HHM - NASCAR (2023)

[He Hate Me]

COTA:
Xfinity +2 units
Cup +0.96 units

2023:
Xfinity -0.25 units
Cup -8.33 units
Total -8.58 units

 

[He Hate Me]

Pre-practice and pre-qualify bets for Richmond:

1.5 units:
Hamlin -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Briscoe -120 over Bubba (BAS & BetUS)
Logano -125 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)
Blaney -120 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)

$20 on Hamlin to win +900 (Bovada)

 

[CPA-hole]

Xfinity and Cup qualifying cancelled

 

[He Hate Me]

I added:

Bell -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)

Hopefully, I can add to the Briscoe over Bubba bet when limits are raised tomorrow. I may add more to Blaney over Reddick if the odds remain the same.

I will check out the group bets tomorrow, the BM matchups once they go up, and I will probably bet Harvick as the top Ford once I compare the odds at the places I use.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added to these bets:

1.5 units:
Briscoe -120 over Bubba (BetUS)

0.5 units:
Blaney -105 over Reddick (BetUS)

I also added this one, was hoping for +250

0.5 units:
Harvick Top Ford +200 (BetUS)

 

[He Hate Me]

Bets so far:

3 units:
Briscoe -120 over Bubba (BAS & BetUS)

2 units:
Blaney -120 & -105 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS) This is now -105.

1.5 units:
Hamlin -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Bell -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Logano -125 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS) This is now -105
0.5 units:
Harvick Top Ford +200 (BetUS)

$20 on Hamlin to win +900 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

This makes it less dangerous to bet on those starting in the rear due to qualifying being canceled. Berry, Preece, Almirola, Bubba, and Dillon will be helped by this. I wish there were some Berry matchups. I may bet on some Dillon and Preece matchups because of this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642552115636711425

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

1 unit:
Blaney +102 over Reddick (BM)

 

[He Hate Me]

I guess people are betting on Reddick because he finished 3rd at Phoenix. He benefitted by taking 4 tires at the end when the cars in front of him took 2, except Harvick. There were multiple restarts after that and the restarts are crazy at Phoenix. If you are aggressive you can gain a lot of positions. Harvick was not aggressive and Reddick was.

Also, Hamlin was running about 6th or 7th, when he took out Chastain in overtime of the Phoenix race so Hamlin had a better car than his 23rd-place finish at Phoenix.

It is also worth noting that both Briscoe and Bell were coming toward the front in the Phoenix race. Bell was in 3rd when the last caution came out with 10 to go, which really screwed Harvick who was easily winning at the time. Bell also took 4 tires at that caution and had a long pit stop and came out in 11th. He finished in 6th, but had a top 3 car.

Briscoe started in the rear 1/2 of the field and steadily came up through the field all day long to finish 7th.

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

1.5 units:

Austin Dillon +105 over Almirola (BAS & BetUS)

I will probably bet on Bell over Byron at BM but I am waiting to see how high it goes. It is currently +113

 

[He Hate Me]

I also bet this:

0.5 units:
Briscoe to win Group D over Almirola, Bubba, and Preece +250 (Bovada)

I may have waited too long to take Bell over Blaney on BM. It went up to +117 but is +105 now.

 

[He Hate Me]

This is a summary of my bets for today:

3 units:
Briscoe -120 over Bubba (BAS & BetUS)
Blaney -120 & -105 & +102 over Reddick (BAS, BetUS, & BM)

1.5 units:
Hamlin -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Bell -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Logano -125 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS) This is now -105
Austin Dillon +105 over Almirola (BAS & BetUS)

0.5 units:
Harvick Top Ford +200 (BetUS)
Briscoe to win Group D over Almirola, Bubba, and Preece +250 (Bovada)

$20 on Hamlin to win +900 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

My luck has to change, right?

I bet on Blaney and he has 2 pit road penalties.

I bet on Hamlin and he has a pit road penalty.

I bet on Logano and he had to come back in to tighten the lug on his wheel.

I bet on Harvick and he had issues with the lug on his wheel and lost about 20 spots in the pit.

No one I bet against has had a penalty or pit issue. Truex has complained about his steering but it does not seem to be an issue.

 

[He Hate Me]

And Hamlin has another issue on pit road while leading. Issue with the lug.

 

[He Hate Me]

Finally, someone has a penalty that I bet against, Bubba.

 

[He Hate Me]

Hamlin with another pit penalty. Had a chance to pass Truex since Truex does not have any new tires, but not now.

 

[He Hate Me]

This is a summary of my bets for today:

3 units:
Briscoe -120 over Bubba (BAS & BetUS)
Blaney -120 & -105 & +102 over Reddick (BAS, BetUS, & BM)

1.5 units:
Hamlin -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Bell -115 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Logano -125 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS) This is now -105
Austin Dillon +105 over Almirola (BAS & BetUS)

0.5 units:
Harvick Top Ford +200 (BetUS)
Briscoe to win Group D over Almirola, Bubba, and Preece +250 (Bovada)

$20 on Hamlin to win +900 (Bovada)

+1.48 units

 

[He Hate Me]

Richmond:
Xfinity +0 units
Cup +1.48 units

2023:
Xfinity -0.25 units
Cup -6.85 units
Total -7.1 units

 

[He Hate Me]

Practice was canceled for the Bristol dirt race due to rain.

Not much history here so I will probably not bet much this week. So far I have bet this:

1 unit:
Stenhouse -115 over Chastain (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added:

1 unit:
Stenhouse -120 over Hamlin (Bovada)
Bowman -130 over Suarez (Bovada)
Bowman -125 over Chastain (BetUS)
Gilliland -120 over Ty Dillon (BetUS)

$10 JJ Yeley to win +20000 (Bovada)
$10 Bell to win +750 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

Added this:

1 unit:
Logano +120 over Busch (BAS)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added 2 more and that should be it. Not much today:

1 unit:
Stenhouse -115 over Chastain (Bovada)
Stenhouse -120 over Hamlin (Bovada)
Bowman -130 over Suarez (Bovada)
Bowman -125 over Chastain (BetUS)
Gilliland -120 over Ty Dillon (BetUS)
Logano +120 over Busch (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Bowman to win Group C +260 over Preece, Chastain, and Stenhouse (BetUS)
Bowman to win Group C +250 over Stenhouse, Hamlin, and Suarez (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added 2 more and that should be it. Not much today:

1 unit:
Stenhouse -115 over Chastain (Bovada)
Stenhouse -120 over Hamlin (Bovada)
Bowman -130 over Suarez (Bovada)
Bowman -125 over Chastain (BetUS)
Gilliland -120 over Ty Dillon (BetUS)
Logano +120 over Busch (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Bowman to win Group C +260 over Preece, Chastain, and Stenhouse (BetUS)
Bowman to win Group C +250 over Stenhouse, Hamlin, and Suarez (Bovada)

-0.9 units

Again the last caution cost me. This time turning 2 winning bets into losers.

 

[He Hate Me]

Bristol Dirt:
Xfinity +0 units
Cup -0.9 units

2023:
Xfinity -0.25 units
Cup -7.75 units
Total -8.0 units

 

[He Hate Me]

I bet these before practice and qualifying on Saturday:

1 unit:
Blaney +105 over Chase Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -120 over Reddick (BetUS)

 

[He Hate Me]

Xfinity:

Creed is going to the rear and the lines have not adjusted so:

1 unit:
Austn Hill even over Creed (BAS)

 

[He Hate Me]

Xfinity:

Creed is going to the rear and the lines have not adjusted so:

1 unit:
Austn Hill even over Creed (BAS)

I tried to bet more on this, but I did not get my BetUS bet in quick enough.

 

[He Hate Me]

Xfinity:

Creed is going to the rear and the lines have not adjusted so:

1 unit:
Austn Hill even over Creed (BAS)

+1 unit, I lucked into that.

 

[He Hate Me]

I like Byron, Truex, Logano, and Bubba today. The odds make Byron unbettable. Here is what I have so far including the 2 pre-practice bets. I may add to some of the 2 unit bets.

2 units:
Bubba +115 over Suarez (Bovada)
Bubba -115 over Buescher (BAS)
Logano -115 over Kyle Busch (Bovada)
Logano -110 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)
Logano even over Chase Elliott (BAS & BetUS)
Truex -110 over Larson (BM)
Truex -105 over Hamlin (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Blaney +105 over Chase Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -120 over Reddick (BetUS)
Bubba to win Group J +260 over Keselowski, Buescher, Ty Gibbs (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Logano to win Group F +225 over Blaney, Kyle Busch, Chastain (Bovada)

$20 Byron to win +450 (I will live bet off this)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these 2:

3 units:
Briscoe -115 over Suarez (Bovada)

2 units:
Allmendinger -120 over Stenhouse (BAS & BetUS)

 

[He Hate Me]

And of course the driver I bet the most on is starting from the rear, fml.

 

[He Hate Me]

And Truex and Bubba are to the rear with speeding penalties on pit road. I can't win.

 

[He Hate Me]

And Allmendinger with a pit speeding penalty. I quit.

 

[He Hate Me]

I like Byron, Truex, Logano, and Bubba today. The odds make Byron unbettable. Here is what I have so far including the 2 pre-practice bets. I may add to some of the 2 unit bets.

2 units:
Bubba +115 over Suarez (Bovada)
Bubba -115 over Buescher (BAS)
Logano -115 over Kyle Busch (Bovada)
Logano -110 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)
Logano even over Chase Elliott (BAS & BetUS)
Truex -110 over Larson (BM)
Truex -105 over Hamlin (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Blaney +105 over Chase Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -120 over Reddick (BetUS)
Bubba to win Group J +260 over Keselowski, Buescher, Ty Gibbs (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Logano to win Group F +225 over Blaney, Kyle Busch, Chastain (Bovada)

$20 Byron to win +450 (I will live bet off this)

+16.27 units

My luck changed

 

[He Hate Me]

Martinsville:
Xfinity +1 unit
Cup +16.27 units

2023:
Xfinity +0.75 units
Cup +8.52 units
Total +9.27 units

 

[He Hate Me]

I played these today for the Talladega race:

0.5 unit:
Bowman -115 over Reddick (BetUS)
Jones to win Group E +260 over Cindric, Truex, Reddick (Bovada)

1 unit:
Jones Top 10 +170 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +250 (Bovada)
Cindric to win Group H +280 over Bowman, Buescher, Reddick (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these:

1.5 units:
McDowell -110 over Haley (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon +105 over Stenhouse (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Bowman -115 over Reddick (BAS) I now have 1.5 units on this

 

[captjohn67]

Seems like Nemechek -115 v Berry is worth a shot today. Past few days have been pretty damn warm for this time of year (85) so catching a nice break for track temps this weekend.

 

[He Hate Me]

Seems like Nemechek -115 v Berry is worth a shot today. Past few days have been pretty damn warm for this time of year (85) so catching a nice break for track temps this weekend.

I am gonna look through the Xfinity matchups now to see if anything sticks out.

 

[He Hate Me]

I have played these for the Xfinity race today, all of the 0.5 unit bets will be 1 unit bets once limits are raised or BAS puts their matchups up:

0.5 unit
Ryan Truex +110 over Creed (BetUS)
Jeb Burton -115 over Moffitt (BetUS)
Klingerman -115 over Brandon Jones (BetUS)

1 unit:
JHN -115 over Berry (Bovada)

 

[CPA-hole]

Seems like Nemechek -115 v Berry is worth a shot today. Past few days have been pretty damn warm for this time of year (85) so catching a nice break for track temps this weekend.

Berry better on short tracks. Big advantage for JHN on SS tracks. That's a good number.

 

[He Hate Me]

Observations about Cup qualifying:

1. Qualifying does not matter.
2. WIth that being said, something is off with Stenhouse's car.
3. Hopefully the Toyota drivers will be bet since all 6 cars qualified in the top 13.
4. Toyota drivers have not done well on superspeedways, primarily due to a lack of numbers and the inability to push each other in the draft like the Fords can.
5. In both Talladega races last year in the new car, there was only a total of 3 Toyota drivers in the top 15 counting both races.
6. This year at Daytona there were 3 Toyotas in the top 15, but only 1 in the top 10.

Tomorrow, I will take Fords against Toyotas in the matchups or Chevy drivers that are good superspeedways against Toyotas.

 

[He Hate Me]

I have played these for the Xfinity race today, all of the 0.5 unit bets will be 1 unit bets once limits are raised or BAS puts their matchups up:

0.5 unit
Ryan Truex +110 over Creed (BetUS)
Jeb Burton -115 over Moffitt (BetUS)
Klingerman -115 over Brandon Jones (BetUS)

1 unit:
JHN -115 over Berry (Bovada)

I forgot one big one:

10 whole dollars on Jeb Burton to win at +3500 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I have added to my Xfinity bets. This is a summary of what I have:

1.5 unit:
JHN -115 over Berry (Bovada)
Jeb Burton -115 over Moffitt (BetUS)

1 unit
Ryan Truex +110 over Creed (BetUS)
Klingerman -115 over Brandon Jones (BetUS)

10 whole dollars on Jeb Burton to win at +3500 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I have added to my Xfinity bets. This is a summary of what I have:

1.5 unit:
JHN -115 over Berry (Bovada)
Jeb Burton -115 over Moffitt (BetUS)

1 unit
Ryan Truex +110 over Creed (BetUS)
Klingerman -115 over Brandon Jones (BetUS)

10 whole dollars on Jeb Burton to win at +3500 (Bovada)

+3.27 units

 

[He Hate Me]

I added some and added to some bets for the Cup race tomorrow:

3 units:
McDowell -110 & -115 over Haley (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon +105 & -110 over Stenhouse (BAS & BetUS)

2 units:
Bowman -115 & -120 over Reddick (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Jones Top 10 +170 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +250 (Bovada)
Cindric to win Group H +280 over Bowman, Buescher, Reddick (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Jones to win Group E +260 over Cindric, Truex, Reddick (Bovada)
Bubba to win Group G +280 over Larson, Bell, Stenhouse

$20 Austin Dillon to win +2800 (Bovada)

I may bet Bubba over Stenhouse and find some more ways to fade Reddick.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added 2 more:

1 unit:
Austin Dillon -115 over Truex (BetUS)
McDowell -110 over Allmendinger (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

Gonna be a bad day.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added some and added to some bets for the Cup race tomorrow:

3 units:
McDowell -110 & -115 over Haley (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon +105 & -110 over Stenhouse (BAS & BetUS)

2 units:
Bowman -115 & -120 over Reddick (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Jones Top 10 +170 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +250 (Bovada)
Cindric to win Group H +280 over Bowman, Buescher, Reddick (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Jones to win Group E +260 over Cindric, Truex, Reddick (Bovada)
Bubba to win Group G +280 over Larson, Bell, Stenhouse

$20 Austin Dillon to win +2800 (Bovada)

I may bet Bubba over Stenhouse and find some more ways to fade Reddick.

-10.75 units

Talladega:
Xfinity +3.27 units
Cup -10.75
Total -7.48 units

2023:
Xfinity +4.02 units
Cup -2.23 units
Total +1.75 units

 

[He Hate Me]

-10.75 units

Talladega:
Xfinity +3.27 units
Cup -10.75
Total -7.48 units

2023:
Xfinity +4.02 units
Cup -2.23 units
Total +1.75 units

Nascar has changed the finishing order Bowman finished 13th and Reddick 16th, which is a 4.35 unit swing for me