Monday Discussion

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Mon 5/12(little bigger bold for us old guys)


</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>G2 Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson
</TD><TD>-1.5 -106</TD><TD>-170</TD><TD>OVER 9 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:35 PM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>G2 Pittsburgh Pirates
J. VAN BENSCHOTEN
</TD><TD>+1.5 -104</TD><TD>+162</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
O. Perez
</TD><TD>+1.5 -148</TD><TD>+143</TD><TD>OVER 9 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>New York Mets
N. Figueroa
</TD><TD>-1.5 +138</TD><TD>-151</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
B. Badenhop
</TD><TD>+1.5 -135</TD><TD>+163</TD><TD>OVER 9 +103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang
</TD><TD>-1.5 +125</TD><TD>-171</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -113</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
R. Wolf
</TD><TD></TD><TD>+170</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
C ZAMBRANO
</TD><TD></TD><TD>-178</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
A. Wainwright
</TD><TD>-1.5 +141</TD><TD>-114</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -116</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
D. Bush
</TD><TD>+1.5 -151</TD><TD>+106</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +106</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Houston Astros
R. Oswalt
</TD><TD>-1.5 +122</TD><TD>-136</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:15 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
B. Zito
</TD><TD>+1.5 -132</TD><TD>+128</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -106</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
C. Buchholz
</TD><TD>-1.5 +126</TD><TD>-131</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
L. Hernandez
</TD><TD>+1.5 -136</TD><TD>+123</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -103</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>G2 Toronto Blue Jays
S. Marcum
</TD><TD>+1.5 -157</TD><TD>+146</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>G2 Cleveland Indians
C. Lee
</TD><TD>-1.5 +147</TD><TD>-154</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>New York Yankees
A PETTITTE
</TD><TD>-1.5 +139</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>OVER 9 -122</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
M. Garza
</TD><TD>+1.5 -149</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +112</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
E. Bedard
</TD><TD>+1.5 -229</TD><TD>-113</TD><TD>OVER 9 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
V. Padilla
</TD><TD>-1.5 +209</TD><TD>+105</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle
</TD><TD>+1.5 -209</TD><TD>-101</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>LAA Angels
N. Adenhart
</TD><TD>-1.5 +189</TD><TD>-107</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -125</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>G1 Atlanta Braves
J. Jurrjens
</TD><TD>-1.5 +111</TD><TD>-145</TD><TD>OVER 9 +106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>09:35 AM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>G1 Pittsburgh Pirates
Z. Duke
</TD><TD>+1.5 -121</TD><TD>+137</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -116</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Mon 5/12</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>G1 Toronto Blue Jays
A.J. Burnett
</TD><TD>+1.5 -172</TD><TD>+127</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>01:05 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>G1 Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona
</TD><TD>-1.5 +162</TD><TD>-135</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:cheers:
 
under 9 looks tasty in pittsburgh's first game....I think i may bet the board tommorow as i leave early tommorow mornin for vegas.
 
two of the most profitable pitchers so far this season are both pitching tomorrow:

padilla and livan.

am going to give both a serious look, and will almost definitely be playing livan and the twinks, as they look to continue their strong play at home, and also a road fade of bucholz who has been pretty horrible away from fenway. plus the twinks have been crushing rhp at home

in the tor/clev game2, how can i not take the under with marcum/cliff lee on the mound?? both have been lights out this year. and accardo's on the DL now so we dont have to worry about that deuchebag blowing up in the 7th/8th to screw us like he almost did in the halladay/CC game.

wainwright against bush?
most likely a play on the cards here as well
 
i am seeing jurrjens now at -150 .... twenty cents higher than what i locked him in at yesterday in this matchup.... i think i may have been priced out of this one.
 
frankiegotti said:
under 9 looks tasty in pittsburgh's first game....I think i may bet the board tommorow as i leave early tommorow mornin for vegas.
Click to expand...

LOVE under this one 1st 5...but whole game look good 2
Atlanta is solid as well
 
Damn, I lookin at the board and the one game i really like the most is SF ....the line on this is fackin weird to me...think i should pound SF RL...for safety
 
I am looking at one tonight-
Florida/Cincinnati Over 9(Even)
The Fish come to town riding a 7 game winning streak, with a whole lot of confidence averaging 7 runs a game over this stretch. HanRam among others have really been seeing the ball well and now they stroll into the Great American Smallpark. Harang has been pretty solid all year long but he is a flyball pitcher and I expect a few balls to be flying out of the yard tonight. I am sure the Reds realize they have yet to give Harang any run support when he has taken the mound this year, which is why he is 1-5 with a 3.09 era. Badenhop had a couple of bad outings early on but appears to have put together back to back quality starts. He is making only his 3rd road start and he was touched up for 6 runs in 5 innings @ Atlanta and 4 runs in 5 inn. @ Houston. He has yet to go longer than 6 innings in any of his 5 starts.
6 out of 7 games between these clubs last year went over
Cinci is only 5-9-2 to the over this year at home and I expect this number to start to adjust itself as the Reds appear to be over that slump and as the weather starts to heat up the balls start flying out of Great America.
The Reds realize how important this next stretch of games is to not lose touch in the Central and I expect them to play well at home for these next few.

I personally see a 7-4 type of ballgame here

OVER 9 (6 units)
 
vegaskyle said:
wainwright against bush?
most likely a play on the cards here as well

yup
Click to expand...

divisional rivalry ... road team favored ... no thanks ... I'll hold out hope that the home pup can bark ... bush is not stellar, but it is not bush vs stl, milwaukee has a team to help bush out
 
If Wainwright can keep the ball in the park, Cards should win. Brewers do most of their damage via the long ball.
 
Gonna take it easy on the research today . By the time the games started yesterday my brain was fried...really fried and I dont sleep very well most of the time (Redbearde I know can relate) so to say I was mentally exhausted wouldnt even do me justice . Plus with the whole ADD thing I have to try twice maybe three times as hard as the average person to focus , concentrate and read things . Along with writing my thoughts up it could take me 6-8 hours what it takes most of you 2 or 3 hours. Then I procrastinate alot as well. My saving grace is my memory and mind . I can just look at things and it triggers my memory so I dont have to do much backchecking and well as you can see by my writeups my mind doesnt every really "relax" . Great for some things and well not so great for others like sleep . There always something going on up there . It just gets real hard to think straight and I have had a real good run for the most part despite my sloppy decision making this past week( in my eyes my biggest achilles heel..sloppy weighting and ignoring what I deem as warning signs)... think from Sunday to Sunday was up about +42 units and I managed to give away or should I say piss away 15- 20units in Two days (Monday and Tuesday)last week just overbetting certain plays....ya know liking say an over and betting it 1st 5 inn , game over and say Runs , Hits , Errors and turning a 2 maybe 3 units loss into 5 or 6 units ....and I think I probably screwed up worse in the NBA with quarter bets despite having every side right for the entire week of playoff games so did that at least a good 5 times last week especially early on.....and then there was Thursday when I pissed away 19 units on 3 games ( despite going 11-1 on the rest card) which did include the famous Milw Brewer game I overthought but made enough using that logic this week anyway just took a hit on that particular game ...so I can pretty easily see I pissed away 60 units last week getting ahead myself and well that is not good and needs to be corrected... +15 units is nice but if I can see pissing away 50-60 units in that span thats a huge , huge issue...cause it means I had actually won somewhere near 75 units but to much rushing and not properly weigh plays made me work 3 x as hard as to profit .......

So sorry for the long speech just wanted to get that off my chest and give my fellow discussion buddies that my contributions will probably be limited unless I see some stuff later on worth really talking about ...like 5 or 6 Pm ...after I get some "other" things taken care of....

Weather here in NY is absolutely terrible. Alot of wind and rain all night , late night into this morning.....still raining fairly hard here.....dont expect baseball here....even heard mention of winds up to 50MPH...not really paying much attention to the weather today....

Since this stuff works in cycles , patterns , etc where the weather is nicer I would expect some RUNS scored today...we saw some big offensive outputs on Sat and then yesterday as well....so keep an eye out for that after a run drought most of last week...

We should start charting the Grand Salami and daily runs scored IMO as it will be beneficial...

Real quick...well not really...
Phoso- I know what you mean bro. I certainly take notice of that. What I would say just as caution and I know your doing well so not saying change anything sometimes what appears off really isnt it just appears that way due to our prejudice or bias towards teams and players. Doesnt really have anything to do with the SF game or line or even who to play in it just sometimes we have certain expectations for lines and well the books / oddsmakers are simply sticking to there guns so to speak inhow they value certain teams and we can often backcheck how they lined previous similiar situations to see if any adjustments up or down have been made. If they are not getting hurt lining a team a particular way they probably will take there time to adjust as I think there looking at the season more then just 1 series. So if we can attack something we see as "OFF" shortterm then we should without second thought because books arent concerned with having 1 or 2 games inarow present value for a particular team at least IMO.

With Houston it seems they didnt have a clue how to price the LAD series and once they started off to high on Friday with each game it showed how clearly overvalued LAD was at this moment. So after sweeping LAD I WOULD question why they did open this abit cheaper then I would expect but didnt really look at the whole picture just more at the recent series for each team. Hamels was about -170 vs Misch so suprised they didnt make this -140 on the open mostly because Zito was so undervalued @ Pitt and Dumtrait closing at -140 on that game....the flip though is they really undervalued the Giants the past 2 days so maybe thats why we see it open a bit shorter then we expected...SF is playing really well of late probably losing most of there past 8-10 games by 2 runs or less...

Anytime Houston faces a LHSP I approach it cautiously when you have Tejada , Berkman , Lee and Pence even Wigginton....it might smell shady but I think we do have two teams they are struggling to put accurate numbers on...just my opinion still play what you feel is correct...everytime Zito goes out there you know a huge emphasis is being placed on getting a WIN and getting the Mouse and pressure f his back. So thats clearly a plus and Oswalt has been inconsistent this year and doesnt seem to be the dominant SP of the past 7-8 seasons...BOL today and hope I didnt give you a headache.......

in Pitt wasnt sure they would play though Pitt is quite a distance from me . Clearly closer to the Central part of the country then the Coast...anyway..bad weather( here at least) ...early start , DH no less ...Monday day game ....one thing I would expect is very few fans which kinda made me thought this was a going through the motions game which if the SP were on could really breeze through the lineups...empty ballpark sort of saps the life out of the players IMO as there is no way to build emotion and factor in the lack of sun and its really easy to be lethargic w/o even knowing you are....GL if you went that way ...wise play I think....

VK- If you liked him yesterday I would be willing to pay the higher tax if you didnt think an extra day would hurt his stuff...I understand you have strict guidelines which is probably why you dont have the "sloppy" issue I have...though mine is more play weighting then deciding on plays...but I guess my point is when I make plays 80% of the time I am certain especially on a side what should happen...so if your certain you see value in ATL then whats the real difference bewteen -130 and -150? Besides 20 cents of risk that may never effect you...just my take on price sensitivity...

Wainright vs Bush is a tough one. I tip my cap to Wainright for his excellent job in Colorado as it was much better then I expected. He is just probably the best SP in the NL that no one knows about and I dont mean us bettors . Bush clearly is better at home and his 2 home starts have been okay but not up to his previous standards in MILW at Miller . He made a good start @ STL but Wainright has made 2 good ones vs Milw already.....

A few things outside of SP is the fact despite Wainright ' s good pitching both wins vs Milw were by 1 run . Despite Wainrights excellent pitching and STL winning 5 of his 7 starts , 3 things stand out he is getting almost no run support 5,5,5,4,4,3,1 (27 in 7 starts) which while a random thing seems to work in certain pattern season to season , the pen seems to pitch worse when he pitches blowing both of his last 2 starts in the 9th exhibited by his runs allowed 3,3,3,4,4,4,5 ( so 26 allowed in 7 games) , and really part of the last comment the pen has allowed 12 runs in his starts in 7 games for which they have only pitched 13 innings (thanks to xtras vs Cubs 11inn). So he allowed 14 runs and 13 earned in 52 innings while the pen in his starts has allowed 12 in 13 innings . The Cards pen situation only gets worse IMO with Izzy being demoted as closer because it puts medicore stuff guys in as closers and weaknes the other late inning guys...

Milw off a long losing streak is building momentum winning 2 of 3 and playing well suddenly. Being this is such a huge series both teams want this game badly STL to split the series and MILW to win the series..so no edge in that respect....

And with recent road favs it seems all the ones that got inexplicably cheaper playing "Hotter " teams then they were have LOST...SDP last Sunday vs Florida , LAA with Santana to TB yesterday , Philly to SFG yesterday are just some off the top of my head...

So the price drop seems to be a BIG red flag sign....Bush is capable especially at home of keeping his team in a game.



Inside Pitch


The Cardinals, struggling with runners in scoring position, can’t afford miscues elsewhere but they erred both on the bases and the field Sunday in losing for the fourth time in their last five games.

First baseman Albert Pujols was out three times on the bases, although one of those wasn’t a bad play; he drew a throw toward third as Adam Kennedy scored a run in the third on left fielder Chris Duncan's single. On another occasion, backup catcher Jason LaRue appeared to miss the hit-and-run sign as third baseman Troy Glaus was caught between first and second.

The defense gave up a run in the Milwaukee eighth when left fielder Chris Duncan was unable to catch up to shortstop J.J. Hardy blooper near the line and, when Duncan’s throw went to second, Hall dashed home to beat a throw to the plate from Kennedy, which was off target.

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Right-hander Adam Wainwright, the club’s ace, will pitch Monday’s finale of a four-game series as the Cardinals attempt to gain a split of the series and of the eight-game trip. They have lost just one series all season, when they dropped two out of three at home to San Francisco.

Brewers 5, Cardinals 3: The Cardinals had eight baserunners in the first four innings as former St. Louis RHP Jeff Suppan walked five hitters. But they got only one run, losing three runners on the bases, in that span. RHP Braden Looper suffered only his second loss in seven decisions, surrendering two solo homers to LF Ryan Braun




3B Troy Glaus singled in the fourth Sunday to stem a 1-for-28 slide

So in closing while I agree STL looks clealry like the right play steping back and looking at the whole situation makes me wonder .

1-Line drop
2- Cards ineffective pen made worse by Izzys struggle pitching worse in Wainright starts then most others
3-Cards winning 4 or 5 Wainright starts by 1 run despite his All Star pitching
4-Cards struggling somewhat offensively have now dropped 4 of 5 , facing a team who ended a long slide and has won 2 of 3 now ...9-9 cards road team vs 9-7 home Brewers team ...Ace vs 5th starter at Even money ? cards have lost just 1 series this year
5-Divisonal rivalry
6- Brewers reconfiguring pen to allow Torres and Shouse to get the most important outs is a PLUS IMO while Gagne has been largely hit or miss I think he can offer more then Izzy does at this point....
7-Bush when you look at his last 3 starts they arent that bad..
@ STL 6 inn 3 runs...remember despite Wainrights success he best effort is 3 runs in a game he started thanks to the pen.
vs Milw 6 inn 4 runs 8hits but the culprit was allowing 3 Hrs ...which all the runs sscord on..so did well in some pressure situations but ultimtaely the longball killed him in the 5th and 6th inning
@ Fla similiar deal 6 inn 5 h 6 runs...again 2 Hrs and 2 doubles account for all the runs...with 3 6inn runs again...

So Bush has been close to doing well but unraveled usually in his last inning or work. Cards this month offensively have struggled in situations with MOB leaving a ton of guys on base and that continued yesterday vs Suppan. There prodcution is

5,3,5,6,6,3,3,3,5,3...so a nice matchup for milw and Bush to face an offense who isnt scoring runs despite alot of MOB.....

Good Luck Cap but I didnt look at those games yesterday really but I prefer Bedard in Texas...Bucholz has had road issues I think we touched on that before 10-9 game @ DET...BOL today bro.......

GL Bjorks...didnt really look at that one

Frankie even though you probably wont see this I hope its a great trip...Enjoy and BOL....

Well 15 minutes turned into an hour again of typing...I had already circled the Brewer -Cards game so I just started typing from memory and lasted forever....just seems to east to take STL now at that price and Bush is really nearing a good start while the Cards line up seems to provide a good opportunity to do so...

Looking myself @ Boston 1st inning to score RUN a YES Prop since they rallied against Nathan late and have a very hittable pitcher in Livan Hernandez opposing them and of course if I a mistaken I stil have Minny hitting in the bottom 1st as well to try and cash that.....Props are guess work so I dont get to excited about them or heavily invested......

The one game I am interested in Cincy with Harang . Alot of good pitching vs other teams top guys and finally he gets a weak opposing SP. Badenhop has been serviceable and I bet him last few times successfully but Reds have huge advantage here IMO and Marlins stole one yesterday need to return that....8 starts for Aaron 3 runs or less in 7 with at least 6 innings usually 7 ...at home 8 runs in 28 innings and despite losing 2 of 3 @ Shea I though reds bats showed some life....and always nice to fade rookies on the road...

Otherwise not much else looking @ Carmona in Game 1 and then possibly Bedard later on....BOL....



















 
Nut: Good stuff. The price drop in Milwaukee is because they announced Pujols won't be playing. Perhaps no one player in baseball is worth more $$$ to the price than that guy. Hope that helps.

Also, Harang has gotten zero run support all season. With Florida playing better than anyone in baseball, I see ZERO value in trying to make the Reds win at 9-to-5 or worse tonight. Hard to make a winning team lose - just like it's hard to make a losing team win.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Nut: Good stuff. The price drop in Milwaukee is because they announced Pujols won't be playing. Perhaps no one player in baseball is worth more $$$ to the price than that guy. Hope that helps.

Also, Harang has gotten zero run support all season. With Florida playing better than anyone in baseball, I see ZERO value in trying to make the Reds win at 9-to-5 or worse tonight. Hard to make a winning team lose - just like it's hard to make a losing team win.
Click to expand...

Thanks CKR.

Certainly does help but I guess the question now becomes do you want to back a struggling offense without its best hitter? I wont play STL here just because I have been burned in similiar situations recently with road chalk and biting on the better SP , LAA yesterday is a good example but really not sure I want to hope MILW wins either...thank you and certainly makes the picture a bit clearer.....

So true , so true about winning and losing teams and picking the so called "DUE" Spots. Clearly as much as talent is on Cincy all we can say is they are a bad team . However thats all the so-called hot Florida Marlins have done is beat bad teams , with poor offenses and actually have had the edge most times in SP.

They took of 3 at home vs SD which based on the fact the Padres have struggled to score runs doesnt make it all that impressive. especially if we look atthe SD win % . Hendrickson v Germano and Maddux v Miller is the games they won and lost vs peavy who wasnt particulary sharp. So the worst hitting team vs LHP lost to the suprise LH of the NL with its 5th SP going who has now been removed from the rotation. The Sunday game again they stink vs LH and face a LHP but the real story was Maddux again struggling in search of #350. So decent win that day for FLA. To there credit they beat MILW rather soundly in each game but they had to face 3 MILW SP whose away numbers are historically bad in Suppan , Bush and Villanueva . Which is not overly impressive either. The best SP they faced was Suppan and he opposed there best SP in Olsen. Coupled with the fact MILW entered the series really struggling badly especially on offense. Bush as we know historically terrible on the road since coming to Milw and Villaneuva's track record is fairly poor on the road as well and getting worse this year. So not bd wins cause Badenhop and Hendrickson(couldnt complete 5 inn and left before Villanueva did) went but not great wins either sort of circumstance type wins...lesser of two evils type...then in Wash again they dont face much in the SP department. Granted Redding has been decent but he is okay.. , O'connor calle dup from AAA was terrible and Hill pitched real well but the pen blew it.

So I know I said I should respect Florida abit more but they cant seem to do any wrong no matter how good or bad they play. The one thing that stands out is the 1 legit SP they faced was Peavy and they lost. So nice run by Florida and I have to be careful about fading positive momentum . However I like that they pulled one out yesterday late which in most sports when streaks are at stake seems to be an indicator a streak is about to end . Sort of the last gasp , in sports its winning a game they had no business winning. Which tends to further elevate the perception surrounding them .

I think watching the Mets series the bats of Cincy are starting to wake up abit. COuld be stretch but they did beat Chi 2 of 3 when the SP matchups favored them and they did win the game @ Shea when the SP matchup favored them. So I guess that logic is something I paying attention to here. As I said with Cueto its tough to ask young SP especially guys with little experience past Double AA to win games on the road in the Majors and Badenhop suffers from minimal experience.

Harang has opposed Zambrano , @ STL Looper who is tough at Busch and STL was allowing onl 3 runs per game at that point , @ Sanchez in SFG tough young LHSP facing a team who has struggled vs LHP , Gallardo from Milwaukee , Dempster @ Chi but wind out and he allowed 2 big Hrs his worst start of the year , Villanueva @ Milw not top quality but his best starts come at home and they have been pretty good no matter the opposition , Eaton who I think was making his 2008 debut after warring with the Phills management and fron t office all ST ( nice spot to say Fuck you IMO), and Webb vs Zona . So he is 1-5 and 3-5 in his starts . The games he lost vs Webb and Zambrano @ home to Cy canditates which Badenhop clearly is not even close to. He lost away in a windy game @ Wrigley toughbeing he is a flyball pitcher , and then lost 2 games @ STL who doesnt allow much at home facing Looper who benefit more then anyone from pitching in the day @ Busch , and @ SFG facing one of the upcoming young LHSP in Sanchez. So while his run support does stink he has only had 1 positive situation and that was the wind game in Chi ecept it wasnt positive for his pitching. Otherwise the low run totals he received are simply about the opponents he was facing IMO. Which isnt the same really with Wainright but probably isnt far off either .

Harang has been tough to hit at home around 200 , last year in night games 200BAA and 11-2 while in 2006 11-6 with an ERA about 0.85 runs lower @ night and slightily better BAA. Now he gets 6 days rest another plus...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>4.07</TD><TD align=left>23</TD><TD align=left>23</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>154.2</TD><TD align=left>168</TD><TD align=left>72</TD><TD align=left>70</TD><TD align=left>22</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>34</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>145</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>.279</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>2.56</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>59.2</TD><TD align=left>50</TD><TD align=left>23</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>15</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>59</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3.78</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>159.1</TD><TD align=right>149</TD><TD align=right>68</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>146</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>.248</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3.99</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>65.1</TD><TD align=right>58</TD><TD align=right>31</TD><TD align=right>29</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>67</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

His lone start this year on 6 days I believe was his last start. Which outside of a 2 out blooper he was really never threatened. Not much past history bewteen he and Fla about 10-35 but a couple of Hrs..Gonzo only 1-12 , couple guys 2-3 Helms and Hermedia and 2-7 hanley and uggla...treanor 1-3 Hr though...w/o Jacobs 3 Hrs...

Badenhop while solid past 2 at home benefited IMO from facing teams Milw and LAD who have extreme gaps in performance when opposing LHSP and RHSP...the plus he is RH and there stats vs RHP are quite a drop from the LH for both teams...only 10 inn 15 h 10 runs 2bb 3ks in the 2 away starts for him and he wil face alot of LHB....and we saw what Cincy did on Sat vs someone even more talented then him in Pelfrey and learning on the ML level( although they did get just 2 runs but 8 hits in 6) .

Marlins 2-12 l14 on Monday and Reds 2-11 game #1 of series this year....and I know 8-2 vs RHP about 295 avg for Florida but quick glimpse at there opponents again leves me unimpressed ...
Redding , Bergmann , Oswalt , Backe , M.Morris , J.bennett , Gallardo , Villanueva , Redding and Hill..

They lost the games in bold . They beat Oswalt but I think its clear Oswalt is struggling this year and not himself especially early on in the season when this happened ..took the liner in SD then struggled badly @ CHI and vs FLorida . Before a mini turnaround of late.

Guys who can be quality like Hill 7 inn 2 run , Villanueva can be quality at hom e 6 inn 2 runs , Gallardo lost 3-0 but it happened in xtra innings and was 0-0 after 9 innings 7 inn 6 hits 0 runs , even Jeff Bennett was decent 6 inn 3 runs , Backe they lost 5-0 to ( 5 shaky shutout innings from him)...so really they beat up Oswalt badly , got to redding twice although somewhat deceptive as the last game they had a big 6th inning scoring 4runs( all day 5.1 inn 4 h 6runs 5 er) and the previous game vs him had like 7 unearned runs , and hit Bergmann (huge 5thinning 7 runs scoreless before) and Morris...

So while the value might not be in the price I think it lies in the situation. All those games I mentioned above FLA was basically catching 130 so the fav was -140 . At thimes in those they had Jacobs and or Willingham which I dont believe they will have today . So here I get a good pitching option and we see how they hit lesser quality options , we get the worst of Fla SP on the road as well , we get FLA missing a few bats they ity hasnt missed a beat lately offensively , and I get a Reds team who despite facing 2 LHP has done some good things in its past 4 games...

Are the Reds cheap if I have to pay 170 or 180(maybe lay -1.5) no but compared to the 140 price tags Fla saw in recent situations that really werent all that similiar I believe they are ....probably would see the value in this game up to about -220... what makes it great is that due to Florida streak the price for Harang sort of holds at 170 to 180 keeping it fair and probably undervalued IMO......

So thats why I like Cincy here...:shake:






 
Marlins 2-1 on Monday this year and 4-10 last 14 on Monday. No real opinion on the game. GL
 
tuck321 said:
Marlins 2-1 on Monday this year and 4-10 last 14 on Monday. No real opinion on the game. GL
Click to expand...

Thanks tuck...I mixed that up it should have read 2-10 L12 on mondays not 2-12 ....


<LI class=morehot>Marlins are 13-3 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=more>Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. <LI class=more>Marlins are 21-45 in their last 66 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=more>Marlins are 15-37 in their last 52 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 2-10 in their last 12 Monday games.
<LI class=morecool>Reds are 3-14 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morecool>Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League East. <LI class=morehot>Reds are 7-1 in Harangs last 8 starts vs. National League East. <LI class=morehot>Reds are 12-2 in Harangs last 14 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Reds are 11-3 in Harangs last 14 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Reds are 13-4 in Harangs last 17 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Reds are 19-7 in Harangs last 26 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Reds are 9-4 in Harangs last 13 starts as a home favorite. <LI class=more>Reds are 2-5 in Harangs last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. <LI class=more>Reds are 4-12 in Harangs last 16 Monday starts.
bunch of trends seem to both cancel eachother out with exception of Game 1 trends....:cheers:
 
Red Sox -1.5 RL
-No real angle here just playing a hunch . Livan threw 12 pithces last outing and while it hasnt effected him in the past facing Bostons lineup I think it will and Twins little thin in the pen right now. Plus the momentum angle from yesterdays late rally. No denying Livan ahs been real good and Twins won 9 of 10 at home,losing only to DiceK . So like the power vs finesse SP angle. Mannt also back in the lineup...

RedSox 1st inn score YES -125
-Momentum from yesterdays rally ...

Small plays on Jays , Jays 1st 5 and over 7.5 liked the plus money more then anything and Lee had some prior struggles vs Tor who hasnt hit a lick vs LHP all year or this series..I cant see how this matchup i sworth more then 1st game.....

Reds ML -170 coupla units and -1.5 +125 , and 1st 5 over 4.5
-see above

Yanks -110 {1.5 units) and 1st 5 over 5
-Yanks above 300 L10 vs RHP while TB near 200 vs LHP. Pettitte got on track last start while TB hasnt fared well against him in the past..DrAys are HOT but I like the matchups formy Yanks


:cheers:GL all
 
should have played Wash here with Odalis Perez after yesterdays big play on them..took Cavs and mariners..screwed around with Milw +1.5RL
 
The Nats bench is hilarious with there lets go chants seemed like it distracted kearns
 
"I think watching the Mets series the bats of Cincy are starting to wake up abit. COuld be stretch but they did beat Chi 2 of 3 when the SP matchups favored them and they did win the game @ Shea when the SP matchup favored them. So I guess that logic is something I paying attention to here. As I said with Cueto its tough to ask young SP especially guys with little experience past Double AA to win games on the road in the Majors and Badenhop suffers from minimal experience."

Excellent writeups today and I just watched Phillips hammer one into the upper deck. I hit the hova and the Reds have doubled up the Fish so lets finish em off.:shake:
 
Thanks guys. Sorry I forgot to say I had basketball at 8 so dont think I was ignoring you. Just walked in...

Little painful to see the 8-7 final in Cincy as I dont maximize there..mostly because they were up 8-4 with 6 outs to go but Fla is retarded catching +1.5 and I know that...11-6 away but 14-3 catching +1.5...at least I got the 1st half over.....

Good call Kmac...wish I had the game over its kinda insane I said in my first post of the afternoon there will be runs where the weather is nice and well just about game looks like an over and I really didnt play many...last minute I added the Sea-texas over when I saw 8.5 but thats it with the 2 1st 5 overs I played @ NY and @ CIncy...reallypissed about Washington...that was layup...I knew after yesterday that Wash would bounce back and Fla lose today....that was a juicy dog......

Not sure I can explain why but playing LAA just like playing ON teams after bad road trips......Adenhart gets an extra days rest and I think that will help straighten him out after the blockheads in LAA called this kid up on 2 dyas rest and 8 innings of work....not to many LHB in Chi so I think a good matchup from that perspective as well as the pen blew LAAs game yesterday....Buerhle is struggling of late and led Chi to just 2 wins this year and his past 2 seasons vs LAA have not been good. Dont want to say that LAA can hit LH with there injuries with Hunter and Vlad in the middle you dont mind so much...so playing LAA in my version of a ML bounce back spot....

Not sure about SF yet.....:cheers:
 
Also trust me on this as I donthave the timeto cut and past Buerhle gets hit much harder on normal rest (5days) which he is pitching on today. he last outing and the obe vs TB are on normal rest and take out his 1st start and the rest of his starts think 4 he is ERA is below 2.00...
 
He has lost 4-3 and won 4-3 the past 2 years so that makes me think under abit...he lost 2 of 3 at home vs them winning 9-7 late last year
 
Not sure if you saw how you lost the Reds -1.5 bet but needless to say it was absolutely brutal. Routine flyball to right with the bases loaded and two outs, Griffey takes his off of it and it pops out of his glove 2 runs score......tough one there.
 
Kmacc said:
Not sure if you saw how you lost the Reds -1.5 bet but needless to say it was absolutely brutal. Routine flyball to right with the bases loaded and two outs, Griffey takes his off of it and it pops out of his glove 2 runs score......tough one there.
Click to expand...

Shit happens what can you do...I knew it was risky ...I try not to get to wrapped up in looking at the last play...yes I am pissed but I also came back from down 3-0 to go up 8-4....I certainly wish I would have won it but I guess I knew getting 125 or 130 here was a bit to good to be true...Thanks though I appreciate the heads up...those type things always seem tohappen when they do matter rarely when they dont...

Lets see If I catch a break late fucked around with a bunch of small shit...:shake:
 
Well Cavs won and sort of pissed i didnt add to them at halftime it was just when I was walking in and well I had like the Under so added that....think I am +6 units maybe slightily better for the day ...have 3 pending SEA -130 {1.5u} , LAA -120 {1.5u} and SFG +130 {1u} and +1.5 -130 {.50U}...just hoping to get 2 of 3...but Seattle is making that tough allowing 4runs in the b7th hard to see them winning...

so wish me Luck ...would be nice to start +8 or so units on small day for me...:cheers:lets go WEST COAST!:shake:

Going to start reviewing the games today since I missed just about everything
 
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