Late Night Discussion Thread

Anyone counting on JUCO guys has issues, especially on the road early in the year.

K State used to count heavily on JUCO, but they played 4 cupcakes at home before a real game began.


JUCO players are hit or miss, not all are busts. Sometimes they give the quick fix at a needed position and it makes a world of difference. Most guys go to JUCO cause they don't have the academics not because they are not talented.
 
Anyone counting on JUCO guys has issues, especially on the road early in the year.

K State used to count heavily on JUCO, but they played 4 cupcakes at home before a real game began.


I have tons of issues. You can tell by the fact that I pretty much play 99% favs every year haha. I understand what you are saying though, just pointing out that often times the JUCO route is a preferred option to the incoming frosh route, especially at the smaller programs where they often times can get steals on the JUCO circuit.
 
well first ... anyone have additional thoughts on oregon and washington ... we kind of flew by that game and someone wanted to talk about it...
 
Care to discuss a new game anyone ?

Curious to know what you guys think about the following games I am watching line moves on. None of these are on my lean list, but could get on if the lines hit a certain point.

Michigan
BM -3 110
Pinny -3.5 101
5D -3.5 +100
Greek -3.5 110

*If it drops to 2.5 110, may be of interest

Cal
BM -4.5 110
Pinny -5.5 +106
5D -5 110
Greek -4.5 110

*If it drops under 4, may be of interest

USC
BM -19 110
Pinny OFF
5D OFF
Greek OFF

*Haven't had time to check up, so quick heads up why its back off?

KANSAS
BM -37 110
Pinny -36 105
5D -36.5 110
Greek -36.5 110

*Figure no need to jump on this one yet as it could keep dropping?

VILLE
BM -3.5 110
Pinny -4.5 +105
5D -3.5 110
Greek -4 110

*If it drops to 3, then may be of interest


Interested in hearing anyone's thoughts on any of these as like I said, none are on my list right now, but if I add any plays to my card at this point, they will probably come from the above contenders, thanks!
 
About Oregon, I posted my thoughts on it in Inspekdah's thread, but basically, I think it should be a game Oregon covers easily, but am afraid because of some of the intangibles..rivalry game, new QB, Locker starting again....I'm just wary cause Oregon could be in a dogfight or get backdoored.
 
With the Utah/Michigan game, I believe from a value stand point, the only side you can take is the Michigan side unless of course you just playing Utah on the ML but with the line dropping that much you missed the boat if you wanted Utah. What do you know about Michigan though? The defense is going to be solid. I think the offense is just a guess though and the OL is not that deep right now and the QB doesn't fit the ideal system so its really a matter if they can get anything going on offense. I am looking at the total in this game cause I believe its low scoring but there is too much unknown for me about the Michigan offense
 
VILLE
BM -3.5 110
Pinny -4.5 +105
5D -3.5 110
Greek -4 110

*If it drops to 3, then may be of interest



I think other than Florida , that louisville has had the worst spring/fall of any team in the nation. That line is dropping for significant reason. Actually considering a moneyline play on kentucky. Hate getting the worst of it and could have gotten a much better number but kind of like the better defense there. I heard Dmoney is trying out for wide receiver for the cardinals because they are so thin there,.


Not sure what is going on with the USC game....
 
I don't like to bet against Oregon becuase they always have so many athletes.

I don't know much about Washington other than the fact thay they still have the same crappy coach.
 
Has UVA found a starting QB yet? Last I heard it was still a 3 way race, with only one of the guys ever attempting a pass in an actual game before. With the line at 19, a part of me says grab it now as it may go back to 21 next week if all is well with Sanchez as everyone may jump on USC big time, even to the point of overcompensation. What do you guys think.
 
VILLE
BM -3.5 110
Pinny -4.5 +105
5D -3.5 110
Greek -4 110

*If it drops to 3, then may be of interest



I think other than Florida , that louisville has had the worst spring/fall of any team in the nation. That line is dropping for significant reason. Actually considering a moneyline play on kentucky. Hate getting the worst of it and could have gotten a much better number but kind of like the better defense there. I heard Dmoney is trying out for wide receiver for the cardinals because they are so thin there,.


Not sure what is going on with the USC game....

The NCAA didn't grant me another year of eligibility. They found out I have 10 units on the Cincy over 6.5 wins and figured it would be a conflict of interest.
 
VILLE
BM -3.5 110
Pinny -4.5 +105
5D -3.5 110
Greek -4 110

*If it drops to 3, then may be of interest



I think other than Florida , that louisville has had the worst spring/fall of any team in the nation. That line is dropping for significant reason. Actually considering a moneyline play on kentucky. Hate getting the worst of it and could have gotten a much better number but kind of like the better defense there. I heard Dmoney is trying out for wide receiver for the cardinals because they are so thin there,.


Not sure what is going on with the USC game....


Yeah the Ville is the one I consider the weakest out of the bunch. Main reason I have it listed is it would be tough to at least not consider a play on the home team if you can get it under a FG, especially since both teams are a little screwed up so to speak.
 
Well ... think i am speculating with two hundred on the usc game at -19. If sanchez gets healthy enough to start that game will be taken off the board and put back up at 20.5 or 21. From there it will be bet up by public and i will play back on the other side. I think when the vast public starts betting these games the week prior , and when the parlay cards and teaser cards get tons of play that the line moves up anyway and i cant get hurt. but the possibility of a 19-23 middle is possible. So i bet 220 to win 200 at cris.
 
I am kind of shocked that they still don't have a #1 either. I watched a lot of their summer voluntary practices on rivals and I hardly ever saw Sanchez throwing the ball to Turner or Hazelton at these work outs, almost seemed like they were not even there. Damian Williams was at like everyone and looked pretty good. Rojo looked ok. I haven't been that impressed with Ausberry either.
 
Well ... think i am speculating with two hundred on the usc game at -19. If sanchez gets healthy enough to start that game will be taken off the board and put back up at 20.5 or 21. From there it will be bet up by public and i will play back on the other side. I think when the vast public starts betting these games the week prior , and when the parlay cards and teaser cards get tons of play that the line moves up anyway and i cant get hurt. but the possibility of a 19-23 middle is possible. So i bet 220 to win 200 at cris.

That's probably a smart bet. UVA won't have the offense to keep up. I've got two concerns running through my mind: 1) USC rests everyone and calls off the dogs up 21 and UVA backdoors it with a FG, 2) USC v. Va Tech in 2004. USC was 17 pt favs against an underrated Va Tech team and won by only 15.
 
With the Utah/Michigan game, I believe from a value stand point, the only side you can take is the Michigan side unless of course you just playing Utah on the ML but with the line dropping that much you missed the boat if you wanted Utah. What do you know about Michigan though? The defense is going to be solid. I think the offense is just a guess though and the OL is not that deep right now and the QB doesn't fit the ideal system so its really a matter if they can get anything going on offense. I am looking at the total in this game cause I believe its low scoring but there is too much unknown for me about the Michigan offense


I'm souring on this total. Is Michigan's defense "that" great? Is it really going to be better than TCU's defense? I don't think 10-7 is happening again. I think I've set my total for the game at 45. I think they'll be enough turnovers in this game to provide short fields for both squads.

Agree completely about the value standpoint on Utah being gone. The fact that it's made it to 3 at some shops has me convinced I overestimated Michigan at this point. I didn't figure it would ever make it past 3'.
 
I like UVA TT Under. If they score over 20 points, they're covering this game. I don't think they do either but I don't want to lose on a 31-13 final
 
If the score was 21-17 in the Mich Game, that would be a decent amount of points in my eyes
 
yeah i am jsut gonna lay off that game i think. i liked both utah and the under in the offseason but too many unkowns for me as far as michigan and i think i can find more value on some known entities instead.
 
I like UVA TT Under. If they score over 20 points, they're covering this game. I don't think they do either but I don't want to lose on a 31-13 final

Seems reasonable depending what they set that team total at ... i doubt its too high.
 
i am kind of souring on my western michigan play that i have been considering ... what you guys think of that game ?
 
My lean to Oregon is the huge difference here in the trenches. Average over 5 ypc and their new RBS will. Washington lets up 4.9 ypc last year and returns only 6 on defense....

Oregon has IMO a top 10 OL and a top 5 secondary. Two keys to scoring at will and stopping Washington's offense. Washington has to replace top 4 wr and rb... think this is the year Ty gets fired.
 
My lean to Oregon is the huge difference here in the trenches. Average over 5 ypc and their new RBS will. Washington lets up 4.9 ypc last year and returns only 6 on defense....

Oregon has IMO a top 10 OL and a top 5 secondary. Two keys to scoring at will and stopping Washington's offense. Washington has to replace top 4 wr and rb... think this is the year Ty gets fired.


good points.

just hope they don't fire Ty ... that team is going to be top half of the pac 10 in 2009 if they keep the coach. Would be a terrible time to fire him based on the number of starters they return for season after this.
 
Yeah VA TT will be around 14 or so then... not worth it at all for a home team playing for pride late.
 
Been looking at it alot more... that girl and Ok St that is... still can get 6.5 on Greek, might lock in tomo
 
ya 6.5 is the number i got, wish i had 6 but a day too late. just hate seeing a hook next to my number, its psychological.


kyle, inspekdah, what is keep u from playing the game
 
I haven't been able to put my finger on why i havent bet them yet ... which usually means i end up betting them ... but there are alarm bells going off in my head in regards to that game ... just not sure why yet.
 
I haven't been able to put my finger on why i havent bet them yet ... which usually means i end up betting them ... but there are alarm bells going off in my head in regards to that game ... just not sure why yet.

It's because Robinson stinks. :pillow::hang::whip:
 
i think north texas can score points. so i would not lay the number since the backdoor would be open in my mind. i only like laying the huge numbers when i think that when i get to the number the other team is likely done. Thing is ... north texas could score a ton and kstate could still cover. over might be worth a look even at a high number...?
 
It's because Robinson stinks. :pillow::hang::whip:


If you have a problem with one of my players you talk to me ... don't whip robinson or strangle robinson with a tie ..... he is just a kid doing things the right way ... dont go after him ... go after me i'm 39 , I'm a man !
 
Nothing has stopped me yet... I like to put all my plays in when I can add totals, HT's, etc... with them for the Week 1 but I'm not going to wait... will probably jump on Ok St. tomorrow
 
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