Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jun 5 Mon 2023

04:05 PM
915Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L-1½
+100		-152O 8½
-120
916Boston Red SoxB. Bello -R+7 Markets+1½
-120		+140U 8½
+100
06:40 PM
907Detroit TigersJ. Wentz -L+1½
+100		+208O 8½
-102
908Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R+7 Markets-1½
-120		-230U 8½
-118
06:40 PM
909Kansas City RoyalsC. Hernandez -R+1½
-140		+147O 8½
+104
910Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+7 Markets-1½
+120		-159U 8½
-124
07:05 PM
911Oakland AthleticsJ. Sears -L+1½
-127		+159O 8½
-118
912Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Oviedo -R+7 Markets-1½
+107		-173U 8½
-102
07:07 PM
905Houston AstrosB. Bielak -R+1½
-182		+104O 10
-110
906Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R+7 Markets-1½
+162		-114U 10
-110
07:10 PM
901Milwaukee BrewersJ. Teheran -R+1½
-175		+112O 9½
-106
902Cincinnati RedsA. Abbott -L+7 Markets-1½
+155		-122U 9½
-114
08:05 PM
913St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R+1½
-160		+121O 9½
-118
914Texas RangersM. Perez -L+7 Markets-1½
+140		-131U 9½
-102
09:10 PM
903Chicago CubsK. Hendricks -R+1½
-135		+153O 8½
-121
904San Diego PadresB. Snell -L+7 Markets-1½
+115		-166U 8½
+101
 
Last edited:
they don’t have hardly any pitcher props up but there were few team totals I had to grab!

Hou Ff tt ov 2.5 ev

Have they watched manoah pitch? I really don’t see a world where Stros don’t touch him up! Even money for them to get 3 off him, I’ll take it.

Rangers tt ov 4.5 -130

We could go 1st 5 ov 2.5 here cause they prob will get 3+ off waino, hell they could easily get all 5 off him but why leave out cards pen or the off chance waino is solid 1-2x thru order and he gets blown up im 6th even tho I don’t really expect he makes it that far! Rangers just got done mashing seattle very good pitching staff, I Have little doubt they will easily score 5+ here! Can’t believe they made this 4.5!!
 
Not sure if there be any pitcher props today, just 1st glance I don’t see anything very appealing, unless we wanted to play some unders! I have no clue how they lined waino at 17.5 outs?!?!?! He hasn’t went 6 innings in any start this year and not against a red hot rangers lineup they think he going 6? I dunno if this a huge tell or just a really stupid number? I really don’t like playing pitcher prop unders but waino is so tempting at this pive!!
 
2daBank said:
they don’t have hardly any pitcher props up but there were few team totals I had to grab!

Hou Ff tt ov 2.5 ev

Have they watched manoah pitch? I really don’t see a world where Stros don’t touch him up! Even money for them to get 3 off him, I’ll take it.

Rangers tt ov 4.5 -130

We could go 1st 5 ov 2.5 here cause they prob will get 3+ off waino, hell they could easily get all 5 off him but why leave out cards pen or the off chance waino is solid 1-2x thru order and he gets blown up im 6th even tho I don’t really expect he makes it that far! Rangers just got done mashing seattle very good pitching staff, I Have little doubt they will easily score 5+ here! Can’t believe they made this 4.5!!
Click to expand...
First things that stuck out to me were Astros tt and Cards/Rangers overs to me before I even read this lol, guess I think the Cards will do their fair share of scoring as well against Perez but maybe safer to just go Rangers tt...usually not a fan of the home team to do it with 3 less outs possibly but it should be warranted even with only a couple innings of the pen.
 
Jordan Hicks pitched the last two days - including 20 pitches yesterday -- but maybe it's actually a good thing that he (probably) won't pitch today because he seems to have figured things out
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I esentially wrote about this in my article but Phillies and Padres look way overpriced to me
Click to expand...

I don’t disagree but think you quite a bit higher on wentz than I am. That rangers start was like one of 3 ok starts he has had all year far as game score, and it was hardly amazing. Far as your point about Phillies 1st game Back from road trip I always been hesitant to play those so I’m with ya there but it is a really small sample and a few of those bad games were coming home from out west which I think more likely to be a struggle than this much shorter trip to atl, ny, Washington. They actually hit a lot better in Washington than I expected. Not sure Nola has any business laying this any more than Philly does but I’d think he should be able to handle tigers lineup for 5 innings (unless he has totally lost it!).

I agree they overpriced I just don’t really wanna bet tigers who have plenty of their own offensive issues. I actually think Nola is far more likely to be good than I do wentz. No chance In hell I’m laying freaking -230 tho!

Pads, philly, cards, Mets, all seem to be perpetually overpriced this year so prob nothing wrong w fading any of them.
 
KJ said:
First things that stuck out to me were Astros tt and Cards/Rangers overs to me before I even read this lol, guess I think the Cards will do their fair share of scoring as well against Perez but maybe safer to just go Rangers tt...usually not a fan of the home team to do it with 3 less outs possibly but it should be warranted even with only a couple innings of the pen.
Click to expand...

I debated Ff instead of game but cards pen been so crappy I figured might as well take the 6-7-8th. Honestly I think they will score at least 4 off waino. Cards should hit perez, he throws a lot of cutters and sinkers, doesn’t throw a slider or curve. I just have for more confidence waino will get hit and don’t really trust cards but I’d def lean over the game total.
 
I’m totally baffled they hung 17.5 outs for waino, it actually scares me a bit because I don’t understand it at all. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t completed 6 in any start all year but he gonna do it vs a red hot rangers team? I guess my only real concern other than them hanging this out total thst has no merit is rangers been smashing velo all weekend and waino has none of that! But again as I say bout waino every start maybe that fools then 1x around but once they get a look at what he throwing they should have him figured out.
 
2daBank said:
I’m totally baffled they hung 17.5 outs for waino, it actually scares me a bit because I don’t understand it at all. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t completed 6 in any start all year but he gonna do it vs a red hot rangers team? I guess my only real concern other than them hanging this out total thst has no merit is rangers been smashing velo all weekend and waino has none of that! But again as I say bout waino every start maybe that fools then 1x around but once they get a look at what he throwing they should have him figured out.
Click to expand...
Could be that they see what Cavs sees, if Hicks isn't available it's possible they ask Wainright to go a full six unless he's absolutely getting shelled early
 
2daBank said:
I’m totally baffled they hung 17.5 outs for waino, it actually scares me a bit because I don’t understand it at all. I’m pretty sure he hasn’t completed 6 in any start all year but he gonna do it vs a red hot rangers team? I guess my only real concern other than them hanging this out total thst has no merit is rangers been smashing velo all weekend and waino has none of that! But again as I say bout waino every start maybe that fools then 1x around but once they get a look at what he throwing they should have him figured out.
Click to expand...
1685976581127.png
hard not to take it - Bello under 16.5 at even $ caught my eye as well rays hit him pretty well
 
bostonshamrock said:
View attachment 74117
hard not to take it - Bello under 16.5 at even $ caught my eye as well rays hit him pretty well
Click to expand...

I’m in car so can’t really make out the chart but I’ll check it out when I get home. Bello has not been good historically during the day either, I was leaning to rays Ff-.5 cause Mcclanshan has pretty much dominated them, basically same principle tho, I think it be tough for Bello to go past 5 but I’ll prob wait till I see lineups, think I saw a reslky strong womg blowing in so that could help both pitchers, although Bello problem is usually control and getting pitch count run up. When I get home I’ll try and look closer but think I pretty much agree w you even if rays do sit guys today.
 
Are there gonna be shadows at Fenway? This kinda a odd start time, usually when they play in day it like 12 o’clock, no clue with a 4 local time start?
 
bostonshamrock said:
View attachment 74117
hard not to take it - Bello under 16.5 at even $ caught my eye as well rays hit him pretty well
Click to expand...

And waino has faced quite a few lineups weaker than this ranger squad who super hot right now, we talking kc, det, Cincy, those are far from world beaters and he failed to go 6 innings against any of them. The kinda odd thing his best outing was prob against lad but he still allowed 5 hits and walked 3 over 5.2 innings, only 2 earned runs but 5 total.
 
Rays lineup looks good!

Red Sox have 7 lefties in lineup vs McClanahan! Interesting strategy, I have to look at McClanahan splits, I can’t imagine many teams have tried this, I know he has no problem with right handed hitters.
 
McClanahan actually has crappy k-bb ratio vs left handed hitters this season, he has only faced 43 at bats from guys hitting from left side with just 9k’s and 5 walks! Compared to the right side where he striking out well over 30% of batters he sees! Very interesting strategy Boston going with today. Makes me hesitant to play anything related to mcClanahan today, there a very good possibility facing so many lefties he will be his usual dominate self, I mean he has only had 40ish chances all year so obviously he most likely facing majority of teams best lefty hitters and not much else having faced 240ish batters from right side! This really interesting to me but not sure it makes for any good plays involving him since there no real good data points im aware of!
 
2daBank said:
Rays lineup looks good!

Red Sox have 7 lefties in lineup vs McClanahan! Interesting strategy, I have to look at McClanahan splits, I can’t imagine many teams have tried this, I know he has no problem with right handed hitters.
Click to expand...
1685983338461.png
where are you seeing diff lineup?
 
bostonshamrock said:
View attachment 74118
where are you seeing diff lineup?
Click to expand...

I see this on score app:

Verdego
Devers
Turner
Yoshida
Duran
Kiki
Casas
Mcquire
Valdez

It would be smart to sit refsnyder, McClanahan has pretty much dominated him.

Well this sucks, I dunno which lineup to believe? I was bout to give Cora huge props for tryikg this lefty loaded lineup since the righties have had no success vs McClanahan! Shit
 
Im so confused now, my score app can be weird with things at times but I don’t recall them having lineup wrong unless there a late scratch. Hmmm
 
2daBank said:
I see this on score app:

Verdego
Devers
Turner
Yoshida
Duran
Kiki
Casas
Mcquire
Valdez

It would be smart to sit refsnyder, McClanahan has pretty much dominated him.

Well this sucks, I dunno which lineup to believe? I was bout to give Cora huge props for tryikg this lefty loaded lineup since the righties have had no success vs McClanahan! Shit
Click to expand...

MLB Lineups and Daily Fantasy Salaries | Swish Analytics

MLB 2020 Schedule, Betting Lines, Predictions, Analysis, Wagering Projections, Scores, Fantasy, Player Stats, Box Scores, Projections
swishanalytics.com swishanalytics.com

MLB Daily Starting Lineups

The most up-to-date MLB daily player starting lineups, gathered hours before game time.
www.baseballpress.com www.baseballpress.com

i use these -

liking o 5.5 k's for mcclanahan now
 
bostonshamrock said:

MLB Lineups and Daily Fantasy Salaries | Swish Analytics

MLB 2020 Schedule, Betting Lines, Predictions, Analysis, Wagering Projections, Scores, Fantasy, Player Stats, Box Scores, Projections
swishanalytics.com swishanalytics.com

MLB Daily Starting Lineups

The most up-to-date MLB daily player starting lineups, gathered hours before game time.
www.baseballpress.com www.baseballpress.com

i use these -

liking o 5.5 k's for mcclanahan now
Click to expand...

Dang it down to 5.5? That leads me to believe the lefty loaded lineup might be the correct one? If it the lineup you posted that accurate I def like over 5.5 k’s, I see a lot more k’s in your posted lineup compared to mine, and as I said above McClanahan k:bb ratio vs lefties is bad and only 9 total k’s in the 40ish at bats he has faced them, however if we talking Refsnyder, Reyes, wong, arroyo I def see more k’s!
 
This so frustrating, this seems like a impossible thing to mess up! Manager turns in lineup card and that it!! How can we have varying lineups?!?!! Lol
 
bostonshamrock said:

MLB Lineups and Daily Fantasy Salaries | Swish Analytics

MLB 2020 Schedule, Betting Lines, Predictions, Analysis, Wagering Projections, Scores, Fantasy, Player Stats, Box Scores, Projections
swishanalytics.com swishanalytics.com

MLB Daily Starting Lineups

The most up-to-date MLB daily player starting lineups, gathered hours before game time.
www.baseballpress.com www.baseballpress.com

i use these -

liking o 5.5 k's for mcclanahan now
Click to expand...

Mlb.com shows the one you posting. Just when I was bout to give Cora huge props for trying something different. Wish I knew where this score app pulled this lineup out their ass from? Man I wasted a bunch of time looking at McClamhan vs lefties! Lol
 
Far as Bello goes I still agree but I wouldn’t put a ton into his previous numbers vs rays, he faced them b2b in his 1st 2 starts last year. I think he has vastly improved since then, I still agree asking him to get 17 outs is quite a bit. One thing that hasn’t changed he still been much worse in day starts this season, he has only managed 12.1 innings in 3 day starts!
 
Super curious how much over 15.5 they will put Hendricks out total? I understand why it not out yet, it a tough cap! Lol
 
I never play under props so todays is a whole new world but shit, I feel like I cap pitchers well enough I should be able to play unders when they justified! I dunno if I’ll ever play under k prop cause hell, nobody even cares if they strike out anymore! Any pitcher on any given outing can fan a bunch of ppl!! Out props tho I think there def room to play some unders when I think they priced too high! I don’t play earned run props cause normally I think the 1st 5 team total makes more sense.
 
Man they didn’t fuck around with Andrew Abbott k total at all, there been multiple 1st time starters I’ve snagged and cashed over 4.5 their 1st start and he a great candidate vs the brewers who swing and miss a bunch vs lhp in particular! These pricks posted a 5.5 tho, it probably the right number cause I woulda slammed 4.5, I just don’t know if I want to play him needing 6 to cash in his 1st ever start? The likelihood he goes longer than 5 innings can’t be great but if his k numbers are close to what he has posted In double and triple a this year he might not need to go past 5 to hit this number. Gut says to just pass on 5.5 but it really tempting considering the competition, he also had a huge spike in home runs when he moved to triple a, in that sense milw not a great matchup for him as they have plenty of power when they actually make contact!
 
The only reason I’m not just totally moving on a keep looking cause Abbott k numbers been off the chain in minors. Can’t even play reds Ff cause they have them as favs! Teheran pitching way over his head thus far, is today the day he gets got?
 
@bostonshamrock my stupid ass score app changed lineup now, thanks for posting that or I woulda been going about this game all wrong! The funny thing is I woulda been super impressed had Cora tried the lineup they had posted, I’d be real curious to see McClanahan vs all those lefties! Lol. As is I expect him to dominate all those rh’s at bottom the lineup and resnyder at the top!
 
So rays are sitting one the Lowe’s today and starting a few guys I don’t really know but they are pretty heavy lefty, Bello does not share the kinda reverse splits, lefties have a ops above .900 and he only has a 15:7 k:bb this year, the ops for lefties want that high last year but he finished with a 19:12 k:bb in around 100 AB’s.
 
Rays also sitting Arozarena but I’m ok them getting a extra lefty in the lineup, probably more likely to force more pitches, draw more walks from Bello
 
2daBank said:
they don’t have hardly any pitcher props up but there were few team totals I had to grab!

Hou Ff tt ov 2.5 ev

Have they watched manoah pitch? I really don’t see a world where Stros don’t touch him up! Even money for them to get 3 off him, I’ll take it.

Rangers tt ov 4.5 -130

We could go 1st 5 ov 2.5 here cause they prob will get 3+ off waino, hell they could easily get all 5 off him but why leave out cards pen or the off chance waino is solid 1-2x thru order and he gets blown up im 6th even tho I don’t really expect he makes it that far! Rangers just got done mashing seattle very good pitching staff, I Have little doubt they will easily score 5+ here! Can’t believe they made this 4.5!!
Click to expand...
Rangers tt now at 5.5 +110.
 
SIGO said:
Rangers tt now at 5.5 +110.
Click to expand...

That makes way more sense to me. I think it you havnt played it yet I would probably look At Ff ov 2.5 or 7 innings over 3.5. Not that I don’t think they score 6 I just think those options have more value since there a good cHance they don’t even hit in 9th!
 
Pitcher props so far:

McClanahan ov 5.5 k’s -145

Here the new part, 1st under out totals I’ve ever played so we see how it goes!

Bello un 16.5 outs
Wainwright un 17.5 outs
 
I really want to play jp Sears ov 16.5 outs but I can’t stand looking at the rando times a’s jackass manager has pulled him for seemingly no good reason I can see where his pitch count was very low!!! I think he can easily go 6 innings vs pirates, only needs 5.2 to cash but I don’t like being the victim of some random whim by im sure a awful manager cause I know oakland not spending any money on those!!
 
I used McClanahan k’s/waino Under outs for the 50% boost today, I’ve hit 3 of those in a row so not sure if that good or bad for today? Lol
 
2daBank said:
Pitcher props so far:

McClanahan ov 5.5 k’s -145

Here the new part, 1st under out totals I’ve ever played so we see how it goes!

Bello un 16.5 outs
Wainwright un 17.5 outs
Click to expand...

Added jp Sears ov 16.5 outs. Just have to hold our breaths on this fucking manager, I really don’t see any reason he won’t be thru 5 innings with a reasonably low pitch count. Pirates not exactly ripping the cover off the ball even tho they did victimize cards crappy pen, for the most part cards average starters did just fine vs pirates. Montgomery went 5.2 which was the only lhp we started and he was only at 75 pitches when he was pulled.
 
2daBank said:
Added jp Sears ov 16.5 outs. Just have to hold our breaths on this fucking manager, I really don’t see any reason he won’t be thru 5 innings with a reasonably low pitch count. Pirates not exactly ripping the cover off the ball even tho they did victimize cards crappy pen, for the most part cards average starters did just fine vs pirates. Montgomery went 5.2 which was the only lhp we started and he was only at 75 pitches when he was pulled.
Click to expand...
Don't have time but have you even looked to see if other starters are getting yanked early for the A's or is it just this guy?
 
KJ said:
Don't have time but have you even looked to see if other starters are getting yanked early for the A's or is it just this guy?
Click to expand...

Didn’t look but I will. Didn’t even think bout doing that, lol. I know they usually let the kid Medina go 5 or past despite always giving up bunch of runs.
 
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2daBank said:
Didn’t look but I will. Didn’t even think bout doing that, lol. I know they usually let the kid Medina go 5 or past despite always giving up bunch of runs.
Click to expand...
Just thinking that since they obviously know they suck and the pending move, wonder if they just want to get a bunch of guys innings and play to hopefully win the game as opposed to just doing what normal teams would do
 
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