Hulu's CFL 2017

Thanks Sigo. Doin my best :shake:

0.75* / 0.25* Saskatchewan(?) +5.5 / ML -106 / +185

I missed the 6.5 available earlier on this game but the Esks are going through so much roster upheaval I had to wait until the picture became clearer. I've been scouring twitter, fan blogs and podcasts all week to try and understand as they have several new injuries as well as several players potentially eligible to return. I've really never seen any team have an injury-plagued year like this and still have a 7-1 record to boot. Its truly astonishing. But in the end, football fundamentals will win out and my 30 years of watching tells me that no team can continue this forever. Because of this, I think there is value on the green riders. Call it a contrarian play. Edmonton hasn't lost at home in some time, Sask hasn't won on the road in forever but reading between the lines this week, there seems to be some real enthusiasm amongst the riders that they have some momentum and this team is finally turning a corner and can be competitive in the west. Their fan base senses it too. Reportedly, they are clogging the prairie highways with their combines & harvesters heading to Edmonton where they may number half the crowd. I'm no Chris Jones fan but he can motivate and I think his boys have a chance to pull an upset here.
 
Looks like BC will have receivers Bryan Burnham and Nik Moore back tomorrow. That has to be a relief for the offense. Also, TJ Lee returns to the secondary after being out 4 games and Mic'hael Brooks will be back clogging up the middle of the defensive front.

The offensive line is still a MASH unit but beyond that, this is the healthiest the Leos have been in a few weeks.
 
Bottom line is this game can go either way...get closer or turn into a blowout. Edmonton is back on their heels and they are banged up as we know but Reiley and his receiving corps are too good not to come out gunning in the second half. Add in Kevin Glenn's career-long history of throwing interceptions at the wrong time (as he very nearly did on their final TD drive of the half) and I think a 19.5 point middle opp is too good to pass up.
 
Two pick sixes early in the third ended any comeback bid by the Eskies. I guess I underestimated the beating Reilly took in the first half. He looked really rattled by Sasks relentless pressure. And speaking of that, Sask is really impressing me with their ability to continually get pressure with a 3 and 4 man rush. When they did it against BCs porous line, it was one thing but Edmontons protection is substantially better and they still gave up hit after hit on Reilly.

Anyway, still rolling with BC +2 and TOR/CAL under 55 today as posted on the previous page. BOL to all.
 
Here I go again...

2* BC Lions 2H -2.5 -106

I wouldn't be surprised to see Trevor Harris benched at some point as he is obviously throwing in some pain.
 
Also think Wally benches Jennings if he doesn't show something in the first drive or two. And I wouldn't mind at all. Lulay, provided he is healthy is their best option right now.
 
Thanks Fondy. I'll be in your neighborhood in a couple of weeks.

BC almost stages one of the largest comebacks in history. But at least the 2H bet managed to steer me into a profit.

Still have the under 55 in cowtown tonight.

For fun...

0.5* Parlay Calgary ML / Mayweather -226
 
1* Calgary 2H -6 -107

Toronto's offense couldn't do shit in the first half. Rocky Ray was under relentless pressure all half. The only reason they're in it is their defense and the 115 yard pick-6 that represented a 14 point turn around. Now it looks like they've lost another DB in their already thin secondary and potentially DE Finley as well. I see Calgary pulling away in the 2H.
 
CFL Sides 10-9-1 +3.355*
CFL Totals 9-5 +5.20*
CFL 2H 10-5-1 +5.665*
Tease/Parlay 3-1 +1.655*

CFL Overall 32-20-2 +15.875*

Very nice week and a new season high in units. I'll take it.

Next week is a very tough card. There's only one value spot I like and its not terribly strong. We'll see what happens when the lines come out but I'll probably tread very lightly.
 
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See that bit in the post above about treading lightly this week? I take it back. 3 games have lines that are way off IMO. This is truly the week where we see who has the better lines, me or the market.

Labour day weekend is the real start of the CFL season where everything heats up and gets serious as playoffs approach. Its also a weekend that tends to have a lot of fuckery and underdogs rising up to compete with superior foes. And we have some cushy dog lines this week.

1.5* Winnipeg +3 -107
This game pits arguably the 2 hottest teams in the league against one another. Winnipeg has won 5 straight and coach O'Shea has that offense rolling while Sask blown out 2 straight opponents on the strength of a suddenly stifling pass rush. Sask has home field but who is the hotter team here? Winnipeg is mostly a known quantity as we have watched them saw through 5 straight opponents now in convincing fashion with sound, fundamental football on both sides. Sask, on the other hand had only suddenly looked like world beaters. Lets take a closer look as their 2 blowout wins. 2 weeks ago against BC at home, Sask used 3 and 4 man rushes to get constant pressure on Jonathan Jennings and force him into mistake after mistake. But BCs offensive line might be the worst in the league so the pressure was a given. What wasn't a given was how Jennings looked absolutely awful coming of his shoulder injury. He threw 3 picks in the first 20 minutes (of 4 total) setting up Sask in short field time and time again. Jennings problems are a story for another day but my take on that game was that it had more to do with his exceptionally poor performance (see my posts from Aug 13) than with Sask's play. Then the Riders had a bye before heading to Edmonton to play a very depleted Eskimos team. Once again they got pressure time and time again against Reilly and forced mistake after mistake. While the Esks O Line is better than BC by a long stretch, Edmonton's offense had bigger problems. Reilly has been forced to cope with a game of musical chairs as receivers get hurt and others come back. It can be hard to run an offense when you can't even practice with the same guys for more than a week at a time. Full credit to sask, they played a great defensive game but against a severely depleted team. So does Sask get the same kind of mayhem-causing pressure on Matt Nichols this week? I don't think so and here's why... 1. Winnipeg has a solid OL that can hold up 2. Nichols makes very few mistakes and has thrown the fewest interceptions of any starting QB in the league. 3. The Bombers have a demolition-man running back in Andrew Harris that can help negate sasks pass rush 4. Winnipeg plays a lot of no huddle which will negate Sasks DL depth and tire them out

Basically I see this game as a pk and if you're giving me +3 in a pk game, I'll take it any day of the week.
 
1.5* Edmonton +11 -106
I hesitate to make this bet given how I just trashed Edmonton in my previous post. Yes the Eskies roster is a mess but this is waaaaay to many points for them to be giving up in a labour day game. There are a number of players who may potentially return this week to shore up the roster and we'll have to wait and see exactly what it looks like as the week unfolds but I wanted to get on this now as I don't see how this line stays here. I made it +6.
Calgary has continued to win and sits in first place but not looked terribly impressive the past 2 weeks. They went to BC, where Jon Jennings continued to struggle for a half before somewhat finding his groove and won in less-than-convincing fashion 21-17 as 4.5pt favs. It took them until early in the 4th quarter to score a major against a BC defense missing Mi'chael Brooks and Anthony Gaitor. Then this past weekend Calgary came home and beat Toronto but again, looked a bit feeble. Toronto didn't manage a single offensive point in that game and yet were still only down 9-7 at the half. Against a team that had virtually no offense, Calgary should have been able to parlay that into great field position and a convincing win but instead they only managed 2 touchdown drives and 23 points. BLM's arm is clearly bothering him and his long balls look off.
Make no mistake, I think Calgary wins this game, but Edmonton getting more points there than Toronto did last week? Thats just nuts.
 
1.5* Hamilton +5.5 -110
The cats have looked horrendous all year, no doubt about it. But the thing you have to understand about my hometown is that labour day is as much a cultural event as it is a football game. Hamilton is a steel town, full of mills and heavy industrial jobs and labour day is their day. Union parades and the whole bit. Traditionally the labour day Hamilton vs Toronto matchup has been a part of all that. There is a cohort of 'fans' there that will only attend this one game all year. They don't care what comes before or after...they buy a ticket to one game a year and expect to see their team beat the hated Argos. So the house will be packed for probably the only time this season. And Hamilton just hates Toronto...period. Fans sitting behind the Argo bench hurl bile and vitriol toward the team non-stop for 3 hours. I know, I used to be one of them and almost feel mildly bad for some of the shit I said. On the other hand, seeing Argo players lose their shit, make on field mistakes, throw their helmets at the fans etc over the years also gave me a smug sense of self satisfaction at our ability to get under their skin. Weird isn't it?

But what really stops this from being just any other game for the cats is the huge changes that have happened over their bye week. HC Kent Austin has stepped down (I believe someone predicted that several pages ago) and been replaced by June Jones who has been with the team for a few weeks. Jones has been steadily increasing his role as he gets to know the organization and is now ready to take over sideline duties. In a bit of a surprise move, Jones has not named a starter for labour day so it could be either Collaros or Masoli or a bit of both. Either way, I think he can bring some offensive direction to a team that has some talent but just hasn't been able to take advantage of it. I really have liked what he has had to say about offensive changes he plans to bring. He has also brought in former Baylor coach Art Briles to assist which has the cats looking like an NCAA team these days. And don't forget thay already replaced their DC a few weeks back. I think cumulatively, this represents a fresh start for this team that had been through the ringer. The people I talk to indicate there is a fresh sense of purpose around this team and while they're not any threat to win the grey cup this season, there are a number of players who are suddenly playing for their jobs in the second half.
The Argos on the other hand have a decent offense but Ricky Ray is a statue in the pocket and easily disrupted by pressure. The one thing the cats still have is a decent defensive front and LB corps when healthy. I think they could keep Ray and his offense in check. Defensively, the Argos are looking a little thin after losing yet another DB in Qudarius Ford last week. They have some holes to fill. Early MOP candidate Victor Butler (who still leads the league in sacks despite missing several games) could be back on their DL but that is not known yet.

Bottom line is I think the cats can rise up in their one important game left this season. 5.5 points is too much to be giving them. I made this pk and I will likely add on the ML when available.
 
Ok one more...

1* WPG / SSK under 61.5 -107
I made this total 58.5. The last time these 2 teams played, they combined for 74 points in regulation. Winnipeg is capable of scoring 30 or more in every game and Sask has scored a combined 95 points in their past 2. This game has all the makings of a classic prairie shootout. So why am I going under? Because I like contrarian plays.

This game is hugely important for both teams as the west division has become so tight. So I think it plays out a bit like a playoff game with teams playing just a bit on the conservative side. Both have great defenses. But again, if you look at Sasks last 2 games, a lot of their scoring came from short fields provided by multiple turnovers each time. As I said a few posts up, I don't see that happening against Nichols and the Bombers. O'Shea has them playing sound football. And I think Bomber DBs Randle and Alexander (the best tandem in the league possibly) should be able to hold the Riders plethora of quality receivers in check.
 
Uh oh, just catching up on some reading and the Art Briles hiring is causing a major shit storm in Hamilton. I had temporarily forgotten the whole Baylor rape fiasco. This is a distraction the team does not need right now.
 
Glad you like the write-ups Sigo. I enjoy going back through the season and reading my own notes. Even now at the halfway point, when we know so much more about every team, I can go back to page one and wonder what the hell I was thinking. lol

So Briles is out in Hamilton after the media nearly shit themselves. I can't say I'm surprised or even disappointed as I'm not sure Briles deserves to be coaching anywhere. But perhaps the worst outcome of his extraordinarily short tenure is that it has caught the attention of the social media SJW lynch mob who are now spamming virtually every article with nonsense. Just ask Rod Petersen who has a popular CFL blog. He simply declined to comment on the situation when asked and for that has been subject to a tidal wave of hate mail calling him 'rape enabler' and the like. Thankfully the attention span of your average social media user is shorter than my dick so they'll find their new 'outrage of the moment' and move on soon enough.
 
No 2H play in this game but just want to publicly state that Al Bradbury and crew are likely the worst officiating crew ever to set foot on a football field at any level about high school. Game in and game out they are absolutely random, completely inconsistent and 100% incompetent. I have never seen such utter failure in 30 years of watching football.

How can anyone bet a game with these pathetic fools shitting random flags all over the field?
 
Well a prairie shootout it is. I see no evidence that either team will start stopping the other anytime soon.

1* WPG / SSK 2H over 28.5 -112
 
Also gonna take a stab with Winnipeg. They've been staging 2H heroics all season and while I'm not sure they'll get the win, I would think they can draw at least a little closer than this. Also, Sask might have lost their RB for the game. That didn't look good.

1* Winnipeg 2H -0.5 -107
 
Capped that game entirely wrong yesterday. From beginning to end.

Anyway, sprinkling a little on the cats ML as promised.

0.5* Hamilton ML +167
 
CFL Sides 11-11-1 +2.495*
CFL Totals 9-6 +4.13*
CFL 2H 12-7-1 +6.045*
Tease/Parlay 3-1 +1.655*

CFL Overall 35-25-2 +14.335*

Rough week..3-5 and lost just over 1.5 units. But...

THE HAMILTON TIGER-CATS WON!!

Must've been one of the longest games in history with that 2hr+ lightning delay but the cats gutted out a win. I was at the game and made good use of the delay by drinking heavily. I was one of those 500 or so people who was there til the end, soaked to the bone. But at least I can say I was there. :)
 
2* Winnipeg -1.5 -107
1* SSK / WPG under 61.5 -110

Sask made a fool of me on Sunday. Sometimes momentum is more important than talent. Although they didn't manage the soul-crushing kind of pressure against the Bombers that they had in their 2 previous wins, they did enough to force the offense into mistakes early and then it just avalanched from there. And once again, their defence provided Kevin Glenn with short fields to work with, starting 2 drives inside the 'peg 15. But I still don't see how any team can keep up this kind of pace for long. You can't rely on starting drives in the redzone multiple times a game. Winnipeg is still the better team here and they showed me enough in the second half to believe that they will clean up the mistakes and take better care of the football at home. And lets not forget, before 2 weeks ago at Edmonton, Sask hadn't won a road game against a west div opponent since like 2014.

Under is basically the same reasoning as last week except to add that again, I don't expect Kevin Glenn to have red zone starting field position too much in winterpeg.

Don't really see anything else I like right now. Ottawa should have value against a cats team fat and happy off their first win but the line is untouchable IMO. BC should have value now that Lulay is starting but that's also a big line and Montreals defence is good enough to keep them in any game. Also one other total I kind of like but I'm going to watch line movement and roster info before I lock it in.
 
1.5* BC Lions -7.5 -106

I've been all over the leos this year with mixed results, 5-4 on sides with them. Losers of 3 straight, they are coming off a bye to play the Als at home. The big change this week is Travis Lulay getting the start. I was mistaken a few weeks back to think that Jon Jennings coming back from his shoulder injury was the cure for the poor offensive line play that had plagued BC. But in retrospect, even though Jennings is the more mobile QB, he just hangs on to the ball too long and ends up in trouble always looking for the big play. I think watching Lulay excel for 4 games may have rattled him and he came back trying to do too much. Whatever the case, Lulay is clearly the better option here. He makes better, faster decisions with the football and takes what the defense gives. Don't forget this guy was league MVP a few years ago before repeated injuries sidelined him.
Further, I listened to a couple of interviews with coach Brillo about what they worked on through the bye. He emphasized the re-tooling of the offensive line, where they will now start an extra import at the expense of a receiver (Nick Moore likely), and reducing the large number of long pass plays the secondary gives up. I liked what I heard.

Montreal is hard to gauge. At times I thought they could potentially win the east this year but as the season has wore on, its clear that their offense is not working and their stellar defense, which is loaded with veteran talent, has become tired and beat up. Perhaps the biggest failing of this offense is turning last years east div MVP Ernest Jackson into a forgotten man. Also, they keep giving the stone-handed Sam Giguere starts. I hate to suggest that politics plays a part in this but its hard to explain otherwise. They are toying with the offensive line to give Durant more time but I don't see how they find much improvement there. They signed Xavier Fulton who wasn't the solution in either Sask or Hamilton and he won't be here either. Defensively, they have added yet another injury, rookie MLB Anthony Sarao, who was already replacing Dominique Tovell. Now they have to do some serious juggling to shore up that group. CB Jonathan Mincy is still a stud and ROY in my opinion but they just have too many holes to fill back there.

Finally, Montreal to BC is one of the toughest road trips in the league. The Als have only won there twice in the past 14 seasons. They have been the cure to whatever ails the Lions for some time and I expect it to continue.

I will likely be on this game in some other way also...likely parlayed with something when MLs are available. I also really like the over but it would require the Als to score about 17 points which is not assured in any way. Still thinking about that.

eta...upping this to 1.5* The more I think about it, The Als will really have a tough time competing here.
 
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A couple of further notes on the WInnipeg bet in the banjo bowl Friday.

This rivalry is really heating up after video emerged of Bomber fans trying to rip off the head of Sask mascot Gainer the gopher. I have nothing but respect for Gainer. Killing gophers is basically the provincial sport in sask. Farmers shoot them, gas them and blow them up weekly and this guy has the balls to walk around in a gopher suit in front of 30000 drunk farmers every week.

iur




Only slightly more importantly, the Bombers media people have been working overtime this week creating a story around Sasks repeated fake injuries last game. Now this happens all the time in football and its a good way for a team like Sask with good DL depth to neuter a no-huddle offense. Having said that, its rarely done so blatantly. Sask linemen were repeatedly seen taking knees while smiling and and in one instance even sticking out a tongue. The lapdog sports media, always hungry to fill airtime and column inches has eaten up the Bombers press releases like they were free pizza and turned it into a story. This morning I am hearing a rumor that the league either has or will be warning sask about this practice. Its not illegal but its a bad look to have players laughing as they pretend to be hurt so its entirely plausible that the league would have something to say. Maybe Chris Jones tones it down this week or maybe he just has his players wipe the stupid grins off their faces while doing it.
 
1* Parlay BC / OTT / New England ML -113

1* MTL / BC over 49.5 -110

Upon first glance, Montreal and BC are 2 of the leagues best under teams combining to go 14/5 u/o so far this season. But a closer look at BC reveals something interesting...with Jennings starting they are 5/0 u/o and with Lulay they are 1/3 u/o. It just reflects how much better their offense is functioning with Lulay. The down side of this bet is that I need to count on Montreal to score 17 which might be a tall order. Hence only a single unit.

That should be it for this week until in game. BOL to all this week.
 
Ok so Brady, Belichick and co continue to fuck me no matter how I bet them. But it was worth it to see poor Tom almost cry. Since that killed both my BC/OTT/NE parlay as well as my NE/HOU parlay, I'm combining the remainders into another that will help me recoup some of that. I still really don't see any of these three losing this week. Of course I didn't see New England losing either.

1* Parlay BC / OTT / HOU ML +120
 
Oh FFS Lulay injured on the 2nd play from scrimmage. Doesn't look good. I am cursed with this team.
 
Well Jennings comes off after sucking for his past 3 starts and looks like the second coming of...well...Travis Lulay. What a bizarre dance these two have had in the past 3 years. Star crossed quarterbacks, Shakespeare might have said.
 
Glad to hear it Sigo.

Nailed tonights game. Its always nice to win a couple of bets but even sweeter when the game plays out pretty much exactly as you capped it. Doesn't happen often enough.
 
CFL Sides 13-11-1 +5.995*
CFL Totals 10-7 +4.03*
CFL 2H 12-7-1 +6.045*
Tease/Parlay 3-3 -0.465*

CFL Overall 38-28-2 +15.605*

Decent week if I didn't shoot myself in the foot with those 2 parlays. Also regret not taking the under in Edmonton when it went to 57. Not as confident lately with my totals or else I would have hit it.

Anyway, made back what I lost last week and within a unit of my season high so onward and upward.
 
1* EDM / TOR over 51.5 -107

This is a bit risky as Toronto is a pretty solid under team but I a man taking a shot mostly based on edmontons secondary weakness. Prior to last game they lost DB massen to a torn Achilles in the warmup and then lost DB Peters in game. They have signed veteran DB AJ Jefferson who has been cut by both Ottawa and Sask this season but beyond him they may have to start at least one or maybe 2 Nationals in the secondary. Ricky Ray and Co should be able to feast on that.
This has upside for their offense as well because they may be able to start an extra international at receiver where they are stacked. They should feast on the Argos patchwork secondary.
I am hopeful this all adds up to some extra scoring.

There are a couple other plays I'm eyeing this week but it's a tricky week due to 3 teams having questionable QB situations. This is also traditionally a tough stretch in the CFL as recent NFL cuts come back to the league and create some roster upheaval.
 
1.5* SSK / HAM under 56/55.5 -107 (1* u56 / 0.5* u55.5, both at -107)
1* Hamilton +5 -107

Thoughts later when I don't have to type on a cellphone.

ahhh...a keyboard. I hate touchscreens. Added more on the total and added Hamilton as a side.

You always knew the cats could put together a win or two this season if the stars aligned with an opponent in a flat spot, some offensive creativity, and more than a few lucky breaks. All that came together two weeks ago when they did just enough, and I mean just enough to beat the Argos at home on labour day. Their winning TD drive required 3 command centre reviews all going their way including a PI call to give them 1st and goal on the 1. Normally reliable Argos kicker Hijrallahu(?) then missed a 36 yarder on the final play to seal it. Impressive it wasn't.

Then next week the cats actually played a stellar half of football against the Redblacks (who are known to not show up for a half here and there) but probably would've lost had they not knocked out starting QB Trevor Harris early in the second half. Either way though, the previously hapless cats have reeled off 2 straight wins and unbelievably put themselves back in the east playoff conversation. They still have 2 games left against crumbling Montreal and a home tie-breaker game against Toronto. They could conceivably pass both and end up in second place.

So I think its fair to look at the last two games as a fresh start for this team. Prior to labour day, their games average 57.2 pts but in the last 2 we've seen 46 and 48 and I think this is more indicative of what we will see going forward under HC June Jones and DC Philip Lolly.

Speaking of Lolly, I love how he has the defense playing. They are more aggressive at every level and playing with a level of confidence that I had not seen this season. They lost LB Dominique Ellis which is too bad as he had really locked down the nickel LB spot for them. On the D-Line, Justin Capicotti returns from injury which will really help a line depleted in national talent. Additionally, I've always said offense helps defense. Now that Masoli and co can usually manufacture at least a first down or two on most drives, leaves the defense more rested and with better field position to defend.

On the other side of the ball, we pretty much know what Sask is all about. But I have to take back some of my critisisms of Kevin Glenn as he is playing the best ball of his career right now. But just like Dalton gonna Dalton...Glenn gonna Glenn. I have seen it for too many years and make no mistake, he will still be good for ill-timed interceptions here and there. This week he is a game time decision after leaving last game with an injured throwing hand that he smashed on a defenders helmet. Word as of this morning is that he has not thrown a pass at practice since. If he can't start, the Riders have former South Alabama QB Brandon Bridge who has looked capable in short yardage situations and clean-up duty this year but has not started a game in his career. So we either have int-prone Glenn with a bad throwing hand or a rookie with his first start. Yum! Also, Sask is without running back Cameron Marshall again this week and his backup Kenan LaFrance is a step down. Receiver/Kick Returner Nic Demski is also still out.

Defensively the Riders have big news with the return of two players freshly cut NFL training camps. DB Jeff Knox Jr was a stud with them last year and will be inserted straight into the lineup. He will immediately help shore up their secondary which is the only weak point of their defence. They also brought back DB/LB Otha Foster who led them in tackles a year ago. Not sure if he will start but he is on the active roster and will add depth at the very least.

I think we see a 27-24 type game here. I made the total 52.5 and the line Sask -3.5.
 
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1* OTT / MTL over 48 -107

Thoughts in the morning.

With their starter hurt, Drew Tate will be getting the start for the RBs this week. He came off the bench to play a short half against Hamilton and looked rusty but impressive and that's a tough spot to find yourself in...especially when trailing. He finished 8/13 for 144 yards and a TD.

Tate is an 8 year veteran who at one time was considered the heir apparent in Calgary but it never materialized for him. Nevertheless I remember him being able to sling the ball and with Harris about to be out for 2-6 weeks with a shoulder separation, I spent some time researching Tate's previous starts. (I really wish sportsdatabase would add a CFL database, would make my life sooo much easier)

What I found confirmed what I remembered, this guy can sling. In 15 games where he started and/or played significant time, he was 9-6 to the over and only failed to hit 30 pts 6/15 times. Granted, that was with the high flying Calgary offense but Ottawa has its own share of capable offensive stars. Also, I am hopint Tate can play a little less conservative than Harris has. In a couple of brief interviews I saw yesterday, Tate appears to be jacked to be getting a chance to start in a meaningful game again. I think he performs.

But with any over, it takes two to tango and Montreal is an absolute dumpster fire at the moment. HC/OC Jacques 'le coq' Chapdelaine and DC Noel Thorpe were fired on Tuesday. Now Chapdelaine was no surprise as the offense was absolutely anemic and there was increasing friction between him, GM Kavis Reed and QB Darian Durant. Reed will be taking over as interim HC and I really hope that they take the shackles off Durant and the offense. I actually think this could be a good thing for him.

What was a surprise was Thorpe being fired as he is a very respected DC wherever he has been. He was also reportedly very popular with his players and I wonder how they respond the his departure.

By the numbers I would put this total at 49.5 but given the factors I have laid out above (which don't make it into any model), my gut says 52.5 is more appropriate.
 
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Thanks. The cats had 1st and goal on the 1 with 5 secs to go and they couldn't convert. If they had then hit the 2pt convert to tie it though, I would've lost the total. One of those weird finishes that you don't know what to cheer for.
 
1* Montreal 2H -3 -110

Drew Willy replaces Darian Durant which is a small upgrade but more importantly Ryan Lindley is in to see his first significant action. Advantage Als.
 
CFL Sides 13-12-1 +4.925*
CFL Totals 12-8 +5.46*
CFL 2H 12-8-1 +4.945*
Tease/Parlay 3-3 -0.465*

CFL Overall 40-31-2 +14.865*

That bad 2H play on Montreal took me from guaranteed profit into a loss on the week. I really should have played the under as it was based mostly on Ottawa losing their QB in the first half. Oh well. Back to the drawing board.
 
2* Winnipeg -6 -107

Tight lines on the 3 games released so far. This is the only play I like.

I made this line -8.5 for one reason: Ryan Lindley. I will always fade a rookie QB starting his first CFL game, especially on the road on a short week. I don't care that he has previous NFL experience. I don't care that he started a playoff game for the Cards. I don't care that he's been Ottawa's short yardage QB all year. The 3-down game is a totally different beast for quarterbacks having to read defenses with 12 men and 9 yards of extra lateral space. Here you can't rely almost solely on a running game eating clock or a stifling defense to get you through a game. You need offense to survive and I will gladly pay to watch Lindley keep this within a TD, especially against a ball-hawking, Mike O'Shea coached team off a bye week.
 
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