HHM - NASCAR (2023)

He Hate Me said:
I have added a few and unless I add more to the 2 unit plays or the lines change a lot this is probably all that I will have today:

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (Bovada)
Briscoe Top 10 (even) (Bovada) (This is now +125 which I think is a good bet)

1 unit:
Cindric -125 over Preece (BetUS & BAS)
Blaney -110 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Briscoe -115 over Bowman (BetUS & BAS)
Briscoe +125 over Byron (Bovada) (This is now +180, but I still would not bet this now based on how strong Byron looked)
Hamlin -115 over Bell (Bovada)
Erik Jones -115 &-130 over Austin Dillon (BetUS)
Erik Jones -110 over Ty Gibbs (BetUS & BAS)
Stenhouse +155 over McDowell (BetUS & BAS)
Keselowski Top 10 +135 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe to win Group G +350 over Bowman, Suarez, and Bubba (Bovada)
Keselowski to win Group D +270 over Reddick, Suarez, and Bubba (BetUS)
Ford to win +155 (This is now +200 to +290, but I would not bet it because I did not expect the Toyota cars to look good in practice and qualifying)

$10 Keselowski to win +5000 (BetUS)
Click to expand...
-3.28 units

I still do not know what happened to Keselowski after that last pit stop for the caution that I did not need. I was not paying close attention to the race, I don't know if he just had a really bad pit stop or a penalty. He was in front of Bubba and in the Top 10 for every lap of the race except for the 3 laps after that last caution.
 
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Phoenix:
Xfinity -0.25 units
Cup -3.28 units

2023:
Xfinity -0.85 units
Cup +0.26 units
Total -0.59 units
 
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No practice this week and qualifying will not mean much so I am making the majority of my bets now. I may add to these later.

2 units:
Byron -115 over Larson (Bovada, BetUS, and BAS)

1.5 units:
Keselowski over +100 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Blaney +100 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Burton +115 over Gilliland (BetUS & BAS)
McDowell -120 over Gragson (BetUS & BAS)

1.0 unit:
Suarez Top 10 +150 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Lajoie Top 10 +225 (Bovada)
Blaney Top 5 +245 (Bovada)
 
No practice or qualifying to the Xfinity race.

I played these:

1 unit:

Allgaier -125 over Mayer (BetUS)
Allgaier -115 over Berry (Bovada)
Truex -115 over Mayer (Bovada)
 
captjohn67 said:
First 8 all fords for the first time since 1965. Damn
Click to expand...
Yeah, it looks like the Ford drivers who draft well like Keselowski, Blaney, Logano, Cindric, and to a lesser degree McDowell and Buescher should do well tomorrow. Although often Logano and Keselowski are too aggressive with the draft and end up wrecking.
 
I have added to some bets and added new ones. Current bets:

3 units:
Byron -115 & -105 over Larson (Bovada, BetUS, BM, and BAS)
Bubba -110 & -115 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)
Suarez +105 & -105 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)

2 units:
Blaney +100 & -105 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Harvick -115 over Reddick (BetUS & BAS)

1.5 units:
Keselowski +100 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Keselowski -110 over Hamlin (BetUS & BAS)
Chastain -115 over Hamlin (BAS & BetUS)
Cindric -105 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Burton +115 over Gilliland (BetUS & BAS)
McDowell -120 over Gragson (BetUS & BAS)

1.0 unit:
Suarez Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Lajoie Top 10 +225 & +250 (Bovada & BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Bubba Top Toyota +450 (BetUS)
Blaney Top 5 +245 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +250 (Bovada)
Keselowski +240 to win Group C over Reddick, Truex, and Boman (BetUS)

$10 Blaney to win +1200
 
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Based on qualifying and lack of practice I expect to have lots of wrecks today.
3 cars hit the wall or spun out in qualifying and many more had to back out of the throttle in order to keep from wrecking.

There was no "big one" in the Xfinity race yesterday, but lots of 1 - 3 car wrecks.

The Fords have lots of speed and the Toyotas do not.
During qualifying, Bowyer and Tony Stewart were saying that the Toyota cars were intentionally giving up speed for handling but the in-car cameras showed that the Ford cars were handling the best, so they appear to have handling and speed. The in-car cameras of the Toyota cars showed that they were not handling well and 2 of the 3 cars that wrecked in qualifying were Toyotas.

Betting Top 10s seems to be the best way to bet on this race, similar to betting Daytona, but the books have killed the Top 10 odds this year.

Bell will start from the rear, but that should not matter much on a track like Atlanta.

The entrance to pit road has been relocated so there will be pit road penalties and wrecks because of this.
 
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He Hate Me said:
I have added to some bets and added new ones. Current bets:

3 units:
Byron -115 & -105 over Larson (Bovada, BetUS, BM, and BAS)
Bubba -110 & -115 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)
Suarez +105 & -105 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)

2 units:
Blaney +100 & -105 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Harvick -115 over Reddick (BetUS & BAS)

1.5 units:
Keselowski +100 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Keselowski -110 over Hamlin (BetUS & BAS)
Chastain -115 over Hamlin (BAS & BetUS)
Cindric -105 over Truex (BAS & BetUS)
Burton +115 over Gilliland (BetUS & BAS)
McDowell -120 over Gragson (BetUS & BAS)

1.0 unit:
Suarez Top 10 +150 (Bovada)
Lajoie Top 10 +225 & +250 (Bovada & BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Bubba Top Toyota +450 (BetUS)
Blaney Top 5 +245 (Bovada)
McDowell Top 10 +250 (Bovada)
Keselowski +240 to win Group C over Reddick, Truex, and Boman (BetUS)

$10 Blaney to win +1200
Click to expand...
-9.55 units, Horrible day

I am putting Burton on my do not bet list. I keep hoping the Wood Brothers superspeedway edge would rub off on him, but it is not.

I am also not betting on Bubba unless it is at Daytona or Talladega.
 
Atlanta:
Xfinity -1.4 units
Cup -9.55 units

2023:
Xfinity -2.25 units
Cup -9.29 units
Total -11.54 units
 
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I played this:

2 units:
Reddick -110 over Kyle Busch (Bovada)

I will play Allmendinger (currently +100) over Kyle Larson and Allmendinger (currently -125) over William Byron. Both are at Bovada.
Allmendinger usually does not qualify that well on road courses so I will wait until after qualifying to bet.

If you have Draftkings as an option they have these:
Allmendinger +100 over Byron (crazy line)
Reddick +100 over Kyle Busch
 
I added these before qualifying:

2 units:
Reddick +120 & +100 over Chastain (Bovada & BetUS)

1 unit:
Reddick -115 over Kyle Busch (BAS) I now have 3 units on this.
Cindric -105 & -110 over Byron (BetUS & BAS)
McDowell +125 over Bowman (BAS)
Erik Jones -115 over Jimmie Johnson (BAS)

0.5 units:
Suarez -105 over Byron (BetUS)
Bell +145 over Byron (BetUS)
Reddick +105 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
McDowell -105 over Briscoe (BetUS)
McDowell Top 10 +110 (Bovada)

There are no caution flags at the stage breaks in this race, so qualifying will be more important here. I doubt there are many or maybe any cautions so a driver may win by 10 seconds or more. They will also choose the inside or outside lane after any cautions for the first time at a road course.
 
Reddick is fast, but Byron is on the pole.

Maybe the Reddick matchup odds will not move too much since he did not qualify on the pole. I have 5.5 units on Reddick and I wish I would have bet more pre-practice and pre-qualifying. He is the person to beat.

I am against Byron in 3 matchups. I still feel good about Cindric and Suarez over Byron so I will probably be able to add more to those.
I don't feel great about Byron over Bell, but I only have a 0.5 unit and it is at +145.

McDowell wrecked in qualifying but still qualified 20th, one spot behind Briscoe who I have in a matchup. Hopefully, I can add to McDowell over Briscoe.
McDowell Top 10 looks kinda shaky now starting mid-pack, but if it moves to around +150 I will add more.
McDowell over Bowman will be tough now, but I have McDowell at +125

Jimmie Johnson's car is trash, I doubt I will be able to add more to my Erik Jones bet against him, but I will try to fade JJ when the matchups are posted again.

Hamlin and Truex who are still living off of their road course performances prior to 2022 and prior to the new car both qualified in the 20s. I will fade if possible.

I did not bet on Buescher but I planned on it as he is good at road courses, but he practiced and qualified poorly so I will not be on him.

Larson and Chastain did not qualify as well as their pre-practice and pre-qualifying odds.

I do not know what happened to Blaney, but he qualified 38th. I know one of his qualifying laps was disqualified.
 
He Hate Me said:
Added:

1.5 units:
McDowell -115 over Buescher (BAS & BetUS)

$20 Reddick to win +405 (BM)
Click to expand...
Weird seeing McDowell make that mistake in qualifying but he's a better RC driver than CB.

GL today. Should be interesting without stage breaks today. Like you said, we could see someone win by a mile.
 
I added this, I am waiting to bet on Allmendinger over Busch, Chastain, and maybe Larson, but I want to see what Allmendinger matchups BM has before I do:

1 unit:
Jordan Taylor Top 10 +120 (Bovada)
 
Added:

1 unit:
Allmendinger +105 over Chastain (BAS)
Allmendinger -105 over Kyle Busch (BetUS & BS)
 
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Added:

2 units:
Logano -115 over Truex (BM)
McDowell -105 over Buescher (BM)

1 unit:
Allmendinger -120 over Suarez (BM)
 
He Hate Me said:
I added this, I am waiting to bet on Allmendinger over Busch, Chastain, and maybe Larson, but I want to see what Allmendinger matchups BM has before I do:

1 unit:
Jordan Taylor Top 10 +120 (Bovada)
Click to expand...
Dude was super fast. See what happens when in the actual race. But he's practiced a ton for this.
 
Anything you like in here? Such a great sports day, figure I'll tail your advice in NASCAR, not like DK offers much anyway but these are the matchups offered

1679847082616.png
 
I added:

1 unit:
Reddick Top 3 +110 (BM)
Gibbs -125 over Raikkonen (BAS)

0.5 units:
Allmendinger +135 over Chastain (BAS) I could not resist the better odds. I now have 1.5 units on this.
0.5 McDowell -105 over Buescher (BAS) I now have 4 units on this.

Here is what I have for today, all in one place:

5 units:
Jordan Taylor -115 over Keselowski (BetUS)

4 units:
McDowell -115 & -105 over Buescher (BAS, BetUS, & BM)

3 units:
Reddick -110 & -115 over Kyle Busch (Bovada & BAS)

2 units:
Reddick +120 & +100 over Chastain (Bovada & BetUS)
Logano -115 over Truex (BM)

1.5 units:
McDowell -105 & -120 over Briscoe (BetUS & BetUS)
Allmendinger +105 & +135 over Chastain (BAS)

1 unit:
Cindric -105 & -110 over Byron (BetUS & BAS)
McDowell +125 over Bowman (BAS)
Erik Jones -115 over Jimmie Johnson (BAS)
Gibbs -125 over Raikkonen (BAS)
Allmendinger -120 over Suarez (BM)
Allmendinger -105 over Kyle Busch (BetUS & BAS)
Jordan Taylor -125 over Harvick (BetUS)
Jordan Taylor Top 10 +120 (Bovada)
Reddick Top 3 +110 (BM)

0.5 units:
Suarez -105 over Byron (BetUS)
Bell +145 over Byron (BetUS)
Reddick +105 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
McDowell Top 10 +110 (Bovada)

$20 Reddick to win +405 (BM)
 
I don't know what Reddick's crew chief was thinking, but without the stage cautions, this was only a 2 stop race. That took any strategy out of the race. They have the best car and driver but will probably not win today because they will now need to pit 3 times.
 
He Hate Me said:
I don't know what Reddick's crew chief was thinking, but without the stage cautions, this was only a 2 stop race. That took any strategy out of the race. They have the best car and driver but will probably not win today because they will now need to pit 3 times.
Click to expand...
I think he's ok now, according to Chase and Busch? I'm only halfway paying attention
 
What a bad time for a caution. They can run 24 to 25 laps on a tank of fuel. There are 26 laps left.
 
He Hate Me said:
I added:

1 unit:
Reddick Top 3 +110 (BM)
Gibbs -125 over Raikkonen (BAS)

0.5 units:
Allmendinger +135 over Chastain (BAS) I could not resist the better odds. I now have 1.5 units on this.
0.5 McDowell -105 over Buescher (BAS) I now have 4 units on this.

Here is what I have for today, all in one place:

5 units:
Jordan Taylor -115 over Keselowski (BetUS)

4 units:
McDowell -115 & -105 over Buescher (BAS, BetUS, & BM)

3 units:
Reddick -110 & -115 over Kyle Busch (Bovada & BAS)

2 units:
Reddick +120 & +100 over Chastain (Bovada & BetUS)
Logano -115 over Truex (BM)

1.5 units:
McDowell -105 & -120 over Briscoe (BetUS & BetUS)
Allmendinger +105 & +135 over Chastain (BAS)

1 unit:
Cindric -105 & -110 over Byron (BetUS & BAS)
McDowell +125 over Bowman (BAS)
Erik Jones -115 over Jimmie Johnson (BAS)
Gibbs -125 over Raikkonen (BAS)
Allmendinger -120 over Suarez (BM)
Allmendinger -105 over Kyle Busch (BetUS & BAS)
Jordan Taylor -125 over Harvick (BetUS)
Jordan Taylor Top 10 +120 (Bovada)
Reddick Top 3 +110 (BM)

0.5 units:
Suarez -105 over Byron (BetUS)
Bell +145 over Byron (BetUS)
Reddick +105 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
McDowell Top 10 +110 (Bovada)

$20 Reddick to win +405 (BM)
Click to expand...
+0.96 units, horrible. I should have won 10 units.
 
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