HHM - NASCAR (2023)

[He Hate Me]

Fontana:
Cup:

3 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Briscoe (Bovada & BAS & Bovada)

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Preece (BAS & BetUS)

1.5 units:
Keselowski Top 10 +200 (Bovada 100) & +300 (BetUS 50)

1 unit:
Erik Jones +110 over Bowman (Bovada)
Erik Jones -125 over Suarez (BetUS & BAS)
Almirola -115 over Stenhouse (BetUS & BAS)
Larson -115 over Kyle Busch (BAS & BetUS)
Harvick Top 10 -105 (Bovada)
Blaney fade
Bell over Blaney -120 (BAS & BetUS)
Byron over Blaney +100 (BAS & BetUS)
Logano over Blaney -125 (BAS & BetUS)
Kyle Busch -115 over Blaney (Bovada)

0.5 units:
Reddick -115 over Chastain (Bovada)
Kyle Busch -115 over Bell (Bovada)
Erik Jones +220 to win Group D against Bubba, Austin Dillon, and Briscoe (Bovada)

I hope to use these to live bet on Bovada:
$10 Jones to win +2800 (BetUS)
$10 Keselowski +5000 (BM)


Xfinity:

2 units:
Sammy Smith -125 over Hemric (BAS & BetUS)

Fontana Cup:

+5.97 units

I still have a bet in the Xfinity race which will start in about 15 minutes.

 

[He Hate Me]

Well, that sucked.

Fontana:
Xfinity -2.5 units
Cup +5.97 units

2023:
Xfinity -4.6 units
Cup +1.55 units
Total -3.05 units

 

[He Hate Me]

These are my pre-qualifying and pre-practice Cup bets for Vegas:

1.5 units:

Austin Dillon -115 over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I added:

1 unit:
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)

 

[Dsn150]

BetUS has $50 limit on their matchups

 

[He Hate Me]

BetUS has $50 limit on their matchups

Yes until after practice and qualifying.
BAS has a $100 until after practice and qualifying.
That is why I can only bet 1.5 units on some things prior to race day.
Bovada is $250 max.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these:

1.5 units:
Truex -105 over Elliott (BAS & BetUS) (stolen from @VirginiaCavs )
Hamlin -120 over Elliott (BAS & BetUS)

I will probably also play this (also stolen from @VirginiaCavs ):
Hamlin -115 over Blaney (Bovada)
Blaney tends to qualify better than Hamlin so I am gonna wait until after qualifying to see if I can get better odds.

I also have Top 10 bets that I will wait on because last week I bet Keselowski Top 10 at Bovada at +200 and when BetUS put their Top 10s out he was +300 there. I still bet some at +300, but I would have bet more if I did not already have him at +200

I will probably play these at these odds or better:

Keselowski Top 10 +165
Austin Dillon Top 10 +165
Harvick Top 10 +110 (I don't like this one as much)

Going forward:

I like RCR and right now the value is in Austin Dillon as he is still matchuped against the lower tier drivers. If you followed last year, I bet on him a lot last year too. Kyle Busch is happy and he was not last year with everything going on with his contract, Ty Gibbs, etc, so he is performing better

I like that Keselowski appears to be on the upswing after a year of getting accustomed to being an owner and driver of a team new to him.

I like Harvick in his last season as he seems happier and not under pressure.

 

[He Hate Me]

Recap of my pre-qualifying and pre-practice Cup bets for Vegas:

1.5 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Truex -105 over Elliott (BAS & BetUS) (stolen from @VirginiaCavs )
Hamlin -120 over Elliott (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada)
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

Recap of my pre-qualifying and pre-practice Cup bets for Vegas:

1.5 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Truex -105 over Elliott (BAS & BetUS) (stolen from @VirginiaCavs )
Hamlin -120 over Elliott (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada)
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)

My bets against Chase Elliott will be cancelled:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631810267108765696

 

[CPA-hole]

What a dumb shit. Must be broken to already be having surgery. I'm guessing he'll be out awhile if that's the case.

 

[He Hate Me]

What a dumb shit. Must be broken to already be having surgery. I'm guessing he'll be out awhile if that's the case.

It will be interesting to see who Berry is matched up against in the Cup race. He is really good at Vegas.

 

[He Hate Me]

Vegas - Xfinity:

1 unit:
Berry +105 over JHN (BetUS)
Berry +105 over Custer (Bovada)
Berry Top 5 +110 (Bovada)
C Smith -115 over Reddick (Bovada)

$10 Josh Berry to win +800 (Bovada)

Berry is very good at Vegas, but he will start at the back.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added this as I was waiting on it thinking Harvick would not qualify as well as Reddick, but Reddick will start are the rear on Sunday, so I went ahead and bet it:

1.5 units:
Harvick -105 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)

My Vegas Cup bets without the Chase Elliott bets that were canceled:

1.5 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Harvick -105 over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada) This is now +115 so I must be missing something here.
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

Vegas - Xfinity:

1 unit:
Berry +105 over JHN (BetUS)
Berry +105 over Custer (Bovada)
Berry Top 5 +110 (Bovada)
C Smith -115 over Reddick (Bovada)

$10 Josh Berry to win +800 (Bovada)

Berry is very good at Vegas, but he will start at the back.

Las Vegas - Xfinity:

+4.1 units

 

[He Hate Me]

I have added these for the Vegas Cup race tomorrow:

1.5 units:
Chastain -105 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)
Buescher -115 over Cindric (BAS & BetUS)
Almirola -125 over Gragson (BAS & BetUS)

0.5 units:
Austin Dillon -130 over Briscoe (BAS) I now have 2 units on this at -115 and -130

$20 Chastain to win +960 (BM)

 

[He Hate Me]

Waiting for BM matchups, but I played these:

1 unit:
Hamlin Top Toyota +330 (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Harvick -125 over Reddick (Bovada) I now have 2 units on this at -105 and -125

I can get Hamlin +125 over Blaney at Bovada but I am gonna wait to see if BM has this matchup before I bet it.

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

2 units:
Harvick -115 over Bubba (BM)

1.5 units:
Larson -110 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Hamlin +125 over Blaney (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

It looks like people love Blaney this week. I am gonna be against him with Hamlin, Chastain, and Larson. I will add more to each. Blaney favored over Larson is crazy.

 

[Dsn150]

BetUS still limiting my bets to $50 per-
Do you know if and when they raise limits?

 

[He Hate Me]

BetUS still limiting my bets to $50 per-
Do you know if and when they raise limits?

Usually a few hours before the race they will go up to $500, so any time now.

 

[He Hate Me]

It looks like BetUS is now $500 max.

BAS is still $100 max, but they will raise it to $200 any time now.

 

[He Hate Me]

Putting all of my Vegas Cup bets in one place to see which bets I may add to:

2 units:
Harvick -115 over Bubba (BM)
Harvick (-105 & 0.5@-125) over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon (-115 & 0.5@-130) over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Larson -110 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)

1.5 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Chastain -105 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)
Buescher -115 over Cindric (BAS & BetUS)
Almirola -125 over Gragson (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada) This is now +105 so I must be missing something here.
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)
Hamlin +125 over Blaney (Bovada)
Hamlin Top Toyota +330 (BetUS)

$20 Chastain to win +960 (BM)

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

Harvick -115 over Reddick (BAS) This is now 3 units.

 

[CPA-hole]

Blaney seems snakebit. I'll keep fading him as well. GL today.

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

1 unit:
Harvick +103 over Bubba (BM) This is now 3 units with 2 units at -115.

I guess people love Bubba this week too. I kinda understand since he was good in practice and kinda got screwed in qualifying by going out early when the track was slow, but the same thing happened to Harvick. I guess people are also looking at Kansas, a similar track, where Bubba won once and finished 10th in the second race last year. The Toyota cars all ran unusually well in Kansas last year with 4 in the top 5 in one race and 5 of the top 6 in the other. In Vegas Toyota only had 3 in the Top 10 in both races last year and Kyle Busch was the top finishing Toyota in both races at Vegas, at a track he dominates.

Also, Harvick is great if he can get his car to hug the inner white line and stay low, which is what the good cars could do yesterday in the Xfinity race. Harvick was an announcer for the Xfinity race so he knows where his car needs to be good, which is down low where he likes it to be good.

 

[He Hate Me]

Blaney seems snakebit. I'll keep fading him as well. GL today.

I did not intend to fade Blaney today, it just kinda happened. He has been snakebit since last season, the first year of the new car. I think Larson and Chastain are the cars to beat today and Blaney is currently favored over both at some places.

I will add to Chastain over Blaney and maybe Larson over Blaney too.

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

0.5 units:

Chastain +104 over Blaney (BM) This is now 2 units.

Gonna wait to see if the BM odds move in my favor on a few of the matchups that I have already bet. Their matchups move up and down a lot just before the race.

Updated bets:

3 units:
Harvick (-115 & 1 unit at +103) over Bubba (BM)

2 units:
Harvick (-105 & 0.5@-125) over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon (-115 & 0.5@-130) over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Larson -110 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)
Chastain (-105 & 0.5 unit at +104) over Blaney (BAS, BetUS, & BM)

1.5 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Buescher -115 over Cindric (BAS & BetUS)
Almirola -125 over Gragson (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada) This is now +105 so I must be missing something here.
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)
Hamlin +125 over Blaney (Bovada)
Hamlin Top Toyota +330 (BetUS)

$20 Chastain to win +960 (BM)

 

[He Hate Me]

I also thought about Harrison Burton +120 over Haley. Pretty ridiculous line. Burton will be in a backup car, but it is a Penske car, which appear to be fast. Burton will have to start from the rear due to the backup car, but he will start 35th and Haley will start 27th. The only reason that I did not bet this is that there is no competition caution so it is more likely that Burton will go a lap down without one due to his starting position.

 

[He Hate Me]

I did not need that caution with 3 to go. Hamlin was the top Toyota, Chastian was in front of Blaney, Dillon was in front of Briscoe, and Harvick was in front of Reddick.

 

[He Hate Me]

I did not need that caution with 3 to go. Hamlin was the top Toyota, Chastian was in front of Blaney, Dillon was in front of Briscoe, and Harvick was in front of Reddick.

It looks like the only one that changed or that I lost was Hamlin top Toyota.

 

[He Hate Me]

Added:

0.5 units:

Chastain +104 over Blaney (BM) This is now 2 units.

Gonna wait to see if the BM odds move in my favor on a few of the matchups that I have already bet. Their matchups move up and down a lot just before the race.

Updated bets:

3 units:
Harvick (-115 & 1 unit at +103) over Bubba (BM)

2 units:
Harvick (-105 & 0.5@-125) over Reddick (BAS & BetUS)
Austin Dillon (-115 & 0.5@-130) over Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Larson -110 over Blaney (BAS & BetUS)
Chastain (-105 & 0.5 unit at +104) over Blaney (BAS, BetUS, & BM)

1.5 units:
Austin Dillon -115 over Erik Jones (BAS & BetUS)
Keselowski over -115 Briscoe (BAS & BetUS)
Buescher -115 over Cindric (BAS & BetUS)
Almirola -125 over Gragson (BAS & BetUS)

1 unit:
Erik Jones -110 over Bubba (Bovada) This is now +105 so I must be missing something here.
Kyle Bush Top 5 at +125 (Bovada)
Hamlin +125 over Blaney (Bovada)
Hamlin Top Toyota +330 (BetUS)

$20 Chastain to win +960 (BM)

I was wrong about Bubba.

Vegas Cup +2.32 units

 

[He Hate Me]

Vegas:
Xfinity +4.1 units
Cup +2.32 units

2023:
Xfinity -0.6 units
Cup +3.87 units
Total +3.27 units

 

[He Hate Me]

I played there post practive and before qualifying.
Also, as @CPA-hole posted in @VirginiaCavs thread, the Hendrick cars had their louvers confiscated after practice yesterday for testing. They were given new, unmodified louvers to use on Sunday.

2 units:

Briscoe Top 10 (even) (Bovada)

1 unit:
Briscoe +125 over Byron (Bovada)
Hamlin -115 over Bell (Bovada)

$10 Keselowski to win +5000 (BetUS)

 

[He Hate Me]

Blaney, Logano, Larson, Briscoe, Harvick, and somehow Steinhouse looked good in practice

Chastain and Kyle Busch did not look good in practice.

 

[CPA-hole]

I played there post practive and before qualifying. Also, as @CPA-hole posted in @VirginiaCavs thread, the Hendrick cars had their louvers confiscated after practice yesterday for testing. They were given new, unmodified louvers to use on Sunday.

2 units:

Briscoe Top 10 (even) (Bovada)

1 unit:
Briscoe +125 over Byron (Bovada)
Hamlin -115 over Bell (Bovada)

$10 Keselowski to win +5000 (BetUS)

I have no idea what to do with this race but I played:

Austin Dillon and Ty Gibbs both -115 over Josh Berry from BetUS. Surprised they had Berry in matchups. He should fare a bit better this week but that's a tough ask.

 

[He Hate Me]

Also:

0.5 unit:

Ford to win +155

 

[CPA-hole]

Also:

0.5 unit:

Ford to win +155

Nice value IMO. Toyotas were way slow in practice and say the 3 Hendrick contenders lose a smidge with their cars now, then Fords should be favored. Qualifying will be telling.

 

[CPA-hole]

Welp. Hendricks are still super fast.

 

[He Hate Me]

Welp. Hendricks are still super fast.

Yes, Larson and Byron are.

 

[He Hate Me]

I have played these for the Xfinity race so far:

1 unit:

Custer -105 over JHN (Bovada)
Sammy Smith -115 over Brandon Jones (Bovada)

 

[He Hate Me]

I also bet these for the Xfinity race, BetUS still has a low limit for some reason:

0.5 unit:
Hemric -125 over Kligerman (BetUS)
Ryan Sieg +110 over Kligerman (BetUS)

Kligerman wrecked in qualifying and will go to a backup car and start at the rear.

 

[CPA-hole]

I also bet these for the Xfinity race, BetUS still has a low limit for some reason:

0.5 unit:
Hemric -125 over Kligerman (BetUS)
Ryan Sieg +110 over Kligerman (BetUS)

Kligerman wrecked in qualifying and will go to a backup car and start at the rear.

I just bet Austin Hill +110 over Ryan Truex. Price seemed weird. Truex hasn't raced since last May. Did qualify well though.

Good price for you on Sammy Smith. Jones has been trash in his debut with JRM.

 

[He Hate Me]

One more that BetUS added:

0.5 unit:

Retzlaff +110 over Alfredo (BetUS)
Hemrick -125 over Kligerman (BetUS)

Also: $10 on Custer to win at +450 (BM)

Summary of Xfinity bets:

1 unit:
Custer -105 over JHN (Bovada)
Sammy Smith -115 over Brandon Jones (Bovada)
Hemric -125 over Kligerman (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Ryan Sieg +110 over Kligerman (BetUS)
Retzlaff +110 over Alfredo (BetUS)

$10 Custer to win +450 (BM)

 

[He Hate Me]

And BAS finally put up their lines:

0.5 unit:
Hemrick -125 over Kligerman (BAS)
Retzlaff +135 over Alfredo (BAS)

Summary of Xfinity bets:

1.5 units:
Hemric -125 over Kligerman (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Custer -105 over JHN (Bovada)
Sammy Smith -115 over Brandon Jones (Bovada)
Retzlaff +110&+135 over Alfredo (BetUS & BAS)

0.5 unit:
Ryan Sieg +110 over Kligerman (BetUS)

$10 Custer to win +450 (BM)

 

[He Hate Me]

Custer went to +550 to win at BM so I added $10 to it.
I now have Custer $20 to win $100

 

[He Hate Me]

And BAS finally put up their lines:

0.5 unit:
Hemrick -125 over Kligerman (BAS)
Retzlaff +135 over Alfredo (BAS)

Summary of Xfinity bets:

1.5 units:
Hemric -125 over Kligerman (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Custer -105 over JHN (Bovada)
Sammy Smith -115 over Brandon Jones (Bovada)
Retzlaff +110&+135 over Alfredo (BetUS & BAS)

0.5 unit:
Ryan Sieg +110 over Kligerman (BetUS)

$10 Custer to win +450 (BM)

-0.25 units

 

[CPA-hole]

I just bet Austin Hill +110 over Ryan Truex. Price seemed weird. Truex hasn't raced since last May. Did qualify well though.

Good price for you on Sammy Smith. Jones has been trash in his debut with JRM.

That's why I rarely post plays on here because every one loses. Hill was ahead of Truex the whole race until the last 8 laps.

Sammy is the real deal. He'll win more this year.

GL today, Sir.

 

[He Hate Me]

I added these last night and this morning:

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (Bovada)

1 unit:
Cindric -125 over Preece (BetUS & BAS)
Blaney -110 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Briscoe -115 over Bowman (BetUS & BAS)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe to win Group G +350 over Bowman, Suarez, and Bubba (Bovada)
Erik Jones -115 over Austin Dillon (BetUS) (This is now -140 so I doubt I will add more)

 

[He Hate Me]

I have some bad odds on my early Briscoe bets since he did not qualify well.
Hopefully, he is far enough from the rear to not go a lap down in Stage 1, but as good as Larson looked he is vulnerable.
Almirola and Austin Dillon are starting 30 and 31 so it will be hard for them to not go a lap down in Stage 1 unless there are lots of cautions.
Preece is also vulnerable starting 25th, one spot behind Briscoe.

Here are my pre-qualifying bets:

2 units:

Briscoe Top 10 (even) (Bovada) (This is now +125 which I think is a good bet)

1 unit:
Briscoe +125 over Byron (Bovada) (This is now +180, but I would not bet this now based on how strong Byron looked)
Hamlin -115 over Bell (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Ford to win +155 (This is now +200, but I would not bet it because I did not think Toyota to look good in practice and qualifying)

$10 Keselowski to win +5000 (BetUS)

 

[He Hate Me]

I have added a few and unless I add more to the 2 unit plays or the lines change a lot this is probably all that I will have today:

2 units:
Keselowski -115 over Bubba (Bovada)
Briscoe Top 10 (even) (Bovada) (This is now +125 which I think is a good bet)

1 unit:
Cindric -125 over Preece (BetUS & BAS)
Blaney -110 over Bell (BetUS & BAS)
Briscoe -115 over Bowman (BetUS & BAS)
Briscoe +125 over Byron (Bovada) (This is now +180, but I still would not bet this now based on how strong Byron looked)
Hamlin -115 over Bell (Bovada)
Erik Jones -115 &-130 over Austin Dillon (BetUS)
Erik Jones -110 over Ty Gibbs (BetUS & BAS)
Stenhouse +155 over McDowell (BetUS & BAS)
Keselowski Top 10 +135 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Briscoe to win Group G +350 over Bowman, Suarez, and Bubba (Bovada)
Keselowski to win Group D +270 over Reddick, Suarez, and Bubba (BetUS)
Ford to win +155 (This is now +200 to +290, but I would not bet it because I did not expect the Toyota cars to look good in practice and qualifying)

$10 Keselowski to win +5000 (BetUS)