Hulu's CFL 2017

I mean how in the name of everything is this DPI?? The defender cuts in front and gets his hands on the ball with almost no contact on the receiver whatsoever. And this is a replay official calling it. Dude should be fired immediately because he obviously knows nothing about football.

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CFL Sides 5-4-1 +3.215*
CFL Totals 5-4 +1.82*
CFL 2H 6-2 +4.375*
Tease/Parlay 1-1 +0.00*

CFL Overall 17-11-1 +9.41*

Rough week. Only lost a little over a unit but it feels like more because of how some of those games transpired. BC had the chance to win if it weren't for horifically one-sided officiating. Toronto's second half was setting up perfectly until Johnny Sears Jr inexplicably decided to stand and watch a player get up and make a first down instead of simply laying a hand on him. Utterly frustrating. OTOH, the cats bet was just a plain ol misread. Also I think the over in sask was a solid play and came through as expected.

On to week 7...chalky chalky chalky

1.5* Calgary -4 -110
According to my power rankings, this game would be -6 on a neutral field. And since this is Toronto on a Thursday night, where there will be zero fan support, there is very little home field advantage (other than that the players get to sleep in their own beds before the game). Calgary finally looks like Calgary and while I don't want to get too excited about them beating up sask and the hapless cats, to me, they finally look healthy and on the mission they should be on this year after losing the GC in OT. Both teams on a short week but considering the stamps only needed their starters for a half to dispatch the pathetic cats, they should be in good shape here, even with travel. Toronto's defense which has been their hallmark throughout the first part of the season has been weakened by the injuries to the front. They didn't get the kind of pressure against Kevin Glenn last week and sask doesn't exactly have a stellar O-line. I'm seeing a 30-17 kind of game here.

1.5* Ottawa -3 -106
Missed the 2.5 on open but was willing to take it up to 3.5. Ottawa had a horrid schedule to start the season but has finally come though it and had a bye week to correct some problems. I really think this team is still much better than its record. Winnipeg OTOH is pretty mediocre. Their offense is average but the defense is looking pretty weak. They are coming off that miracle victory with 2 TDs in the last 1:40 but even that was official-aided and shouldn't have happened. I think the RBs are the better team, at home, with more time to prepare and a sense that they have come through the rough patch and are still within sight of the division lead.

1.5* BC Lions -5 -107
I made this line -6.5 and I think BC will be motivated to get a win here against the only really poor team in the West. The Lions have to feel like they got absolutely jobbed by the officials in Edmonton and will be eager to keep pace in the West with Calgary and Edmonton still rolling. Lulay and co should feast on Sasks seconadry. BCs secondary is a concern too but in Wally I trust.
 
Thanks Sigo.

I'm really shocked by the line move in Ottawa. I thought it would move to 3.5 or 4 and stay there, instead I wake up to a pick'em this morning. I can't find any specific news that would create a move like this so I am trusting my judgement and adding on Ottawa. I may get burned here but I think they are clearly the right side here.

1.5* Ottawa pk -107
 
I like all your sides but wonder what you made Edomonton because I find Hamilton highly appealing (All games not capped thorough so grain of salt).
 
Its tough to set a line on that game after what happened last week. Its not every day you lose 60-1. Worst beatdown since 1956. I watched every snap of that game (albeit in the fetal position) and it really was as horrid as the score made it sound. The cats failed in every phase of the game except perhaps punting.

Having said that, the cats have nowhere to go but up from here. You could look at last week like an addict hitting rock bottom...this is where the healing begins. Judging by the skirmish in practice this week, the team is wounded and embarrassed. As a capper I like a wounded animal.

Going strictly by my power rankings combined with my HFA rankings, Hamilton would be +11.5. So from that there may be some value on the cats. Situationally, its a mixed bag with a lot of questions...

  • Cats on a 6 day turn around but stayed and practiced in Calgary. EDM on 7 days at home.
  • Cats had their only legit DB Kaneh back for one game and lost him again. Secondary is still a mess. Can Reilly pick them apart all game like he did in the final drive when they played in Hamilton?
  • Cats showed vs Calgary they could use Gable in an effective run and short passing game to net first downs. But after the first drive they abandoned it as they typically do. WHY?? Gable looked like a bettering ram after being benched for 2 games. This is the formula for neutering the esks pass rush but will the coaching staff brighten up and use it?? If they don't, the esks pass rush will be in Collaros' face all night.
  • Cats and especially Coleman were able to get consistent pressure on Reilly last game which was the difference in the first 3 quarters. Can they manage that again? Because if its up to their DBs to cover for long, its over early.

So I guess the tl;dr version is, yes the value is with Hamilton but they just looked so utterly lost and awful last week its hard to back them. One of the hardest things in successful gambling is being able to throw good money after bad and go back to a team after they burned you. But I think its cats or no bet in this game.

One final point...both 3downnation and cfl.ca power rankings have this as a #1 vs #9 and judging by fan comments I read, I think that's the way most people view it. In reality, the real 1vs9 matchup was last week. So I have a feeling this may even go even higher. Might be able to nab a 14.5 or even 15 at some point.
 
Another knock against Edmonton...they lost their Kicker Sean Whyte last week to hip soreness. As insurance they have signed veteran Hugh O'Neill. It still remains to be seen if Whyte will have place kicking duties but O'Neill will almost certainly handle kickoffs. I'm not sure if this affects anything or not really.
 
Wow serious buyback on Ottawa...2 hours after I bet them at pk, they are back up to 2 or 2.5 at most shops.
 
Also I forgot about 2 Edmonton injuries...RB Travon Van and the long snapper Ryan King. That may create some ratio issues for them with Ryan having NI status.

Unless Edmonton signs a RB, they will be going with ancient Calvin McCarty who is serviceable but not going to outrun anyone.

And Odell Willis is the backup long snapper but I can't believe he takes many reps being a starting defender. So unless they have another long snapper up their sleeve, this could provide some interesting moments.

So many questions here.
 
Hot off the wire...Dressler OUT for the Peg tomorrow night. This is a nice bonus.

Also, Toronto shuffling their secondary ahead of tonights game. Johnny Sears is put on the injured list. Methinks this has more to do with his brain-cramp-for-the-ages last week than any injury. Problem is, if you are already starting a scrub like Sears, I can't imagine they have much behind him. Qudarius Ford who has seen a handful of plays all season will be on the active roster to replace him.
 
Only one total I'm liking this week. I made this one 57 and then found out that Dressler is out for the Bumblers while LB Mo Leggat is back for this game. That tips the scales for a small bet from me.

1* WPG / OTT under 58.5 -112
 
Yeah Montreal really woke them up a few weeks ago. Messam too. Guy has been a wrecking ball the last 3 weeks after looking tentative early on.
 
I was startled to see the cats fall to +9.5 or 10. Looks like Esks K Whyte is definitely out, leaving all P/K duties to Hugh O'Neill. They also moved OL Figeroa, DB Colquhoun and another receiver Duke Williams to the DL. This is almost going to look like a preseason squad for the Esks. I really wish now I had got down on the +14 when I had the chance.
 
Think it has to do with an already depleted Edmonton team moving even more players to IR, including a starting lineman, receiver and DB.

Early in the week it looked like Sean Whyte may be able to go with Hugh O'Neill taking over punting and kickoff duties but now Whyte is on IR as well to O'Neill will take over all. He is more of a punter and is <75% on FGs lifetime and almost certainly has less range.

I am wondering if this will lead to the Esks going for it more on 3rd down in the cats half rather than attempt long field goals. They may also opt for 2pt converts over kicks. All of which has me mulling the over. Problem is the cats anemic offense.
 
Hate to do this with 3 units already on one team but after watching a half, I like the RBs still.

1* Ottawa 2H -4 +101

Ottawa earned every one of their points in the first half while the Bombers had a defensive score and a blown coverage long ball touchdown. I still believe Harris and co get the win here
 
Made a dog's breakfast out of last week. Just misplayed the hell out of it. Will update record later as I'm traveling right now but I did get down on one early line.

1.5* Ottawa +2.5 -107

Yeah yeah I know...Ottawa.
 
They aren't very clutch. Starting to wonder if it is mental weakness, bad coaching, conditioning or just short term randomness.
 
Yeah after last week I think I am overdue for a reassessment on Ottawa because they keep choking, even at home. I wanted to believe it was random happenstance but watching it game after game, there must be something more to it. Championship hangover? Perhaps the hunger just isn't there.

But once again the schedule put them in a value spot at home to the most overrated team in the league. The Esks are depleted by injuries (18 starters on the DL) but still undefeated by virtue of their squeaker over the hapless cats. Ottawa played the Esks to the final play a few weeks ago in Edmonton and since then the esks have lost so many starters its barely even the same team. Its hard to ignore that kind of value.
 
CFL Sides 7-6-1 +3.02*
CFL Totals 5-5 +0.70*
CFL 2H 6-3-1 +3.375*
Tease/Parlay 1-1 +0.00*

CFL Overall 19-15-2 +7.095*

Awful week mostly due to the RBs. I misplayed that horribly. I should have gotten off the -3 later when the opportunity arose instead of riding it out with 3 units. And the 2H bet had all the fundamentals I look for but Ottawa just seems to choke week after week. Having said that, I am going back to the again for the reasons stated above. Value is value.

Also adding...

1.5* BC Lions -1 -112
Last week was total domination and while I don't see that happening again in Regina, its not hard to see that BC is indeed the better team here. Better in almost every facet of the game and trying to keep pace with the Alberta powerhouses because Wally knows his chances of getting to the cup from a third place finish are slim. I don't think its asking to much for them to get a win in Regina. Regina has the most overrated HFA by the public IMO. I made this line -3.5.
 
Hulu said:
Yeah after last week I think I am overdue for a reassessment on Ottawa because they keep choking, even at home. I wanted to believe it was random happenstance but watching it game after game, there must be something more to it. Championship hangover? Perhaps the hunger just isn't there.

But once again the schedule put them in a value spot at home to the most overrated team in the league. The Esks are depleted by injuries (18 starters on the DL) but still undefeated by virtue of their squeaker over the hapless cats. Ottawa played the Esks to the final play a few weeks ago in Edmonton and since then the esks have lost so many starters its barely even the same team. Its hard to ignore that kind of value.
Click to expand...


Very well thought out. I agree with you.
 
Line has almost completely flipped. Seeing Ottawa -2 now. Must be more injury news for the Esks I would think.

I need to find out how to get transaction info when the media gets it because they are able to report on things like this 24 hours before the CFL transaction wire is updated. I want to find out how to get this info the same time the media does.

Still waiting on a line in Montreal. I have 2 potential plays I'm looking at there although I would've preferred if Ricky Ray was playing. He has been ruled out as of today.
 
With apologies to hugh613...fuck Ottawa. They looked absolutely flat and lifeless last night. They allowed a seriously depleted Edmonton team who came within a play of losing to the cats last week, to push them around all game. The story is familiar, Ottawa looked decent in the 1H, stormed out to take the lead in the 3rd and then utterly collapsed in the 4th. Im not even sure they managed more than a couple first downs in the 4Q. The O-line was infighting on the sideline as the esks front got major pressure all through the 4th.

To Edmonton's credit, they are doing something historic here. Usually this rash of injuries is the death knell for a team, at least in the short term but somehow they have held it together and continued to find ways to get it done. In all my years of watching football, I don't think I've ever witnessed a team lose this many starters and continue to win despite it. Their depth is absolutely incredible. Losing 18 starters on a short CFL roster and still winning is unbelievable.

On to tonight...

Ricky Ray being out really messed up my plans for this game as I was prepared to hit Montreal hard as a short home fav. Having said that, had I been paying attention, I would've taken Toronto at +10.5 or above which they were for a few hours earlier today. You'd have thought they'd announced Anna Kournikova is playing QB. But its Jeff Mathews and he's not exactly an unknown quantity. He has a handful of starts under his belt and while he seriously lacks arm strenght, he generally sees the field well, can scramble his way out of trouble and makes decent decisions with the football. He can dink and dunk his way down the field but don't expect any quick scoring strikes. Montreal's secondary has a concern with a rookie NI playing safety but honestly I'm not sure Mathews has the arm strength to really exploit that weakness.
On the other side of the ball, Montreal gets Tyrell Sutton back who is probably the most underrated tailback in the league. I suspect we will see a steady dose of him running right into the heart of Toronto's depleted line. Tick tock, tick tock. Beyond that, Montreal's offense has consisted of a lot of underneath crossing routes and of course, thick-Nick Lewis finding soft spots for 7 yard gains. The Als also get back Tiquan Underwood this week and while he is a genuine speed threat that can stretch any defense, they have seldom used him that way.

1* TOR / MON 1H under 24 -110
 
Careful you don't get a 'piling on' penalty vk, cuz I'll be there first.

Anyway, looks as if Jon Jennings will be back starting at Sask tonight which is what we expected. I think he is a provides a better option for BC due to their o-Line thinness right now. Jennings can scramble his was out of a crumbling pocket better than Lulay. On the other side, Sask is also shuffling their line after losing starting C Dan Clarke. Still like my Lions -1 bet here. Line is now -3 at most shops.
 
Wow Jennings..what a disaster in the 1Q. I'm not sure if Lulay is available after the hit he took last week but Jennings does not look ready to play.

And that clip of Wally chastising his team right before the game speaks volumes. He said they didn't look ready and they don't. This bet is fucked.
 
3 interceptions in a quarter and a half and each one was 100% Jennings fault. He is clearly not in the right head space. Wally! Get him out of there!!
 
1* BC Lions 2H -4 -106

1.5* BC / SSK 2H under 27.5 -112

What an unexpected first half. When seeing something lopsided I usually like to see at least a sign of life before the half and I think I saw that with Lulay coming in. Sask is still getting crazy pressure but BC can adjust around that at the half. I think sask will try to wear down BCs defence with the run game. Going out on a limb here.
 
Wow what a fuckin disaster for BC last night. I really don't know what happened there. I don't know what Wally saw in his team before the game but he nailed it when he said "you don't look interested." I wish I could've seen that clip before kickoff...I would've extracted myself from that bet with all due haste.

I'll update the record later since I'm traveling but its not pretty. 3 losing weeks in a row. Need to right this ship.

Early bets...

2* Winnipeg +1 -106
1.5* EDM / WPG over 58.5 -107

No way Winnipeg should be dogged at home in this spot and with the way they are playing. I made it -2.5. I made the total 61.5 because both of these teams can score 30 every game without breaking a sweat. Edmonton's most recent injury woes are defensive with the loss of another 2 starters on the defensive line. That was the best unit they had left. Their OL may be a concern but its still been holding up and as far as receivers go, they may have to start a couple of cardboard cutouts this week but no matter, Reiley will hit them and move the chains.
 
Gonna make you an honorary Canadian vk.

I know what you mean though, after watching half a season with a 25 second play clock, I start watching the NFL and its so slooooowwwwww. And preseason can be painful in any league.
 
Thanks Sigo, good to be back on the winning side this week.

Going to take a small shot with a parlay on tonights games. I really like both favs but these are games that could be closer than expected so I don't want to trust both to overcome the spread.

0.75* Parlay Ottawa / Calgary ML +154

In the early game, Hamilton is once again a mess after losing DTs Ted Laurent & Evan Gill last week, the team is forced into some serious ratio juggling since both are NI players. The cats will likely start a raw rookie NI DT along with one 'murican and then go national with their wide receivers and/or backs. As if Collaros isn't having enough problems with his shitty line, now he will have to try and get it done with such big-time names as Mike Jones (who has had the dropsies recently), Giovanni Aprile and Faubert-Lussier. Ya gotta feel for the guy. He is 2 losses away from matching the record for most consecutive losing starts by a QB. At least Hamilton's secondary gets Emmanuel Davis and Demond Washington back so beyond the DL, they are starting to look more like a professional football team, although they lack playing time together. Ottawa is Ottawa but they need a win and have been so close, so many times, I think the cats could be the cure for what ails them. I don't trust them to get over the 3.5 though.

In the nightcap, what can you say about Calgary? They haven't lost coming out of a bye in several years including 8-0 on the road. They are the better team here, rested off a bye and turning back into the juggernaut of last season. Only concern is a 4.5pt spread on the road and the fact that BC utterly embarrassed themselves last week and had the proverbial 'players only meeting' afterward which I usually try to avoid fading as a capper. It won't get any easier for BC though as they have lost run-stopping DL Brooks and will have a tough time staying stout against Jerome Messam. They do get back Anthony Gaitor to shore up their secondary but its not going to overcome the loss of Brooks. And that offensive line was awful last week. I would expect to see some improvement there but there is only so much one can do with that lack of talent.
 
Was waiting for Ricky Ray news to make a bet on the final game of the week and it looks like he is starting which is what I had hoped.

1.5* Montreal +2.5 -106
1* MON / TOR under 51.5 -110

I was hoping for a 3 but any + number would do as I made this line Als -1. Montreal finally looks to be putting together a decent football team and are my bet to finish number 1 in the east now that they have it. They are sneaky-better than people expect, mostly because they've toiled in obscurity and sucked for the past couple of years. But they have a fantastic defense (even if the line has under-achieved statistically) that will keep them in every game. Frito Ray has awesome numbers but quickly wilts under pressure and I am guessing the Montreal defense will cause him headaches all day. Also, reports are he still has some soreness in his shoulder and my feeling is Trestman will not hesitate to pull him if he takes a hit or two. Trestman plays the long game. Also, while Ray has big passing numbers overall, his 2nd down conversion rate and redzone efficiency is near the bottom of the league. Toronto leads in field goal attempts which is not a good sign for the offense. They do get WR Posey back and he is a legit threat. On the other side of the ball, Montreal's offense was pretty weak to start the season but in the past couple of games Jacques 'le coq' Chapdelaine's scheme seems to be taking hold and Darian Durant has looked more comfortable. They have started to get the ball downfield to guys like the forgotten Ernest Jackson. Also, they get back Sam Guguere this week to bolster the receiving corps. He will supplant Tiquan Underwood although I would be leaving Underwood in as he has looked great this season and Giguere has always has a tendency to drop catchable balls.
As for the total, I made it the same as last week which was 49. I'm seeing a 23-21 kind of game here.
 
CFL Sides 8-8-1 +1.75*
CFL Totals 8-5 +4.20*
CFL 2H 7-4-1 +3.315*
Tease/Parlay 2-1 +1.155*

CFL Overall 25-18-2 +10.42*

Nice week except for Montreal not showing up. Also, had I not been gun-shy I should've hit Ottawa ML hard but they have just not been kind to me lately. Additionally, the 2H under in Toronto would have been a bet but the books I was monitoring only put up a line for a couple of minutes of halftime and I missed it.

Anyway, a quarter unit away from a new season high and I'll be watching for openers for next weeks games. BOL to anyone who's still paying attention.
 
1.5* BC Lions +2 -107

Wrong team favoured IMO as I made this BC -1.5. I've been taking a close look at Ottawa over the past couple of weeks to see where I went so wrong with them this year and I'm starting to see the issues. And I don't see that one win over the hopeless cats changes any of them. BC is the better team here and although they have had historical difficulties winning in the east, they haven't this season and with an 8 day week, have a travel day built in. Only concern is its an early start for them (12:30 pacific) but my guess is they will arrive a day early to acclimatize themselves. Ottawa has an average defense that really hasn't found an identity yet. Their DL is undersized and gets pushed around and fails to get consistent pressure. This is exactly what BC needs as the last two games their OL has been swamped by pressure, preventing Jennings from finding a rhythm.

Couple of other bets I'm looking at but going to wait out some lines.
 
2* Winnipeg -1 -102

I made this line -2.5. After starting the season 2-2, Winnipeg is on a roll winning 4 straight and is easily the hottest offense in the league. Matt Nichols is slinging it and the tempo offense they run, suits his style perfectly. Andrew Harris is looking as dominant as Messam in Calgary and is on pace to have 1000 yards rushing & receiving this season. And now they find themselves in the thick of the west race, with Edmonton continuing to lose players at an alarming rate and BLM playing hurt in Calgary, they have to sense a chance to move up the board. Defensively, they have been a bit underwhelming, especially the secondary but its looking more like DB Brandon Alexander could come back this week, replacing Roc Carmichael who is easily the weakest link in that group.

Montreal had a decent defense but injuries are slowly eating away at it. They lost safety Chris Ackie for the year 2 weeks ago and now lose MLB Dominique Tovell (just confirmed a cpl hours ago) meaning they will likely be starting a raw rookie Anthony Sarao at MLB. Add in the fact that their defensive line is a bit on the old side and I think Winnipeg will feed them a steady diet of Andrew Harris to wear them out. Also, word is that Tyrell Sutton is not practicing this week but may still start. Could just be for rest on a short week. At any rate, I stand by my assertion that Jacques 'le coq' Chapdelaine, while being a popular players coach is not a great one and while this team has taken strides, it still hasn't learned how to win tough games yet. This will be one of those.

This would be a larger bet but situationally theres a few things holding me back. Montreal looked absolutely awful against the Boatmen last week, like Tiger-cats awful. I hate fading a team the week after they got embarrassed. On the other side, Winnipeg is off their biggest win of the season, knocking off the previously undefeated Esks. That is a let down spot in the making. Also, Montreal seems to be that place where western powerhouse teams often get handed a slice of humble pie. It happened to the Stamps earlier in the year and not for the first time. I'm not sure if its the Montreal nightlife, but they seem to underperform far too often there. The one big situational aspect in our favour here is Montreal is on a 5 day week and the Peggers on 7. That will make it a tough turn-around after their loss.

Overall though I think the Bumblers are just too much for the Als and get a comfy win here.
 
1* TOR / CAL under 55 -107

This game fits into a couple of tendencies unique to the CFL that I have identified over the years so I marked it a while back. I made the line 52.5 and while that's normally a pretty thin margin for me to bet an under in this league, theres another angle to look at as well. Since the mid-season rule change to limit coaches challenges to 1 per game (from 2 and a potential 3rd) the under has gone 7-4-1. While I can't say there is a strong correlation there, when the rule change came about, I immediately thought the most affected team would be Calgary. Coach Dik Davenson made a science out of extending drives by challenging for DPI and interference calls and was ostensibly one of the top reasons the rule change was made. It was brilliant coaching when you consider those types of challenges had become a coin flip with the ineptitude of the league office. But now he doesn't have that option anymore. Beyond that Calgarys offense has had a rash of receiver injuries and BLM is obviously playing through some kind of injury...he's alluded to it on twitter a couple of times. His long ball has not looked right all year.
 
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