Late Night Discussion Thread

haha not sure .. but prolly yes. i dont mind talking football any time ... but jsut letting you know that i am tired right now and i dont think as logically , sharply or from as many different angles as when i am alert.
 
I guess the fact that Oregon has to replace a good amount at the skill positions. That and the fact that I fear a 2 QB system with Roper and Costa, though Costa should probably get the job.
 
hey guys.

huskies did score 34 on them last year as i recall. Prefer to lay the two td spreads on games where once i get there , i dont think the other offense has a lot of potential to backdoor me.
 
i will say that we should be more likely to see the bowl game type effort out of oregon as opposed to the shell-shocked disappointing efforts down the stretch after dixon went down last year
 
vegaskyle said:
i will say that we should be more likely to see the bowl game type effort out of oregon as opposed to the shell-shocked disappointing efforts down the stretch after dixon went down last year
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They had like 460 rushing in this game last year. Interesting to see if Costa and Johnson can put up a solid rushing effort.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Ok - any reason Arky St. can't cover 20.5 in this game? Clock should be rolling all game.
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Only thing that concerns me with the dog in that game is that TAMU is a big underachiever from previous regime. If they play up to talent level they can cover that. A lot of behind the scenes problems with this team that started when Francione started his guys over long time starters when he first took over the program and the locker room got split ... and then of course the email scandal last year, player problems yada yada yada.

Just afraid that this team might be better than what they have shown the last few years with a new coach.

lean dog of course.
 
vegaskyle said:
Only thing that concerns me with the dog in that game is that TAMU is a big underachiever from previous regime. If they play up to talent level they can cover that. A lot of behind the scenes problems with this team that started when Francione started his guys over long time starters when he first took over the program and the locker room got split ... and then of course the email scandal last year, player problems yada yada yada.

Just afraid that this team might be better than what they have shown the last few years with a new coach.

lean dog of course.
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I'm close to playing this one. Whole new OL for a run oriented offense. I think A&M will play closer to potential, but not right away.

What scares me is the amount of tackles Arky St loses from last year. I do like that they played in a tough enviorment and performed well (Texas) last year.
 
I'm not sure what we will see from A&M, Sherman wants to throw the ball down the field, but his athletes are at RB and the OL is all new.
 
welcome aboard 27sactw

Big weight advantage for aggies with new ol.

does ark st game vs texas last year mean they take ark st more seriously now ?
 
vegaskyle said:
Does TAMU vs ULM from last eyar concern you though ?
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A little, but that score is a bit misleading:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272580245

It's not like La-Monroe couldn't move the ball. Arky St. was a better rush defense than ULM last year (4.1 to 4.4 ypc), and they return five of the front seven (the secondary is the real concern). The killer in that game was A&M's 9-15 on 3rd downs, and 4-4 on 4th downs.

They also picked off Lancaster twice in A&M territory, and both were returned to ULM territory.

A&M loses 4 senior OL - including several All-Big 12 guys, so I expect this running game to take a moderate step back this year.
 
Arkie State has been on my leans list for a few weeks as I was hoping the line would move to 21 so I could get 21.5, but just don't see it happening. I added Arkie State +21.5 130 (Greek) a few minutes ago, as posted in my thread. I think this one is gonna drop to 20 110 pretty soon, so figured I would take the 4 scores at a decent price while I could.
 
Dmoney416 said:
A little, but that score is a bit misleading:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272580245

It's not like La-Monroe couldn't move the ball. Arky St. was a better rush defense than ULM last year (4.1 to 4.4 ypc), and they return five of the front seven (the secondary is the real concern). The killer in that game was A&M's 9-15 on 3rd downs, and 4-4 on 4th downs.

They also picked off Lancaster twice in A&M territory, and both were returned to ULM territory.

A&M loses 4 senior OL - including several All-Big 12 guys, so I expect this running game to take a moderate step back this year.
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just playing devils advocate dmoney. i wouldnt lay 20.5 with the aggies,.. just throwing out reasons that keep me from playing ark st. Same witht he oregon game. i am not playign either game so just playing devils advocate for discussion purposes.
 
carolinablue said:
Arkie State has been on my leans list for a few weeks as I was hoping the line would move to 21 so I could get 21.5, but just don't see it happening. I added Arkie State +21.5 130 (Greek) a few minutes ago, as posted in my thread. I think this one is gonna drop to 20 110 pretty soon, so figured I would take the 4 scores at a decent price while I could.
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It's 20 at BM already, and I don't see it going to 21. I'm just not sure I want to buy it to 21.
 
vegaskyle said:
just playing devils advocate dmoney. i wouldnt lay 20.5 with the aggies,.. just throwing out reasons that keep me from playing ark st. Same witht he oregon game. i am not playign either game so just playing devils advocate for discussion purposes.
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I realize that, and appreciate it. It gives me an opportunity to find out what reasons there were behind stuff like this.
 
Ark st was sort of night and day , home and away last year too, though they did cover two out of three as a big dog.
 
damn ark st had some nice rushing games last year against decent defenses on the road. The texas effort is commendable but also look at tennessee and at southern miss. pretty nice.
 
Topline reasons for my Arkie State play

-Sherman wants to institute a pro style offense with more of an emphasis on the passing game, but he doesn't have the athletes to pull it off right now IMO, so they will still be heavily reliant on the run with Goodson and Lane, meaning churn and burn with regard to the clock
-Only 1 starter back on the OL, so pass protection could be a serious concern considering the reserves from the past were mainly focused on run blocking previously
-New DC who has moved some guys around in the secondary, which could give ASU QB Leonard an opportunity to pick his spots and gain some confidence early on, leading to play action pass opportunities with Arnold that could spring some big plays against the new attack focused defense of A&M
-Arkie State won't be intimidated after their performance in Austin LY, while Sherman will have lots of pressure on him to "put on a show" in front of the home crowd. If things are close, the troops might get a little restless as the game progresses, leading to guys tightening up a bit as they look to force the issue
-Arkie State is also young on the line but Leonard will have the green light to run when he wants, whereas I think A&M wants McGee to focus more on being a pocket passer this year, which means they may discourage him running like in years past
-If A&M gets up big, McGee will be pulled as Sherman isn't gonna risk losing his guy due to a silly coaching decision, especially with a road trip to New Mexico on deck, as that is a winnable road game for the Aggies
-Arkie State has shown some heart against the big boys. We all know about Texas, but they also hung with Tenn, FAU, and SMiss LY, so this team won't just roll over and quit.

These are just a few thoughts on why I decided to make the play. I don't think A&M loses this one SU, but I also don't think they win going away either. ASU has the talent and the heart to hang within 3 TDs of this group who will be trying to adapt to new schemes on both sides of the ball, so gonna take my chances with the +21.5.
 
I see A&M scoring a lot as the RBs will make plays all night (Goodson, Lane and fresh Gray are all solid) and McGee will hit some big plays in the passing game. Sherman knows how important getting out to a great start.

The big difference from the Ark. St. vs. Texas game from '07 is that Ark St. doesn't have much in terms of game plans since its a new coach and new offense. I could tell you that Colt McCoy is going to run the zone read play, what is A&M going to run???
 
27sactw said:
I see A&M scoring a lot as the RBs will make plays all night (Goodson, Lane and fresh Gray are all solid) and McGee will hit some big plays in the passing game. Sherman knows how important getting out to a great start.

The big difference from the Ark. St. vs. Texas game from '07 is that Ark St. doesn't have much in terms of game plans since its a new coach and new offense. I could tell you that Colt McCoy is going to run the zone read play, what is A&M going to run???
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you close to the program sac ?

wondering if team is more united now or if its the same old drama as the last couple of years.


nice points in your writeup up there CB.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Surprisingly, the same is true for Arky St's OL vs. the A&M DL.
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Yeah, Arkie State matches up really well size wise as they probably avg around 300+ on the OL. The big thing for them, just like with A&M will be the lack of game experience for the young guys. The good thing for ASU though is that at least they aren't having the put in a whole new scheme like A&M is trying to do. I think both teams will get theirs in the running game, so it will come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes in the passing game and who wins the field position battle. As long as the clock keeps ticking, that is all I will care about haha.
 
27sactw said:
I see A&M scoring a lot as the RBs will make plays all night (Goodson, Lane and fresh Gray are all solid) and McGee will hit some big plays in the passing game. Sherman knows how important getting out to a great start.

The big difference from the Ark. St. vs. Texas game from '07 is that Ark St. doesn't have much in terms of game plans since its a new coach and new offense. I could tell you that Colt McCoy is going to run the zone read play, what is A&M going to run???
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Good discussion being added about this game, definitely appreciate your contributions to the thread. Best of luck next weekend!
 
39th rated rush attack last year. Never would have guessed anywhere close to that off the top of my head....
 
Dmoney416 said:
It's 20 at BM already, and I don't see it going to 21. I'm just not sure I want to buy it to 21.
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Yeah, saw that a few mins ago after I locked mine in while the greek was still sitting at 20.5. I am pretty sure the greek will move to 20 soon as I just checked and most of the other sites have already moved there tonight, with Pinny going from 105 to 112 in terms of juice at 20.5.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah, Arkie State matches up really well size wise as they probably avg around 300+ on the OL. The big thing for them, just like with A&M will be the lack of game experience for the young guys. The good thing for ASU though is that at least they aren't having the put in a whole new scheme like A&M is trying to do. I think both teams will get theirs in the running game, so it will come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes in the passing game and who wins the field position battle. As long as the clock keeps ticking, that is all I will care about haha.
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Agreed. I decided not to buy to +21, so hopefully it will steer clear of the 21 mark.
 
outside of left tackle its all new faces for ark st though on the o-line and that is going to be a tough environment for them to come together quickly in.

devils advocate is fun.
 
These types of plays are where I hope watching all those grainy picture 7pm Sun Belt games on tv and online, while all you guys are enjoying the marque matchup ABC 8pm games with Brent and the crew, better pay off for me haha.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Agreed. I decided not to buy to +21, so hopefully it will steer clear of the 21 mark.
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While i see what one is doing with buying it up over 21 to 21.5 ... it gets less likely the larger the spread for a game to fall on the number. Still , when it happens that one time and you bought it ...it feels great. i locked ina 28 with idaho but i doubt that it makes much of a difference compared to 27 or something.
 
carolinablue said:
These types of plays are where I hope watching all those grainy picture 7pm Sun Belt games on tv and online, while all you guys are enjoying the marque matchup ABC 8pm games with Brent and the crew, better pay off for me haha.
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sunbelt degenerate
 
vegaskyle said:
outside of left tackle its all new faces for ark st though on the o-line and that is going to be a tough environment for them to come together quickly in.

devils advocate is fun.
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Definitely a concern, although tempered somewhat by the fact that they brought in 3 pretty solid JUCO guys to quickly address the issue so that they don't have to resort to incoming freshmen to fill all the holes.
 
vegaskyle said:
While i see what one is doing with buying it up over 21 to 21.5 ... it gets less likely the larger the spread for a game to fall on the number. Still , when it happens that one time and you bought it ...it feels great. i locked ina 28 with idaho but i doubt that it makes much of a difference compared to 27 or something.
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I only like to buy at the 3 and 7 mark. I'm pretty sure that buying a half point in any other situation is technically mathematically incorrect. However, this game feels like a game that could end in a 14-24 point win for A&M, so it was a tough decision for me.
 
vegaskyle said:
While i see what one is doing with buying it up over 21 to 21.5 ... it gets less likely the larger the spread for a game to fall on the number. Still , when it happens that one time and you bought it ...it feels great. i locked ina 28 with idaho but i doubt that it makes much of a difference compared to 27 or something.
Click to expand...


I agree completely. More of a psychological thing for me as I usually don't like sitting on 3, 7, 10, 14, or 21, whether as a fav or a dog. I wouldn't buy if we are talking 28 or 31 or 35 or anything like that, but like the added bonus it provides since it is a pretty big swing for me between a win and a push, so the extra is worth it every once in a while. Definitely good point though as I always remember the ones where it comes into play but never the ones where it didn't haha.
 
Anyone counting on JUCO guys has issues, especially on the road early in the year.

K State used to count heavily on JUCO, but they played 4 cupcakes at home before a real game began.
 
carolinablue said:
I agree completely. More of a psychological thing for me as I usually don't like sitting on 3, 7, 10, 14, or 21, whether as a fav or a dog. I wouldn't buy if we are talking 28 or 31 or 35 or anything like that, but like the added bonus it provides since it is a pretty big swing for me between a win and a push, so the extra is worth it every once in a while. Definitely good point though as I always remember the ones where it comes into play but never the ones where it didn't haha.
Click to expand...


yeah. it does bring the fourth score into play ....
 
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