Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 25 Mon 2022

06:40 PM
951Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L+1½
-190		+110O 9½
+110
952Cincinnati RedsN. Lodolo -L-1½
+165		-120U 9½
-130
07:05 PM
953Atlanta BravesM. Fried -L-1½
+105		-161O 8
-115
954Philadelphia PhilliesR. Suarez -L+1½
-125		+148U 8
-105
07:05 PM
963Tampa Bay RaysC. Kluber -R-1½
+115		-126O 9
-120
964Baltimore OriolesA. Voth -R+1½
-135		+116U 9
+100
07:10 PM
965Cleveland GuardiansZ. Plesac -R+1½
-190		-104O 9½
-105
966Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R-1½
+165		-106U 9½
-115
07:10 PM
973San Diego PadresS. Manaea -L-1½
+110		-151O 8½
+105
974Detroit TigersD. Hutchison -R+1½
-130		+139U 8½
-125
08:05 PM
955Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R+123
956Chicago CubsA. Sampson -R-133
08:10 PM
957Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+1½
-130		+170O 8½
-115
958Milwaukee BrewersA. Ashby -L-1½
+110		-185U 8½
-105
08:10 PM
967Los Angeles AngelsN. Syndergaard -R+1½
-220		-105O 8½
-110
968Kansas City RoyalsZ. Greinke -R-1½
+190		-105U 8½
-110
09:40 PM
959San Francisco GiantsJ. Junis -R-1½
+130		-125O 9
-110
960Arizona DiamondbacksT. Gilbert -L+1½
-150		+115U 9
-110
09:40 PM
969Houston AstrosJ. Odorizzi -R-1½
-130		-205O 8
-110
970Oakland AthleticsA. Oller -R+1½
+110		+188U 8
-110
10:10 PM
971Texas RangersG. Otto -R+1½
-155		+126O 8½
+100
972Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R-1½
+135		-136U 8½
-120
 
Not much of a appealing card. I’d like to get a discount on Josiah gray k’s. If we can get a 4.5 def be a play. Have to dig in deeper if it 5.5.

Otto best start this month since coming off IL was 6 innings 3 earned vs seattle last time out, seeing them again I lean to seattle Ff tt over. Think they right the ship after getting put in their place by Stros. I’m not a huge Flexen fan but he faced texas on 3 days rest last start, expect he be better here. Maybe just a play on seattle to win the game at reasonable price with starting pitching and pen edge.

Not sure where they will set Greene k prop vs fish, 5.5 I think has to be a play.

Ranger Suarez a constant pain in my ass, he should get plenty of k’s if he doesn’t get blown up, have to look closer there but assume we get a 4.5 k number which def doable. Phillies have came out the break looking like they still on vacation getting swept by scrubbies! maybe the extra rest be good for fried who hasn’t looked as sharp his last few times out. Could be a atl rl play.

I dunno who pitching for O’s? They made Kluber work last time out. Pretty short line but balty offense for my money better than rays right now, just have to see who pitching for O’s.

Manaea shouldn’t have much trouble w tigers lineup but I dunno if there a play there?

Kinda feels like a bounce back spot for Pivetta but since tribe don’t strike out a lot not sure what I’d do with him? I could see Red Sox getting to plesac. Ev money would be Sox or nothing for me.

Brubaker as dog or his k’s vs scrubbies def where I lean.

Pretty big number for milw when rox hit lefties way better than they do. Also they usually come with fairly low Freeland k number, they hang a 3.5 id play that. Def lean rox Ff w the generous plus.

Snakes offense been ok since coming back, have to look at Junis in zona since I think that can be a tough park for pitchers, if he has had struggles there I could see another snakes Ff tt.

Cam oak continue making oderizzi look good seeing him for 3rd straight? No way would I lay it, dunno who pitching for A’s but I’d think this a let down spot for Astros after flexing on yanks and seattle!! Not sure I’m willing to play A’s but worth a thought with a avg pitcher laying -200!!!

Dunno how many plays I come up with out of that but those the off top my head 1st thoughts!!
 
2daBank said:
Not much of a appealing card. I’d like to get a discount on Josiah gray k’s. If we can get a 4.5 def be a play. Have to dig in deeper if it 5.5.

Otto best start this month since coming off IL was 6 innings 3 earned vs seattle last time out, seeing them again I lean to seattle Ff tt over. Think they right the ship after getting put in their place by Stros. I’m not a huge Flexen fan but he faced texas on 3 days rest last start, expect he be better here. Maybe just a play on seattle to win the game at reasonable price with starting pitching and pen edge.

Not sure where they will set Greene k prop vs fish, 5.5 I think has to be a play.

Ranger Suarez a constant pain in my ass, he should get plenty of k’s if he doesn’t get blown up, have to look closer there but assume we get a 4.5 k number which def doable. Phillies have came out the break looking like they still on vacation getting swept by scrubbies! maybe the extra rest be good for fried who hasn’t looked as sharp his last few times out. Could be a atl rl play.

I dunno who pitching for O’s? They made Kluber work last time out. Pretty short line but balty offense for my money better than rays right now, just have to see who pitching for O’s.

Manaea shouldn’t have much trouble w tigers lineup but I dunno if there a play there?

Kinda feels like a bounce back spot for Pivetta but since tribe don’t strike out a lot not sure what I’d do with him? I could see Red Sox getting to plesac. Ev money would be Sox or nothing for me.

Brubaker as dog or his k’s vs scrubbies def where I lean.

Pretty big number for milw when rox hit lefties way better than they do. Also they usually come with fairly low Freeland k number, they hang a 3.5 id play that. Def lean rox Ff w the generous plus.

Snakes offense been ok since coming back, have to look at Junis in zona since I think that can be a tough park for pitchers, if he has had struggles there I could see another snakes Ff tt.

Cam oak continue making oderizzi look good seeing him for 3rd straight? No way would I lay it, dunno who pitching for A’s but I’d think this a let down spot for Astros after flexing on yanks and seattle!! Not sure I’m willing to play A’s but worth a thought with a avg pitcher laying -200!!!

Dunno how many plays I come up with out of that but those the off top my head 1st thoughts!!
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Wow. Guess @VirginiaCavs did already have it up. I like Lodolo and Voth ML at first glance - which seems to line up with you. Definitely lean Brubaker too, but know we are both always high on him.
 
Ryno14 said:
Wow. Guess @VirginiaCavs did already have it up. I like Lodolo and Voth ML at first glance - which seems to line up with you. Definitely lean Brubaker too, but know we are both always high on him.
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He knows to have it up early when I’m on my game or he be getting a text from me! Lol.

I can’t believe cubs laying -140s? I have to look at their pitcher and prob a good chance I play Brubaker k prop opposed to backing pirates depending where number is.,, I have this new thing where I’m crashing kinda hard real early for me since they told me I can lay on my back again, so don’t see any the prop numbers but then I wake up by around this time and am wide awake now Gonna see what all they have up now and start digging into everything so I can bet 1st thing. I’m done sitting around and losing good numbers! Lol
 
Ryno14 said:
Wow. Guess @VirginiaCavs did already have it up. I like Lodolo and Voth ML at first glance - which seems to line up with you. Definitely lean Brubaker too, but know we are both always high on him.
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I had seen Greene for reds so Lodolo changes things but he obviously has swing and miss stuff from left side which you know I love vs fish!!
 
They still don’t have many the guys k props up I’m interested in but that good for real, can’t get beat to the numbers then!! Voth 3.5 worth looking at. They came higher on Freeland than I was hoping for but plus money on the 4.5, could get bet down to 3.5 still.
 
Freaking Lodolo opened 6.5, be patient, I think he will get bet down to 5.5, he don’t have the name or track record for ppl to be jumping on him at 6.5. Alresdy went from even money to +125, I’d guess by some point today we can get him 5.5 at reasonable juice.
 
Of course these pole smokers came out w Brubaker k prop soon as I got back home! Lmao. This sucks cause I know his over 5.5 k’s is gonna get bet up but still waiting on Lodolo number to drop. Much rather play him ov 5.5 at -150ish than ov 6.5 +125 where it sits now!! On other hand would love to get Brubaker ov 5.5 at ev money where it sits now, that gonna be -140 or more if we wait! I swear I need to move to another state, every fucking state around missouri has now legalized sports gambling but not these morons!!!
 
No surprise we have same problem with legal recreational weed also! Everyone around us we can walk in and buy. In missouri gotta go to dr and get a sham prescription. Fuckinh missouri full of way far right crack pots with their bs moral agenda! It does make for hilarious commercials where these piece of shit’s running for congress list all these things that they should be embarrassed about yet bragging as it a badge of honor!! Lol
 
orioles pitcher only goes a few innings looks like a bullpen game last time these starters met o's won 2-1

I watched the O's Rays series last week those 2 teams look very close, 2/3 were 1 score games - I see those teams like pirates, marlins matchup. If you bet the dog on the run line and moneyline auto bet at least feels like that comes out on top more often then not.
 
So Rogers out total is 15.5 but he has only went 5.1 innings in 4 of his 18 starts!! That kinda interesting isn’t it? I know he facing the reds but their offense isn’t worse than many the teams he failed to go past 5 innings and their park a bandbox!! Things that make ya go hmmmm? Lol
 
EL CAPO said:
orioles pitcher only goes a few innings looks like a bullpen game last time these starters met o's won 2-1

I watched the O's Rays series last week those 2 teams look very close, 2/3 were 1 score games - I see those teams like pirates, marlins matchup. If you bet the dog on the run line and moneyline auto bet at least feels like that comes out on top more often then not.
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I agree they pretty close, rays have the pitching edge but balty has the tougher lineup imo. Tough to make a line w Voth, he has only started 5 games but looks to me like he trending up far as innings goes, he went 2.2 his 1st start, then 3 innings each his next 2, then he managed 4.1 vs texas, last time he made it 5 innings vs laa. Seems to me he starting to get stretched so think a case can be made we could safely expect him to go at least 4 and maybe even pitch past 5!! His last time out was relief against these same Rays and he pitched a clean 2.2 allowing just 1 hit and 1 walk, against think lineup I think he can go 5 here. His 1st start was actually against these same rays where he went 2,2 again clean. I think he has enough a 3 pitch mix. I feel confident giving him a 4 inning 4k line with minimal damage, O’s pen has been a big part their resurgence imo.

Balty has seen Kluber several times this year including his last. They have made him work in all of them: last time 6 innings 4 runs on 8 hits, bout a month ago he went 6 only allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, in may they ran his pitch count up and got him out after 3 innings! They lost 2 of 3 to tampa before break but all the games were tight, I think the plus money on O’s the way to go, although I’m kinda interested in Voth over 3.5 k’s also.
 
So Freeland has went 5.1 or more innings in 11 of his last 14 starts (that throwing out the 1st month as I think we have to this year w the shortened spring). He facing a milw team who doesn’t hit lhp. He has went well past this out total against much better teams the past 2 months. I think over 15.5 outs a gift for Freeland here. Along with a rox +145 FF bet as we have one the best lhp hitting teams in the league vs one who has a collective ops well below .700!! +145 a great price here imo!!
 
So as much I would like to play Brubaker k’s or just pirates at plus money think we need to be wary of the fact he been pretty terrible on 6+ days rest and not having pitched since the 13th. He has far too often shown capable of laying a stinker so maybe best to pass here?
 
2daBank said:
So as much I would like to play Brubaker k’s or just pirates at plus money think we need to be wary of the fact he been pretty terrible on 6+ days rest and not having pitched since the 13th. He has far too often shown capable of laying a stinker so maybe best to pass here?
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He has been really good vs cubs tho and no surprise he has 19 punch outs in 14.2 innings vs them this year!! You could argue his best start vs them was last start as he pitched 6 scoreless but he only fanned 5 which not enough here. Think the 5.5 number at ev money a pretty fair line. There better bets imo.
 
So Junis has never had a start in zona, I often talk about my belief some pitchers struggle w grip in the dry air. He is so reliant on his slider I would think this could be a issue for him here. Snakes also throw a lot of left handed hitters at ya, he doesn’t have a elite change to negate them, that slider could hang up and go right into a lefties wheelhouse. Snakes offense been hitting since the asb, I like the idea of getting plus money for their Ff tt over 2.5!!

I don’t think gilbert very good either, giants have a team ops around .750 vs lhp. Maybe the 1st 5 over better than simply the snakes over? Feel like one these pitchers gonna give up 3+ runs, if not both!!
 
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Even tho im looking to attack the giants and snakes starters would it be wise to play full game over 9 opposed to Ff ov 5? Neither pen been great. Thoughts?
 
Ryno14 said:
Voth and Lodolo MLs prob it for me tonight
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I’m dying for Lodolo k’s to get bet down to 5.5 but so far been sticking at 6.5+125. I lean that but would fucjing love to get him where 6 k’s cashes! I’m not super excited to lay -140 w reds., wouldn’t ya think 1st 5 either ml or laying the half run on reds makes more sense since I don’t think either starter will go past 5. You really want to be on reds pen -140? Just a thought.
 
spottie2935 said:
there was a ton of runs scored this weekend. Does that make Monday an under day ?
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I’ve never been one to think one leads to the other., doesn’t mean I’m right just hard for me to get on board w that:, for most part just think it a matter of who pitching! I have several 1st 5 team total over leans so I hope not! Lol
 
Already discussed the issues I think Pivetta will have if he not striking guys out and tribe don’t strike out a lot. Another problem for both starters is we have a fairly strong wind blowing out at Fenway tonight and both pitchers get a high percentage of outs thru the air!! Another game where I’m having a tough time deciding between the FF over 5 or full game over 9.5? Think I prefer the Ff over 5 as the bet depends on one these starters having a bad outing.,
 
another way to go bout playing O’s would be the Ff tt ov 1.5,, eliminates the guess work on Voth and think they gonna need a couple runs off Kluber to win anyways!!
 
Flexen dominated rangers last year, only start this year was the 3 days rest job before the break where he was fine for 3 innings. We get the huge pen edge and facing otto who very hittable. -140 actually feels cheap here, think seattle bounces back and takes out the Stros series on rangers tonight.
 
Stros getting 2nd crack at this Oller kid who appears to be a gas can! I can’t say Oderizzi is anything more than a avg starter at best, he has made easy work of A’s but this 3rd time they seeing him in a row! Surely oak can muster a few runs?? Stros should smack this kid around, only takes 5 runs to cash the Ff total! One these teams could score 5 on their own!!
 
2daBank said:
I’ve never been one to think one leads to the other., doesn’t mean I’m right just hard for me to get on board w that:, for most part just think it a matter of who pitching! I have several 1st 5 team total over leans so I hope not! Lol
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I understand your thinking but a batter only hits at a high level so many days. so if these batters had a .300 average this weekend and they are a .220 hitter regression will come.

Same with Pitchers if they had a huge ERA they should bounce back if they are capable enough to do so.
 
spottie2935 said:
I understand your thinking but a batter only hits at a high level so many days. so if these batters had a .300 average this weekend and they are a .220 hitter regression will come.

Same with Pitchers if they had a huge ERA they should bounce back if they are capable enough to do so.
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That certainly a fair point. Hitters tend to be streaky as shit tho, so imo more likely ya see them go on a several day tear before a mini slump to average things out. Don’t ya think? But ultimately I still think it greatly falls back on pitching matchups: fri and Saturday we saw a lot of teams best pitchers then yesterday we saw lot more scrubs, and today I seriously couldn’t find hardly any strike out props I loved which is super rare!! End of day it baseball so it incredibly random!! Who knows!! lol
 
spottie2935 said:
I understand your thinking but a batter only hits at a high level so many days. so if these batters had a .300 average this weekend and they are a .220 hitter regression will come.

Same with Pitchers if they had a huge ERA they should bounce back if they are capable enough to do so.
Click to expand...

Far as pitchers I always been a fan of playing one to do well if seeing same team b2b starts and has a bad start the 1st game. All good points imo.,
 
Fair point thats why I was asking baseball is random but stats dont lie. I bet some paylays on unders. Hope I hit a few.

Also betting unders 2nd innings. This is where the crappy hitters usually miss. betting unders on hitters 5-9 in the line-up
 
Do you bet lot of baseball @spottie2935 ? Seem to recall having many good conversations with you during football, hope to see you contributing more to mlb threads, the more smart guys contributing the better!!!!
 
spottie2935 said:
Fair point thats why I was asking baseball is random but stats dont lie. I bet some paylays on unders. Hope I hit a few.
To
Also betting unders 2nd innings. This is where the crappy hitters usually miss. betting unders on hitters 5-9 in the line-up
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Stats don’t lie but they can be incredibly deceiving!! lol, Never known there to be a way to isolate parts of the order with certain kind of bet?, I could see that giving a nice edge!! You just talking live bets?
 
I’m at casino now. Enjoying a cig before I go in since we all a sudden having some pretty nice weather!!! 80-90 w less humidity feels amazing compared to the 100-110 we been dealing with!!
 
spottie2935 said:
no i try to avoid baseball unless i see something. I saw this weekend was crazy with runs so i wanted to add some discussion
Click to expand...

Funny thing is despite all the runs a ton of pitchers still cashed their strike out props!!

Either way, good to have ya around pal, you getting excited for football? Now bout the time I start doing homework!!
 
Oh shit Lodolo in serious trouble in 3rd. Bases juiced no outs. He needs to punch his way out this inning!!
 
Wow. Rogers 4k’s in 2 clean innings himself. He only 1 away from cashing. He so hard to trust even tho I love his stuff!
 
Wouldn’t ya know it plesac and Pivetta back on their games, tribe getting punched out by Pivetta, so much for them not swinging and missing. Lol
 
Lodolo got out the inning. Only 1 k then the double play. 5 k’s thru 3 innings! 1 to go! Maybe shoulda grabbed the over 6.5 at plus money! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Funny thing is despite all the runs a ton of pitchers still cashed their strike out props!!

Either way, good to have ya around pal, you getting excited for football? Now bout the time I start doing homework!!
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baseball all about home runs or strikeouts. fans dont care too much about a one season .300 hitter. Big contracts for pitching and big hitters
 
spottie2935 said:
baseball all about home runs or strikeouts. fans dont care too much about a one season .300 hitter. Big contracts for pitching and big hitters
Click to expand...

Owners have played a huge part in ruining the game, they don’t pay for winning players, only shell out money for guys who walk and hit bombs. Situational hitting be damned. It really a shame. They have taken all the art out of the game!
 
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