines via thegreek @ 1030am cst.

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:35 pm (NBA) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>601</TD><TD width=180>Philadelphia 76ers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>+400</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>602</TD><TD width=180>Boston Celtics</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-9</TD><TD align=middle width=85>193½</TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>-500</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>603</TD><TD width=180>New Jersey Nets</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-5</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>201½</TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>-220</TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>604</TD><TD width=180>New York Knicks</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>+180</TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>605</TD><TD width=180>Milwaukee Bucks</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-8½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>202½</TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>-400</TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>606</TD><TD width=180>Miami Heat</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>+320</TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:35 pm (NBA) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>607</TD><TD width=180>Phoenix Suns</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=right width=45>+125</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>608</TD><TD width=180>Detroit Pistons</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-2½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>205½</TD><TD align=right width=45>-145</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>609</TD><TD width=180>Denver Nuggets</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-7½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>232</TD><TD align=right width=45>-340</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>610</TD><TD width=180>Memphis Grizzlies</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+280</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>611</TD><TD width=180>Sacramento Kings</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>+800</TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>612</TD><TD width=180>Houston Rockets</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-12½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>196½</TD><TD align=right width=45 bgColor=#666666>-1200</TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:05 pm (NBA) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>613</TD><TD width=180>Portland Trailblazers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-8</TD><TD align=middle width=85>203</TD><TD align=right width=45>-380</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>614</TD><TD width=180>Seattle Supersonics</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+310</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:35 pm (NBA) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>615</TD><TD width=180>Los Angeles Lakers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-2</TD><TD align=middle width=85>233</TD><TD align=right width=45>-135</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>616</TD><TD width=180>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=right width=45>+115</TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Line Changes Made Within Last 15 Minutes Are </TD><TD width="1%" bgColor=#666666>Highlighted.</TD><TD width="98%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
any reason why to not like the nets here? sure they are horrible on the road. but this is down the street in MSG. nets in the playoff hunt. new york tank mode. what u think marlo?
 
Im on Miami, think they might win thi sgame SU.

Also I took the lakers but I think it might be a trap
 
EHS49 said:
any reason why to not like the nets here? sure they are horrible on the road. but this is down the street in MSG. nets in the playoff hunt. new york tank mode. what u think marlo?
Click to expand...

not that you asked me....

I think there's pretty much no doubt that Jersey wins, but the Knicks might just make a showing for a while. I wish like hell I could get this at -2.....cus I think there's a decent chance that the Knicks keep it within 10. ...and I hate laying this much road chalk, especially with a bad team, especially on the road, and especially when it's the Nets............
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
SUNS game is simple-

Defense wins championships and games- That is why DET always beats PHOENIX, cause their style does not work vs DET. NASH gets abused by BILLUPS. DET has always beat them easily with DEFENSE.

However Phoenix is getting hot now and Detroit is cold now, so that has to be factored in as well. If you bet Detroit you are betting on the better D team and the team that owns the other team at a low home line.

If you bet Phoenix you are betting the hot team, rested for one more day vs the Colder team in Detroit.

So both sides have situational edges that cannot be argued with
Click to expand...


I disagree with DET always beats PHO because its not quite that simple. First thing that we have to take into consideration is these teams meet just twice a year . So this is just the 4th meeting since the beginning of the 06-07 season . Prior to the 06-07 season DET was the elite team everyone was chasing. So you cant simply say DET always beats PHO because back then DET always beat everybody. Plus the past couple seasons is when PHO rose to elite status in the West.

Now granted the Pistons embarrassed PHO at home this year. To put it in context it was the 1st week after the AS break , the Suns had played a great game vs LAL on Wed nite , followed by another tough grueling game vs Boston on Friday nite and then had to face DET who was kicking off a road trip on Sunday. Plus you have to factor it in this was Shaqs 1st week and 3rd game playing in Pho. At the time Det had slumped out of the gates dropping 2 straight and then spanked Milw and seemed to build some momentum playing well for a short period. However since returning from that 4 game trip what has DET done ?? They are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS. The 3 ATS wins are vs a sliding SA by 4 (-3.5), vs NO at home without West (only -5.5) and defensless Denver who has few quality road wins and was of a 50+ plus win vs SEA . They have lost @ Wash , @Cle and @ Boston hard for me to believe they werent motivated for at least LeBron and KG. They struggled vs Sea, Chi , Philly and @ NYK going 3-1 winning by 3,4 and 7. Now we have a Suns team playing good ball and starting that KEY 4 game road trip . Nice little role reversal this time around.

Previous meetings?
Last year Pho went into DET laying 4.5 and won with DET minus Billups. Pretty big absence but the line was also adjusted and covered. Nash had 35 , Amare 31 and they shot 50%. The rematch means DET has some revenge, right? Pistons win as 5.5 pt dogs but Suns still shoot 50% with Nash dropping 20 on 8/9 and Amare 24. Also DET was playings it best ball of the season and Suns were again in a tough spot having beat Houston a few days prior , and 2 days prior won a huge emotional game vs Dallas. This was a 3 or 4 pt game with 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter before Pho just fell apart with 22 uncharacteristic turnovers that day. You might say well fatigue is a stretch or an excuse but the next day PHO had to travel to Denver and played just as poorly as it did in the last 15 minutes of the DET game and lost by 24 thanks to a "comeback" aftre being down 38 after 3q. That seems like validation to me

So the DET defense is NOT so good and thats NOT why Suns struggle IMO vs them. The Pistons defense doesnt stop the Suns offense and Nash has exceled vs DET recently but admittely Billups absence may have played a role. The last 2 beatdowns and really the only lopsided games in the series have been largely situational .

The other meetings ?
05-06 season : Pistons win by 7 twice laying 3 and 5.5. So Det was favored both times and won close games.

04 -05 season : Suns win by 3 at home laying 4 & Det wins at home by 14 laying 3.5 but Nash didnt play ...sort of seems to me this teams were equal that season..

03-04 season: Det wins by 12 laying 8 and by 9 catching 3 in Pho.

Last meeting of previous season Suns win in Det by 3 catching 6.

Personally I feel that to much is being made of DET needs motivation to play. I am sure it helps but most of there "motivated" wins are backed by great situations . I also feel DET defense being able to stop the SUNS offense is greatly exaggerated and again this is why they acquired Shaq.

Real interested to see if Raja Bell is playing though because he has started to play like Raja Bell again. DET logged some minutes last nite but had 3 days off prior but still just 3-6 SU last 9 B2B's...with there wins being ATS so take the dog ML cause pts shouldnt matter..

So the question becomes is PHO now the better team then DET??? So far Suns have failed at NO and DEN to capture a key road win. However both ofthose games were B2Bs. Suns are now 7-0 L7 and 6-0-1 ATS .

Basically I have a strong LEAN towards PHO ML. I hate to fade DET at home playing a quality team but I think its an overused angle. They simply have not played well for a long period now and there 3 key wins were vs teams who didnt have it together ...SA was in a major funk , Hornets played w/o West and Denver was off the highest offensive output and MOV in seasons...

GL all!!:cheers:
 
playoff push 5 to 1 teaser :bong:

phila +13
nets -2.5
suns +6
nuggs -4
gs +6.5

phila lost to boston by 10, 27 and 14 previous 3 meetings this year. boston has a firm hold on the 1 seed (6 games) while phila is 1.5 games out of a 5 seed.
nets have triple revenge vs the knicks and are 1.5 back of 8 seed atlanta who they hold the tie breaker vs.
suns are the hottest team in the league. detroit is coasting for the coveted 2 in the east and looking at their role guys. suns also have 20 pt double revenge.
ai and anthony way too much for memphis. kmart will take away memphis' heart.
gs fighting for postseason and at home vs a lakers team they match up very nicely with. like the pts in what i see a close contest with gs again winning.
 
Maybe the lack of CBB has made more interested in the NBA or maybe I just see alot of value. Not so crazy about the CBB games which I am sure I will still get involved in because the numbers seemed real tight.

Anyway my thoughts are scattered bewteen this thread and RED's ML and Injury thread.

Games I am looking at :

Sixers +9 ( Sixers 2nd H ) - Philly trying to avoid season sweep and fighting for the playoffs . While Bos returns home from a successful trip . I think either Philly jumps on them like they did in the 1st two meetings OR Boston starts good with a happy to be home effort before getting outplayed visible in the 2nd H...

NYK +6.5 - Randolphs Status ? the rest in REDs injury thread. Again would be suprised if NY could not take at least one Half in this game

Bucks -9 - Okay MILW stinks on the road but they have to want this after losing on there home floor last week. Marion should miss and he did play the last meeting while Bogut has returned. They are 2-3 ATS with marion out but both losses were by 9 and 12 . The ORL game if the hit there FTS they would have covered . Typically a solid FT shooting team MILW outside of its star backcourt missed 11 of 16 FTs in the loss but is 73% for th season. Bucks are getting healthy as everyone from Redd , Mo Willaims Yi, Bogut , mason on down seems to have missed time lately. Like Memphis another team with aton of talent that could put a run together to end the year. Since losing Wade and Marion along with some key role players the only teams Miami has played tight were LAC and NYK. MILW at full strength is comparable to a WASH team IMO who just won by 17 and was 13 pt chalk....seems like a nice discount..also remember more then anything Miami lacks size say Hello to Villanueva , Yi and Bogut. Last meeting Marion had 12 boards and half of there 12 offensive while Bogut missed and Yi saw 13 minutes...should be a 15+ win..

Suns ML or +3 -120 : Think my feelings are obvious its either SUNS or pass arther then hoping DET can turn it on tonite.

Grizz +8.5 : hate to see that number get bet up but again I have to think worst case with memphis playing better vs a DEN team in a 5 of 7 spot traveling from Tor shoul dbe able to win atleast 1 half.....but I do hate to see a strong line move...

Actually no lean in the Rockets game with the 3 injuries. Houston will win just a matter if they cover DDs and chances are looking at the Kings tarck record if they lose it will be by 10+...some interest in Houston with this tightenin playoff race but dont recall if its 5 in 7...Under 197?

Port -8 : the weakest of my interest but looking at Seattles injury list if they can do it vs LAC why not SEA?

LAL ML or -2 : Some saw I how I "touted" the LAL 1st H last evening which I was wrong on but they showed a different effort is the 2nd H. Expect at least a better start but GSW is dangerous as home dogs and fighting for playoff life..holding onto the 8th spot.....naturally tough to beat a better team on B2B days let aone a Home and Home..I guess if a team would lose consecutive games to an inferior opponent though now is a good time since Gasol is OUT...to put into context..



Finishing up now and deciding what and how to play these...may sound starnge but I think MILW stands out the MOST....:cheers:GL
 
Good Luck Brewer !! and yo Jimbo got your PM and wish ya GL. Just ahvent cleaned that shit out yet....

Happy to see 7:35 tips here because i play ball at 7:15 today so I should be back in time for the HALFTIMES...

Since I have some extra time going to take an extra 10-15 minutes..
 
Quarter Plays:

1st Q Boston -3 -120 {2U}
4th Quarter Philly +1.5 {1.5U} want them 2nd H as well

Both strong some quick thoughts in his thread

Det -1 1st Quarter {1u}

Disagree with Tuck based on situation not his work. After 2 consecutive losses playing the hottest team in the NBA they must not fall behind and work uphill especially in a B2B start. I think PHO is better equipped to handle a defecit after 1

Port -2 1st Q {1u}

Fading Seattle. PERIOD.

 
Plays so far:

Sixer +9.5 {1.25units} hoping to get some 2nd H value based on situation
Knicks +7 {1u} - admit the huge line move concerns me approaching with caution
Bucks -9 {3u} small 1st H play -5
Suns +3 -120 {1u} looking for them to take control after halftime
Grizz +9 {1.5units} same as the others . line move concerns me but more interested after half.



Add :

2nd Q Suns +0.5 {1u}
 
Sport

Just put in my Sixers bet, pissed I missed 10, but have to roll with it. As of now only on Lakers and Sixers. Dont like all the funny movement in the Suns game so taking that one off.
 
I have to run...

2nd H
Sixers +5 {1u}
NYK +2 {0.75u}

Blazers -8 {1.25u}
LAL -2 -120 {1.25u}

Hous 1st h -6.5 {1u}
 
The more I think about the lakers the less I like it.

They're playing shorthanded, 4 in 5, 1st game of 4/5 was the big victory in Utah, they spent a ton of energy coming back last night (so did the Warriors, but they'll have the home crowd to fuel them tonight).

Both teams should be tired after last nights game, but you'd really think the Warriors have the advantage playing in front of the home folks.

Just can't put my money on a short handed Lakers squad playing a 4/5.
 
brewer said:
playoff push 5 to 1 teaser :bong:

phila +13
nets -2.5
suns +6
nuggs -4
gs +6.5

phila lost to boston by 10, 27 and 14 previous 3 meetings this year. boston has a firm hold on the 1 seed (6 games) while phila is 1.5 games out of a 5 seed.
nets have triple revenge vs the knicks and are 1.5 back of 8 seed atlanta who they hold the tie breaker vs.
suns are the hottest team in the league. detroit is coasting for the coveted 2 in the east and looking at their role guys. suns also have 20 pt double revenge.
ai and anthony way too much for memphis. kmart will take away memphis' heart.
gs fighting for postseason and at home vs a lakers team they match up very nicely with. like the pts in what i see a close contest with gs again winning.
Click to expand...

HOW SHOULD I HEDGE THIS???????
 
thanks Jpicks.

so i got -2 -111 for a unit and +6.5 for 5. cmon middle. :popcorn:
 
brewer said:
tejas gonna kill the trees. abrams gonna continue his tourney dominance.
Click to expand...

due I love tejas especially DJ Augustin love the kid best pg in the nation 2nd collison

but The Lopez twins especially Brook are on a mission the game vs Quette sold me and I never liked this fuckers. tough game for me 2 pick but Have to lean on The Tree's.
 
brewer, u catch JR tonight? he was in his finest form. hitting 30 footers in rhythm. 25 total in the 4th. fucking stud.
 
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