Hulu's CFL 2017

vk said:
Yes it is.

NBA is worse, college hoops is worse ... but those sports are also harder to officiate.
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree. Its hard to compare basketball to football. In football, I think you'd have to get down to the MAC to find officiating as consistently awful as the CFL. And whats worse is they have replay and frequently screw up those too.

Anyway, Will Hill knows how to handle a CFL official.
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Hulu, I see your Ti-Cats avatar and have to ask...and I've been trying to follow this league pretty consistently over the last few years...but is Hamilton being vastly overrated by the linesmakers in your opinion? Between the vast inexperience in the secondary and Collaros, who I just don't even see as better than Masoli to be honest, this just seems like a team that's going to give up too many points and not have a consistent offensive direction. If opposing teams are smart and take the special teams strength they have away from them like sask did Saturday, I just see them as kind of a team without any identity and pretty overrated at this point. Thoughts?
 
CFL Sides 1-2 -2.61*
CFL Totals 2-1 +0.86*
CFL 2H 3-0 +3.565*
Teasers 1-0 +1.00*

CFL Overall 7-3 +2.815*

Well that was a dick in the ass. What I learned...

-Toronto's pass rush is for real
-I said I would take Sask as a small home dog and I sat there staring at a +111 right before kickoff and didn't take it. D'Oh!
-BCs OL will be just fine and their offense will be potent.
-Montreal's secondary is more of a liability than first thought. Their offense just can't function. Doesn't say much about their HC/OC Chapdelaine.
-Hamilton is an utter mess. OL is a wreck, secondary is a wreck, no running game whatsoever, Collaros is running scared. Austin won't last the season.

Anyway, on to week 4. Maybe I'm not adjusting my view quickly enough but I still don't think Ottawa is this bad. Reading comments boards, a lot of the dippy public believes that they should be 5th or 6th ranked but I still think they will get it together. Maybe a Grey Cup hangover was to be expected but they went toe to toe and arguably outplayed Calgary for 2 games and then lost a game they shouldn't have by shooting them,selves in the foot. I can forgive one bad half of football, especially against a team with a disruptive front like Toronto appears to have built. Also, I think making Powell a healthy scratch in favour of Madu is a mistake Rick Campbell won't be making again. Edmonton OTOH is coming off a bye but has had some major injury setbacks. Without Sherritt, a rested Powell should be able to establish control if they want to. I think they can keep within 6. I made the number 4.

2* Ottawa +6 -107

They're my team but money is money and Hamilton fucking sucks. I could go on for an hour but the OL is horrid. Both tackles need upgrading and they just lost C Filer. Their secondary is a MASH unit and already the replacements are being airlifted in. They dropped Chris Davis this week and signed a couple of no names. There is a possibility Kaneh might come back this week but its a mess. Austin and co are under a LOT of heat in the city. Twitter and talk shows are filled with angry fans callign for his head. This is a train wreck, a mess. Unless BC has the stomach flu, this should be a win for them. Usually the 3 time zone difference is a factor but BC has a 2 day rest advantage here and they are coming early. Wally is no dummy.

3* BC Lions -3 -107
 
scarf31 said:
Hulu, I see your Ti-Cats avatar and have to ask...and I've been trying to follow this league pretty consistently over the last few years...but is Hamilton being vastly overrated by the linesmakers in your opinion? Between the vast inexperience in the secondary and Collaros, who I just don't even see as better than Masoli to be honest, this just seems like a team that's going to give up too many points and not have a consistent offensive direction. If opposing teams are smart and take the special teams strength they have away from them like sask did Saturday, I just see them as kind of a team without any identity and pretty overrated at this point. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Hey Scarf, yeah I'd have to agree with everything you said except to say that I think the books are close to catching up here. I was hoping to see sask open as a small home dog against them last week but it didn't happen and it was the public who pushed the line in favour of the cats before kickoff. A couple more big losses and the value will be gone. That's why I', fading the cats for 3 units this week. I don't do that lightly because the Ti-cats are my team since my dad took me to games as a kid back in the 80s. It sucks to have a big bet against your fav team. They finish 3rd in the east at best and only if Montreal proves to be worse.

Regarding Collaros. He has not returned to pre-injury form but its hard to tell behind such a rotten line and with a total lack of running game. His ability to run for positive yardage was an extra dimension to his game and he is just reluctant now. That may be him or the coaching staff keeping him from taking hits. Also, he seems to not be stepping into throws the same way. I'm no expert on QB mechanics but his throw doesn't seem to have zip this year. I am hearing rumors locally that Masoli may see some action against BC, maybe even significant time. At this point he might be a better option than Collaros just for toughness alone behind that line. Masoli can play but is prone to make one or two catastrophic mistakes a game (see Glenn, Kevin) so he's no long term answer.
 
1.5* Winnipeg 2H -3 -106

2 ST TDs in the first half and almost a 3rd if the officiating wasn't absolutely horrid. They also missed obvious OPI on the Argos that sustained a drive and on the final drive somehow missed an obvious offside. Between the help Toronto has received and 2 unlikely TDs, Winnipeg has played the better game. They should get the win at home.
 
I should correct that to say 1 unlikely TD for the Argos. The second was called back but still set them up in FG range
 
1.5* Calgary 2H -4.5 -106

Montreal has the best defence in the league right now and they will stay in every game but they are only ahead here thanks to a scoop and score and minor stamps meltdown. Calgary is simply too good to get beat here and should storm back. Only thing keeping this from being larger is Messam's ejection. They only have a NI sitting behind him.
 
Cats injury update...

Looks like Filer will start at center after missing early practice this week.
RT LaMarr Holmes will replace Jorden Swindle who was awful last week. Holmes is 6'6 335 but hasn't played in 2 years

On defence, strong side LB Hill is out serving his suspension and is replaced by Keon Lyn who hasn't played a meaningful game since 2013 at Syracuse.
Kaneh still isn't ready to step in so the secondary will be the same one that was torched by lil Kevin Glenn for 400 yards and Rocky Ray for over 500. Oh goody!

I still don't see how this is anything other than a rout
 
I'll take a shot with the over here. Cats defence is in such poor shape BC should easily score 30+. The tabbies have been offensively challenged through 2 games so far. The line was terrible but I am hoping they can manage 20 here at home. Keeping it to one unit because a 32-15 type score is a possibility here.

1* BC / HAM over 51.5 -107
 
CFL Sides 3-2 +2.39*
CFL Totals 3-2 +0.89*
CFL 2H 4-1 +3.475*
Tease/Parlay 1-1 +0.00*

CFL Overall 11-6 +6.755*

P2W, Sigo... :cheers3:

So a new season high and 3 out of 4 weeks profitable. Can't complain.
 
Thanks vk. Lets keep it rollin....

2* Ottawa -3.5 -111 I made this line -5.5 and I think it heads that direction so getting on it now.

2* Edmonton -3 -107 Edmonton lost yet another LB but Hamilton still sucks. Will fade them until the books realize just how badly.

1.5* Winnipeg +8.5 -111 Huh? 8.5?? I made this line 4.5 and really don't understand considering BC on a short week here even heading home. Winnipeg is mediocre but can keep this within a TD I would hope.

As usual, will be dding throughout the week if I see value.

eta...upped EDM to a 2 unit play after more consideration
 
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Hamilton is head and shoulders above the rest of the league in ineptitude. That offense isn't likely to be fixed against the nose kissers. Problem I have is that I think EDM is overrated and I don't think their offense is playing particularly well right now either. Ticats secondary can sure fix that in a hurry but Reilly without an interception so far and pretty sure he has thrown dd int's the last three seasons. Hamilton is just so darn bad but Edmonton is getting a lot of love and they are maybe the fourth best team in the league; Certainly behind BC and Calgary

Keep it going.
 
I agree vk. My power rankings are as follows...

1-BC
2-Calgary
3-Edmonton
4-Ottawa
5-Winnipeg
6-Toronto
7-Montreal
8-Sask
9-Hamilton

Looking at the CFL.ca and 3downnation power rankings they both have Edmonton at #1 and Ottawa at 7 or 8. Thats the 2 best value teams in the league right now.

Yeah I'm somewhat less sanguine about my Esks bet than I was a couple of days ago. They already lost MLB Sherritt earlier this season and now lost another LB Konar who will be a harder replacement given his NI status. Add in the loss of White (Treyvon Van is a completely different runner) and now Adarius Bowman is sitting also. Bowman's loss may not be that huge as they have a plethora of good receivers. And the cats defense can make any QB look like a star.

On the cats side they only make one small change from last week with LB Will Hill coming back from suspension. That will move Keon Lyn over to the boundry corner where he should be more at home because he looked lost and winded last week as the nickel LB spot. That moves Ethan Davis to the bench where he belongs. So a slight uptick on defense that has another game under their belts but is still very raw in the secondary. And they're on a short week with only 1 day practice. On offense, the addition of Holmes at RT was a big improvement but Collaros still has to throw with defenders in his face regularly. It beats me as to why they don't bring in a FB to block and provide a relief valve for him. They have a good receiving FB in Carl Olivier Prime but seem to be averse to using him.

I'll stick with my Edmonton play.
 
Gonna be travelling all day today so I'll get down now on a pair of totals that I like...

1* EDM / HAM over 52.5 -103
1* WPG / BC under 56.5 -107

Not exactly sure why the drop in Hamilton, maybe its Bowmans absence or possible T-storms but I originally made this number 54 and still leaned over. I think Hamilton can score 20 here with Collaros slowly developing some chemistry with his receivers and the OL looking somewhat more capable than they did to start the season. Edmonton has the firepower to make up the difference.In BC, I think the Bombers front will pressure Lulay and he won't look as good as he did against Hamilton's hapless secondary. On the other side, Nichols is more of a game manager than a big play guy. I made this one 53.
 
Thanks gents. I wasn't even planning to get involved with that game but sometimes you still see a bad line like that in the CFL. Its why I love betting smaller markets.

So this is one of those weeks where its better to be lucky than good. Honestly the only bet I feel was correct was the over in Hamilton. The side was a push and I was lucky to not have to pay the price for hitting what was, the correct line in retrospect. Hamilton took some steps toward looking like a professional football team on Thursday. The secondary was not as awful as it has been, the front got constant pressure on Reilly and the play calling was good enough on offense to overcome what is still a below average offensive line. Was a shame to see Keon Lyn break his leg because he actually looked like he could find a place at boundry corner and provide nice depth once Kaneh and Davis are back. The cats have some other good players coming healthy as the season goes on, Butler, Fantuz so they could be a force in the second half of the season. They will still be a write-off for the next two games as they do the Alberta two-step.

No play play in tonights game as I think both side and total are about right. Gun to my head Calgary might be worth one leg of a teaser, leaving the other leg open until a suitable candidate comes along. But most likely nothing. I will be watching so a 2H play is possible.
 
Just for fun...both these offenses can score so I'm not sure why the drop on this total. I believe I made it 57 so its a bit on the low side now.

0.5* SSK / CAL over 55 +103
 
1* Ottawa 2H +0.5 -106

The Argos lost their 2 best defenders in the first half and Ottawa's late drive showed how much they miss both Butler and Woods. Laing hurt on the last play too...who knows what his status is. I think Ottawa comes back.
 
Looks like it might be the opposite of some of the other ottawa games ... Argos gonna win everything but the scoreboard.
 
Thanks gents.

Hoping Ottawa can keep up their energy level through the 2nd half. The Argos losing 3 key defenders in the first half made this a must bet.
 
The game was there for Ottawa but terrible clock management there at the end. Why on earth did they not work the clock after the turnover on downs. Instead they go to the house and leave the Argos with an eternity to move downfield. Dumb.

vk, you are right, poor coaching is a blight on this league. There has been a changing of the guard in the past few years but I would say right now the only two quality coaches in the league are Trestman and Buono. Problem is you need a coach with CFL experience and so many talented guys get poached by the NCAA before they get a chance at a head gig (Orlondo Steinauer). Can't blame anyone for jumping to a bigger paycheck.
 
CFL Sides 5-2-1 +5.89*
CFL Totals 4-4 +0.32*
CFL 2H 5-1 +4.475*
Tease/Parlay 1-1 +0.00*

CFL Overall 15-8 +10.685*

A couple of nice situations I like for next week. I've got my power rankings updated and my lines set. We'll see what the books give us.
 
The lines are getting tighter. No more gifts this week.

Week 6

1.5* BC Lions +3 -107
I was hoping for a +3.5 here so bad I could taste it (they taste like chicken) but the books are wiser this week. Still though, Edmonton is overrated IMO and BC is chugging along whomever is at QB. I think Lulay is the better matchup against the Esks. Add in the fact that they should've beaten Edmonton back in week and I think Wally and Co. could get it done on the road. I made this line 1.5. I will add to this is I can find a +3.5 during the week. May also add on the ML if available at the right price.

1.5* TOR / SSK over 52.5 -107
Ricky Ray has been passing, passing, passing this year and hasn't yet had a game under 350 yards yet IIRC. The porous sask secondary shouldn't provide much of an obstacle here. On the other side, Sask has a pretty mediocre offense but Glenn can pass and they have at least a few threats on offense. More importantly, Toronto lost 3 key defensive starters on Monday. Victor Butler who lead the league in sacks and was early candidate for defensive MOP this season is out, maybe for the season. Cleyon Laing, also from the DL suffered a knee injury and may be gone for the year as well. MLB Bear Woods is in concussion protocol but may be back next game. Best of all, the Argos are on a 5 day turn around time with travel to the wilds of Saskatchewan. Their defense will have difficulty getting pressure on Glenn which is his (and any QBs) weakness. I made this total 55.

1* Hamilton +12.5 -107
What am I crazy? Sadly the answer is yes. But I still saw some improvement in the cats last week and I think their offense has the tools to scheme around their line weakness and score some points. Defensively, we may see some starters return this week but possibly not, its early yet. Even if not, the beleaguered secondary has another week playing together and a couple of extra practices with a 9 day week. On the other side, Calgary has a fierce defense but the offense has really only looked good once this season, last game against the green riders. Lil Bo Levi Peep has struggled with his long ball all year and while the O is solid, they're not blowing anyone out. I see a 26-19 type of game here. I waffled making this line 9.5 or 10.5 but either way I think 12.5 is a tad high. Only thing keeping this a 1 unit bet is that Jerome Messam finally looked dominant for the first time last week. I feel like Hamilton's front 4 can contain him better than Sask though.
 
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Bit too soon with Hamilton as I could've had a 13.5 and maybe even a 14. Kaneh is confirmed back at HB which is a big boost to the secondary and the team signed Ellis for depth. Simoni Lawrence will miss the game though which is a big blow.

Offensively they're starting Gable over Sheuerman to help with pass blocking which is good although I still wish they would get the FB more involved. The line shifts with Fulton being out Holmes moves to LT and a newcomer fills in. Fulton has looked sub-par this year IMO so this may be an upgrade.
 
What a nutty crazy game. The Cunningham fumble recovery at the end of the third was off the hook. And that inside kick might be the most perfectly executed I've ever seen. Medlock placed that ball on a dime.
 
Thanks Sigo. I've definitely had some bounces and favourable officiating to help out. Couldn't hit a 2H play in the NBA this year to save my life.

One further update for the Cats that I just noticed on the wire. Jr. Collins will sit and be replaced by Kevin Elliot at wideout. Collins had proven himself to be a reliably handed receiver who can fill in at multiple positions but he is short and on the slower side so with him at wideout they really couldn't stretch the field on that side. And for some reason Tyms who has wideout size/speed apparently isn't ready to move out of the SB position. Elliot is a much bigger target which should help out Collaros who will be under pressure all night and he also has the speed to stretch the defense a bit more which should open up things inside.

I'm also interested in the development of Kavell Conner who will step in at MLB as Larry Dean slides to the weak side to fill in for Lawrence. Its an odd move but with Conner having 6 season in the NFL, I would hope he has some skillz. We shall see.
 
Ugh after Anthony Gaitor practiced this week and looked like he would play, now I am hearing he will be a scratch tonight. That's 2 holes Wally has to patch in his secondary tonight after losing Kenyan Martin for a few weeks as well. Not as nice a setup as I had hoped for with this game.
 
Wow 2 challenges on that drive and both completely wrong. The CFL had better fix its officiating because its becoming an embarrassment.
 
That game last night was infuriating. i don't like to blame losses on officiating but that one was pretty clear cut. The CFL has gone from bad to worse in that department but usually you can hope for the bad calls to roughly even out over time. Last night though, they were giving the Esks call after call, both on the field and in the challenge center. 3 separate drive-sustaining calls, all nonsensical, for the Esks. No opponent can overcome that kind of tilted field. I don't know if BC would have won the game but I know they were robbed of their chance by the officials. Plain and simple.

The CFL had better look into making changes here and stat. This cannot wait until the offseason, its a crisis right now that needs addressing. First, eliminate challenges for illegal contact and limit PI challenges to one per game. That can be done right now and will immediately improve things a little bit.

Beyond that, they had better plan of recruiting some officials, both on field and for the command center. When is the last time an official was fired in the CFL? Its been years!! I don't care what nationality they are as long as they can call a game. Then plan on paying them more than you do now because you pay for shit, you get shit. And run some intensive training clinics in the offseason so these guys know what actually constitutes PI and roughing the passer because half the present failures have no idea.

In short, its a joke and an embarrassment and if this league is going to survive, it needs to change NOW.
 
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