Hulu's NBA 2017/18 - The debacle continues

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#3DownNation
Hey all...back for another year of the daily NBA grind. Can't wait to be immersed in numbers and travel schedules until all hours of the night just to make a few bucks.

Between regular season and playoffs I managed to pull about 16 units or so out of this league last year. Hopefully I can keep the winning ways going.

I was lucky that I was able to quit my job and take a year off which really improved my ability to handicap. Additionally my girlfriend dumped my ass which, after the initial disappointment, improved my handicapping even more. Well the girlfriend came back and sadly I'm negotiating a new job which will likely begin in January so I'll have to find time to fit my handicapping in like the rest of the square world.

Anyway...best of luck to all my fellow gamblers this year. I look forward to bitching and moaning about the NBA with the rest of you.

.75* / .25* Denver +2.5 / ML -103 / +128

eta...listed bet incorrectly at first as 1 unit on the side. Corrected now.
 
Last edited:
Oh...and I'm still pissed at JR Smith for that nonsense 3 at the end of game 5. Dickhead.
 
.75* / .25* Denver +2.5 / ML -103 / +128

.75* / .25* New Orleans +2.5 / ML -110 / +118

Couple of others I liked but ruled them out. Rolling with these two tonight.
 
NBA Sides 0-2 -2.097*

Overall 0-2 -2.097*

Awful start. New Orleans looks awful. Not playing as a team and the frustration started to show in the second half. This team could turn into an absolute mess.

Tonight I'm trusting the raps to get off to their customary hot start. They beat the teams they should and may even beat a decent team or two early on to give the people of Toronto a tiny blip of hope in their otherwise grey, miserable lives. But they will lose when they face a good team who is interested. Chicago is not that team. They have been the raps achillles heel for the past while but they're too busy being their own nemesis at the moment. The Bulls players have to know that they are in for a very long and frustrating season.

1* Toronto -12.5 -106


Sort of like the Knicks tonight but would need a couple more points to bet them. I'll definitely will be watching the game in LA.
 
NBA Sides 1-3 -2.097*

Overall 1-3 -2.097*

Wow what a ridiculously dumb bet on the Lakers. Didn't think that one through properly and knew about 3 minutes in that there was no way it would win. I know full well the Lakers will be fade material for a while but somehow thought we might see a little first game magic before reality set in. Dumb. On to Friday...

1* LAL / PHX over 218.5 -105

Other plays on my radar...
WAS -5.5
BKN -1.5
MIN -4.5
 
1* Washington -6 -108
1* Philadelphia -2.5 -110

Others plays on the radar...
BKN -1.5
MIL +2
SAC +5.5
 
NBA Sides 2-5 -3.277*
NBA Totals 1-0 +1.00*

Overall 3-5 -2.277*

Can't believe the wiz fell apart so badly in the 4th last night. On to Saturday...

1* SAC / DEN under 214.5 -110
1* PHX / LAC under 217 -108
1* Oklahoma City -4.5 -110

Its hard to get ahead of the game right now with CFL, NFL and NCAAF taking up so much of my time. As time goes on, I'll start getting the better of these numbers.

Other leans on my radar...
SAN -9.5
MIL -3
NYK -2
GSW -8
 
NBA Sides 3-7 -4.467*
NBA Totals 2-1 +0.92*

Overall 5-8 -3.547*

Debacle indeed...

1* MEM / HOU under 213 -106
1* SAC / PHX under 206.5 -105

May be one or two more I like...we'll see
 
NBA Sides 3-8 -5.52*
NBA Totals 3-2 +0.87*

Overall 6-10 -4.67*

Cannot catch a break whatsoever.
 
Thanks em. Yeah not really enough data for my models just yet. About 3 weeks in I'll start pumping out the totals plays and thats usually my bread and butter in the NBA.

One play that looks good tonight...

1* LA Clippers -4.5 -112
 
NBA Sides 4-8 -4.52*
NBA Totals 3-2 +0.87*

Overall 7-10 -3.67*

First profitable night of the season.

1* Oklahoma City -13.5 +100
.75/.25 Dallas +3.5/ML -106/+146

One other play I like but waiting on news/line moves.
 
Wanted to wait this one out a little longer but I saw 4s disappearing across the board which means someone likely has the news I am looking for so I'm pulling the trigger now.

.75/.25 Miami +4/ML -110/+147
 
aaaaaand there it is...Waiters is playing.

Hitting 3 in some places. I swear sometimes its better just to watch the market than to look for news. If you have enough outs, one of 'em will be slow to move.
 
NBA Sides 6-9 -3.48*
NBA Totals 3-2 +0.87*

Overall 9-11 -2.61*

2nd profitable night in a row. Here we go.

This is the first model-generated play of the year. Of course I don't play these blindly as the model has hit at just over 51.9% over the decade or so I've been refining it. But I liked this already because of the spot and when we agree, good things happen.

.75/.25 Boston +4.5 / ML -111 / +154
 
NBA Sides 7-9 -2.345*
NBA Totals 3-2 +0.87*

Overall 10-11 -1.475*



.8/.2 Detroit +8/ML -105/+273
 
NBA Sides 8-9 -0.999*
NBA Totals 3-2 +0.87*

Overall 11-11 -0.129*

Almost back to break-even.

1* Charlotte -3.5 -111
 
aaaaand of course after I take under 209 it jumps to 211. Been on the wrong side of too many numbers so far this season.
 
NBA Sides 9-9 +.001*
NBA Totals 3-2-1 +0.87*

Overall 12-11-1 +0.871*

and it ends on 209. Better than 210 I suppose. Back on the plus side finally.
 
1* PHI / HOU under 216.5 -110

This was 218.5 when I started capping. Multiple phone calls and other distractions later and I end up with 216.5. Enormously frustrated with my inability to get the best number on just about every play thus far.

At any rate my models place this total between 205.5 and 213 which is a higher variance than I typically like to bet but that's only because its so early and the models lack data.
 
Wow...my main SP&S model has spit out one of the highest totals I've ever seen. 248.5 in the ORL/NOP game. Not that I'm rushing to bet the over mind you but I was shocked to see that number.
 
NBA Sides 10-10-1 +.75*
NBA Totals 3-3-1 -0.23*

Overall 13-13-1 +0.52*

Ho hum start to the season. Unders are cashing at an alarming rate and yet I am 2-3 on posted under bets. Ugh.

1/.25* Sacramento +5 / ML -105 / +174
 
NBA Sides 11-12-1 +0.08*
NBA Totals 4-3-1 +0.77*

Overall 15-15-2 +0.85*

Very small profit yesterday. If I keep up this torrid pace, I might be up a whole unit by Christmas.

Lots to like today. Time to get to work narrowing it down.
 
1* SAC / BOS under 197.5 -109
1* POR / UTH over 191.5 -102
1* DAL / LAC under 205.5 -103
 
NBA Sides 11-13-1 -1.04*
NBA Totals 5-5-1 -0.35**

Overall 16-18-2 -1.39*

The coinflip continues... For Friday...

1* CLE / WAS over 222 -107
1* CHI / ORL over 204.5 -107
1* BOS / OKC under 206.5 -110
1* San Antonio -4 -110
1* Utah -1.5 -110
 
NBA Sides 12-14-1 -1.14*
NBA Totals 8-7-1 +0.53*

Overall 20-21-2 -0.61*

Small profit on the night. Need to have a breakout day sooner or later.

1* MEM / LAC under 201.5 -110
1* NOP / CHI under 201.5 -110
 
Yup, that would be the starting point for me in Nawlins/Chicago game...

They will just keep lining these Bulls totals too high.

Then buy back on the over once it hits 180/185 or lower range.

EZ sleazy middle.
 
NBA Sides 12-14-1 -1.14*
NBA Totals 9-8-1 +0.43*

Overall 21-22-2 -0.71*

1* ATL / CLE under 220.5 -110
 
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