MACtion Week 1 Discussion with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
I'll be in with some thoughts tonight, but wanted to get a thread up.

Don't act like you aren't betting these mid-week gems...please throw in your comments/questions


My plays go here:

Tuesday
Ohio U +7.5 for 1 unit
Half unit parlay (to win 1.27): Ball State -20/Ohio game under 27 1H
EMU +9 to win 1 unit
Over 28 2h in Toledo to win 1 unit

MACtion-World Series parlay
Half unit (to win 5.26): Ball State -10.5 1H/Ohio ML/WS G6 Under 8.5

Wednesday
Under 67 in Kalamazoo to win 1 unit
Over 29 2h in Kalamazoo to win 1 unit (buying out of Under bet...2 pt. middle)
Kent State -3.5 to win half unit

6-2, +8.66 units


Tuesday Games

Ball State
Akron +20 58

E Michigan
Toledo -9 52.5

Miami Oh
Ohio University +7 52.5



Wednesday Games

C Mich
W Mich -10 67

N Illinois
Kent State -3.5 66.5
 
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Miami and Ohio is kind of a big rivalry? Is it Ohio's biggest rival?
 
s--k said:
Miami and Ohio is kind of a big rivalry? Is it Ohio's biggest rival?
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Yes. Akron in basketball is kind of close because of Groce being there and longstanding feuds w Zips players/coaches/family members. (Hipsher Family LOL)
 
Tells self...Must stay away from these MAC weeknight games...
bb9c3d57-6e57-4c03-9fe2-1e1b08644b31_text.gif
 
The MAC is definitely an acquired taste. Quick weather check shows everything looking fine for Tues/Weds in Ohio/MI.
 
E Mich and C Mich look to be getting a few too many points at first glance....and the Miami Oh/Ohio total seems too high....

Any thoughts?
 
MAC is more even than I can remember. Typically there is a team on each division that is pretty strong and crushes teams. Not so this year. If best team is Western Mich, they've been upset twice in league play. If next best team is NIU? 2 of their 4 wins have come as dogs and the other a pick'em. Worst team still Akron, nothing new. BG is up though. Really 1-11 or 1-10 are pretty even.

Every dog this week except Akron has a credible case to win straight up.
 
Ball State/Akron:

I mean, I started off this morning wanting to take the 20 with the Zips, but their play on the line of scrimmage has been beyond wretched. If you can't protect your QB and you can't rush the passer, it's pretty hard to make a case for taking anything under 28. Also, they give up 70 percent completion rate and BSU has a decent QB.

Ball St QB Plitt has 40 starts under his belt so Akron isn't going to confuse him. He's got 4 picks in the losses this yer and none in the wins so I'd say a clean sheet is possible. Ball State isn't a very good running team, but I hardly think that matters against Akron. Ball State has some quality but maybe has underachieved a tad considering they were ranked early in the year, they did get a nice win against Army which tells me they are well coached and keep gap discipline.


Ball St has really good LBs and it's hard to say what Akron will be able to do on offense but I'm guessing they chuck it around a bunch especially since they will be down early. We really don't even know what QB is playing...if Kato was going to go I think he could rally his offense but he's been banged up. It probably will be Irons who is very inconsistent.

I think you can only have Ball State in this one, either lay the points or take Cards over 38.5 TT. Slight lean to the under 58 because Akron is capable of packing it in here and scoring single digits.

If Kato (#1) comes into the game, it could give the Zips a spark and make me live bet Akron...
 
I have nightmares of Kato Nelson playing in the 1st Q vs Bowling Green this year. If Akron were to play another QB other than Irons I would hope it is Gibson. Gibson wasn't great vs Miami, but for Akron, he was good enough I suppose. Could be that Nelson still wasn't 100%. Think when he came in vs Ohio after Irons got knocked out they said he wasn't 100% yet and he wasn't good in limited duty late vs Ohio when I needed a back door TD - couldn't do it.
 
Toledo/EMU

What is going on at QB in Toledo? They went to a running QB Finn who is a freshman in the last few games and he went 8/24 last game and 33/73 overall (45 percent) over the last 3. That's not good, not sure if they will stick with him or not. Whoever plays QB has a very capable running game with Kobeck who may have some success against EMU. Toledo's QB play in conjunction with a shaky offensive line has probably been what has been holding them back this year. They do seem to have one of the MAC's better defenses especially against the pass (13th in NCAA yardage), it'll be the best MAC D that EMU has faced.

In contrast, EMU has gotten a spark since Ben Bryant came in at QB in week 3. The Cincy transfer has put up 30 or more points in 4/6 starts and is coming off his best QBR rating of the year against BG. He's even flashed some scrambling ability with a 39 yard TD run against Texas State. Everyone's favorite Muslim slot receiver Hassan Beydoun of EMU runs the Wes Welker underneath routes like a boss, he's got 37 catches total in 4 MAC games. If there's an Over Catches/Yards for him I think it could be playable....he went 8/64 in last year's game.

EMU is top 40 NCAA against the pass and average in conference against the run. I think they will stuff the box and make Finn or whoever beat them in the air. I guess Toledo could come out and run all over them, but I think EMU will be able to get some stops and force some 3rd and longs. I think their defense is nearly as talented as Toledo

My game key would be who you believe in more--Toledo pass D or EMU offense with Bryant? Because if he has success through the air, I think they stay inside the number. Overall, it feels like a down year for Toledo and I'm not sure they have a decent QB at this moment.

Toledo has won 13 of 14 in this match-up and EMU hasn't won in Toledo since 1999. I like what EMU's coach has been doing under the radar by getting them to bowl games. It would be a big statement for them to beat the Dildoes.


Lean to EMU +9, lean to TT over 21.5
 
s--k said:
I have nightmares of Kato Nelson playing in the 1st Q vs Bowling Green this year. If Akron were to play another QB other than Irons I would hope it is Gibson. Gibson wasn't great vs Miami, but for Akron, he was good enough I suppose. Could be that Nelson still wasn't 100%. Think when he came in vs Ohio after Irons got knocked out they said he wasn't 100% yet and he wasn't good in limited duty late vs Ohio when I needed a back door TD - couldn't do it.
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He's up and down, it's hard not to be when you play for the Zips. It seems like Akron's guys play hard for him when he's in...I haven't seen much of Gibson
 
Rusty Trombone said:
E Mich and C Mich look to be getting a few too many points at first glance....and the Miami Oh/Ohio total seems too high....

Any thoughts?
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Agree on EMU; not sure about CMU...need to look some more.

Miami/Ohio both stone cold under teams this year...could only have that side of the total. I'll be posting some in-depth thoughts later on the Bobcats game...
 
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s--k said:
MAC is more even than I can remember. Typically there is a team on each division that is pretty strong and crushes teams. Not so this year. If best team is Western Mich, they've been upset twice in league play. If next best team is NIU? 2 of their 4 wins have come as dogs and the other a pick'em. Worst team still Akron, nothing new. BG is up though. Really 1-11 or 1-10 are pretty even.

Every dog this week except Akron has a credible case to win straight up.
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Every team in the MAC has flaws and has turned in some inexplicable performances. I think overall the defenses might be slightly improved or just the QB play is down. NIU is so young, I kind of feel like they are fugazi but will be for real next year/2023.
 
Ugh might as well kiss my Toledo -9 goodnight after this

Saw it opened at 7 and only lasted a couple minutes, 9 was the first number I could get
 
KJ said:
Ugh might as well kiss my Toledo -9 goodnight after this

Saw it opened at 7 and only lasted a couple minutes, 9 was the first number I could get
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Toledo would be the traditional home play, but just not seeing it with the QB play they are getting...
 
s--k said:
Typically there is a team on each division that is pretty strong and crushes teams.
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That's the only success I've ever had betting the MAC.

In those years when they had a powerhouse team or two I bet the team that could run the ball and had the best rushing D, the most physical and toughest team--for a long time it was Northern Illinois--and had some pretty nice payoffs.

This year I don't see a team that fits that profile

I like this thread though so I'll wait for you guys to find some winners
 
Here's a stat for you--the Bobcats haven't lost by more than 7 in MAC play since 2015. That's 36 games.
Granted they haven't really been dogs too much but still surprises me...you definitely want the hook if you're playing em
 
Marsski said:
Here's a stat for you--the Bobcats haven't lost by more than 7 in MAC play since 2015. That's 36 games.
Granted they haven't really been dogs too much but still surprises me...you definitely want the hook if you're playing em
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That is a good stat. I'd say Ohio has just played its best 3 games of the year. At this point, do want just want Rourke to be the QB and hope for best? He was good vs Kent barring turnovers.
 
s--k said:
That is a good stat. I'd say Ohio has just played its best 3 games of the year. At this point, do want just want Rourke to be the QB and hope for best? He was good vs Kent barring turnovers.
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Yes, I think they start him based on the 31/38 or whatever it was last week. They will play Armani at least a series or two though. I think having Rourke @ QB gives them a better chance to win. Also, gives Cox a boost in receiving props
 
Good confidence booster game for Rourke.

Look forward to your broader thoughts on that game. I know there have been a lot of guys in and out of lineup so wondering what that status is. I'm lining up for a Ohio play just a matter of confidence level.
 
Miami/Ohio U


My Bobcats have been a mess this year, playing two QBs and not getting good production out of either. The Cats have shown all the hallmarks of a poorly coached team with dumb penalties, poor tackling and turnovers galore. But they do keep fighting and are really only a few plays away from having a much better record. Of course, it's hard to be worse than 1-7. Rourke came off the bench last week to go 31/38 for 308 and played very well except for turnovers. As mentioned above, it was a nice confidence boost for him.

The Bobcats rushing attack was supposed to be the strength of the team. I really like Tuggle but for whatever reason they seem to play Allison more in a "hot hand" rotation. I'd be happy to see them hitch the wagon to Tuggle. Miami seems like they have good rush defense, but I question the quality of the MAC rushing attacks they have faced...BSU, EMU, Akron, and Western are all bottom half rushing teams. Minny, Cincy and Army all trampled the Redskins.

I think the Bobcats will press the running game, so it'll be a key match-up especially with how Rourke struggled earlier in the year. Miami's pass defense is nothing to write home about, and if Rourke can be effective I do like the match-up downfield with WR Cox.

Bobcats are banged-up in the secondary and don't have their usual stout D line. Miami has had problems protecting their QB but they do get Gabbert back for this game. Ohio's tackling has gotten better but they have been pretty bad against the run. I think Miami will come out and look to establish the running game. Ohio's defense is getting some class relief here compared to the offensive attacks from Buffalo, Kent, and CMU.

This game generally goes to the wire every year, Miami has narrow wins the past two years. I think it goes to the wire again and I'll take the 7.5 points with a team that hasn't lost by more than 7 in 36 MAC games (since 2015).

I also lean to the under 52.5. First half under 26 could also be a look, Ohio game totals for the first half are 18, 24, 28,17, 20, 23, 31, 24, so 6/8 below 26....the 31 point game had a 99 yard QB run by the way...I might play some Cox props if I can get them...


Play:
Ohio U +7.5 for 1 unit
 
Marsski said:
Miami/Ohio U


My Bobcats have been a mess this year, playing two QBs and not getting good production out of either. The Cats have shown all the hallmarks of a poorly coached team with dumb penalties, poor tackling and turnovers galore. But they do keep fighting and are really only a few plays away from having a much better record. Of course, it's hard to be worse than 1-7. Rourke came off the bench last week to go 31/38 for 308 and played very well except for turnovers. As mentioned above, it was a nice confidence boost for him.

The Bobcats rushing attack was supposed to be the strength of the team. I really like Tuggle but for whatever reason they seem to play Allison more in a "hot hand" rotation. I'd be happy to see them hitch the wagon to Tuggle. Miami seems like they have good rush defense, but I question the quality of the MAC rushing attacks they have faced...BSU, EMU, Akron, and Western are all bottom half rushing teams. Minny, Cincy and Army all trampled the Redskins.

I think the Bobcats will press the running game, so it'll be a key match-up especially with how Rourke struggled earlier in the year. Miami's pass defense is nothing to write home about, and if Rourke can be effective I do like the match-up downfield with WR Cox.

Bobcats are banged-up in the secondary and don't have their usual stout D line. Miami has had problems protecting their QB but they do get Gabbert back for this game. Ohio's tackling has gotten better but they have been pretty bad against the run. I think Miami will come out and look to establish the running game. Ohio's defense is getting some class relief here compared to the offensive attacks from Buffalo, Kent, and CMU.

This game generally goes to the wire every year, Miami has narrow wins the past two years. I think it goes to the wire again and I'll take the 7.5 points with a team that hasn't lost by more than 7 in 36 MAC games (since 2015).

I also lean to the under 52.5. First half under 26 could also be a look, Ohio game totals for the first half are 18, 24, 28,17, 20, 23, 31, 24, so 6/8 below 26....the 31 point game had a 99 yard QB run by the way...I might play some Cox props if I can get them...


Play:
Ohio U +7.5 for 1 unit
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Great stuff Marsski and I agree with you on this one and also think that tonight might be all about the dogs as I am leaning towards playing both Ohio and Eastern, but just can't bring myself to play my adopted Zips although I wouldn't be shocked if they were able to keep it close (or lose by 35 haha). Best of luck tonight man!
 
Western/Central

I don't get this total being so high @ 67. The Broncos have MAC's number 1 overall defense and rush defense, and only have 2 out of 8 games over 65 points this season. Meanwhile, the Chips have only 2 of 8 games that have broken 60. Broncos will be pounding the run and the Chips defense is adept at stopping the run.

I know last year was a shootout, but both teams are in the top 10 nationally in third down conversion defense @ under 30%. You really don't need that many stops to go under 67.

Maybe I'm missing something but I grabbed the under 67 last night thinking it had to go down.

The Play: Under 67 in Kalamazoo
 
Marsski said:
Western/Central

I don't get this total being so high @ 67. The Broncos have MAC's number 1 overall defense and rush defense, and only have 2 out of 8 games over 65 points this season. Meanwhile, the Chips have only 2 of 8 games that have broken 60. Broncos will be pounding the run and the Chips defense is adept at stopping the run.

I know last year was a shootout, but both teams are in the top 10 nationally in third down conversion defense @ under 30%. You really don't need that many stops to go under 67.

Maybe I'm missing something but I grabbed the under 67 last night thinking it had to go down.

The Play: Under 67 in Kalamazoo
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I think the Under is reasonable. The other line of thinking could be WMich Pass O can be good and CMich hasn't had a good pass D. And then CMich likes to throw a lot too. Like you said, last year was crazy high scoring, but the prior 4 games in this series would've gone under this total.
 
I bought that Cards tt over 38* yesterday after reading your post.

It's 40* -110 right now. Good luck tonight Mars...

:shake:
 
Marsski loves him some MACtion!

We were going to go to Kent tomorrow, but I think it is too cold for my friend and definitely too cold for my wife (not really even cold yet). Not going to Akron game because I'd rather see all 3 on TV then miss 2 just to go to Zips game. Zips stadium is pretty nice though. Mars you ever go to the Rubber Bowl? Wish I had gone, never did though. I think they started tearing down part of it.
 
for some reason Mac hoops better for me than Mac foots.. that said im sure ill play some, just not tonight as the WS on and i got a dinner to cook for some peeps.
 
s--k said:
Marsski loves him some MACtion!

We were going to go to Kent tomorrow, but I think it is too cold for my friend and definitely too cold for my wife (not really even cold yet). Not going to Akron game because I'd rather see all 3 on TV then miss 2 just to go to Zips game. Zips stadium is pretty nice though. Mars you ever go to the Rubber Bowl? Wish I had gone, never did though. I think they started tearing down part of it.
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Yes, I saw an Ohio-Akron game at the Rubber Bowl in the 90s. The wind was howling through there. We lost. I wanna to go to the ol Wagon Wheel some year but Akron needs to be quasi-competitive.
 
2daBank said:
for some reason Mac hoops better for me than Mac foots.. that said im sure ill play some, just not tonight as the WS on and i got a dinner to cook for some peeps.
Click to expand...
Usually in hoops the cans and can'ts are much more defined imo
 
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