July - August Bases

[mrpickem]

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-0
2022 ML - 240-168 +21.0u
LAST RLF- 1-0
2022 RLF- 133-149 -6.0u
LAST UN - 0-2
2022 UN - 72-56-6 +10.7u
LAST OV - 0-0
2022 OV - 85-77-8 -1.0u

Today:
ML: LAD, HOU, NYM, MIL
RLF: LAD, HOU, NYM, MIL
UNDER: NA
OVER: PIT, NYM

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [9-4 +27.97u]
2022 - [341-373 +32.31u]

Saturday:

• 5/4.10 Phillies -122
• 5/6.35 Rays +127
• 5/3.36 RED SOX -149
• 4/3.54 Marlins -113
• 4/3.85 ASTROS u8½ -104
• 4/6.44 Reds +161
• 4/4.40 Jays o7½ +110
• 3/4.11 Padres +137
• 3/2.83 ORIOLES +1½ -106
• 3/1.82 ANGELS +1½ -165

Pend: DET, CHC U

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 5-0 :clapping2:​

2022 ML - 245-168 +26.4u ​

LAST RLF- 3-1​

2022 RLF- 136-150 -3.6u ​

LAST UN - 0-0​

2022 UN - 72-56-6 +10.7u ​

LAST OV - 2-0​

2022 OV - 87-77-8 +1.0u​

​

Today:​

ML: MIA, PHI, CIN, CLE​

RLF: PHI​

UNDER: HOU, CHC​

OVER: TOR, CLE​

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4/3.88 TIGERS -103
• 4/3.64 Cubs u10 -110
• 1/1.00 Marlins +100

Notes: Adding 1u to MIA play for max 5u and Jays/Rays plays from earlier are both game 1

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck Mista!

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [7-6 +1.64u]
2022 - [348-379 +33.95u]

Sunday:

• 5/7.30 Os +146
• 5/4.55 Red Sox -110
• 5.80/4 MARINERS -145
• 4/3.48 Dbacks -115
• 4/7.00 PADRES +175
• 4/4.04 ROYALS o7½ +101
• 4/3.67 RAYS o8½ -109
• 4/3.70 ASTROS -1½ -108
• 4/3.60 A'S o6½ -111
• 4/3.64 Pirates o7½ -110
• 4/5.72 Reds +143
• 4/3.48 Phillies o7½ -115
• 4/3.48 Giants o8½ -115
• 2.34/4 PIRATES +171
• 3/2.31 Marlins -130

randoms...

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-4​

2022 ML - 246-172 +23.2u ​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

2022 RLF- 137-151 -3.6u ​

LAST UN - 1-2​

2022 UN - 73-58-6 +9.2u ​

LAST OV - 1-0​

2022 OV - 88-77-8 +2.0u​

​

Today:​

ML: PIT, CIN, HOU, BAL, AZ, OAK, LAD​

RLF: HOU, LAD​

UNDER: SF​

OVER: DET, WA, PIT, TOR, CHC, SEA, PHI​

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [10-5 +27.43u]
2022 - [348-379 +61.38u]

Best day of the season! :smiledrinkbeer:

Monday:

• 4/3.60 MARLINS -111
• 4/5.52 Cubs +138
• 6/2.84 ASTROS -211
• 3.20/7 ATHLETICS +219
• 5/5.10 METS -1½ +102
• 4/6.64 MARINERS +166
• 4/4.44 TWINS +111
• 4/3.70 PADRES u8 -108
• 2/3.30 DIAMONDBACKS +165

Pend: TB

randoms...

​

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 3-2​

2022 ML - 249-174 +23.4u ​

LAST RLF- 2-1​

2022 RLF- 139-152 -2.4u ​

LAST UN - 0-1​

2022 UN - 73-59-6 +8.0u ​

LAST OV - 3-6-1​

2022 OV - 91-83-9 -1.6u​

​

Today:​

ML: SEA​

RLF: NA​

UNDER: SD​

OVER: NA​

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 3/4.58 CARDINALS +153
• 4/5.54 Tigers +135 (Game 1)

randoms

• 
  CUBS ...at these odds, the Cubs have value to take, my model only favors the brewcrew slightly even if they are the better team with the edge in pitching matchup given the home/road splits and the game being in Milwaukee. But at anything +130 or better I cant resist the scrappy Cubs here.
• LAD: Initial scans come back negative for Craig Kimbrel
• ARZ: David Peralta crushes grand slam against Rockies
• COL: C.J. Cron homers twice, leads Rockies past D-backs
• OAK: Frankie Montas leaves start with a shoulder issue
• NYM: Jacob deGrom strikes out five in his first rehab start
• BOS: Xander Bogaerts exits due to left thigh laceration
• WAS: Juan Soto diagnosed with a tight left calf on Sunday
• HOU: Valdez, Astros combine for 20 K's against Angels
• TB: Harold Ramirez slugs two-run homer vs. Blue Jays
• TB: Shane Baz strikes out seven in win over Blue Jays

​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [8-3 +27.46u]
2022 - [356-382 +88.84u]

Wow, 3 out of 4 days in July so far I've made 27+ units per day! That doesn't suck!

​

Tuesday:

• 6.60/3 Dodgers -220
• 6/3.95 Phillies -152
• 5/7.10 Tigers +142
• 4/3.92 Rangers -102
• 4/3.67 BLUE JAYS -1½ -109
• 3/3.96 Cardinals +132
• 3/3.81 Cubs +127
• 3/3.51 Mariners +117
• 3/2.22 MARLINS -135

randoms...

​

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-0​

2022 ML - 250-174 +24.9u ​

LAST RLF- 0-0​

2022 RLF- 139-152 -2.4u ​

LAST UN - 0-1​

2022 UN - 73-60-6 +6.9u ​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 91-83-9 -1.6u​

​

Today:​

ML: ATL, TOR​

RLF: ATL, TOR​

UNDER: NA​

OVER: NA​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [6-3 +12.59u]
2022 - [362-385 +101.43u]

$ JULY 40-21 +97.1u :shocked:

Wednesday:

• 4/8.60 Cubs +215
• 4/4.32 DODGERS u9 +108
• 4/3.88 ATHLETICS u8½ -103
• 4/4.16 MARLINS u7 +104
• 4/2.76 YANKEES -1½ -145
• 4/3.54 ASTROS u8½ -113
• 3/5.22 Tigers +174
• 4/3.96 Twins -101
• 3/4.92 Athletics +164
• 5/3.13 Mets -160
• 3/3.93 GIANTS -1½ +131
• 4/4.20 Rangers -1½ +140

randoms...

• PHI: Schwarber hammers two homers in rout of Nationals
• ARZ: Varsho connects for a 3-run home run vs. Giants
• LAD: CT scan shows no issues in Craig Kimbrel's back
• OAK: No MRI results yet on Frankie Montas' shoulder
• KC: X-rays clean on Bobby Witt Jr.'s hand after exit
• BAL: Mullins reaches five times, hits a walk-off double
• CIN: Lodolo throws 4 2/3 scoreless in return from IL
• NYM: Scherzer whiffs 11 over six shutout IP in return
• CHC: Kyle Hendricks leaves start with a sore shoulder
• PIT: Suwinski swats two-run HR as Pirates top Yankees

​

​

 

[inZane]

Keep it up Mr. P!

:cheers3:

 

[2daBank]

You went from +4-5 units to +100 in a freaking blink of a eye!! Nice work!!

Gotta love hot streaks!

 

[2daBank]

I’m kinda shocked Pads so high in the power rankings, not sure I’m a big believer in their offense, they got some pitching tho!!

 

[2daBank]

You high on pads? I’m not saying they can’t end up in NLCS, just at moment when I look at lineup i don’t feel like it scaring anyone. Obviously it get deeper when the oft injured Tatis jr comes back, manny mo been in and out of it a lot lately, and just not a ton of pop. The pitching has been real good.

Im little surprised Red Sox up as high also, they def a team I think could end up higher or in ALCS, but right at the moment they really need to start getting pitchers back healthy!! I know Whitlock be back, I hear Sale coming but who knows how long he stays healthy? Paxton I guess also? No clue what he will give them?

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [7-4-1 +16.84u]
2022 - [369-389 +118.27u]

Thursday:

• 4/6.08 Marlins +152
• 4/6.00 Red Sox +150
• 3/6.27 Tigers +209
• 4/3.64 PHILLIES u10 -110
• 4/2.58 Astros -1½ -155

Still considering others as 3 games still unlined.

randoms...
NATS 2-16 on Thursday last 365 days (+13.2u for fade)
CHW 4-15 on Thursday last 365 days (+15.1u for fade)
CHW games L30 days avg 10.43 runs with avg total of 8.33 ~ +2.1 runs avg > total

LAD and UNDER ...Against better judgment, I'm considering laying huge juice today with Gonsolin who has been amazing at home. LAD is 14-1 @home with him starting since last year (+12.8u or 44.5% ROI). He's been the best starter in the league so far this year with even crazier numbers at home(0.88 ere / 0.71 WHIP, 2.4 hits per 9inn)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 4-3​

2022 ML - 256-180 +20.1u ​

LAST RLF- 2-4​

2022 RLF- 141-159 -8.9u ​

LAST UN - 0-0​

2022 UN - 76-61-6 +8.7u ​

LAST OV - 2-3​

2022 OV - 94-87-9 -2.9u​

​

Today:​

ML: HOU, WA, ATL​

RLF: HOA, ATL​

UNDER: PHI​

OVER: NA​

​

 

[mrpickem]

You high on pads? I’m not saying they can’t end up in NLCS, just at moment when I look at lineup i don’t feel like it scaring anyone. Obviously it get deeper when the oft injured Tatis jr comes back, manny mo been in and out of it a lot lately, and just not a ton of pop. The pitching has been real good.

Im little surprised Red Sox up as high also, they def a team I think could end up higher or in ALCS, but right at the moment they really need to start getting pitchers back healthy!! I know Whitlock be back, I hear Sale coming but who knows how long he stays healthy? Paxton I guess also? No clue what he will give them?

That's strictly numbers power, I think SD a little high too, but def top 10. I still have doyers/yanks almost dead even for 1st with Hou closing. Mil not that impressive to me either but bosox are surely coming and I like them today with the # vs cole...may take RL as well but usually don't come into play in NY games

 

[2daBank]

That's strictly numbers power, I think SD a little high too, but def top 10. I still have doyers/yanks almost dead even for 1st with Hou closing. Mil not that impressive to me either but bosox are surely coming and I like them today with the # vs cole...may take RL as well but usually don't come into play in NY games

I have dodgers like 17, I’m a huge hater tho!! Lol. Honestly I do have them further down but obviously they can’t be outside top 6-7. Some of that injured pitchers, some of it I don’t think their lineup as scary as past seasons with lot of guys on down years, plus they I’ll always knock them a few spots cause I know they will come up small in playoffs!! I don’t count the Rona year, the only year this overrated group ever won!! But maybe I should give them more credit for Stros sign stealing year as they did get thru playoffs that season!! Lol

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 4/4.00 DIAMONDBACKS +100
• 4/1.55 DODGERS -258
• 4/4.44 Mariners +111

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-3 +6.48u]
2022 - [374-393 +124.75u]

opcorn:

Friday:

• 3/7.29 NATIONALS +243
• 4/6.20 Tigers +155
• 4/4.08 DIAMONDBACKS u8 +102
• 4/3.48 Red Sox o9½ -115
• 4/4.08 RANGERS +102
• 3/2.19 Orioles -137
• 3/4.35 Marlins +145
• 4/2.50 Diamondbacks -160
• 5/2.33 Dodgers -215
• 3/3.06 Guardians +102
• 3/3.24 Mariners +108
• 3/3.30 RAYS -1½ +110

5* WA, DET
4* AZ U, BOS O, TEX,
3* BAL, MIA, AZ, LAD, NYY 1', CLE, SEA, TB 1'


Pend: NYY -1'

randoms...

Best vs LHP (LAST 365 DAYS NOT INCLUDING SEPT)

1. COL 24-20 +11.7u +23.5% ROI
2. KC 23-19 +10.2 +22.9
3. ATL 33-14 +13.5 +18.1%
4. NYY 28-14 +8.5 +11.7%
5. CLE 23-21 +5.4 +10.7%
6. DET 21-22 +4.9 +10.6%

Note: HOU, LAD, SD, SF ALL WIN > 60% BUT LOSE $$

Best Fade vs LHP(Team record with units/ROI to fade)

1. TOR 13-17 +9.9u +30.3% ROI
2. CHW 11-15 +7.0 +23.2%
3. CIN 13-23 +7.6 +14.4%
4. CHC 14-22 +6.5 +13.0%
5. SEA 17-25 +6.1 +11.3%
6. MIL 20-20 +4.6 +11.2%

Note: WA 18-29, PIT 17-33 BOTH WIN < 40% BUT BARELY PROFITABLE TO FADE

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-2​

2022 ML - 257-182 +17.6u ​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

2022 RLF- 142-160 -9.1u ​

LAST UN - 2-0​

5-YR UN 826-604 +176.7u +10.9% ROI​

LAST OV - 0-0​

5-YR OV 812-666 +92.6u +5.6% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: BAL, DET, AZ, CHC​

RLF: BAL, AZ​

UNDER: NYM, AZ​

OVER: BOS​

 

[inZane]

Good luck Mr. P, what's your pick on that Boston total?

 

[Gandolf]

Good luck Mr. P, what's your pick on that Boston total?

I see BOS Over in the list under the bolded picks and in Chasin' The Line

 

[mrpickem]

I see BOS Over in the list under the bolded picks and in Chasin' The Line

Good luck Mr. P, what's your pick on that Boston total?

The over, same as the sleuth @Gandolf said :shake:

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [8-4 +15.37u]
2022 - [382-397 +140.12u]

Friday:

• 5/5.85 Mariners +117
• 4/3.96 PHILLIES o8½ -101
• 4/3.85 BREWERS u7½ -104
• 4/3.88 PADRES -103
• 4/4.84 WHITE SOX -1½ +121
• 4/4.24 MARINERS u7 +106
• 4/4.00 Athletics OVER 8½ +100
• 3/2.56 Angels -117
• 3/2.48 Guardians -121
• 3/2.44 BRAVES -1½ -123
• 4/1.68 BREWERS -238
• 2/3.28 GIANTS -1½ +164

Pend; Maybe HOU -1' but not at -186 :rofl:



5* SEA
4* SL O, SD, MIL U, CHW -1', OAK O, HOU 1', SEA U
3* ATL 1', MIL, LAA, CLE, NYY 1'

MOD: ATL, SD, BAL, SEA

PROF: LAA, TOR, SEA

streak..*CHW 1', AZ 1', NYY 1', TB, CHC, SEA, BAL, KC 1'
TIER2..MIN 1', CLE 1', PIT 1', WA 1', SF 1'
LHP- ATL, LAD,

randoms...

Starters today over last 730 days home/away splits.

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 2-0​

2022 ML - 259-182 +20.1u ​

LAST RLF- 0-1​

2022 RLF- 142-161 -18.1u ​

LAST UN - 1-0​

5-YR UN 827-604 +177.7 +11.0% ROI​

LAST OV - 1-0​

5-YR OV 813-666 +93.6u +5.6% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: LAA, HOU, CLE, MIL, WA​

RLF: LAA, HOU, CLE, MIL​

UNDER: MIL, SEA​

OVER: SL, OAK, CIN​

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [6-6 +2.54u]
2022 - [388-403 +142.66u]

Cooled off yesterday, but still showed a minimal profit.

Sunday:

• 5/5.40 Phillies +108
• 5/4.35 PADRES -115
• 4/4.00 METS u7 +100
• 4/3.96 PADRES u7½ -101
• 4/3.85 ATHLETICS +1½ -104
• 4/3.96 ATHLETICS u8 -101
• 4/3.45 BREWERS u8 -116
• 4/2.82 Rays -142
• 3/3.06 Diamondbacks +102
• 3/2.68 Angels -112
• 3/3.45 Royals +115
• 3/3.15 Twins +105

Pend: TOR, LAD if odds get right...

​

5* PHI, SD
4* NYM U, MIL U, LAD, SD U, OAK+1', OAK U, TOR, TB
3* AZ, SD, LAA, KC, MIN


randoms...

• CIN: Nick Senzel hits walk-off single in win over TB
• SF: Belt leaves with knee soreness, could play Sunday
• SF: Rodón whiffs 12 in a complete-game victory over SD
• TB: Aranda to be recalled from Triple-A on Sunday
• NYM: Next rehab start for deGrom (shoulder) in Triple-A
• CLE: Nolan Jones pulverizes first career homer in win
• TB: Kiermaier leaves against Cincinnati with hip issue
• SEA: Mariners option George Kirby to Triple-A Tacoma
• TB: Cash; Wander Franco (wrist) will be placed on IL
• TEX: Brett Martin notches his second consecutive save

• CLE 16-9 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+10.5u +36.4% ROI)
• CHW 18-10 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+6.6u +16.7% ROI)
• MIN 14-11 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+4.8u +15.2% ROI)
• NYY 12-15 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +10.1u +34.5% ROI)
• AZ 8-18 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +7.7u +18.3% ROI)
• KC 9-16 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +6.0u +17.2% ROI)

• SMYLY ON ROAD 16-6 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+13.0u +51.3% ROI)
• ANDERSON AT HOME 20-7 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+11.6u +29.3% ROI)
• ALCANTARA ON ROAD 18-13 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+9.3u +28.2% ROI / RL +24.8% ROI)
• TAILLON ON ROAD 14-7 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+6.1u +21.2% ROI)
• DUNNING AT HOME IS 17-8 ON RL (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+10.9u 36.3% ROI)

• OAK +1' and UNDER ...A’s don’t have the offense to keep up w/HOU, but their edge in pitching today should keep it close. Odorizzi comes off his worst start this year KC(4inn 5 ER, 9H). Irvin has been the A's best this year with 3.24 ERA/1.152 WHIP overall and 1.49/0.992 at home. Hou only 10-20 SU in Sunday road games over the last 2.5 seasons. May see the A's get 2 straight, but the RL is the safer play imho.

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 2-5​

2022 ML - 261-187 +12.9u ​

5-YR ML - 60.0% +374.5u +5.8% ROI​

LAST RLF- 2-3​

5-YR RLF- 51.6% +127.4u +4.0% ROI​

LAST UN - 2-0​

5-YR UN - 57.9% +179.7 +11.1% ROI​

LAST OV - 0-2​

5-YR OV - 54.9% +91.4u +5.5% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: PIT, OAK​

RLF: NA​

UNDER: NYM​

OVER: SD​

 

[mrpickem]

ADDS

• 4/3.54 DODGERS -1½ -113
• 3/5.04 Tigers +168

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-9 -16.9u]
2022 - [393-412 +125.76u]

Monday:

• 6/4.08 Marlins -147
• 5/5.40 Mets +108
• 5/6.50 Tigers - Game #1 +130
• 4/4.04 PIRATES o8 +101
• 4/3.96 CARDINALS u7½ -101
• 4/4.00 Rockies u11½ +100
• 3/3.90 Rockies +130

My winning streak finally went dry after 10 straight winning days, yesterday went in the shitter.

Angels blow, still cant believe I lost with them dogs vs red hot O's last 2 days in a row




randoms...

• SEA: Carlos Santana pulls two big flies in win over TOR
• SF: Wilmer Flores goes deep twice in win over SD
• BOS: Trevor Story plates three as Red Sox beat Yankees
• HOU: Korey Lee leads Astros past Athletics on Sunday
• ATL: Braves acquire Robinson Canó from Padres for cash
• KC: Whit Merrifield heading for MRI on injured toe
• STL: Albert Pujols hits 684th homer in Cards' victory
• ATL: Austin Riley tallies homer, three RBI against Nats
• PIT: Bryan Reynolds exits with discomfort in right side
• NYM: Starling Marte (groin) now likely to avoid IL

• SL 9-3 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (+7.4u +51.8% ROI)
• MIN 13-4 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (+9.7u +45.1% ROI)
• PHI 9-3 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (+4.6u +27.4% ROI)
• SF 11-5 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (+5.8u +24.8% ROI)
• TB 5-11 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +9.1u +50.9% ROI)
• MIA 5-10 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +5.1u +25.9% ROI)
• LAA 6-10 ON MONDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +4.7u +23.0% ROI)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 3-1​

2022 ML - 261-187 +12.9u ​

5-YR ML - 60.0% +375.2u +5.8% ROI​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

5-YR RLF- 51.6% +126.4u +4.2% ROI​

LAST UN - 1-1​

5-YR UN - 57.8% +178.5 +11.0% ROI​

LAST OV - 2-0​

5-YR OV - 55.0% +94.4u +5.6% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: PIT​

RLF: NA​

UNDER: SL, COL​

OVER: MIA​

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [3-4 -4.64u]
2022 - [396-416 +121.12u]

Like I've always contested, this shit happens in runs and unfortunately, I've begun a down cycle. I need to bounce out of it soon or it won't be pretty.

Tuesday:

• 6/3.80 ATL -158
• 5/3.94 SD -127
• 5/5.60 DET +112
• 5/4.46 Cubs -112
• 5/3.31 Cle-G#1 -151
• 4/4.28 TB +107
• 4.68/4 HOU -117
• 4.08/4 M's -102
• 4/2.92 NYY -1½ -137
• 3/3.03 METS o8½ +101
• 3/3.00 SF -1½ +100
• 3/3.39 LAD -1½ +113
• 3/2.26 MIN -133
• 2/3.04 A's +152

Pend: MIA

randoms...

• HOU 22-6 ON TUESDAY L365 DAYS (+13.43u +30.2% ROI)
• NYY 20-6 ON TUESDAY L365 DAYS (+10.3u +22.7% ROI)
• PHI 6-18 ON TUESDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +14.5u +54.8% ROI)
• OAK 7-17 ON TUESDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +10.2u +30.4% ROI)

• WEBB AT HOME 23-5 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+16.2u +36.5% ROI)
• Jordan Lyles ON ROAD 8-22 (TEAM) L730 DAYS
• Josiah Gray AT HOME IS 4-12 SU & RL (TEAM) L730 DAYS (FADE RL FOR +8.3u 43.6% ROI)

Today's starter over last 730 days not including Sept

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-1​

2022 ML - 265-190 +13.7u ​

LAST RLF- 0-1​

2022 RLF- 145-167 -13.2u​

LAST UN - 2-0​

30 DAYS UN - 26-25-5 -1.2U​

LAST OV - 2-0​

30 DAYS OV - 26-27-3 -3.9u​

​

Today:​

ML: CLE, NYY, BOS, ATL, MIN, SF​

RLF: CLE, NYY, ATL, MIN, SF​

UNDER: CLE​

OVER: MIA, ATL​

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/3.52 Marlins -142
• 4/6.00 Guardians G2 +150
• 4/6.80 Phillies +170

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [7-9 -8.97u]
2022 - [403-425 +112.15u]

Wednesday:

• 6/3.61 PADRES (SD) -166
• 5/5.45 Tigers +109
• 4/4.08 MARINERS (SEA) GM-1 +102
• 5/3.05 Marlins -164
• 4/3.67 White Sox -109
• 3/5.01 Athletics +167
• 4/5.48 Mets +137
• 4/2.76 Dodgers -145
• 3/2.80 BLUE JAYS u8 -107
• 3/2.24 CUBS -134
• 2/3.32 Red Sox +166
• 2/3.10 Phillies -1½ +155

randoms...

• KC 12-10 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (+8.17u +37.9% ROI)
• NYY 17-5 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (+9.8u +24.6% ROI)
• BOS 17-9 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (+8.2u +24.0% ROI)
• CIN 6-18 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +13.95u +42.3% ROI)
• CHW 10-14 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +8.37u +31.1% ROI)
• NYM 9-14 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +7.59u +30.7% ROI)
• TEX 5-18 ON WEDNESDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +9.66u +27.4% ROI)
• JT Brubaker ON ROAD 3-23 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (FADE RL FOR +17.8u 37.2% ROI)
• TEX: Jonah Heim was unavailable Tuesday due to illness
• SF: Logan Webb strikes out eight over six scoreless IP
• NYY: Gerrit Cole fans 11 across seven shutout frames
• NYY: Clay Holmes tagged with four runs, loss Tuesday
• LAD: Freddie Freeman homers as part of a four-hit night
• LAA: Mike Trout pulled before fifth with back spasms
• TOR: José Berríos ties career-high with 13 strikeouts
• MIA: X-rays turn up clean on Garrett Cooper's left knee
• BOS: Trevor Story undergoing X-rays on bruised hand
• WAS: Mariners @ Nats postponed due to rain Tuesday/DH today

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 4-2​

60 DAYS ML - 175-125 +6.7u ​

LAST RLF- 4-2​

60 DAYS RLF- 96-111 -11.5u​

LAST UN - 2-0​

60 DAYS UN - 60-61-6 -6.4U​

LAST OV - 0-1​

60 DAYS OV - 45-54-5 -13.9u​

​

Today:​

ML: NYM, TB, LAA​

RLF: TB, LAA​

UNDER: MIN, MIA, TOR, SL, CHC, TEX, LAA​

OVER: NA​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-7 -4.96u]
2022 - [408-432 +107.19u]

Thursday:
6/3.87 Marlins -155
5/5.05 Giants +101
4/4.20 YANKEES -1½ +105
4/4.44 ASTROS -1½ +111
3/3.72 Rockies +124

 

[mrpickem]

Adds

• 4/7.84 Nationals +196
• 6/2.67 Guardians -225

 

[2daBank]

Love the rox play.

I know pirates pretty terrible/lineup doesn’t set up well at all against lhp but man that a big price to lay with Garrett who I think a avg lhp at best. Pirates have kinda owned the fish also, even after blowing yesterday game in extras they have still won 14 of the last 21 meetings w them.

Yesterdays girl super hot!! Gl

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [3-4 -6.74u]
2022 - [411-436 +100.45u]

Friday:

• 4/6.08 Phillies +152
• 5/5.60 Giants +112
• 4/2.08 ASTROS (HOU) -192
• 2/2.18 ASTROS (HOU) -1½+109
• 2/6.02 Royals +301
• 4/6.64 Tigers +168
• 4/2.99 Rockies -134
• 4/4.12 ORIOLES +103
• 2/3.32 Diamondbacks +166
• 2/3.68 Angels +184

Pend: SEA

​

5* PHI, SF, KC, DET, HOU,
4* COL, BAL, SEA,
3* AZ, LAA

MOD: PHI, SF, KC, DET, HOU, CHW, LAA

PROF: MIN

Streak..AZ 1', PIT, BAL, PHI, BOS, CHW 1',
TIER2...PHI, DET, PIT, AZ
LHP.....ATL, COL, SF, MIN

randoms...

• COL 14-9 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (+9.26u +36.2% ROI)
• SEA 17-9 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (+8.85u +28.9% ROI)
• NYY 16-6 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (+8.66u +23.3% ROI)
• LAA 7-18 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +10.36u +31.1% ROI)
• CHC 6-17 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +9.92u +29.5% ROI)
• MIA 8-19 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +9.42u +25.1% ROI)
• TEX 7-18 ON FRIDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +9.60u +23.8% ROI)

• German Marquez AT HOME 21-12 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+8.4u 20.5% ROI)
• Yu Darvish AT HOME 24-11 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+7.8u 13.3% ROI)
• Jordan Montgomery AT HOME 19-9 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+4.6u 9.3% ROI)
• Bumgarner ON ROAD 7-21 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (FADE RL FOR +10.3u 22.3% ROI)
• Hunter Greene ON ROAD 1-8 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (FADE RL FOR +6.3u 38.8% ROI)
• Stroman AT HOME 6-12 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (FADE RL FOR +7.7u 45.9% ROI)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 2-0​

2022 ML - 274-194 +15.6u ​

LAST RLF- 0-1​

2022 RLF- 150-173 -15.4u​

LAST UN - 0-0​

2022 UN - 98-100-10 -10.5U​

LAST OV - 2-2​

2022 OV - 67-83-7 -23.1u​

​

Today:​

ML: KC, DET, SEA​

RLF: SEA​

UNDER: NA​

OVER: CHC, SL​

 

[mrpickem]

adds

flipped off M's

• 4/5.40 PIRATES +135
• 5/3.45 Cardinals -145
• 4/5.56 Rangers +139

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-9 -9.88u]
2022 - [415-445 +90.57u]

Saturday:

• 6/3.82 Cardinals -157
• 5/2.15 Braves -233
• 4/3.28 Giants -122
• 5/2.73 Padres -183
• 3/4.56 Tigers +152
• 5/2.42 Mets -207
• 4/3.64 DODGERS -1½ -110
• 3/3.12 NATIONALS u8½ +104
• 3/3.12 BREWERS o8 +104
• 3/2.40 DIAMONDBACKS +1½ -125

randoms...

• LAD: Kershaw goes perfect until the 8th against the Angels; pitches 8 shut out innings
• BOS: Sox prevail over rival Yanks on WP in 11th
• NYY: Manager Boone ejected from game against the Red Sox
• SEA: Ray, Rodriguez shine as M's win 12th straight
• LAD: Dodger Stadium workers won't strike during ASG
• LAD: Agent sues Fox host for libel over Freeman claim
• WAS: Nats' Doolittle set for elbow surgery; season over
• BAL: Bullpen blip brings O's win streak to an end
• CLE: Plesac yielded five runs (two earned) on six hits over 3.2 innings in Friday's win over Detroit
• CLE: Stephan struck out two batters in a perfect inning and picked up a save over Detroit on Friday.

• PIT 16-12 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (+11.57u +40.1% ROI)
• MIA 15-10 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (+8.30u +28.7% ROI)
• TEX 13-11 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (+6.57u +25.8% ROI)
• COL 17-14 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (+6.81u +20.1% ROI)
• HOU 11-17 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +12.38u +40.9% ROI)
• SD 9-17 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +10.97u +36.5% ROI)
• CIN 8-19 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +10.16u +26.9% ROI)
• MIL 13-15 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +6.24u +21.4% ROI)
• NYM 11-16 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +6.92u +21.4% ROI)
• WA 8-20 ON SATURDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +9.04u +21.2% ROI)

• Logan Gilbert ON ROAD 13-4 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+12.12u 69.3% ROI)
• Max Scherzer ON ROAD 16-6 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+8.37u 26.7% ROI)
• Max Fried 15-6 ON ROAD (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+7.95u 24% ROI)
• Stroman AT HOME 6-12 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (FADE RL FOR +7.7u 45.9% ROI)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-3​

2022 ML - 275-197 +13.6u ​

LAST RLF- 1-0​

2022 RLF- 151-173 -14.3u​

LAST UN - 0-0​

2022 UN - 98-100-10 -10.5U​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 67-83-7 -23.1u​

​

Today:​

ML: ATL, SF, NYM​

RLF: ATL, SF, NYM​

UNDER: WA​

OVER: TEX, SF, LAA​

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 2/5.14 ROYALS +257

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [7-4 +9.44u]
2022 - [422-449 +100.01u]

Sunday:

• 6/1.95 Blue Jays -308
• 4/5.68 Marlins +142
• 5/3.33 Rays -150
• 4/7.84 Tigers +196
• 6/2.26 Astros -265
• 3/2.78 MARLINS u7 -108
• 3/2.88 RAYS u7½ -104
• 3/2.78 MARINERS o9 -108
• 2/3.04 REDS +152

Best starters laying -200 or more since 2017 (Cole & Odorizzi go today)

​

and for grins, here's the worse laying -200 or more

​

Correction, not units but profit/loss it bet to win 100 every start​

randoms...

• CLE 16-10 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+9.33u +31.1% ROI)
• CHW 18-10 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+6.64u +16.6% ROI)
• SEA 16-10 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+5.18u +16.4% ROI)
• NYY 12-15 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +10.27u +35.8% ROI)
• PHI 12-15 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +6.8u +21.9% ROI)
• AZ 8-18 ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (FADE FOR +7.7u +18.8% ROI)
• WA 17-7 OVER TOT ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+9.15u +31.4% ROI)
• OAK 16-7 UNDER TOT ON SUNDAY L365 DAYS (+8.35u +30% ROI)

• Logan Webb 18-4 AT HOME (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+12.3u +35.2% ROI)
• Chris Flexen 12-9 ON ROAD (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+6.71u +31% ROI)
• Dylan Cease 16-9 ON ROAD (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+6.82u +20.7% ROI)
• Jose Berrios AT HOME 17-8 (TEAM) L730 DAYS (+6.02u +14.4% ROI)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 5-1​

7 Years+ ML - 60.2% +5.9% ROI ​

LAST RLF- 3-2​

7 Years+ RLF- 50.2% +3.8% ROI​

LAST UN - 0-1​

7 Years+ UN - 57.4% +10.3% ROI​

LAST OV - 3-2​

7 Years+ OV - 55.3% +6.2% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: TOR, NYY, TB, PHI, CHC, SF, AZ​

RLF: TOR, NYY, TB, PHI, SF​

UNDER: NYY​

OVER: CHC, TEX​

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4/6.56 Red Sox +164
• 3.45/3 Yankees u7½ -115
• 5/5.10 TWINS +102
• 3/2.88 GIANTS u7½ -104

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
2022 - [425-457 +76.62u]

Thursday:

• 3/2.11 Tigers -142 G1
• 5/7.25 Tigers +145 G2
• 3/3.15 Rangers +105

Recent form...last 20 games

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 5-1​

7 Years+ ML - 60.2% +5.9% ROI ​

LAST RLF- 3-2​

7 Years+ RLF- 50.2% +3.8% ROI​

LAST UN - 0-1​

7 Years+ UN - 57.4% +10.3% ROI​

LAST OV - 3-2​

7 Years+ OV - 55.3% +6.2% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: HOU, OAK​

RLF: HOU​

UNDER: NA​

OVER: NA​

 

[mrpickem]

Adding

• 3/2.61 Athletics u7½ -115 G1
• 3/3.00 Athletics u7 +100 G2

A.s & Tigs are two of the worse offenses in the bigs coming off the break. Both rank near the bottom in every major statistical category, and even with the total slanted low . DET 28-16 to under away, while OAK 23-15 under at home. OAK as home chalk 5-9 this year(3-11 on RL) and the under is 8-3-3

 

[mrpickem]

Add

5/3.97 ASTROS (HOU) GM-1 -126

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-2 +4.23]
2022 - [429-459 +80.85u]

Friday:

• 5/4.03 Phillies -124
• 5/7.00 Guardians +140
• 5/5.35 Athletics +107
• 4/6.48 PADRES +162
• 4/5.68 Angels +142
• 3/2.68 BREWERS u7½ -112
• 2/3.04 DODGERS -1½ +152

Pend: MIA, TB 1'


randoms...

• OAK: Sean Murphy swats three-run homer to sink Tigers
• OAK: Frankie Montas fans five in return vs Tigers
• HOU: Yordan Álvarez homers, plates three versus Yankees
• NYY: Aaron Judge slugs MLB-leading 34th homer Thursday
• NYM: DeGrom throws five innings, 60 pitches in sim game
• SF: Rosenthal is' several weeks away from joining Giants
• LA: Dodgers 'cautiously optimistic' Buehler returns
• LA: Graterol (shoulder) won't come off IL immediately
• LA: Heaney (shoulder) is making a rehab start on Thursday
• LA: May (elbow) will throw on Friday for Triple-A OKC

ON FRIDAY AT SITE(HOME/AWAY) L730 DAYS

SEA 18-8 +32.3% ROI​

CIN 16-8 +22.4% ​

SL 15-10 +20.8% ​

PHI 16-7 +20.7% ​

HOU 18-10 +17.1% ​

LAD 17-8 -2.6%​

TOR 9-13 -23.8% ​

LAA 7-18 -39.5%​

TEX 6-18 -46.9%​

CHC 5-16 -47.2%​

TEAM w/STARTER AT SITE(HOME/AWAY) L730 DAY EXCLUDING SEPT(MIN 10 STARTS)

Tyler Anderson 14-5 +38.8% ROI​

Kyle Gibson 16-8 +25.6% ​

Logan Webb 12-10 +22.4%​

Jose Urquidy 11-6 +20.8%​

Antonio Senzatela 3-15 -56.9%​

Cal Quantrill 2-12 -69.6%​

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 2-0​

7 Years+ ML - 60.2% +5.9% ROI ​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

7 Years+ RLF- 50.2% +3.9% ROI​

LAST UN - 0-0​

7 Years+ UN - 57.5% +10.4% ROI​

LAST OV - 0-0​

7 Years+ OV - 55.3% +6.1% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: MIL​

RLF: MIL​

UNDER: MIL​

OVER: NA​

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 3/2.40 Rays -125
• 2/2.90 Rays -1½ +145

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [6-3 +15.17]
2022 - [435-462 +96.02u]

Maybe starting another heater with 2 straight winning days off the break.

Saturday:

• 6/3.82 Phillies -157
• 5/6.60 Red Sox +132
• 3/7.05 ROCKIES +235
• 2/4.02 ORIOLES +201
• 4/3.74 ANGELS o8½ -107
• 3/2.94 Pirates -102
• 3/2.54 Rangers -118
• 3/2.68 PHILLIES u8 -112
• 3/3.03 TWINS -1½ +101
• 3/2.86 MARINERS u7 -105
• 3/1.96 Cardinals -153
• 3.18/2 Padres +1½ -159

Pend: CLE1, TB 1'

​

randoms...

• NYY: Judge's 8th multi-HR game of '22 powers Yanks past O's
• TOR: Blue Jays set a franchise record with 28 runs against Boston
• BOS: Red Sox break the dubious record by allowing the most runs ever in a game in their history (28)
• TOR: Tapia's bizarre inside-the-park slam a highlight in historic night
• NYY: King feared lost for the season with an elbow injury
• SEA: Rodriguez was scratched from Friday's lineup against the Astros with left wrist soreness
• ATL: Cano exited Friday's game against the Angels due to dizziness
• NYM: Mets get DH Vogelbach from Pirates for reliever
• CLE: Giménez homers, Guardians roll past White Sox in 8-2 romp
• LAA: Ohtani rocked in the 7th inning vs the Braves; gives up 6 runs in the loss

ON SATURDAY AT SITE(HOME/AWAY) L730 DAYS EXCLUDING SEPT

• PIT 15-7 +52.3% ROI
• DET 16-9 +44.2%
• SL 14-7 +33.2%
• SF 13-9 +26.8%
• ATL 14-5 +24.9%
• PHI 14-7 +22.4%
• LAD 14-7 -10.0%
• HOU 9-15 -31.4%
• AZ 6-15 -41.9%
• SD 5-14 -50.6%
• WA 4-17 -54.4%

TEAM w/STARTER AT SITE(HOME/AWAY) L730 DAY EXCLUDING SEPT(MIN 10 STARTS)

• Justin Verlander 7-2 +27.2% ROI
• Kyle Wright 9-3 +27.0%
• Blake Snell 8-15 -37.3%
• Mike Minor 6-16 -41.8%

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 2-0​

7 Years+ ML - 60.2% +5.9% ROI ​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

7 Years+ RLF- 50.2% +3.9% ROI​

LAST UN - 0-1​

7 Years+ UN - 57.4% +10.3% ROI​

LAST OV - 0-0​

7 Years+ OV - 55.3% +6.1% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: PHI, MIN, NYY, SD, LAD, ATL​

RLF: PHI, MIN, NYY, LAD, ATL​

UNDER: SEA, PHI, BAL​

OVER: KC, ATL​

​

 

[mrpickem]

adds...

• 3/3.00 GUARDIANS GM-1 +100
• 4/5.60 Rays -1½ +140

 

[AtlHawks]

Lookin good Mr.

 

[AtlHawks]

possibly a little toasty

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [8-5-1 +2.55u]
2022 - [443-467 +98.57u]

Sunday:

• 5/5.25 Nationals +105
• 4/6.40 TIGERS +160
• 5/3.38 Rays -148
• 4/4.76 CUBS +119
• 4/4.08 MARLINS -1½ +102
• 3/5.13 ROCKIES +171
• 4/4.08 DODGERS -1½ +102
• 4/3.92 BRAVES -1½ -102
• 4/3.96 ROYALS u9 -101
• 4/3.77 WHITE SOX u7½ -106
• 3/3.03 M'S u7 +101
• 3/2.73 CUBS o10 -110
• 3/2.75 PIRATES u7½ -109
• 3/3.15 JAYS o11 +105
• 3/2.75 A'S u7½ -109
• 2/3.32 O's +166

No shortage for action today with 16 plays (5 dogs, 7 tots, 1 fav, 3 RL)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 7-3​

5 Years ML - 60.1% +6.0% ROI ​

LAST RLF- 5-4​

5 Years RLF- 51.5% +3.3% ROI​

LAST UN - 1-0-1​

5 Years UN - 57.2% +9.9% ROI​

LAST OV - 2-1-1​

5 Years OV - 54.2% +4.1% ROI​

​

Today:​

ML: CHC, LAA, MIA, BAL, COL, TB, LAD​

RLF: MIA, TB, LAD​

UNDER: CHW, KC​

OVER: PHI, BOS​

randoms...

NYM 4-0 vs Joe Musgrove
NYY 4-0 vs Dean Kremer
CHW 4-10 vs Shane Bieber -26% ROI
CIN 3-8 vs Miles Mikolas -42.1%
MIL 2-8 vs Chad Kuhl -53.4%
SF 21-30 vs Kershaw but still +7.6% ROI alltime

ON SUNDAY AT SITE(HOME/AWAY) L730 DAYS EXCLUDING SEPT
SF 14-6 +39.6% ROI
SEA 15-6 +39.4%
MIN 12-6 +27.3%
SD 13-6 +24.7%
BAL 12-10 +23.4%
TB 13-8 +10.1%

MIL 8-11 -31.3%
SL 6-14 -37.7%
NYY 7-14 -39.3%
KC 6-14 -42.2%
TEX 5-15 -42.3%

TEAM w/STARTER AT SITE(HOME/AWAY) L730 DAY EXCLUDING SEPT(MIN 10 STARTS)
Drew Smyly 15-7 +44.3% ROI
Martin Perez 15-7 +42.3%
Ian Anderson 13-5 +27.5%
Shane Bieber 18-6 +23.0%

Clayton Kershaw 8-7 -23.5%
Mitch Keller 5-13 -37.6%
Tyler Mahle 8-17 -40.3%

 

[mrpickem]

Braves on the season when they avg 10% more runs per game than opponent are 12-3 80% and have won last 12! It applies today.

 

[mrpickem]

ONE MORE...

• 4/5.56 Guardians +139

 

[mrpickem]

Fading favorites of less than 110 (You have to have reduced juice to even get a favorite under 110) have a solid 15% ROI and only win 41.7%


Fading favorites of less than 120 still manage 6.2% ROI and win 47.2% of the time

However fading favorites from 110 to 119 only manages 3.2% ROI while winning 49%

3 such games go tomorrow, none today.

At the other end chalk between 210 and 310 returns 7% ROI when laying the wood as these favs win 75.8%. Slightly more profitable on RL returning 7.4% ROI

Two such games go today and you can see they have won 10 straight.


I kept it simple above but here are a couple of wrinkles:

• Big chalk (-211 to -309) better at home +11.2% ROI vs +5.9% on road and slightly better when the starter is off a loss at +8.9%
• Small favorites of -110 to -119 are better to fade when home at +6.7% when and 0.8% on road and +8.1% with starter off loss.
• The smallest favorites of less than 110 only slightly better fades at home 15.4% to 14.5% but they are 19.6% when the starter is off a loss.
• By day of the week when fading favs less than 110 ..MON 34.1%, SUN 20.9%, THUR 20.5%, TUE 18.3%, WED 15.7%, FRI 3.9%, SAT -2.6%
• Big chalk is big winner every day except Monday which is flat
• 

Of note: all these numbers are calculated for the last 7 years(since 2016, actually 6.74 seasons) and DO NOT include SEPT or OCT eliminating the fuckery and playoffs.

​